The Morning Call---The zero risk illusion

 

The Morning Call

 

 

 

The Market

         

    Technical

 

            Monday in the charts.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/market-recaps/everything-bid

 

            More charts.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/wrap-they-puked-low-now-its-melt-mode

 

            Monday in the technical stats.

            https://www.barchart.com/stocks/momentum

            https://www.barchart.com/stocks/sectors/rankings

            https://www.barchart.com/stocks/signals/new-recommendations

 

            The latest from Goldman’s desk.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/2025-stands-out-goldman-sentiment-signal-turns-red-stocks-record-highs

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/markets-remain-remarkably-resilient-top-goldman-trader-says-geopolitics-arent-problem

                        https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/if-you-want-be-serious-bear-right-now

           

            Margin debt jumps to record high.

            https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2025/10/20/margin-debt-finra-jumps-new-record-high-september-2025

 

            Silver’s melt up meets gravity.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/silvers-melt-meets-gravity-partys-over

 

            Gold euphoria turns dangerous.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/enough-enough-golds-euphoria-turns-dangerous

 

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

 

                        International

 

                        Other

 

                          Alternative data during shutdown.

                          https://www.apolloacademy.com/alternative-data-during-the-shutdown-2/

 

                          Estimated initial jobless claims are lower than last year.

                          https://bonddad.blogspot.com/2025/10/initial-claims-lower-than-one-year-ago.html

 

            Monetary Policy

 

              Will Friday’s delayed CPI report derail the expected October rate cut?

              https://www.capitalspectator.com/will-fridays-delayed-cpi-report-derail-another-rate-cut/

 

            Tariffs

 

              Trade wars have undermined the dollar exchange system.

              https://www.realclearmarkets.com/articles/2025/10/20/trade_wars_have_undermined_the_dollar_exchange_system_1141841.html

 

            The Financial System

 

              The Tricolor debacle is not a sign of a weakened consumer.

 https://wolfstreet.com/2025/10/17/ai-powered-tricolor-and-its-mushroom-cloud-of-fraud-allegations-are-a-sign-greedy-lenders-closed-their-eyes-for-years-not-a-sign-consumers-are-cracking-or-whatever/

 

                          How bad is it?

              https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/ndfis-are-new-alt-bofa-warns-forced-selling-if-private-credit-issues-persist-it-really-bad

 

            Geopolitics

 

              US/Australia sign major rare earths deal.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/commodities/rare-earths-stocks-soar-after-mega-us-australia-minerals-deal-slash-dependence-china

 

     Investing

 

            Real time bubble check list.

            https://ritholtz.com/2025/10/realtime-bubble-checklist/

 

A bad sign for the stock market (the author fails to note that investors have been BTFD since the 2009 low).

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/this-is-a-bad-sign-for-the-stock-market-3c069d3b?st=xatmMm

 

            The zero risk illusion.

            https://www.advisorperspectives.com/commentaries/2025/10/20/psychology-investing-zero-risk-illusion

 

            The latest from the Portfolio Strategist.

            https://etfps.substack.com/p/the-etf-portfolio-strategist-19-oct

 

            Speculative bull run and the value of a bearish tilt.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/speculative-bull-runs-and-value-bearish-tilt

 

            Three retirement mistakes to avoid.

            https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/personalfinance/retirement/2025/10/19/retirement-savings-mistakes/86724095007/

 

            A gold attribution model.

            https://mrzepczynski.blogspot.com/2025/10/gold-not-following-fundamental-model.html

 

            Is the gold correction over?

            https://www.zerohedge.com/precious-metals/doe-gold-correction-have-more-run

 

            Crypto world warning.

            https://thehill.com/opinion/finance/5548075-crypto-rug-pull-warning/

 

            Counterpoint.

                        https://www.riskhedge.com/outplacement/cryptos-latest-victim-is/rcm?utm_campaign=RH-144&utm_content=RH144OP824&utm_medium=ED&utm_source=rcm

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

 

 

What I am reading today

 

           

 

 

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