The Morning Call
10/28/25
The
Market
Technical
Monday in the
charts.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/gold-tests-4000-big-tech-bitcoin-rally-china-deal-hope
Monday in the technical stats.
https://www.barchart.com/stocks/momentum
https://www.barchart.com/stocks/sectors/rankings
https://www.barchart.com/stocks/signals/new-recommendations
The latest from Goldman’s
desk.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/goldmans-tech-traders-brace-huge-week
Stocks poised for
a slingshot higher.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/sp-less-1-away-gamma-slingshot-higher
Gold craters as
retail investors pull money from commodity ETFs.
https://sherwood.news/markets/gold-craters-as-retail-traders-pull-money-from-commodity-etfs/
Fundamental
Headlines
The
Economy
US
New ADP private
payrolls report showed last week job increases of 24,100.
https://www.zerohedge.com/personal-finance/new-adp-employment-report-signals-rebound-labor-market
The October Dallas Fed
manufacturing index was -5 versus forecasts of -2.
International
The November German
consumer confidence index was -24.1 versus expectations of -23.0.
Other
Interpolating the trend in jobless claims.
https://bonddad.blogspot.com/2025/10/tabulated-state-initial-and-continuing.html
Overnight
News
Japan revealed
potential projects for its $550 billion US investment fund, including ventures
by SoftBank, Toshiba, and Westinghouse in AI, energy and critical minerals. The
US will decide which projects will make the cut.
The nation’s
largest federal workers’ union called for Congress to end the shutdown, now in
its fourth week, putting new pressure on Senate Democrats who have repeatedly
blocked a Republican measure that would reopen the government.
The Federal
Reserve is expected to end a 3 year phase of quantitative tightening this week,
easing pressures on banks amid concerns that funding is getting too tight in
money markets:
Monetary
Policy
Trampling on dollarization and the Federal
Reserve.
‘We could have stopped sooner’ isn’t good
enough.
The case for ending QT.
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/10/27/business/federal-reserve-balance-sheet-tightening.html
Fiscal
Policy
Debt cycles.
https://www.advisorperspectives.com/commentaries/2025/10/27/eastern-style-debt-cycles
Inflation
The
K shaped CPI report.
https://www.briefing.com/the-big-picture
Food inflation.
https://wolfstreet.com/2025/10/24/food-inflation-the-price-spikes-of-beef-coffee-eggs-and-dairy/
The range of acceptable collateral is
shrinking.
The
Financial System
Private loan credit ratings may be inflated.
https://www.ft.com/content/9d1f4e49-5edc-4815-9efb-d4ef41756d72
The danger in narrowing credit spreads.
The coming AI debt deluge.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/coming-ai-debt-deluge
Tariffs
The
sleeper issue in Trump’s trade war.
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/10/25/business/trump-tariffs-southeast-asia-transshipment.html
Investing
How to dodge ‘dud’
disruptors (ignore the sales routine).
The bond market remains
on track for higher prices (lower yields).
https://www.capitalspectator.com/us-bond-market-remains-on-track-for-strong-bull-run-in-2025/
When is the Minsky Moment?
https://talkmarkets.com/content/stocks--equities/weekly-market-pulse-wanna-bet?post=530790
The most dangerous
era in history.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/most-dangerous-era-history
The bull case for
gold.
News on Stocks in Our Portfolios
Sherwin
Williams press
release (NYSE:SHW): Q3 Non-GAAP EPS of $3.59 beats
by $0.15.
Revenue of
$6.36B (+3.2% Y/Y) beats by $160M.
UPS press
release (NYSE:UPS): Q3 Non-GAAP EPS of $1.74 beats
by $0.44.
Revenue of
$21.4B (-3.6% Y/Y) beats by $560M.
What
I am reading today
Ten
questions to answer before you die.
https://hellomortal.substack.com/p/10-questions-to-answer-before-you?ref=newsletter.weeklyfilet.com
Ten
things Warren Buffett does differently.
Visit Investing
for Survival’s website (http://investingforsurvival.com/home)
to learn more about our Investment Strategy, Prices Disciplines and Subscriber
Service.
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