Tuesday, October 28, 2025

The Morning Call--When is the Minsky Moment?

 

The Morning Call

 

10/28/25

 

The Market

         

    Technical

 

            Monday in the charts.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/gold-tests-4000-big-tech-bitcoin-rally-china-deal-hope

 

                Monday in the technical stats.

            https://www.barchart.com/stocks/momentum

            https://www.barchart.com/stocks/sectors/rankings

            https://www.barchart.com/stocks/signals/new-recommendations

 

            The latest from Goldman’s desk.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/goldmans-tech-traders-brace-huge-week

 

            Stocks poised for a slingshot higher.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/sp-less-1-away-gamma-slingshot-higher

 

            Gold craters as retail investors pull money from commodity ETFs.

            https://sherwood.news/markets/gold-craters-as-retail-traders-pull-money-from-commodity-etfs/

 

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

 

New ADP private payrolls report showed last week job increases of 24,100.

                          https://www.zerohedge.com/personal-finance/new-adp-employment-report-signals-rebound-labor-market

 

                          The October Dallas Fed manufacturing index was -5 versus forecasts of -2.

                          https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2025/10/27/dallas-fed-manufacturing-business-conditions-worsen-october-2025

 

                        International

 

The November German consumer confidence index was -24.1 versus expectations of -23.0.

 

                        Other

 

                          Interpolating the trend in jobless claims.

                          https://bonddad.blogspot.com/2025/10/tabulated-state-initial-and-continuing.html

 

            Overnight News

 

Japan revealed potential projects for its $550 billion US investment fund, including ventures by SoftBank, Toshiba, and Westinghouse in AI, energy and critical minerals. The US will decide which projects will make the cut.

 

The nation’s largest federal workers’ union called for Congress to end the shutdown, now in its fourth week, putting new pressure on Senate Democrats who have repeatedly blocked a Republican measure that would reopen the government.

 

The Federal Reserve is expected to end a 3 year phase of quantitative tightening this week, easing pressures on banks amid concerns that funding is getting too tight in money markets:

 

            Monetary Policy

 

              Trampling on dollarization and the Federal Reserve.

              https://www.forbes.com/sites/johntamny/2025/10/26/wall-street-and-china-trample-on-dollarization-and-the-federal-reserve/

 

              ‘We could have stopped sooner’ isn’t good enough.

              https://www.realclearmarkets.com/articles/2025/10/27/jerome_powells_we_could_have_stopped_sooner_isnt_good_enough_1143246.html

 

              The case for ending QT.

              https://www.nytimes.com/2025/10/27/business/federal-reserve-balance-sheet-tightening.html

 

            Fiscal Policy

 

              Debt cycles.

              https://www.advisorperspectives.com/commentaries/2025/10/27/eastern-style-debt-cycles

 

            Inflation

 

              The K shaped CPI report.

              https://www.briefing.com/the-big-picture

           

              Food inflation.

              https://wolfstreet.com/2025/10/24/food-inflation-the-price-spikes-of-beef-coffee-eggs-and-dairy/

 

              The range of acceptable collateral is shrinking.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/hedge-fund-cio-we-return-law-jungle-range-accepted-collateral-collapsing

 

            The Financial System

 

              Private loan credit ratings may be inflated.

              https://www.ft.com/content/9d1f4e49-5edc-4815-9efb-d4ef41756d72

 

              The danger in narrowing credit spreads.

              https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2025-10-27/ai-bubble-the-real-danger-to-markets-is-tight-credit-spreads?sref=loFkkPMQ

 

              The coming AI debt deluge.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/coming-ai-debt-deluge

 

            Tariffs

 

              The sleeper issue in Trump’s trade war.

              https://www.nytimes.com/2025/10/25/business/trump-tariffs-southeast-asia-transshipment.html

 

     Investing

 

            How to dodge ‘dud’ disruptors (ignore the sales routine).

https://www.riskhedge.com/outplacement/how-to-dodge-dud-disruptors-a-5-point-checklist/rcm?utm_campaign=RH-144&utm_content=RH144OP826&utm_medium=ED&utm_source=rcm

 

            The bond market remains on track for higher prices (lower yields).

            https://www.capitalspectator.com/us-bond-market-remains-on-track-for-strong-bull-run-in-2025/

 

            When is the Minsky Moment?

            https://talkmarkets.com/content/stocks--equities/weekly-market-pulse-wanna-bet?post=530790

 

            The most dangerous era in history.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/most-dangerous-era-history

 

            The bull case for gold.

            https://talkmarkets.com/content/commodities/gold-pulls-back-as-us-china-trade-optimism-and-softer-inflation-weigh-on-safe-haven-demand?post=530686

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

Sherwin Williams press release (NYSE:SHW): Q3 Non-GAAP EPS of $3.59 beats by $0.15.

Revenue of $6.36B (+3.2% Y/Y) beats by $160M.

 

UPS press release (NYSE:UPS): Q3 Non-GAAP EPS of $1.74 beats by $0.44.

Revenue of $21.4B (-3.6% Y/Y) beats by $560M.

 

 

What I am reading today

 

            Ten questions to answer before you die.

            https://hellomortal.substack.com/p/10-questions-to-answer-before-you?ref=newsletter.weeklyfilet.com

 

            Ten things Warren Buffett does differently.

            https://www.realclearmarkets.com/articles/2025/10/27/ten_things_that_warren_buffet_does_differently_1142994.html

 

 

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