Friday, June 30, 2023

The Morning Call---More tightening to come

 

The Morning Call

 

6/30/23

 

The Market

         

    Technical

 

            Thursday in the charts.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/rate-hike-odds-spike-after-strong-gdp-bonds-big-tech-battered

 

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

                           

                            May pending home sales were down 2.7% versus estimates of -0.5%.

                            https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2023/06/29/pending-home-sales-fall-third-straight-month

                                                       

May personal income rose 0.4% versus expectations of +0.3%; May personal spending was up 0.1% versus +0.2%.

 

The May PCE price index was 0.1% versus consensus of +0.2%; the core PCE price index was +0.3%, in line.

 

                        International

                           

                            Final Q1 UK GDP growth was +0.1%, in line.

 

The May Japanese unemployment rate was 2.6%, in line; May preliminary industrial production fell 1.6% versus -1.0%; May YoY housing start were up 3.5% versus -2.2%; May YoY construction orders were up 4.2% versus +7.0%; June CPI was 3.1% versus 3.2% core CPI was 3.2% versus 3.3%.

 

May German retail sales were up 0.4% versus projections of 0.0%; the June unemployment rate was 5.7% versus 5.6%.

 

The May EU unemployment rate was 6.5%, in line; the May flash CPI was +0.3%, also in line.

 

The June Chinese manufacturing PMI was 49.0, in line; the nonmanufacturing PMI was 53.2 versus 53.0; the composite PMI was 52.3 versus 52.0.

 

                        Other

 

            The Fed

 

              Powell leaves open the possibility of rate hikes at consecutive meetings.

  https://www.cnbc.com/2023/06/28/powell-say-more-restriction-is-coming-including-possibility-of-hikes-at-consecutive-meetings.html?utm_campaign=What%20I%20Am%20Reading&utm_medium=email&_hsmi=264344851&_hsenc=p2ANqtz-9ZSQo6P6snxWqxyTQqChJKGmdq2R5Nux52QKj0AE1qYZ7XxLP_FviIcsT_VOGQNlwO6CdNNfU2tyg1_KhZbxl-c3_KKA&utm_content=264344851&utm_source=hs_email

 

 

              M2 update---no reason to worry.

              http://scottgrannis.blogspot.com/2023/06/m2-update-no-reason-to-worry.html

 

              The Bank of England forced into overtightening.

              https://www.advisorperspectives.com/commentaries/2023/06/29/bank-of-england-markets-inflation-bond

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

Paychex press release (NASDAQ:PAYX): Q4 Non-GAAP EPS of $0.97 in-line.

Revenue of $1.23B (+7.9% Y/Y) beats by $10M.

 

What I am reading today

 

            The fall of Meghan and Harry.

https://www.thefp.com/p/the-fall-of-meghan-and-harry-inc?utm_source=post-email-title&publication_id=260347&post_id=131770941&isFreemail=true&utm_medium=email

 

 

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Thursday, June 29, 2023

The Morning Call---The return to quantitative easing

 

The Morning Call

 

6/29/23

 

The Market

         

    Technical

 

            Wednesday in the charts.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/bonds-dollar-pop-banks-tech-drop-powell-flexes-hawkishly

 

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

                    

                        US

 

Weekly initial jobless claims totaled 239,000 versus projections of 265,000.

 

Final Q2 GDP growth was +2.0% versus consensus of +1.4%; final Q2 corporate profits were down 5.9% versus -6.8%; final Q2 real consumer spending was +4.2% versus +3.8%; the final Q2 PCE price index was +4.9% versus +5.0%.

                          https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/q1-gdp-unexpectedly-revised-sharply-higher-bizarre-surge-net-exports

 

The May trade balance was -$91.1 billion versus forecasts of -$91.0 billion.

 

                        International

                           

May Japanese retail sales were up 1.3% versus predictions of +0.7%; the June consumer confidence index was 36.2, in line.

 

                            June German CPI was up 0.3% versus estimates of +0.2%.

 

The June EU economic sentiment index was 95.3 versus expectations of 96.0; the June industrial sentiment index was -7.2 versus -5.5; the June services sentiment index was 5.7 versus 5.5; the June consumer confidence index was -16.1, in line.

 

                        Other

 

The Fed

 

  The return to quantitative easing (must read).

  https://www.ft.com/content/6d14cad1-00f2-4d39-969f-c01ae1860d34

 

  The impact of Fed policy on services inflation.

  https://www.cato.org/blog/americans-should-not-expect-fed-lower-services-inflation

 

  Are interest rates the true reflection of monetary policy?

  https://www.themoneyillusion.com/but-the-lags/

 

  LaGarde: ECB likely to raise rates in July.

  https://www.wsj.com/articles/ecb-likely-to-hike-rates-in-july-says-lagarde-c5d6ba47?mod=economy_lead_pos2&utm_campaign=What%20I%20Am%20Reading&utm_medium=email&_hsmi=264171285&_hsenc=p2ANqtz-9uP6xdaaQrhtn39dyYWqrN7-Dgi6j1JvYWqxc5XUIsJC4LG1Yh3V5g3PP8N_timKEH_UzfYfMIX31YUE28q-Wh19Jtyw&utm_content=264171285&utm_source=hs_email

 

  M1 shrinking in EU.

  https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/money-trends-europe-leave-ecbs-renewed-hawkishness-doubt

 

Fiscal Policy

 

  The $4 trillion problem.

  https://www.axios.com/2023/06/26/president-2025-trump-biden-tax-health-care-debt

 

Inflation

 

  The accounting behind ‘greedflation’.

  https://politicalcalculations.blogspot.com/2023/06/skiffy-greedflation.html

 

            Recession

 

              Redefining recession.

              https://www.heritage.org/markets-and-finance/commentary/the-treasury-secretarys-own-definition-were-back-recession

 

              Nouriel Roubini: A mild global contraction is coming.

  https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/global-economic-outlook-implications-for-equities-bonds-by-nouriel-roubini-2023-06?utm_source=project-syndicate.org&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=authnote&

 

  Credit spreads and bankruptcies are increasingly at odds.

  https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/credit-spreads-and-real-economy-are-increasingly-odds

 

The Banking System

 

  All big banks pass the latest Fed ‘stress test’.

  https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/surprise-fed-says-all-big-banks-passed-stress-tests

 

     Bottom line

 

            The only thing we have to fear is fear itself.

            https://allstarcharts.com/fear/

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

What I am reading today

 

            The courage to stand out.

            https://neckar.substack.com/p/the-courage-to-stand-out-sam-zells

 

            The alarming decline of K-12 education.

            https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2023/06/28/education-decline-campaign-issue/

 

Visit Investing for Survival’s website (http://investingforsurvival.com/home) to learn more about our Investment Strategy, Prices Disciplines and Subscriber Service.

 

 

 

Wednesday, June 28, 2023

The Morning Call--Is this yield curve inversion different?

The Morning Call

 

6/28/23

 

The Market

         

    Technical

 

            Tuesday in the charts.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/stocks-soar-strong-data-batters-bonds-bullion-sparks-hawkish-shift-rate-hike-odds

 

            The stock market isn’t as calm as it seems.

            https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-stock-market-isnt-as-calm-as-it-seems-3713180c

 

            Key market price ratios suggest the risk-on trade persists.

            https://www.capitalspectator.com/key-market-price-ratios-still-suggest-risk-on-bias-persists/

 

Bull trap or bull market?

Bull Trap Or A Bull Market? (realinvestmentadvice.com)

 

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

 

  Weekly mortgage applications were up 3.0% while purchase applications were up 2.8%.

                       

   Month to date retail chain store sales were much weaker than in the prior week.

 

 The April Case Shiller home price index was up 1.7% versus expectations   of +1.5%.

  https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2023/06/27/s-p-case-shiller-home-price-index-continued-gains-in-april

 

  May new home sales were up 12.2% versus predictions of -1.7%.

  https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2023/06/27/new-home-sales-surge-fastest-pace-over-year

 

  June consumer confidence came in at 109.7 versus estimates of 104.0.

 

  The June Richmond Fed manufacturing index was -7 versus consensus of   -10.

                           https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2023/06/27/richmond-fed-manufacturing-activity-relatively-flat-june

 

                         International

                      

   June German consumer confidence was reported at -25.4 versus   projections of -23.0.

 

                        Other

 

The Fed

 

  Markets are pricing in rate cuts too soon.

  https://www.cnbc.com/2023/06/27/imf-gopinath-central-banks-will-have-to-hold-rates-high-for-much-longer-.html

 

Inflation

 

  Inflation is proving persistent in the eurozone.

  https://www.nytimes.com/2023/06/27/business/christine-lagarde-inflation-central-banks.html

 

            Recession

 

              What recession?

              https://ritholtz.com/2023/06/what-recession/

 

              Is this yield curve inversion different?

              https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/treasury-yield-curves-inversion-different

 

              This analyst warns recession is coming this year.

              https://www.cnbc.com/2023/06/27/hsbc-global-economies-are-out-of-sync-2024-will-be-a-year-of-contraction.html

 

            The Banking System

 

  Banks will suffer 2008-type losses if inflation isn’t controlled.

  https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/banking-crisis-2008-recession-bank-failures-financial-crash-bis-2023-6

 

              Banks face increased scrutiny in the upcoming stress test.

              https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-06-27/banks-face-growing-capital-scrutiny-with-stress-tests-up-first?sref=loFkkPMQ

 

    Bottom line.

 

            Correction?

            https://alhambrapartners.com/2023/06/25/weekly-market-pulse-correction/

 

            The bull market is just getting started.

            https://www.wsj.com/articles/this-bull-market-is-just-getting-started-traders-bet-bd9fd930

 

            Are the ‘magnificent seven’ too expensive now?

            https://www.morningstar.com/markets/markets-brief-magnificent-seven-stocks-have-driven-rally-are-they-too-expensive-now

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

 

What I am reading today

 

           

What happened to the bodies when the Titanic submersible imploded?

https://townhall.com/tipsheet/mattvespa/2023/06/26/what-happened-to-the-bodies-of-those-killed-in-the-titanic-submersible-implosion-n2625013

 

What happened in Russia?

https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/escobar-russias-coup-gate-putin-wins-all-counts

 

            Quote of the day.

            https://cafehayek.com/2023/06/bonus-quotation-of-the-day-947.html

 

Visit Investing for Survival’s website (http://investingforsurvival.com/home) to learn more about our Investment Strategy, Prices Disciplines and Subscriber Service.

 

 

 


Tuesday, June 27, 2023

The Morning Call---Parabolic usually ends in tears

 

The Morning Call

 

6/27/23

 

The Market

         

    Technical

 

Monday in the charts.

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/value-dramatically-outperforms-growth-bonds-bitcoin-slide

 

Beware of massive month end pension fund rebalancing selling.

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/one-top-20-our-data-set-banks-warn-massive-month-end-pension-rebalance-selling-week

 

Time to hedge rate risk.

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/seize-moment-inflation-calm-hedge-rate-risk

 

Parabolic usually ends in tears.

https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/parabolic-usually-ends-tears

 

This argument for a higher Market is almost exactly the same as other posted articles that argue for a lower Market.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/this-bull-market-is-just-getting-started-traders-bet-bd9fd930?mod=hp_lead_pos1&utm_campaign=What%20I%20Am%20Reading&utm_medium=email&_hsmi=263986392&_hsenc=p2ANqtz-9tNxRkQny781sc8Nfcwza0upi_2PJdVw-uab0SPr5vRvAKj_eRGfK984GKNXf7RCDkKLo3Fgs8-u2A6OPckWXkDwkvYg&utm_content=263986392&utm_source=hs_email

                       

                        A strong first half usually means a strong second half.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-06-25/where-stock-market-is-headed-after-wild-first-half-five-charts?srnd=premium&leadSource=uverify%20wall&sref=loFkkPMQ

 

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

 

                          May building permits rose 5.6% versus estimates of +5.2%.

 

May durable goods orders were up 1.7% versus projections of -1.0%; ex transportation, they were up 0.6% versus -1.0%.

                           

The June Dallas Fed manufacturing index came in at -23.2 versus consensus of -26.5.              

     https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2023/06/26/dallas-fed-manufacturing-business-conditions-remain-negative-fourteenth-straight-month

 

                        International

 

                        Other

 

                          Update on four high frequency indicators.

                          https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2023/06/update-on-four-high-frequency-indicators.html

 

                          BIS warns global economy at critical juncture.

                          https://finance.yahoo.com/news/bis-warns-world-economy-critical-090517941.html

                       

                          The misery index is falling fast.

                          https://www.axios.com/2023/06/26/misery-index-falling-fast

 

     Recession

 

              Corporate bankruptcies are surging.

              https://www.cnbc.com/2023/06/24/high-interest-rates-economic-uncertainty-boost-corporate-defaults.html

 

  Private commercial real estate---the next time bomb.

  https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/private-commercial-real-estate-how-and-when-markets-next-time-bomb-goes

 

              China’s economic gloom worsens.

              https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-06-26/china-s-soft-spending-data-signals-more-warning-signs-for-growth?srnd=premium&sref=loFkkPMQ

 

    Bottom line

 

            Beware speculating in AI.

            https://www.advisorperspectives.com/commentaries/2023/06/26/technology-income-a-i-stock

 

Morgan Stanley warns, again.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-06-26/morgan-stanley-s-wilson-says-stock-risks-have-rarely-been-higher-ljcjlbkk?srnd=premium&leadSource=uverify%20wall&sref=loFkkPMQ

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

 

 

What I am reading today

 

            The sounds of invisible worlds.

            https://www.noemamag.com/the-sounds-of-invisible-worlds/

 

            Quote of the day.

            https://cafehayek.com/2023/06/quotation-of-the-day-4308.html

 

 

Visit Investing for Survival’s website (http://investingforsurvival.com/home) to learn more about our Investment Strategy, Prices Disciplines and Subscriber Service.