The Morning Call
4/22/26
The
Market
Technical
Tuesday in the
charts.
Summary:
two things seemed to be driving markets today - anxiety over the looming
Iran ceasefire deadline (and on-again, off-again talks) and Fed
Chair nominee Warsh's hearing (which leaned a little more hawkish than
many expected). The result of all that (including strong macro data)
was higher oil, higher bond yields, lower rate-cut expectations, lower stocks,
and gold hammered.
Tuesday in the
technical stats.
https://www.barchart.com/stocks/momentum
https://www.barchart.com/stocks/market-performance
https://www.barchart.com/stocks/sectors/rankings
https://www.barchart.com/stocks/signals/new-recommendations
Crowded upside; empty downside.
https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/crowded-upside-empty-downside
Summary: The squeeze is
still on, but the tape is starting to feel a bit tired. Price is pushing, but
the underlying signals aren’t confirming.
This
isn’t about calling a top… but this is typically where moves start getting more
fragile and risk-reward shifts from chasing to managing exposure. Not a top call… but this is
where you start owning downside.
Wednesday morning
setup: Futures are higher with earnings in full swing and AI winners soaring.
Trump indefinitely extended the ceasefire with Iran just before
its Taco Tuesday expiration, while maintaining a blockade of the Strait of
Hormuz, after plans for peace talks fell apart. Still, the market doesn’t seem
too concerned about the lack of a resolution, and is instead focused on a
Tasnim report that Iran had received "some signs" the US was ready to
break the blockade. As of 8:00am, S&P futures were up 0.6%, rebounding from
two days of declines; Nasdaq futures gained 0.7% with all Mag 7 names trading
higher in the premarket. The VIX traded around 19. Overnight, Brent briefly
climbed above $100 a barrel as talks earmarked for Islamabad failed to take
place, leaving the Strait of Hormuz mostly shut. Tensions escalated as Iranian
tankers tested a US blockade and the UK Maritime Trade Operations
said two ships came under fire. Treasuries rose across the curve, with the
10-year yield dropping two basis points to 4.27%. The dollar eased 0.1%,
while Bitcoin headed for the highest level since February and
gold/silver rebounding from yesterday’s weakness. There is nothing on the macro
calendar but we will have another busy day with earnings: TSLA is expected to
report after market-close today.
Fundamental
Headlines
The
Economy
US
Weekly
mortgage applications were up 7.8% while purchase applications were up 10%.
Month to date retail chain sales grew 6.7%
versus 7.0% in the prior week.
March pending home sales rose 1.5% versus forecasts
of up 0.1%.
International
The
March Japanese trade balance was Y667 billion versus projections of Y1106
billion.
March UK CPI was
up 0.7% versus estimates of +0.6%; core CPI was up 0.4% versus +0.5%; the
retail price index was up 0.8% versus +0.7%.
Other
Retail sales since the great recession.
More details on Mrach retail sales.
https://bonddad.blogspot.com/2026/04/march-retail-spending-including-or.html
Iran
Overnight news---confusing at best:
Pakistani
Journalist Mallick posted "To my understanding, while there might be some
roadblocks for the second round of US - Iran in person talks to go ahead, but
Diplomacy is not dead and its currently at play.".
US President Trump
is reportedly willing to Iran give another three to five days of ceasefire,
Axios reported citing sources; "It certainly looks like Trump doesn't want
to use military force anymore and has made a decision to end the war,". US
officials and Pakistani mediators are waiting for Khamenei to break his silence
in the next day or two and give his negotiators a clear directive to return to
the table. Ceasefire is not going to be open-ended, the source added.
Iran received
'some sign' the US is ready to break the blockade, Tasnim reported.
US President Trump
posted "Iran is collapsing financially! They want the Strait of Hormuz
opened immediately- Starving for cash! Losing 500 Million Dollars a day.
Military and Police complaining that they are not getting paid. SOS!!!".
Fox News cited
sources that stated US President Trump's decision not to resume strikes on Iran
for now is a last chance for peace that Trump is giving to the Iranian people,
but added the ceasefire will be short-term unless an agreement is reached
shortly. ".
Iran top joint
military command spokesperson said they are warning against repeated threats of
the US President and army commanders, that their capable and the powerful
forces have been 100% ready and on the trigger for a long time. said: In
case of aggression and any action against Iran, they will immediately attack
the predetermined targets and teach the aggressor, America and Israeli regime
another lesson.
Iranian TV states
Iran will not recognize ceasefire announced by Trump and may not abide by
it and will act in accordance with its national interests, according to Al
Mayadeen.
Power
vacuum in Iran?
Power
Vacuum In Iran Isn't Fazing US Economy
Summary:
What if the US won the war, but Iran can't surrender because no one is in
charge over there? To make a deal, President Donald Trump needs someone to deal
with. He was hoping to strike a deal this week in Islamabad, but the Iranians
declined to meet because they are too busy fighting among themselves. Indeed,
Trump, today, said that he extended the ceasefire because "the Government
of Iran is seriously fractured, not unexpectedly so," a reference to
US-Israeli assassinations of many of the country's leaders.
Monetary
Policy
The question Warsh must answer.
https://www.ms.now/opinion/trump-fed-chair-kevin-warsh-hearing-question
Five things to watch at the Warsh hearing.
https://assets.realclear.com/files/2026/04/2872_fed_notes_-_april_17.pdf
Three things to know about Warsh.
https://www.npr.org/2026/04/21/nx-s1-5787863/federal-reserve-kevin-warsh-confirmation-hearing
Recession
Oil traders warn of recession.
The
Financial System
The private credit panic is overblown.
Private credit funds strained as borrowing
costs rise.
https://giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/actions/redeem/40fca5f4-daa6-4193-8305-db74131bd869
Investing
Stop reading the
news.
https://alhambrapartners.com/weekly-market-pulse-stop-reading-the-news/?src=news
Investing can be
unpleasant.
https://www.tker.co/p/i-took-no-pleasure-in-that
JP Morgan raises
S&P price target.
Summary:
the big bank's strategists are out this morning with a bigger picture
bullish note raising its year-end target for the S&P 500 to 7,600,
after a downgrade to 7,200 made just last month. In summary, the team, led by
Dubravko Lakos-Bujas, says a renewed surge in enthusiasm for artificial
intelligence will help drive US stocks to higher-than-expected levels this
year. As Bloomberg's Levin Stamm noted, the team’s rapid reversal of the March
downgrade, where they cited geopolitical risks, underscores the difficulties
faced by market forecasters in President Trump‘s second term amid 'tweet bingo'
and 'headline roulette'. The JPMorgan team notes that "this level of
investor interest in AI stocks has not been seen since 1H25."
Don’t buy the earnings hype.
https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/dont-buy-earnings-hype
Summary:
Wall Street is suddenly euphoric on earnings again. S&P 500 EPS
expectations are screaming higher, 15–20% growth ahead. But history is clear:
analysts chase the cycle, not predict it. And right now the earnings bonanza is
being very narrow. On the surface: bullish. Underneath: just another late-cycle
surge in optimism. This isn’t broad strength. It’s two trades: AI / Tech capex boom.
Commodities spike (energy + materials). Everything else? Meh. This is not a
synchronized economy, it's a concentrated narrative rally.
News on Stocks in Our Portfolios
What
I am reading today
The
results of a new study on the accuracy of AI.
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