Wednesday, October 22, 2025

The Morning Call---What hapened to gold?

 

The Morning Call

 

10/22/25

 

The Market

         

    Technical

 

            Tuesday in the charts.

                https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/old-gold-dumped-new-gold-pumped-trump-trips-stocks

 

                Tuesday in the technical stats.

            https://www.barchart.com/stocks/momentum

            https://www.barchart.com/stocks/sectors/rankings

            https://www.barchart.com/stocks/signals/new-recommendations

 

            The latest from Goldman’s desk.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/odd-feeling-here-goldman-delta-one-head-getting-nervous-says-real-risk-if-ai-story-cracks

 

            The latest from JP Morgan’s desk.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/these-are-top-3-risks-jpmorgan-traders-are-monitoring

 

            Risk on sentiment persists.

            https://www.capitalspectator.com/risk-on-sentiment-persists-for-global-strategies/

           

            Will retail buy the dip?

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/will-retail-step-and-buy-fing-dip

 

            Precious metals pummeled.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/precious-metals/precious-metals-pummeled

 

            What happened to gold?

                        https://www.zerohedge.com/precious-metals/what-earth-happened-gold-today-few-shocking-charts-goldmans-commodity-desk

 

 

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

 

Weekly mortgage applications fell 0.3% while purchase applications were down 5.0%.

 

Month to date retail chain store sales were up 5.0% versus up 5.9% in the prior week.

 

                        International

 

The September Japanese trade balance was -Y234.6 billion versus forecasts of -Y40.0 billion.

 

September UK CPI came in at 0.0% versus predictions of +0.2%; core CPI was also 0.0% versus +0.2%

 

                        Other

 

                          US agriculture sector under stress.

                          https://econbrowser.com/archives/2025/10/econofact-the-u-s-agricultural-sector-under-stress

 

                          A whiff of consumer weakening?

                          https://bonddad.blogspot.com/2025/10/redbook-philly-fed-whiff-of-consumer.html

 

            Overnight News

 

The US government shutdown is now the second-longest in history, and with Trump expected to head to Asia later this week, lawmakers and congressional aides see a real possibility of the closure extending into November.

 

US companies are beating earnings expectations at the highest rate in over four years, with 85% surpassing profit estimates in the third quarter so far.

 

Trump said he won't meet with Democratic leaders unless the government is reopened.

 

Trump's administration plans to release over USD 3bln in aid to US farmers previously frozen due to government shutdown.

 

US has offered energy companies access to nuclear waste that they can convert into fuel for advanced reactors in an attempt to break Russia’s stranglehold over uranium supply chains.

 

India and the United States are nearing a long-stalled trade agreement that would reduce U.S. tariffs on Indian imports to 15% to 16% from 50%, India's Mint reported on Wednesday citing three people aware of the matter. The deal, which hinges on energy and agriculture, may see India gradually scale back its imports of Russian crude oil.

 

            Monetary Policy

 

              Recent change in Fed policy helps stem liquidity problems.

              https://wolfstreet.com/2025/10/20/repo-market-brushfires-doused-by-banks-use-of-the-feds-standing-repo-facility-srf/

 

            Fiscal Policy

 

              We don’t need so much government.

              https://nypost.com/2025/10/19/opinion/the-shutdown-proves-it-we-dont-need-so-much-government-after-all/

 

              Big government, no growth.

              https://talkmarkets.com/content/economics--politics/big-government-no-growth-the-implosion-of-statism?post=528037

 

            The Financial System

 

              The stable coin shock to the credit markets.

              https://openbanker.beehiiv.com/p/stablecoinshock

 

            China

 

              China’s economy has problems.

              China's Economy Has A Few Major Problems

 

     Investing

 

            How to deal with Market uncertainty.

            https://alhambrapartners.com/weekly-market-pulse-free-will/?src=news

 

            October outlook for S&P dividends.

            https://politicalcalculations.blogspot.com/2025/10/the-outlook-for-s-500-dividends-in.html

 

            Does covered call writing present a superior strategy?

            https://talkmarkets.com/content/options/effectiveness-of-covered-call-strategy-in-developed-and-emerging-markets?post=529569

 

            Common errors in equity valuation.

            https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=5582990

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

Sherwin Williams (NYSE:SHW) declares $0.79/share quarterly dividend, in line with previous.

 

 

What I am reading today

 

           

 

 

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