The Morning Call---Is this time different?

 

The Morning Call

 

10/2/25

 

The Market

         

    Technical

 

            Wednesday in the charts.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/stocks-celebrate-government-shutdown-surging-new-record-high

 

                Wednesday in the technical stats.

            https://www.barchart.com/stocks/momentum

            https://www.barchart.com/stocks/sectors/rankings

            https://www.barchart.com/stocks/signals/new-recommendations

 

            GDX goes parabolic.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/magnificent-miners-go-parabolic

 

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

 

The September manufacturing PMI came in at 49.1 versus estimates of 49.0.

https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2025/10/01/sp-global-manufacturing-pmi-september-2025

 

The September ISM manufacturing index was 52.0, in line.

https://bonddad.blogspot.com/2025/10/ism-manufacturing-index-continues-to.html

 

September light vehicle sales totaled 16.4 million versus expectations of 16.2 million.

 

                        International

 

                          The August EU unemployment rate was 6.3% versus consensus of 6.2%.

 

The September Japanese consumer confidence index was 35.3 versus projections of 35.5.

 

                        Other

 

                          The economy is strong and inflation is high.

                          https://www.apolloacademy.com/the-economy-is-strong-and-inflation-is-high/

 

                          Update on new home affordability.

                          https://politicalcalculations.blogspot.com/2025/10/new-home-affordability-little-changed.html

 

            Fiscal Policy

 

              Why spending cuts must take center stage.

              https://www.civitasinstitute.org/research/the-deficit-trap-why-spending-cuts-must-take-center-stage

 

     Investing

 

            Likely adjustments in 2026 social security benefits.

            https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/2025/09/29/social-security-surprise-retirees-2026/86025646007/

 

            Is this time different?

            https://www.ft.com/content/362d4eb2-ac10-4b76-960a-a11a18495851

 

            The venture capital AI valuation mania.

            https://wolfstreet.com/2025/09/30/ai-makes-past-hype-cycles-look-tame-pitchbook-on-the-stunning-venture-capital-mania-for-ai/

 

            For those who believe in crypto.

            https://www.ft.com/content/b3fa2647-df40-4ccd-9283-18edc8321870

 

            Why is the stock market up? (hint: earnings)

            https://awealthofcommonsense.com/2025/09/why-is-the-stock-market-up-so-much-in-the-2020s/

 

            FOMO can’t last forever.

            https://mrzepczynski.blogspot.com/2025/10/fomo-cannot-last-forever.html

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

 

 

What I am reading today

 

            The decline of thinking people.

            https://www.derekthompson.org/p/the-end-of-thinking

 

 

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