Tuesday, July 23, 2019

The Morning Call--Just what we need---a larger deficit


The Morning Call

7/23/19

The Market
         
    Technical

The Averages (27171, 2985) were up yesterday but continue in a consolidation phase after pushing through their all-time highs.  Both are above their MA’s and in uptrends across all time frames.  So, the trend is quite strong; though on a very short term basis, a recent gap up open still needs to be closed.  Volume was down, remaining anemic; breadth was again mixed.   My assumption is that the indices will challenge the upper boundary of their long term uptrends (29947, 3191), though the aforementioned conditions remain a potential early warning of a reversal.

            The VIX fell 6 3/8 %, dropping back below the upper boundary of its very short term downtrend, voiding Friday’s break.  That puts it closer to its historic lows---which should provide pretty stiff resistance. That said, it finished below both MA’s and in a very short term downtrend.   So, impetus is lower. 

The long bond was up 1/8%, ending above both MA’s and a minor support level, in a very short term uptrend (that earlier gap down open has been filled) and six cents below a twenty year high.  With the Fed trying to out-dove itself and economic growth slipping, the pin action makes sense.

            The dollar rose 1/8%, closing above both MA’s, in a short term uptrend and roughly fifteen cents from a twenty year high---not what I would expect with Trump crying for a lower dollar and the Fed seemingly accommodating him with a more aggressive expansion of monetary policy.

            GLD was down two cents; but the trend remains strong.  It is above both MA’s, in  short and very short term uptrends, three dollars above a five year high but fifty dollars below its all-time high.  Still, it has that one gap up open that needs to be filled. 

Bottom line:  the Averages continue to quietly work off an overbought condition but on weak volume, deterorating breadth and the need to fill gap up opens from three weeks ago.  Given the strength of their pin action, my assumption remains that the Averages are on their way to challenging the upper boundaries of their long term uptrends.

The long bond and gold are pointing to lower rates/weaker economy; the dollar just the opposite in spite of Trump’s rhetoric and the Fed’s increasingly dovish narrative. One way to resolve this inconsistency is to view them all as safety trades.

            Monday in the charts.

    Fundamental

       Headlines

            One datapoint was released yesterday: the Chicago Fed national activity index was negative but not as much as forecast.  Nothing overseas.

            Speculation on the outcome of the FOMC meeting next week is taking a lot of airtime and print space---the debate being whether there will be a 25 or 50 basis point rate cut and what either would say about the Fed’s opinion on the economy.  As you know, I think this debate akin to arguing about the number of angels that can dance on the head of pin.  In my opinion, the Fed was way too late raising rates which makes it way too late to lower them.  In short, whatever the magnitude of the cut, it will have little impact on the economy.  But, as long as the Fed/Market co-dependency exists, the Markets will continue to levitate.

            The Fed’s asymmetric bubble blowing policy.
           
            The Fed, the Phillips Curve and asset price inflation.

            The debt ceiling and QE/QT.

            Issue number two, which appears to have been put to rest, is an agreement on the debt ceiling.  Of course, it provides for additional spending (and, hence, a bigger deficit)---which, as I repeatedly point out, is exactly the opposite of what sound fiscal policy would entail, i.e. running surpluses or at least balancing the budget when the economy is at or near full capacity.

            Three, tensions in the Middle East continue to escalate as the UK works to build a coalition to provide safe conduct for tankers going through the Straits of Hormuz

And Trump imposes sanctions on a Chinese firm for importing Iranian crude.

                Finally, progress seems to be occurring on the US/China trade front.  It was reported that talks will soon resume.  In addition, the Pres met with tech leaders to hammer out a reasonable approach to the Huawei dilemma.
             
Bottom line: whatever one might think of the longer term implications of the terms of the (fiscally irresponsible) debt ceiling agreement, it removes a potential near term negative (a government shutdown).   

The resumption of face to face US/China trade talks is a positive; though the question is, will Trump remain steadfast in his insistence that China cease pirating US technology or will he fold?

Whatever the magnitude of the Fed rate cut, it will likely be a plus for the Market---at least until investors come to realize that higher prices don’t mean a higher discounted value of future cash flows.

            The potential for an escalation of violence in the Middle East remains a wild card.

            The latter notwithstanding, the above seems a prescription for higher stock prices.

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios
 
Becton, Dickinson (NYSE:BDX) declares $0.77/share quarterly dividend, in line with previous.

Kimberly-Clark (NYSE:KMB): Q2 Non-GAAP EPS of $1.67 beats by $0.05; GAAP EPS of $1.40 misses by $0.02.
Revenue of $4.59B (-0.2% Y/Y) misses by $10M

Sherwin Williams (NYSE:SHW): Q2 Non-GAAP EPS of $6.57 beats by $0.21; GAAP EPS of $5.03 misses by $0.30.
Revenue of $4.88B (+2.3% Y/Y) misses by $60M.

Coca-Cola (NYSE:KO): Q2 Non-GAAP EPS of $0.63 beats by $0.02; GAAP EPS of $0.61 misses by $0.01.
Revenue of $10B (+31.6% Y/Y) beats by $140M.

Economics

   This Week’s Data

      US

     International

            July UK industrial orders index was -34 versus estimates of -15; the business optimism index was -32 versus -14.

    Other

            Elizabeth Warren’s plan for the financial industry.  It has some merits.

What I am reading today

            Who is afraid of cryptocurrencies?

            The cannabis opportunity.

            Insurers running Medicare Advantage plans overbill taxpayers.

            How we make changes.

Visit Investing for Survival’s website (http://investingforsurvival.com/home) to learn more about our Investment Strategy, Prices Disciplines and Subscriber Service.




Monday, July 22, 2019

Monday Morning Chartology


The Morning Call

7/22/19

I am back but must leave again on Wednesday.  Again, I am not sure when I will return.

The Market
         
    Technical

            The S&P rested a bit last week---not unusual for its overbought condition.  But, there was no technical damage done as it remains solidly above both MA’s and in uptrends across all time frames.  The only worrisome factors to consider are the low volume and weak breadth.



            The long bond had a decent week, continuing the rally off of a minor support level.  Its pin action remains quite strong.  It remains a hair a way from its all-time high (also the upper boundary of its short, intermediate and long term trading ranges).  Given the formidable resistance offered by such a confluence of trends, it is not surprising that it will take some work to successfully challenge that level---not that I am suggesting that it will.  That remains to be seen.  But I am saying that its latest retreat after an unsuccessful challenge is fairly tame and suggests another one is coming.  Certainly, it is being helped on the fundamental side by the increasingly dovish rhetoric coming out of the Fed.  On the other hand, viewed in the context of the price action in the dollar and gold, its capacity as a safety trade seems a likely alternative explanation.



            You certainly couldn’t tell from the dollar’s performance that the Fed was getting more dovish or that the Donald is vowing the weaken it.  Indeed, with it trading very near its twenty year high, you would likely think that the economy was strengthening (not happening) and/or the Fed was tightening (also not happening) or the investors are continuing to view it as a safety trade.



            Despite the strength in the dollar (usually a negative for gold), GLD continues its upward momentum.  The fact that the dollar and gold are up reinforces my view that the need for safety is increasing among investors of all stripes---with the exception of the stock boys.



            The VIX trended higher past week as stock prices weakened---which is as to be expected.  As you can see, it closed above the upper boundary of its very short term downtrend on Friday; if it remains there through the close today, that trend will be voided.  However, it is still below both MA’s.  Of late, it has been performing in the usual inverse trading pattern viz a viz stocks;  so, its pin action is providing little directional information. 

           
            Friday in the charts.

    Fundamental

       Headlines

            The majority of the datapoints released last week were negative.  In addition, there were two primary indicators that were downbeat and one positive.  I rate the week a negative.  Score: in the last 197 weeks, sixty-three positive, ninety negative and forty-four neutral.  Notwithstanding the comments from the political class, the economy is not improving and, indeed, may be getting worse.  My forecast (continued sluggish growth) hasn’t changed but, as you know, the yellow light is flashing.

            Overseas, the stats were only slightly better than our own.  Which is not to say that they were positive; just not as poor as the US’s.  Still no help to our cause.

            Other factors impacting the market:

(1)   the Fed: various Fed officials mouthed off last week, suggesting that [a] the Fed didn’t need to see bad economic data before it began lowering rates---it could do so if it thought that the numbers could turn south {ignoring the fact that they already have} and [b] zero interest rates were a possibility.  Then other officials scrambled to walk those comments back.  But the damage is done---these guys are clueless and scared sh*tless that they might have failed once again to manage the economy from ease to normal---which they almost surely have already done.

                 The Fed flip flops (must read):

                 And why they have an increasing numbing effect on Market (also a must read):

                 Keep an eye on Deutschebank.

                 Difficulties in the Chinese banking system.

(2)   fiscal policy: Debt ceiling talks are now making their way to the front page.

(3)   conditions in the Persian Gulf continue to deteriorate with multiple seizures of opposing party tankers.   Plus, the US shot down an Iranian drone.  The risk here is the impairment of oil supplies to multiple global economies.

            Bottom line: the economic numbers aren’t getting any better, increasing the odds that my forecast may be too optimistic.  I still believe that the US economy is not headed for any kind of crisis; however, if earnings fail to improve, the gap between price and the discounted value of future cash flow will continue to widen.

            As I have repeated ad nauseum, the Fed has painted itself into a corner via its irresponsible monetary policy.  When investors come to appreciate it, they will likely come to realize the price/value disparity.  I have also repeated too often, that as long as they don’t the Fed/Market codependency will continue.  One trigger for that epiphany would be a loss of confidence in the Fed.  Nothing generates loss of confidence like the constant reversal of policy/policy forecasts---which has been in abundance since last December.  That said, the Market continues to fawn over every Fed utterance.

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios
 
Schlumberger (NYSE:SLB): Q2 GAAP EPS of $0.35 in-line.
Revenue of $8.27B (-0.4% Y/Y) beats by $160M.

Schlumberger (NYSE:SLB) declares $0.50/share quarterly dividend, in line with previous.          

BlackRock (NYSE:BLK): Q2 Non-GAAP EPS of $6.41 misses by $0.18; GAAP EPS of $6.41 misses by $0.16.
Revenue of $3.52B (-2.5% Y/Y) misses by $50M.

BlackRock (NYSE:BLK) declares $3.30/share quarterly dividend, in line with previous.
McDonald's (NYSE:MCD) declares $1.16/share quarterly dividend, in line with previous.

Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT): Q4 Non-GAAP EPS of $1.37 beats by $0.16; GAAP EPS of $1.71 beats by $0.50.
Revenue of $33.72B (+12.1% Y/Y) beats by $920M

Coca-Cola (NYSE:KO) declares $0.40/share quarterly dividend, in line with previous.

Genuine Parts (NYSE:GPC): Q2 Non-GAAP EPS of $1.57 misses by $0.08; GAAP EPS of $1.53 misses by $0.13.
Revenue of $4.93B (+2.3% Y/Y) misses by $70M.

Sherwin Williams (NYSE:SHW) declares $1.13/share quarterly dividend, in line with previous.

Economics

   This Week’s Data

      US

            The June Chicago Fed national activity index was reported at -0.2 versus expectations of -0.3.

     International

    Other

            The new EU.

What I am reading today

           

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Tuesday, July 16, 2019

The Morning Call--How overvalued is it?


The Morning Call

7/16/19

I am leaving town on family business.  I am not sure when I will return.

The Market
         
    Technical

The Averages (27359, 3014) rose modestly yesterday. Both are above their MA’s and in uptrends across all time frames.  Still volume was down, remaining anemic; breadth was again mixed.  In addition, the recent gap up opens still need to be closed.  My assumption is that they will challenge the upper boundary of their long term uptrends (29947, 3191), though the aforementioned conditions remain a potential early warning of a reversal.

            The VIX was up 2 3/8 %, despite it being a price up day.  That said, it finished below both MA’s and in a very short term downtrend.   So, impetus is lower.  Nonetheless, it is close to its historic lows---which should provide pretty stiff resistance.

The long bond advanced another ½ %, holding above an obvious minor support level.  Given its big runup since late May, the consolidation so far has been well within the bounds of ‘normal’.  Nonetheless, it is above both MA’s, in a very short term uptrend and has a gap down open which needs to be filled.  The big question remains how TLT will act longer term in response to the Powell’s recent surprisingly dovish tilt---so far, it is not buying the improving economy/higher inflation/rising long bond scenario.

            And.

            The dollar rose 1/8%, ending above both MA’s and in a short term uptrend---not what I would expect with Trump crying for a lower dollar and the Fed seemingly accommodating him with a more aggressive expansion of monetary policy.
           
            GLD was unchanged, leaving it above both MA’s and in a short term uptrend.  However, it finished below the lower boundary of its very short term uptrend by virtue of the boundary’s steep rate of ascent and GLD’s flat performance.  Still, it has made one gap up and one gap down opens and those need to be dealt with. 

Bottom line:  despite being overbought (and getting more so) on weak volume, deterorating breadth indicators and the need to fill the recent gap up opens, my assumption remains that the Averages are on their way to challenging the upper boundaries of their long term uptrends.

The other indicators appear to have shaken off the initial shock of the Fed’s push to QEIV and seem to be returning to the econoimc slowdown/safety trade investor mindset.  However, I would like to see another week of trading before drawing any conclusion about whether the Fed’s action has altered their investors’ outlook.

            Monday in the charts.

    Fundamental

       Headlines

            Only one stat reported yesterday: the July NY Fed manufacturing index was stronger than anticipated.  Overseas, there was a host of datapoints out of China most of it good: YoY Chinese GDP was in line; industrial production, retail sales and fixed asset investment were better than expected.

            Few other headlines, though there were a number of articles addressing Market valuations:

            How overvalued is the market?

            Investors all in on stocks.

            The post retirement society.

            The latest from Jim Rogers.

Bottom line: we are moving into earnings season with expectations somewhat cautious.  But as overbought as this Market is, it has been resistant to any kind of decline however the fundamentals are unfolding.  My thesis is that this is explained by the Fed/Market codependency which is likely to continue until investors come to realize that higher prices don’t mean a higher discounted value of future cash flows.

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios
 
Johnson & Johnson (NYSE:JNJ): Q2 Non-GAAP EPS of $2.58 beats by $0.14; GAAP EPS of $2.08 beats by $0.04.
Revenue of $20.56B (-1.3% Y/Y) beats by $170M.


            Johnson & Johnson (NYSE:JNJ) declares $0.95/share quarterly dividend, in line with previous.

Economics

   This Week’s Data

      US

            June retail sales soared +0.4% versus expectations of +0.1%; ex autos, they were up 0.4% versus +0.1%.

            June import prices  fell 0.9% versus estimates of -0.7%; export prices were -0.7% versus -0.2%.

     International

            May UK unemployment was 3.8%, in line.

            The May EU trade surplus was E23 billion versus forecasts of  E16.3 billion; July economic sentiment was -20.3 versus -20.9.

July German economic sentiment was -24.5 versus projections of -22.3.

    Other

The growth of the spending class ends in 2020.

            Global debt hits $246 trillion.

What I am reading today

            How to have a good flight.

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