Thursday, July 31, 2014

Paychex (PAYX) 2014 Review

Paychex Inc. provides computerized payroll-accounting services, salary deposit services, automatic payroll tax payment and tax return filing services and human resource products and services to approximately 570,000 small and medium sized businesses.  The company has earned a 25%+ return on equity over the last 10 years and has grown profits and dividends 8-13% in the same time period.  While PAYX is somewhat sensitive to the economy, it should continue to provide above average returns as a result of:

(1) rising number of checks processed as well as an increase in revenue per check,

(2) acquisitions,

(3) increasing demand for health and benefits offerings,

(4) geographic expansion,

(5) an R&D effort designed to expand product offerings.

Negatives:

(1) a weak economy negatively impacts the growth of its client base,

(2) low interest rates are impacting ‘interest on funds held for clients’.

PAYX is rated A by Value Line, has no debt and its stock yields 3.7%.

  Statistical Summary

                  Stock      Dividend         Payout      # Increases  
                  Yield      Growth Rate     Ratio       Since 2004

PAYX         3.7%           7%                82%             8
Ind Ave       1.9             11*                 39               NA 

                Debt/                       EPS Down       Net        Value Line
               Equity         ROE      Since 2004      Margin       Rating

PAYX        0%            36%            2                25%            A
Ind Ave     19              20              NA              12              NA

*over one half of the companies in PAYX’s industry don’t pay a dividend

     Chart

            Note: PAYX stock made good progress off its March 2009 low, quickly surpassing the downtrend off its August 2007 high (straight red line) and the November 2008 trading high (green line).  Long term, the stock is in an uptrend (blue lines).  Intermediate term, it is in an uptrend (purple lines).  The wiggly red line is the 50 day moving average.  The Dividend Growth Portfolio owns a 75% position in PAYX.  The upper boundary of its Buy Value Range is $24; the lower boundary of its Sell Half Range is $50.

   

7/14

Morning Journal--Abenomics still not working

 News on Stocks in Our Portfolios
·         Automatic Data Processing (NASDAQ:ADP): FQ4 EPS of $0.63 in-line.
·         Revenue of $3.07B (+9.3% Y/Y) beats by $40M.
·         Occidental Petroleum (NYSE:OXY): Q2 EPS of $1.79 beats by $0.02.
·         Revenue of $6.27B (+5.2% Y/Y) beats by $230M.

    • ConocoPhillips (NYSE:COP): Q2 EPS of $1.61 in-line.
    • Revenue of $14.7B (+4.0% Y/Y) misses by $680M.
·         Colgate-Palmolive (NYSE:CL): Q2 EPS of $0.73 in-line.
·         Revenue of $4.35B (+0.2% Y/Y) misses by $60M.

    • Becton, Dickinson (NYSE:BDX): FQ3 EPS of $1.68 beats by $0.01.
    • Revenue of $2.15B (+4.9% Y/Y) beats by $10M.
·         Murphy Oil (NYSE:MUR): Q2 EPS of $0.90 misses by $0.32.
·         Revenue of $1.35B (+1.5% Y/Y) misses by $70M.
·         Franklin Resources (NYSE:BEN): FQ3 EPS of $0.92 misses by $0.03.
·         Revenue of $2.13B (+2.4% Y/Y) misses by $40M.

Economics

   This Week’s Data

            Weekly jobless claims rose 23,000 versus expectations of a 21,000 increase.

            Second quarter employment costs rose 0.7% versus forecasts of up 0.5%.

   Other

            Could we be facing a stagnating economy? (medium):

            Abenomics—still not working (medium):

            More on Espirito Santo (medium):

The Morning Call--The technical picture keeps getting murkier

The Morning Call

7/31/14

The Market
           
    Technical

            After another roller coaster day, the indices (DJIA 16880, S&P 1970) finished mixed (Dow down, S&P up slightly).  The Dow closed below its 50 day moving average, while the S&P ended right on this trend line.  Nonetheless, they both remained within uptrends across all time frames: short (16232-17711, 1919-2085), intermediate (16624-20922, 1862-2662) and long (5101-18464, 762-1999).

            Volume was flat; breadth mixed.  The VIX rose, finishing within short and intermediate term downtrends but is now back above its 50 day moving average.  Further, it is forming a very short term uptrend.

            And:

            The long Treasury was down.  It is above its 50 day moving average.  While TLT is also within its short term uptrend, it is back below the upper boundary of its former short term trading range.  I am leaving the uptrend intact.  But I also remind you that this chart has been really schizophrenic of late; so I have little confidence in the strength of this trend.  It remains within its intermediate term trading range.

            Very counterintuitive (short and a must read):

            GLD was down, closing below its 50 day moving average and within its short term trading range and its intermediate term downtrend.

Bottom line: the technical picture remains cloudy (at least for me).  The Markets received good news yesterday in the form of a solid second quarter report as well as an unchanged (easy) Fed statement---the goldilocks scenario.  Yet stocks went nowhere in spite of its oversold condition.  Indeed, the Dow has dropped below its 50 day moving average while the S&P is challenging its average and the VIX is forming a very short term uptrend.

Bonds sold off strong, presumably because the economy is stronger than many thought and the Fed said it would remain accommodative into the foreseeable future (inflation).    That makes sense.  However, GLD was down on the same stronger economic numbers and an easy Fed---both of which generally pushes gold prices higher. 

If I try to factor in geopolitical risks, it brings no clarity.

In short, the technical picture keeps getting murkier; but price declines remain de minimus.  Until that changes, momentum by definition is to the upside.

Our strategy remains to do nothing save taking advantage of the current momentum to lighten up on stocks whose prices are pushed into their Sell Half Range or whose underlying company’s fundamentals have deteriorated.

    Fundamental
 
     Headlines

            Yesterday brought lots more data; but this round carried more weight---the ADP private payroll report showed growth but less than expected, weekly mortgage and purchase applications were mixed and the first reading of the second quarter GDP was much stronger than anticipated.  Of the three, the GDP number was by far the most important and clearly goes a way to offsetting the recent string of lousy primary indicator reports.

            Also as you know, the FOMC meeting ended---and its statement read pretty much as expected: (1) it is tapering another $10 billion a month and (2) it spent the bulk of the statement giving us its ‘on the one hand’ ‘on the other hand’ routine with the end result as expected---no prospect of rising interest rates in sight.  There was one dissenting vote (Plosser), providing just a hint of hawkishness.

Overseas, the stats weren’t so good: the June Japanese industrial production figure was down a whopping 3.3%---this at a point where the recent explosion of money into the economy was supposed to overcome the initial negative impact of a tax increase.  In addition, second quarter French housing sales plunged 19%.  Clearly, this data does nothing to assuage my concerns about international economic risks.

Bottom line: I would have thought that the bulls would be all over yesterday’s primary economic headlines.  That is what I get for thinking.  Nonetheless, those stats are encouraging regardless of what is happening the short term.  For myself, the data makes me want to lean toward the improving economy/higher inflation scenario (as opposed to   recession).  As I always say, one day doesn’t make a trend; but if nonfarm payrolls and personal income and spending stats follow the upbeat GDP lead, then I will start the move. 

In the meantime, stocks are overvalued whether the economy is slowing or holding its own or whether inflation is under control or not.  That said, I continue to believe that Fed policy when, as and if it ever raises rates will have a much smaller impact on the economy than it will on the market.

My bottom line is that for current prices to hold, it requires a perfect outcome to the numerous problems facing the US and global economies AND investor willingness to accept the compression of future potential returns into current prices.

 I can’t emphasize strongly enough that I believe that the key investment strategy today is to take advantage of the current high prices to sell any stock that has been a disappointment or no longer fits your investment criteria and to trim the holding of any stock that has doubled or more in price.

            Bear in mind, this is not a recommendation to run for the hills.  Our Portfolios are still 55-60% invested and their cash position is a function of individual stocks either hitting their Sell Half Prices or their underlying company failing to meet the requisite minimum financial criteria needed for inclusion in our Universe.
        
            It is a cautionary note not to chase this rally.

            The latest from Bill Gross (medium and today’s must read):

Wednesday, July 30, 2014

Investing for Survival

 Investing for Survival

Those of us who are sensitive to tax, financial, and regulatory events, both in the U.S. and offshore, see some disturbing developments toward currency and other financial controls. Taken together, these developments may well signal evacuating before exits are blocked.

• The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has just published a report titled Fiscal Monitor: Taxing Times, which suggests governments in developed nations, especially the U.S., should consider new means “to raise revenue from the top of the income distribution,” including the direct confiscation of personal wealth.

• The world learned the new phrase “bail in” (as compared to “bail out”) when the European Union forced the Republic of Cyprus, as part of a bank rescue package, to raid the personal and corporate deposits of account holders to pay for losses. Word soon leaked out that many nations have adopted emergency “bail-in” bank rules, including even Canada and Switzerland.

• In November 2012 the U.S. banking giant JPMorgan Chase summarily told certain of its business-account holders they are no longer permitted to send or receive international wire transfers, and their account activity is limited to $50,000 a month.

• A few months before, HSBC closed a number of accounts held by United Arab Emirate small- and medium-sized enterprises, causing customer anger. Some of HSBC Premier’s U.S. clients now are forced to wait five days before transferring funds to their own international accounts.

The Foreign Account Tax Compliance Act (FATCA) is confusing and misunderstood. While the U.S. government pitches it as a way to catch all those imagined tax cheaters, FATCA is much more than that. By forcing U.S. tax law on every country around the globe, the U.S. government and the U.S. Internal Revenue Service have evoked a reaction leading to restrictive currency and financial controls. FATCA, along with the PATRIOT Act and anti-money laundering laws, has pressured not just individuals, but U.S. banks, as well.

 The Chase and HSBC actions, however unfair, are consistent with the reaction of offshore banks that have dumped thousands of unwanted U.S. account holders as costly liabilities. For years I have warned repeatedly of “soft currency controls.” The U.S. government, especially the IRS, is doing all it can to keep Americans and their money at home, where they can control it. Fortunately, going “offshore” is the effective way to circumvent restrictive laws and regulations—and even expand your wealth. It’s the only way to get around Big Brother.

As the U.S. government flexes its regulatory muscle, offshore investing is one of the last remaining ways for smart investors to legitimately safeguard their wealth. Now more than ever, it’s important to “go offshore” with your money. There are simply too many new global centers of wealth and power to be ignored.

As U.S. clients are being asked to leave traditional offshore private banks because of FATCA’s onerous provisions, they are finding better service and better Offshore investment advice from a boutique group of advisors—independent asset managers (IAMs). These investment managers aren’t tied to a particular bank. Rather, they are tied to their clients—your needs come first. As an added guarantee, these folks have all qualified and registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). This is a big turnaround: Typically, these guys worked for the banks…but now they are ready to work for you.

Robert Vrijhof is President of Weber, Hartmann, Vrijhof & Partners associated with a variety of Swiss and other foreign banks. For more details see Whvp.ch.

Juan Federico Fischer can help you arrange bank accounts in Uruguay. See: Fs.com.uy.Banks

I recommend in Singapore and Hong Kong do not accept accounts directly from individual U.S. persons but instead require an intermediary to submit account applications on their behalf. These banks do require the U.S. account applicant to appear personally at their offices as part of the application process.

Josh Bennett JD, who is also an expert attorney in offshore asset protection and U.S. offshore taxes and reporting requirements can help you.


Morning Journal--The failure of bank oversight

News on Stocks in Our Portfolios
·         Lorillard (NYSE:LO): Q2 EPS of $0.84 misses by $0.04.
·         Revenue of $1.8B (flat Y/Y) beats by $460M.

    • AmeriGas Partners (NYSE:APU): FQ3 EPS of -$0.47 misses by $0.08.
    • Revenue of $613.2M (+5.4% Y/Y) misses by $14.46M.
·         C.H. Robinson Worldwide (NASDAQ:CHRW): Q2 EPS of $0.80 beats by $0.04.
·         Revenue of $3.5B (+6.4% Y/Y) in-line.
·         Ecolab (NYSE:ECL): Q2 EPS of $1.03 beats by $0.01.
·         Revenue of $3.57B (+6.9% Y/Y) beats by $20M.
·         Illinois Tool Works (NYSE:ITW): Q2 EPS of $1.21 beats by $0.01.
·         Revenue of $3.72B (+3.6% Y/Y) misses by $30M.
 
Economics

   This Week’s Data

            The International Council of Shopping Centers reported weekly sales of major retailers up 0.2% versus the prior week and up 4.6% on a year over year basis; Redbook Research reported month to date retail chain stores sales up 4.2% versus the comparable period last month and up 3.0% versus the similar timeframe a year ago.

            The May Case Shiller home price index fell 0.3% versus expectations of an increase of 0.4%.

            The Conference Board’s July consumer confidence index came in at 90.9 versus estimates of 85.5.

            Weekly mortgage applications fell 2.2% although purchase applications rose 0.2%.

            The July ADP private payroll report showed a gain of 218,000 jobs, 63,000 less than anticipated.

            Second quarter GDP jumped 4.0% versus estimates of 3.1%.

   Other

            ***overnight, June Japanese industrial production fell 3.3%.

            The Fed in denial (medium):
            http://www.cnbc.com/id/101872556

            An interesting thought on ‘unwinding’ QE (medium):

            Variable credit card interest rates at the highest level since 2001 (short):

            The diminishing quality of debt that the Fed has enabled (medium):

Politics

  Domestic

Bank oversight (medium and today’s must read):

The latest clusterfuck on amnesty---from my favorite liberal (medium):

  International

            Stratfor on Israel and Gaza (short):

                The latest out of Israel/Gaza (medium):

            Obama’s foreign policy (medium):

The Morning Call---The Russian sanctions fiasco

The Morning Call

7/30/14

The Market
           
    Technical

            The indices (DJIA 16912, S&P 1969) drifted lower yesterday, but closed above their 50 day moving averages (the Dow ended near its average) and within uptrends across all time frames: short (16232-17711, 1919-2085), intermediate (16624-20922, 1862-2662) and long (5101-18464, 762-1999). 

            Volume rose slightly; breadth deteriorated---pushing stocks into an extended oversold position.  The VIX jumped 6%, finishing below, though very close to, its 50 day moving average and within short and intermediate term downtrends.

            The long Treasury rose, likely on the increased tensions over sanctions on Russia.  It is over its 50 day moving average and within its short term uptrend and intermediate term trading range.

            Surprisingly, GLD sold off.  It closed above, though very close to, its 50 day moving average and within a short term trading range and intermediate term downtrend.

Bottom line: nervousness over a confrontation with Russia seemed to guide the pin action in the Markets yesterday---stocks down, bonds up on a flight to safety trade.  GLD’s performance continues to mystify me.  It bothers me that its trading remains so schizophrenic, because it raises doubts on what could be going on economically/geopolitically. 

This fallout from geopolitical events also masks the bond guys’ sentiment on the economy; that is, if bond prices were rising, ex sanctions, then it would make sense that investors are worried about an economic slowdown.  But is they are up on sanctions, it is tough to know their attitude on the economy.  

All that said, equity investors’ psychology remains relatively stable in the face of disconcerting news---something it has done consistently for the last two years.   Until that optimism fades, momentum by definition is to the upside.

Our strategy remains to do nothing save taking advantage of the current momentum to lighten up on stocks whose prices are pushed into their Sell Half Range or whose underlying company’s fundamentals have deteriorated.

            Since the late 1980’s, August is the worse month of the year for stocks.
    Fundamental

     Headlines

            Yesterday, the weekly retail sales report was upbeat while the latest reading on consumer confidence was a blowout number.  However, both are secondary indicators and as such are not earth shaking.  The Case Shiller May home price index was disappointing.  One could argue that this is stale (May) data.  On the other hand, it fits with other recent subpar stats on the housing market; and while that may increase its value somewhat, I am not altering a forecast on 60 day old data.
    
            The news that held everyone’s attention was the announcement of sanctions against Russia.  The EU elected to participate; though not surprisingly, they seemed designed to insure that they didn’t anger Putin sufficiently to impose painful retaliations.

            Obama moralized over the unacceptable Russian response to a problem the US brought on itself (sponsoring a coup disposing of a duly elected pro Russian Ukrainian president) with His usual holier than thou attitude and warned of more action to come if Russia doesn’t shape up and do what He wants.  Good luck with that Mr. President.  I have opined in the past that the real danger in this situation was Obama taking a too confrontational position that (1) the universe knows that He won’t back up and (2) Putin decides to bitch slap in front of the world.  That would likely weigh heavy on investors.

            And:

            And, this from David Stockman (medium and a must read):

            The other gem out of Washington was a move by the senate to penalize any company leaving the US to avoid dealing with the one million page, highly convoluted, overly oppressive tax code---the blame for which lies not with the company but with the congress.  It is symptom of our calcified fiscal policy that when it creates a regulatory environment designed to accomplish some ‘noble’ purpose and it fails, the solution is to impose more regulations not reform those that didn’t work in the first place.  I haven’t addressed in much detail this headwind to our economy in sometime; happily as result of gridlock.  Hopefully, that condition will continue to prevail.  Whether it does or not, the precondition (clowns to the left of me, jokers to the right) remains.

Bottom line: the meat of the week starts today---the first read on second quarter GDP (it was pleasantly surprising) and the completion of the latest FOMC meeting.  As I noted yesterday, I doubt that we will get anything new out of Yellen and crew; but the additional data on the economy will hopefully provide of some clarity on the pace of growth or lack thereof. 

This Ukrainian situation is getting more worrisome.  It is like a bad case of the herpes---it is not going away.  And the more the US and Russia keep poking each other in the eye, the greater the chance that something untoward occurs.  I am not talking war, I am talking about public humiliation---ours. 

My bottom line is that for current prices to hold, it requires a perfect outcome to the numerous problems facing the US and global economies AND investor willingness to accept the compression of future potential returns into current prices.

 I can’t emphasize strongly enough that I believe that the key investment strategy today is to take advantage of the current high prices to sell any stock that has been a disappointment or no longer fits your investment criteria and to trim the holding of any stock that has doubled or more in price.

            Bear in mind, this is not a recommendation to run for the hills.  Our Portfolios are still 55-60% invested and their cash position is a function of individual stocks either hitting their Sell Half Prices or their underlying company failing to meet the requisite minimum financial criteria needed for inclusion in our Universe.
        
            It is a cautionary note not to chase this rally.

            World’s largest systematic risk at the moment (medium):

Tuesday, July 29, 2014

Oneok Ptrs (OKS) 2014 Review

ONEOK Partners engages in gathering, processing, storing and transporting natural gas in the US.  This partnership has earned an 11-20% return on equity over the last five years and has grown profits and dividends at a 5-6% rate.    Earnings and dividends should continue to advance at a moderate pace as a result of:

(1) a broadly diversified geographic and customer base,

(2) strong cash flow allowing acquisitions and new projects.

(3) consistently raises cash distribution.

Negatives:

(1) it is exposed to the fluctuations of commodity [natural gas] prices,

(2) it doesn’t own all the land on which its pipelines and other facilities are located; hence, costs can rise as a result of contract renewal,

(3) its operations are subject to numerous federal, state and local regulations.

OKS is rated B++ by Value Line, has a 55% debt to equity ratio and its stock yields 5.4%.  If the company continues to grow its dividend at a 6% rate, the total return on this stock makes it an attractive bond substitute.

  Statistical Summary

                 Stock      Dividend         Payout      # Increases  
                 Yield      Growth Rate     Ratio       Since 2004

OKS           5.4%          6%              88                 6
Ind Ave      6.2             7                 75               NA 

                Debt/                     EPS Down       Net        Value Line
              Equity         ROE      Since 2004      Margin       Rating

OKS         55%          11%            4                4%             B++
Ind Ave    52             16              NA             15            NA

     Chart

            Note: OKS stock made great progress off its March 2009 low, quickly surpassing the downtrend off its May 2007 high (straight red line) and the November 2008 trading high (green line).  Long term it is in an uptrend (blue lines).  Intermediate term it is in an uptrend (purple lines).  The wiggly red line is the 50 day moving average.  The High Yield Portfolio owns a 50% position in OKS.  The upper boundary of its Buy Value Range is $50; the lower boundary of its Sell Half Range is $75.

   
        

   
7/14

Morning Journal---Stockman on Ukraine

  News on Stocks in Our Portfolios
·         United Parcel Service (NYSE:UPS): Q2 EPS of $1.21 misses by $0.04.
·         Revenue of $14.27B (+5.6% Y/Y) beats by $170M.

Economics

   This Week’s Data

            The July Markit flash services PMI was reported at 61.0 versus expectations of 60.0.

            June pending home sales fell 1.1%, in line.

            The July Dallas Fed’s manufacturing index came in at 12.7 versus estimates of 12.0

   Other

            Median household income rose in June (medium):

            Update on US corporate debt (short):

Politics

  Domestic

  International

            Doubts in EU about helping Ukraine (medium):

            David Stockman on Ukraine (medium and a must read):

            More from Ukraine (medium: