Thursday, August 31, 2017

The Morning Call--Trump's tax plan sounds great but is short on details

The Morning Call


8/31/17
The Market
         
    Technical

The indices (DJIA 21892, S&P 2457) had a good day on improved breadth, though volume continues low.  The S&P remains in focus; yesterday, it closed (1) above the lower boundary of its short term uptrend, (2) above the upper boundary of a developing short term downtrend as well as pushing out of the pennant formation to the upside and (3) also in the process broke the potential formation of a head and shoulders pattern.  We need some follow through today; but it appears that the S&P has completed its recent consolidation process and is heading higher.

The VIX (11.2) fell 4 %, leaving it below the upper boundary of its short term downtrend, back below its 100 day moving average (if it remains there through the close on Friday, it will revert to resistance), below its 200 day moving average (if it remains there through the close next Monday, it will revert to resistance) but finished above the lower boundary of a developing very short term uptrend.  I am left questioning whether or not the VIX has bottomed.

The long Treasury declined fractionally, ending above its 100 and 200 day moving averages (both support), the lower boundaries of its short term trading range and its long term uptrend and has now made a third short term higher high.  That is a lot of support. 

            And:
           
The dollar rose, but still finished in a short term downtrend and below its 100 and 200 day moving averages.  However, it closed back above the lower boundary of its short term trading range, negating Monday’s break.
           
 GLD fell, but ended above the lower boundary of its very short term uptrend, above its 100 and 200 day moving averages (both support) and above the upper boundary of its short term trading range for a third day, resetting to an uptrend.

Bottom line: while we need another day or so of follow through, it appears the S&P’s struggle to hold its short term uptrend is over.  However, the continued positive pin action in TLT along with the upside breakout of GLD are somewhat inconsistent with the renewed strength in the S&P.  I would like a little more clarity before I am comfortable with the overall technical picture.
           
    Fundamental

       Headlines

            Yesterday’s economic data were mixed: weekly mortgage and purchase applications fell, the August ADP private payroll report showed job increases above estimates and revised second quarter GDP was above consensus while corporate profits were less than originally reported. 

            A closer look at the GDP number (medium):

            Overseas, EU economic confidence rose to its highest level in a decade.

            ***overnight, the August Chinese manufacturing PMI came in ahead of expectations while the services PMI was below; August EU inflation was slightly above projections; August German unemployment declined.

            The major news item of the day was (aside from going a second day without insulting somebody critical accomplishing his agenda or sticking his foot in his mouth) the kick off of a series of Trump speeches on tax reform.  In it he laid out four objectives: simplify the tax code, lower corporate tax rates, lower middle class tax rates and repatriate the foreign profits of US firms.  Worthy objectives; but few details.   The three big questions are (1) what will it cost, i.e. is it revenue neutral, (2) can the Donald restrain his penchant for insulting everything that moves on capitol hill long enough to effectively work with congress to accomplish this objective and (3) even if he does, can the GOP come together to get it done.  Stay tuned.

            The US ups the ante against North Korea (medium):

Bottom line: I continue to believe that the most important factor to further improving in the long term secular growth rate of the economy is the implementation (or lack thereof) of the Trump/GOP fiscal program.  Having failed at healthcare, the next big item is tax reform; and yesterday, we got our first look at the Donald’s version of that.  The good news is that his goals sounded great; the bad news is that there wasn’t a hint of how much they would cost.  Until we know that, this is just an exercise in dreamweaving.

I also continue to believe that the economy has little to do with the ultimate fate of stock prices.  The key is that stocks, specifically, and assets, in general, have been through an extended period of mispricing and misallocation caused by misguided central bank monetary policies and which will likely be corrected sooner or later.   As a result, I think cash is an important part of any portfolio’s composition.

            This is a nice lesson from Warren Buffett in not panicking in a market rout.  What the author leaves out is that in both the market downturns that he describes, Buffett had plenty of cash to take advantage of the decline in prices.  That is a huge part of the math of achieving the returns mentioned.  Buffett had cash because he accumulated (and didn’t spend) it when stocks were at higher valuations---which happens to be a contradiction of the author who in prior articles argues for buy and hold.

            My thought for the day: most investors treat the recommendations of highly regarded Wall Street analysts as having great insight and worthy of being followed.  In fact, several studies have shown that for the most part, analyst’s prediction are so far off the mark as to be virtually useless.  Buyer beware.

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Economics

   This Week’s Data

            Weekly jobless claims rose 1,000 versus forecasts of up 3,000.

            July personal income was up 0.4%, in line; personal spending advanced 0.3% versus estimates of up 0.4%.

            August retail chain store sales were ahead of their July number.

   Other

Politics

  Domestic

Staff reductions in the State Department (medium):

  International War Against Radical Islam

            Iran rejects inspections of its nuclear sites (short):


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Wednesday, August 30, 2017

The Morning Call--Is a disaster really an economic plus?

The Morning Call

8/30/17

The Market
         
    Technical

The indices (DJIA 21865, S&P 2446) staged another major intraday move, starting off with big losses but closing up for the day.  Volume was up slightly, but remained at a low level; breadth was mixed.  The S&P remains in focus; yesterday, it (1) closed back above the lower boundary of its short term uptrend, negating Monday’s break, (2) continues to develop a very short term downtrend (3) indeed, the S&P is right at the point of the pennant formation that I pointed out in Monday’s Morning Chartology; technically speaking, that means that the direction of move out of the pennant points at the future course of prices and (4) also could potentially be forming a head and shoulders pattern.  To be clear, the index is above its 100 and 200 day moving averages and, at the moment, in uptrends across all timeframes.  So the aforementioned potential negatives are just that---potential negatives.    Meanwhile, the Dow isn’t close to challenging any support level.

The VIX (11.7) rose 3 ¼ % (unusual for it to be up on a Market up day), leaving it below the upper boundary of its short term downtrend but back above its 100 day moving average (negating Monday’s break), above its 200 day moving average and finished above the lower boundary of a developing very short term uptrend.  I am left questioning whether or not the VIX has bottomed.

The long Treasury was up, ending above its 100 and 200 day moving averages (both support), the lower boundaries of its short term trading range and its long term uptrend and has now made a third short term higher high.  That is a lot of support. 
           
The dollar rose slightly, closing in a short term downtrend, below its 100 and 200 day moving averages and below the lower boundary of its short term trading range for a second day---if it remains there through the close today, it will reset to a downtrend. 
           
 GLD declined, but still finished above the lower boundary of its very short term uptrend, above its 100 and 200 day moving averages (both support) and above the upper boundary of its short term trading range for a second day (if it remains there through the close today, it will reset to an uptrend). 

Bottom line: the S&P continues to struggle, technically speaking, over the short term.  Whether or not this pin action turns into something negative remains to be seen. In the meantime, long term its uptrend remains intact supported by a less technically challenged DJIA.  TLT, GLD and UUP are also are challenging or near challenging support/resistance levels.  It seems like all these markets are near inflection points.  I have no insight as to what that means directionally, but it seems like the next move will be big whichever route it takes.

    Fundamental

       Headlines

            Yesterday’s economic data was weighed to the upside: month to date retail chain store sales improved from the prior week, August consumer confidence was ahead of forecast while the June Case Shiller home price index rose less than expected.  Nothing from overseas.

            ***overnight, EU economic confidence rose to its highest level in a decade.
           
            Monday’s headlines remained front and center:

(1)   the lion’s share of media coverage continued to focus on the flooding in Texas.  The only good news was that Trump had a decent day acting presidential.  Plus a lot of market participants are [a] looking at the inevitable rebuilding effort as an economic plus {to which I take exception.  If rebuilding from a disaster is such an economic plus, why not nuke the whole country?}, [b] less concerned about the looming debt ceiling legislation since the disaster relief funding will likely be part of that legislation and [c] assuming this event will slow down any tightening move by the Fed.

(2)   reaction to the North Korean missile launch that flew over a northern Japanese island.  Here again, the optics were positive in that there was little to no response [at least not yet]---nothing threatening from Trump and the right amount of outrage from other world leaders, including China and Russia.

Bottom line: the economic news is not nearly as positive as the ruling class would have you believe---and Hurricane Harvey’s effect will not help, all that rebuilding elation notwithstanding.  The central bankers are threatening to tighten monetary policy, which I doubt.  And as I noted above, Harvey gives them the perfect excuse to continue to do nothing; but if they do start unwinding QEInfinity, I don’t believe that will be a plus for stock prices.  

Trump continues to persist in making the achievement of his own agenda more difficult by insulting and threatening the very people he needs to accomplish it.  Though to be fair, he did manage to have at least one good day---looking presidential in Texas and avoiding provocative statements on North Korea.  On the other hand, something has to be done to corral this clown running that country.  Of course, this could all end well, despite the drama.  It better because that is the way stocks are priced.

            TBTF bank executives are net sellers of their own shares (medium):
           
My thought for the day: investors have a tendency to overweight information that is easy to remember.  They remember dramatic, colorful information and ignore statistics which are abstract and boring.  This is especially harmful when markets are at extremes: at tops, the stories about investors making it big are more emotionally satisfying than valuations measure; conversely at bottoms, the horror stories describing stocks as the worst possible investments are easier to accept than valuations.
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Brown-Forman (NYSE:BF.B): Q1 EPS of $0.46 beats by $0.07.
Revenue of $723M (+9.4% Y/Y) beats by $33.42M.

Economics

   This Week’s Data

            August consumer confidence was reported at 122.9 versus expectations of 120.6.

            Weekly mortgage applications fell 2.3% while purchase applications were down 3.0%.

            The August ADP private payroll report showed an increase of 237,000 jobs versus estimates of a rise of 185,000.

            The second revision of second quarter GDP indicated growth of 5.0% versus forecasts of 2.8%; corporate profits advanced 8.1% versus the initial number of up 11.5%.

   Other

            There will be another financial crisis (medium):

            The fallacy of Draghi’s happy talk (medium):

            Economists as astrologists (medium):

Politics

  Domestic

  International War Against Radical Islam


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Tuesday, August 29, 2017

The Morning Call--Waiting for Trump's response

The Morning Call

8/29/17

The Market
         
    Technical

The indices (DJIA 21808, S&P 2444) had a mixed day (S&P up, Dow down).    Volume was flat, remaining at a low level; breadth was mixed.  The S&P remains in focus; yesterday, it (1) closed below the lower boundary of its short term uptrend [that boundary is rising faster than the stock price]; if it remains there through the close on Wednesday, it will reset to a trading range, (2) continues to develop a very short term downtrend and (3) also could potentially be forming a head and shoulders pattern.  To be clear, the index is above its 100 and 200 day moving averages and, at the moment, in uptrends across all timeframes.  So the aforementioned potential negatives are just that---potential negatives.    Meanwhile, the Dow isn’t close to challenging any support level.

The VIX (11.3) rose fractionally, leaving it below the upper boundary of its short term downtrend and its 100 day moving average (now support; if it remains there through the close on today, it will revert to resistance).  However, it ended back above its 200 day moving average, negating Friday’s break and finished above the lower boundary of a developing very short term uptrend.  I am left questioning whether or not the VIX has bottomed.

The long Treasury was off slightly, ending above its 100 and 200 day moving averages (both support), the lower boundaries of its short term trading range and its long term uptrend and has now made a third short term higher high.  That is a lot of support. 
           
The dollar got whacked hard again, closing in a short term downtrend, below its 100 and 200 day moving averages and below the lower boundary of its short term trading range---if it remains there through the close on Wednesday, it will reset to a downtrend. 
           
 GLD was up again, on volume again, finishing above the lower boundary of its very short term uptrend, above its 100 and 200 day moving averages (both support) and above the upper boundary of its short term trading range (if it remains there through the close on Wednesday, it will reset to an uptrend). 

Bottom line: the S&P continues to struggle, technically speaking, over the short term.  Whether or not this pin action turns into something negative remains to be seen. In the meantime, long term its uptrend remains intact supported by a less technically challenged DJIA. 

TLT, GLD and UUP continue to point to a weak/sluggish economy, lower inflation and soft interest rates.
           
    Fundamental

       Headlines

            The economic releases yesterday were mixed to negative: July US exports and imports fell, July retail and wholesale inventories came in below expectations but the August Dallas Fed manufacturing index was stronger than estimated.

            The devastation on the Texas coast was the main headline yesterday.  While the Market action was somewhat subdued, given the magnitude of the storm, it is apt to have a noticeable impact September economic numbers, oil/gasoline prices and some third quarter earnings reports.  Whether that in turn effects stock prices remains to be seen.

                        And:

Late in the day, North Korea fired a missile that carried over the northern part of Japan---a very provocative move that will likely determine today’s pin action.  Perhaps more important will be how the US and allies respond.

                And:

Bottom line: the economic news is not nearly as positive as the ruling class would have you believe---and Hurricane Harvey’s effect will not help.  The central bankers are threatening to tighten monetary policy, which I doubt; but if they do start unwinding QEInfinity, I don’t believe that will be a plus for stock prices.   So far, the only thing that the GOP dominated congress can pass is gas.  Trump continues to persist in making the achievement of his own agenda more difficult by insulting and threatening the very people he needs to accomplish it.  And now, the North Koreans are poking their finger in Trump’s eye.  Of course, this could all end well, despite the drama.  It better because that is the way stocks are priced.

            The latest from John Hussman (medium):

            More on valuations (medium):

            My thought for the day: the average investor has a major problem selling.  To do so is admitting that he/she made a buying error.  Then if he/she does sell and the stock bounces back, then he/she would have to admit to a second mistake.  I think that this has things backward.  If a stock is moving lower, the worst outcome would be for it to continue to decline and a small loss turns into a big loss.  If the investor makes a sale and the stock rebounds, there is no loss.  His/her portfolio doesn’t know that the stock is up.  All it knows is that it took a small loss.  Further, no transaction whether a purchase or a sale is irrevocable.  There is no rule that says an investor can’t buy back a stock at a price higher than the prior sale.  Surely the original reason(s) for buying the stock incorporated a profit objective sufficiently high that the real consequence will be achieving a smaller profit that would have otherwise occurred.  So the equation is risk taking a major loss or risk making a smaller profit.  That is not an equation.

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Bank of Nova Scotia (NYSE:BNS): Q3 EPS of C$1.66 beats by C$0.01.
Revenue of C$6.89B (+3.8% Y/Y)

Bank of Nova Scotia (NYSE:BNS) declares CAD 0.79/share quarterly dividend, 3.9% increase from prior dividend of CAD 0.76.

Economics

   This Week’s Data

            The August Dallas Fed manufacturing index came in at 17.0 versus expectations of 15.7.

                Month to date retail chain store sales grew faster than in the prior week.

            The June Case Shiller home price index rose 0.1% versus projections of up 0.3%.

   Other

            This is a good discussion of the consequences of a trade war with China.  But the author admits the charges of theft of intellectual property are valid.  True both sides may be hurt by a trade war, but the US is already being hurt.  So do we stand and fight or run away? (medium):

            Here is another good discussion; this one on the politics/economics of tax reform.  I am not sure how qualified the author is to project the results on to stock prices. (medium):

            Housing bubble, part 2 (medium):

            Big bank concentration and counterparty risk (medium and today’s must read):

Politics

  Domestic

A second opinion of Joe Arpaio (medium):

One man’s experience in the Berkley riots (medium):

  International War Against Radical Islam


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Monday, August 28, 2017

Monday Morning Chartology

The Morning Call

8/28/17

The Market
         
    Technical

            From a long term perspective, the S&P remains above its 100 and 200 day moving averages and within uptrends across all timeframes; and that carries the most weight.  However, its short term price performance has gotten a bit squirrelly.  Notice that (1) it is now in a rapidly narrowing pennant formed by the lower boundary of its short term uptrend and the upper boundary of a developing very short term downtrend, (2) if it can’t get above the marked 2454 level, it will have developed the right shoulder of a head and shoulders formation.  None of this means anything unless and until these potentially adverse short term patterns actually play out to the negative.  At the moment, it is just something to watch.



            The long Treasury continues to rise (decline in yield), closing above its 100 and 200 day moving averages and the lower boundaries of its short term trading range and long term uptrend.


           
            Gold rose on good volume, ending above its 100 and 200 day moving averages and in a very short term uptrend---it challenged the lower boundary of that uptrend intraday on Friday but bounce hard closing right under the upper boundary of its short term trading range.



            The dollar took in the snoot on Friday.  It finished below its 100 and 200 day moving average and the upper boundary of its very short term downtrend.  Further, it closed right on the lower boundary of its short term trading range.  If it breaks that level, there is no real support short of its 2014 low (3% lower).



            The VIX got whacked big time last week, ending below the upper boundary of its short term downtrend, its 100 day moving average (now support; if it remains there through the close on Tuesday, it will revert to resistance) and its 200 day moving average (now support; if it remains there through the close on Wednesday, it will revert to resistance).  However, it is still in a very short term uptrend.  I still think that the question is, has the VIX made a bottom?



    Fundamental

       Headlines

            A different look at corporate profits (short):
            More on valuations (medium):

            ***overnight, the Bank of Japan said that it would maintain its accommodative monetary policy; August Chinese industrial profits increased but at a slower pace than anticipated.

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Economics

   This Week’s Data

            July US exports fell 1.3% while imports were down 0.3%.

            July retail inventories declined 0.2% versus the June reading of +0.6%; wholesale inventories rose 0.4% versus the prior reading of +0.6%.

   Other

Politics

  Domestic

Quote of the day:

Nuclear fusion breakthrough (medium):

  International

            US diplomats suffer brain damage in Cuba (medium):

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Saturday, August 26, 2017

The Closing Bell

The Closing Bell

8/26/17

Statistical Summary

   Current Economic Forecast
                       
2016 actual

Real Growth in Gross Domestic Product                          1.6%
Inflation (revised)                                                              1.6%                        Corporate Profits (revised)                                                     4.2%

2017 estimates (revised)

Real Growth in Gross Domestic Product                      -1.25-+0.5%
                        Inflation                                                                         +.0.5-1.5%
                        Corporate Profits                                                            -15-0%



   Current Market Forecast
           
            Dow Jones Industrial Average

                                    Current Trend (revised):  
                                    Short Term Uptrend                                 20875-23304
Intermediate Term Uptrend                     18745-25996
Long Term Uptrend                                  5751-24198
                                               
                        2016    Year End Fair Value                                   12600-12800

                        2017     Year End Fair Value                                   13100-13300

            Standard & Poor’s 500

                                    Current Trend (revised):
                                    Short Term Uptrend     (?)                           2437-2722
                                    Intermediate Term Uptrend                         2226-3000
                                    Long Term Uptrend                                     905-2763
                                               
                        2016   Year End Fair Value                                      1560-1580
                       
2017 Year End Fair Value                                       1620-1640         

Percentage Cash in Our Portfolios

Dividend Growth Portfolio                          59%
            High Yield Portfolio                                     55%
            Aggressive Growth Portfolio                        55%

Economics/Politics
           
The Trump economy is providing an upward bias to equity valuations.   The data flow this week was mixed: above estimates:  month to date retail chain store sales, weekly jobless claims, the August Richmond and Kansas City Feds’ manufacturing indices, the August Markit flash services PMI; below estimates: weekly mortgage and purchase applications, July housing starts, July existing home sales, the July Chicago national activity index, the August Markit flash manufacturing PMI; in line with estimates: July durable goods orders.

But the primary indicators were negative: July housing starts (-), July existing home sales (-) and July durable goods (0).  So this is an easy call---negative.  Score: in the last 98 weeks, twenty-nine were positive, fifty-three negative and sixteen neutral. 

This brings to an end the four week string of neutral ratings.  Last week, I opined that while too early to make the call, that series of mixed data could mean that the economy ceased to deteriorate.  Clearly ‘too early’ were the operative words.  Still there is the question, which was the outlier: this week or the preceding four?

Overseas, the numbers were scarce but the positive news out of Europe continued reinforcing its removal from the global ‘muddle through’ scenario.

On fiscal policy, the good news is that Trump delivered a sound foreign policy speech on Monday; the bad news is that he screwed it up on Tuesday, saying that he would (1) shut down the government if congress didn’t finance the southern wall and (2) terminate NAFTA.  According to The Art of the Deal, threats are all part of the negotiating process.  But if he makes good on those threats, it will likely make enactment of tax reform all the more difficult.

To be sure, Ryan and McConnell, who were joined Thursday night by Gary Cohn, are trying keep the Trump/GOP tax reform on track.  But at this point, if we get reform, it will be in spite of the Donald not because of.  In my opinion, the more he threatens, the more he insults the very people he needs to accomplish his agenda, the less likely he is to achieve it---The Art of the Deal notwithstanding.  I want to be hopeful because his goals are worthy; but I am distressed by his actions, tweets, etc. which, in my opinion, lower the odds of success.

Bottom line: this week’s US economic stats were negative, confirming the pattern for the last 18 months---the economy struggling to keep its head above water. 

Longer term, I remain confident in my recent upgrading our long term secular growth rate assumption by 25 to 50 basis points based on Trump’s deregulation efforts.    However, any further increase in that long term secular economic growth rate assumption stemming from enactment of the Trump/GOP fiscal policy is still on hold as the Washington morality play unfolds. 

Our (new and improved) forecast:

A positive pick up in the long term secular economic growth rate based on less government regulation.  This increase in growth could be further augmented by pro-growth fiscal policies including repeal of Obamacare, tax reform and infrastructure spending; though the odds of that are uncertain and getting worse by the day. 

 Short term, the economy may be flattening out; though that doesn’t alter our recession/stagnation forecast.  A pickup in global economic activity may have halted further deterioration---‘may’ being the operative word.

                       
       The negatives:

(1)   a vulnerable global banking system.  Nothing this week.

(2)   fiscal/regulatory policy.  There was some action this week was on the trade front:   

[a] the first round of negotiations for modernizing the NAFTA trade treaty wrapped up.  There was no statement released; but Trump added his two cents worth, saying that he didn’t believe that much will be accomplished and, if so, he would terminate the agreement. I opined in Thursday’s Morning Call that I thought that this was just part of his negotiating technique.

[b] the US and South Korea began discussions on adjustments to their trade agreement.  My guess is that if things don’t go swimmingly, the Donald will make the same implied threat of trashing the treaty.  Ditto on his negotiating technique.

[c] the US imposed sanctions on several Chinese and Russian individuals/companies that were trading with North Korea in violations of the sanctions on it.

As you know, I have to date considered Trump’s efforts on trade a potential plus for the US economy.  I believe that his point that the US has shouldered more than its fair share of responsibility for improving trade and defending the globe is a valid.  We simply don’t have the resources to play the benign benefactor for the rest of the free world.  Not that we shouldn’t do our part.  But our charity is helping to bankrupt us.  So I accept that playing hard ball with those we are negotiating with is all part of the process.  However, doing it in public, in my opinion, backs our partners against the wall, makes the whole process more difficult and lessens the odds of achieving our goals.  Of course, I didn’t author ‘The Art of the Deal’, so what do I know?

In another negotiating gem, Trump threatened to shut down the government if congress didn’t fund the southern wall.  I understand that building ‘the wall’ was a big campaign pledge; and I understand that he might be willing to go to the mat to get it done.  But again, he has yet to prove that negotiating in public is the way to accomplish his goals; and until it does, I remain a skeptic.  That said, apparently the bluff is working because many believe that a shutdown will occur [I guess that means that it is not a bluff].

On the other hand, hopeful rhetoric came from Paul Ryan who assured us that congress would pass tax reform and from Gary Cohn who promised that Trump would focus on tax reform this fall.  It makes sense to me that tax reform would be easier to accomplish than healthcare reform.  However, [a] the GOP congress is so dysfunctional that I think the burden of proof lies with them; so for the moment I am hopeful but skeptical that republican leadership can deliver, especially if the Donald keeps up his verbal assault on anything that moves on capitol hill and [b] if the final product does not favor the middle class and/or is not revenue neutral, it will likely be more of a negative than a plus.

While I disagree with the author’s more upbeat assessment of the economy, I do think that he nailed the political/fiscal environment (medium):
     
(3)   the potential negative impact of central bank money printing:  The key point here is that [a] the Fed has inflated bank reserves far beyond any comparable level in history and [b] while this hasn’t been an economic problem to date, {i} it still has to withdraw all those reserves from the system without creating any disruptions---a task that I regularly point out it has proven inept at in the past and {ii} it has created or is creating asset bubbles in the stock market as well as in the auto, student and mortgage loan markets.  

Yellen and Draghi have come and gone; and to quote George Costanza, the show was about ‘nothing’.  Current monetary policy was basically ignored by both; so Market expectations should hardly change; though concerns were assuaged by some who feared that the comments by one or both would be hawkish.  Not so.  Jackson Hole was a barely reportable event.  For those who want to agonize their way through the speeches, the links are below.

Yellen’s comments:

Draghi’s comments:

(4)   geopolitical risks: the North Korean/US standoff did another U turn as [a] the US imposed the aforementioned sanctions on Chinese and Russian individuals/companies, [b] the US and South Korea began {annual} war game exercises [c] Russia flew nuclear capable bombers near the Korean peninsula and [d] North Korea cranked up the rhetoric.  We can only hope this remains a slow simmer. 

***overnight, North Korea launches three missiles.

Still there remains plenty of hotspots that could explode any minute: Syria, the Qatar sanctions, US/Russian confrontation, the US sanctions on Chinese and Russian individuals/companies, Trump’s aggressive language on Iran and Venezuela. 

I am not trying to fear monger war; but I do think that Trump’s aggressive attitude toward foreign opposition is overdone and increases the risk of a costly misstep.

(5)   economic difficulties around the globe.  This week, the stats out of Europe were mixed to positive: August German confidence remained high but declined, the August Market EU manufacturing, services and composite PMI’s were better than estimates, second quarter UK GDP was in line but household spending was weak.

In sum, our outlook remains that the European economy is out of the woods.


            Bottom line:  our near term forecast is that the US economy is stagnate though there is a possibility that the improved regulatory outlook and a now growing EU economy may halt any worsening.  Further, if Trump/GOP were to pull off a (near) revenue neutral healthcare reform, tax reform and infrastructure spending on a reasonably timely basis, I would suspect that sentiment driven increases in business and consumer spending would return. 

That said, this week the Donald again snatched defeat from the jaws of victory, completely undoing a positively received foreign policy speech by blasting the ongoing NAFTA negotiations, congressional leadership and threatening to shut down the government---further abetting the demise of the Trump/GOP fiscal program.  I dwell on this because, at the moment, in my opinion, the single biggest factor that could impact a change in the future long term US secular economic growth rate is the success or failure of the Trump/GOP fiscal program.

To be sure, Trump’s drive for deregulation and improved bureaucratic efficiency is and will remain a decided plus.  As you know, I inched up my estimate of the long term secular growth rate of the economy because of it.  But the order of magnitude of its effect I believe is less than the enactment of healthcare, tax reform and infrastructure spending would be.

The Market-Disciplined Investing
         
  Technical

The indices (DJIA 21813, S&P 2443) had another volatile day, smoking to the upside early on, then giving a big part of it back throughout the rest of the day.  Volume was down; breadth improved.  The S&P remains in focus as it (1) toys with the lower boundary of its short term uptrend, (2) is developing a very short term downtrend and (3) also could potentially be forming a head and shoulders pattern.  To be clear, the index is above its 100 and 200 day moving averages and in uptrends across all timeframes.  So the aforementioned potential negatives are just that---potential negatives.  Until there is some follow through on any of them, nothing has changed.  Meanwhile, the Dow isn’t close to challenging any support level.

The VIX (11.2) fell 7 ¾ %, leaving it below the upper boundary of its short term downtrend and (1) its 100 day moving average (now support; if it remains there through the close on Tuesday, it will revert to resistance) and 200 day moving average (now support; if it remains there through the close on Wednesday, it will revert to resistance).  However, it still finished above the lower boundary of a developing very short term uptrend.  I am left questioning whether or not the VIX has bottomed.

The long Treasury was up strong, ending above its 100 and 200 day moving averages (both support), the lower boundaries of its short term trading range and its long term uptrend and has now made a third short term higher high.  That is a lot of support. 
           
The dollar got pounded, closing in a short term downtrend, below its 100 and 200 day moving averages and right on the lower boundary of its short term trading range.  If that support level is successfully challenged, there is not much support for another 3% on the downside. 
           
 GLD was up on volume, finishing above the lower boundary of its very short term uptrend, above its 100 and 200 day moving averages (both support) and pennies away from the upper boundary of its short term trading range. 

Bottom line: the S&P continues to struggle, technically speaking, over the short term.  Whether or not this pin action turns into something negative remains to be seen. In the meantime, long term its uptrend remains intact supported by a less technically challenged DJIA. 

TLT, GLD and UUP continue to point to a weak/sluggish economy, lower inflation and soft interest rates.

               
Fundamental-A Dividend Growth Investment Strategy

The DJIA (21813) finished this week about 67.3% above Fair Value (13032) while the S&P (2443) closed 51.7% overvalued (1610).  ‘Fair Value’ will likely be changing based on a new set of regulatory policies which has led to improvement in the historically low long term secular growth rate of the economy (though its extent could change as the effects become more obvious); but it still reflects the elements of a botched Fed transition from easy to tight money and a ‘muddle through’ scenario in Japan and China.

The US economic stats continue reflect sluggish to little growth.  If I am correct about the economy slowing/stagnating, short term that means Street economic growth forecasts will begin declining.  The question is when; and more important from a Market standpoint, given investor proclivity for interpreting bad news as good news, whether they will even care.  I can’t answer that latter issue except to say that someday, bad news will be bad news.

Much of the Street economic growth expectations are grounded on fiscal policy reform.  Unfortunately, that is in disarray not only because the republican congress can’t get its house in order but also because the Donald keeps shooting himself (and the odds of achieving his fiscal policy goals) in the foot.  What is bothersome is that it is serial behavior that I fear will have the cumulative effect of trashing the odds of any policy success.  I just hope that I am wrong on this call.  The good news is that the worst case scenario is gridlock which is not all that bad.  Nonetheless, as I said, Street economic growth expectations are higher than mine; so if I am correct that in turn means lower equity valuations based on slower growth estimates.

However, fiscal policy is a distant second where it comes to Market impact.  The 800 pound gorilla for equity valuations is central bank monetary policy.  Unfortunately, this crowd continues to confuse, obfuscate and pursue a policy that has destroyed price discovery---and it is being done not to have some potential positive effect on the economy, but to avoid a Market hissy fit.  Not something that I believe is in the best long term interests of the economy or the Markets.    As you know, I have long time believed that the loss of faith in or the dismantling of QE will result in correcting the mispricing and misallocation of assets.

Net, net, my biggest concern for the Market is the unwinding of the gross mispricing and misallocation of assets caused by the Fed’s (and the rest of the world’s central banks) wildly unsuccessful, experimental QE policy.   Stock prices have ballooned and are now at or near historical extremes in valuation; and there is no reason to assume that mean reversion no longer occurs.

Bottom line: the assumptions on long term secular growth in our Economic Model are beginning to improve as we learn about the new regulatory policies and their magnitude.  Plus, there is a tiny ray of hope that fiscal policy could further increase that growth assumption though its timing and magnitude are unknown.  I continue to believe that the end results will be less than the current Street narrative suggests---which means Street models will ultimately will have to lower their consensus of Fair Value for equities. 

Our Valuation Model assumptions are also changing as I raise our long term secular growth rate estimate.  This will, in turn, lift the potential ‘E’ component of Valuations; but there is a decent probability that short term this could be at least partially offset by the reversal of seven years of asset mispricing and misallocation.  In any case, even with the improvement in our growth assumption, the math in our Valuation Model still shows that equities are way overpriced.

                As a long term investor, with equity valuations at historical highs, I would want to own cash in my Portfolio and would use the current price strength to sell a portion of your winners and all of your losers.
               

DJIA             S&P

Current 2017 Year End Fair Value*              13200             1630
Fair Value as of 8/31/17                                  13032            1610
Close this week                                               21813            2443
Over Valuation vs. 8/31
             
55%overvalued                                   20199              2495
            60%overvalued                                   20851              2576
            65%overvalued                                   21502              2656
            70%overvalued                                   22154              2737


* Just a reminder that the Year End Fair Value number is based on the long term secular growth of the earning power of productive capacity of the US economy not the near term   cyclical influences.  The model is now accounting for somewhat below average secular growth for the next 3 to 5 years. 

The Portfolios and Buy Lists are up to date.


Steve Cook received his education in investments from Harvard, where he earned an MBA, New York University, where he did post graduate work in economics and financial analysis and the CFA Institute, where he earned the Chartered Financial Analysts designation in 1973.  His 47 years of investment experience includes institutional portfolio management at Scudder. Stevens and Clark and Bear Stearns, managing a risk arbitrage hedge fund and an investment banking boutique specializing in funding second stage private companies.  Through his involvement with Strategic Stock Investments, Steve hopes that his experience can help other investors build their wealth while avoiding tough lessons that he learned the hard way.