Thursday, October 31, 2019

The Morning Call--It is not the rate cut; it is NotQE


The Morning Call

10/31/19

The Market
         
    Technical

The Averages (27186, 3046) had a good day; the most notable point being that the Dow reset to a very short term uptrend.  However, it remains below its all-time high.  Volume and breadth improved.  The VIX fell 6 ½ %, nearing its 7/25 low (= S&P 7/25 high).

Update on margin debt.

The indices ended solidly above both MA’s and in uptrends across all timeframes.    My assumption remains that momentum is to the upside and yesterday’s pin action supports that view.  But there remain some negatives:  (1) the Dow is now out of sync with the S&P, (2) October 11th gap up opens need to be closed and (3) the S&P created a second gap that needs to be filled.

TLT popped 1 ½ %, ending back above its 100 DMA negating Monday’s break.  It also finished above its 200 DMA and  in uptrends across all time frames.  At  least for the moment, the threat to the loss of momentum has been stopped.  Clearly, follow through is important.  The dollar was down ¼%, finishing right on the lower boundary of its short term uptrend.  Gold rose ½ %, ending back above the upper boundary of that pennant formation. Given the back and forth at the tip of the pennant formation suggests that usual performance following the violation of the tip of the formation is not working in this case.

            Bottom line: yesterday’s pin action across indicators points to an easy Fed---like that has ever been in question.

            Wednesday in the charts.

    Fundamental

       Headlines

            Yesterday’s data was almost entirely upbeat: weekly mortgage and purchase applications were up and the October ADP private payroll report, the advance Q3 GDP growth, the  price indicator and the PCE price index were above expectations while the core PCE was slightly disappointing.

Overseas, September Japanese retail sales were well above consensus (though at least part of that was due to consumer buying in advance of a sales tax hike) while September German unemployment was in line.  On the other hand, October EU consumer confidence, economic sentiment, industrial sentiment and services sentiment were below estimates while business confidence was slightly better.
           
The main headline(s) of the day was the Fed rate cut, the accompanying FOMC statement and Powell press conference.  Once again our monetary gurus managed to give their best imitation of a Bugs Bunny cartoon, hopping in one direction and then the other.  First of all, the Fed cut the Fed Funds rate 25 basis points; hardly a surprise.  But the statement had a hawkish tone to it (the full redlined statement is below along with some analysis) because, you know, the economy is so good (do these guys read some newspaper that I don’t know about?). 

Then, in Powell’s press conference, he provided a more dovish narrative, implying that there would be no rate increases in the foreseeable future.

Not so ‘super Mario’ Draghi.

            ***overnight, Chinese trade officials doubt that Phase One will get done.

            Bottom line: once again the Fed delivered just what the Market wanted.  Although the key to Market buoyancy is not a quarter point cut.  At current low levels, it is irrelevant.  Further a raise in rates would be just as irrelevant.  The important policy is Not QE.  That has been the overriding force for Market direction for the last decade; and it appears to remain the case.  Helped by better than expected earnings season, the calendar lift provided by the Holiday Season, Brexit now off stage and an improving technical picture, it looks a year-end rally is in the cards.  Sit back and enjoy it. 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios
 
           

Economics

   This Week’s Data

      US

            Weekly jobless claims rose 5,000 versus projections of up 2,000.

            September personal income rose 0.3%, in line; personal spending was up 0.2%, also in line; the core PCE was 0.0% versus an anticipated reading of +0.1%.

     International

            October German inflation rate rose 0.1% versus consensus of 0.0%; retail sales were up 0.1% versus up 0.2%.

            September Japanese industrial production came in at +1.4% versus estimates of +0.4%; October consumer confidence was 36.2 versus 35.5; housing starts were -4.9% versus -6.7%

            October UK consumer confidence was -14 versus forecasts of -13.

            The September Chinese manufacturing PMI was 49.3 versus expectations of 49.8; the nonmanufacturing PMI was 52.8 versus 53.9; its trade balance was -$2.06 billion versus 1$1.2 billion.

            The Q3 EU flash GDP growth was 0.2% versus projections of 0.1%; inflation was 0.7% versus 0.7%; core inflation was 1.1% versus 1.0%; unemployment was 7.5% versus 7.4%.

    Other

            Johnson wins approval from Parliament for December elections.

What I am reading today

            How our monetary system evolved.

            Everybody makes investment mistakes.

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Wednesday, October 30, 2019

The Morning Call--It's Fed day


The Morning Call

10/30/19

The Market
         
    Technical
              
The Averages (27071, 3036) rested yesterday; but nothing changed will respect the pin action in each index, i.e. the S&P is above its former all-time high and the Dow is still out of sync with the S&P.  Volume and breadth were weaker.  The VIX was up 5/8 %, but it is still below its 7/25 low (while the S&P remains above its 7/25 high).

The indices still ended solidly above both MA’s and in uptrends across all timeframes.    My assumption remains that momentum is to the upside and that the Dow will challenge its all-time highs (27398).  But there remain some negatives:  (1) the Dow is now out of sync with the S&P, (2) October 11th gap up opens need to be closed and (3) the S&P created a second gap that needs to be filled.

TLT declined nine cents, ending below its 100 DMA for a second day (now support; if it remains there through the close today, it will revert to resistance).  While it finished above its 200 DMA and  in uptrends across all time frames, it is clearly threatening the loss of momentum. 

The dollar was down one cent, but that doesn’t negate the regaining of its upside push.
           
            The liquidity problem is easing but not for the right reasons.

Gold was down ¼ %, ending below the lower boundary of that pennant formation. Any follow through would point more downside.

            Tuesday in the charts.

    Fundamental

       Headlines

Yesterday’s economic stats were mixed but weighed to the negative: September pending home sales were better than anticipated; month to date retail chain store sales were unchanged; the August Case Shiller home price index, September existing home sales and October consumer confidence were below estimates.

Overseas, September UK consumer credit loans and October Japanese CPI were less than projections.

            Two headlines worth noting:

(1)   US trade officials are hedging on US/China trade pact. 

In addition, the Chinese are not happy with Trump’s ban on Chinese 5G equipment,

I believe still that China has no incentive to make a deal before November 2020; unless Trump folds.
                 
(2)   the media wasted a lot of time hashing over the actions/language that will come out of today’s FOMC meeting.  I believe that the Fed’s primarily concern is not inflation, not unemployment but the Market.  As long as that is so, monetary policy will remain accommodative.

The BOJ leads the way.  It is now starting to lend ETF shares to prevent a Market freeze up.

Bottom line: there is still a lot of good news out there: a better than expected earnings season, an easy Fed, Brexit out of the headline.  Plus, we are moving into the season the historically has been the most positive on the calendar.  On the other hand, the economic numbers remain bad and now the odds of a US/China trade deal maybe falling.  That’s a lot for investors to juggle and the Market pin action reflects that. 

Still, as I noted above, I think that stock prices are going higher.  But I view this another opportunity to take a portion of my profits in stocks that are overextended.

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios
 
C.H. Robinson Worldwide (NASDAQ:CHRW): Q3 GAAP EPS of $1.07 misses by $0.07.
Revenue of $3.86B (-10.0% Y/Y) misses by $60M.

Automatic Data Processing (NASDAQ:ADP): Q1 Non-GAAP EPS of $1.34 beats by $0.01; GAAP EPS of $1.34 beats by $0.04.
Revenue of $3.5B (+5.7% Y/Y) misses by $20M.


Economics

   This Week’s Data

      US

            September existing home sales fell 2.1% versus expectations of down 1.0%

            September pending home sales rose 1.5% versus estimates of up 0.9%.

            October consumer confidence came in at 125.9 versus consensus of 128.0

                Weekly mortgage applications rose 0.6% while purchase applications were up 2.3%.

                The October ADP private payroll report showed job gains of 125,000 versus projections of 120,000.

            Advance Q3 GDP growth reading was +1.9% versus forecasts of +1.6%; the price indicator was +1.6 versus +1.9; the PCE price index was +1.5% versus +2.0% while the core PCE was +2.2% versus +2.1%

     International

            September Japanese retail sales grew 7.1% versus expectations of -0.2%.  This surprising result is at least partially due to consumer buying in advance of a sales tax hike.

            September German unemployment came in at 3.1%, in line.

            October EU business confidence was reported at -.19 versus estimates of -.24; consumer confidence was -9.8 versus -8.9; economic sentiment was 100.8 versus 101.1; industrial sentiment was -9.5 versus -8.9; services sentiment was 9.0 versus 9.3.

    Other

What I am reading today
           
Different kinds of stupid

            How long will $1 million last in retirement?

            Another good statistical study on wealth inequality in the US.

            Why investors are so prone to speculate.

Visit Investing for Survival’s website (http://investingforsurvival.com/home) to learn more about our Investment Strategy, Prices Disciplines and Subscriber Service.




Tuesday, October 29, 2019

The Morning Call--Is all this good news priced in?


The Morning Call

10/29/19

The Market
         
    Technical

The Averages (27090, 3039) had another good day.  As I noted previously, the S&P reset its very short term uptrend (the Dow still hasn’t) and pushed through its prior lower high (the Dow still hasn’t); further, it ended the day above its all-time high (the Dow didn’t; if it finishes there at the close today, the break will be confirmed).  Volume and breadth improved.  The VIX actually rallied 3 5/8 %, very unusual on a strong up day in stocks---bouncing away from its 7/25 low as the S&P pushed above its 7/25 high.

The indices still ended solidly above both MA’s and in uptrends across all timeframes.  Plus, as I noted, the S&P closed above its all-time high---which is clearly an added positive.  On the other hand, there are some negatives (1) the Dow is now out of sync with the S&P, (2) the VIX advanced on a strong up day, (3) October 11th gap up opens need to be closed and (4) the S&P gapped up on its open, creating a second gap that needs to be filled.  My assumption remains that momentum is to the upside and that the Dow will challenge its all-time highs (27398) will be challenged; but the aforementioned short term negatives may require some backing and filling before achieving any sustained move to the upside.

            Update on margin debt.

TLT declined 1%, ending below its 100 DMA (now support; if it remains there through the close on Wednesday, it will revert to resistance).  While it finished above its 200 DMA and  in uptrends across all time frames, it is clearly threatening the loss of momentum. 

The dollar was down two cents, but that doesn’t negate the regaining of its upside push.

Gold was down 7/8 %, reversing back below the upper boundary its pennant formation and voiding my conclusion on Friday that it has made a short term bottom and its price is headed higher.  It closed right at the tip of that pennant formation; so, we should get some directional information today.

            Monday in the charts.

    Fundamental

       Headlines

The numbers yesterday continued the trend of negative releases: the September Chicago Fed national activity index, September wholesale inventories and the October Dallas Fed manufacturing index were disappointing while the September trade deficit was smaller than expected.

            Overseas, September EU loan growth and September Chinese industrial profits were below estimates.

            This week will be an eventful one.  Here are the major headlines:

(1)     this will be the busiest week of this earnings season.  To date, it is coming in better than expected,

(2)     a number of key economic datapoints will be released including the payrolls number, Q3 GDP and the October PMI’s,

(3)     the FOMC meets today and tomorrow.  Expectations are high for another 25 basis point rate cut though opinion is divided on what happens next.  The Market has likely priced in the cut; so, if there is a surprise, it will because the [a] Fed cut rates by 50 basis points or [b] it doesn’t cut rates at all.
           
                   More.

      And still more.

***overnight, Johnson wins Labor backing for a December election.

Bottom line: over the weekend, we got good news on Brexit (EU delays deadline) and more happy talk on US/China trade.  Couple that with a better than expected earnings season and almost assured rate cut and the only fundamental negative is the economic dataflow.  So, it is not surprising that investors would be feeling jiggy.  Offsetting that is that stocks are very overvalued, i.e. lots of good news is already priced into many sectors of the Market.  I am using that strength to take a portion of my profits in stocks that are overextended.

            Here are some interesting stats on how Markets perform before and during recessions.

            The pain trade: JP Morgan versus Morgan Stanley.

            Shiller: I see bubbles everywhere.

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios
 
Illinois Tool Works (NYSE:ITW) declares $1.07/share quarterly dividend, in line with previous.

Cummins (NYSE:CMI): Q3 Non-GAAP EPS of $3.83 misses by $0.01; GAAP EPS of $3.97 beats by $0.14.
Revenue of $5.77B (-2.9% Y/Y) misses by $100M.

Mastercard (NYSE:MA): Q3 Non-GAAP EPS of $2.15 beats by $0.14; GAAP EPS of $2.07 beats by $0.06.
Revenue of $4.45B (+14.1% Y/Y) beats by $40M.

Economics

   This Week’s Data

      US

            Month to date retail chain store sales were the same as the prior week.

            The August Case Shiller home price index was unchanged versus projections of +0.3%.

            The October Dallas Fed manufacturing index came in at -5.1 versus estimates of +1.4.

     International

            September UK consumer credit loans fell 14.5% versus forecasts of a 7.1% decline.

            October Japanese CPI was reported at 0.4% versus consensus of 0.5%; core CPI was 0.5% versus 0.7%.

    Other

            China voices support for blockchain.
           
The allure and limits of monetized fiscal deficits.

            Decades of deficits have add instability to the economic environment.

What I am reading today

            Quote of the day.

Visit Investing for Survival’s website (http://investingforsurvival.com/home) to learn more about our Investment Strategy, Prices Disciplines and Subscriber Service.




Monday, October 28, 2019

Monday Morning Chartology


The Morning Call

10/28/19

The Market
         
    Technical

            Friday’s pin action allowed the S&P to reset its very short term uptrend and overcame the last lower high.  However, it still has another lower high to challenge before it can go after its all-time high.  That said, my assumption remains that it will move to that high; and given the relative positive earnings and news flow, a push to a higher all time high seems likely.

            Counterpoint.



            The long bond’s rally was short and contained.  It is now back approaching its 100 DMA.  The good news is that remains above both MA’s and in uptrends across all time frames.  Still this strong chart is in danger of losing momentum.

            Problems in the high yield loan market.

Subprime auto loans are defaulting at the fastest rate since 2008.



            The dollar continued its rebound off the lower boundary of its short term uptrend and 100 DMA.  It is reclaiming the title of the strongest chart of those indices I follow.



            Gold has broken out of the pennant pattern to the upside.  Typically, this means a directional move up.  It still has a series of lower highs to overcome but with a little follow through, it should, at the least challenge its recent high (146.82).  What is a bit mystifying to me is that it is breaking to the upside at the same time the long bond is declining and the dollar rising---both of which are typically negative for the GLD price.



            On Friday, the VIX broke below the lower boundary of a trading range, pushing toward the 9/25 low (= 9/25 high in the S&P).  So, it continues to mirror the S&P, providing little informational value.



    Fundamental

       Headlines

***overnight, EU approves Brexit extension.

            An interview with Jim Bianco (must read).
           

      Subscriber Alert

            In my quarterly review of the financials of United Technologies (UTX),  Donaldson (DCI), Coca Cola (KO) and PepsiCo (PEP), they failed to meet the minimum financial quality standards for inclusion in their respective Universes.  Accordingly, at the Market open, the Dividend Growth Portfolio is Selling its position in UTX, KO and PEP, the High Yield Portfolio is Selling its position in KO  and the Aggressive Growth Portfolio is Selling its position in DCI and PEP.      

            The stock price of Kroger (KR) has traded into its Buy Value Range.  Accordingly, the Dividend Growth Portfolio is Buying a one half position in KR.

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios
 
Illinois Tool Works (NYSE:ITW): Q3 GAAP EPS of $2.04 beats by $0.09.
Revenue of $3.48B (-3.6% Y/Y) misses by $70M.

AT&T (NYSE:T): Q3 Non-GAAP EPS of $0.94 beats by $0.02; GAAP EPS of $0.50 misses by $0.22.
Revenue of $44.58B (-2.5% Y/Y) misses by $490M.

LVMH (OTCPK:LVMHF) confirms its interest in acquiring Tiffany (NYSE:TIF) with an official statement.
"In light of recent market rumors, LVMH Group confirms it has held preliminary discussions regarding a possible transaction with Tiffany," notes the company. "There can be no assurance that these discussions will result in any agreement," reads the statement.
LVMH's offer for Tiffany is believed to be at $120 per share.
Shares of Tiffany (TIF) are up 28.61% premarket to $126.90 to sail past the 52-week high of $117.93. LVMH is up 0.33% in Paris trading.
Economics

   This Week’s Data

      US

            The September Chicago Fed national activity index came in at -0.45 versus forecasts of -0.37.

            The September trade  balance was -$70.4 billion versus consensus of -$76.2 billion.

            September wholesale inventories fell 0.3% versus expectations of +0.2%.

     International

            September EU loan growth was up 3.4% versus estimates of +3.5%.

            September Chinese industrial profits fell 2.1% versus an anticipated decline of 1.2%.

    Other

What I am reading today

           

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