Thursday, October 29, 2015

The Morning Call--Some things never change

The Morning Call

10/29/15

I am off for a weekend with friends in Santa Fe.  No Morning Call tomorrow and no Closing Bell

The Market
         
    Technical

The indices (DJIA 17779, S&P 2090) took off again yesterday.  The Dow ended [a] above its 100 moving average, now support, [b] above its 200 day moving average, reverting from resistance to support, [c] above the upper boundary of its short term downtrend {17036-17751}; if it remains there through the close on Friday, it will re-set to a trading range, [d] in an intermediate term trading range {15842-18295} and [e] in a long term uptrend {5369-19241}.

The S&P finished [a] above its 100 moving average, now support, [b] above its 200 day moving average, now support, [c] in a short term trading range {2016-2104}, [d] in an intermediate term uptrend {1943-2735} [e] a long term uptrend {797-2161}, [e] above its September highs, now representing support.

Volume was flat; breadth was up.  The VIX (14.3) fell 7%,  finishing [a] below its 100 day moving average, now resistance, [b] within a short term downtrend and [c] in intermediate term and long term trading ranges.  Below 13, it will again represent good portfolio insurance.
                               
The long Treasury was down fractionally, apparently not that impressed with a more hawkish Fed and ending above its 100 day moving average, still support, within very short term, short term and intermediate term trading ranges and continues to develop a pennant formation. 

            Italy sells bonds at a negative interest rate (sucker) (medium):

GLD was down, closing [a] above its 100 day moving average, now support [b] in a short term uptrend [c] in intermediate and long term downtrends.  In my opinion, it needs to successfully challenge the upper boundary of its intermediate term downtrend to conclusively establish that a bottom has been made.

Oil was very strong, ending below its 100 day moving average, bouncing off the lower boundary of it very short term trading range but still within very short term and short term trading ranges. 

The dollar was up 1% (it was impressed with the Fed statement), finishing above its 100 moving average day, now support and above its 200 day moving average, now support.  It remains within short and intermediate term trading ranges.  However, it broke above the upper boundary of a very short term downtrend; if it remains there through the close today, it will reset to a trading range.

Bottom line: the Averages continued to push through resistance levels, gradually wiping out barrier after barrier and raising the odds of challenging their all-time highs and the upper boundaries of their long term uptrend.  Although I continue to believe that any of those challenges will be unsuccessful.

    Fundamental

       Headlines

            There were a couple of minor datapoints released yesterday: weekly mortgage and purchase applications were down and so was the September US trade balance.

            However, as you know the focus was on the central banks.  Overseas, the Swedish central bank embarked on its fourth round of QE.

            ***overnight, October German unemployment fell and September Japanese industrial production was better than forecast.

            Of course, center stage and the treat of the day was the Fed statement following this week’s FOMC meeting.  To summarize, it left interest rates unchanged, downplayed its concern about the global economy, noted that job growth had slowed but that household spending and business investment were slightly better. 

All that considered, it was a tad more hawkish than expected.  However, it begs the question what global data and household spending and business investment numbers is the Fed looking at?  As you know, the stats were terrible for eight weeks, followed by a one week reprieve and now it appears that the economy is back on track to under deliver again this week.  Which begs the other question, how can an economy that has been underperforming since the last FOMC meeting be doing better?  

The answer is that we all know that what the Fed says about the economy doesn’t mean diddily.  Mario Draghi could get a headache tomorrow (or more importantly the Dow could be off 1,000 points) and suddenly the ‘tone’ of the Fed would reset to dovish. 
           
            The Fed’s statement (medium):

            Fed whisperer Hilsenrath’s statement (medium):

            The Fed is fighting the wrong war (medium and a must read):
Bottom line:  yesterday’s Fed statement was more of the same inane blather foisted on the public by a Fed whose sole concern is a bunch of whiney butt Wall Street prima donnas in the hope that they will continue to bail the Fed out of an otherwise untenable position---which is to say, keep the Market up despite an economy that is sinking into recession as a result of the gross misallocation of assets and prices brought on by an otherwise senseless experiment in bureaucratic hubris.

I would not chase stock prices at these levels.  Indeed, I would use the strength to take some profits in winners and/or eliminating investments that have been a disappointment.

        
Economics

   This Week’s Data

            Weekly jobless claims rose 1,000 versus expectations of up 6,000.
           
Third quarter GDP came in up 1.5% versus estimates of up 1.7%.

   Other

           
Politics

  Domestic

Why the budget/debt ceiling deal is a bad deal (medium and a must read):

And second round of applause from David Stockman (medium):

  International War Against Radical Islam







Wednesday, October 28, 2015

The Morning Call--Today is all about the Fed

The Morning Call

10/28/15

The Market
         
    Technical

The indices (DJIA 17623, S&P 2071) slipped for a second day, but little changed technically.  The Dow ended [a] above its 100 moving average, now support, [b] right on its 200 day moving averages, which now represents resistance but is the midst of a challenge; how the Dow closes today will determine whether or not it is successful, [c] in a short term downtrend {17036-17751}, [d] in an intermediate term trading range {15842-18295} and [e] in a long term uptrend {5369-19241}.

The S&P finished [a] above its 100 moving average, now support, [b] above its 200 day moving average for the third day, which now represents resistance; if it remains there through the close on today, it will revert to support, [c] in a short term trading range {2016-2104}, [d] in an intermediate term uptrend {1943-2735} [e] a long term uptrend {797-2161}, [e] above its September highs, now representing support.

November Market performance in pre-election years (short):

Volume was flat; breadth was down.  The VIX (15.4) was up slightly,  finishing [a] below its 100 day moving average, now resistance, [b] within a short term downtrend and [c] in intermediate term and long term trading ranges.  Below 13, it will again represent good portfolio insurance.
                               
The long Treasury was up fractionally, ending above its 100 day moving average, still support, within very short term, short term and intermediate term trading ranges and continues to develop a pennant formation. 

GLD was up slightly, closing [a] above its 100 day moving average, now support [b] in a short term uptrend [c] in intermediate and long term downtrends.  In my opinion, it needs to successfully challenge the upper boundary of its intermediate term downtrend to conclusively establish that a bottom has been made.

Oil fell 1.5%, ending below its 100 day moving average but still within very short term and short term trading ranges.  The dollar was up, finishing above its 100 day moving average for the third, reverting it from resistance to support.  However, it remains within a very short term downtrend and short and intermediate term trading ranges.

Bottom line: the Averages spent another day consolidating.  While down, they remained within a fairly tight price range.  In addition, they held recently reset multiple resistance levels.  The one bit of cognitive dissonance is the performance of the small caps and the transportation average which are getting whacked.  Nonetheless, this pin action continues to suggest to me that there is more upside, likely challenging their all-time highs and upper boundaries of their long term uptrends.  Although I continue to believe those challenges will be unsuccessful.
           
    Fundamental

       Headlines

            The economic stats continued to roll over yesterday: September durable goods were bad, so was October consumer confidence and the October Markit flash services PMI was below expectations.  On a more positive note, month to date retail chain store rose modestly versus the prior week and the October Richmond Fed manufacturing index better than anticipated.  The big number was the durable goods report which is a primary indicator.

            There was also an announcement that a budget/debt ceiling deal had been tentatively consummated.  I had noted previously that I thought that this was the high probability outcome.  Nevertheless, it does remove a potential headache for investors.

The Club for Growth on the budget/debt ceiling deal (short):

                Overseas, the dataflow remained slow; the only stat was third quarter UK GDP growth which slowed from its second quarter rate.

                ***overnight, Swedish central bank quadrupled down on QE.

Bottom line: another day’s data and the more it looks like last week’s upbeat stats were an outlier.  Of course, this is a busy week, so that could change; but we now have half of all the datapoints that will released---and the trend is not good.  On the other hand, we should expect another dose of Fed pabulum today and that will likely inspire another investor walk through the tulips. 

I would not chase stock prices at these levels.  Indeed, I would use the strength to take some profits in winners and/or eliminating investments that have been a disappointment.
           
            The problem with eternal bullishness (medium):

            Have emerging markets bottomed? (short):

       
Economics

   This Week’s Data

            Month to date retail chain store sales were up versus the prior week.

            The August Case Shiller home price index was in line.

            The October Markit flash services PMI came in at 54.4 versus expectations of 55.3.
           
            October consumer confidence was reported at 97.6 versus estimates of 102.5

            The October Richmond Fed manufacturing index came in at -1 versus projections of -2.

                Weekly mortgage applications fell 3.5% while purchase applications were down 3.0%.

                The September US trade deficit was $58.2 billion versus forecasts of $67.2 billion.

   Other

            The tale of two economies: what the models say and what the data say (medium and a must read):
           
            The pickle in which the global financial system finds itself (medium):

Politics

  Domestic

Summers and Mankiw on the Cadillac tax (medium):

  International

            China’s reaction to US ships navigating inside the 12 mile limit (medium):

            US policy in Syria---who’s on first? (medium):





Tuesday, October 27, 2015

Today's Investing for Survival

Something most investors can’t accept (medium):


The Morning Call--the numbers turn negative again

The Morning Call

10/27/15

The Market
         
    Technical

The indices (DJIA 17623, S&P 2071) took a rest yesterday.  The Dow ended [a] above its 100 moving average for the third day, reverting from resistance to support, [b] above its 200 day moving averages, which now represents resistance; if it remains there through the close on Wednesday, it will revert to support, [c] in a short term downtrend {17036-17751}, [d] in an intermediate term trading range {15842-18295} and [e] in a long term uptrend {5369-19241}.

The S&P finished [a] above its 100 moving average for the third day, reverting from resistance to support, [b] above its 200 day moving average for the second day, which now represents resistance; if it remains there through the close on Wednesday, it will revert to support, [c] above the upper boundary of its a short term downtrend for the third day, re-setting to a trading range {2016-2104}, [d] in an intermediate term uptrend {1939-2731} [e] a long term uptrend {797-2161}, [e] back above its September highs, now representing support.

Market performance in November and December following a strong October (short):

Volume was down as was breadth.  The VIX (15.3) was up 6%,  finishing [a] below its 100 day moving average, now resistance, [b] within a short term downtrend and [c] in intermediate term and long term trading ranges.  Below 13, it will again represent good portfolio insurance.
               
The long Treasury was up fractionally, ending above its 100 day moving average, still support, within very short term, short term and intermediate term trading ranges and continues to develop a pennant formation. 

GLD dropped fractionally, closing [a] above its 100 day moving average, now support [b] in a short term uptrend [c] in intermediate and long term downtrends.  In my opinion, it needs to successfully challenge the upper boundary of its intermediate term downtrend to conclusively establish that a bottom has been made.

Bottom line: with the Averages back in extremely overbought territory and with two lousy economic reports, I expected a bigger retreat in prices than we got yesterday---yet another sign that momentum and support remain.  In addition, the relative benign pin action allowed the resetting of multiple resistance levels to more positive readings.  So to me, the balance of evidence suggests more upside for the Averages, likely challenging their all-time highs and upper boundaries of their long term uptrends.  Although I continue to believe those challenges will be unsuccessful.
           
    Fundamental

       Headlines

            Two US datapoints were released yesterday; September new home sales fell significantly and the October Dallas Fed manufacturing index was down more than twice what was expected.  Clearly not great numbers; and a bit disappointing after last week’s positive dataflow.   Other US development included:
(1)   the FOMC meets this week starting today and wrapping up on Wednesday.  I expect nothing but the usual lengthy ‘on the one hand/on the other hand’ bulls**t followed by the decision to do nothing.  Got to keep that Market happy.

                 Bernanke’s myth of a great depression (medium):

                 More QE and higher stock prices (medium):

(2)   it also looks like we will get a budget deal/debt ceiling expansion combo this week.  I haven’t spent much time on this because I assumed that it would occur [the evening news cycle notwithstanding] and that it would look the same as every other deal that has been foisted on the taxpayer in the last two decades---which is to say, more and more and more spending with no reform of any kind---which is one of the reasons the US economy is in the miserable state that is.

            ***overnight, it looks like the deal has been consummated.

            Overseas, one minor stat was released: October German business morale fell slightly.
           
            ***overnight, third quarter UK GDP growth slowed from the second quarter rate,

Bottom line: while this will be a very busy week for economic releases, we are off to a very inauspicious start.  Of course, (1) the increasing odds of a budget deal, takes the worry of a government shutdown off investors’ minds; although longer term, it represents our ruling class’s habitual fiscally irresponsible behavior and does nothing to improve our economic growth prospects.  (2) likewise, the assumed continued temerity of the Fed to upset the Markets keeps investors everywhere feeling warm and fuzzy.  As you can probably guess, I don’t see anything positive about either; but so far, mine has been the wrong take. 

That said, I would not chase stock prices at these levels.  Indeed, I would use the strength to take some profits in winners and/or eliminating investments that have been a disappointment.

            Update on this earnings season (short):

       
Economics

   This Week’s Data

            September new home sales fell 11.5% versus expectations of down 0.5%,

            The October Dallas Fed manufacturing index came in at -12.7 versus estimates of -6.0.

            September durable goods orders fell 1.2% versus forecasts of -1.0%; in addition, August was revised down from -2.0% to -3.0%.  Ex transportation, the September number was -0.4% versus consensus of -0.1%; revised August figures went from 0% to -0.9%.

   Other

            China’s raging bond bubble (medium):

            The trend in Chinese consumption (medium):

Politics

  Domestic

  International

            Update on progress (or the lack thereof) in Greece (medium):

                China/US faceoff in South China Sea---what could go wrong? (medium):






Monday, October 26, 2015

Monday Morning Chartology

The Morning Call

10/26/15

The Market
         
    Technical

       Monday Morning Chartology

            The S&P challenged multiple resistance levels last week: (1) its September high [resistance] which will revert to support today if the S&P closes above it, (2) the 100 day moving average [resistance] which will revert to support if the S&P closes above it today, (3) the upper boundary of its short term downtrend, which will re-set to a trading range, if the S&P closes above it today and (4) the 200 day moving average [resistance and is the wiggly red line in the chart] which will revert to support if the S&P closes above it on Wednesday.  

            At this point, it sounds trite to keep repeating that the S&P will likely challenge its all-time high (2134) and/or the upper boundary of its long term uptrend (2161).  Looking at the chart there is virtually no resistance between Friday’s close and those levels.  However, I will also repeat that I think that those challenges will be unsuccessful.

The Halloween indicator (medium):





                The long Treasury remains above its 100 day moving average, within very short term, short term and intermediate term trading ranges and continues to build a pennant formation.  Just looking at last week’s pin action, bond investors were not impressed with the ECB/Bank of China’s latest QE moves.




            Gold was equally unimpressed with the opportunity offered by lower interest rates or future inflation.  That said, its chart has improved markedly in the last month---it having re-set its 100 day moving average from resistance to support and its short term trend from a trading range to an uptrend.  I would like to own some gold in our Portfolios but given the stream of false breakouts over the last year, I am unwilling to make a commitment until it successfully challenges its intermediate term downtrend.



            You can clearly see the impact on the dollar of the aforementioned QEInfinity moves.  It is challenging its 100 day moving average and a very short term downtrend.  As I noted last week, US companies don’t want to see this because of the negative impact of currency appreciation on their earnings---another excuse for the Fed not to raise rates.



            As you might expect, the VIX (14.4) reflects the recent run in stock prices, falling below its 100 day moving average and re-setting its short term trend to down.  Oddly, it was actually up in the face of Friday’s strong market performance.  I continue to think that it offers value as portfolio insurance in the 12-13 range.



    Fundamental

            Last week’s economic was upbeat both here and abroad for the first time in eight weeks.  At home pluses included the October housing market index, September housing starts, month to date retail chain store sales, weekly jobless claims, September existing home sales, the October Kansas City Fed manufacturing index and the October Markit manufacturing PMI flash index.  Negatives included September building permits, the October Chicago national activity index and September leading economic indicators.  So those numbers were positive by a substantial margin.  The primary indicators, however, were evenly divided, two up (September housing starts and existing home sales), two down (September building permits and September leading economic indicators).  Still this was a good week.  Now we just need more of the same stuff.

            Overseas, the dataflow was also upbeat with the most significant developments being the repeat of the ‘whatever is needed’ meme from Draghi and the next day follow up from the Bank of China lowering interest rates and bank reserve requirements. 

At the risk of beating a dead horse, I was a whole lot less impressed with this newest round of QE than the rest of the Market for one simple reason---except for QEI, QE hasn’t worked anywhere in any amount, so to do more reminds me of the definition of insanity, i.e. doing the same thing over and over but expecting a different result.

            Central bankers’ death wish (medium):

            Why lower rates won’t help China (short):


Bottom line:  don’t chase stock prices at these levels.  Indeed, use the strength to take some profits in winners and/or eliminating investments that have been a disappointment.

            Bank of America on playing the rally (medium):

       Investing for Survival
   
            The inevitable periods of underperformance:


    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios
 
Economics

   This Week’s Data

   Other

Politics

  Domestic

  International

            Update on Portugal (medium):

            Update on the refugee crisis in Europe (medium):





Friday, October 23, 2015

The Morning Call--If first you don't succeed, try and try again

The Morning Call

10/23/15

The Market
         
    Technical

The indices (DJIA 17489, S&P 2052) staged a Titan III shot yesterday.  The Dow ended [a] above its 100 moving average; if it remains above that MA though the close on Monday, it will revert from resistance to support, [b] below its 200 day moving averages, which represents resistance, [c] in a short term downtrend {17052-17775}, [d] in an intermediate term trading range {15842-18295}and [e] in a long term uptrend {5369-19175}.

The S&P finished [a] above its 100 moving average; if it remains above that MA through the close on Monday, it will revert from resistance to support, [b] below its 200 day moving average, which represents resistance, [c] above the upper boundary of its a short term downtrend {1981-2042}; if it remains above this boundary through the close on Monday, the trend will re-set to a trading range, [d] in an intermediate term uptrend {1939-2731} [e] a long term uptrend {797-2145}, [e] back above its September highs one day after voiding a prior break; I am scoring it neutral,  subject to follow through.

Volume was up; breadth positive.  The VIX (14.4) was down 13%,  finishing [a] below its 100 day moving average, now resistance, [b] within a short term downtrend and [c] in intermediate term and long term trading ranges.  Below 13, it will again represent good portfolio insurance.
                               
The long Treasury was up fractionally, ending above its 100 day moving average, still support, within very short term, short term and intermediate term trading ranges and continues to develop a pennant formation. 

GLD dropped, closing [a] above its 100 day moving average, now support [b] in a short term uptrend [c] in intermediate and long term downtrends.  In my opinion, it needs to successfully challenge the upper boundary of its intermediate term downtrend to conclusively establish that a bottom has been made.

Bottom line: yesterday’s pin action didn’t leave a lot of doubt about where the momentum lies.  To be sure, the time element still remains in the Averages break of their 100 day moving averages as well as the S&P move above the upper boundary of its short term downtrend.  However, volume and breadth support yesterday’s price move. 

That said, bonds and gold seemed unfazed, which is a bit surprising.  In addition, the dollar was strong, reflecting the currency implications of Draghi’s news conference yesterday (more QE; see below).   That is not great news for corporate profits; again meaning the E part of P/E will likely continue to suffer---seemingly not great for stocks.  

The odds of an assault by the Averages on their all-time highs have taken another step higher; although I continue to believe those challenges will be unsuccessful.

    Fundamental

       Headlines

            Yesterday was busy on the economic data release front: the good news was that weekly jobless claims rose less than anticipated, September existing home sales were strong and the Kansas City Fed manufacturing index was off less than projected; the bad news was September leading economic indicators fell and the September Chicago national activity index was considerably worse than expected.  So something of an upbeat day which also translates into the first plus week of dataflow in the last eight.  On a less positive note, the primary indicators were mixed---2 up and 2 down.

            However, two developments put those numbers in the rear seat.

(1)   great earnings reports from industry leaders: McDonalds, 3M and after the close tech giants Amazon, Alphabet [formerly Google] and Microsoft.

(2)    round three of Draghi’s ‘whatever is necessary’ theme.  In a press conference yesterday morning, he suggested that more QE and possible negative interest rates were on the table for the ECB’s December meeting.   ‘More’ as in ‘whatever is necessary’ hasn’t worked so far; so the only obvious solution is to double down.

Goldman on Draghi’s comments (medium):

The paradox of negative interest rates (medium and a must read):

And when I say double down, not only does it mean easier money for the EU but also [a] likely raises the odds that other central banks will follow suit {see China below}, [b] puts our ol’ buddy Janet in a bit of a quandary and [c] causes US companies more currency translation problems---something this earnings season points out that they don’t need more of.

Of course, the last thing the Fed wants is to cause US companies even more currency problems and/or drive the dollar still higher because that just raises the chance of a recession in the US.  But we may have reached the point at which what the Fed wants [or can control] doesn’t matter.  In short, it may no longer have the choice of or threat of a rate hike. 
            ***overnight, the October EU Markit composite PMI was better than expected as were many of the sub-categories as well as the individual country aggregate and sub-category numbers; the Bank of Japan lowered its country’s 2015 GDP growth forecast; South Korea reported a better than anticipated third quarter GDP; and last but not least, China lowered key interest rates as well as bank reserve requirements.

Bottom line: given the fact that the Fed is largely comprised of a bunch of spineless doves, not having to worry about whether or not to raise rates may not make a difference.  But my point is that it has allowed itself for too long to be controlled by about a bunch of whiney butt, wimp investors who cry when rate hikes are threatened and may soon find itself in a position where it can’t raise rates in the face of another potential round of aggressive monetary easing (competitive devaluation) by multiple central banks.  The risk is that we may find ourselves in the final stage of QEInfinity being pushed to its logical extreme: deflation/recession.

            The QE fantasy world (medium and a must read):

Net, net, don’t chase stock prices at these levels.  Indeed, use the strength to take some profits in winners and/or eliminating investments that have been a disappointment.

            The latest from Doug Kass (medium):

            The latest from David Stockman (medium):

            The latest from Lance Roberts (medium):

       Investing for Survival
   
            What to do if you are under invested and retiring (medium):
   

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios
 
Procter & Gamble (NYSE:PG): FQ1 EPS of $0.98 beats by $0.03.
Revenue of $16.53B (-11.9% Y/Y) misses by $640M.

V.F. (NYSE:VFC): Q3 EPS of $1.07 misses by $0.05.
Revenue of $3.61B (+2.6% Y/Y) misses by $70M.

C. R. Bard (NYSE:BCR): Q3 EPS of $2.28 beats by $0.05.
Revenue of $865.7M (+4.3% Y/Y) beats by $12.77M

Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT): FQ1 EPS of $0.67 beats by $0.08.
Revenue of $21.7B (-6.5% Y/Y) beats by $670M.

AT&T (NYSE:T): Q3 EPS of $0.74 beats by $0.05.
Revenue of $39.1B (+19% Y/Y) misses by $1.32B.

Franklin Resources (NYSE:BEN): FQ4 EPS of $0.59 misses by $0.18.
Revenue of $1.87B (-13.4% Y/Y) misses by $30M.


Economics

   This Week’s Data

            September existing home sales rose 4.7% versus expectations of a less than 1% increase.

            September leading economic indicators fell 0.2% versus estimates of being unchanged.

            The October Kansas City Fed manufacturing index came in at -1 versus -8 recorded in September.

   Other

            The 401k crisis is getting worse (medium):

                Auto loans join student loans as a matter of concern (medium):

Politics

  Domestic

The Club for Growth on Ben Carson (short):

Will Puerto Rico get bailed out (medium)?

  International

            The rise of Portuguese defiance (medium):