Saturday, March 30, 2019

The Closing Bell


The Closing Bell

3/30/19

Statistical Summary

   Current Economic Forecast
                       
2018 estimates (revised)

Real Growth in Gross Domestic Product                          1.5-2.5%
                        Inflation                                                                          +1.5-2%
                        Corporate Profits                                                                10-15%

            2019

Real Growth in Gross Domestic Product                          1.5-2.5%
                        Inflation                                                                          +1.5-2.5%
                        Corporate Profits                                                                5-6%


   Current Market Forecast
           
            Dow Jones Industrial Average

                                    Current Trend (revised):  
                                    Short Term Trading Range                      21691-26646
Intermediate Term Uptrend                     14233-30424
Long Term Uptrend                                  6585-29947
                                               
2018     Year End Fair Value                                   13800-14000

                        2019     Year End Fair Value                                   14500-14700

            Standard & Poor’s 500

                                    Current Trend (revised):
                                    Short Term Trading Range                          2349-2942
                                    Intermediate Term Uptrend                         1353-3163                                                          Long Term Uptrend                                     913-3191
                                                           
2018 Year End Fair Value                                       1700-1720         
                        2019 Year End Fair Value                                     1790-1810

Percentage Cash in Our Portfolios

Dividend Growth Portfolio                           56%
            High Yield Portfolio                                     55%
            Aggressive Growth Portfolio                        56%

Economics/Politics
           
The Trump economy is a neutral for equity valuations.   The data flow this week was negative: above estimates: weekly mortgage/purchase applications, February new home sales, weekly jobless claims, final March consumer sentiment, month to date retail chain store sales, the March Dallas and Kansas City Feds’ manufacturing indices, the January trade deficit, January PCE; below estimates: February housing starts and building permits, the January Case Shiller home price index, February pending home sales, January personal income, January personal spending, March consumer confidence, February Chicago Fed national activity index, March Chicago PMI,  the March Richmond Fed manufacturing index, Q4 2018 GDP growth, price deflator, corporate profits and trade deficit; in line with estimates: none.

The primary indicators were really negative:  February housing starts/building permits (-), Q4 GDP (-), January personal income (-), January personal spending (-). February new home sales (+).  I rate the week negative.  Score: in the last 181 weeks, fifty-eight positive, eighty-three negative and forty neutral.

Given the last month’s data, the earlier hope I had that the US economy could be stabilizing is fading fast.  Plus other developments seem to be pointing to a world that is either in or on the cusp of a recession: (1) deteriorating global stats, (2) falling bond yields and an ever flattening yield curve, (3) the sudden about face of Fed policy while it forecasts a sound economy and (4) even worse, the new push by the administration for a fifty basis point cut in the Fed Funds rate. 

For the moment, I am sticking with my assumption that the US can continue to grow albeit at a reduced rate even if there is a global recession.  However, the yellow light is now flashing.

The data from overseas this week was negative, though just slightly.  That could potentially change if there is a decent US/China trade deal; however, those prospects appear uncertain, the happy talk out of administration officials notwithstanding. Net, net, the global economy remains an impediment to our own economy’s struggle to sustain growth.

My forecast (for the moment):

Less government regulation, (hopefully) getting out of the Middle East quagmire and possible help from a fairer trade regime are pluses for the long-term US secular economic growth rate.

However, the explosion in deficit spending, exemplified by Trump’s new budget proposal, at a time when the government should be running a surplus, is a secular negative.  My thesis on this issue is that at the current high level of national debt, the cost of servicing the debt more than offsets (1) any stimulative benefit of tax cuts and (2) the secular positives of less government regulation and fairer trade [at least on the agreements that have been renegotiated].

On a cyclical basis, the economic growth rate is slowing as the effects of the tax cut wear off and the global economy decelerates.  However, even if the economy were to improve cyclically, it will still be unable to overcome the secular negative of too much debt to service.

       The negatives:

(1)   a vulnerable global banking [financial] system.
              
Problems in Germany.

(2) fiscal/regulatory policy. 

There were positive headlines on the US/China trade talks, though I don’t think that the happy talk out of Trump officials can be trusted.  Not that there won’t be a good outcome; I just don’t think that the Trump narrative has any informational value. 

In addition, I am becoming more convinced that even if we got a great trade deal today, it won’t prevent the global economy from rolling over.  Certainly, it could have a mitigating effect on the magnitude of any decline; and of course, long term, it would be a major plus for secular growth.  But as I said above, speculating of a US/China trade deal is a waste of time.

The other item was the White House campaign to talk the Fed Funds rate down.  Earlier in the week, Trump nominated Stephen Moore to a seat on the Fed.  He prompted began a series media interviews and editorials pushing for a fifty basis point cut in interest rates.  Then on Friday, Larry Kudlow went on TV espousing a similar action.

First of all, on its face, it is an absurdity to be advocating such a move while at the same time telling country how great the economy is.  Second and probably more important, it is a political statement not an economic one.  The universe knows that incumbents don’t do well in elections when the economy is in the tank: and, in my opinion, the more Trump pushes for lower rates, the more frightened he [and others in his administration] is that the economy is rolling over.

Bottom line: whatever the impact that might come from a US/China trade deal, irresponsible deficit spending will restrain US economic growth.

(2)   the potential negative impact of central bank money printing:  The key point here is that [a] the Fed has inflated bank reserves far beyond any comparable level in history and [b] while this hasn’t been an economic problem to date, {i} it still has to withdraw all those reserves from the system without creating any disruptions---a task that I regularly point out it has proven inept at in the past and {ii} it has created  asset bubbles in the stock market as well as in the auto, student and mortgage loan markets.  

While there was little news this week, the headlines were still dominated by the debate on the logic behind the Fed’s dovish turn---the major issues being the strength of the US/global economy and efficacy of an easier monetary policy.  In addition, there was a discussion of how much weight to give the current rise in bond prices and the flattening of the yield curve.

But you know all that because I have been addressing those issues in almost all the Morning Calls this week.  So, I will just repeat my conclusions.

[a] the 180 degree turn in policy in the last three months {i} demonstrates the extent to which the Fed has been kidding itself/you/me about the strength of the economy and {ii} clearly supports my long term thesis that the Fed has never in its history managed a successful transition from easy to normal monetary policy,

[b] easy money will do little to improve economic growth but, if history is any guide, will keep investors buying every asset in sight.

I believe that the Fed has finally painted itself into a box from which there is no easy exit: [a] if inflation accelerates, the Fed will ultimately be compelled to tightening policy irrespective of Market reaction or [b] if economic growth continues to decelerate, any additional QE will prove ineffective in halting the slowdown; and Markets don’t like recessions.  (must read):

(3)   geopolitical risks: 

Europe is a mess with Brexit [which now has a very short shelf life], riots in France and fiscal policy discord in Italy; and it continues to be reflected in a negative way in the economic stats.

You never know how the situations in Venezuela and Israel play out.

(4)   economic difficulties around the globe.  The stats this week were just slightly negative, but continued to point to a global economic slowdown or worse:  

[a] February German retail sales were in line and the March German business climate index was better than expected; Q4 UK business investment fell less than expected while GDP was in line; the Q4 EU business confidence index, the industrial sentiment index and the economic sentiment indicator were below consensus while the consumer confidence index was in line,

Permanent recession in Italy (must read):

[b] January/February Chinese industrial profits declined.
   
[c] the January Japanese all activity index was below estimates; the February unemployment rate, industrial production, construction orders and housing starts were better than anticipated while retail sales disappointed.

            Bottom line:  on a secular basis, the US economy is growing at an historically below average rate.  Although some recent policy changes are a plus for secular growth, they are being offset by totally irresponsible fiscal and monetary policies. 
          
Cyclically, the US economy is slowing as evidenced by the data from both here and abroad.  Further, the reversal of Fed policy and plunge in interest rates put an exclamation point of that notion.

          Finally, any move to a more dovish stance by the Fed is not likely to have an impact, cyclical or secular, on the economy.  QE II, III, and Operation Twist didn’t, and QE IV probably won’t either.   Meaning that if the Fed thinks backing off QT or lowering the Fed Funds rate will help support economic growth, in my opinion, it will be disappointed.

The Market-Disciplined Investing
           
  Technical

The Averages (DJIA 25928, S&P 2834) had another great day, with the S&P closing above 2800/2811/2815 level.  Clearly, it is making another attempt to break free of this level’s the gravitational pull.  However, given (1) all the back and forth around 2800/2811/2815 since last October (2) plus the fact that Friday was the last trading day of the quarter and institutions were marking up their portfolios for performance purposes, I am not totally convinced that this latest move has a clear path to the S&P’s all-time high.  Also holding me back is that the Dow remains in a very short term downtrend and the pin action in the dollar and the long bond are negatives.  Follow through.

Volume rose and breadth improved.

The VIX declined 10 3/8 %, finishing in the lower zone of the trading range marked by the 200 DMA on the upside and the double bottom on the downside---whose violation would be a plus for stocks.

The long bond was down slightly on volume.  The good news is that it is maintaining its upward momentum and move toward its all-time high.  The bad news is that last Friday’s gap up open still needs to be closed.
               
The dollar rose. The good news is that it remains above the upper boundary of the November to present trading range (a move above its prior high would put this trading range in the dust bin), above both MA’s and in a short term uptrend.  The bad news is that it gapped up on Wednesday’s open.

GLD recovered a little of its big Thursday selloff---which was the first really negative development in some time.  The good news is that it is in a solid uptrend and yesterday was a gap down open.  The bad news is that it is nearing a former minor double bottom and is developing a head and shoulders pattern.

Bottom line: certainly on a price basis, Friday’s pin action enhances the probability of the S&P moving higher versus the odds of a failure to sustain the 2800/2811/2815 level.  However, many other indicators suggest otherwise. So, I await follow through.
                              

TLT and UUP continue to point to lower interest rates/a weaker economy.  GLD is taking a hit from the strong dollar.
           
                Friday in the charts.

Fundamental-A Dividend Growth Investment Strategy

The DJIA and the S&P are well above ‘Fair Value’ (as calculated by our Valuation Model), the improved regulatory environment and the potential pluses from trade notwithstanding.  At the moment, the important factors bearing on Fair Value (corporate profitability and the rate at which it is discounted) are:

(1)   the extent to which the economy is growing---which the trend in the dataflow suggests is meager.  Plus the stampede by the central banks to ease along with the pin action in the global bond markets, the dollar and gold are confirming further economic weakness, perhaps, even recession.  That is not my call, at the moment; but it is subject to change.

In short, the economy is not a negative [yet] but it is not a positive at current valuation levels.
           
(2)   the success of current trade negotiations.  If Trump is able to create a fairer political/trade regime, it would almost surely be a plus for secular earnings growth.  While there was more happy talk this week on the US/China trade negotiations, unfortunately, the entire narrative on this issue has been so muddied by the obvious political/Market oriented nature of the administration’s comments that I, for one, have no idea about the true state of the current trade talks with China. 

As you know, I have been somewhat skeptical that a comprehensive agreement on Chinese industrial policy and IP theft could be reached in the short term.   

My concern is not that we get no deal or a small deal but that the Chinese out maneuver Trump and he gives away the need for progress on industrial policy and IP theft just to get a deal.

(3)   the resumption of QE by the global central banks.  If QEII, QEIII and Operation Twist are any guide, the latest Fed move should be a big plus for the Markets, at least in the short term.

(4)   current valuations. the Averages have recouped much of their October to December loss and appear on their way to regaining even more.  Since they were grossly overvalued [as determined by my Valuation Model] in October, they are now just slightly less grossly overvalued.  That said, if the latest central bank liquidity surge continues, valuations will remain irrelevant.

As prices continue to rise, I will again be focusing on those stocks that trade into their Sell Half Range and act accordingly.

Bottom line: fiscal policy is negatively impacting the E in P/E, although a new regulatory environment is a plus.  Any improvement in our trade regime with China should have a positive impact on secular growth and, hence, equity valuations---if it occurs.  More important, a global central bank ‘put’ has returned and, if history is any guide, will almost assuredly be a plus for stock prices. 

            As a reminder, my Portfolio’s cash position didn’t reach its current level as a result of the Valuation Models estimate of Fair Value for the Averages.  Rather I apply it to each stock in my Portfolio and when a stock reaches its Sell Half Range (overvalued), I reduce the size of that holding.  That forces me to recognize a portion of the profit of a successful investment and, just as important, build a reserve to buy stocks cheaply when the inevitable decline occurs.

DJIA             S&P

Current 2019 Year End Fair Value*              14600             1800
Fair Value as of 3/31/19                                 14074            1731
Close this week                                               25928            2834

* Just a reminder that the Year End Fair Value number is based on the long term secular growth of the earning power of productive capacity of the US economy not the near term   cyclical influences.  The model is now accounting for somewhat below average secular growth for the next 3 to 5 years. 

The Portfolios and Buy Lists are up to date.








Friday, March 29, 2019

The Morning Call--S&P out of sync with other markets


The Morning Call

3/29/19

The Market
         
    Technical
              
The Averages (DJIA 25717, S&P 2815) ended higher on the day, though the S&P closed below the lower boundary of its very short term uptrend for a second day, voiding that trend.  However, it remained above 2800/2811 and right on the 2815 level.  Clearly, it is holding above my designated support level 2800 but is struggling in the 2811/2815 zone.  On the plus side, the S&P has spent the bulk of the time in the 2800/2811/2815 threshold at the upper end or above it/them.  That weighs in favor of a upside break.  However, volume, breadth and the pin action in the Dow, the dollar and the long bond are negatives.  Follow through.

Volume declined and breadth finally improved.

The VIX declined 4 ¾ %, leaving it at about the mid-point between a double bottom and its 200 DMA---offering little informational value.

The long bond was up 3/8 %.  The good news is that it is maintaining its upward momentum and move toward its all-time high.  The bad news is that last Friday’s gap up open still needs to be closed.

The dollar rose 3/8 %. The good news is that it remains above the upper boundary of the November to present trading range, above both MA’s and in a short term uptrend.  The bad news is that yesterday was a gap up open.

GLD was down 1 ½ %.  The good news is that it is in a solid uptrend and yesterday was a gap down open.  The bad news is that it is nearing a former minor double bottom.

Bottom line: certainly on a price basis, it looks like the probability of the S&P moving higher is greater than the odds of a failure to sustain the 2800/2811/2815 level.  However, many other indicators suggest otherwise. So, I continue to await follow through.
                              

TLT and UUP continue to point to lower interest rates/a weaker economy.  GLD is taking a hit from the strong dollar.

            Thursday in the charts.

    Fundamental

       Headlines

            Yesterday’s economic data weighed to the negative side: Q4 GDP, price deflator and corporate profits and February pending home sales were disappointing while weekly jobless claims and the March Kansas City Fed manufacturing index were better than anticipated.

            Ditto overseas: March EU business confidence, industrial sentiment and economic sentiment indices were below projections while consumer confidence index was in line (-7.2).

            This doesn’t raise confidence---concerning rhetoric from the BIS and IMF (must read):
                
            More speculation on the US/China trade deal.
           
            EU embraces China’s ‘belt and road initiative’.
           
            Bottom line: the possibility of a trade deal with China remains uncertain; but a favorable resolution would be undoubtedly be a plus for long term secular growth.  However, if it were signed, sealed and delivered today, it may be too late to help the potential cyclical growth problem facing the US and the rest of the world.  Certainly, the dataflow is pointing to further deceleration in growth and perhaps recession; and bond and dollar investors are clearly concerned. 

A key to the outcome is whether or not the central banks have the ammo to counter such a development; and even if they do, whether they can use it effectively.  On the latter, history says that they won’t.  This time may be different.  Equity investors believe that it is.  So, until, as and if they are disabused of that notion, stock prices will likely continue to rise.  If so, I will continue to make sales of any stock that trades into its Sell Half Range.

            The decline in yields is just a start.

            Finally.

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios
 
Economics

   This Week’s Data

      US

            February pending home sales fell 1.0% versus expectations of a 0.7% increase.

            The March Kansas City Fed manufacturing index came in at 17 versus the February reading of -4.

            The January PCE (inflation) was -0.1% versus consensus of 0; the core PCE (ex food and energy) was +0.1 versus +0.2.

            January personal income was up 0.2% versus estimates of up 0.3%; personal spending was up 0.1% versus up 0.3%.

     International

            March Japanese CPI rose 0.9% versus projections of +0.5%.

            February Japanese unemployment rate was 2.3% versus expectations of 2.5%; industrial production was +1.4% versus +1.0%; retail sales were  up 0.2% versus +0.3%; construction orders were -3.4% versus -4.0%; housing starts were +4.2% versus +0.5%.

            February German retail sales increased 0.9%, in line.

            Q4 UK GDP rose 0.2%, in line; business investment fell 0.9% versus forecasts of -1.4%.

    Other

            ***overnight, the latest on Brexit.


What I am reading today

            You have nothing to fear but fear itself.

                Reducing the behavior gap.

Visit Investing for Survival’s website (http://investingforsurvival.com/home) to learn more about our Investment Strategy, Prices Disciplines and Subscriber Service.




Thursday, March 28, 2019

The Morning Call--Still watching S&P 2800


The Morning Call

3/28/19

The Market
         
    Technical

The Averages (DJIA 25625, S&P 2805) had a roller coaster day, with the S&P ending below the lower boundary of its very short term uptrend (if it finishes there through the close today, the trend will be negated) but still above the critical 2800 level (but below the 2811/2815 level).  Clearly, this level holds a lot of gravity; given that it the S&P had tried and failed on four prior occasions, that is not surprising.   As you know, I thought that we had lift off last Thursday, but the immediate reversal suggests that there continues to be a bull/bear battle at the 2800/2811/2815 level.  So again, follow through (in either direction) remains is the only thing to hang a directional hat on. 

As an aside, while my attention has been focused on the S&P, I should point out the that the Dow made a lower high last Tuesday and has been in decline ever since.

Volume declined and breadth was mixed.

The VIX rose 3 ¼ %, leaving it between a double bottom and its 200 DMA---offering little informational value.

The long bond spiked again on heavy volume, ending above both MA’s, a very short term uptrend and has now broken through all visible resistance level between its current price (126) and its all-time high (134).  That said, last Friday’s gap open still needs to be closed.

            And.                                                                                                    

And.

The dollar rose three cents, leaving it above the upper boundary of the November to present trading range, above both MA’s and in a short term uptrend. 

GLD was down ½ %, but it still in a solid uptrend.

Bottom line: I said yesterday that ‘S&P appears to have reset 2800 (2811/2815) as support’---turns out that ‘appears’ was the operative word.  It may be about to reset; but as I also said yesterday ‘I want to see some follow through’.  I see nothing to do but set on my hands until there is directional evidence.
                              

TLT, GLD and UUP continue to point to lower interest rates/a weaker economy.

            Wednesday in the charts.

    Fundamental

       Headlines

            Yesterday’s economic data was slightly positive: weekly mortgage and purchase applications were up, the Q4 trade deficit deteriorated though the January figure improved.

            Overseas, the January/February Chinese YoY industrial profits declined dramatically.

            Fed policy remains front and center along with what is happening with the yield curve (see TLT above).  Thrown into the mix is now the growing controversy surrounding Trump’s new Fed nominee, Stephen Moore.
               
            More on the Fed decision.  This from supporter, sort of.
           
            This one, not so much.  A must read from Jeffrey Snider.

            And Moore.

And Moore.

            Bottom line: it seems like the major questions that I have been raising on monetary policy, the economy and the bond market are getting closer to being answered; how they get answered will likely determine equity price direction over the next year.  I have been anticipating a showdown on these issues far sooner than has occurred.  I await the resolution.


    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios
 
Paychex (NASDAQ:PAYX): Q3 Non-GAAP EPS of $0.89 beats by $0.01; GAAP EPS of $0.90.
Revenue of $1.07B (+14.3% Y/Y) in-line.

Accenture (NYSE:ACN): Q2 GAAP EPS of $1.73 beats by $0.16.
Revenue of $10.45B (+5.4% Y/Y) beats by $150M.

Accenture (NYSE:ACN) declares $1.46 semi-annual dividend, in line with previous.


Economics

   This Week’s Data

      US

            Weekly jobless claims fell 13,000 versus estimates of a 7,000 increase.

            Q4 2018 GDP growth was +2.2% versus forecasts of +2.4%; the price deflator was +1.9% versus +1.8%; corporate profits were flat versus a 3.5% advance in Q3.

            Q4 trade deficit was $134.4 billion versus expectations of $130.0 billion.
           
     International
               
                The Q3 EU business confidence index came in at .53 versus projections of .66; the industrial sentiment index was -1.7 versus -.9; the consumer confidence index was -7.2, in line; economic sentiment indicator was 105.5 versus 105.9.

    Other

            Median household income declined in February.

                ***overnight, developments on Brexit.

Turkey’s problems continue,


What I am reading today

            Nothing is safe.

            Quote of the day.

Visit Investing for Survival’s website (http://investingforsurvival.com/home) to learn more about our Investment Strategy, Prices Disciplines and Subscriber Service.