Thursday, December 19, 2019

The Morning Call--The beginning of the end?


The Morning Call

12/19/19

Our #3 granddaughter arrives today to start the Christmas season.  I am taking off until after New Year’s.  Have great Holiday Season.

The Market
         
    Technical

The Averages (28229, 3191) inched downward yesterday, but still closed above both MA’s and in uptrends across all timeframes.  So, momentum remains to the upside, at least short term; and that is being aided by seasonal factors.

            And.

However, nothing changed with respect to those multiple gap up opens down below or my concern that this is not healthy and could be an indication that the Market is entering or has already entered a blow off top. 

Volume was flat; breadth weaker than I had expected but remains near overbought territory.  The VIX was up 2 3/8%, but ended near the lows established last April, July and November. 

The long bond declined 7/8%, finishing (1) below the lower boundary of its very short term uptrend  which is also the lower boundary of the current pennant formation.  If it remains there through the close today, it will negated the very short term uptrend.  If it remains there through the close on Friday, it will void the pennant formation, which would be a decidedly negative technical sign for TLT, and (2) right on the lower boundary of its short term trading range. (must read)

The dollar rose ¼ %, but still ended near the lower boundary of its short term trading range.

Gold was up one cent, closing within a developing pennant formation.

The trading pattern of the VIX and the S&P are clearly pointing at a stronger economy.  And now TLT appears ready to join the crowd.  UUP and GLD continue to suggest uncertainty among their investors.

            Wednesday in the charts.

    Fundamental

       Headlines

            Only one minor US datapoint was released yesterday.  Weekly mortgage and purchase applications declined.

            The latest business cycle risk report.

            The latest Atlanta Fed Q4 GDPNow forecast.

Overseas, October EU YoY construction output and November German PPI were disappointing, the November Japanese trade deficit was much better than anticipated and November EU  and UK CPI’s were in line.

              Bottom line: the impeachment hearings sucked all the air out of the Market yesterday.  Indeed, given the extent of its overbought condition, I was surprised that it wasn’t off more.  But I guess that the irresistible force of $500 billion being pumped into the financial system can overcome all.

            ***overnight, the Bank of Japan left rates unchanged and will continue QE; the Bank of China made a huge liquidity infusion into its financial system; the Bank of Sweden raised its key bank rate.; the Bank of England left rates unchanged but hinted that it may start tightening.  Is this the beginning of the end or just noise?


              Trump has never been serious about fiscal responsibility.

            ***overnight, US and China discussing the signing of the Phase One traded deal.

            The latest from Stanley Druckenmiller.

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios
 
Paychex (NASDAQ:PAYX): Q2 Non-GAAP EPS of $0.70 beats by $0.02; GAAP EPS of $0.72 beats by $0.03.
Revenue of $990.7M (+15.3% Y/Y) beats by $2.44M.

Accenture (NYSE:ACN): Q1 Non-GAAP EPS of $2.09 beats by $0.10.
Revenue of $11.36B (+7.1% Y/Y) beats by $210M.

Accenture (NYSE:ACN) declares $0.80/share quarterly dividend, in line with previous.
FactSet Research Systems (NYSE:FDS): Q1 Non-GAAP EPS of $2.58 beats by $0.16; GAAP EPS of $2.43 beats by $0.24.
Economics

   This Week’s Data

      US

            Weekly jobless claims fell 18,000 versus expectations of down 27,000.

            The Q3 trade deficit was $124.1 billion versus consensus of $122.1 billion.

            The December Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index came in at 0.3 versus estimates of 8.0.

     International

            November UK retail sales fell 0.6% versus forecasts of +0.3%.

    Other

What I am reading today

           

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Wednesday, December 18, 2019

The Morning Call--The hole in Phase One


The Morning Call

12/18/19

The Market
         
    Technical

The Averages (28267, 3192) drifted higher yesterday, finishing above both MA’s and in uptrends across all timeframes.  So, momentum is clearly to the upside, at least short term; and that is being aided by seasonal factors.

However, nothing changed with respect to those multiple gap up opens down below or my concern that this is not healthy and could be an indication that the Market is entering or has already entered a blow off top. 

Volume was flat; breadth strong and is entering overbought territory.  The VIX was up 1 ¼% (unusual for an up day in the Market), but remained near the lows established last April, July and November---now safely back in territory indicative of complacency. 

The long bond declined 1/8%, ending in the developing pennant formation (with in a trend of lower highs and a trend of higher lows) which is a sign of investor confusion or uncertainty.

The dollar rose 1/8%, lifting off the lower boundary of its short term trading range.

Gold was down three cents.  Like TLT, it is in a developing pennant formation.

The trading pattern of the VIX and the S&P are clearly pointing at a stronger economy, while TLT, UUP and GLD are suggesting uncertainty among its investors.

            Tuesday in the charts.

    Fundamental

       Headlines

Yesterday’s stats were very upbeat. The October Jobs Openings report, November industrial production (primary indicator), and November housing starts (primary indicator) were above expectations while month to date retail chain store sales were disappointing.

            Overseas, October UK unemployment and the October EU trade surplus were better than anticipated.
            The only other headline was our ruling class deciding that the FY2020 deficit wasn’t quite irresponsible enough and voted to increase it even more.  Trump is scheduled to sign it on Friday.

            I can’t let a day go by without a dose of criticism for the Fed.
           
            Plus, this stunning admission from the head of the Boston Fed.

            Bottom line: yesterday’s data notwithstanding, there is no reason to believe that the economy is lifting off.  As you know, the pattern of economic growth for the last decade has been sluggish characterized by fits and starts.  Until there is a sustained period of growth, I am not changing my forecast.  I find comfort in that outlook because (1) the political class continues to load debt on the US economy which has the effect of restraining growth and (2) the distortion in capital investment resulting from the gross mispricing and misallocation of assets stemming from a far too easy monetary policy.  My complaints aside, I still believe that the economy will avoid recession.

            However, at some point, the fiscal and monetary policies adverse impact on corporate profit growth will in time render valuations so absurd that some adjustment in investor expectations seem inevitable.  But probably not until the Fed stumbles.
           
            The hole in the Phase One trade agreement (must read)

            The latest investment manager survey (must read).

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios
 
General Mills (NYSE:GIS): Q2 GAAP EPS of $0.95 beats by $0.07.
Revenue of $4.42B (+0.2% Y/Y) misses by $10M.
Economics

   This Week’s Data

      US

            The October Jobs Openings report showed a total of 7.26 million available jobs versus estimates of 7.02 million.

            November industrial production  rose 1.1% versus forecasts of up 0.8%; capacity utilization was 77.3% versus 77.4%.

                Weekly mortgage applications fell 5.0% while purchase applications were down 2.1%.

     International

            October EU YoY construction output was up 0.3% versus expectations of +2.4%; MoM CPI fell 0.3%, in line.

            The November Japanese YoY trade deficit equaled Y82.1 billion versus -Y369 billion.

            November German PPI was 0.0% versus consensus of +0.1%: UK CPI was 0.2%, in line.

    Other

            College enrollment skids for 8th year in a row as student loan debt soars.

            Where is the inflation?

What I am reading today

            Some of the most exciting fossil discoveries ever.

            Intangible returns.

            Quote of the day.

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Tuesday, December 17, 2019

The Morning Call--Upside momentum returns


The Morning Call

12/17/19

The Market
         
    Technical

The Averages (28235, 3191) rose yesterday in the afterglow of Friday’s announced Phase One US/China agreement.  The Dow re-established a very short term uptrend, joining the S&P.  That leaves both index above both MA’s and in uptrends across all timeframes.  So, momentum is clearly to the upside, at least short term; and that is being aided by seasonal factors.

However, nothing changed with respect to those multiple gap up opens down below or my concern that this is not healthy and could be an indication that the Market is entering or has already entered a blow off top. 

Volume was up; breadth strong but is rapidly approaching overbought territory.  The VIX fell another 4 % and is nearing the lows established last April, July and November---now safely back in territory indicative of complacency. 

BofA market expectations

            Morgan Stanley market expectations.

The long bond declined 7/8%, the third highly volatile reversal day in a row suggesting confusion within the bond ranks.  Further, while its short term momentum remains down  (1) as it is still below its 100 DMA,  (2) it continues trade in a trend of lower highs and (3) is now approaching the lower boundary of its very short term uptrend, it is developing a series of higher lows potentially creating a pennant formation which would also be a sign of confusion or uncertainty.

The dollar fell a nickel, ending below its 100 DMA now resistance and moving closer to the lower boundary of its short term trading range.

Gold was down one cent, remaining near the upper boundary of its very short term uptrend as well as its 100 DMA.  While it remains in that trend of lower highs, it is also developing a trend of higher lows---very similar to the trading pattern of TLT.

The trading pattern of the VIX and the S&P are clearly pointing at a stronger economy, while TLT, UUP and GLD are suggesting uncertainty among its investors.

            Monday in the charts.

    Fundamental

       Headlines

            The December flash PMI’s were released across the globe yesterday.  Here at home, they were upbeat as was the December housing market index.

            Overseas, they were mixed.  Though YoY Chinese fixed asset investment, industrial production and retail sales were all above estimates.               
           
As you might expect, the US/China trade deal announced on Friday was one of the major macroeconomic headlines of the day.  As you also might expect,  everyone had an opinion.  I started to list a number of both pro and con positions.  I had linked to eight articles before I read the below.  But once I did, I scrapped them all.  This by far the best and most thorough discussion of Phase One that I have seen thus far.

                The other story that bears watching is the Fed/repo liquidity problem.  I noted yesterday that the first test was occurring.  So far, the result has been passable.  Here is some more insight.

                Bottom line: it would appear that volatile US/China trade headlines will probably return soon enough, which will likely have some spillover effect on stock prices.  That said, with the Fed pumping oodles and oodles of money into the financial system, the impact on the Market should be a plus, at least initially. 

            I would be sure to use the current Market strength to build cash reserves.  If you have already done that, enjoy.

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios
 
           

Economics

   This Week’s Data

      US

            The December flash manufacturing PMI came in at 52.5, in line, the services PMI was 52.2 versus 51.9, the composite PMI was 52.2 versus 51.9.

            The December housing market index was reported at 76 versus expectations of 70.
            Month to date retail chain store sales declined at a faster rate than in the prior week.

            November housing starts rose 3.1% versus consensus of up 1.6%; building permits were up 1.4% versus -4.1%
           
     International

            October UK unemployment stood at 3.8% versus estimates of 3.9%.

            The October EU trade surplus was E28 billion versus projections of E17 billion.
                       
    Other
                
             The problem with deficits.

              ***overnight, Johnson says no more Brexit delays.

              Bulk shipping rates continue to plunge.

What I am reading today

            Time magazine’s top 100 photos of 2019
            https://time.com/2019-photos/
Visit Investing for Survival’s website (http://investingforsurvival.com/home) to learn more about our Investment Strategy, Prices Disciplines and Subscriber Service.




Monday, December 16, 2019

Monday Morning Chartology


The Morning Call

12/16/19

The Market
           
    Technical

            The S&P resumed its upward momentum last week, resetting a very short term uptrend while remaining above both MA’s and in uptrends across all timeframes.  Nonetheless, it has three unfilled gap up opens beneath it.
           


            Despite TLT  having closed all the gap opens, volatility remains.  Friday, it bounced off the lower boundary of its very short term uptrend, but still ended below its 100 DMA and in a trend of lower highs.  But it does appear to be developing a pennant formation (series of higher lows)---which would confirm uncertainty/confusion within the bond crowd.



            Having held up well during all the volatility during late November, UUP technical position has deteriorated during the last two weeks.  Its 100 DMA has revert to resistance.  It has also reset its short term uptrend to a trading range and now challenging the lower boundary of that trading range.  All this suggests a weaker economy.



            GLD continues to bump up against the upper boundary of its very short term uptrend with added help of the added restraint offered by the 100 DMA.  Like TLT, it seems to be developing a pennant formation and like TLT reflects uncertainty/confusion among GLD investors.



            The VIX has had three big upbeat days this month and spent the rest of its time pushing back toward or in a range indicative of complacency.  Given that the news flow has been largely positive of late along with the added benefit of seasonal factors, it is apt to remain in this territory near term.



    Fundamental

       Headlines

            Today is the first test of the Fed’s massive liquidity injection.

            ***just in

            How much good has QEInfinity done?         


    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

AT&T (NYSE:T) declares $0.52/share quarterly dividend, 2% increase from prior dividend of $0.51.
 
Economics

   This Week’s Data

      US

The December NY Fed manufacturing index came in at 3.5 versus consensus of 4.0.

     International

            The December Japanese flash manufacturing PMI was 48.8 versus estimates of 48.4, the services PMI was 50.6 versus 49.8, the composite PMI was 49.8 versus 49.9; the December German flash manufacturing PMI was 43.4 versus 44.5, the services PMI was 52.0, in line, the composite PMI was 49.9 versus 49.9; the December EU flash manufacturing PIM was 45.9 versus 47.3, the services PMI was 52.4 versus 52.0, the composite PMI was 50.6 versus 50.7; the December UK flash manufacturing PMI was 47.4 versus 49.3, the services PMI was 49.0 versus 49.6, the composite PMI was 48.5 versus 49.6.

            The November Chinese YoY fixed investment grew 5.2%, in line, industrial production was up 6.2% versus 5.0%, retail sales increased 8% versus 7.6%.

    Other

What I am reading today

           

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Saturday, December 14, 2019

The Closing Bell



12/14/19


Statistical Summary

   Current Economic Forecast
                       
2018 estimates (revised)

Real Growth in Gross Domestic Product                          1.5-2.5%
                        Inflation                                                                          +1.5-2%
                        Corporate Profits                                                                10-15%

            2019

Real Growth in Gross Domestic Product                          1.5-2.5%
                        Inflation                                                                          +1.5-2.5%
                        Corporate Profits                                                                5-6%


   Current Market Forecast
           
            Dow Jones Industrial Average

                                    Current Trend (revised):  
                                    Short Term Uptrend                                 24332-34632
Intermediate Term Uptrend                     16032-32301
Long Term Uptrend                                  6849-30311(?)
                                               
2018     Year End Fair Value                                   13800-14000

                        2019     Year End Fair Value                                   14500-14700

            Standard & Poor’s 500

                                    Current Trend (revised):
                                    Short Term Uptrend                                     2981-3451
                                    Intermediate Term Uptrend                         2676-4166                                                          Long Term Uptrend                                     937-3217 (?)
                                                           
2018 Year End Fair Value                                       1700-1720         
                       
2019 Year End Fair Value                                     1790-1810

Percentage Cash in Our Portfolios

Dividend Growth Portfolio                           56%
            High Yield Portfolio                                     55%
            Aggressive Growth Portfolio                        56%

Economics/Politics
           
The Trump economy is a neutral for equity valuations.   The dataflow this week was negative.   As was the single primary indicator: November retail sales (-). The call is negative.  Score: in the last 218 weeks, seventy were positive, one hundred negative and forty-eight neutral. 

Overseas data returned to its heretofore negative trend, continuing to support the notion that the global economy is a drag on our own.

Developments this week that impact the economy:

(1)   trade:

[a] China: while there appears to be some sort of agreement, we don’t know exactly what the terms are.  Or if we ever will.  It does seem likely that Trump won’t impose those additional tariffs tomorrow and that is a minor plus.  However, given what we know at this point, I don’t think any conclusion can be made beyond that.

The latest.

For skeptics among you.

My bottom line hasn’t changed.  I don’t believe that there [is] will be a deal that incorporates the primary issues of Chinese industrial policy and IP theft before November 2020, if at all.  Any other deal will be not be a long term positive for the US.  That said, any agreement that removes tariffs and increases Chinese purchase of US ag products will be a minor short term economic plus.

[b]  in addition, the Canada, Mexico, US trade treaty appears to be making progress.  That is a positive.  Remember Canada and Mexico are our second and third largest trading partners.

[c] on the other hand, it looks like the Donald now has his sights set on Europe.


(2)   fiscal policy: the Treasury reported the November budget deficit this week, which not surprisingly continued to grow.  Congress then added insult to injury, reaching an agreement on a $1.37 trillion FY2020 budget deal. This at a time of full employment and a record national debt.  I repeat Rogoff and Reinhart’s thesis [with which I agree] that when the national debt is above 90% of GDP [which it is], it acts as a restraint on growth.

(3)   monetary policy: the FOMC met this week.  Nothing really changed from the QEInfinity narrative except that it pledged to make that policy even greater if the dollar funding problem returned.

True to its word, the following day the Fed announced that it would pump $500 billion into the financial system to counter any potential disruption in the repo market.  While I have to give it credit for anticipating this problem, what is troublesome is that these high powered intellects still don’t have a clue of why it is happening.  True, they point to year end liquidity needs; but this factor has never demanded this kind of response in the past. 

Banana republic money debasement.

My concern is that there is a major bank/financial institution with huge counterparty exposure that is teetering on bankruptcy.  To be sure, US banks are much better prepared to deal with a situation like this than they were in 2008, but European and Chinese banks are not.  And turmoil in the EU or Chinese financial system will still have spillover effects on their and the global economies.

(4)   global hotspots. Brexit. Johnson’s landslide victory pretty much assures a Brexit.  However, I don’t believe anyone has a handle on exactly what the economic consequences are for the UK or the EU.  To be sure, they could be positive.  But the point is, no one knows.

(5)    impeachment:  I will continue to avoid political commentary.  Though I believe that the more intense the situation becomes, the more it will negatively affect businesses and consumers willingness to invest/spend.

Bottom line:  on a secular basis, the US economy is growing at an historically below average rate and I see little reason for any improvement.  The principal causes of the restraint being totally irresponsible fiscal (running monstrous deficits at full employment adding to too much debt) and monetary (pushing liquidity into the financial system that has done little to help the economy but has led to the gross mispricing and misallocation of assets) policies.

Cyclically, the US economy continues to limp along.  Indeed, any progress is a miracle given all the fiscal and monetary headwinds.  My forecast remains that the US will avoid recession.
           
The Market-Disciplined Investing
           
  Technical

The Averages (28135, 3168) were largely unchanged in Friday’s trading.  So, nothing changed with respect to those multiple gap up opens down below or my concern that this is not healthy and could be an indication that the Market is entering or has already entered a blow off top.  On the other hand, the S&P reset a new very short term uptrend (the Dow has not).  Volume was down; breadth mixed.  The VIX fell another 9 ½ % and now is safely back in territory indicative of complacency. 

The long bond rose 1 1/8%, rebounding from Thursday’s beating.  While its short term momentum remains down  (1) as it is still below its 100 DMA,  (2) it continues trade in a trend of lower highs and (3) is now approaching the lower boundary of its very short term uptrend.  However, it is developing a series of higher lows potentially creating a pennant formation which would be more a sign of confusion or uncertainty than negative sentiment.

The dollar was unchanged, ending below its 100 DMA for a third day, reverting to resistance.  It  remains near the lower boundary of its short term trading range.

Gold was up ½%, continuing to bump up against the upper boundary of its very short term uptrend as well as its 100 DMA.  While it remains in that trend of lower highs, it is also developing a trend of higher lows---very similar to the trading pattern of TLT.

The VIX and the S&P are clearly pointing at higher prices, while TLT, UUP and GLD are suggesting uncertainty among its investors.

Friday in the charts.

Fundamental-A Dividend Growth Investment Strategy

The DJIA and the S&P are well above ‘Fair Value’ (as calculated by our Valuation Model).  At the moment, the important factors bearing on Fair Value (corporate profitability and the rate at which it is discounted) are:

(1)   the extent to which the economy is growing.  The economy continues to struggle forward against multiple headwinds, though I still believe that it is not falling into a recession.  As long as this remains the case, US economy will be a neutral  for the Market.

(2)   the [lack of] success of current trade negotiations.  At this moment, all the press notwithstanding, we still don’t know what the terms of the Phase One US/China agreement are. As I have repeated ad nauseum, I don’t believe an agreement will be [has been] reached that adequately addresses the issues of Chinese industrial policy and IP theft---which are why there is trade war in the first place. And that will continue to overhang the Market.

Not helping, with the ink hardly dry on the mystery US/China trade, Trump opened up another dispute.  This time with the EU.  While not as big a factor as China in the economics of US trade, it still keeps the level of Market uncertainty elevated.

Of course, there was developments from which investors can take heart. NAFTA 2.0 is working its way to completion and that should be is a plus for corporate profits and equities.

(3)   the resumption of QE by the global central banks.  Both the Fed and the ECB renewed their dedication to QEInfinity this week.  And the Fed upped the ante by announcing a massive infusion into the US financial system in anticipation of another the repo market freeze up at year end.  Since liquidity is what has fueled the stock market rise the last decade, this injection should initially be a plus for equity prices.  However, if the problems in the repo market reflect some underlying weakness not yet obvious to the gurus in the Fed and this flood of money doesn’t solve the problem, this could be the trigger for the loss of faith in the Fed.

My bottom line remains the same.  Because QE, QEInfinity and NotQE have been and remain Market friendly, stocks should continue to do well until the Fed either reverses its policy or investors figure out just how punitive that policy has been for the economy.

(4)   impeachment. as I noted above, the more vicious this battle,  the more likely it is to have a negative effect on stock prices.

(5)   current valuations. I believe that Averages are grossly overvalued [as determined by my Valuation Model]---which will continue to count for little as long as the global central banks are pumping liquidity into the financial system.

The profit gap.

As prices continue to rise, I will be primarily focused on those stocks that trade into their Sell Half Range and act accordingly. Despite the Averages being near all-time highs, there are certain segments of the economy/Market that have been punished severely (e.g. health care) with the stocks of the companies serving those industries down 30-70%.  I am compiling a list of potential Buy candidates that can be bought on any correction in the Market; even a minor one.  As you know, I recently added AbbVie to the Dividend Growth and High Yield Buy Lists and Kroger to the Dividend Growth Buy List.

Mom and pop investors are not the ones chasing performance.

Bottom line: fiscal policy is negatively impacting the E in P/E.  On the other hand, a new regulatory environment is a plus.  Any improvement in our trade regime with China should have a positive impact on secular growth and, hence, equity valuations---if it occurs.  More important, a global central bank ‘put’ has returned and, if history is any guide, it should be a plus for stock prices. 

            As a reminder, my Portfolio’s cash position didn’t reach its current level as a result of the Valuation Models estimate of Fair Value for the Averages.  Rather I apply it to each stock in my Portfolio and when a stock reaches its Sell Half Range (overvalued), I reduce the size of that holding.  That forces me to recognize a portion of the profit of a successful investment and, just as important, build a reserve to buy stocks cheaply when the inevitable decline occurs.