The Morning Call
9/1/26
The
Market
Technical
Monday in the
charts.
Monday in the
technical stats.
https://www.barchart.com/stocks/momentum
https://www.barchart.com/stocks/market-performance
https://www.barchart.com/stocks/sectors/rankings
https://www.barchart.com/stocks/signals/new-recommendations
September is he
worst month of the year for stocks.
https://jeffhirsch.tumblr.com/post/826225834183491584/september-worst-month-of-the-year-for-stocks
The latest from JP
Morgan’s desk.
The latest from
Citadel’s desk.
Tuesday morning setup:
Stock futures are set to start the new month on the backfoot -
having weathered a variety of challenges to post a gain for August
- with tech lagging as a global selloff pushes yields to the highest level
since 2008. As of 8:00am ET, S&P futures are down 0.6%, while Nasdaq
futures slid 1.2% following a reports of a strike by Micron’s labor unions in
Taiwan, sending the stock 2% lower in pre-market. Semis / Memory are down 1.4%
and 2.2%, respectively, with neither Mag7 nor Software seeing a pre-mkt bid.
Defensives and Energy are poised to outperform today as small-caps lead
large-caps, despite the meltup in rates and oil. Treasury Yields are 2-4 bps
higher as part of a general steepening of the curve which has sent US
10Y yield to 4.79% and 10Y JGBs above 3.00% for the first time since
1996. The Dollar is stronger, too. Reports of two supertankers
being hit by projectiles are driving oil prices sharply higher and pushing WTI
above $87, the highest since July 27. Metals are weaker with Precious
metals lagging Base; gold is off ~6% from its Aug high and is 9% above its $4k
major support. Ags remain bid after returning ~13% in Aug: the BCOMAG Index is
making multi-year highs, last seen in 2022/23. Today’s macro data
focus is on ISM-Mfg and JOLTS, with ISM the more important to make sure the
growth story remains intact and supportive of the broadening trade. Keep an eye
on the ISM Prices Paid as inflation is more critical to markets than growth,
going into the Sep 16 Fed Mtg.
Fundamental
Headlines
The
Economy
US
The August Dallas
Fed manufacturing index was reported at 11.6 versus estimates of +0.7.
International
Q2 Japanese YoY
capital spending was up 1.6% versus projections of +0.2%; the August consumer confidence
index was 35.5 versus 35.0.
July German retail sales fell 3.4% versus
forecasts of +0.4%.
The July EU
unemployment rate was 6.4% versus expectations of 6.3%; the August flash CPI
was +0.4%. in line.
The August
Japanese manufacturing PMI came in at 54.9 versus consensus of 55.1; the August
German manufacturing PMI was 54.3 versus 54.1; the August EU manufacturing PMI
was 52.7 versus 52.8; the August UK manufacturing PMI was 51.7 versus 51.5.
Other
Strongest El Nino in a generation is wreaking
havoc on global economy.
Treasuries
are signaling a clash in the economic outlook.
The dollar may not be dying, but its value is
shrinking.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/rickards-dollars-not-dying
Iran
Overnight news.
Monetary
Policy
Warsh’s Jackson Hole speech emphasized price
stability.
Fiscal
Policy
The pros and cons of democratic socialism.
Bessent faces credibility test.
Summary: US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent faces a test with global
peers at the meeting of Group of 20 finance ministers in Asheville, North
Carolina, where he has vowed to return the conversation to boosting growth. Bessent's
interventionist summer has led to pushback and questions about his credibility
in financial markets, with some critics arguing that his moves have limited
impact in a world made unstable by American actions. The challenge for Bessent
is that the biggest threats to global growth have come from high energy prices
and US tariffs, which could put G20 members like China and India in the firing
line, and have raised questions about his credibility and the US's economic
agenda.
Inflation
Is inflation really at 3%?
AI
Contemplating the limits of AI.
https://freddiedeboer.substack.com/p/i-think-llms-will-prove-to-be-consequential
Bank of England chief warns of AI threat.
Tariffs
Tariffs aren’t reducing the trade deficit.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2026/08/30/trade-deficit-cannot-be-controlled-by-tariffs/
Investing
The shifting makeup
of the S&P.
Bulls may have a
hard time continuing to sell the story of sustainable profit growth.
News on Stocks in Our Portfolios
What
I am reading today
Successful
people have one habit in common.
College sports need help.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2026/08/28/ncaa-college-football-seeks-congressional-help/
Visit Investing
for Survival’s website (http://investingforsurvival.com/home)
to learn more about our Investment Strategy, Prices Disciplines and Subscriber
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