The Morning Call--Tech valuations

 

The Morning Call

 

10/9/25

 

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The Market

         

    Technical

 

            Wednesday in the charts.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/market-recaps/everythings-except-yen-goldman-sees-generation-momo-junkies

 

                More charts.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/wrap-nothing-impossible-ai-mania-gold-roars-palladium-breaks-out

 

            Wednesday in the technical stats.

            https://www.barchart.com/stocks/momentum

            https://www.barchart.com/stocks/sectors/rankings

            https://www.barchart.com/stocks/signals/new-recommendations

 

            Quants are blowing up.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/wrap-nothing-impossible-ai-mania-gold-roars-palladium-breaks-out

 

            What to know about October’s crash potential.

            https://www.marketwatch.com/story/october-is-typically-volatile-for-stocks-but-will-you-be-needing-a-seat-belt-or-a-crash-helmet-486f50af?st=KSLkfT

 

            Which economic indicators matter to investors?

            https://www.ft.com/content/87f4ef51-cf18-4cd4-bac6-5719a5eaf7e2

 

            Capital flight.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/debasement-trade-blue-horseshoe-loves-gold-bitcoin

 

            Dollar awakens?

            https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/king-dollar-awakens-big-squeeze-above-99

 

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

 

                        International

 

The August German trade balance was +E17.2 billion   versus consensus of +E16.0 billion.

 

September Japanese YoY machine tool orders grew 9.9% versus projections of +8.5%.

 

                        Other

 

OECD’s warning to US. (I am not sure where the OECD gets the ‘more regulation’ claim. Trump has been slashing regulations and firing the regulators.)

https://thedailyeconomy.org/article/the-oecds-warning-to-america-economic-growth-is-slipping/

 

                          Nongovernment employment numbers are neutral to negative.

                          https://www.wsj.com/economy/jobs/the-unofficial-jobs-numbers-are-in-and-its-rough-out-there-3518e239?mod=economy_lead_pos1

 

                          Consumer spending has continued to increase.

                          https://bonddad.blogspot.com/2025/10/consumer-spending-has-continued-to.html

 

Consumer credit growth stalls. (This isn’t necessarily bad news. (1) consumers could just be paying down debt incurred in the Covid era, (2) the less consumers borrow, the more room for government to borrow without raising interest costs and (3) just because consumers aren’t buying on credit, doesn’t mean that they are not buying---see above.)

https://mishtalk.com/economics/consumer-credit-growth-stalls-inflation-adjusted-credit-declines/

 

            Overnight News

 

              Israel and Hamas agree to first step in peace deal.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/progress-reported-gaza-peace-talks-trump-denies-telling-israeli-pm-not-be-fcking

 

            Monetary Policy

 

The FOMC released the minutes of its last meeting---they were another hand job.

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/fomc-30

 

              Gold rally points to loss of faith in central banks.

              https://www.wsj.com/economy/central-banking/gold-price-central-bank-28eac30f?mod=economy_lead_pos2

 

            Fiscal Policy

 

              Big, Beautiful Bill was big, beautiful gift to the blue states.

              https://issuesinsights.com/2025/10/07/turns-out-the-obbba-was-a-big-beautiful-gift-to-blue-states/

 

              Washington’s dysfunction is a tax on borrowers.

              https://thehill.com/opinion/finance/5541569-federal-reserve-interest-rates-impact/

 

              Trump’s worst idea.

              https://www.thefp.com/p/donald-trumps-worst-idea-intel-mining-socialism?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email

 

                Inflation

 

              The private sector’s CPI reading.

              https://politicalcalculations.blogspot.com/2025/10/alternate-consumer-price-inflation-data.html

 

                Tariffs

 

              A study of the impact of tariffs on US prices.

              https://www.library.hbs.edu/working-knowledge/why-rising-prices-might-feel-worse-now-tariff-trendlines

 

                  US soybean farmers panic over loss of China market.

              https://www.wsj.com/economy/trade/us-soybean-farmers-china-market-8749c5a2?mod=business_lead_pos4

 

     Investing

 

            Invest like you make bad predictions.

            https://behaviouralinvestment.com/2025/10/08/invest-like-you-are-bad-at-making-predictions/

 

            The mechanics of TIPS bonds.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/recession-and-bonds-navigating-next-slowdown

 

            Too much of a good thing?

            Data Centers: Too Much of a Good Thing?

           

            AI is now a debt bubble too.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/ai-now-debt-bubble-quietly-surpassing-all-banks-become-largest-sector-market

 

            Tech valuations.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/have-no-fear-theres-no-bubble-says-sell-side

 

            What to expect from Q3 earnings.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/bar-low-what-expect-q3-earnings-and-why-its-all-about-mag-7-again

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

 

 

What I am reading today

 

           

 

 

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