The Morning Call--Fed policy may be more dovish than Powell thinks

 

The Morning Call

 

10/23/25

 

The Market

         

    Technical

 

            Wednesday in the charts.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/momo-meltdown-spreads-broad-market-bitcoin-bullion-extend-losses

 

                Wednesday in the technical stats.

            https://www.barchart.com/stocks/momentum

            https://www.barchart.com/stocks/sectors/rankings

            https://www.barchart.com/stocks/signals/new-recommendations

 

            The latest from Goldman’s desk.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/how-goldmans-trading-desk-hedging-market-meltdown

 

            Bitcoin schizophrenia.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/crypto/dip-below-100k-seems-inevitable-stanchart-sees-bitcoin-200k-year-end

 

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

 

                        International

 

The October UK industrial trends orders index was -38 versus estimates of -28; the Q4 business optimism index was -31 versus -29.

 

                        Other

 

            Monetary Policy

 

              Fed policy may be more dovish than Powell thinks.

                          https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2025-10-22/fed-interest-rates-might-be-more-dovish-than-powell-thinks?srnd=homepage-americas&sref=loFkkPMQ

 

              Determining Fed policy in the face of data uncertainty.

              https://www.capitalspectator.com/will-fridays-cpi-release-clarify-or-blur-the-inflation-outlook/

 

            Fiscal Policy

 

              Apparently, a (slim) majority of Americans favor the shutdown.

              https://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2025/10/shutdown-by-popular-demand.php

 

            Inflation

 

              The latest Campbell’s tomato soup can inflation indicator.

              https://politicalcalculations.blogspot.com/2025/10/campbells-tomato-soup-registers-small.html

 

            The Financial System

 

              Most credit securitization relies on magical thinking.

              https://www.ft.com/content/6da7186a-f438-4256-9f0e-dbb3b25d5e58

 

              Another cockroach.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/personal-finance/another-cockroach-subprime-auto-lender-primalend-enters-bankruptcy

 

                  Is it 1925 all over again?

              https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/bezzel-it-1925-all-over-again

 

                Geopolitics

 

              The latest developments on Ukraine.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/high-casualty-russian-attack-ukraine-nato-chief-washington

 

     Investing

 

            Bubble, bubble, toil and trouble.

            Bubble, Bubble, Toil & Trouble

 

            Sanity check.

            https://brklyninvestor.com/2025/10/20/sanity-check/

 

            Playbook for bitcoin and gold.

            https://www.advisorperspectives.com/commentaries/2025/10/22/bitcoin-gold-hard-money-renaissance-playbook

 

Is the run in gold over?

            https://talkmarkets.com/content/five-precious-metals-plays-to-lock-in-during-this-pullback?post=529812

 

                More on gold.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/gold-healthy-reset-or-just-overcrowded

 

                Circular investment deals in AI.

            https://mishtalk.com/economics/circular-investment-deals-in-ai-look-similar-to-the-dot-com-bubble/

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

McDonald's (NYSE:MCD) declares $1.86/share quarterly dividend, 5% increase from prior dividend of $1.77.

 

 

What I am reading today

 

           

                        The exercise that takes off 20 years.

            https://www.vogue.com/article/exercise-that-takes-off-20-years

 

            The benefits of creatine monohydrate.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/medical/pivotal-research-creatine-finds-foundational-applications-way-beyond-gym-including-brain

 

 

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