The Morning Call
4/30/26
The
Market
Technical
Wednesday in the
charts.
Summary:
Oil prices exploding higher and the most divided Fed in 34 years sparked
some serious moves across asset-classes today (but stocks shrugged it off,
hopeful as ever ahead of tonight's earnings extravaganza). Bonds
battered, gold and crypto hammered, dollar surged, S&P unch!?
Wednesday in the technical stats.
https://www.barchart.com/stocks/momentum
https://www.barchart.com/stocks/market-performance
https://www.barchart.com/stocks/sectors/rankings
https://www.barchart.com/stocks/signals/new-recommendations
This analyst sees
downside in oil, gold and silver.
Goldman’s desk has
moved from ‘buy the dip’ to ‘trade the mania’.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/goldman-retail-has-moved-buy-dip-trade-mania
Summary:
t is in this context that Goldman's Flow of Funds team published their latest
note, in which it highlights that "retail has moved from
leveraging the market to leveraging the narrative ... from "buy the
dip" to "trade the mania" Manias, however, don't last
and taken together, Goldman's Lee Coppersmith thinks the market is set
to let off steam in the near-term, excising the froth accrued on the rally to
ATHs. Looking out to the rest of May, the bank sees moderate tailwinds
from corporate buybacks and select systematic strategies (not named CTA) but a
continued complex backdrop: "the dynamics can change especially quickly
in this environment and will comment as the landscape shifts."
Thursday morning
setup: Futures erase an overnight slide, and have resumed their ascent trading
near all-time highs, despite a hawkish Fed statement but stronger Mag7
earnings. The hawkish Fed followed by a less hawkish press conference, plus the
news that Powell is staying on seemingly removing a cut, actually have bond
yields lower pre-mkt by 2-4bp as the Dollar weakens on what appears to be BOJ
intervention which has sent the USDJPY plunging most since 2022. As of 8:00am
ET, S&P futures are up 0.4%, erasing a 0.5% drop earlier in the session;
Nasdaq futures gain 0.6%: in premarket trading Alphabet is the big gainer
from the major tech companies that reported, with Amazon rising too but Meta
and Microsoft falling (META -9% AMZN +2.3%, GOOG +6%, and MSFT -1.8%). Semis
continue to trade higher as well as Discretionary, Industrials and Materials
while Financials, Healthcare and Staples lower as Cyclicals lead Defensives.
Energy names are mostly lower after striking rollercoaster in the price of oil.
In commodities, energy is weaker, metals are higher led by precious, and Ags
are mostly higher. Today’s US economic data calendar slate includes jobless
claims, personal income and spending, 1Q employment cost index and first
estimate of Q1 GDP (8:30am), April MNI Chicago PMI (9:45am, several minutes
earlier for subscribers) and March Leading Index (10am)
Fundamental
Headlines
The
Economy
US
Weekly
jobless claims were reported at 189,000 versus predictions 215,000.
Q1
GDP grew 2.0% versus consensus of +2.3%; PCE price index was +4.5% versus +3.8%;
real consumer spending was up 1.6% versus +2.6%.
March
personal income was up 0.6% versus expectations of up 0.3%; personal spending
was up 0.9%, in line.
March PCE price
index was up 0.7% in line; core PCE was up 0.3%, also in line.
International
The Q1 German
flash GDP grew 0.3% versus projections of +0.2%; March
retail sales fell 2.0% versus -0.1%; the April unemployment rate was
6.4% versus 6.3%.
The Q1 EU flash
GDP grew 0.1% versus forecasts of +0.2%; the Q1 flash CPI was 1.0%, in line,
March
Japanese preliminary industrial production declined 0.5% versus predictions of
+1.1%;
March retail sales were up 1.3% versus +0.8%;
March YoY construction orders were down 14.4%
versus +33.0%; March YoY housing starts were down 29.3% versus -28.5%; the
April consumer confidence index was 32.2 versus 33.1.
The April Chinese manufacturing
PMI came in at 50.3 versus consensus of 50.1; the April nonmanufacturing index
was 49.4 versus 49.9; the April composite PMI was 50.1 versus 50.7.
Other
The housing data is sort of positive.
https://bonddad.blogspot.com/2026/04/the-quandary-of-housing-almost-all.html
Iran
Overnight news.
US CENTCOM is to
brief US President Trump on new plans for potential military action in Iran on
Thursday, Axios reported citing sources; plan includes a short and powerful
strike potentially targeting infrastructure to break the nuclear issue
deadlock. Other options expected to be presented include a plan to take over
part of the Strait to allow for commercial shipping, which could involve ground
forces, and a special forces op to secure Iran's uranium stockpile.US CENTCOM
has asked to send the Army's hypersonic missile to the Middle East for possible
use against Iran, Bloomberg reported citing sources.US CENTCOM said the US navy
has redirected 42 vessels from the blockade in the Strait of Hormuz and that
the military is fully committed to enforcing the blockade. Iran lawmaker
Mottaki says a naval blockade would amount to a declaration of war, and that
fighters could decide as soon as tomorrow or next week to remove such obstacles
via military action. Iran’s Navy Commander said the Islamic Republic will soon
unveil a new weapon that would deeply terrify the enemy, IRNA reported. He said
Iran has closed the strategic Strait of Hormuz from the Arabian Sea. Condemned
the US’s illegal seizure of several Iranian vessels as part of the blockade,
which he said amounted not only to “piracy” but also “hostage-taking". Khamenei says Iran
will closely guard and protect its nuclear and missile capabilities,
a clear and direct rejection of President Trump's demand to hand over enriched
uranium as the basis for a deal. Iranians will cling to the country's nuclear
and missile capabilities "as their national capital and will guard them
like water, land and air borders,"
On Friday, the war reaches the 60 day limit set
by the War Powers Resolution.
Iranians feeling the pain.
The Iranian oi industry isn’t about to
explode.
Monetary
Policy
The FOMC wrapped
up its April meeting yesterday and left rates unchanged. The press release
sounded somewhat dovish despite three members voicing a hawkish tone. Powell’s
presser sounded more hawkish than the press release. Further, he has chosen to
remain on the FOMC after his retirement as Fed head citing concern over political
interference as a primary reason. My overall impression was that the Fed is
leaning hawkish and it is sending a message to Warsh to not expect cooperation
if he wants to lower rates.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/fomc-37
The Fed may be standing still, but the markets
aren’t.
https://www.capitalspectator.com/middle-east-turmoil-fuels-inflation-fears-testing-feds-patience/
ECB holds rates unchanged.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/ecb-holds-rates-2-expected-stagflation-looming
The financial crisis that didn’t happen.
https://awealthofcommonsense.com/2026/04/the-financial-crisis-that-didnt-happen/
Fiscal
Policy
Government debt---what it means and what it
doesn’t mean for the economy.
https://www.advisorperspectives.com/commentaries/2026/04/29/government-debt-not-doom-crowd-thinks
Tariffs
The tariff vindication that isn’t there.
The
Financial System
Ken Griffin
suggests that retail investors don’t understand the private credit market.
https://www.ft.com/content/130a68e2-d8cc-449b-a32a-a0b8e2471e89?syn-25a6b1a6=1
Summary:
Hedge fund billionaire Ken Griffin has questioned whether wealthy individuals
truly understand the risks of investing in private credit and warned that they
might struggle to access their money in the event of a downturn. “The real
issue here is the liquidity mismatch between the retail investor and the
duration of the investments,” Griffin said in an interview with the FT. “We
live in a world where retail investors have become accustomed to having
immediate liquidity for their investments . . . investing in private credit is
a different story.”
AI
A
jaundice view of AI. (long but a must read)
Investing
New highs, bad
vibes.
https://trendlabs.com/new-highs-bad-vibes/
News on Stocks in Our Portfolios
What
I am reading today
Quote
of the day.
https://cafehayek.com/2026/04/quotation-of-the-day-5361.html
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