The Morning Call--On borrowed time

 

The Morning Call

 

4/21/26

 

The Market

         

    Technical

 

            Monday in the charts.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/oil-jumps-tech-dumps-gold-slumps-blockade-booms-ceasefire-looms

 

Summary: Strong earnings and positive price momentum offered equity markets some respite against the disappointment of US-Iran diplomacy over the weekend (bilateral escalation in the Strait). Today's trading pattern mimicked that of recent Mondays - with Sunday night kneejerks unwound through the US session - but without the same strength (stocks off their lows but red, oil off its highs but still green). VIX was up bigly (less about call-chasing) Dollar and Bonds basically unch, bitcoin up, gold down. “I’m not going to be rushed into making a bad deal,” Trump said. In a phone interview, he noted the truce expires “Wednesday evening Washington time.” Nasdaq-100's 13-day win streak is over!!

 

            Monday in the technical stats.

            https://www.barchart.com/stocks/momentum

            https://www.barchart.com/stocks/market-performance

            https://www.barchart.com/stocks/market-performance

            https://www.barchart.com/stocks/signals/new-recommendations

 

            To chase or not chase.

            https://vixology.substack.com/p/give-me-one-reason

 

            Margin debt down again.

            https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2026/04/20/margin-debt-down-2-6-in-march-second-straight-decline

 

            The option tail is wagging the dog.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/options-tail-wagging-dog

 

Summary: Tech is trading like nothing sticks. NDX has broken the range and stayed bid despite being deep in overbought territory, with flows and options driving the move. The shift to spot-up, vol-up has forced upside chasing via calls, reinforcing the squeeze and keeping pressure on dealers. The bid is real, but it’s increasingly driven by positioning and options, not clean fundamentals. The options tail is wagging the dog.

 

Tuesday morning setup: The optimism that helped list the S&P on 11 of the prior 12 days, and the Nasdaq on 13 consecutive days until Monday's modest pullback, is back - because one can apparently draw the same exact event for 3 weeks now - and sending US equity futures higher again on signs that Iran will attend talks with the US, while the US president said it’s “highly unlikely” that he’d extend the truce. As of 8:00am, S&P 500 futures rose 0.4%, rebounding from Monday’s decline, and supported by solid earnings, the AI narrative and positioning even as the situation in the Middle East remains unresolved. Nasdaq 100 futures rose 0.5% with most Mag 7 names higher: AMZN +2.8%, META +0.6%, AAPL -0.4%. Apple announced its new CEO after yesterday’s close (hardware chief John Ternus will become the CEO effective September 1st); AMZN announced it will invest another $25bn in Anthropic with Anthropic committing to spending more than $100bn over the next 10yr on AWS. 10Y yields added 1bps to 4.26%. Commodities are mostly lower: Copper -0.5%, Silver -1.0%, WTI crude was flat at $87.60 per barrel, reversing a modest loss. Retail sales and Warsh’s confirmation hearing will be in focus later.

           

 

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

 

March retail sales were up 1.7% versus consensus of +1.4%; ex autos, they were up 1.9% versus +1.4%.

                          https://www.zerohedge.com/personal-finance/us-employment-additions-accelerate-retail-sales-soar-march

 

                        International

 

The February UK unemployment rate was 4.9% versus predictions of 5.2%; February average earnings were up 3.8% versus +3.6%.

 

The April EU economic sentiment index came in at -20.4 versus estimates of -3.6; the April German economic sentiment index was -17.2 versus -5.0; the April German current conditions index was -73.7 versus -70.0.

 

                        Other

 

                          Light vehicle sales up in March.

                          https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2026/04/20/vehicle-sales-rise-3-7-in-march

 

                          The whiplash economy.

                          https://stayathomemacro.substack.com/p/whiplash-economy

 

                          It is a ‘muddle through’ world.

                          https://www.advisorperspectives.com/commentaries/2026/04/20/data-divergent

 

                          The BLS jobs report is broken.

                          https://www.advisorperspectives.com/commentaries/2026/04/20/bls-jobs-report-broken-better-measure

 

                          Update on per capita real retail spending.

                              https://bonddad.blogspot.com/2026/04/updating-long-leading-indicators-per.html

                       

                          On borrowed time.

                          https://www.zerohedge.com/commodities/were-borrowed-time-vitol-lng-chief-warns-coming-food-price-shock

 

            Iran

 

              Overnight news.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/iran-says-no-plans-talks-after-us-seizure-cargo-ship-pakistanis-contradict-oil-prices

 

            Monetary Policy

 

              Walsh pitches rate cuts but his colleagues are skeptical.

              https://www.wsj.com/economy/central-banking/fed-interest-rates-warsh-ai-bc92f894?mod=economy_lead_story

 

            Fisal Policy

 

              The problem with Kevin Warsh’s wealth.

              https://www.forbes.com/sites/johntamny/2026/04/19/the-problem-with-kevin-warsh-isnt-his-wealth-its-his-wealth/

 

              The Trump administration prepares to refund tariffs.

              https://www.nytimes.com/2026/04/20/us/politics/trump-administration-tariff-refunds.html?unlocked_article_code=1.cVA.s4Y9.zuPOuGja1Psj&smid=url-share

 

            Inflation

 

              Don’t expect gasoline prices to soon return to prewar levels.

              https://econbrowser.com/archives/2026/04/using-todays-futures-dont-expect-gasoline-prices-to-soon-return-to-antebellum-levels

 

            The Dollar

 

              The foundation for dollar dominance is weakening.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/foundations-dollar-dominance-are-weaker-anticipated

 

     Investing

 

            Why the stock market makes no sense right now.

            https://www.nytimes.com/2026/04/18/opinion/wall-street-markets-iran-ai.html?unlocked_article_code=1.cVA.kxgQ.vF1AAIriUFt-&smid=url-share

 

            Why panic is a costly mistake.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/market-lesson-why-panic-costly-mistake

 

            Your odds are not the average.

            https://www.polymathinvestor.com/p/your-odds-are-not-the-average

 

            Investors are just having fun.

            https://wolfstreet.com/2026/04/17/nasdaq-up-by-60-since-liberation-day-selloff-and-by-100-in-3-years-people-are-just-having-fun/

 

            Earnings outlook remains strong.

            https://talkmarkets.com/article/earnings-outlook-remains-very-strong-a-closer-look-1776478888

 

            Tokens do have real uses in finance.

            https://giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/actions/redeem/0e82ffd6-00a1-41d6-ac26-4e72da5f69b2

 

            Energy: a buying opportunity.

            ENERGY: A Buying Opportunity

 

Summary: we reckon that the price of a barrel of Brent crude oil will fluctuate between $75 and $95 once the war ends. We don't think it will fall back to the pre-war range of $55-$75 anytime soon (chart). Importantly, physical damage to energy infrastructure in the countries around the Arabian Gulf, combined with fundamental changes in maritime insurance and transit confidence, means that even a full reopening of the Strait of Hormuz would not immediately restore normal flows. The supply shock is likely to have a long tail.

 

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

 

 

What I am reading today

 

            The wealth gap is not what you think it is.

            https://www.realclearmarkets.com/articles/2026/04/20/the_wealth_gap_is_decidedly_not_what_you_think_it_is_1177529.html

 

 

Visit Investing for Survival’s website (http://investingforsurvival.com/home) to learn more about our Investment Strategy, Prices Disciplines and Subscriber Service.

 

 

 

Monday Morning Chartology

 

The Morning Call

 

4/20/26

 

 

The Market

         

    Technical

 

Another spectacular week for the S&P. It has now made a new all-time high resetting all three DMAs to support. As you know, I approached this upside move cautiously---which couldn’t have been more wrong. Nonetheless, I am loath to chase this upswing, especially with (now) three gap up opens sitting below. The only good news in this trading error is that a number of stocks on my Buy List have remained within buying parameters. So with any retreat, I can make a delayed entry.

 

Mean reversion is faster now.

https://trendlabs.com/volatility-mean-reverts/

 

Insiders have stopped buying.

https://talkmarkets.com/article/when-insiders-stop-buying-should-you-worry-1776386275

 

Risk is back on.

https://www.stockmarketmedia.com/2026-04-17/risk-back-offense

 

We overshot the mark.

(3) We've Overshot The Mark: QTR With Michelle Makori

 

Summary: There’s a growing sense that we’ve moved past the major risks—that geopolitical tensions will fade, growth will hold up, and central banks will remain supportive—but I don’t think that confidence is grounded in reality.

 

 

 

 

TLT was up slightly on the week and appears to have found at least a temporary bottom at the lower boundary of its very short term trading range. However, it remains below all DMAs and in downtrends across all major timeframes. With stagflation the likely result of the destruction wrought on the oil infrastructure, I am hard pressed to think that bond prices are going to improve markedly.

 

           

 

 

 

 

 

Gold continued its comeback. But it still in a very short term downtrend marked by the top and the lower high. The good news is that (1) it has reestablished its 100 DMA as support, (2) it remains in uptrends across all time frames and (3) still has one gap down open overhead that needs to be filled. I will likely rebuild my GDX position when it breaks through that very short term downtrend.

 

 

 

 

The dollar broke that very short term uptrend marked by series of higher lows. In addition, it is now reset all its DMAs to resistance. But as you can see there is near in support lower at the lower boundary of its short term trading range and the lower boundary of its intermediate term uptrend. Still, the macroeconomic backdrop of the US economy (slow growth and rising inflation) suggests a low to lower dollar.

 

 

 

 

            Friday in the charts.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/strait-new-record-highs-hormuz-hopes-sparks-risk-wrecking-ball-across-markets

 

Summary: Today reminded us of the days of yore when politicians and policymakers did (or said) "whatever it takes" to keep the dream alive and "baffle 'em with bullshit" was the methodology. Despite, conflicting/confusing headlines around opening the Strait and de-nuclearization (Trump extremely enthusiastic that a deal is imminent), markets moved first before thinking with oil crashing (dragging bond yields and the dollar down) while stocks, gold, and bitcoin all ripped higher and rate-cut odds improved. The first green Friday since the start of the war. The betting folk don't seem so enthused...

 

 

                Friday in the technical stats.

            https://www.barchart.com/stocks/momentum

            https://www.barchart.com/stocks/market-performance

            https://www.barchart.com/stocks/sectors/rankings

            https://www.barchart.com/stocks/signals/new-recommendations

 

Monday morning setup: Futures are lower, but well off session lows, after a weekend of chaos in the Strait of Hormuz cast doubt over US-Iran peace talks ahead of Tuesday’s ceasefire expiration. On Saturday, Iran said the Strait will be closed until the US blockade is lifted, with ships reporting attacks. The US then fired and seized an Iranian-flagged ship on Sunday. Both headlines point to a re-escalation, as Iran military has now vowed to retaliate. It remains unclear whether the peace talks will continue ahead of the April 22nd deadline: POLITICO yesterday reported that Trump will continue peace talks with Iran in Pakistan on Monday, while Iran said in a news conference that they have “no plan” for next round of negotiation (here), although subsequent reports from AP indicated the opposite. There’s a big earnings week ahead, and top Wall Street strategists expect resilient numbers to support equities. As of 8:00am ET, S&P futures are down 0.5% following a succession of record highs; the Nasdaq is down 0.4% and set to end a near-record stretch of 13 consecutive gains. Pre-market, Mag 7 are all lower with NVDA (-1.2%), MSFT (-1.0%) and META (-1.0%) being the notable laggards. European stocks slid 1.1% while Asian stocks rose in a delayed catch up to the Friday melt up in the US. Bond yields rose sharply in Europe, whereas the moves in Treasuries were more modest. The dollar was little changed, erasing an earlier gain. WTI crude oil jumped $4.6 (or 5.5%) to $88.5; both base metals and precious metals are lower with gold briefly dropping below $4,800 an ounce, before recovering. The US session is quiet for scheduled data, while Fed’s external communications blackout period has now begun ahead of the April 29 policy announcement. 

 

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

The US stats were balanced last week with one positive (inflation) and one negative primary indicator. Overseas, the data was also balanced including two downbeat inflation readings.

 

We still aren’t seeing any economic effects of the Iran war and the turmoil in the private credit market in the data but it takes time for their inflationary impact to work its way into the system.

 

With respect to the dramatic rise in oil prices, it has been six weeks since the war began and even assuming a positive outcome to Iran negotiations, we have a couple more to go. Frankly, I don’t’ see how we escape the fallout from the massive destruction of the Mideast oil production infrastructure. And while we are seeing it real time at the pump, higher oil prices have yet to work their way into the macroeconomic numbers; although the anecdotal evidence pointing to higher inflation is arriving with increased frequency. Clearly, it will have some effect, but it is way beyond my level of expertise to forecast its magnitude.

https://www.capitalspectator.com/crisis-in-transit-wars-economic-fallout-is-only-beginning/

 

The private credit problem just keeps getting worse. However, several new studies pointed out that (1) while magnitude of the ultimate damage is still an unknown, we do know that private credit has produced no ancillary derivatives securities/markets and (2) during the great financial crisis, derivatives risk was sixfold greater than that of the underlying securities. So whatever the risk today, it is considerably less than it was during that episode. Which eases my concern with regard to the viability of our financial system.

 

Who said that there were no derivative contracts?

https://giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/actions/redeem/29418ab1-3d35-4fa4-9c80-6e0fb840d6c7

 

As I noted last week, I am feeling a little more optimistic about the economy. However, I am becoming more convinced that we are facing an inflation problem that could be worse than ‘inflation is as good as its going to get’. Which means my focus is starting to shift from worries about recession to those of stagflation.

https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2026/04/17/chart-ing-the-economy-week-of-april-6-10th-2026

 

                        US

 

                        International

 

  February EU construction output fell 1.9% versus forecasts of -1.2%.

 

  March German PPI was up 2.5% versus expectations of up 1.4%.

           

                        Other

           

                          Update on business cycle indicators.

                          https://econbrowser.com/archives/2026/04/industrial-and-manufacturing-production-and-other-business-cycle-indicators

 

                          The housing bubble in major US cities.

                          https://wolfstreet.com/2026/04/16/the-most-splendid-housing-bubbles-in-america-price-drops-gains-in-33-big-expensive-cities-march-2026/

 

                Fiscal Policy

 

                  Tax myths that won’t die.

                   https://reason.com/2026/04/16/the-rich-dont-pay-their-fair-share-and-4-other-tax-myths-that-wont-die/

                       

            Investing

                 

                  Yield curve rolldown.

              https://bondvigilantes.com/blog/2026/04/a-dispatch-from-the-number-crunchers-yield-curve-rolldown/

 

                  The latest from BofA.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/hartnett-its-bull-trap

 

Summary: Sell US Dollar: tariffs, threats end NATO, OPEC petrodollar recycling - there is a US dollar buyers strike as low appetite for more US assets (foreigners own $20tn US stocks, $10tn US Treasuries, $5tn US corporate bonds) to fund $39tn of US debt and its $1.2tn annual debt servicing cost; Fed pressure to cut grow; in sum, US policymakers will trade weaker dollar rather than higher bond yields to attract foreign capital.

Buy Commodities (picking up where he ended last week): commodities > stocks > bonds U S$ secular asset return pecking  order... commodities…risk hedge for allocators, inflation hedge for allocators, US$ bear market hedge for allocators, plus geopolitics now driven by need to monopolize commodities, or as Hartnett put it, "who owns the chips, rare earths, minerals, oil, wins the AI war."

Buy China: biggest equity winners since Trump inauguration are US-China AI war winners (US semis, Asia tech, Canada/LatAm materials), and here the China tech stocks are catching up bigly: the ChiNext index is breaking out.

Buy Consumer: US consumer discretionary at Lehman 2008 & COVID 2020 relative lows (equal-weighted); global consumer discretionary at 3-year lows vs energy stocks; this suggests that the consumer has priced in stagflation more than any other sector, which is why it is Hartnett's favorite contrarian long to trade Trump post-war pivot to address affordability & slump in approval ratings, and a great way to hedge H2'2020s electoral shift from "populist capitalism" to "populist socialism".

 

What I am reading today

 

 

Visit Investing for Survival’s website (http://investingforsurvival.com/home) to learn more about our Investment Strategy, Prices Disciplines and Subscriber Service.

 

 

 

The Morning Call---Cash for nukes?

 

The Morning Call

 

4/17/26

 

The Market

         

    Technical

 

            Thursday in the charts.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/ceasefire-squeeze-morphs-spot-vol-panic-buying-stocks-bonds-credit-crude-aint-buying-it

 

Summary: Dramatic decoupling between oil and bond yields (both up) and stocks (up notably, led by tech) as stocks broadly shrugged off ceasefire-deal-timeline doubts and the 'spot up, vol up' chase into OpEx accelerated. The dollar (unch), gold (unch), and bitcoin (unch) all moved in a tight range on the day. and remember, as we detailed earlier, tomorrow brings with it a big 'gamma unclench' which could threaten the stability of this meltup in stocks.

 

            Thursday in the technical stats.

            https://www.barchart.com/stocks/momentum

            https://www.barchart.com/stocks/market-performance

            https://www.barchart.com/stocks/sectors/rankings

            https://www.barchart.com/stocks/signals/new-recommendations

 

            Whiplash rally.

            https://www.capitalspectator.com/whiplash-rally-stocks-hit-new-high-just-days-after-sharp-drop/

 

            Warning signs building.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/nothing-matters-until-it-suddenly-does

 

Summary: The market has been quick to dismiss macro signals, with flows and positioning continuing to dominate the tape. What looks like a strong move higher is increasingly being driven by mechanical buying, not fundamentals. At the same time, several warning signs are starting to build beneath the surface, with narrow leadership, stretched positioning, and cheap hedging standing out.

 

            Upside grab faces major ‘gamma unclench’ today.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/spot-vol-upside-grab-faces-major-gamma-unclench-hurdle-tomorrow

 

 

Summary: The dealer gamma position is currently an extreme long. This is the single biggest signal change this week. Into OpEx tomorrow, dealers are now massively long gamma, which means they sell into strength and buy into weakness - the market is blanketed in a dampening effect. This sets up a grind/pin scenario into Friday's expiration. The base case is SPX stays in the 7,000–7,040 range unless today's data or geopolitics delivers a shock. Stay with the index vol sell / single stock vol buy structure - this is the last 24 hours where that trade has maximum gamma tailwind. Into next week we think there will be an equity correction as the index vol support goes away, and positive gamma tumbles.

 

 

            Goldman trader not chasing upside.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/im-not-chasing-upside-here-goldman-delta-one-desk-heads-suggests-caution-narrow-breakout

 

                        Summary: Lessons learned...1.) everything is technical in the short term… fundamentals are a crutch. And…2.) being early = being wrong.

From here...key risk is that CTA + expiry demand fades after this week. Watching PB data for evidence of re-risking. One clear signal… massive SPX call delta buying this week. I’m still cautious… not chasing upside here… but waiting to see if flows exhaust and fundamentals reassert.

 

            However, retail is chasing the upside.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/after-panicking-bottom-retail-now-chasing-meltup

 

Summary: Retail flows improved to $6.6B this week, just below the 12-month avg of $6.7B/week. Retail investors continued to favor ETFs (+$4.7B) over Single Stocks (+$1.9B). Outside of Broad Based Equity ETFs (+$1.8B), retail ETF buying was influenced by Equity Sector Technology (+$344M, 2.1z), Equity Style Call/ Put Writing (+$198M), Fixed Income — Multi Sector (+198M) and Equity Style Dividend (+$196M). Conversely, retail investors sold Fixed Income — Money Market (-$263M, -2.6z) and Short-Term Treasuries (-$167M, -3.8z). This week, and in line with prior weeks, retail investors continued to buy AI datacenters and electrification (JPAMAIDE), Top 30 AI/Datacenter Beneficiaries, Mag 7, along with Growth and AI Software/Product/Monetization. Activity in Mag7 this week: Retail investors bought: MSFT (+$611M, 2.3z), TSLA (+ $517M), META (+$193M), GOOGL/GOOG (+$113M), AAPL (+$25M), and sold: AMZN (-$70M), NVDA (-$94M). Outside of Mag7, retail investors favored Tech (+$704M), Industrials (+$242M) and Financials (+$140M) and were net sellers of Energy (-377M), Health Care (-$89M) and Consumer Discretionary (-$74M). Top 5 retail stocks last week: MSFT (+$611M, 2.3z), TSLA (+$517M), SNDK (+ $246M, 3.0z), META (+$193M) and TSM (+$159M). Bottom 5 retail stocks: NVDA (-$94M), AMD (-$90M), NBIS (-$89M, -3.2z), XOM (-$82M) and AMZN (-$70M).

 

            And so are CTAs.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/ctas-bought-86bn-last-week-they-have-another-70bn-next-five-sessions

               

Summary: And what is even more remarkable is that the bank's futures strategists have this cohort modelled to purchase an additional $70 billion of the next 5 sessions... and that's in a flat tape. As a reminder, CTAs buy VWAP style, and on days like yesterday and today, with little news out an a constant grind higher of the S&P, shows just how impactful they are in the market. What happens next? While past performance is not indicative of future returns, Garrett writes that previous episodes of accelerated CTA demand have seen short term consolidation, followed by medium term strength for S&P500 (t+1 month =+ 2.19% avg return, t+3m = +8.18% avg return).

 

Friday morning setup: Stocks are pushing higher again on the same old regurgitated news: namely speculation that a deal to end the war between the US and Iran is getting closer, the same exact "speculation" that has pushed the Nasdaq higher for what will now be 13 days in a row, and the same speculation that may keep pushing stocks even higher until the reality of no ceasefire sends risk plunging in a few days. For now however, it is sufficient to lift markets thanks to the relentless CTA VWAP grind higher, and as of 8:15am, S&P futures are 0.4% higher, with Spoos trading above 7100 while Nasdaq futs gain 0.3% after both gauges hit record highs Thursday, with all Mag 7 stocks trading higher in the premarket (MSFT +1.1%, AAPL +0.8%). Netflix tumbled 10% after it gave a disappointing Q2 forecast and Reed Hastings announced he is stepping down as Chairman. The dollar was down 10 bps and headed for a February low. Global bonds were mixed, with the 10-year Treasury yield down two basis points at 4.30%. Overnight, headlines were largely quiet: while the date of the second round of US-Iran talk has not yet been determined, Trump signaled that talks could resume this weekend. Oil prices are extending their decline: WTI is down $4 below $88 with both Brent and WTI are both down around 4% for the session as traders await details of talks between the US and Iran following optimistic comments from President Trump. Base metals are all higher led by aluminum (+0.6%); Ags are mostly lower. No economic releases are expected today. Fed’s Daly, Barkin and Waller are scheduled to speak at events. Fed’s blackout period begins Saturday.

 

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

 

                        International

 

The February EU trade balance was +E11.5 billion versus consensus of +E11.7 billion.

 

                        Other

 

                          Americans using tax refunds to pay down debt.

  https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-04-16/higher-2026-tax-refunds-help-us-households-pay-down-credit-card-student-debt?utm_source=website&utm_medium=share&utm_campaign=copy

 

                          Jobless claims continue to be the most positive economic indicator.

                          https://bonddad.blogspot.com/2026/04/jobless-claims-continue-to-be-most.html

                       

            Iran

 

              Overnight: Cash for nukes?

              https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/three-page-plan-end-war-oil-tumbles-us-reportedly-mulls-20bn-cash-nukes-deal

 

              What the blockade means for Iran’s economy.

              https://www.nytimes.com/2026/04/16/business/economy/iran-oil-blockade.html?unlocked_article_code=1.bVA._yFi.SSedDrZBHZeJ&smid=url-share

 

            Monetary Policy

 

              The Fed chair showdown.

              https://www.wsj.com/economy/central-banking/the-decades-old-legal-question-at-the-heart-of-the-fed-chair-showdown-416f6fc8

 

                           ECB minutes confirm hawkish pivot.

              https://talkmarkets.com/article/ecb-minutes-from-march-meeting-confirm-hawkish-pivot-1776345607

 

            Inflation

 

              Drought affecting 60% of US farmers.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/weather/drought-engulfs-60-us-farmers-begin-spring-planting

 

              Aluminum market descends into supply black hole.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/commodities/aluminum-market-descends-supply-black-hole

 

              Gulf war leaves $58 billion repair bill.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/energy/gulf-war-leaves-58-billion-repair-bill-and-global-equipment-crunch

 

                  Critical shortage of jet fuel.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/energy/critical-shortage-jet-fuel-eu-airlines-have-just-6-weeks-supply-left

 

              Gulf war may spark shortage of critical industrial chemical.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/gulf-shock-may-spark-shortage-worlds-most-critical-industrial-chemical-used-heavily

 

            The Financial System

 

The private credit problem says more about Washington than it does about finance.

https://www.wsj.com/economy/central-banking/the-decades-old-legal-question-at-the-heart-of-the-fed-chair-showdown-416f6fc8?st=CxNRVt&reflink=desktopwebshare_permalink

 

              Banks increasing exposure to trading firms increase ‘inherent fragility’.

              https://giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/actions/redeem/14e0c0fb-2c0b-4b6a-a57f-07e3b1df1122

 

            The Dollar

 

              The dollar is not dead nor dying.

              https://www.advisorperspectives.com/commentaries/2026/04/16/on-mind-dollar-dead-long-live-dollar

 

     Investing

 

            Understanding volatility.

            https://larryswedroe.substack.com/p/understanding-market-volatility-what

 

            April outlook for dividends.

            https://politicalcalculations.blogspot.com/2026/04/the-outlook-for-s-500-dividends-in.html

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

 

 

What I am reading today

 

            The regulatory battle to make gold a bank asset.

            https://talkmarkets.com/article/the-regulatory-battle-to-make-gold-a-bank-asset-just-hit-a-major-turning-point-1776359399

 

 

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