The Morning Call---Have a great Thanksgiving

 

The Morning Call

Including four must read articles

 

11/21/25

 

 

I am taking Thanksgiving week off.  I hope you have a very happy holiday.

 

The Market

         

    Technical

 

            Thursday in the charts.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/mega-caps-crypto-pumped-dumped-ahead-largest-nov-opex-history

 

Quote: Including today (dating back to since 1957) there have been 8 instances where the S&P 500 gaps up more than 1% only to reverse and close in the red.

On the bright side here is S&P 500’s average performance after these 8 instances: 1 day later +233bps, 1 week later +288bps, 1 month later +472bps.

 

            Thursday in the technical stats.

            https://www.barchart.com/stocks/momentum

            https://www.barchart.com/stocks/sectors/rankings

            https://www.barchart.com/stocks/signals/new-recommendations

 

            Three record breaking streaks are over. How worried should we be?

            https://www.carsongroup.com/insights/blog/three-record-breaking-streaks-are-over-how-worried-should-bulls-be/

 

            The latest from Citadel.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/week-decides-year-citadel-flows-guru-says-seasonals-kick-today

 

            The latest from Goldman.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/whats-behind-todays-brutal-selloff-goldmans-technical-checklist

 

            Crypto flush.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/crypto/bitcoin-flash-crashes-below-82000-ubs-says-flush-needed-turning-more-constructive

 

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

 

                          October existing home sales were up 1.2% versus consensus of +0.9%.

                          https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2025/11/20/existing-home-sales-rise-1-2-to-8-month-high

 

The November Kansas City manufacturing index was 18 versus projections of 12.

 

                        International

 

October UK retail sales fell 1.7% versus predictions of +0.1%; ex fuel, they were down 1.0% versus -0.2%; November consumer confidence was -19, in line.

 

The October Japanese CPI was up 0.4% versus forecasts of -0.1%; the October trade balance was -Y231.8 billion versus -Y250.0 billion.

 

The November Japanese flash manufacturing PMI was 48.8 versus expectations of 49.0; the flash services PMI was 53.1 versus 52.8; the flash composite PMI was 52.0 versus 50.6; the November German flash manufacturing PMI was 49.4 versus 50.1; the flash services PMI was 52.7 versus 53.8; the flash composite PMI was 52.1 versus 53.2; the November EU flash manufacturing PMI was 49.7 versus 50.9; the flash services PMI was 53.1 versus 52.3; the flash composite PMI was 52.4 versus 52.2; the November UK flash manufacturing PMI was 50.2 versus 49.5; the flash services PMI was 50.5 versus 52.0; the flash composite PMI was 50.5 versus 52.6.

 

                        Other

                       

                          Output is abundance is affordability.

                          https://scottsumner.substack.com/p/output-is-abundance-is-affordability

           

                          The paradox on prosperity.

  https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2025-11-20/the-american-middle-class-is-shrinking-and-that-s-ok?srnd=homepage-americas&sref=loFkkPMQ

 

 

                          A deep dive into September’s jobs report.

                              https://bonddad.blogspot.com/2025/11/september-jobs-report-positive-if-stale.html

 

            Recession

 

              Update on big four recession indicators.

              https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2025/11/20/the-big-four-recession-indicators-september-2025-employment

 

              The latest Atlanta Fed GDP nowcast.

              https://www.atlantafed.org/cqer/research/gdpnow

 

            Geopolitics

 

              Ukraine and Europe skeptical of Trump peace plan.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/ukraine-europe-reject-trumps-russia-peace-plan-prepare-emergency-call

 

     Investing

 

            How can we be sure of what we think that we know?

            https://investmentecosystem.com/2025/11/13/how-do-we-know/

 

            The crypto bear market.

            https://www.howardlindzon.com/p/the-crypto-bear-market-of-2025-makes-sense-to-me

 

            The dash for trash has been driven by retail option traders.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/painful-dash-trash-driven-speculative-retail-options-traders-socgen

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

Nike (NKE) declared $0.41/share quarterly dividend, 2.5% increase from prior dividend of $0.40.

 

Home Depot (HD) declared $2.30/share quarterly dividend, in line with previous.

 

 

What I am reading today

 

            Cultural confidence.

            https://www.realclearmarkets.com/articles/2025/11/20/cultural_confidence_the_missing_ingredient_of_western_prosperity_1148493.html

 

            What is wrong with how the economics curriculum is being taught?

            https://jamesgmartin.center/2025/11/what-is-wrong-with-economics-education/

 

 

Visit Investing for Survival’s website (http://investingforsurvival.com/home) to learn more about our Investment Strategy, Prices Disciplines and Subscriber Service.

 

 

 

The Morning Call--Investor dilemma

 

The Morning Call

 

11/4/25

 

The Market

         

    Technical

 

            Monday in the charts.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/short-squeezers-shredded-dash-trash-disappoints-crypto-crushed-credit-weak

 

            Monday in the technical stats.

            https://www.barchart.com/stocks/momentum

            https://www.barchart.com/stocks/sectors/rankings

            https://www.barchart.com/stocks/signals/new-recommendations

 

            Gold pushes higher, holding technical uptrend.

                        https://talkmarkets.com/content/commodities/gold-pushes-higher-on-political-stalemate-weak-growth-signals-and-technical-uptrend?post=532994

 

            Technical analysis warning for crypto.

            https://talkmarkets.com/content/crypto-breakdown-technical-analysis-warning-for-crypto-investors-in-eth-sol-xrp-avax-link-ada?post=533016

 

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

 

                          The October manufacturing PMI came in at 52.5 versus consensus of 52.2.

                           https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2025/11/03/sp-global-manufacturing-pmi-october-2025

 

The October ISM manufacturing index was 48.7 versus projections of 49.5.

https://bonddad.blogspot.com/2025/11/ism-manufacturing-confirms-regional.html

 

October total vehicle sales were 15.3 million versus forecasts of 15.6 million.

                                               

                        International

 

The October Japanese manufacturing PMI was 48.2 versus predictions of 48.3.

 

                        Other

 

                          Labor market indicators amidst the shutdown.

                          https://econbrowser.com/archives/2025/11/labor-market-indicators-amidst-the-shutdown

 

                          Lumber prices down 3% YoY.

                          https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2025/11/update-lumber-prices-down-3-yoy.html

 

            Overnight News

 

The outlines of a potential deal to end the [US government] shutdown are starting to take shape, although the talks are very fragile at this point and there’s still a long way to go.

 

A string of alleged frauds by corporate borrowers is spurring a reckoning across Wall Street, sending bankers and investors scrambling to prevent future blowups.

 

Wall Street seems unworried about the lackluster breadth of the equity market rally, despite parallels to the tech bubble of the late 1990s. The charge is increasingly led by a handful of tech companies, with the ratio of S&P 500 Equal Weighted Index to the S&P 500 at its lowest since 2003.

 

            Monetary Policy

 

              The Fed Funds rate is becoming a meaningless measure.

                          https://wolfstreet.com/2025/11/01/what-does-the-federal-funds-rate-which-the-fed-targets-still-measure-not-much-mostly-a-bizarre-arbitrage-trade/

 

              Goldman thinks that the Fed will still cut rates in December.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/goldman-powells-halloween-curse-december-fed-cut-still-our-baseline

 

Liquidity problems in the repo market could lead to a Market meltup once the government shutdown is over.

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/all-hell-breaks-loose-repo-markets-and-why-historica-meltup-could-follow

 

            Inflation

 

              What if Markets are too relaxed about inflation?

              https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/deutsche-asks-what-if-markets-are-too-relaxed-about-inflation

 

            Recession

           

              GDP is hot.

              GDP IS HOT

           

              US outgrows all major peers.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/united-states-outgrows-all-its-major-peers

 

            The Financial System

 

              Office building delinquencies rate hits record high.

https://wolfstreet.com/2025/11/01/office-cmbs-delinquency-rate-hits-record-11-8-percent-much-worse-than-financial-crisis-meltdown-multifamily-delinquency-rate-soars-to-7-1-percent/

 

 

            Tariffs

 

              SCOTUS should rule against Trump’s tariffs.

              https://www.realclearmarkets.com/articles/2025/11/03/we_are_a_republic_which_means_scotus_should_rule_against_trump_tariffs_1144842.html

 

     Investing

 

            What does the rise in gold’s price mean?

            https://www.forbes.com/sites/johntamny/2025/11/02/a-different-way-of-looking-at-the-rally-in-the-price-of-gold/

 

            Investor dilemma: Pavlov rings the bell.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/investor-dilemma-pavlov-rings-bell

 

            Is it 1999 all over again?

https://www.riskhedge.com/outplacement/are-we-living-through-1999-all-over-again/rcm?utm_campaign=RH-144&utm_content=RH144OP829&utm_medium=ED&utm_source=rcm

 

            Dumb money triumphant.

            https://www.acadian-asset.com/investment-insights/owenomics/dumb-money-triumphant

 

            The most important factor driving stock prices is earnings and they are growing.

            https://www.tker.co/p/sp-500-forward-pe-high-aug-2020

 

            The impact congress has on stock prices.

            https://klementoninvesting.substack.com/p/government-crowding-out

 

            Update on valuations.

            https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2025/11/03/pe10-market-valuation-october-2025

                https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2025/11/03/qratio-market-valuation-october-2025

                https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2025/11/03/regression-to-trend-s-p-composite-198-above-trend-in-october

 

            Strategies for a crisis.

            https://www.advisorperspectives.com/commentaries/2025/11/03/have-questions-readers

 

            Treasuries rally proving critics wrong.

            https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2025-11-02/us-treasury-rally-stuns-wall-street-with-best-return-since-2020?srnd=homepage-americas&sref=loFkkPMQ

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

 

 

What I am reading today

 

           

 

 

Visit Investing for Survival’s website (http://investingforsurvival.com/home) to learn more about our Investment Strategy, Prices Disciplines and Subscriber Service.

 

 

 

The Morning Call---The zero risk illusion

 

The Morning Call

 

 

 

The Market

         

    Technical

 

            Monday in the charts.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/market-recaps/everything-bid

 

            More charts.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/wrap-they-puked-low-now-its-melt-mode

 

            Monday in the technical stats.

            https://www.barchart.com/stocks/momentum

            https://www.barchart.com/stocks/sectors/rankings

            https://www.barchart.com/stocks/signals/new-recommendations

 

            The latest from Goldman’s desk.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/2025-stands-out-goldman-sentiment-signal-turns-red-stocks-record-highs

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/markets-remain-remarkably-resilient-top-goldman-trader-says-geopolitics-arent-problem

                        https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/if-you-want-be-serious-bear-right-now

           

            Margin debt jumps to record high.

            https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2025/10/20/margin-debt-finra-jumps-new-record-high-september-2025

 

            Silver’s melt up meets gravity.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/silvers-melt-meets-gravity-partys-over

 

            Gold euphoria turns dangerous.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/enough-enough-golds-euphoria-turns-dangerous

 

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

 

                        International

 

                        Other

 

                          Alternative data during shutdown.

                          https://www.apolloacademy.com/alternative-data-during-the-shutdown-2/

 

                          Estimated initial jobless claims are lower than last year.

                          https://bonddad.blogspot.com/2025/10/initial-claims-lower-than-one-year-ago.html

 

            Monetary Policy

 

              Will Friday’s delayed CPI report derail the expected October rate cut?

              https://www.capitalspectator.com/will-fridays-delayed-cpi-report-derail-another-rate-cut/

 

            Tariffs

 

              Trade wars have undermined the dollar exchange system.

              https://www.realclearmarkets.com/articles/2025/10/20/trade_wars_have_undermined_the_dollar_exchange_system_1141841.html

 

            The Financial System

 

              The Tricolor debacle is not a sign of a weakened consumer.

 https://wolfstreet.com/2025/10/17/ai-powered-tricolor-and-its-mushroom-cloud-of-fraud-allegations-are-a-sign-greedy-lenders-closed-their-eyes-for-years-not-a-sign-consumers-are-cracking-or-whatever/

 

                          How bad is it?

              https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/ndfis-are-new-alt-bofa-warns-forced-selling-if-private-credit-issues-persist-it-really-bad

 

            Geopolitics

 

              US/Australia sign major rare earths deal.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/commodities/rare-earths-stocks-soar-after-mega-us-australia-minerals-deal-slash-dependence-china

 

     Investing

 

            Real time bubble check list.

            https://ritholtz.com/2025/10/realtime-bubble-checklist/

 

A bad sign for the stock market (the author fails to note that investors have been BTFD since the 2009 low).

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/this-is-a-bad-sign-for-the-stock-market-3c069d3b?st=xatmMm

 

            The zero risk illusion.

            https://www.advisorperspectives.com/commentaries/2025/10/20/psychology-investing-zero-risk-illusion

 

            The latest from the Portfolio Strategist.

            https://etfps.substack.com/p/the-etf-portfolio-strategist-19-oct

 

            Speculative bull run and the value of a bearish tilt.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/speculative-bull-runs-and-value-bearish-tilt

 

            Three retirement mistakes to avoid.

            https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/personalfinance/retirement/2025/10/19/retirement-savings-mistakes/86724095007/

 

            A gold attribution model.

            https://mrzepczynski.blogspot.com/2025/10/gold-not-following-fundamental-model.html

 

            Is the gold correction over?

            https://www.zerohedge.com/precious-metals/doe-gold-correction-have-more-run

 

            Crypto world warning.

            https://thehill.com/opinion/finance/5548075-crypto-rug-pull-warning/

 

            Counterpoint.

                        https://www.riskhedge.com/outplacement/cryptos-latest-victim-is/rcm?utm_campaign=RH-144&utm_content=RH144OP824&utm_medium=ED&utm_source=rcm

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

 

 

What I am reading today

 

           

 

 

Visit Investing for Survival’s website (http://investingforsurvival.com/home) to learn more about our Investment Strategy, Prices Disciplines and Subscriber Service.