Wednesday, October 15, 2025

The Morning Call---Powell tilts dovish

 

The Morning Call

 

10/15/25

 

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The Market

         

    Technical

 

            Tuesday in the charts.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/market-recaps/us-china-headline-roulette-dovish-powell-leave-stocks-bonds-gold-higher

 

                Tuesday in the technical stats.

            https://www.barchart.com/stocks/momentum

            https://www.barchart.com/stocks/sectors/rankings

            https://www.barchart.com/stocks/signals/new-recommendations

 

            Latest from Goldman’s desk.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/goldman-market-feels-hotel-california

 

            Update on advance/decline line.

            https://bonddad.blogspot.com/2025/10/more-on-stock-market-indexes-advance.html

 

            Low bond volatility is a precursor to a big move in yields.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/low-bond-volatility-precursor-larger-move-yields

 

            Technical analysis of gold.

                https://talkmarkets.com/content/commodities/technical-analysis-gold-tuesday-oct-14?post=528314

 

            Gold overbought (selling the other half of my GDX).

            https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/gold-more-overbought-1980-upside-panic

 

 

    Fundamental

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

 

Weekly mortgage applications dropped 1.8% while purchase applications were down 2.7%.

 

Month to date retail chain store sales grew 5.9% versus 5.8% in the prior week.

 

The October NY Fed manufacturing index came in at 10.7 versus forecasts of -5.

                          https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/new-york-factory-activity-surged-october-jobs-orders-jump

 

                        International

           

August Japanese industrial production fell 1.5% versus projections of -1.2%; August EU industrial production was down 1.2% versus -2.2%.

 

September Chinese CPI was up 0.1%, in line.

 

                        Other

 

            Monetary Policy

 

              In speech, Powell tilts dovish.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/watch-live-fed-chair-powell-delivers-first-post-fomc-post-shutdown-speech

 

              At what level is the Fed balance sheet ample?

              https://mishtalk.com/economics/fed-debates-whether-a-6-trillion-balance-sheet-is-ample/

 

            Fiscal Policy

 

              Some good news on the budget deficit.

              https://www.advisorperspectives.com/commentaries/2025/10/14/underneath-noise-budget-deficit-progress

 

              How much will we lose lending to Argentina?

              https://econbrowser.com/archives/2025/10/how-much-will-we-lose-lending-to-argentina

 

              The great ‘debasement trade’.

              https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-10-13/the-great-debasement-debate-is-rippling-across-global-markets?srnd=homepage-americas&sref=loFkkPMQ

 

                          A contrarian view of the ‘debasement trade’.

            https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2025/10/the-huge-us-bond-market-and-the-us-dollar-blow-off-the-debasement-trade.html

 

            Geopolitics

 

              Are US/Russia tensions about to spiral out of control?

              https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/will-russian-us-tensions-likely-spiral-out-control-if-ukraine-obtains-tomahawk

 

     Investing

 

            The return of tariff man.

            https://alhambrapartners.com/weekly-market-pulse-the-return-of-tariff-man-2/?src=news

 

            Boring can be a good thing.

            https://www.marketwatch.com/story/this-boring-stock-and-bond-portfolio-wont-give-you-bragging-rights-but-it-does-make-you-money-0e2a82ef?st=i2bSMh

 

            Thinking about the AI bubble.

            https://disciplinefunds.com/2025/10/11/three-things-weekend-reading-18/

 

            Gold not following the model.

            https://mrzepczynski.blogspot.com/2025/10/gold-not-following-fundamental-model.html

 

            Gold is the new bitcoin.

            Gold Is The New Bitcoin!

 

            A dollar rally could be the next jolt to the Market.

            https://www.ft.com/content/16ac846c-4d71-4886-9ffa-2b01dc4dfe99

 

            Update on Q3 S&P earnings dashboard.

            https://talkmarkets.com/content/us-markets/sp-500-earnings-dashboard-25q3-tuesday-oct-14?post=528312

 

            It is mathematically impossible to beat the S&P.

            https://rockandturner.substack.com/p/beat-the-s-and-p500-mathematically

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

What I am reading today

 

           

 

 

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