Monday Morning Chartology
What is there to say about this chart? All systems go.
The long bond has recovered the lower boundary of its short term uptrend. The issue is, were those two violations of that boundary head fakes or has the short term trend re-set to a trading range? The best positive indicator would be an advance to above 115 (establishing a higher high). An inability to do that would then set up 113.2 level as a lower high; and if followed by another confirmed break below the lower boundary of the short term uptrend, it would pretty much nail the change in trend. If that occurs, it would add weight to the ‘coming inflation’ thesis.
After breaking out of its short term downtrend and re-setting to a short term trading range, GLD has done zip. That makes me a little skeptical of the break. However, it is above its 50 day moving average. While it is now supporting the ‘coming inflation’ thesis, a failure to advance further would call this notion into question.
It would seem that TLT and GLD are both hesitating over whether inflation is upon us or not. I need both to confirm before I feel comfortable with that expectation.
The VIX remains near historical lows.
Update on margin debt (short):
The latest from the Bank of International Settlements (a bit long but a must read):
The latest from Ukraine (or not) (medium):
The latest from Iraq (medium):
Goldman on the latest data on the Japanese economy (medium):
And BofA on the end of the Japanese carry trade (medium):
The global hunt for taxes (medium):
Central banks are buying stocks (medium):
News on Stocks in Our Portfolios
This Week’s Data
International War Against Radical Islam