The Morning Call---PPI declines are less good than CPI declines

 

The Morning Call

 

7/16/26

 

The Market

         

    Technical

 

            Wednesday in the charts.

                        https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/hike-odds-hammered-bonds-bid-more-deflation-crude-dip-memory-stocks-slammed-mega-caps-surge

 

Summary: The rotation from Memory (winners) into MegaCaps continued today (AAPL, CRWV, & SPCX as potential catalysts) leaving broad equity markets rangebound (but Nasdaq rescued by 0-DTE Put covering). Rate-hike odds, yields, and the dollar fell on cool PPI (and lower oil). Bitcoin was bid while bullion did nothing. ...and all amid slow summer liquidity. Rate-hike odds tumbled again today after PPI confirmed CPI's coolness as Energy deflation drags down headline inflation and core price gains slow. Today's print basically takes a July hike off the table but leaves September in play (though now less than coin-flip)...

 

A rangebound session for the S&P 500 (one of the lowest ranges of year)...

...amid what Goldman called "incredibly quiet volumes" (down -11% vs. the 10dma), with their floor tilting 5.5% better for sale with HFs as large net sellers and LOs slightly better to buy

• HFs are -15% better for sale, which ranks in the 98th %-ile over the last yr.  Supply across Tech and Comms Svcs comprise most of their sell skew, while demand in HCare and Fins is muted
• LOs are slightly better to buy and look quite the opposite from HFs.  LOs are net to buy Tech and Comms Svcs, while selling Cons Disc and HCare

 

Wednesday in the technical stats.

https://www.barchart.com/stocks/momentum

https://www.barchart.com/stocks/market-performance

https://www.barchart.com/stocks/sectors/rankings

https://www.barchart.com/stocks/signals/new-recommendations

 

Thursday morning setup: Futures are lower, erasing much of yesterday's gain with both Nasdaq and Rusell lagging SPX, following a continued rollercoaster in Korea where stocks tumbled after the BOK hired rates for the first time in 3 years. As of 8:15am ET, S&P futures dropped 0.3%, while Nasdaq 100 contracts dropped 0.8%. In premarket trading, semis are weaker again while Mag7 is stronger (AMZN, GOOG, META, and MSFT all up are least 1.2%) with the market having "a defensive tilt as the AI theme is poised to move lower" per JPM. A strong earnings beat and raised sales outlook from TSMC failed to trigger fresh gains for the sector that has fueled most of this year’s stock market gains. Europe’s Stoxx 600 was down 0.6%. WTI trading in a tighter range into Trump’s speech, AI / Semis are driving mkts with TSM ADRs indicated -3.5% their print may not be enough to buoy the group. Korea moves to tighten rules around levered ETFs, so more near-term downside may ensue. US to set 25% tariff for Brazil on July 22, ex-beef / coffee / ethanol products. Pre-mkt, bond yields are +2bp with USD flat. Commodities are lower across all 3 complexes though base metals are bid. Today’s macro data focus is on Retail Sales where a stronger print may pull some inflows into consumer-related segments, which still have light positioning.

           

 

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

 

                          Weekly jobless claims totaled 208,000 versus consensus of 217,000.

 

June retail sales were up 0.2%, in line; ex autos, they were down 0.2% versus -0.1%.

 

The July Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index came in at 41.4 versus estimates of 13.0.

 

                        International

 

The May EU trade balance was -E7.8 billion versus expectations of +E1.6 billion.

 

May UK GDP grew 0.1%, in line; May industrial production fell 0.5% versus -0.1%; the May trade balance was -L1.04 billion versus -L3.9 billion; the May YoY construction output was down 1.8% versus -1.1%.

 

 

                        Other

 

                          Update from Ed Yardini.

                          Too Much Complacency?

 

            Overnight News

 

South Korea’s central bank raised interest rates for the first time in over three years, joining its global peers to tighten policy in the face of inflation fueled by the U.S.-Iran conflict. Bank of Korea Gov. Shin Hyun-song said that the bank would tighten policy further in coming months, citing stronger-than-expected economic growth and inflation. 

 

            Iran

 

              Where is this all going?

              https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/alastair-crooke-iran-war-30

 

              More not so positive analysis.

  https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2026/07/iran-war-trump-tacos-on-strait-of-hormuz-fee-as-blockade-starts-but-again-threatens-to-attack-iran-energy-and-critical-infrastructure-as-iran-warns-of-closure-of-bab-el-mandeb-destruction-of-gulf-st.html

 

 

            Monetary Policy

 

              Warsh and his star studded task force.

              https://mrzepczynski.blogspot.com/2026/07/warsh-and-star-studded-task-forces.html

 

              Latest Beige Book noted improved economic activity in 11 of 12 districts.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/beige-book-economic-activity-picked-11-12-districts-only-san-fran-flat-employers-invested

 

            Inflation

 

              PPI declines are less good than CPI declines.

              https://bonddad.blogspot.com/2026/07/producer-price-declines-are-less-good.html

 

              Ordinary folks’ CPI.

              https://econbrowser.com/archives/2026/07/real-wages-in-june

 

              Utilities requesting 26% increase in rate hikes.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/us-utilities-requested-92bn-rate-hikes-q2-26-previous-year

 

 

            AI

 

              Goldman warns of risks in massive hyperscalers’ bond issuance.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/good-it-gets-goldman-warns-hyperscaler-issuance-means-risk-skewed-downside

 

Summary: Hyperscalers are issuing record amounts of debt to fund their CapEx needs, which have been revised upward in recent quarters (as FCF goes negative)...

As Goldman's Spencer Rogers explains in his latest note (discussing the credit/equity divergence and available here for pro subs), this

transition to a higher-supply environment has weighed on credit technicals and increased dispersion, fundamentally altering the beta relationship between the two markets. Credit is also, by design, less exposed to upside convexity vs. its equity market peer.

 

                        In fact, signs of Hyperscaler credit stress (measured by the spread over US Treasuries) has reached the highest since Goldman Sachs launched the basket in February.

Biswas's conclusion is more ominous, noting that the current backdrop of healthy all-in IG yields and relatively benign default outlook probably represents the peak of the strength in credit inflows. The risks from here are clearly skewed towards the downside for credit inflows if rates rally and/or sentiment with regards to credit deteriorates.

 

 

            The Financial System

 

              Why high credit card delinquencies aren’t showing up at the banks.

  https://www.wsj.com/finance/banking/why-high-credit-card-delinquencies-arent-showing-up-at-the-big-banks-3476c217?st=iZEo73&reflink=desktopwebshare_permalink

 

     Investing

 

            The latest from John Hussman.

            https://www.advisorperspectives.com/commentaries/2026/07/15/mountain-cliff-ocean

 

            A perilous summer for stocks?

            https://giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/actions/redeem/62670203-bdce-4bbb-8585-a93d6647f7bf

 

            Stock buybacks remain high but what are insiders doing?

            https://www.marketwatch.com/story/corporate-america-is-pumping-1-trillion-into-stock-buybacks-but-look-at-what-insiders-are-doing-44854835?st=X791VM

 

            Headwinds and tailwinds.

            https://talkmarkets.com/article/headwinds-and-tailwinds-minding-the-market-weather-1784114670

 

            The outlook for S&P dividends.

            https://politicalcalculations.blogspot.com/2026/07/the-outlook-for-s-500-dividends-in-july.html

 

            The war, inflation and the yield premium.

            https://www.capitalspectator.com/junes-drop-in-the-yield-premium-faces-a-gulf%e2%80%91driven-reality-check/

 

            Global interest rates continue their broad ascent.

            https://talkmarkets.com/article/rising-rates-1784130778

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

 

What I am reading today

 

            The hedonic treadmill.

            https://seths.blog/2026/07/the-hedonic-treadmill/

 

 

Visit Investing for Survival’s website (http://investingforsurvival.com/home) to learn more about our Investment Strategy, Prices Disciplines and Subscriber Service.

 

 

 

The Morning Call---Reasons to be bullish for the rest of 2026

 

The Morning Call

 

7/9/26

 

I am off to the beach again.  I will be back 7/16.

 

The Market

         

    Technical

 

            Wednesday in the charts.

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/mideast-melee-spikes-oil-batters-bonds-big-tech-bitcoin-bullion

 

Summary:  Words ('ceasefire is over': Trump) and deeds (tit-for-tat attacks escalating) surrounding Iran spiked oil prices to one-month highs, smashing bond yields higher and stocks lower early (then big tech bounced, distracted from the chaos in momentum briefly). The dollar ripped and dipped, with gold mirroring the swing. Bitcoin followed big-tech lower (but not back up) as the market shrugged off hawkish confirmation in Fed Minutes and bonds bounced back to end only marginally higher in yield. Geopolitics is back baby... but so are the dip-buyers as stocks decoupled from the rise in oil and bond yields...

 

And the almost unprecedented gap between (high) crack spreads and crude means refiners have an incentive to buy crude and meet the product demand...

Rate-hike expectations rose back near post-Warsh highs today as a resurgence in crude oil prices raises the specter of reigniting inflation. But notably, despite the confirmation of a hawkish anti-inflation bias, rate-expectations barely moved following the Minutes..

 

 

            Wednesday in the technical stats.

            https://www.barchart.com/stocks/momentum

            https://www.barchart.com/stocks/market-performance

            https://www.barchart.com/stocks/sectors/rankings

            https://www.barchart.com/stocks/signals/new-recommendations

 

Note. The S&P made a second lower high and appears ready to challenge its 50 DMA.  However, it still needs to make a second lower low before we even think about a trend reversal.  That won’t happen until the S&P drops below ~7285. Plus, gold settled on the lower boundary of its short term uptrend.  Breaking below that level would clearly indicate a change in trend.

Thursday morning setup. Futures are higher (although off session highs), and oil erased overnight gains as the market moved past the latest Middle-East flare up which saw the US military strike 90 Iranian targets for a second day and Tehran retaliated against American allies in the Persian Gulf. And like during previous escalations, this time nobody believes it will last. As of 8:00am ET S&P 500 futures rose 0.2% and Nasdaq 100 contracts gained 0.6% as semiconductor stocks advanced in Asia, Europe and US premarket trading after SK Hynix drew strong demand for its offering of ADRs. Mag7 stocks are mixed, with META tumbling on a Reuters report the company has signed long-term contracts for memory, networking gear and flash storage, refuting the market's expectation that the company is starting to ease back on capex spending. The FTSE 100 lags and is down 0.8% as AstraZeneca shares slump 9% after its Wainua drug failed to prevent heart problems. . Cyclicals, ex-Energy, are rebounding led by Fins and Industrials. Momentum is poised for another strong day, this time with Beta. Brent traded near $79 a barrel after swinging between gains and losses. Bond yields are down 2bps to up 1bps as the curve twists steeper ahead of today’s 30Y auction; the 10Y yield trades at 4.59%, near a one-month high. Commodities are weaker with Ags and Energy selling off but there is a bid to metals led by Precious. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index is also little changed. The kiwi is the strongest of the G-10 currencies, rising 0.6% against the greenback after some hawkish remarks from RBNZ Governor Breman. Precious metals advance along with Bitcoin. Today’s macro data focus is on jobless data and existing home sales with the macro focus shifting to next week’s CPI / PPI, Retail Sales prints as earnings season kicks off. 

 

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

             

                          Weekly initial jobless claims totaled 215,000 versus forecasts of 218,000.

                         

                        International

 

The May German trade balance was +E19.1 billion versus estimates of +E14.8 billion.

 

June YoY Japanese machine tool orders were up 52.8% versus projections of up 37.4%.

 

 

                        Other

 

                          Compiling the regional Feds’ manufacturing and services indices.

                          https://bonddad.blogspot.com/2026/07/regional-fed-survey-confirm.html

           

            Iran

 

              Overnight news.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/theyre-scum-trump-says-us-iran-ceasefire-over-sending-oil-higher

 

            Monetary Policy

 

The minutes from the latest FOMC meeting were released yesterday and they reflected the hawkish tone of the meetings press release as well as Warsh presser narrative.

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/fomc-minutes-12

           

            Fiscal Policy

 

              The Bessent Doctrine.

              https://www.nytimes.com/2026/07/07/opinion/scott-bessent-trade-economy.html

 

In yesterday’s Morning Call, I noted a new senate bill providing for government investment in defense contractors.  Here is the history of the Biden’s administration’s investments in the energy industry.

https://www.realclearinvestigations.com/articles/2026/07/07/when_uncle_sam_turns_venture_capitalist_what_could_go_wrong_1192912.html?mc_cid=9d70e1892a

 

              And here is the current stats of current US funded defense programs.

              https://www.militarytimes.com/news/pentagon-congress/2026/07/06/pentagons-top-new-weapons-programs-are-12-years-behind-schedule-watchdog/

 

              More on the subject: why does the private sector need government investment

  when it already so adept at achieving success?

  https://allisonschrager.substack.com/p/ceding-defeat

 

            Inflation

 

              Consumer inflation expectations throw Fed a curve ball.

              https://wolfstreet.com/2026/07/07/consumer-inflation-expectations-throw-the-fed-another-curveball/

 

     Investing

 

            Duration is starting to matter more for stocks as yields rise.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/duration-starting-matter-more-stocks-yields-rise

 

Summary: The rotation in the stock market is starting to favor lower versus higher duration stocks as yields continue to rise. Change is afoot in the market. The seemingly irrepressible rise in semis stocks has foundered, with the shares of Micron, SanDisk, Nvidia, Broadcom et al down 15-30% from their recent highs. The new leaders are financials – insurance and banks – and pharma and healthcare firms.

 

            Reasons to be bullish for the rest of 2026.

            https://www.carsongroup.com/insights/blog/more-reasons-to-be-bullish-the-rest-of-2026/

 

            Update on valuations.

            https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2026/07/08/secular-bull-and-bear-market-trends-june-2026

                https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2026/07/08/buffett-valuation-indicator-june-2026

                https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2026/07/08/market-valuation-is-the-market-still-overvalued

 

                The risk in leveraged stock ETFs.

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2026-07-08/leveraged-stock-etfs-will-burn-retail-investors-who-is-next?accessToken=eyJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiIsInR5cCI6IkpXVCJ9.eyJzb3VyY2UiOiJTdWJzY3JpYmVyR2lmdGVkQXJ0aWNsZSIsImlhdCI6MTc4MzUzNDM3MiwiZXhwIjoxNzg0MTM5MTcyLCJhcnRpY2xlSWQiOiJUSFVQNEtLSVAzSjUwMCIsImJjb25uZWN0SWQiOiJCMzFCNTRDQTI3MTE0NjAxOUQxMURCN0IxRUM4NTE2MyJ9.ChQuVe0Gytiaxnhip_Gy3HRubxgBOhINgBt8nunfAIg

 

Here is what stops the bulls. (the author has a valid point; but his solution---lots of cash and a big short position---is a huge nondiversified bet on a single outcome.  In my opinion, he is making too big a bet on market/stock direction.  My position: sell half your tech stocks that have more than doubled, hold the cash and if you want to play the downside, buy a conservative position in the S&P short or the VIX)

https://talkmarkets.com/article/heres-what-finally-stops-the-bulls-1783533097

 

It is important to be deliberate when ‘doing nothing’.

https://behaviouralinvestment.com/2026/07/08/nothing-in-investing-is-doing-nothing/

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

 

 

What I am reading today

 

            Thursday morning humor.

            U.S. Back In World Cup After Trump Deports Belgian Team | Babylon Bee

           

 

 

Visit Investing for Survival’s website (http://investingforsurvival.com/home) to learn more about our Investment Strategy, Prices Disciplines and Subscriber Service.

 

 

 

The Morning Call---The AI investment landscape is changing

 

The Morning Call

 

7/8/26

 

The Market

         

    Technical

 

            Tuesday in the charts.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/tech-wrecks-returns-semis-slammed-after-samsung-sinks-bond-yields-black-gold-hormuz-horrors

 

Summary:  A triple-whammy of tanker attacks in the Strait of Hormuz (and Iranian sanction waivers revoked) and a priced-for-perfection Samsung (sold despite smashing earnings) triggered higher oil prices and bond yields (NYFRB inflation expectations higher too) and lower stock prices respectively today. The dollar jumped higher (GBP lower), slamming gold lower (with bitcoin giving up early gains). Stocks were the odd one out today (until the late headlines below hit), decoupling (higher) from oil & bond yields (higher). When the waiver headline hit, everything moved together again...

Geopolitical risk isn’t going away...

 

But, as Goldman's Rich Privorotsky notes, the bigger point, though, is the divergence between crude and products.

Brent trades like the market is well supplied, while diesel and gasoil cracks keep making new highs.

Refining capacity remains tight and every disruption tightens product markets more than crude.

At some point cheap crude gets pulled higher by expensive products.

As Privorotsky concludes, "I struggle to see oil breaking materially lower from here… although I’ve been early on that call before."

 

Rate-hike expectations lifted on the day after NYFRB inflation expectations hit a three year high and then oil's spike raised further inflation anxiety...

 

            Tuesday in the technical stats.

            https://www.barchart.com/stocks/momentum

            https://www.barchart.com/stocks/market-performance

            https://www.barchart.com/stocks/sectors/rankings

            https://www.barchart.com/stocks/signals/new-recommendations

 

            The character of the Market has changed noticeably.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/goldmans-pasquariello-warns-character-market-has-changed-noticeably

 

Summary: An extension of the bull market is justified by the durability of the US economy, superb earnings growth and unrelenting household sponsorship. However, set against that, tensions are growing within the market - in the form of a more complicated AI narrative and an accumulation of speculative leverage. Taken together, while the primary trend remains higher, I expect the path will be both wider and bumpier over the next several months. Therefore - and this hasn’t changed much in the past month - my recommendation is to stay in the saddle, but to simplify your portfolio to the highest conviction components, and to buy downside insurance when it intermittently goes on sale. 

 

 

Wednesday morning setup. Markets are on the backfoot this morning with equity futures and macro credit under pressure, bond yields spiking, the USD higher, and oil jumping after President Trump thrust geopolitical risks back into focus by declaring the ceasefire between the US and Iran to be over calling it “a waste of time” after the US launched strikes against Iran in response to attacks on ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz. As of 8:00am, S&P 500 futures slid 0.7% and Nasdaq futures slumped 1% dragged lower by memory and chip stocks after the latest kinetic volley.  The latter takes place in the context of mixed tech trade in Asia with the Hang Seng Tech Index up 5%, whilst the South Korean Kospi lost 5.4%. Pre-market semis and Mag7 are being sold as Energy and Staples are the two best sectors; everything else is flat to down. The drawdown in momentum and the broader AI infrastructure trade (~85% correlation between these two cohorts) remains heavily in focus, with the GS High Beta Momentum basket (GSPRHIMO) now surpassing -20% over the past 5 days. This morning, global price action is pointing towards “more of the same” with the primary Momentum tone-setters (Hynix -6% in Korea, SNDK -6%, MU -5%) lower across the board.  Brent crude advanced 5% to around $78 a barrel while WTI breached $75/bbl (+6%) before declining as the Energy complex leads commodities higher. Precious metals are getting hit with mixed bids to Ags and Base metals. Treasury yields are up around 2-3bps across the curve (10Y yield rising to 4.56%) with the market needing to digest a $39bln 10 year note auction ahead of the FOMC minutes. USD is higher.  Higher energy prices feed into inflation expectations and Fed minutes this afternoon take on added significance in the tighter-lipped Warsh era. Gold fell and the dollar wavered.

 

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

           

Weekly mortgage applications declined 2.2% while purchase applications were down 0.6%.

 

The July small business optimism index was reported at 45.5 versus consensus of 45.0.

           

                        International

 

 

                        Other

 

The latest Q2 nowcasts. (These estimates are being impacted by a large net exports number; so it is not as negative as it appears)

                          https://www.capitalspectator.com/q2-gdp-expectations-cool-but-some-economists-arent-worried/

 

                          A weak but improving economy.

                          https://bonddad.blogspot.com/2026/07/scenes-from-june-jobs-report-weak-but.html

 

                          US recession risk dashboard.

                          https://econbrowser.com/archives/2026/07/us-recession-risk-dashboard

 

                          A review of Q2 US auto sales.

  https://wolfstreet.com/2026/07/06/my-take-on-the-zero-sum-new-vehicle-market-in-the-us-decades-of-stagnation-decline-interrupted-by-steep-plunges/

 

            Iran

 

              Overnight news. (Finally, some cojones, I think.)

              https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/theyre-scum-trump-says-us-iran-ceasefire-over-sending-oil-higher

 

            Monetary Policy

 

              An argument for not raising rates.

              http://scottgrannis.blogspot.com/2026/07/jobs-growth-picking-up-bit.html

 

            Fiscal Policy

 

The great thing about tax cuts is not more money for taxpayers but less money for the government.

https://www.realclearmarkets.com/articles/2026/07/07/in_the_federal_tax_debate_the_free-market_side_is_being_played_1192241.html

 

Senate defense bill allows government investment in private companies.  (the defense department has never been able to pass an audit accounting for its own spending.  Now we are allowing it to buy into US companies?  Oh, yeah, that’s a winner.)

                  https://www.zerohedge.com/political/senate-defense-bill-would-establish-fund-government-buy-private-companies

 

            AI

 

              Overnight news.

 

South Korean stocks have entered a technical bear market as investors raise concerns about the long-term prospects of the AI chipmakers that have driven a world-beating rally. The Kospi index is down more than 20 per cent from its record high in June after slipping more than 5 per cent on Wednesday.

 

The AI rotation trade is gathering pace in Asia as investors pull money from chipmakers and hunt for cheaper ways to play the technology boom. Investors are rotating into one of Asia's most unloved markets, with Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. and Tencent Holdings Ltd. rising after the Kospi Index was pushed to a technical bear market.

 

Nvidia’s stock is the cheapest it’s been since before the AI boom, after losing roughly $1 trillion in market value in under two months.

 

The sell off in the Goldman High Beta Momentum (GSPRHIMO) has now surpassed 20% over 5 days, exceeding short term expectations for a summer slump in the factor. This magnitude of sell off at such velocity has not been seen since 2020 when the stay-at-home vs go outside narrative shifted meaningfully towards reopening. It is notable that the current drawdown does not have the same strength of catalyst. Fingers have pointed towards SK Hynix raising and META cloud business.

 

              New technology doesn’t replace labor; it creates new forms of it.

              https://lawliberty.org/the-lump-of-labor-fallacy-in-the-age-of-ai/?mc_cid=b37f2cf8a3

 

              Token unmaxxing.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/token-unmaxxing-ai-model-makers-slash-prices-goldmans-1-delta-desk-warns-very-rotational

 

Summary:  The Wall Street Journal reporting that across Silicon Valley, top artificial-intelligence companies such as OpenAI, Anthropic   and others desperate to win business are ramping up discounts. The WSJ goes on to note that the offers from growing AI-sales armies at companies such as OpenAI and Anthropic are so rich that some early-stage startup founders say they won’t need to raise money as soon as they expected, and others have been able to play AI companies off one another. Startups have received offers that in some cases amounted to more than $3 million in credits from multiple companies for cloud computing and tokens, the central units used to measure and charge for AI usage, founders say. That is the size of the median U.S. seed round, according to PitchBook.Semianalysis, an AI-infrastructure data and consulting firm, recently published research showing how heavily the companies are subsidizing power users.Subscribers to Anthropic’s Claude Max plan, which costs $200 a month, are able to burn tokens worth $8,000 in their usage-based plans administered through an application programming interface, or API, which allows them to integrate Anthropic’s technology into their products. Maximum use of OpenAI’s ChatGPT Pro 20x plan, which also costs $200 a month, can burn tokens worth $14,000. All of which come back to what Goldman Sachs one-delta desk head, Rich Privorotsky, has been warning about for months - that the growing capabilities of cheaper (mostly Chinese) models is raising serious doubts about the frontier-model-makers' massive CapEx projections (and with that the entire AI ecosystem stack).

 

     Investing

 

            How not to get fooled by randomness.

            https://www.safalniveshak.com/how-not-to-get-fooled-by-randomness-in-investing/

 

            Good vibes are masking a reset in the Market.

            https://giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/actions/redeem/97b66970-c2c3-48af-8724-f4515028fc9e

 

            S&P valuation based on trailing dividend.

            https://politicalcalculations.blogspot.com/2026/07/how-investors-maintained-order-in-s-500.html

 

            Your investment return expectations are twice reality.

            https://www.marketwatch.com/story/your-investing-expectations-are-more-than-double-the-reality-here-is-the-tough-truth-dea61820?st=m2JT8s

 

            The bond market’s measure of expected inflation and real growth.

            https://www.axios.com/2026/07/07/inflation-iran-bond-market-rates

           

            Private equity for everyone is getting out of hand.

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2026-07-07/private-equity-is-still-too-risky-for-mainstream-investors?accessToken=eyJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiIsInR5cCI6IkpXVCJ9.eyJzb3VyY2UiOiJTdWJzY3JpYmVyR2lmdGVkQXJ0aWNsZSIsImlhdCI6MTc4MzQ0NzM2NywiZXhwIjoxNzg0MDUyMTY3LCJhcnRpY2xlSWQiOiJUSFNUMk1SS1YyV0owMCIsImJjb25uZWN0SWQiOiJCMzFCNTRDQTI3MTE0NjAxOUQxMURCN0IxRUM4NTE2MyJ9.pXVhnIBh_NhKaj2R8n-AjtVVhCm3k-lNOr3o3LQmXMk

 

            China buys the most gold since 2023.

            https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-07-07/china-s-pboc-buys-most-gold-since-2023-as-bullion-swings?sref=loFkkPMQ

 

Summary: China’s central bank bought more gold in June, extending the longest buying streak since at least 2015 and underscoring a commitment to diversifying its reserves despite volatility in bullion prices. Bullion held by the People’s Bank of China rose by 480,000 troy ounces to 75.44 million ounces last month, according to data released on Tuesday. The purchase is the biggest since October 2023, and brings the buying streak to 20 months.

 

           

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