The Morning Call
10/27/26
The
Market
Technical
Monday in the
charts.
Monday in the
technical stats.
https://www.barchart.com/stocks/momentum
https://www.barchart.com/stocks/market-performance
https://www.barchart.com/stocks/sectors/rankings
https://www.barchart.com/stocks/signals/new-recommendations
Buy the dip or
brace for more.
Market performance
following the mid-terms.
https://www.riskhedge.com/the-jolt/they-mocked-me-on-live-tv-2
Gold’s next move?
Tuesday morning
setup: US futures are higher as hopes for a diplomatic end to the Iran war got
a fresh boost after Monday's
Mecca Pact talks in Tehran, with Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei calling
for pursuing the conditions set out by Iranian officials to end the war and an
Iranian ambassador floating a seven-day plan to reopen Hormuz, which more than
offset a Houthi missile attack on Saudi Arabia's Ras Tanura refinery; as a
result oil slid and Treasuries rallied, with the 10Y yield slipping to 4.97%
ahead of today's $70BN 5Y auction. As of 8:15am ET, S&P futures are 0.4%
higher while Nasdaq futures gain 0.7% and Dow futures rise 0.3%, having spent
most of the overnight session flat as the Anthropic IPO euphoria which sparked
Monday's tech-led rally (S&P +0.70%, Nasdaq +0.82%) faded just as the
bills for AI resume getting bigger: Meta upsized its equity raise to
$25BN in common stock (part of a package of up to $97.5BN) while Broadcom
arranged a $63BN deal to finance chips for Anthropic. In premarket trading,
Tesla leads the Mag 7 while Microsoft lags; memory names are the standout
(JPM's DRAM basket +2.1%), Broadcom gains 2.4% on a D.A. Davidson upgrade tied
to Anthropic, UPS rises 2% after raising guidance and Whirlpool slides 7.9%
after its third guidance cut of the year. The day's driver is Iran (again): oil,
which jumped in early European trading on the Ras Tanura reports, reversed
lower once the Khamenei headlines hit, with WTI down about 1% near session lows
after trading in a $100.60-102.82 range. Treasuries are 2-3bps richer in the
front end and belly, steepening the curve, while bunds and gilts outperform;
French OATs underperform, with the OAT-Bund spread back above 160bps after
French consumer confidence crashed to the lowest since 2013. The Bloomberg
Dollar Spot index halved its earlier 0.2% gain as oil dropped, though EUR/USD
still hit a two-week low around 1.1143. Gold is back below $4,000 (-0.5%),
silver drops 1.5% and copper is up 0.9%; bitcoin slipped under $80,000. US
economic data slate includes ADP weekly employment (8:15am), durable goods
(8:30am), FHFA and Case-Shiller house prices (9am), Conference Board consumer
confidence, Richmond Fed manufacturing and new home sales (10am) and Dallas Fed
services (10:30am). The Fed is in its pre-FOMC blackout, so there are no Fed
speakers; there are $54BN 52-week and $95BN 6-week bill sales at 11:30am and
the $70BN 5Y note auction at 1pm.
Fundamental
Headlines
The
Economy
US
September building
permits fell 0.4% versus forecasts of -0.2%.
September durable
goods orders rose 1.8% versus projections of +1.5%; ex transportation, they were
up 0.5% versus +0.6%.
The
October Dallas Fed manufacturing index came it at 13.4 versus consensus of 7.0.
International
Other
Iran
Iran signals flexibility (ya, right)
Monetary
Policy
Warsh tells traders to watch the data; but
they still watch the Fed.
Summary: TD Securities' Gennadiy Goldberg
recommended betting against a Federal Reserve interest-rate hike after a report
on US inflation was released, but the data came in hot and traders quickly
ramped up bets on a hike. The market move was later erased, with several market
cross-currents at play, including a stock selloff and increasing tensions in
France, as well as a stream of Fedspeak signaling a pause in October. Investors
are in a precarious position heading into the policy meeting, with odds of an
October move now standing at less than 15%, and traders acknowledging that the
inflation data might have spurred them to wager on a hike if not for the
Fedspeak.
Inflation
Four reasons to think inflation has peaked.
AI
Winners and losers if the AI buildout is
delayed.
The 2028 reality crisis.
https://hub.tslombard.com/the-perkini-report
The
debt window slams shut.
Little margin for error.
Investing
The most important
factors determining a stock’s price.
Individual stock performance
versus the indices.
https://www.carsongroup.com/insights/blog/is-the-index-hiding-something/
Investors should
temper their enthusiasm.
https://files.constantcontact.com/8b610944601/13951012-86e9-4517-99a6-afb76fd90052.pdf
The search for a
sure thing beyond cash and bonds.
Summary:
Rising interest rates are difficult for investors because when rates go up,
bonds that were bought at lower rates are instantly worth less. Investors are
seeking refuge in cash, often in the form of money-market mutual funds, and
ultra-short-term bond ETFs, which have attracted about $75 billion in October. Collateralized
loan obligations, which behave a bit like bonds, may have some upside right
now, with CLO ETFs exhibiting almost no volatility and very little
interest-rate risk.
The rate of change and the change in the rate
of change.
https://talkmarkets.com/article/weekly-market-pulse-where-the-puck-will-be
News on Stocks in Our Portfolios
What
I am reading today
The
road to serfdom runs through both parties.
The
Road to Serfdom Runs Through Both Parties
John Stuart Mills on liberty,
tyranny and the role of government.
https://economicaffairs.co.uk/p/john-stuart-mill-on-liberty-tyranny
Second order chaotic systems,
polling and the election.
https://bonddad.blogspot.com/2026/10/second-order-chaotic-systems-polling.html
Visit Investing
for Survival’s website (http://investingforsurvival.com/home)
to learn more about our Investment Strategy, Prices Disciplines and Subscriber
Service.
