The Morning Call
3/26/26
The
Market
Technical
Wednesday in the
charts.
Note: despite the positive
pin action, the S&P remained below its 200 DMA. Stay cautious.
Wednesday in the technical stats.
https://www.barchart.com/stocks/momentum
https://www.barchart.com/stocks/market-performance
https://www.barchart.com/stocks/sectors/rankings
https://www.barchart.com/stocks/signals/new-recommendations
Bond volatility screams stress.
https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/bond-vol-screams-stress-equities-arent-listening
Fundamental
Headlines
The
Economy
US
Weekly initial jobless claims totaled 210,000,
in line.
International
The April German consumer
confidence index was reported at -28.0 versus estimates of -26.5.
Other
Overnight
News
The Pentagon is
developing military options for a "final blow" in Iran that could
include the use of ground forces and a massive bombing campaign.
President Trump
has told associates in recent days that he wants to avoid a protracted war in
Iran and that he hopes to bring the conflict to an end in the coming weeks. The
president has privately informed advisers he thinks the conflict is in its
final stages, urging them to stick to the four-to-six-week timeline he has
outlined publicly, according to people familiar with the matter.
Israeli officials
say a US-Iran deal remains unlikely, but fear President Donald Trump could
still declare a temporary ceasefire as talks continue.
Trump
administration officials are examining what a potential spike in oil prices as
high as $200 a barrel would mean for the economy, according to people familiar
with the matter, a sign senior officials are studying the possible fallout from
extreme scenarios for the Iran war.
On the stage and
sidelines of a global energy conference in Houston, CEOs painted a much bleaker
picture: Financial markets aren’t accurately reflecting the gravity of the
crisis, the war is crippling the world’s fuel supplies, and the industry’s
Middle East operations are at risk, they said.
Iran
The (rumored) Iranian demands for a cease
fire.
https://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2026/03/for-what-its-worth-4.php
Monetary
Policy
$5
diesel fuel, inflation and Fed policy.
Rate cuts on ice as inflation expectations
surge.
https://www.capitalspectator.com/rate-cuts-on-ice-as-inflation-expectations-surge-at-the-short-end/
Fiscal
Policy
Defense spending and the 5% of GDP fallacy.
The government’s weakening data collection
system.
When the chickens come ome to roost.
Ever
Wonder Where $7 Trillion Goes? - by Quoth the Raven
Inflation
The coming CPI shock.
https://bonddad.blogspot.com/2026/03/updating-kiss-estimate-of-coming-shock.html
Recession
The rising risk of recession.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/rate-reversal-will-be-swift-when-sentiment-cracks
The
Dollar
The
global dollar plumbing system.
https://www.advisorperspectives.com/commentaries/2026/03/25/dollars-plumbing-conspiracy-vs-data
The
Financial System
Why the semiliquid private credit funds’ liquidity
problem was inevitable.
https://www.morningstar.com/funds/why-semiliquid-fund-liquidity-crunch-was-inevitable
Investing
Reacting to risk.
https://behaviouralinvestment.com/2026/03/24/one-risk-after-another/
The decoupling of
gold from the inflation indexed Treasury.
https://politicalcalculations.blogspot.com/2026/03/high-striker_01708440736.html
The question isn’t
whether inflation will go higher; the question is will the bond market ignore
it.
https://talkmarkets.com/article/the-name-is-bond-30-year-not-james-but-whats-the-message-1774458519
Hedge yourself.
https://www.ft.com/content/043a0d8d-bf9f-4348-b6b5-55303cbf3128
Defensives are expensive.
https://chartkidmatt.com/p/defensives-aren-t-cheap
News on Stocks in Our Portfolios
What
I am reading today
Thursday
morning humor.
8
Tips For Getting Through TSA Faster | Babylon Bee
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