The Morning Call--The war from Iran's perspective

 

The Morning Call

 

3/12/26

 

The Market

         

    Technical

 

            Wednesday in the charts.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/credit-crude-crush-bonds-stocks-right-tail-squeeze-risk-remains

 

            Wednesday in the technical stats.

            https://www.barchart.com/stocks/momentum           

            https://www.barchart.com/stocks/market-performance

            https://www.barchart.com/stocks/sectors/rankings

            https://www.barchart.com/stocks/signals/new-recommendations

 

            From Goldman’s desk.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/private-credit-ramps-executive-put-dominate-market-action

 

            Something starting to break.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/oil-volatility-exploding-and-something-starting-break

 

            A bubble may be bursting and it is not because of Iran.

                        https://www.marketwatch.com/story/this-uncanny-s-p-500-chart-suggests-a-bubble-is-bursting-and-not-just-because-of-iran-77d45514?st=tPJzne

 

            Mag seven meltdown or bull market reset?

            https://trendlabs.com/mag-seven-meltdown-or-bull-market-reset/

 

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

 

                          Weekly initial jobless claims totaled 213,000 versus consensus of 215,000.

 

The January trade balance was -$54.5 billion versus predictions of -$66.6 billion.

 

January housing starts were up 7.2% versus forecasts of down 2.4%; January building permits were down 5.3% versus -1.5%.

 

                        International

 

                        Other

 

                          Changes in immigration enforcement and median household income.

                          https://politicalcalculations.blogspot.com/2026/03/changes-in-immigration-enforcement-and.html

 

                          Update on the supply/demand in the housing market.

                          https://wolfstreet.com/2026/03/10/supply-of-single-family-homes-surges-to-highest-for-february-in-9-years-demand-stuck-in-the-deepfreeze/

 

                          A detailed look at yesterday's CPI number.

                          https://bonddad.blogspot.com/2026/03/february-cpi-likely-last-hurrah-for.html

 

            Iran

 

              Overnight News.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/two-more-tankers-hit-bringing-total-six-ships-oil-tops-100-after-trump-declares-we-won

 

Here is a summary of Iran’s and the opposition’s thinking about the war and its outcome.

https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2026/03/iran-war-iran-seeks-decolonization-of-gulf-region-iea-proposes-emergency-release-of-reserves-nuclear-strike-risk-assessment-iran-escalates-strikes.html

 

              LNG suppliers declare force majeure on contracts with Qatar.

              https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-03-11/shell-declares-force-majeure-on-lng-contracts-from-qatar?srnd=homepage-americas

 

The International Energy Agency agrees to release 400 million barrels of oil from reserves.

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/iea-proposes-largest-ever-oil-stockpile-release-there-just-one-big-problem

 

            Monetary Policy

 

              The case for an easier Fed.

              https://scottgrannis.blogspot.com/2026/03/jobs-and-war-fed-needs-to-ease.html

 

              Counterpoint.

  https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2026-03-11/us-fiscal-discipline-depends-on-an-independent-federal-reserve?srnd=homepage-americas&sref=loFkkPMQ

 

                          Lack of clarity plagues Fed policy.

              https://www.capitalspectator.com/the-war-may-end-soon-but-the-feds-battle-is-only-beginning/

 

            The Financial System

 

              JP Morgan restricts loans to private credit.

              https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-03-11/jpmorgan-marks-down-private-credit-portfolios-ft-reports?srnd=homepage-americas&sref=loFkkPMQ

 

                          Bad underwriting is the crisis in private credit.

  https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-03-11/pimco-blames-sloppy-underwriting-for-private-credit-reckoning?srnd=homepage-americas&sref=loFkkPMQ

 

 

                          Apollo plans to value its private securities fund monthly.

  https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-03-11/apollo-plans-to-value-private-credit-daily-in-answer-to-critics?srnd=homepage-americas&sref=loFkkPMQ

 

 

     Investing

 

            There is no ‘smart money’ or ‘dumb money’.

            https://www.wsj.com/finance/investing/smart-money-dumb-money-its-all-just-money-706cd1e3?st=YkxGqW

 

            Why private market funds are dangerous for retail investors.

            https://www.promarket.org/2026/03/09/why-private-market-funds-are-dangerous-for-retail-investors/

 

            Ed Yardini on the financial stocks.

            FINANCIALS: Black & Blue Owl

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

 

 

What I am reading today

 

           

 

 

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The Morning Call---another domino

 

The Morning Call

 

3/11/26

 

The Market

         

    Technical

 

            Tuesday in the charts.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/crude-chaos-software-slammed-bitcoin-bullion-bid

 

Note: the S&P tried to follow through the Monday rally, but (1) bounced down [unsuccessfully challenged] off its 100 DMA, (2) made a second lower low and (3) a third lower high. Not that encouraging and suggesting another attempt at challenging its 200 DMA may be in the offing.

 

Tuesday in the technical stats.

https://www.barchart.com/stocks/momentum

https://www.barchart.com/stocks/market-performance

https://www.barchart.com/stocks/sectors/rankings

https://www.barchart.com/stocks/signals/new-recommendations

 

            Calm market illusion.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/calm-market-illusion

 

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

 

Weekly mortgage applications were up 3.2% while purchase application grew 7.8%.

 

Month to date retail chain store sales were up 6.2% versus +7.0% in the prior week.

 

February existing home sales rose 1.7% versus forecasts of -0.8%.

                          https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2026/03/10/existing-home-sales-rebound-1-7-in-february-beat-expectations

 

                                                  February CPI was up 0.2%, in line; core CPI was up 0.3%, also in line.

 

                        International

 

                          February Japanese PPI came in down 0.1% versus projections of +0.1%.

 

                          February German CPI was up 0.2%, in line.

 

                        Other

 

                          The latest data suggests no job growth in 2025.

                          https://bonddad.blogspot.com/2026/03/the-gold-standard-qcew-for-last-q3.html

 

            Iran

 

              Overnight news.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/hegseth-warns-most-intense-day-operation-epic-fury-iea-plans-largest-ever-spr-dump

 

              Western power rally to support Gulf States.

              https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-03-10/western-powers-rally-to-defend-gulf-states-from-iranian-attacks?sref=loFkkPMQ

 

              Trump doesn’t understand his enemy.

              https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2026-03-10/iran-war-trump-doesn-t-know-his-enemy-that-gives-iran-an-edge?sref=loFkkPMQ

 

              No return to normal anytime soon.

              https://www.ft.com/content/b33b5ff1-7a92-4d0f-a4e7-dfa70d17e739

 

              An eye for an eye.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/irgc-says-iran-not-us-will-determine-wars-end-trump-threatens-strikes-20-times-harder

 

            Monetary Policy

 

              The Fed is not a repair shop.

              https://www.realclearmarkets.com/articles/2026/03/10/kevin_warsh_says_the_fed_is_not_a_repair_shop_he_must_draw_the_line_1169478.html

 

            Fiscal Policy

 

              If a debt crisis loomed, there would be no borrowing.

              https://www.realclearmarkets.com/articles/2026/03/10/if_a_debt_crisis_loomed_there_would_be_no_federal_borrowing_1169420.html

 

            Inflation

 

              The next inflation crisis.

              https://talkmarkets.com/article/the-iran-war-just-lit-the-fuse-on-americas-next-inflation-crisis-1773164723

 

              Food prices could be as big a shock to inflation as energy prices.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/food-shock-could-be-bad-bonds-energy-shock

 

            The Financial System

 

              Another domino.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/find-described-first-domino-private-credit-bank-run-hit-over-7-redemptions

 

     Investing

 

            Repeating history?

            https://alhambrapartners.com/weekly-market-pulse-repeating-history/?src=news

           

Markets under pressure from triple threat.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2026-03-10/iran-war-ai-disruption-private-credit-shock-markets-at-the-same-time?srnd=homepage-americas&sref=loFkkPMQ

 

            Busting the myth of Treasuries as a safe haven.

            https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2026-03-10/are-us-treasuries-a-haven-for-investors-not-always?srnd=homepage-americas&sref=loFkkPMQ

 

            The Treasury market in not ready for an energy shock.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/treasury-market-not-ready-energy-shock

 

            The new Market structure.

            https://talkmarkets.com/article/24-hours-later-what-yesterdays-vix-spike-actually-meant-1773162728

 

            Why it is so hard to predict markets.

            https://behaviouralinvestment.com/2026/03/10/why-is-it-so-hard-to-predict-financial-markets/

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

 

What I am reading today

 

           

 

 

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The Morning Call---Fading the rally

 

The Morning Call

 

3/10/26

 

The Market

         

    Technical

 

            Monday in the charts.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/it-over-everything-reverses-unch-after-opening-end-world-panic-overnight

 

                Monday in the technical stats.

            https://www.barchart.com/stocks/momentum

            https://www.barchart.com/stocks/market-performance

            https://www.barchart.com/stocks/sectors/rankings

            https://www.barchart.com/stocks/signals/new-recommendations

 

            Another bear market signal.

            https://talkmarkets.com/article/this-one-signal-has-predicted-every-bear-market-and-it-just-triggered-1773077618

           

            The value of bad news.

            https://chartkidmatt.com/p/the-value-of-bad-news

 

            JP Morgan desk turns tactically bearish.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/jpmorgan-desk-turns-tactically-bearish-sees-sp-dropping-6270

 

            Goldman fading the rally.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/id-be-fading-rally-top-goldman-trader-warns-larger-issues-remain-iran

 

            More pain ahead.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/more-pain-ahead-ctas-sellers-every-scenario-lack-liquidation-flush-keeps-biggest-traders

 

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

 

The weekly ADP employment change totaled 15,500 versus 12,750 in the prior week.

https://www.zerohedge.com/personal-finance/adp-signals-best-job-gains-almost-4-months-bls-payrolls-plunged

 

The February small business optimism index came in at 98.8 versus estimates of 99.7.

 

                        International

 

Q4 Japanese GDP growth was -2.5% versus predictions of +0.8%; the Q4 YoY average cash earnings were up 3.0% versus +2.5%; Q4 private consumption was up 0.3% versus +0.1%; January household spending fell 2.5% versus +0.8%; January YoY average cash earnings rose 3.0% versus +2.5%; February YoY machine tool orders were up 24.2% versus +25.3%.

 

The January German trade balance weas +E21.2 billion versus consensus of +E15.2 billion.

 

The January/February Chinese trade balance was $213.6 billion versus expectations of $179.6 billion.

 

                        Other

 

                          New business formation is exploding.

                          https://www.apolloacademy.com/new-business-formation-exploding-higher/

 

            Iran

 

Trump says Iran war ahead of schedule. I guess he didn’t read the part about the new leader.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/iran-says-no-room-talks-us-seeks-partition-country-take-oil-new-hardline-ayatollah

 

                          Nor this.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/irgc-says-iran-not-us-will-determine-wars-end-trump-threatens-strikes-20-times-harder

 

                           All the jawboning may just be propaganda. This isn’t propaganda.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/iran-hails-deadly-cluster-bomb-central-israel-first-wave-under-new-ayatollah

 

              The Iran war adds a new level of supply chain stress.

              https://www.axios.com/2026/03/05/iran-war-trump-gas-prices

 

              Gigantic error or part of the plan?

              https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/oil-vey

 

            Monetary Policy

 

              Shrinking the Fed’s balance sheet does not curb inflation.

              https://theopinionpages.com/2026/03/shrinking-the-feds-balance-sheet-wont-curb-inflation-and-could-expand-the-feds-reach/

 

              The Fed isn’t independent. It never was. And it doesn’t matter.

              https://www.forbes.com/sites/johntamny/2026/03/08/the-federal-reserve-is-not-independent-and-never-was/

 

              Th Fed has a big problem on its hands.

              https://www.carsongroup.com/insights/blog/the-fed-has-a-big-problem-on-their-hands/

 

              The real threat is artificial credit, not artificial intelligence.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/real-threat-artificial-credit-not-artificial-intelligence

 

            Inflation

 

              The increasing odds of inflation/stagflation.

              https://www.capitalspectator.com/tehran-defies-us-as-conflict-escalates-and-markets-reel/

 

            Recession

 

              How $4/gallon gasoline takes the economy into recession.

              https://talkmarkets.com/article/how-4gallon-gas-could-take-the-economy-from-a-nearly-complete-stall-into-outright-recession-1773080763

 

            AI

 

              AI and creative destruction.

              https://www.advisorperspectives.com/commentaries/2026/03/09/ai-creative-destruction

 

              The societal implications of AI are not clear.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/ai/humanity-crossed-threshold-and-most-us-scrolled-past-it

           

            The Financial System

 

               Private credit funds are in a brutal position.

  https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2026-03-08/blackrock-blackstone-confront-withdrawals-as-private-credit-redemptions-surge?srnd=homepage-americas&sref=loFkkPMQ

 

 

     Investing

 

            Stagflation trade sweeps Market.

            https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-03-09/stagflation-trades-sweep-markets-as-trump-signals-widening-war?sref=loFkkPMQ

 

            Investors are not ready for a true shock.

            https://www.ft.com/content/d1f70afe-61f9-4993-9413-00463a60fe61

 

            Software is extremely cheap.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/software-extremely-cheap-another-squeeze-coming

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

 

 

What I am reading today

 

           

 

 

Visit Investing for Survival’s website (http://investingforsurvival.com/home) to learn more about our Investment Strategy, Prices Disciplines and Subscriber Service.