The Morning Call
8/6/26
The
Market
Technical
Wednesday in the
charts.
Wednesday in the
technical stats.
https://www.barchart.com/stocks/momentum
https://www.barchart.com/stocks/market-performance
https://www.barchart.com/stocks/sectors/rankings
https://www.barchart.com/stocks/signals/new-recommendations
What seven Market
indicators are telling investors.
https://www.morningstar.com/markets/what-7-key-market-indicators-are-telling-investors-right-now
Yesterday, I linked
to five articles outlining the current technical set up in very glowing
terms. Here is the counter argument.
Gold breaks above
resistance (the Aggressive Growth Portfolio bought a one half position in GDX).
Thursday morning
setup: US futures are mixed with S&P futures modestly higher offset by a
slide in tech: as of 8:00am ET, S&P futures are up 0.1% while Nasdaq
futures drop 0.5%, hit by a plunge in Sandisk (down 9% in pre-market), and
rival Western Digital which tumbled 15%, after both companies reported
earnings. AppLovin also slumped 16% after missing revenue estimates while
DataDog tumbled as much as 18% after guidance wasn't strong enough, and pushed
Nasdaq to session lows. Mag 7 stocks are mixed (AAPL +1.0% and GOOGL +0.7% are
among the outperformers). Asian stocks declined, led by losses in
heavyweight chipmakers following earnings reports from US peers that renewed
concerns over the stretched rally in memory-related shares. European shares
were more resilient and advanced for a 4th day on hopes of an Iran deal (that
was supposed to happen two days ago) as strong earnings boosted sentiment, with
WPP Plc leading gains in the media sector. Bond yields are 1-2bp higher.
Commodity prices were mostly higher: base metals are all higher this morning;
gold +0.6%, while silver -0.4%. Overnight, not many incremental updates on
US/Iran, with investors waiting for the details of the Iran/Oman deal around
the Strait of Hormuz.
Fundamental
Headlines
The
Economy
US
Weekly jobless claims totaled 199,000 versus consensus
202,000.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/initial-jobless-claims-remain-near-57-year-lows
Q2
nonfarm productivity rose 1.4% versus projections of +0.6%; unit labor costs were
up 1.3% versus +2.1%.
The July services
PMI was 54.6 versus estimates of 53.5; the July composite PMI was 54.5 versus
53.5.
The July ISM
services index was 54.1 versus predictions of 54.5.
https://bonddad.blogspot.com/2026/08/the-economically-weighted-ism-indexes.html
International
June
German factory orders were up 3.1% versus forecasts of +0.3%.
June EU retail
sales declined 0.3% versus expectations of +0.1%.
The
July German construction PMI was 42.1 versus consensus of 45.0; the July EU
construction PMI was 44.3 versus 43.6; the July UK
construction PMI was 44.7 versus 40.0.
Other
The sentiment indicators
are not good (but those with skin in the game [the Market] apparently think
otherwise).
https://mrzepczynski.blogspot.com/2026/08/consumer-sentiment-not-supporting.html
El Nino raises risk of weather shocks.
Summary: The El Niño on track to become the most powerful of the
past 76 years is strengthening rapidly, posing a major threat to fragile
economies already roiled by conflict in the Middle East. For emerging markets,
and especially for nations in Latin America, Africa and Asia, El Niño’s intense heat and erratic rains will likely
compound months of higher oil import costs and strained supply chains warped by
the war in Iran. In countries including India and Colombia, El Niño events have
repeatedly amped up pressure on energy systems and food commodities that help feed billions globally.
Iran
Another edition of the non-Trump version of
the war.
Iran and Oman agree to Hormuz deal.
Fiscal
Policy
A win for the taxpayers.
A loss for America.
AI
The canary in the AI coal mine (another
article by the same title).
Investing
Too much innovation
exploits investor behavior weaknesses.
More on
valuations.
https://politicalcalculations.blogspot.com/2026/08/s-500-sees-ai-bubble-deflate-as-index.html
Praise for the
momentum trade.
Investors can’t
stop believing.
https://www.axios.com/2026/08/05/ai-stocks-sp-500-high
News on Stocks in Our Portfolios
What
I am reading today
Visit Investing
for Survival’s website (http://investingforsurvival.com/home)
to learn more about our Investment Strategy, Prices Disciplines and Subscriber
Service.