The Averages (27976, 3380) recovered Tuesday’s losses yesterday, though the negative factors that I have been listing over the last week are still operative: (1) both of the indices made two gap up opens last week that need to be filled, (2) the VIX continues to reflect investor concern and (3) breadth remains in overbought territory. So, some downside seems probable although it may not occur until the Averages (or, at least, the S&P) challenge their all-time highs (29568/3393). Nonetheless, I am sticking with my assumption that the Market’s bias remains to the upside long term.
Gold and the long bond were down again though only fractionally. GLD’s chart remains strong plus it has that huge gap down open to close. On the other hand, TLT ended right on its 100 DMA---the first sign of technical weakness. The pin action of these two indicators is likely being impacted by their dramatically overbought condition. The dollar was also down but not enough to close last week’s big gap up open.
Gold---the unloved hedge.
The case against owning gold.
Mohamed El Erian on the dollar (weakness).
Wednesday in the charts.
Weekly jobless claims fell 19% versus expectations of a 6% decline.
July import prices rose 0.7% versus forecasts of up 0.6%; export prices were up 0.8% versus 0.4%.
The July budget deficit was $63 billion versus estimates of $193 billion.
July Japanese PPI was +0.6% versus consensus of +0.3%.
July German CPI was -0.5%, in line.
Teetering on the precipice.
How strong will the Q3 economic rebound be?
A sign that the recovery could be stalling.
The coronavirus wave in sunbelt states crests and begins to recede.
Has China’s central bank launched its own QE?
Chinese state run banks complying with US Hong Kong sanctions.
Bottom line. Soros: ‘we are caught in a bubble fueled by Fed liquidity’.
Interview with Eugene Fama, developer of the Efficient Market Theory.
News on Stocks in Our Portfolios
UPS declares $1.01/share quarterly dividend, in line with previous.
What I am reading today
The predator that makes great white sharks flee.
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