Friday, May 24, 2024

The Morning Call---The cost of Trump's tariffs

 

The Morning Call

 

5/24/24

 

The Market

         

    Technical

 

            Thursday in the charts.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/nvda-tops-25-trillion-traders-sell-everything-else-good-news

 

            Chasing the Market is a late trade.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/3-charts-we-are-watching-life-after-nvda-earnings

 

            Market trends continue to lean bullish.

            https://www.capitalspectator.com/market-trends-continue-to-lean-into-a-bullish-signal/

 

            Rising interest from fund managers driving metal prices higher.

            https://www.ft.com/content/65f473b7-1f0d-4570-bb6a-05ab9e5fed6c

 

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

 

April durable goods orders were up 0.7% versus predictions of down 0.8%; ex transportation, they were up 0.4% versus +0.1%.

 

April new home sales fell 4.7% versus consensus of -4.4%; building permits were down 3.0%, in line.

https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2024/05/new-home-sales-decrease-to-634000.html

 

The May flash manufacturing PMI was 50.9 versus projections of 50.0; the May flash services PMI was 54.8 versus 51.3; the May flash composite PMI was 54.4 versus 51.1.

 

The May Kansas City Fed manufacturing index came in at -1 versus estimates of -8.

 

                        International

 

                          Q1 German GDP grew 0.2%, in line.

 

                          April Japanese CPI was +0.2% versus expectations of 0.0%.

 

April UK retail sales fell 2.3% versus forecasts of -0.4%; ex fuel, they were down 2.0% versus -0.6%; May consumer confidence was -17 versus -18.

 

May EU consumer confidence was -14.3 versus predictions of -14.2.

 

                        Other

 

            The Fed

 

              Business inflation remained unchanged in May.

              https://www.capitalspectator.com/market-trends-continue-to-lean-into-a-bullish-signal/

 

              What a Trump election could mean for the Fed.

              https://www.nytimes.com/2024/05/23/business/economy/trump-federal-reserve.html

 

              The source of financial instability.

              https://www.econlib.org/fear-of-financial-instability/

 

            Fiscal Policy

 

              Creating jobs that destroy wealth.

              https://www.aier.org/article/creating-so-many-jobs-that-destroy-wealth/

 

            Inflation

 

              How far can goods prices drop?

  https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-05-23/fed-s-inflation-debate-shifts-to-how-much-goods-prices-can-drop?srnd=homepage-americas&sref=loFkkPMQ

 

 

            Recession

 

              Another ‘no recession’ indicator.

              https://wolfstreet.com/2024/05/23/remember-headlines-2-weeks-ago-labor-market-suddenly-weakens-as-unemployment-claims-spike-just-got-unwound/

 

              Soft data keeps improving.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/sp-global-says-us-business-activity-its-strongest-two-years

 

The risk of recession may not be zero, but is predicting it two years from now of any investment benefit?

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/risk-recession-isnt-zero

 

            Tariffs

 

              The cost of Trump’s tariffs.

              https://reason.com/2024/05/22/trumps-proposed-tariffs-would-cost-families-1700-annually/

 

              How effective have tariffs been in the past?

  https://thedispatch.com/newsletter/capitolism/on-bidens-new-china-tariffs-history-provides-good-reasons-for-almost-everyone-to-worry/?utm_source=ActiveCampaign&utm_medium=email&utm_content=On%20Biden%20s%20New%20China%20Tariffs%2C%20History%20Provides%20Good%20Reasons%20for%20Almost%20Everyone%20to%20Worry&utm_campaign=Capitolism_Everyone_On%20Biden%20s%20New%20China%20Tariffs%2C%20History%20Provides%20Good%20Reasons%20for%20Almost%20Everyone%20to%20Worry

 

 

            Geopolitics

 

              Political shellshocks.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/political-shellshocks-loom-markets

 

            The coronavirus

 

              The great pandemic walkback (I ignored the conspiracy portion of this article).

              https://www.zerohedge.com/covid-19/great-pandemic-walkback

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

 

What I am reading today

 

            Combat in the Bronze Age.

            These modern soldiers put Bronze Age armor to the test–how did it hold up? (nationalgeographic.com)           

 

 

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Thursday, May 23, 2024

The Morning Call---What is Buffett's cash hoarding telling us ?

 

The Morning Call

 

5/23/24

 

 

 

The Market

         

    Technical

 

            Wednesday in the charts.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/hawkish-fed-minutes-hammer-stocks-bonds-gold-oil

 

            The shorts are evaporating.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/evaporated-shorts

 

            Five current takeaways.

            https://allstarcharts.com/may-mid-month-conference-call-5-key-takeaways/

 

            A potential problem for the bulls this summer.

            https://stockcharts.com/articles/tradingplaces/2024/05/one-potentially-big-problem-is-253.html

 

            Junk bonds join the rally.

            https://www.wsj.com/finance/investing/risky-bonds-join-the-everything-rally-3ca8b318?st=v893kpkz9vaiqrl&reflink=desktopwebshare_permalink

 

            Is the dollar going lower?

            https://allstarcharts.com/dollar-down-the-10-year-says-yes/

 

            And what does that mean for inflation?

            https://alhambrapartners.com/2024/05/20/the-good-news-on-inflation/

 

 

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

 

                          Weekly initial jobless claims totaled 215,000 versus forecasts of 220,000.

                          https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/us-initial-jobless-claims-refuse-budge-near-record-lows

 

The April Chicago national activity index came in at -.23 versus expectations of +.16.

 

                          April existing home sales fell 1.9% versus consensus of +0.5%.

                          https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2024/05/22/existing-home-sales-fall-1-9-in-april

 

                        International

 

The May Japanese flash manufacturing PMI was 50.5 versus predictions of 49.7; the flash services PMI was 53.6 versus 53.8; the flash composite PMI was 52.4 versus 52.2; the May German flash manufacturing PMI was 45.4 versus 43.1; the flash services PMI was 53.9 versus 53.5; the flash composite PMI was 52.2 versus 51.0; the May EU flash manufacturing PMI was 47.4 versus 46.2; the flash services PMI was 53.3 versus 53.5; the flash composite PMI was 52.3 versus 52.0; the May UK flash manufacturing PMI was 51.3 versus 49.5; the flash services PMI was 52.9 versus 54.7; the flash composite PMI was 52.8 versus 54.0.

 

                        Other

 

                          Architecture billings decline in April.

                          https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2024/05/aia-architecture-billings-decline-in.html

 

            The Fed

 

The just released minutes from the last FOMC meeting were more bearish than expected (or Powell’s subsequent comments). More of the Fed’s ‘on the one hand, on the other hand’ chickens**t narrative.

https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2024/05/fomc-minutes-recent-increases-in.html

 

            Inflation

 

              Why are auto insurance rates rising so much?

    https://www.city-journal.org/article/how-government-is-driving-auto-insurance-rates-higher?utm_source=mailchimp&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=cjdaily

 

 

            Recession

 

               Update on Q2 nowcast.

               https://www.capitalspectator.com/us-economy-still-on-track-for-modest-pickup-in-growth-for-q2/

 

               New vehicle supplies turn to glut.

              https://wolfstreet.com/2024/05/21/new-vehicle-supply-turns-to-glut-for-many-brands-automakers-roll-out-incentives-but-not-nearly-enough/

 

              Cracks in the consumer armor.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/personal-finance/cracks-armour-resilient-consumer

 

            Tariffs

 

              The motivation for tariffs.

              https://www.aier.org/article/bootlegger-in-a-baptists-mask/

 

              Protectionists cheap tricks.

              https://cafehayek.com/2024/05/protectionists-cheap-tricks.html

 

    Bottom line

 

            S&P dividend forecast.

            https://politicalcalculations.blogspot.com/2024/05/spring-2024-snapshot-of-future-for-s.html

 

            What is Buffett’s cash hoard telling us?

            https://www.advisorperspectives.com/commentaries/2024/05/22/buffetts-cash-hoard-market-warning-lance-roberts

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

McDonald's (NYSE:MCD) declares $1.67/share quarterly dividend, in line with previous.

 

 

What I am reading today

 

           

 

 

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Wednesday, May 22, 2024

The Morning Call---Are the secular trends changing?

 

The Morning Call

 

5/22/24

 

The Market

         

    Technical

 

            Tuesday in the charts.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/stocks-flat-fearless-vol-sellers-continue-push-ahead-nvdafomc-mins

 

            No time to be bearish.

            https://allstarcharts.com/permabears-hate-nashville/

 

            The Market performance following periods of extreme volatility.

            https://www.bespokepremium.com/interactive/posts/think-big-blog/extreme-nasdaq-extremes

 

            The Market performance in an election year.

            https://ofdollarsanddata.com/how-does-the-stock-market-perform-in-an-election-year/

 

            Margin debt down 1.1% in April.

            https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2024/05/21/margin-debt-down-april-2024

 

            The dollar rally falters.

            https://www.ft.com/content/27a1864b-53e8-4c8c-afdc-b7763ed42363

 

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

 

Weekly mortgage applications were up 1.9% while purchase applications were down 1.0%.

 

                          Month to date retail chain store sales grew slower than in the prior week.

 

                        International

 

March Japanese machine orders were up 2.9% versus estimates of -2.2%; the April trade balance was -Y462.4 billion versus -Y339.5 billion.

 

April UK CPI was +0.3% versus predictions of +0.2%; core CPI was +0.9% versus +0.7%.

 

                        Other

 

                          YoY LA port traffic up in April.

                          https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2024/05/la-port-traffic-increased-year-over.html

 

            Fiscal Policy

 

              Addressing the debt bomb.

              https://fee.org/articles/is-it-time-to-hold-a-convention-of-the-states-to-address-the-debt-bomb/

 

              Global bankers suddenly worried about US national debt.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/global-bankers-are-suddenly-worried-about-soaring-us-national-debt

 

            Recession

 

              Picking a peak in economic activity.

              https://www.capitalspectator.com/is-the-yield-curve-still-relevant-an-economist-clarifies/

 

              A detailed look at household credit.

              https://assets.realclear.com/files/2024/05/2428_ny_fed_-_hh_debt_q1_2024.pdf

 

            Geopolitics

 

              The wrath of Khan.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/wrath-khan-or-why-some-point-lack-global-rule-law-will-matter-mightily

 

     Bottom line.

 

            Are the secular trends changing? (must read)

            https://alhambrapartners.com/2024/05/19/weekly-market-pulse-ch-ch-changes/?src=news

 

            What an aging population means for investing.

            https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-05-21/what-a-world-growing-older-fast-means-for-investing?srnd=homepage-americas&sref=loFkkPMQ

 

            Expected future S&P earnings.

            https://politicalcalculations.blogspot.com/2024/05/spring-2024-snapshot-of-expected-future.html

 

            Benchmarking your portfolio may have more risk than you think.

            Benchmarking Your Portfolio May Have More Risk Than You Think - RIA (realinvestmentadvice.com)

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

Williams-Sonoma press release (NYSE:WSM): Q1 GAAP EPS of $4.07 beats by $1.37.

Revenue of $1.66B (-5.7% Y/Y) beats by $10M.

 

What I am reading today

 

           

 

 

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