Tuesday, July 28, 2026

The Morning Call---the AI bubble's canary

 

The Morning Call

 

7/28/26

 

The Market

         

    Technical

 

            Monday in the charts.

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/stocks-sink-despite-hormuz-hopes-china-sparks-chipmaker-chunder-busy-week?gift=eyJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiIsInR5cCI6IkpXVCJ9.eyJuaWQiOiIxMTE5NDUwIiwic2VuZGVyVWlkIjoiUUhnc3BaZVVFS2E3RHhXM216eFlKbjhaWEFoMiIsImlhdCI6MTc4NTE4NDY1NSwiZXhwIjoxNzg3Nzc2NjU1LCJhdWQiOiJ6aC1naWZ0In0.8hYkl7cxk2OrjnViSJy1xdchqO2DBsUXpxOKccHXXQQ

 

 

            Monday in the technical stats.

            https://www.barchart.com/stocks/momentum

            https://www.barchart.com/stocks/market-performance

            https://www.barchart.com/stocks/sectors/rankings

            https://www.barchart.com/stocks/signals/new-recommendations

 

            Still a long way to go in AI correction.

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/btig-warns-still-long-way-go-ai-correction?gift=eyJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiIsInR5cCI6IkpXVCJ9.eyJuaWQiOiIxMTE5NDM2Iiwic2VuZGVyVWlkIjoiUUhnc3BaZVVFS2E3RHhXM216eFlKbjhaWEFoMiIsImlhdCI6MTc4NTE4MTQyMSwiZXhwIjoxNzg3NzczNDIxLCJhdWQiOiJ6aC1naWZ0In0.TsohYm_x11APk2Db17wbfrv3J8ZQhcBClCFtc7YvNFw

 

                        Goldman desk points to level equities will struggle.

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/amid-exhausting-confusing-iran-headlines-goldman-partner-says-heres-rates-level-where?gift=eyJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiIsInR5cCI6IkpXVCJ9.eyJuaWQiOiIxMTE5NDQyIiwic2VuZGVyVWlkIjoiUUhnc3BaZVVFS2E3RHhXM216eFlKbjhaWEFoMiIsImlhdCI6MTc4NTE4MjMzMCwiZXhwIjoxNzg3Nzc0MzMwLCJhdWQiOiJ6aC1naWZ0In0.XDK_stWZo0aJKihsusOKdI9lniuHmXplFPi7dG2SqEQ

 

 

            Gold isn’t returning….confidence is leaving.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/precious-metals/gold-isnt-returning-confidence-leaving

 

Tuesday morning setup: Futures extend Monday's losses as the Tech tape continues to unravel; global Semis were hit yesterday and again overnight (despite the best attempts of Goldman and JPM to force retail to buy the falling knives) with Asian stocks and especially Korea (-10%) bearing the brunt with fears of Chinese competition accelerating the sell-off and then spilling back over into the US. As of 7:00am ET, S&P futures are down 0.2% with tech slammed pushing the Nasdaq 0.9% lower and leaving the index set for a five-day run of losses for only the second time this year. Semis are again lower pre-market led by weakness in Nvidia, Intel and Micron, while Mag7 names are mostly bid and outperforming. While Defensives are leading Cyclicals, there are bids to Discretionary and Financials as both sectors look to outperform. As JPM writes in its Market Intel post this morning (available to pro subs), the market is swept in a risk-off tone (where all the news continues to be sold) that is continuing both the broadening in the US and a rotation ex-US where EU may continue to outperform as investors tilt towards Value; the $64 trillion question remains when do Semis / AI find a bottom. There is some good news as expectations (because they certainly are not taking place) of US, Iran negotiations are reducing commodity prices. As such yields are down 3bps, the USD is flat, and commodities are weaker led by Energy and Precious with Base and Softs the outperformers. Today’s macro data focus is on the weekly ADP print, Housing price indices, Consumer Confidence, Import / Export data, Inventories, and regional Fed activity indicators. n premarket trading, chip producers and other AI-related firms are extending their selloff as worries about China’s progress in advanced chipmaking weighs down sentiment. This is also exasperating concerns over the sustainability of the AI spending boom that has propelled the sector in recent years.

 

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

 

The July Dallas Fed manufacturing index came in at 1.3 versus estimates of -1.0.

                       

                        International

 

 

                        Other

 

                          Shipping upheaval suggests oil price decline won’t last.

  https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2026-07-27/shipping-upheaval-suggests-oil-selloff-won-t-last?accessToken=eyJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiIsInR5cCI6IkpXVCJ9.eyJzb3VyY2UiOiJTdWJzY3JpYmVyR2lmdGVkQXJ0aWNsZSIsImlhdCI6MTc4NTE3NjM4NSwiZXhwIjoxNzg1NzgxMTg1LCJhcnRpY2xlSWQiOiJUSVUwR09LSVVQU0IwMCIsImJjb25uZWN0SWQiOiJCMzFCNTRDQTI3MTE0NjAxOUQxMURCN0IxRUM4NTE2MyJ9.ukOPA7MDz3Y2KTE6wXg2vVnCx6nssCiBdebjPNL0TnQ

 

                         The latest Q2 GDP nowcast.

                          https://www.capitalspectator.com/resilient-q2-gdp-nowcast-masks-for-the-rest-of-the-year/

 

                          The distorting impact of inflation on durable goods orders.

                          https://bonddad.blogspot.com/2026/07/two-cheers-for-increasing-manufacturers.html

 

            Monetary Policy

 

How important is the Fed?  (I agree with most of this article.  My one point of disagreement is that ‘money supply is a function of production’.  My counter is ask Germany and Argentina.)

https://www.forbes.com/sites/johntamny/2026/07/26/is-kevin-warshs-silence-the-beginning-of-the-end-for-the-fed/

 

            Fiscal Policy

 

              State capitalism is back in fashion.

  https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2026-07-27/us-economy-state-capitalism-is-back-in-fashion-that-s-not-good?srnd=homepage-americas&sref=loFkkPMQ

 

Summary: Politicians worldwide are showing renewed enthusiasm for public ownership of private companies, with methods ranging from modest government stakes to outright nationalization.

History shows that public ownership is almost always a mistake, and market-friendly, arms-length regulation is a more reliable way of achieving stated goals.

Public ownership can lead to capture, where producers' interests are prioritized over those of customers and the wider public, resulting in inefficiency and underperformance.

 

            AI

 

              Should you be worried?

              https://www.riskhedge.com/outplacement/are-you-worried

 

              The AI capex depreciation risk is the catch to record earnings.

              https://www.advisorperspectives.com/commentaries/2026/07/27/ai-capex-depreciation-risk-catch-record-earnings

 

              AI’s moment of truth.

  https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/ai-trades-moment-truth?gift=eyJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiIsInR5cCI6IkpXVCJ9.eyJuaWQiOiIxMTE5NDY1Iiwic2VuZGVyVWlkIjoiUUhnc3BaZVVFS2E3RHhXM216eFlKbjhaWEFoMiIsImlhdCI6MTc4NTE4MDk4MSwiZXhwIjoxNzg3NzcyOTgxLCJhdWQiOiJ6aC1naWZ0In0.Iaqh-khaIovLjG6jX2e1T6ZMRgU_8GfEE2Omcs0YoYQ

 

              The mess is your moat.

              https://www.apollo.com/wealth/insights-news/insights/daily-spark/the-mess-is-your-moat

 

              The AI bubble’s canary.

  https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/ai-bubbles-canary-just-died?gift=eyJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiIsInR5cCI6IkpXVCJ9.eyJuaWQiOiIxMTE5NTE5Iiwic2VuZGVyVWlkIjoiUUhnc3BaZVVFS2E3RHhXM216eFlKbjhaWEFoMiIsImlhdCI6MTc4NTI0MzQ4NiwiZXhwIjoxNzg3ODM1NDg2LCJhdWQiOiJ6aC1naWZ0In0.8syqRdJOQJLIf7yeFhEQRtFQpUFyyS86QehY7nQBBNI

 

 

            Tariffs

 

              Saying the quiet part out loud.

              https://www.realclearmarkets.com/blog/2026/07/24/saying_the_quiet_part_out_loud_1196528.html

 

              What do the latest tariffs mean for the US economy.

                          https://www.wsj.com/economy/trade/what-trumps-latest-tariffs-mean-for-the-american-economy-0641c57b?st=eKwUMZ&reflink=desktopwebshare_permalink

           

     Investing

 

              Bond market gets edgier about inflation and the massive (growing) federal debt.

              https://wolfstreet.com/2026/07/25/long-term-treasury-yields-jump-as-bloodied-bond-market-gets-edgier-about-inflation-the-massive-new-debt/

 

              Confidence is back (?) but earnings show that the consumer is being picky.

              https://www.marketbeat.com/articles/confidence-is-back-but-earnings-show-the-consumer-is-being-picky/?utm_source=retirely&utm_medium=retirely

 

              Risk events are everywhere.

  https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/risk-events-are-everywhere-you-look-week?gift=eyJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiIsInR5cCI6IkpXVCJ9.eyJuaWQiOiIxMTE5NTM0Iiwic2VuZGVyVWlkIjoiUUhnc3BaZVVFS2E3RHhXM216eFlKbjhaWEFoMiIsImlhdCI6MTc4NTI0MjE4NCwiZXhwIjoxNzg3ODM0MTg0LCJhdWQiOiJ6aC1naWZ0In0.pO3ybEx9CcRWMSapRVRotkhhKFg6tZydZnOTKe6-pg8

 

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

 

 

What I am reading today

 

            Five truths about retirement.

                https://www.washingtonpost.com/wellness/2026/07/24/5-truths-about-retirement-that-retirees-wish-theyd-known-sooner/

 

 

Visit Investing for Survival’s website (http://investingforsurvival.com/home) to learn more about our Investment Strategy, Prices Disciplines and Subscriber Service.

 

 

 

Monday, July 27, 2026

Monday Morning Chartology

 

The Morning Call

 

7/27/26

 

 

The Market

         

    Technical

 

As you can see, the S&P busted that triangle formation, reset its 50 DMA to resistance and made a new lower low. The bad news is that the next visible major support level is the 100 DMA (~7178) with some minor support at ~7292 and ~7244.  The good news is that the index created a gap down open which needs to be filled plus it remains above both its 100 and 200 DMAs and is in uptrends across all timeframes.  Right now, the focus is on follow through to the downside---or lack thereof.

 

Has the selloff gone too far?

https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/has-selloff-gone-too-far?gift=eyJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiIsInR5cCI6IkpXVCJ9.eyJuaWQiOiIxMTE5MzY2Iiwic2VuZGVyVWlkIjoiUUhnc3BaZVVFS2E3RHhXM216eFlKbjhaWEFoMiIsImlhdCI6MTc4NTE1NzQ0MSwiZXhwIjoxNzg3NzQ5NDQxLCJhdWQiOiJ6aC1naWZ0In0.P1-1mmwf17dkT61akH-aklF-qxx0MyKntb3sL6BSdTA

 

 

 

 


 

The long bond continued its dismal performance---not surprising given oil prices (the war) and the prospect for a new round of tariffs. There is nothing occurring that changes my opinion that TLT is going nowhere.  What we know technically is that TLT is below all three DMAs and in downtrends across all timeframes; so for the long bond to rise enough to even challenge the upper boundary of its very short term uptrend, I think that it is going to take a series of positive developments.

 

TIPS yields.

https://econbrowser.com/archives/2026/07/up-up-and-away-tips-yields

 

The bond market just flipped to ‘a rate hike in July’.

https://wolfstreet.com/2026/07/23/bond-market-just-flipped-to-rate-hike-in-july-as-2-month-treasury-yield-spiked-by-13-basis-points/

 

 

 


 

 

GLD remains in a well-defined downtrend.  It is below all three DMAs and is challenging the lower boundary of its short term uptrend---though it looks like it is trying to hold above that level---which would be the first good news it has had for some time.  Follow through.

 

 


 

 

The dollar continues to develop a very well defined very short term uptrend but on a longer term basis is still wandering in the wilderness, i.e., it has a long way to go to get out of its short term trading range.  Still it is making progress towards that goal which I believe will help if the Fed tightens money supply.

 






 

Friday in the charts.

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/turbulent-week-ends-optimistic-note-hormuz-hopes-trump-tech-wreck?gift=eyJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiIsInR5cCI6IkpXVCJ9.eyJuaWQiOiIxMTE5MTk2Iiwic2VuZGVyVWlkIjoiUUhnc3BaZVVFS2E3RHhXM216eFlKbjhaWEFoMiIsImlhdCI6MTc4NDkyNDEwOSwiZXhwIjoxNzg3NTE2MTA5LCJhdWQiOiJ6aC1naWZ0In0.lrarx6esQ7TSYh-BhrDRAq1T0lxFXQ8JzjdCibE9l8M

 

Friday in the technical stats.

https://www.barchart.com/stocks/momentum

https://www.barchart.com/stocks/market-performance

https://www.barchart.com/stocks/sectors/rankings

https://www.barchart.com/stocks/signals/new-recommendations

 

..

Bullish sentiment starting to wane.

https://www.bespokepremium.com/interactive/posts/think-big-blog/bullish-sentiment-starting-to-swing

 

            The latest for Goldman’s desk.

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/degree-difficulty-remains-high-goldmans-pasquariello-suggests-start-nibbling-gold-watch?gift=eyJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiIsInR5cCI6IkpXVCJ9.eyJuaWQiOiIxMTE5MjUyIiwic2VuZGVyVWlkIjoiUUhnc3BaZVVFS2E3RHhXM216eFlKbjhaWEFoMiIsImlhdCI6MTc4NTE1NTgwNSwiZXhwIjoxNzg3NzQ3ODA1LCJhdWQiOiJ6aC1naWZ0In0.OfdYP7T8GAYBYFivt0cjk5L18iKDCPlGEw80O7j8uEQ

 

 

Monday morning setup: A sharp drop in oil prices prompted by a quieter weekend for geopolitics and a pause in MidEast hostilities also sparked a drop in bond yields and the USD. A powerful relief rally in stocks and bonds emerged after a lull in hostilities in the Middle East, and started a week packed with earnings and a stack of interest-rate decisions on a positive note. As of 8.00am ET, Nasdaq futures surged after the index logged its first back-to-back weekly declines since March; S&P 500 futures rose 1%. After Friday's rout, all Mag 7 stocks gained amid the relief rally in tech and AI-related stocks (Meta Platforms +1.8%, Alphabet +1.7%, Amazon +1.4%, Tesla +1.3%, Microsoft +1%, Nvidia +0.9%, Apple +0.1%). While Asian markets closed mixed, European stocks advanced as broader risk sentiment gets a boost from a pullback in energy prices. Brent crude futures for September fell 9% to around $88 a barrel (these hit $100 late last week) after a lull in hostilities in the Middle East over the weekend. Bond yields fell around the world, with the rate on 10-year Treasuries declining four basis points to 4.64%. The easing came after the US paused a nearly two-week run of strikes against Iran for a third straight night, sending Brent 8.2% lower to $89 a barrel. The dollar fell 0.2%, while gold hit $4,100 an ounce. UK and German 10-year borrowing costs dropped 4-5 bps each. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell 0.2%; the Swedish krona and Swiss franc are the best performing G-10 currencies, rising 0.4% each. Precious metals advance, with spot silver up around 2%. Today's eco calendar has US Durable goods and the Dallas Fed Mfg Activity (est. 2.0). A slew of earnings, including fresh clues on the pace of AI infrastructure investment, will keep traders on their toes in coming days. On top of that, there’s a Fed interest-rate decision and a reading of its preferred, core PCE inflation index this week. 

 

Turning to earnings, of the 135 S&P 500 companies to have reported to date, 86% have beaten analysts’ EPS forecasts, while 10% have missed. On sales, 69% of companies have positively surprised, while 15% have missed.

 

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

There were very few US stats last week.  What there was, was upbeat with no inflation numbers but one negative primary datapoint. Overseas, the data was overwhelmingly positive, dominated by the flash PMI figures.  The inflation measures were balanced with one positive, one neutral and one negative stat.

 

There is nothing in this data to alter my view of steadily growing economy. However, the war is continuing to add to inflationary concerns.  More importantly, investors are starting to realize that war or not, oil reserves have been pulled down to a level that they can no longer make up for the lack of new supplies.  While that may be a short term issue and hence temporary in its impact on inflation, it is still being seen as a negative---as a potential bottleneck to production, a near term threat to consumers (i.e., gasoline and the heating and cooling of homes) and increasing odds of a rate hike in July. Clearly, the level of uncertainty is extremely high.  So for the moment, my ‘inflation is as good as its going to get though it may not get any worse’ position remains.

https://econbrowser.com/archives/2026/07/back-to-may-cost-of-living-wise

 

Another issue that is of growing concern to investors is the intensifying discussion on the viability of the current rate of AI spend---not just about stock prices but about the impact of potential overspending (if there has been overspending) would have on the economy.  Trying to figure that issue out is beyond my capabilities; but it demands that we be very attentive to the rapidly changing AI landscape for both economic and portfolio reasons.

https://talkmarkets.com/article/earnings-season-to-put-the-future-of-the-ai-boom-back-in-focus-as-infrastructure-spending-takes-its-toll-1784914072

 

How much has big tech overspent on AI buildout?

https://mishtalk.com/economics/how-much-has-big-tech-overspent-in-ai-buildout/

 

Finally, who can forget tariffs.  Certainly, not the Donald. What is amazing to me is that despite the record of failure of his tariff regime, he continues to penalize allies and the American electorate with his wistful devotion to said policy.  That, of course, is just what the bears need to up their case for higher inflation/rates and slower growth.

 

Switzerland.  Really?

https://www.wsj.com/economy/trade/switzerland-rejects-forced-labor-accusations-after-u-s-imposes-new-tariffs-66d82043?st=2AqJQk&reflink=desktopwebshare_permalink

 

 

Bottom line: the economy continues to grow despite the ruling class’s best effort to sabotage it while inflation remains well above the Fed’s target. There are plenty of storm clouds, so caution is needed.

 

                        US

 

                                    From Friday:

 

                            June new home sales were up 1.6% versus forecasts of up 3.4%.

                             https://bonddad.blogspot.com/2026/07/june-new-home-sales-prices-and.html

 

The flash July manufacturing PMI was 53.8 versus predictions of 54.3; the flash services PMI was 53.6 versus 51.5; the flash composite PMI was 53.6 versus 52.3.

 

June durable goods orders were up 0.3% versus consensus of +2.5%; ex transportation, they were up 0.6% versus +0.8%.

 

                        International

 

May Japanese leading economic indicators came in at 116.5 versus expectations of 116.8.

 

The July German business climate index was 86.6 versus estimates of 86.0; the July current conditions index was 86.5 versus 87.3.

 

                        Other

 

            Overnight News

 

Iran will halt its own attacks as long as the United States does the same, a senior Iranian official told Reuters on Sunday. The development comes as the United States pressed ‌pause on its bombing campaign after President Donald Trump's advisers told him they were running out of targets and expressed worries about depleting the U.S. arsenal.

 

A US appeals court refused the DOJ’s request to let federal officials move ahead with Trump’s mail-voting overhaul ahead of the November midterm elections.

 

ECB will have to raise interest rates at least one more time to ensure that inflation risks don’t spin out of control, Governing Council member Peter Kazimir said.

Big Companies Are Starting to Hire Again, Defying Predictions of AI Wipeout. After a year of holding back on new hires, companies from tech and transportation to defense now say they need more people to work alongside AI.

 

Mirroring the pre-election patterns in uncertainty, volatility, and investor flows, US equities have typically traded sideways in the few months ahead of midterms. US equity returns are generally modest during this part of the calendar year but have been weaker on average in midterm election years. During midterm election years of the past few decades, the S&P 500 has generated a median return of 0% from the start of August through Election Day. Returns have typically improved as uncertainty subsided post-election, with the S&P 500 returning a median of 6% in the subsequent 3 months.

 

            Monetary Policy

 

              The need for a new central bank mindset.

              https://thehill.com/opinion/finance/5979598-monetary-policy-paradigm-shifts/

 

            Fiscal Policy

           

              The growing policy of nihilism.

              https://reason.com/2026/07/23/the-dsa-maga-and-the-new-policy-nihilism/

 

            Tariffs

 

              Trump the humanitarian.

              https://cafehayek.com/2026/07/trump-abandons-his-america-first-stance.html

 

     Investing

 

                        Valuations are high; should you sell?

            https://www.carsongroup.com/insights/blog/valuations-are-high-should-i-sell/

 

                        More on the subject.

            https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=6900766

 

                        Volatility is the price of admission.

            https://www.advisorperspectives.com/commentaries/2026/07/24/price-admission-further-equity-upside-cost-volatility

 

                        Investing in boom times.

            https://awealthofcommonsense.com/2026/07/investing-in-the-boom-times/

 

                        The latest from BofA.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/hartnett-bonds-finally-bringing-heat

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

 

What I am reading today

 

            A hopeful view of America’s youth.

            https://www.realclearmarkets.com/articles/2026/07/24/scott_atlas_paints_an_unrecognizable_picture_of_american_devastation_1196178.html

 

            How long would it take for a hacker to break your passcode?

            https://politicalcalculations.blogspot.com/2026/07/how-long-would-hacker-take-to-crack.html

 

Visit Investing for Survival’s website (http://investingforsurvival.com/home) to learn more about our Investment Strategy, Prices Disciplines and Subscriber Service.

 

 

 

Friday, July 24, 2026

The Morning Call--The most fundamental macro risk is back

 

The Morning Call

 

7/24/26

 

The Market

         

    Technical

 

            Thursday in the charts.

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/hypershrinkers-hormuz-hell-oil-soars-tech-wrecks-rate-hike-odds-rip?gift=eyJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiIsInR5cCI6IkpXVCJ9.eyJuaWQiOiIxMTE5MDg5Iiwic2VuZGVyVWlkIjoiUUhnc3BaZVVFS2E3RHhXM216eFlKbjhaWEFoMiIsImlhdCI6MTc4NDgzODQyNSwiZXhwIjoxNzg3NDMwNDI1LCJhdWQiOiJ6aC1naWZ0In0.e3WFxKBpuilcI3slBCfvRN2QX5sXErJX579nINhII4c

 

            Thursday in the technical stats.

            https://www.barchart.com/stocks/momentum

            https://www.barchart.com/stocks/market-performance

            https://www.barchart.com/stocks/sectors/rankings

            https://www.barchart.com/stocks/signals/new-recommendations

 

Friday morning setup: US equity futures are seeing a modest rebound after posting their biggest drop this month, as Brent crude dropped back under $100 a barrel, and bond yields and rate hike odds - which track the price of oil one to one - halted their ascent. As of 6:00am ET,  S&P 500 futures rose 0.3%, with the index still on track for its first back-to-back weekly loss since the early stages of the Iran war. Tech stocks remained under pressure as South Korea’s memory and Japanese chip giants were pummeled. Treasury yields hovered just below their highest levels this year, while Brent fell more than 3% toward $97 a barrel. Traders are moving cautiously after a week in which stocks and bonds were rattled by the intensifying war in Iran, soaring oil prices and fresh concerns over whether massive investments in AI will pay off. Investors are now bracing for a weekend that could bring further escalation in the Middle East, ahead of a stack of earnings from AI hyperscalers next week.

Michael Hewson, analyst at iForex, said he was surprised by how well markets are holding up despite the sharp increase in oil prices. As for earnings, “next week is a really big week and it could be make-or-break in terms of where markets go next,” he said. “There’s an awful lot more nervousness now about capex, particularly when you’re talking about AI and where’s the return on investment coming.” To be sure, investors are contending with a growing wall of worry over AI spending, rising competition from Chinese frontier models, and increasingly crowded positioning. Amid soaring Chinese competition with open models which some accuse of being offered at dumping prices, the cost of tokens has tumbled and erased the entire recent "agentic" surge;  not surprisingly, stock prices of hyperscalers have followed suit.

 

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

 

                          June building permits fell 2.1% versus consensus of -3.0%.

 

The July Kansas City Fed manufacturing index was reported at 17 versus projections of 11.

 

                        International

 

June Japanese CPI was up 0.3% versus estimates of +0.2%; the July flash manufacturing PMI was 54.7 versus 54.5; the flash services PMI was 51.9 versus 53.0; the flash composite PMI was 53.1 versus 52.8.

 

June UK retail sales were up 1.0% versus expectations of -0.3%: ex fuel, they were up 1.1% versus -0.4%; the July consumer confidence index was -17 versus -21: the July flash manufacturing PMI was 52.8 versus 52.0; the flash services PMI was 51.8 versus 49.4; the flash composite PMI was 52.1 versus 49.7.

 

The July EU flash consumer confidence index was -15.9 versus -16.8; the July flash manufacturing PMI was 52.0 versus 51.5; the flash services PMI was 51.6 versus 49.8; the flash composite PMI was 51.9 versus 50.3.

 

The July flash German manufacturing PMI was 52.2 versus forecasts of 50.5; the flash services PMI was 49.6 versus 49.0; the flash composite PMI was 51.2 versus 49.8.

 

                        Other

 

                          How useful is the University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey?

                          https://politicalcalculations.blogspot.com/2026/07/less-than-useful-data-michigan-consumer.html

 

                          Mortgage rates are the highest in a year.

                          https://wolfstreet.com/2026/07/22/mortgage-rates-rise-to-6-77-highest-in-a-year-driven-by-bond-market-fears-of-inflation-the-ballooning-debt/

                       

                          Yesterday’s jobless claims number was near historic lows.

                                  https://bonddad.blogspot.com/2026/07/the-no-fire-economy-sets-new-55-year.html

 

            Iran

 

              Overnight news.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/trump-losing-patience-revenge-mode-after-13th-consecutive-night-us-strikes-iran

 

              The chokepoint risk.

              https://www.apollo.com/wealth/insights-news/insights/daily-spark/The-Chokepoint-Risk

 

            Fiscal Policy

 

              Questions to ask your senate candidate.

              https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2026/07/17/social-security-crisis-is-coming-do-senate-candidates-have-plan/

 

              Whatever we do, don’t let congress reform social security.

              https://www.realclearmarkets.com/articles/2026/07/23/whatever_we_do_we_must_not_let_congress_reform_social_security_1195898.html

 

Lessons that we can learn from the UK. (there is a little too much politics in this piece, in my opinion.  But there is also some good points)

             https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/the-uk-is-a-cautionary-tale-for-the

 

     Investing

 

            How instructive is the equity risk premium?

            https://www.morningstar.com/financial-advisors/is-equity-risk-premium-dead

 

            Space is the next internet.

            https://issuesinsights.com/2026/07/22/space-isnt-the-next-tulip-mania-its-the-next-internet/

 

            Update in valuations.

            https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2026/07/22/market-valuation-is-the-market-still-overvalued

 

            A shift in market leadership.

            https://www.advisorperspectives.com/commentaries/2026/07/23/shift-stock-market-leadership

 

            Has bitcoin finally bottomed?

            https://talkmarkets.com/article/bitcoin-finally-bottomed-as-its-under-the-radar-rebound-gains-momentum-1784804574

 

            Costly mistakes.

            https://ritholtz.com/2026/07/vanguard-costliest-mistakes/

 

            The most fundamental macro risk is back.

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/most-fundamental-macro-risk-back?gift=eyJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiIsInR5cCI6IkpXVCJ9.eyJuaWQiOiIxMTE5MDUwIiwic2VuZGVyVWlkIjoiUUhnc3BaZVVFS2E3RHhXM216eFlKbjhaWEFoMiIsImlhdCI6MTc4NDgyMTU1OCwiZXhwIjoxNzg3NDEzNTU4LCJhdWQiOiJ6aC1naWZ0In0.zA9EUcQr05YU-WILYMqStvjx5ltRvwO1XVYexCug6Zs

 

            Thoughts from a bear.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/closing-time-ai-bubble-sooner-most-think-ed-dowd-warns-iran-war-brings-global-recession

 

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

 

 

What I am reading today

 

           

 

 

Visit Investing for Survival’s website (http://investingforsurvival.com/home) to learn more about our Investment Strategy, Prices Disciplines and Subscriber Service.