The Morning Call--Searching for signs of capitulation

 

The Morning Call

 

3/13/26

 

The Market

         

    Technical

 

            Thursday in the charts.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/retail-retreat-sparks-stock-slump-crude-jumps-tehran-turmoil-goes-turbo

 

Note: the next support level likely to be tested is the 200 DMA (~6600). If that doesn’t hold then the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement levels (~6483).

 

                Thursday in the technical stats.

            https://www.barchart.com/stocks/momentum

            https://www.barchart.com/stocks/market-performance

            https://www.barchart.com/stocks/sectors/rankings

            https://www.barchart.com/stocks/signals/new-recommendations

 

                More from JP Morgan’s desk.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/where-here-jpmorgan-trading-desk-scenario-analysis

 

            Searching for signs of capitulation.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/searching-signs-capitulation

 

            Seasonality: the Market tends to trough in mid-March.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/vix-tends-peak-and-spy-trough-mid-march

 

            What retail is doing.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/iran-war-broke-buy-dip-retail-investors-show-persistent-signs-weakness

 

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

 

Q4 (2^nd est.) GDP grew 0.7% versus forecasts of +1.4%; the QoQ PCE price index was +3.8% versus +3.7%; the QoQ core PCE price index was +2.7%, in line.

https://www.zerohedge.com/personal-finance/feds-favorite-inflation-indicator-rises-near-2-year-high

 

January durable goods orders fell 1.4% versus expectations of +1.2%; ex transportation, they were up 0.4% versus +0.5%

 

The January PCE price index was up 0.4%, in line.

 

January personal income rose 0.4% versus consensus of +0.5%; personal spending was up 0.4% versus +0.3%.

 

                        International

 

                           January EU industrial production fell 1.5% versus predictions of +0.6%.

 

January UK GDP was flat versus estimates of +0.2%; the January trade balance was +L3.9 billion versus -L6.2 billion; January industrial production fell 0.1% versus +0.2%; January YoY construction output was down 0.2% versus -0.1%.

 

February German PPI came in at +0.6% versus projections of +0.4%.      

 

                        Other

 

                          Mixed signals from the housing market.

                          https://bonddad.blogspot.com/2026/03/housing-permits-starts-and-construction.html

 

            Iran

 

              Overnight news.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/two-more-tankers-hit-bringing-total-six-ships-oil-tops-100-after-trump-declares-we-won

 

            Inflation

 

              Grocery prices continue to rise.

              https://econbrowser.com/archives/2026/03/grocery-prices-continue-to-rise

 

The bad joke Owners’ Equivalent Rent. (Much of this article is a review of Tuesday’s CPI reading. That subject has already been covered in a prior post---so you can skip it. Just go the section OER which is a great explanation of what and why this is a bogus measure)

https://wolfstreet.com/2026/03/11/cpi-inflation-rose-on-food-energy-prices-even-before-gasoline-price-spike-yoy-still-pushed-down-by-bad-joke-oer/

 

              The two main inflation gauges are telling different stories.

  https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2026-03-12/the-two-main-us-inflation-gauges-are-telling-different-stories?srnd=homepage-americas&sref=loFkkPMQ

 

 

            The Financial System

 

              The private credit sausage factory.

              https://philbak.substack.com/p/the-pe-sausage-factory

 

     Investing

 

            Is the 60/40 model portfolio all it is cracked up to be?

            https://www.carsongroup.com/insights/blog/the-60-40-portfolio-a-historical-powerhouse-or-a-rate-dependent-misinterpretation/

 

            Understanding the portfolio effects of US equity market concentration.      

https://www.deshaw.com/assets/articles/DESCO_The_Concentration_Game_20260224.pdf

 

The S&P mean reverts. (I wonder what this graph would look like if it was plotted for a longer period of time)

https://politicalcalculations.blogspot.com/2026/03/the-s-500-reverts-back-to-mean.html

 

            War costs sink government bonds.

                        https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-03-12/war-spending-sinks-long-term-government-bonds-on-deficit-worries?sref=loFkkPMQ

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

 

What I am reading today

 

            Quote of the day.

            https://cafehayek.com/2026/03/quotation-of-the-day-5313.html

 

 

 

Visit Investing for Survival’s website (http://investingforsurvival.com/home) to learn more about our Investment Strategy, Prices Disciplines and Subscriber Service.

 

 

 

The Morning Call--The war from Iran's perspective

 

The Morning Call

 

3/12/26

 

The Market

         

    Technical

 

            Wednesday in the charts.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/credit-crude-crush-bonds-stocks-right-tail-squeeze-risk-remains

 

            Wednesday in the technical stats.

            https://www.barchart.com/stocks/momentum           

            https://www.barchart.com/stocks/market-performance

            https://www.barchart.com/stocks/sectors/rankings

            https://www.barchart.com/stocks/signals/new-recommendations

 

            From Goldman’s desk.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/private-credit-ramps-executive-put-dominate-market-action

 

            Something starting to break.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/oil-volatility-exploding-and-something-starting-break

 

            A bubble may be bursting and it is not because of Iran.

                        https://www.marketwatch.com/story/this-uncanny-s-p-500-chart-suggests-a-bubble-is-bursting-and-not-just-because-of-iran-77d45514?st=tPJzne

 

            Mag seven meltdown or bull market reset?

            https://trendlabs.com/mag-seven-meltdown-or-bull-market-reset/

 

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

 

                          Weekly initial jobless claims totaled 213,000 versus consensus of 215,000.

 

The January trade balance was -$54.5 billion versus predictions of -$66.6 billion.

 

January housing starts were up 7.2% versus forecasts of down 2.4%; January building permits were down 5.3% versus -1.5%.

 

                        International

 

                        Other

 

                          Changes in immigration enforcement and median household income.

                          https://politicalcalculations.blogspot.com/2026/03/changes-in-immigration-enforcement-and.html

 

                          Update on the supply/demand in the housing market.

                          https://wolfstreet.com/2026/03/10/supply-of-single-family-homes-surges-to-highest-for-february-in-9-years-demand-stuck-in-the-deepfreeze/

 

                          A detailed look at yesterday's CPI number.

                          https://bonddad.blogspot.com/2026/03/february-cpi-likely-last-hurrah-for.html

 

            Iran

 

              Overnight News.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/two-more-tankers-hit-bringing-total-six-ships-oil-tops-100-after-trump-declares-we-won

 

Here is a summary of Iran’s and the opposition’s thinking about the war and its outcome.

https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2026/03/iran-war-iran-seeks-decolonization-of-gulf-region-iea-proposes-emergency-release-of-reserves-nuclear-strike-risk-assessment-iran-escalates-strikes.html

 

              LNG suppliers declare force majeure on contracts with Qatar.

              https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-03-11/shell-declares-force-majeure-on-lng-contracts-from-qatar?srnd=homepage-americas

 

The International Energy Agency agrees to release 400 million barrels of oil from reserves.

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/iea-proposes-largest-ever-oil-stockpile-release-there-just-one-big-problem

 

            Monetary Policy

 

              The case for an easier Fed.

              https://scottgrannis.blogspot.com/2026/03/jobs-and-war-fed-needs-to-ease.html

 

              Counterpoint.

  https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2026-03-11/us-fiscal-discipline-depends-on-an-independent-federal-reserve?srnd=homepage-americas&sref=loFkkPMQ

 

                          Lack of clarity plagues Fed policy.

              https://www.capitalspectator.com/the-war-may-end-soon-but-the-feds-battle-is-only-beginning/

 

            The Financial System

 

              JP Morgan restricts loans to private credit.

              https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-03-11/jpmorgan-marks-down-private-credit-portfolios-ft-reports?srnd=homepage-americas&sref=loFkkPMQ

 

                          Bad underwriting is the crisis in private credit.

  https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-03-11/pimco-blames-sloppy-underwriting-for-private-credit-reckoning?srnd=homepage-americas&sref=loFkkPMQ

 

 

                          Apollo plans to value its private securities fund monthly.

  https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-03-11/apollo-plans-to-value-private-credit-daily-in-answer-to-critics?srnd=homepage-americas&sref=loFkkPMQ

 

 

     Investing

 

            There is no ‘smart money’ or ‘dumb money’.

            https://www.wsj.com/finance/investing/smart-money-dumb-money-its-all-just-money-706cd1e3?st=YkxGqW

 

            Why private market funds are dangerous for retail investors.

            https://www.promarket.org/2026/03/09/why-private-market-funds-are-dangerous-for-retail-investors/

 

            Ed Yardini on the financial stocks.

            FINANCIALS: Black & Blue Owl

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

 

 

What I am reading today

 

           

 

 

Visit Investing for Survival’s website (http://investingforsurvival.com/home) to learn more about our Investment Strategy, Prices Disciplines and Subscriber Service.

 

 

 

The Morning Call---another domino

 

The Morning Call

 

3/11/26

 

The Market

         

    Technical

 

            Tuesday in the charts.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/crude-chaos-software-slammed-bitcoin-bullion-bid

 

Note: the S&P tried to follow through the Monday rally, but (1) bounced down [unsuccessfully challenged] off its 100 DMA, (2) made a second lower low and (3) a third lower high. Not that encouraging and suggesting another attempt at challenging its 200 DMA may be in the offing.

 

Tuesday in the technical stats.

https://www.barchart.com/stocks/momentum

https://www.barchart.com/stocks/market-performance

https://www.barchart.com/stocks/sectors/rankings

https://www.barchart.com/stocks/signals/new-recommendations

 

            Calm market illusion.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/calm-market-illusion

 

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

 

Weekly mortgage applications were up 3.2% while purchase application grew 7.8%.

 

Month to date retail chain store sales were up 6.2% versus +7.0% in the prior week.

 

February existing home sales rose 1.7% versus forecasts of -0.8%.

                          https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2026/03/10/existing-home-sales-rebound-1-7-in-february-beat-expectations

 

                                                  February CPI was up 0.2%, in line; core CPI was up 0.3%, also in line.

 

                        International

 

                          February Japanese PPI came in down 0.1% versus projections of +0.1%.

 

                          February German CPI was up 0.2%, in line.

 

                        Other

 

                          The latest data suggests no job growth in 2025.

                          https://bonddad.blogspot.com/2026/03/the-gold-standard-qcew-for-last-q3.html

 

            Iran

 

              Overnight news.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/hegseth-warns-most-intense-day-operation-epic-fury-iea-plans-largest-ever-spr-dump

 

              Western power rally to support Gulf States.

              https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-03-10/western-powers-rally-to-defend-gulf-states-from-iranian-attacks?sref=loFkkPMQ

 

              Trump doesn’t understand his enemy.

              https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2026-03-10/iran-war-trump-doesn-t-know-his-enemy-that-gives-iran-an-edge?sref=loFkkPMQ

 

              No return to normal anytime soon.

              https://www.ft.com/content/b33b5ff1-7a92-4d0f-a4e7-dfa70d17e739

 

              An eye for an eye.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/irgc-says-iran-not-us-will-determine-wars-end-trump-threatens-strikes-20-times-harder

 

            Monetary Policy

 

              The Fed is not a repair shop.

              https://www.realclearmarkets.com/articles/2026/03/10/kevin_warsh_says_the_fed_is_not_a_repair_shop_he_must_draw_the_line_1169478.html

 

            Fiscal Policy

 

              If a debt crisis loomed, there would be no borrowing.

              https://www.realclearmarkets.com/articles/2026/03/10/if_a_debt_crisis_loomed_there_would_be_no_federal_borrowing_1169420.html

 

            Inflation

 

              The next inflation crisis.

              https://talkmarkets.com/article/the-iran-war-just-lit-the-fuse-on-americas-next-inflation-crisis-1773164723

 

              Food prices could be as big a shock to inflation as energy prices.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/food-shock-could-be-bad-bonds-energy-shock

 

            The Financial System

 

              Another domino.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/find-described-first-domino-private-credit-bank-run-hit-over-7-redemptions

 

     Investing

 

            Repeating history?

            https://alhambrapartners.com/weekly-market-pulse-repeating-history/?src=news

           

Markets under pressure from triple threat.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2026-03-10/iran-war-ai-disruption-private-credit-shock-markets-at-the-same-time?srnd=homepage-americas&sref=loFkkPMQ

 

            Busting the myth of Treasuries as a safe haven.

            https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2026-03-10/are-us-treasuries-a-haven-for-investors-not-always?srnd=homepage-americas&sref=loFkkPMQ

 

            The Treasury market in not ready for an energy shock.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/treasury-market-not-ready-energy-shock

 

            The new Market structure.

            https://talkmarkets.com/article/24-hours-later-what-yesterdays-vix-spike-actually-meant-1773162728

 

            Why it is so hard to predict markets.

            https://behaviouralinvestment.com/2026/03/10/why-is-it-so-hard-to-predict-financial-markets/

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

 

What I am reading today

 

           

 

 

Visit Investing for Survival’s website (http://investingforsurvival.com/home) to learn more about our Investment Strategy, Prices Disciplines and Subscriber Service.