https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/private-credit-panic-spreads-consumer-loan-fund-gates-investors-jpmorgan-pulls-deal-apollo
An Analysis of Daily Events that Impact Your Money
Thursday, March 19, 2026
Monday, March 16, 2026
Monday Morning Chartology
The Morning Call
3/16/26
I am off to the beach. Back in a
week.
The
Market
Technical
Having made a series of lower highs and lower
lows, it would appear that momentum is now to the downside with the 200 DMA
(~6604) and the 23.6% Fibonacci level (~6483) being the next visible support
levels. That said, given the raft of bad news, it is surprising that the
current downtrend isn’t more dramatic than it is. Of course, with the Iran war
seemingly being the most important factor on which investors are focused,
circumstances could change on a dime, i.e., at the whim of the Donald---at
which he is an expert. The hitch in that gitty-up is that the Iranian ruling
class appears (operative word) ready to fight to the last man; and that doesn’t
suggest a quick or easy solution. All of which makes me want to sit on my hands.
Further, I believe that the private credit
crisis could prove a much bigger negative than the Market seems to be factoring
in. So my bottom line is, let’s all hope that the 200 DMA/Fibonacci support
levels hold because it could get a lot worse. I certainly wouldn’t consider
doing anything in the absence of the S&P negating the current very short
term downtrend. On the other hand, my Buy List is growing.
Margin debt at
record highs.
https://www.apolloacademy.com/margin-debt-at-record-highs/
Record
liquidations
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/historic-liquidation-institutions-just-sold-most-sp-futures-record
The
latest from Goldman’s desk.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/market-more-balanced-still-fragile-warns-top-goldman-trader
The bond market continued
its sell off last week---which is to be expected given the headlines featured
higher oil prices/inflation and potential turmoil in the financial system. TLT is now below all DMAs and in downtrends
across all major time frames. It is only the lower boundary of its very short
term trading range that offers any visible support, which I anticipate will be
challenged shortly---barring some miracle in the Middle East.
Given the spike in
oil prices (future inflation) and the strong dollar (see below), the weak pin
action in GLD is not surprising. However, it remains above all three DMAs and
in uptrends across all major timeframes. Of course, a prolonged period of
rising oil prices and dollar would likely put gold’s uptrend in jeopardy. For
the moment, I am holding my GDX; but I will sell it if gold breaks down
technically.
https://www.zerohedge.com/precious-metals/gold-may-not-be-safest-haven-goldman-futures-trader-warns
I think it unfortunate that dollar regains some strength on
bad news (war, credit crisis) as opposed to good news (strong economy, lower
inflation). But that is the scenario we got. Like every other index, its
current trend is highly dependent on the length and outcome of the war. Absent
that, the macroeconomic backdrop of the US economy (slow growth and rising
inflation) suggests a lower dollar. Further, I think any capitulation on our
part in the war with Iran (which unfortunately seems a possible if not probable
outcome) would find the dollar sliding again.
Friday in the
charts.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/tehran-turmoil-tanks-stocks-bonds-black-gold-bitcoin-bid
More
charts.
https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/spx-stuck-range-big-short-builds
Friday in the technical stats.
https://www.barchart.com/stocks/momentum
https://www.barchart.com/stocks/market-performance
https://www.barchart.com/stocks/sectors/rankings
https://www.barchart.com/stocks/signals/new-recommendations
Fundamental
Headlines
The
Economy
The
US stats were tilted to the positive side last week, though the primary
indicators were slightly negative (four plus, one neutral, five minus) and the
inflation measures balanced (one positive, one neutral, one negative). Overseas,
the numbers were overwhelmingly downbeat with the inflation indicators slightly
negative (one plus, one neutral, two negative).
Given
that the effects of the Iran war and the turmoil in the private credit market
have yet to manifest themselves in the economic numbers, I am putting my
forecasts for growth and inflation on hold---though clearly the longer the war
lasts and the greater the losses in private credit, the greater the impact on
the outlook.
In
the case of the Iran war, the principal variable is Trump and given his
unpredictable behavior patterns (which are not necessarily a negative), I think
it foolish to attempt to project how long this conflict will last.
Here
is the optimistic take (the operative word in this analysis is ‘temporary’).
Who
says, we won’?
https://danieldrezner.substack.com/p/im-sick-and-tired-of-all-the-winning
Whenever
the war ends, it still won’t provide clarity for Fed policy.
https://www.capitalspectator.com/the-war-may-end-soon-but-the-feds-battle-is-only-beginning/
The
fog of war and monetary policy.
https://assets.realclear.com/files/2026/03/2858_43b8b3ca-935d-41e5-a8ed-72f06f43e2df.pdf
The
private credit problem is a bit easier to analyze simply because it reflects a
continuing pattern of human behavior---the financial markets develop a new
product that mines a lucrative niche in the economy, money pours in, the financiers
leverage up and buy all the high return alternatives, but the fees are so
attractive, they start chasing higher risk, lower return projects to the point
where the entire niche blows up and takes a decent chunk of the financial
system with it.
I
have lived through two of these episodes and the only questions in my mind are
(1) how many of the private sector loans are trash and (2) how large the
exposure of the banking and insurance industries is. Of course, no one has any
idea concerning the answers to those questions. But if history repeats itself,
the outcome for the economy and the Market will not be a pleasant experience. _
US
The
March New York Fed manufacturing index came in at -0.2 versus estimates of
+3.2.
International
January/February Chinese
YoY industrial production grew 6.3% versus expectations +5.1%; January/February
YoY retail sales were up 2.8% versus +2.5%; January/February
YoY fixed asset investments were up 1.8% versus -0.4%; February unemployment
was up 5.3% versus 5.1%.
Other
Update on big four recession indicators.
Update on real disposable income.
Consumer sentiment at 2026 low.
More
on Friday’s personal income and spending data.
https://bonddad.blogspot.com/2026/03/january-personal-income-and-spending.html
The economic week
ahead.
ECONOMIC
WEEK AHEAD: March 16-20
Iran
Overnight news.
More
on the Iranian perspective on the war.
https://www.bloomberg.com/features/2026-vali-nasr-weekend-interview/?srnd=homepage-americas
How the war impacts the Gulf States.
Some costs related to escorting ships through
the Strait of Hormuz.
Oil crisis math.
Goldman hikes gold price forecast.
Inflation
Food inflation in the US.
https://wolfstreet.com/2026/03/11/food-inflation-in-america/
US inflation could likely become a much
greater issue.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/us-inflation-will-soon-demand-greater-market-focus
Investing
The best long term
strategy for investing in AI is to diversify.
https://www.morningstar.com/funds/best-long-term-bet-ai-economy-look-past
The latest from BofA.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/hartnett-wall-street-ominously-trading-2008-analog
News on Stocks in Our Portfolios
What
I am reading today
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Service.
Friday, March 13, 2026
The Morning Call--Searching for signs of capitulation
The Morning Call
3/13/26
The
Market
Technical
Thursday in the
charts.
Note: the next
support level likely to be tested is the 200 DMA (~6600). If that doesn’t hold
then the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement levels (~6483).
Thursday in the technical stats.
https://www.barchart.com/stocks/momentum
https://www.barchart.com/stocks/market-performance
https://www.barchart.com/stocks/sectors/rankings
https://www.barchart.com/stocks/signals/new-recommendations
More from JP Morgan’s desk.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/where-here-jpmorgan-trading-desk-scenario-analysis
Searching for signs of capitulation.
https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/searching-signs-capitulation
Seasonality: the
Market tends to trough in mid-March.
https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/vix-tends-peak-and-spy-trough-mid-march
What retail is
doing.
Fundamental
Headlines
The
Economy
US
Q4 (2nd
est.) GDP grew 0.7% versus forecasts of +1.4%; the QoQ PCE price index was +3.8% versus
+3.7%; the QoQ core PCE price index was +2.7%, in line.
https://www.zerohedge.com/personal-finance/feds-favorite-inflation-indicator-rises-near-2-year-high
January durable
goods orders fell 1.4% versus expectations of +1.2%; ex transportation, they were
up 0.4% versus +0.5%
The January PCE price
index was up 0.4%, in line.
January personal
income rose 0.4% versus consensus of +0.5%; personal spending was up 0.4%
versus +0.3%.
International
January EU industrial
production fell 1.5% versus predictions of +0.6%.
January
UK GDP was flat versus estimates of +0.2%; the January
trade balance was +L3.9 billion versus -L6.2 billion; January industrial production fell 0.1% versus +0.2%;
January YoY construction output was down 0.2% versus -0.1%.
February
German PPI came in at +0.6% versus projections of +0.4%.
Other
Mixed signals from the housing market.
https://bonddad.blogspot.com/2026/03/housing-permits-starts-and-construction.html
Iran
Overnight news.
Inflation
Grocery prices continue to rise.
https://econbrowser.com/archives/2026/03/grocery-prices-continue-to-rise
The bad joke Owners’
Equivalent Rent. (Much of this article is a review of Tuesday’s CPI reading. That
subject has already been covered in a prior post---so you can skip it. Just go
the section OER which is a great explanation of what and why this is a bogus measure)
The two main inflation gauges are telling different
stories.
The
Financial System
The private credit sausage factory.
https://philbak.substack.com/p/the-pe-sausage-factory
Investing
Is the 60/40 model
portfolio all it is cracked up to be?
Understanding the
portfolio effects of US equity market concentration.
https://www.deshaw.com/assets/articles/DESCO_The_Concentration_Game_20260224.pdf
The S&P mean
reverts. (I wonder what this graph would look like if it was plotted for a
longer period of time)
https://politicalcalculations.blogspot.com/2026/03/the-s-500-reverts-back-to-mean.html
War costs sink government
bonds.
News on Stocks in Our Portfolios
What
I am reading today
Quote
of the day.
https://cafehayek.com/2026/03/quotation-of-the-day-5313.html
Visit Investing
for Survival’s website (http://investingforsurvival.com/home)
to learn more about our Investment Strategy, Prices Disciplines and Subscriber
Service.
Thursday, March 12, 2026
The Morning Call--The war from Iran's perspective
The Morning Call
3/12/26
The
Market
Technical
Wednesday in the
charts.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/credit-crude-crush-bonds-stocks-right-tail-squeeze-risk-remains
Wednesday in the
technical stats.
https://www.barchart.com/stocks/momentum
https://www.barchart.com/stocks/market-performance
https://www.barchart.com/stocks/sectors/rankings
https://www.barchart.com/stocks/signals/new-recommendations
From
Goldman’s desk.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/private-credit-ramps-executive-put-dominate-market-action
Something
starting to break.
https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/oil-volatility-exploding-and-something-starting-break
A bubble may be
bursting and it is not because of Iran.
Mag seven meltdown
or bull market reset?
https://trendlabs.com/mag-seven-meltdown-or-bull-market-reset/
Fundamental
Headlines
The
Economy
US
Weekly initial jobless claims totaled 213,000
versus consensus of 215,000.
The
January trade balance was -$54.5 billion versus predictions of -$66.6 billion.
January
housing starts were up 7.2% versus forecasts of down 2.4%; January
building permits were down 5.3% versus -1.5%.
International
Other
Changes in immigration enforcement and median
household income.
https://politicalcalculations.blogspot.com/2026/03/changes-in-immigration-enforcement-and.html
Update on the supply/demand in the housing
market.
A detailed look at yesterday's CPI number.
https://bonddad.blogspot.com/2026/03/february-cpi-likely-last-hurrah-for.html
Iran
Overnight News.
Here
is a summary of Iran’s and the opposition’s thinking about the war and its
outcome.
LNG suppliers declare force majeure on
contracts with Qatar.
The International
Energy Agency agrees to release 400 million barrels of oil from reserves.
Monetary
Policy
The case for an easier Fed.
https://scottgrannis.blogspot.com/2026/03/jobs-and-war-fed-needs-to-ease.html
Counterpoint.
Lack of clarity plagues Fed policy.
https://www.capitalspectator.com/the-war-may-end-soon-but-the-feds-battle-is-only-beginning/
The
Financial System
JP
Morgan restricts loans to private credit.
Bad
underwriting is the crisis in private credit.
Apollo plans to value
its private securities fund monthly.
Investing
There is no ‘smart
money’ or ‘dumb money’.
https://www.wsj.com/finance/investing/smart-money-dumb-money-its-all-just-money-706cd1e3?st=YkxGqW
Why private market
funds are dangerous for retail investors.
https://www.promarket.org/2026/03/09/why-private-market-funds-are-dangerous-for-retail-investors/
Ed Yardini on the
financial stocks.
News on Stocks in Our Portfolios
What
I am reading today
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