The Morning Call
2/12/26
The
Market
Technical
Wednesday in the
charts.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/good-jobs-news-bad-news-bonds-big-tech-bitcoin-gold-gains
Wednesday in the technical stats.
https://www.barchart.com/stocks/momentum
https://www.barchart.com/stocks/sectors/rankings
https://www.barchart.com/stocks/signals/new-recommendations
It didn’t feel
like a flat day.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/goldman-it-sure-didnt-feel-sp-flat-type-day
Fundamental
Headlines
The
Economy
US
Weekly initial jobless claims totaled 227,000 versus
forecasts of 225,000.
https://www.zerohedge.com/personal-finance/initial-jobless-claims-refuse-signal-labor-market-stress
International
Q4 UK preliminary
QoQ GDP growth was +0.1% versus expectations of +0.2%; Q4 preliminary business
investment fell 2.7% versus +0.5%; the December trade balance was -L4.3 billion
versus -L6.0 billion; December industrial production declined 0.9% versus
-0.2%; December YoY construction output was -0.3% versus -0.8%.
January Japanese
PPI came in at 0.2%, in line.
Other
The bond market is
suddenly flashing an economic slowdown (though not a recession).
This was written
before the release of yesterday’s jobs number but the author’s expectations were
spot on.
https://stayathomemacro.substack.com/p/a-year-with-no-jobsbut-no-recession
More on the jobs report.
https://bonddad.blogspot.com/2026/02/january-jobs-report-superb-monthly.html
Households under stress.
https://econbrowser.com/archives/2026/02/households-under-debt-stress-two-pictures
The impact of ‘seasonal
adjustments’ on December retail sales (remember that they were reported flat).
Update on big four recession indicators.
Overnight
News
Out of the 346
S&P 500 companies that have reported so far in the earnings season, 77%
have managed to beat analyst forecasts, while 19% have missed.
The House of
Representatives has voted to overturn Trump’s tariffs on Canada in a major
rebuke of the US president’s signature economic policy.
In a closed-door
meeting with Senate Republicans Wednesday, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent
agreed with lawmakers who suggested the Senate Banking Committee could
investigate Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, instead of the Justice
Department.
Fiscal
Policy
Your tax dollars at work: the $30 billion
state ‘slush’ fund.
China
China is winning.
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/02/10/opinion/china-ai-ev-trump.html
Investing
Death of
software---Nah.
https://x.com/stevesi/status/2019167552794948020
Massive dispersion is a warning.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/nomura-warns-massive-dispersion-us-stocks-has-not-ended-well-past
The gold/interest
rate correlation has broken down.
https://www.apolloacademy.com/gold-and-rates-correlation-breakdown/
The value rotation
illusion. (I like the gist of the author’s thesis. However, he fails to consider,
what in my mind is, a very important factor---the discounted value of future
cash flow. That is cash flow to the investor, i.e., dividends. Many of the companies
that would fit into the ‘growth’ mold pay no dividend. I don’t know how anyone
can use a model that ignores the return to the investor [clearly, this is one
man’s opinion]. As a value investor I ignore companies with no dividend; but
for those with one, I combine the dividend yield with the earnings growth rate to
calculate a theorical forward rate of return. That makes it easier to compare
NVDA with a value stock [WMT is a really bad example because even though it pays
a very small dividend, it is classed as a value stock], say Eversource Energy
[a utility] e.g. NVDA stock yield [~.0005%] plus earnings growth [~32%] versus ES
stock yield [~4.2%] plus earnings growth [~5.5%]. Then run a bastard PEG ratio ES
[~15PE/9.7=1.5 versus NVDA [~33PE/32=1]. NVDA still wins as a better value by
the author’s definition; but it is much less so and the comparison would be
even narrower for other value/nonutility stocks. By the way, the growth, P/E,
and yield numbers all come from Value Line)
https://talkmarkets.com/content/stocks--equities/the-value-rotation-illusion?post=556691
Trying to explain the crypto winter.
News on Stocks in Our Portfolios
What
I am reading today
The Golden
Thread.
https://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2026/02/the-golden-thread.php
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