Investing for Survival

Thursday, November 12, 2026

The Morning Call---A new development in AI; and no, it isn't Jensen's resignation

The Morning Call

11/12/26

This week kicks off my annual fund raising drive that helps keep me working for you. Just go to the Donate button and enter the amount. Any monies will be appreciated.

The Market

Technical

Wednesday in the charts.

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/bond-vigilantes-away-stocks-will-play-neocloud-surge-erases-nasdaqs-post-election-losses?gift=eyJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiIsInR5cCI6IkpXVCJ9.eyJuaWQiOiIxMTMxOTQ0Iiwic2VuZGVyVWlkIjoiUUhnc3BaZVVFS2E3RHhXM216eFlKbjhaWEFoMiIsImlhdCI6MTc5NDQzMjAyMiwiZXhwIjoxNzk3MDI0MDIyLCJhdWQiOiJ6aC1naWZ0In0.ecTaJVvvJ1NOCQHFJJI8I9wZOUJS8489An50xKzIfnE

Wednesday in the technical stats.

https://www.barchart.com/stocks/momentum

https://www.barchart.com/stocks/market-performance

https://www.barchart.com/stocks/sectors/rankings

https://www.barchart.com/stocks/signals/new-recommendations

Buy the fear.

https://talkmarkets.com/article/buy-the-fear-sell-the-cheer

Silver specs have hardly ever been this short.

https://www.zerohedge.com/precious-metals/silver-specs-have-never-been-short-squeeze-finally-here?gift=eyJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiIsInR5cCI6IkpXVCJ9.eyJuaWQiOiIxMTMxOTM5Iiwic2VuZGVyVWlkIjoiUUhnc3BaZVVFS2E3RHhXM216eFlKbjhaWEFoMiIsImlhdCI6MTc5NDQzMTMxOSwiZXhwIjoxNzk3MDIzMzE5LCJhdWQiOiJ6aC1naWZ0In0.n9-rlUhIq-BWiWp_PuCNIQdxNAd8aj0BlR-moG3WmMw

Thursday morning setup: US futures are lower, led by a slide in Nasdaq contracts, after Nvidia's board started hunting for a replacement for Jensen Huang following reports of multiple extramarital affairs, including one with an alleged Chinese spy, turning the AI trade's central bank into its biggest single risk; meanwhile the haven bid sent long-end Treasuries higher and 30Y yields as low as 5.32%. As of 8:20am ET, S&P futures are down 0.7%, while Nasdaq futures are 1.5% lower; Dow futures are down 0.4% as money rotates out of tech. That follows a session in which the S&P rose 1.3% to 7,619 and the Philly semis index soared 5.7% as CoreWeave's results eased fears about AI spending, erasing the Nasdaq's post-midterm losses. Premarket, Nvidia is down 6-7% after sliding as much as 9% after hours, confirming our report from last night, while the rest of the Mag 7 is little changed and Nvidia's rivals are feasting on the carnage: AMD is up 4% and Broadcom 2.9%, while neoclouds and AI hardware names such as CoreWeave and Super Micro slump. The day's driver is Nvidia (and its HR department): the board is meeting to decide Huang's fate, is working with an outside firm to find candidates, and some directors favor CFO Colette Kress as interim CEO; Democratic senators want records on Nvidia chip exports to China preserved, days before Xi hosts Trump in Shenzhen. In rates, long-end Treasuries rose as cash trading resumed after the Veterans Day holiday, with the curve twisting flatter as the short end underperforms; the 10Y is flat near 4.99% and swaps still price 28bps of Fed hikes in December, i.e., a certain quarter-point move and a small chance of a jumbo half-point hike. The Bloomberg dollar index dipped 0.1% after touching its highest since May 2025, and the yen hovers just below 160 despite more jawboning from Tokyo. In commodities, oil slipped toward a two-month low near $86 WTI despite Iran saying two supertankers were halted by explosions in Hormuz, gold fell 1% to about $3,950 after failing to hold $4,000, and copper is lower; bitcoin is down 1% around $73,500. US economic data slate includes initial jobless claims (8:30am), October existing home sales (10am) and the October federal budget balance (2pm). Fed speaker slate includes Hammack (9am), Barr (10am), Goolsbee (11:15am), Daly (1:10pm), Schmid (1:30pm) and Williams (6:30pm). The Treasury sells $25 billion of 30-year bonds at 1pm.

https://cms.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/inline-images/ZH_Wrap_-_Markets_at_a_Glance_-_12_Nov_2026_1794489780207.jpg

Fundamental

Headlines

The Economy

Weekly initial jobless claims totaled 200,000 versus consensus of 195,000.

https://www.zerohedge.com/personal-finance/claims-57-year-lows-sentiment-near-record-lows-hires-rate-stuck-34-labor-markets

International

The preliminary Q3 UK GDP grew 0.7%, in line; September GDP was up 0.2% versus 0.0%; September industrial production increased 0.3% versus -0.3%; the September trade balance was -L5.13 billion versus -L1.6 billion; September construction orders were up 0.8% versus -0.1%.

Other

When rising interest rates signal economic strength.

https://hbr.org/2026/11/when-rising-interest-rates-signal-economic-strength-and-when-they-signal-risk

PCE deflator nowcasts.

https://econbrowser.com/archives/2026/11/the-whites-of-their-eyes

Current economic growth is being fueled almost entirely by the AI spend.

https://bonddad.blogspot.com/2026/11/leading-employment-indicators-real.html

Monetary Policy

Goldman expects third hike in March 2027.

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/goldman-now-expects-third-rate-hike-march-2027-followed-rate-cuts-starting-december-2027?gift=eyJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiIsInR5cCI6IkpXVCJ9.eyJuaWQiOiIxMTMxODk2Iiwic2VuZGVyVWlkIjoiUUhnc3BaZVVFS2E3RHhXM216eFlKbjhaWEFoMiIsImlhdCI6MTc5NDQyOTcyMywiZXhwIjoxNzk3MDIxNzIzLCJhdWQiOiJ6aC1naWZ0In0.CmojQhN3HIkmlzPf1FF-MY6VBQg5rFqQDI8HViSSEfQ

The Fed’s perpetual state of indecision.

https://www.wsj.com/economy/central-banking/fed-forced-to-confront-case-for-bigger-and-faster-rate-rises-ac181706?st=LrpL41&reflink=desktopwebshare_permalink

How the Fed is quietly generating more inflation.

https://talkmarkets.com/article/how-the-fed-is-quietly-generating-more-inflation-again

A new development in AI.

https://talkmarkets.com/article/the-ai-bubbles-biggest-weakness

Jensen resigns.

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/jensen-huang-resigns-ceo-nvidia-stock-plunges

Junk buyers have left the AI funding building.

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/who-funds-data-center-pipeline-now-junk-buyers-have-left-building?gift=eyJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiIsInR5cCI6IkpXVCJ9.eyJuaWQiOiIxMTMxOTg2Iiwic2VuZGVyVWlkIjoiUUhnc3BaZVVFS2E3RHhXM216eFlKbjhaWEFoMiIsImlhdCI6MTc5NDQ5MTMyMiwiZXhwIjoxNzk3MDgzMzIyLCJhdWQiOiJ6aC1naWZ0In0.g-_1mxc6y7tB7MyRs7HyzlhMWXa1lPRt-TCTDLvCKVs

Tariffs

The price of protectionists policies.

https://thedailyeconomy.org/article/voters-hated-tariffs-here-are-the-receipts/

US/China trade now above pre tariff war level.

https://politicalcalculations.blogspot.com/2026/11/us-china-trade-value-exceeds-pre-tariff.html

Investing

It’s called the tech bubble for a reason.

https://chartkidmatt.com/p/it-s-called-the-tech-bubble-for-a-reason

The latest from John Hussman.

https://www.advisorperspectives.com/commentaries/2026/11/11/free-money-bubble

Being wrong about gold.

https://www.wsj.com/finance/investing/im-always-wrong-about-gold-you-probably-are-too-2c6ac551?st=FrcCyE&reflink=desktopwebshare_permalink

News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

What I am reading today

The cruel irony of Veteran’s Day.

https://quoththeraven.substack.com/p/the-cruel-irony-of-veterans-day?r=1ng8jx&utm_campaign=post-expanded-share&utm_medium=web

We owe James K Polk a debt of gratitude.

https://www.realclearmarkets.com/articles/2026/11/11/we_owe_james_k_polk_gratitude_he_was_my_kind_of_guy_1216179.html

Visit Investing for Survival’s website (http://investingforsurvival.com/home) to learn more about our Investment Strategy, Prices Disciplines and Subscriber Service.

Wednesday, November 11, 2026

The Morning Call---Up or down?

The Morning Call

11/11/26

This week kicks off my annual fund raising drive that helps keep me working for you. Just go to the Donate button and enter the amount. I know many websites are free, but most include a premium membership that requires a subscription to access to the most informative articles. Subscriptions that I pay and provide my readers the content for free. Any monies will be appreciated---even as little as a dollar a week or a month will help.

The Market

Technical

Tuesday in the charts.

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/hot-cpi-hawkish-fedspeak-hammer-markets-bonds-stocks-bullion-battered-dollar-spikes?gift=eyJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiIsInR5cCI6IkpXVCJ9.eyJuaWQiOiIxMTMxNzc0Iiwic2VuZGVyVWlkIjoiUUhnc3BaZVVFS2E3RHhXM216eFlKbjhaWEFoMiIsImlhdCI6MTc5NDM0NTU2MywiZXhwIjoxNzk2OTM3NTYzLCJhdWQiOiJ6aC1naWZ0In0.n__RX9ROECFtwIyui1i62TecQQzYLgI5utQvPnPf_cI

Tuesday in the technical stats.

https://www.barchart.com/stocks/momentum

https://www.barchart.com/stocks/market-performance

https://www.barchart.com/stocks/sectors/rankings

https://www.barchart.com/stocks/signals/new-recommendations

Thoughts on Market direction after the sell off and bounce.

The real test lies ahead.

https://www.capitalspectator.com/stocks-rebound-but-the-real-test-lies-ahead/

The seduction of market bounces on the way down.

https://quoththeraven.substack.com/p/the-seduction-of-market-bounces-on?r=1ng8jx&utm_campaign=post-expanded-share&utm_medium=web

The problem with Monday’s meltup.

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/leaving-vapor-trails-nomuras-mcelligott-says-mondays-melt-was-vanna-machine-and-machine?gift=eyJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiIsInR5cCI6IkpXVCJ9.eyJuaWQiOiIxMTMxNzQ5Iiwic2VuZGVyVWlkIjoiUUhnc3BaZVVFS2E3RHhXM216eFlKbjhaWEFoMiIsImlhdCI6MTc5NDM0NjQ2NiwiZXhwIjoxNzk2OTM4NDY2LCJhdWQiOiJ6aC1naWZ0In0.o9P_Gnqln9tJM_QAw1uskCNXARdqI-r-gdTB4DqbY74

One last flush.

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/buy-rumor-sell-news-wilson-says-correction-needs-one-last-flush-7100-year-end-rally?gift=eyJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiIsInR5cCI6IkpXVCJ9.eyJuaWQiOiIxMTMxNzYwIiwic2VuZGVyVWlkIjoiUUhnc3BaZVVFS2E3RHhXM216eFlKbjhaWEFoMiIsImlhdCI6MTc5NDM0NzM5MywiZXhwIjoxNzk2OTM5MzkzLCJhdWQiOiJ6aC1naWZ0In0.5IIHN1nKp6VEh2ppJh3xx8P3V1k9bvHs2g9mHDuR6Tk

Is the puke finally over?

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/ai-puke-finally-over-jpmorgan-says-capitulation-far-along-and-tells-clients-buy?gift=eyJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiIsInR5cCI6IkpXVCJ9.eyJuaWQiOiIxMTMxNzM3Iiwic2VuZGVyVWlkIjoiUUhnc3BaZVVFS2E3RHhXM216eFlKbjhaWEFoMiIsImlhdCI6MTc5NDM0Nzk0MSwiZXhwIjoxNzk2OTM5OTQxLCJhdWQiOiJ6aC1naWZ0In0.rKndgd6wine8lV-UZgCyblXZTWxthXbjX-rk-neauDw

Wednesday morning setup: US futures are higher as a trifecta of AI catalysts, i) CoreWeave's beat-and-raise, ii) reports that Anthropic's bankers are weighing an IPO valuation of $1.5 trillion or more and iii) word that OpenAI's quarterly revenue hit $10 billion for the first time, revived the battered tech trade and helped markets shrug off Tuesday's hot CPI hangover, even as oil rebounded after Iran's IRGC claimed two tankers hit mines in the Strait of Hormuz; as a result Nasdaq futures have more than recouped Tuesday's losses while cash Treasuries, closed for Veterans Day, sit just shy of 5% on the 10Y. As of 8:15 am ET, S&P futures are up 0.9% while Nasdaq 100 futures rise 1.8% and Dow futures are up 0.2%. On Tuesday the S&P 500 recovered from its session low to close down just 0.4% at 7,521 after the hotter than expected CPI print and hawkish Fedspeak; without Nvidia and Microsoft it would have finished in the green. Premarket, semis are surging, with SOXX up 5.2% and DRAM up 8%, Nvidia is up 5.1% and the Mag 7 are mostly higher; CoreWeave jumps 13% after boosting its annual revenue forecast and easing fears about its debt-laden business (some of which we flagged last night), pushing Nebius and Marvell higher with it. The day's driver is AI (again): with hedge funds having cut risk at the steepest pace in more than a decade, positioning, not macro, is doing the heavy lifting for the tape, per Goldman's Rich Privorotsky. With the cash bond market shut, 10Y TSY futures are down about 6 ticks, indicating yields back over 5%, as Fed hike bets grow: a December 25bp hike is fully priced with some odds of 50bps, and Goldman added a third hike for March. The dollar is modestly firmer, with the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index up 0.1% and USD/JPY briefly topping 159 for the first time since late September. In commodities, Brent snapped a two-day losing streak, rising about 2% to above $93 on Iranian rhetoric, the Hormuz mine claims and a drone attack on Russia's Ust-Luga port; gold is up 0.4% to around $4,050 and silver jumps 2.7%. Bitcoin is a touch lower around $73,600. The US economic data slate is limited to MBA mortgage applications at 7am; there are no Fed speakers on the schedule. US stock markets are open, but the bond market is closed for Veterans Day.

https://cms.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/inline-images/ZH_Wrap_-_Markets_at_a_Glance_-_11_Nov_2026_1794401371789.jpg

Fundamental

Headlines

The Economy

Weekly mortgage applications rose 6.2% while purchase applications were up 7.5%.

Month to date retail chain store sales were up 10.1% versus +10.4% in the prior week.

International

October Japanese YoY machine tool orders were up 42.5% versus forecasts of +54.5%.

October German CPI fell 0.2%, in line.

Other

Inside yesterday’s CPI.

https://bonddad.blogspot.com/2026/11/october-cpi-another-hot-month-for.html

Iran

Iran throws a monkey wrench in the nuclear talks.

https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/iran-rejects-transferring-single-atom-enriched-uranium-its-territory

Fiscal Policy

Social Security deficit blows out.

https://wolfstreet.com/2026/11/09/social-security-deficit-blows-out-trust-fund-income-costs-deficits-and-interest-rates-in-fiscal-2026/

The Election

Tuesday, November 10, 2026

The Morning Call--Can AI withstand vertical integration?

The Morning Call

11/10/26

The Market

Technical

Monday in the charts.

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/huang-over-stocks-rip-oil-dips-after-weekend-fear-and-loathing?gift=eyJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiIsInR5cCI6IkpXVCJ9.eyJuaWQiOiIxMTMxNjEzIiwic2VuZGVyVWlkIjoiUUhnc3BaZVVFS2E3RHhXM216eFlKbjhaWEFoMiIsImlhdCI6MTc5NDI2MDQwNSwiZXhwIjoxNzk2ODUyNDA1LCJhdWQiOiJ6aC1naWZ0In0.MddaUj3MWUW3eQdNh_FutarAyTpdFtkKvjW4ZrvmSjY

Monday in the technical stats.

https://www.barchart.com/stocks/momentum

https://www.barchart.com/stocks/market-performance

https://www.barchart.com/stocks/sectors/rankings

https://www.barchart.com/stocks/signals/new-recommendations

Barry Ritholtz’s thoughts on the sell off.

https://ritholtz.com/2026/11/thoughts-on-the-selloff/

Lance Roberts near term outlook for the Markets.

https://talkmarkets.com/article/midterm-election-goes-blue-what-happens-with-markets-now

Dirt cheap AI.

https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/dirt-cheap-ai-opportunity-nobody-wants-touch?gift=eyJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiIsInR5cCI6IkpXVCJ9.eyJuaWQiOiIxMTMxNzE3Iiwic2VuZGVyVWlkIjoiUUhnc3BaZVVFS2E3RHhXM216eFlKbjhaWEFoMiIsImlhdCI6MTc5NDMxOTQwOSwiZXhwIjoxNzk2OTExNDA5LCJhdWQiOiJ6aC1naWZ0In0.fTf3FzSKUDIBNJWD49wDzxmgt4jO4Iav7i8jT7bc_A4

Outlook for gold.

https://talkmarkets.com/article/why-gold-miners-rose-on-golds-down-day

Tuesday morning setup: US futures are flat as a Waller hawkish curveball, hours before the October CPI report, took the air out of Wall Street's best session in six months, while oil extended its slide on US-Iran diplomacy hopes and the Claude-maker Anthropic lined up what could be the biggest IPO ever; as a result the 2Y yield jumped 5bps to 4.61% and a December rate hike is now fully priced. As of 6:25am ET, S&P futures are up 0.1% at around 7,578 while Nasdaq futures are down 0.2% and Dow futures rise 0.4%. That follows a session in which the S&P soared 2.35% to 7,550, its best day since the April Iran ceasefire, the Nasdaq 100 jumped 3.4% and the SOX exploded 6.85% even as Nvidia slid 4.3%, the only decliner in the chip index. In premarket trading, the Mag 7 is mixed: Nvidia is up 0.6% and Alphabet gains 1% even as the Megaspeed scandal widens, confirming our article from yesterday, while memory, semis and software are lower; Sanmina and Aaon soar about 20% on strong guidance, while Groupon tumbles 20% and Rocket Lab drops 6% on a wider loss. The day's driver is the Fed (again): Governor Waller said he backs a December hike and would consider a half-point move if core CPI prints around 0.3% or higher, which pushed odds of a 25bp hike from just over 80% to above 99%. Treasuries fell to session lows on the comments, with the 2Y up 5bps at 4.61% and the 10Y little changed around 4.86%, twisting the curve flatter, while bunds and gilts held onto early gains as energy prices slid. The dollar erased an early drop after Waller, with risk-sensitive currencies such as the krone and Aussie lagging. In commodities, Brent briefly slipped below $90 for the first time since August after Trump said further strikes on Iran would not be necessary, gold is down 1.5% to about $4,077, silver drops 1.9% and copper is softer. Bitcoin is down about 1%, trading near $74,000. US economic data slate includes October CPI (8:30am; no year-on-year figures this time due to the 2025 shutdown) and weekly ADP employment (8:15am); NFIB small business optimism already printed at 97.8, below the 98.2 estimate. Fed speaker slate includes Logan (10:50am), Schmid (1:30pm), Bowman (3:30pm) and Paulson (6:30pm). The Treasury sells $42 billion of 10-year notes at 1pm; the US bond market is closed on Wednesday for Veterans Day.

https://cms.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/inline-images/ZH_Wrap_-_Markets_at_a_Glance_-_10_Nov_2026_1794316081499.jpg

Fundamental

Headlines

The Economy

The October small business optimism index came in at 97.8 versus estimates of 97.7.

October CPI was +0.4% versus predictions of +0.3%; core CPI was +0.3% versus +0.2%.

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/cpi-prints-hotter-expected-rate-hike-odds-soar-waller-sparks-hawkish-panic

International

September Japanese household spending fell 2.8% versus consensus of +0.3%.

The October Chinese trade balance was +$105.3 billion versus expectations of +$125.8 billion.

Other

Q4 nowcasts look strong.

https://www.capitalspectator.com/gdp-nowcasts-signal-strong-finish-to-2026/

Labor’s share of output.

https://wolfstreet.com/2026/11/09/labors-share-of-output-structural-shifts-in-the-us-economy-driven-by-technology/

Fiscal Policy

The inexorable growth in national debt.

https://www.advisorperspectives.com/commentaries/2026/11/09/debt-not-proud

Stocks are crashing but earnings aren’t.

https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/ai-crash-has-problem-earnings-arent-crashing?gift=eyJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiIsInR5cCI6IkpXVCJ9.eyJuaWQiOiIxMTMxNTUxIiwic2VuZGVyVWlkIjoiUUhnc3BaZVVFS2E3RHhXM216eFlKbjhaWEFoMiIsImlhdCI6MTc5NDIzNTg5MSwiZXhwIjoxNzk2ODI3ODkxLCJhdWQiOiJ6aC1naWZ0In0.NvEqPHS_kYQ22y72tjAK-56HgsnH2ZQu5f6GuTGyFMw

Is this the end of the AI trade?

https://www.riskhedge.com

Can AI withstand vertical integration?

https://giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/actions/redeem/0e7b4775-a511-46b6-a1fa-2532a11b7131

The Financial System

Private credit poses risks to the financial system and personal savings.

https://www.americanprogress.org/article/private-credit-poses-risks-to-americans-savings-and-the-financial-system/

Investing

A word of caution on crypto.

https://quoththeraven.substack.com/p/watch-crypto-for-the-next-black-swan?r=1ng8jx&utm_campaign=post-expanded-share&utm_medium=web

The trend in equities held by households.

https://econbrowser.com/archives/2026/11/equities-held-by-households-2000-and-now

Secular bull and bear market trends.

https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2026/11/06/secular-bull-and-bear-market-trends-october-2026

Which is the better investment, your house or the stock market?

https://www.wsj.com/finance/investing/home-vs-stock-market-investment-6783607f?st=cfygtc&reflink=desktopwebshare_permalink

Which is the better investment, an index fund or an actively managed fund?

https://www.morningstar.com/funds/trick-or-treat-index-funds-beat-their-benchmarks-more-often-than-active-funds-over-past-decade?utm_medium=referral&utm_campaign=linkshare&utm_source=link

News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

What I am reading today

Visit Investing for Survival’s website (http://investingforsurvival.com/home) to learn more about our Investment Strategy, Prices Disciplines and Subscriber Service.

Thursday, November 12, 2026

The Morning Call---A new development in AI; and no, it isn't Jensen's resignation

Wednesday, November 11, 2026

The Morning Call---Up or down?

Tuesday, November 10, 2026

The Morning Call--Can AI withstand vertical integration?

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