The Morning Call
7/24/26
The
Market
Technical
Thursday in the
charts.
Thursday in the
technical stats.
https://www.barchart.com/stocks/momentum
https://www.barchart.com/stocks/market-performance
https://www.barchart.com/stocks/sectors/rankings
https://www.barchart.com/stocks/signals/new-recommendations
Friday morning
setup: US equity futures are seeing a modest rebound after posting
their biggest drop this month, as Brent crude dropped back under $100 a
barrel, and bond yields and rate hike odds - which track the price of oil one
to one - halted their ascent. As of 6:00am ET, S&P 500 futures
rose 0.3%, with the index still on track for its first back-to-back weekly loss
since the early stages of the Iran war. Tech stocks remained under pressure as
South Korea’s memory and Japanese chip giants were pummeled. Treasury yields
hovered just below their highest levels this year, while Brent fell more than
3% toward $97 a barrel. Traders are moving cautiously after a week in which
stocks and bonds were rattled by the intensifying war in Iran, soaring oil
prices and fresh concerns over whether massive investments in AI will pay off.
Investors are now bracing for a weekend that could bring further escalation in
the Middle East, ahead of a stack of earnings from AI hyperscalers next week.
Michael Hewson,
analyst at iForex, said he was surprised by how well markets are holding up
despite the sharp increase in oil prices. As for earnings, “next
week is a really big week and it could be make-or-break in terms of where
markets go next,” he said. “There’s an awful lot more nervousness now about
capex, particularly when you’re talking about AI and where’s the return on
investment coming.” To be sure, investors are contending with a growing wall of
worry over AI spending, rising competition from Chinese frontier models, and
increasingly crowded positioning. Amid soaring Chinese competition with open
models which some accuse of being offered at dumping prices, the cost
of tokens has tumbled and erased the entire recent "agentic"
surge; not surprisingly, stock prices of hyperscalers have followed suit.
Fundamental
Headlines
The
Economy
US
June building permits fell 2.1% versus consensus
of -3.0%.
The
July Kansas City Fed manufacturing index was reported at 17 versus projections
of 11.
International
June Japanese CPI
was up 0.3% versus estimates of +0.2%; the July flash manufacturing PMI was 54.7
versus 54.5; the flash services PMI was 51.9 versus 53.0; the flash composite
PMI was 53.1 versus 52.8.
June
UK retail sales were up 1.0% versus expectations of -0.3%: ex fuel, they were
up 1.1% versus -0.4%; the July consumer confidence index was -17 versus -21: the July flash
manufacturing PMI was 52.8 versus 52.0; the flash
services PMI was 51.8 versus 49.4; the flash composite PMI was 52.1 versus 49.7.
The July EU flash
consumer confidence index was -15.9 versus -16.8; the July flash manufacturing
PMI was 52.0 versus 51.5; the flash services PMI
was 51.6 versus 49.8; the flash composite PMI was 51.9 versus 50.3.
The
July flash German manufacturing PMI was 52.2 versus forecasts of 50.5; the flash services
PMI was 49.6 versus 49.0; the flash composite PMI was 51.2 versus 49.8.
Other
How useful is the University of Michigan
consumer sentiment survey?
https://politicalcalculations.blogspot.com/2026/07/less-than-useful-data-michigan-consumer.html
Mortgage rates are the highest in a year.
Yesterday’s jobless claims number was near
historic lows.
https://bonddad.blogspot.com/2026/07/the-no-fire-economy-sets-new-55-year.html
Iran
Overnight news.
The chokepoint risk.
https://www.apollo.com/wealth/insights-news/insights/daily-spark/The-Chokepoint-Risk
Fiscal
Policy
Questions to ask your senate candidate.
Whatever we do, don’t let congress reform
social security.
Lessons that we
can learn from the UK. (there is a little too much politics in this piece, in
my opinion. But there is also some good
points)
https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/the-uk-is-a-cautionary-tale-for-the
Investing
How instructive is
the equity risk premium?
https://www.morningstar.com/financial-advisors/is-equity-risk-premium-dead
Space is the next
internet.
https://issuesinsights.com/2026/07/22/space-isnt-the-next-tulip-mania-its-the-next-internet/
Update in valuations.
A shift in market
leadership.
https://www.advisorperspectives.com/commentaries/2026/07/23/shift-stock-market-leadership
Has bitcoin
finally bottomed?
Costly mistakes.
https://ritholtz.com/2026/07/vanguard-costliest-mistakes/
The most fundamental macro risk is back.
Thoughts from a
bear.
News on Stocks in Our Portfolios
What
I am reading today
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