The Morning Call
8/21/26
The
Market
Technical
Thursday in the
charts.
Thursday in the
technical stats.
https://www.barchart.com/stocks/momentum
https://www.barchart.com/stocks/market-performance
https://www.barchart.com/stocks/sectors/rankings
https://www.barchart.com/stocks/signals/new-recommendations
Friday morning
setup: US futures rebound from Thursday's slump, and trade at session highs
on. As of 8:15am ET, S&P 500 futures were 0.4% higher with Nasdaq 100
contracts up 0.6%, while Bitcoin headed for its best week in more than three
years, rising just shy of $80,000 before reversing. S&P 500 futures
jerked higher and yields extended declines as oil edged lower shortly after 7am
ET on this headline: *IRAN’S PRESIDENT SAYS BETTER TO END WAR TODAY
WITH DIGNITY:ISNA, and while the market erroneously viewed this as a
sign of de-escalation, he has made many similar comments in the past. Among
Iranian officials, Pezeshkian has long been one of the most vocal proponents of
ending the war with the US through diplomacy. In any case, tech is again making
headlines, with Broadcom in talks with lenders to raise as much as
$100 billion in an off balance sheet SPV financing deal that would benefit
Anthropic and other companies. Pre-market, Mag 7 are all higher led by
META (+0.9%) and TSLA (+1.1%). Today is the monthly option expiration day so
expect low volume volatility around key pin levels. TSY yields are down 1-2bps
across the curve although the 10Y remains just around 4.70%. The slide in
the greenback is continuing, with the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index down 0.3% and
at a three-month low. Commodities are mixed: base metals ad ags are all lower,
while gold is 1.6% higher this morning; oil is unchanged. Overall, the
overnight news flow was mostly quite as investors are waiting for today’s
Global PMI release. Today's US economic data calendar includes Bloomberg US
economic survey for August, and S&P Global US manufacturing, services and
composite PMIs. No Fed speakers are scheduled for the session
Fundamental
Headlines
The
Economy
US
International
The July Japanese CPI
rose 0.4% versus forecasts of +0.1%.
July UK retail
sales fell 0.5%, in line; ex fuel, they declined 0.9%
versus -0.5%.
The August flash
Japanese manufacturing PMI came in at 55.1, in line; the flash services PMI was
52.3 versus 51.5; the flash composite PMI was 53.4 versus 52.8; the August
flash German manufacturing PMI was 54.1 versus 52.0; the flash services PMI was
48.5 versus 50.1; the flash composite PMI was 51.0 versus 51.3; the August
flash EU manufacturing PMI was 52.8 versus 51.8; the flash services PMI was 51.7
versus 51.5; the flash composite PMI was 52.0 versus 51.7; the August flash UK
manufacturing PMI was 51.5, in line; the flash services PMI was 52.8 versus 51.8;
the flash composite PMI was 52.5 versus 51.6;
Other
Real wages aren’t keeping up with inflation.
But
employment remains strong.
https://bonddad.blogspot.com/2026/08/some-day-positive-trend-in-unemployment.html
Iran
Overnight news.
Fiscal
Policy
US debt hits $40 trillion.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/doom-loop-engaged-us-debt-hits-40-trillion-america-enters-endgame
Bessent’s band-aid fix.
JP Morgan agrees.
So does Goldman.
Losing
the long end is a nonstarter.
Inflation
The impact of Super El Nino.
https://www.zerohedge.com/commodities/anchovies-and-blueberries-why-el-nino-matters
AI
Are
the hyperscalers toast?
https://klementoninvesting.substack.com/p/if-this-is-true-the-hyperscalers
Counterpoint.
The AI buildout
needs a lot of money.
Just ask Broadcom.
Tariffs
Trump, Canada, Mexico and tariffs.
Investing
Few bears left.
The maturation of the high yield junk bond
market.
https://mailchi.mp/verdadcap/the-maturation-of-high-yield?e=c416b31325
News (not Buy recommendations) on Stocks in
Our Portfolios
Merck
Microsoft
What
I am reading today
The
changing world order.
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