The Morning Call---Hormuz closure math

 

The Morning Call

 

3/6/26

 

The Market

         

    Technical

 

            Thursday in the charts.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/stocks-slammed-below-key-support-oil-yields-soar

 

Note: Another volatile day. Intraday, the S&P pushed back below its 100 DMA,

then recovered and closed right on it. That is the good news. The bad news is that the index has now made a second lower high and an initial lower low---hinting at potential direction (down). Still that is not enough to convince me that we are going lower. Patience (do nothing).

 

            Thursday in the technical stats.

            https://www.barchart.com/stocks/momentum

            https://www.barchart.com/stocks/market-performance

            https://www.barchart.com/stocks/sectors/rankings

            https://www.barchart.com/stocks/signals/new-recommendations

 

            Gold tumbles on strong dollar and higher Treasury yields.

            https://talkmarkets.com/article/gold-tumbles-below-5100-on-strong-us-dollar-treasury-yields-1772734955

 

            Gold is stuck.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/gold-stuck-oil-panic-real-crisis-trade

 

            What is going on beneath the surface.

            The ETF Portfolio Strategist: 06 MAR 2026

 

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

 

January retail sales fell 0.2% versus estimates of -0.3%; ex autos, they were unchanged as anticipated.

 

February nonfarm payroll declined 92,000 versus projections of +59,000; the unemployment rate was 4.4% versus 4.3%.

 

                        International

 

Q4 EU (3^rd est.) GDP grew 0.2% versus consensus of +0.3%; unemployment was up 0.2%, in line.

 

The February UK home price index rose 0.3%, in line.

 

                        Other

           

                          Lower jobless claims---a good sign.

                          https://bonddad.blogspot.com/2026/03/new-regime-of-lower-jobless-claims.html

 

            Iran

 

              The Gulf States dilemma over Iran.

  https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2026-03-05/iran-war-is-forcing-gulf-states-to-choose-fight-or-don-t-fight?srnd=homepage-americas&sref=loFkkPMQ

 

              Hormuz closure math.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/jpmorgans-new-hormuz-closure-math-just-3-days-until-total-commodity-chaos

 

              Qatar’s energy minister offers dire warning.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/energy/will-bring-down-global-economy-qatars-energy-minister-offers-dire-warning-about-hormuz

 

              Iran’s chaos war strategy.

              Straitjacket: Iran's Chaos War Strategy

 

            Inflation

 

              Companies reporting raging inflation.

              https://wolfstreet.com/2026/03/05/companies-report-raging-inflation-except-in-wages-rents/

 

              The outlook for inflation doesn’t look good.

              The Inflation Outlook Doesn’t Look Good - Carson Group

           

            Affordability

 

              Update on housing affordability.

              https://politicalcalculations.blogspot.com/2026/03/cost-of-typical-new-homes-sold-in-us.html

 

            The Financial System

 

              Blackrock marks down another private credit loan to zero.

  https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-03-05/blackrock-slashes-another-private-loan-value-from-100-to-zero?srnd=homepage-americas&sref=loFkkPMQ

 

 

            Tariffs

 

              Trade Court orders government to refund tariffs.

              https://mishtalk.com/economics/trade-court-orders-trump-to-refund-130-billion-in-tariffs/

 

     Investing

 

            How markets react to geopolitical events.

            https://www.lpl.com/research/blog/iran-escalation-how-markets-have-reacted-to-geopolitical-events.html

 

            Counterpoint.

            https://www.morningstar.com/markets/what-if-iran-war-is-not-short-lived

 

            Versus how sentiment reacts to geopolitical events.

            https://econbrowser.com/archives/2026/03/will-consumer-sentiment-take-a-hit

 

            If you are near retirement, maybe you should sell some stock.

            https://www.morningstar.com/personal-finance/maybe-you-should-sell-some-stocks

 

            Stick to what you know.

            https://behaviouralinvestment.com/2026/03/04/stick-to-what-you-know/

           

            How to prepare for a recession.

            https://www.advisorperspectives.com/commentaries/2026/03/05/how-prepare-recession-7-tips

 

            Stocks tumble on US plans to license chip exports.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/stocks-tumble-report-us-plans-licenses-global-chip-exports

 

            The ‘everybody loses’ scenario.

            The ‘everybody loses’ scenario: Why the Iran conflict is breaking this classic portfolio strategy - MarketWatch

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

 

 

What I am reading today

 

           

 

 

Visit Investing for Survival’s website (http://investingforsurvival.com/home) to learn more about our Investment Strategy, Prices Disciplines and Subscriber Service.

 

 

 

The Morning Call---The K shaped economy: the narrative versus the reality

 

The Morning Call

 

3/5/25

 

The Market

         

    Technical

 

            Wednesday in the charts.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/stocks-software-soar-oil-snores-traders-forget-about-war

 

Note: another perplexing performance (at least for me) from the stock market. The S&P is back above its 100 DMA, keeping that narrow (ing) trading range intact. My bottom line hasn’t changed---do nothing until the Market gives us some direction.

           

            Wednesday in the technical stats.

            https://www.barchart.com/stocks/momentum

            https://www.barchart.com/stocks/market-performance

            https://www.barchart.com/stocks/sectors/rankings

            https://www.barchart.com/stocks/signals/new-recommendations

 

            Bond volatility just woke up.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/bond-volatility-just-woke-stocks-usually-dont-it

 

            The Street is massively long semis and massively short software.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/wall-street-massively-long-semis-and-massively-short-software

 

            Citadel desk turns positive.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/bear-camp-has-become-too-popular-citadels-rubner-turns-bullish-gives-10-reasons-why

           

            Gold down on proposed sale by Poland.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/precious-metals/precious-metals-plunge-poland-weigjs-gold-sales-fund-defense

 

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

 

Weekly initial jobless claims totaled 213,000 versus projections of 215,000.

https://www.zerohedge.com/personal-finance/no-hire-no-fire-economy-rolls-job-cuts-plunge-jobless-claims-hover-near-multi-year

 

Q4 nonfarm productivity rose 2.8% versus estimates of 1.9%; unit labor costs were up 2.8% versus +2.0%

 

The February services PMI was 51.7 versus expectations of 52.3; the February composite PMI was 51.9 versus 52.3.

 

The February ISM services index was 56.1 versus consensus of 53.5.

                               https://bonddad.blogspot.com/2026/03/strongly-positive-ism-services-report.html

 

                        International

 

                          January EU retail sales were down 0.1% versus predictions of +0.3%.

 

The February EU construction PMI came in at 46.0 versus forecasts of 45.9; the February German construction PMI was 43.7 versus 45.4; the February UK construction PMI was 44.5 versus 47.0.

 

                        Other

 

            Iran

 

              The Iran war’s most precious commodity is not oil.

              https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2026-03-04/iran-war-the-most-precious-commodity-is-water-not-oil?sref=loFkkPMQ

 

              How long will soaring energy prices last?

              https://www.capitalspectator.com/energy-prices-are-soaring-how-long-will-it-last/#more-25352

 

              Why isn’t oil $100 a barrel?

              https://www.ft.com/content/1ca535f4-d4a6-480b-b2da-f5b05ad8dd5d

 

              Qatar declares force majeure.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/energy/qatarenergy-declares-force-majeure-one-fifth-global-lng-supply-goes-dark

           

              Rumor that Iran was willing to give up nuclear stockpile.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/futs-jump-old-news-recirculated-about-irans-willingness-give-uranium-stockpile

 

            Inflation

 

              The Strait of Hormuz, energy and inflation.

              https://www.apolloacademy.com/strait-of-hormuz-energy-demand-and-supply/

 

            Recession

 

              The K shaped economy: the narrative versus the reality.

              https://www.axios.com/2026/02/26/us-economy-stock-market

 

            Tariffs

 

              Bessent says Trump likely to raise tariffs to the 15% level this week.

  https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-03-04/bessent-says-trump-s-tariff-hike-to-15-likely-coming-this-week?srnd=homepage-americas&sref=loFkkPMQ

 

 

                        AI

 

              More thoughts on the future of AI.

              Some Guesses about AI in 2026 - by Arnold Kling

                       

 

            The Financial System

 

              Big lenders risky loans are rattling Wall Street.

              https://www.nytimes.com/2026/03/03/business/private-credit-crisis-blue-owl-capital.html

           

 

     Investing

 

            Rotation into hard assets.

            https://www.gspublishing.com/content/research/en/reports/2026/02/08/531d73dd-fd3f-4647-9841-46e2261e4f4c.pdf

 

            Update on valuation.

            https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2026/03/04/market-valuation-is-the-market-still-overvalued

 

            Incorporating dividend yield into your investment strategy.

            https://www.advisorperspectives.com/commentaries/2026/03/04/lpl-research-thinks-dividends

           

            Ten rules for dealing with uncertainty.

            https://awealthofcommonsense.com/2026/03/10-rules-for-dealing-with-uncertainty/

 

            The tokenization of gold.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/gold-digital-asset-space-are-increasingly-interlinked-goldman

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

 

 

What I am reading today

 

           

 

 

Visit Investing for Survival’s website (http://investingforsurvival.com/home) to learn more about our Investment Strategy, Prices Disciplines and Subscriber Service.

 

 

 

The Morning Call--How high do oil prices have to go to create a recession?

 

The Morning Call

 

3/4/26

 

The Market

         

    Technical

 

            Before the open.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/hedge-fund-bloodbath-biggest-crash-liberation-day-here-are-3-biggest-risks

 

            Tuesday in the charts.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/everyone-getting-pounded

 

Note: a rough day in stock land, though the late afternoon proposal by Trump to provide insurance to ships transiting the Hormuz Straits kept prices off the bottom of the day’s trading range. Nonetheless, the S&P did close below the lower boundary of that ever tightening gap between the 100 DMA (~6834) and the all-time high (~6924)---but not by much. Givern that it has tested the 100 DMA and bounced on three prior occasions, I don’t think that one day’s negative pin action is sufficient to get beared up just yet. Though clearly any negative follow through would likely spell much lower prices---the next visible support level being the 200 DMA (~6569).

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/weve-broken-box-these-are-key-levels-watch-stocks-slump

 

                Tuesday in the technical stats.

            https://www.barchart.com/stocks/momentum

            https://www.barchart.com/stocks/market-performance

            https://www.barchart.com/stocks/sectors/rankings

            https://www.barchart.com/stocks/signals/new-recommendations

 

            The Market performance following the first cannon shot.

https://www.riskhedge.com/outplacement/update-from-Abu-Dhabi/rcm?utm_campaign=RH-144&utm_content=RH144OP870&utm_medium=ED&utm_source=rcm

 

            Keep an eye on the dispersion trade.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/dispersion-trade-unwind-fastest-route-higher-index-vol

 

            Volatility shock.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/volatility-shock-panic-spreading

 

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

 

Weekly mortgage applications were up 11% while purchase applications were up 6.1%.

 

The February ADP employment change report showed job increases of 63,000 versus consensus of 50,000.

 

                        International

 

The January EU unemployment rate was 6.1% versus predictions of 6.2%; January PPI was up 0.7% versus +0.2%.

 

The February Japanese services PMI came in at 53.8, in line; the February composite PMI was 53.9 versus 53.8; the February Chinese manufacturing PMI was 49.0 versus 49.1; the February services PMI was 49.5 versus 49.8; the February composite PMI was 49.5 versus 50.2; the February German services PMI was 53.5 versus 53.4; the February composite PMI was 53.2 versus 53.1; the February EU services PMI was 51.9 versus 51.8; the February composite PMI was 51.9, in line; the February UK services PMI was 53.9, in line; the February composite PMI was 53.7 versus 53.9.

 

                        Other

 

                          January median household income.

                          https://politicalcalculations.blogspot.com/2026/03/median-household-income-in-january-2026.html

 

            Iran

 

              Vessel struck in Straits of Hormuz.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/unknown-projectile-strikes-container-ship-strait-hormuz-maritime-crisis-explodes

 

            Inflation

 

              Iran, oil prices and inflation.

              https://www.nytimes.com/2026/03/03/business/us-iran-israel-economic-fallout.html

 

            Recession

 

              How high do oil prices need to go to create a recession?

              https://bonddad.blogspot.com/2026/03/the-potential-of-us-war-with-iran-for.html

 

            AI

 

              SaaS; Is there opportunity in destruction?

              https://talkmarkets.com/article/saas-is-there-opportunity-in-the-destruction-1772463015

 

              AI’s impact on interest rates.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/citadel-warns-ai-will-displace-feds-view-neutral

 

            Tariffs

 

The price we pay for tariffs. I have noted several times that I believe that there are some perfectly valid reasons for using tariffs as a political tool (Chinese theft of US intellectual property; EU not paying its way for its defense). But as an all-encompassing strategy designed to raise vast amounts of money, it has been a failure.

              https://www.realclearmarkets.com/articles/2026/03/03/will_another_wave_of_tariff_uncertainty_hold_economy_back_1167562.html

 

            The Dollar

 

              The dollar reclaims its safe haven role.

                          https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-03-03/dollar-set-for-biggest-surge-in-a-year-as-inflation-fears-mount?srnd=homepage-americas&sref=loFkkPMQ

 

     Investing

 

            Keep calm and carry on.

            https://alhambrapartners.com/weekly-market-pulse-keep-calm-and-carry-on/?src=news

 

            The long term benefit to exploiting myopia.

            https://alphaarchitect.com/long-term-investing/

 

            More on valuation.

            https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2026/03/03/regression-to-trend-s-p-composite-196-above-trend-in-february

 

            Three red flags that you can’t ignore.

            https://talkmarkets.com/article/three-red-flags-you-cant-ignore-why-this-bull-market-may-be-over-1772561215

 

            Near term risks are elevated.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/grand-old-man-strategy-warns-near-term-risks-are-more-elevated

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

 

 

What I am reading today

 

           

 

 

Visit Investing for Survival’s website (http://investingforsurvival.com/home) to learn more about our Investment Strategy, Prices Disciplines and Subscriber Service.