An Analysis of Daily Events that Impact Your Money
Thursday, November 5, 2026
The Morning Call--What is next for data centers?
The Morning Call
11/5/26
The
Market
Technical
Wednesday in the
charts.
Note: the good
news is that the S&P (1) bounced off the lower boundary of the trading
range from August, (2) closed above its 100 DMA, reestablishing it as support
and (3) closed that overhead gap down open. The bad news is that it (1) created
a gap up open and (2) challenged its 50 DMA and failed. I know lots of analysts
sound jiggy and believe yesterday’s pin action opens the door for the year end
rally. But failing at the 50 DMA and not yet making a new higher high (within
the current trading range) remains a problem. I need more follow through. If we
get it, I will likely add to my dividend growth ETF trade,
Wednesday in the
technical stats.
https://www.barchart.com/stocks/momentum
https://www.barchart.com/stocks/market-performance
https://www.barchart.com/stocks/sectors/rankings
https://www.barchart.com/stocks/signals/new-recommendations
The AI trade is
breaking apart.
We have never seen
this before.
https://www.bespokepremium.com/interactive/posts/think-big-blog/youve-never-seen-this-before
Thursday morning
setup: US futures are mixed, with the Nasdaq lagging as the post-midterm
rotation out of chipmakers and the AI complex enters a second day, after the
Democratic sweep raised fears of a data center backlash, Qualcomm tumbled on a
weak forecast and the Kospi crashed almost 6%, while oil rebounded modestly
from Wednesday's plunge and the BoE hiked rates for the first time in three
years; as a result the 10Y yield touched 4.83%, the lowest since Sept. 10. As
of 6:20am ET, S&P futures are 0.1% higher while Nasdaq futures are down
0.5%, Russell 2000 futures add 0.4% and Dow futures are [x%]; this follows
Wednesday's session when the S&P jumped 1.6% for its best day since August
and the Dow soared 3%. In premarket trading, semis are again getting hit (the
SOXX ETF was down 2% premarket per Bloomberg) with Qualcomm sliding 10% after a
lackluster forecast, continuing
the hyperscalers vs semis split we flagged yesterday, while the Mag 7 is
mixed with Amazon and Meta higher and Tesla and Nvidia lower; AppLovin soars
16% on blowout guidance. The day's driver is the blue wave (again): with
Democrats set to control both chambers, traders are pricing tighter regulation
of data centers (Goldman's Alec Phillips sees moratoria potentially hitting about
45% of planned US data centre capacity expansion), a quicker end to the
Iran war and less fiscal largesse, which is why hyperscalers that own compute
are bid and everything that builds, powers or supplies it is offered.
Treasuries are extending their rally, with the 10Y at 4.87% after earlier
touching 4.83%, as the midterm result fuels expectations that the
administration's tax and spending plans will be contained and after the
Treasury's refunding hinted at less long-end issuance. The dollar is flat after
its worst day in two months, cable erased losses after the BoE hiked 25bps to
4% in an 8-1 vote (Mann wanted 50bps) and Bailey warned it was unlikely to be
the last hike unless the Iran war is resolved. In commodities, Brent rebounds
1.6% to $96.15 after crashing almost 9% on Wednesday, as Iran claims tankers
hit mines near Hormuz and Ukraine struck Russia's Ryazan refinery; gold extends
its post-midterm rally above $4,100 and silver trades around $52.7. Bitcoin is
little changed. US economic data slate includes Challenger job cuts (already
out: 43,994 in October, down 71.3% y/y), initial jobless claims, Q3 nonfarm
productivity and unit labor costs (all 8:30am ET). Fed speaker slate includes
Hammack (8:50am), Barkin (9:10am) and Logan (7:00pm). The Treasury sells $115bn
of 4-week and $110bn of 8-week bills at 11:30am.
Fundamental
Headlines
The
Economy
US
Weekly jobless claims totaled 189,000 versus
estimates of 196,000.
Q3
nonfarm productivity rose 3.6% versus projections of +2.8%; unit labor costs
fell 0.7% versus +0.6%.
The September
trade balance was -$105 billion versus consensus of -$108 billion.
The October
services PMI came in at 56.1 versus expectations of 57.9; the October composite
PMI was 55.9 versus 57.6.
October light vehicle
sales totaled 15.5 million units versus forecasts of 15.9 million.
The latest Atlanta
Fed Q4 GDP nowcast was growth of 3.4%.
International
September German
factory orders were up 4.4% versus predictions of 4.8%.
The September EU PPI was up 2.5%, in line.
The October EU
construction PMI was 42.5 versus estimates of 44.0; the October German construction
PMI was 41.6 versus 44.0; the October UK construction PMI was 43.6 versus 46.1.
Other
Interest rates---higher for longer.
The
Election
What changes (and doesn’t)?
What the dem’s win means for the Markets.
https://www.capitalspectator.com/what-democrats-midterm-win-means-for-markets/
AI
What is next for data centers?
Tariffs
Undoing Trump’s
tariff fiasco.
Tech
accounts for 2/3rds of the US trade deficit.
https://talkmarkets.com/article/tech-now-accounts-for-two-thirds-of-the-us-trade-deficit
Investing
Reviewing Q3 earnings.
https://www.carsongroup.com/insights/blog/earnings-check-in-following-the-money/
How to turn your
cash into wealth.
Record fixed
income inflows.
What credit spreads are telling us.
https://talkmarkets.com/article/credit-spreads-calm-on-the-surface-concern-at-the-bottom
The value of having
a ‘stop loss’ discipline. The theme of the article is right on. However, in
deciding on whether to have an actual stop loss versus a mental one consider
this. The market maker sees your order as well as everyone else’s. If a stock
is declining and the market maker sees a number of stop loss orders and feels
like those orders are near a trading low, he can manipulate the ‘at the market’
sell orders down to a level that triggers your stop loss. Then he buys the
stock for his own book and sells it at a higher price. So, my recommendation is
to have a mental stop and the balls to stick with it.
https://talkmarkets.com/article/are-you-your-own-worst-enemy
News on Stocks in Our Portfolios
What
I am reading today
Visit Investing
for Survival’s website (http://investingforsurvival.com/home)
to learn more about our Investment Strategy, Prices Disciplines and Subscriber
Service.
Wednesday, November 4, 2026
The Morning Call---Capitulation?
The Morning Call
11/4/26
The
Market
Technical
Tuesday in the
charts.
Capitulation?
Tuesday in the
technical stats.
https://www.barchart.com/stocks/momentum
https://www.barchart.com/stocks/market-performance
https://www.barchart.com/stocks/sectors/rankings
https://www.barchart.com/stocks/signals/new-recommendations
The AI boom is
hiding something very ugly.
Debt limits are
real and binding.
Wall Street’s most
hated stocks are faring better than its favorites.
Wednesday morning
setup; US futures are higher as dip buyers turned an overnight "blue
tsunami" puke into a broad rally: Democrats swept both chambers of
Congress, initially sending Nasdaq 100 futures down as much as 2.4% on fears of
tighter AI regulation and a Texas data center freeze, before President Trump's
conciliatory tone (he said Democrats did "a good job" and that he
can work with them), AMD's blowout guide and the monetization of a pile of
election hedges flipped futures solidly green; as a result the dollar is
heading for its worst day since early September while gold blasts back
above $4,000. As of 8:15am ET, S&P futures are 0.9% higher at 7,665 while
Nasdaq futures are down 0.2%, Russell 2000 futures jump 1.3% and Dow futures
are up roughly 1.7%, or about 870 points, as VIX tumbles 12.8% to 18.16. Stocks
rose on Tuesday ahead of the vote, with the S&P 500 snapping a three-day
losing streak and semis rebounding 2.6% after an 11.6% three-session plunge. In
premarket trading, the Mag 7 is mostly higher led by Amazon, while Musk's Tesla
and SpaceX bear the brunt of the blue wave; AMD (+6.3%), Super Micro (+9.2%)
and Arista (+10.9%) lead chips higher after earnings, confirming
our article from last night, while solar names soar and defense stocks
slide. The day's driver is politics (finally): Democrats flipped Senate
seats in Texas, Ohio, Kansas, South Carolina, North Carolina, Iowa and Maine,
won the governorships of Texas, Ohio and Georgia, and are on track for at least
54 Senate seats; as we explained overnight, Texas
turned blue and futures turned green as the market concluded the AI fallout
would mean regulation rather than cessation. Treasuries are bid with yields
3-5bps lower and the 10Y at about 4.915% as divided government curbs the fiscal
outlook and the curve flattens ahead of the 8:30am refunding announcement. The
Bloomberg dollar index slides 0.5% to the lowest since Sept. 30, with the kiwi
leading G10 gains and EUR/USD up 0.6%. In commodities, WTI is down about 1%
near $95 as Trump played down the prospect of imminent strikes on Iran, while gold
jumps 3% and silver surges almost 5%; copper is flat. Bitcoin rises about 1% to
$78,480. US economic data slate includes October ADP employment change
(8:15am), September trade balance (8:30am), October final S&P Global
services and composite PMIs (9:45am) and ISM services (10am). There are no Fed
speakers scheduled. The Treasury publishes its quarterly refunding announcement
at 8:30am and sells $75 billion of 17-week bills at 11:30am.
Fundamental
Headlines
The
Economy
US
Weekly mortgage
applications declined 1.2% while purchase applications were down 2.0%.
Month to date
retail chain store sales rose 10.4% versus + 9.3% in the prior week.
September job
openings (JOLTS) totaled 7.52 million versus forecasts of 7.0 million.
https://bonddad.blogspot.com/2026/11/september-jolts-report-another.html
September factory
orders were up 1.8% versus predictions of +1.2%; ex transportation, they were
up 1.3% versus +0.9%.
The October ADP
employment report showed job increases of 86,000 versus consensus of 69,000.
International
The October
Chinese services PMI was 50.8 versus expectations of 51.5; the composite PMI was
52.0 versus 52.2; the October German services PMI was 52.5 versus 51.7; the
composite PMI was 53.4 versus 52.8; the October EU services PMI was 51.4 versus
51.7; the composite PMI was 51.7 versus 51.9; the October UK services PMI was
51.4 versus 51.7; the composite PMI was 52.9 versus 53.1.
The October EU CPI
was up 0.4% versus estimates of +0.3%.
Other
September median household income.
https://politicalcalculations.blogspot.com/2026/11/median-household-income-in-september.html
Data center
construction sends shock wave through the industrial economy; costs experience
a second wave of inflation.
Monetary
Policy
How high would the Fed Funds rate need to be
to bring inflation back to 2%?
Fiscal
Policy
Bankrupting America. (To be fair, it is not
just Trump. It is the entire ruling class.)
Inflation
The inflation election.
What
millions of data points reveal about inflation.
AI
AI’s third big bang is here.
https://www.riskhedge.com/outplacement/ai-is-third-big-bang-is-here
The Election
Wall Street reaction.
The
Financial System
More proof that the commercial real estate
market is cracking.
Investing
Finding growth without
froth.
https://www.advisorperspectives.com/commentaries/2026/11/03/case-garp-finding-growth-without-froth
Short term Market
moves won’t give us the answers to AI.
https://behaviouralinvestment.com/2026/11/03/short-term-market-moves-wont-give-us-the-answers-on-ai/
Central banks accelerated
gold buying in third quarter.
Total return
forecasts for major asset classes.
https://www.capitalspectator.com/total-return-forecasts-major-asset-classes-3-november-2026/
Was that the top?
https://talkmarkets.com/article/was-that-the-top-analyzing-techs-2026-correction
Downside
Breakdowns (Range Support Break)
- Short-Term
Returns: Breaking below the lower boundary of an extended trading range or
key moving average (like the 200-day moving average) carries a weaker
immediate profile. Historical instances of breaking below established
support thresholds show an average short-term loss (e.g., -0.29% over
the next month) with lower win rates (~57% positive). [1]
- Continuation
Risk: When downside breaks coincide with macro shocks or loss of major
structural support (such as the 200-day moving average), historical
precedents show that declines can extend significantly (ranging from 10%
to 25% or more in broader bear or correction phases), unless a fast policy
or geopolitical catalyst triggers a mean-reverting bounce. [1, 2]
- Mean
Reversion: Severe single-day or sharp panic breakdowns below a range often
trigger short-term oversold bounces or mean-reverting rallies within a few
weeks, though these sharp snaps do not always dictate the longer-term
primary trend. [1]
News on Stocks in Our Portfolios
What
I am reading today
Wednesday
morning humor.
This
is a choice? I try to avoid politics; but this crystalizes my sentiment.
https://reason.com/2026/10/31/for-libertarians-election-day-is-the-cruelest-day-of-the-year/
Visit Investing
for Survival’s website (http://investingforsurvival.com/home)
to learn more about our Investment Strategy, Prices Disciplines and Subscriber
Service.
Tuesday, November 3, 2026
The Morning Call---AI's last man standing just fell
The Morning Call
11/3/26
The
Market
Technical
Monday in the
charts.
Note: the S&P
reset it 50 DMA to resistance and closed below the lower boundary of the trading
range going back to early August. Clearly, not a good sign for the S&P. However,
our portfolios were up on the day, signifying the continuing divergence of the
S&P (dominated by the tech stocks) the rest of the Market. So the
underlying technical picture is not as bad as the S&P indicates. Still
there is no reason to buy, in my opinion; and it is likely too late to sell the
techs.
Monday in the
technical stats.
https://www.barchart.com/stocks/momentum
https://www.barchart.com/stocks/market-performance
https://www.barchart.com/stocks/sectors/rankings
https://www.barchart.com/stocks/signals/new-recommendations
The
flush hasn’t even started.
AI’s
last man standing just fell.
Tuesday morning
setup: US futures are down but off session lows, with Nasdaq contracts edging
higher, as America heads to the polls for the midterms, chips rebound even as
Apple slides on a gross margin warning and Palantir tumbles on a soft outlook,
and oil bounces off Monday's 8% plunge after the US struck Iran's Qeshm Island
in what officials called a "small-scale" and "defensive"
attack; as a result the oil-driven bond rally takes a breather with the 10Y
yield edging up to 4.93%. As of 8:00am ET, S&P futures are down 0.1% at
7,564 while Nasdaq futures are up 0.3% and Dow futures are down 0.6% some 300
points to 51,826. On Monday the S&P reversed a 1% gain to close down 0.5%
at 7,541 and the Nasdaq 100 slid 1.4% into a correction, 10% below its October
6 peak, even as the equal-weight S&P rose 0.7% and the Dow added 0.4%. In
premarket trading, semis and memory names are bid again while software lags,
with Shopify plunging 19% and Dynatrace 15%; Apple drops about 4%, after the
stock initially traded flat in the immediate aftermath of the report as
we noted last night, while Nvidia rises 1.5% (Apple closed Monday as the
world's most valuable company, only narrowly ahead of Nvidia, so that title is
in play). The day's driver is the vote (with Iran in the background, again):
Polymarket assigns a 94% chance of a Dem House and a 78% chance of a Dem
Senate, an outcome which markets fear means more AI regulation and more hurdles
for the data center buildout, with the Texas governor race seen as the one to
watch for the AI trade; meanwhile US-Iran headlines swing between mediator
proposals and Tehran declaring it is "now in a state of war"
after the Qeshm strike. Treasuries are broadly flat and outperform European
bonds, which slide as oil and Dutch gas rebound and ECB speakers sound hawkish.
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index is up 0.1%, the Aussie lags after the RBA's
split 6-3 hike was read as dovish, and the onshore yuan snapped its longest
winning streak in three decades after the PBOC raised FX reserve requirements.
In commodities, WTI rises 2% to about $98.45 and Brent trades above $105, gold
drops 0.9% and silver slides below $50, while copper slips under $14,000;
Bitcoin dipped to $76,240 before rebounding above $77,000. US economic data
slate includes September JOLTS job openings, factory orders and final durable
goods (all at 10am); there are no scheduled Fed speakers, and the Treasury
sells $100 billion of 6-week bills at 11:30am. Polls start closing at 6pm
ET.
Fundamental
Headlines
The
Economy
US
September construction
spending fell 1.9% versus estimates of +0.4%.
The October manufacturing PMI was 54.9 versus
projections of 56.0.
https://bonddad.blogspot.com/2026/11/in-goods-producing-sector-ai-continues.html
The October ISM manufacturing index was 55.5
versus consensus of 54.6.
The November small
business optimism index came in at 48.5 versus expectations of 46.2.
International
Other
The economy is less K-shaped than you think.
Iran
Overnight news.
Early morning update.
https://www.zerohedge.com/energy/irgc-claims-3-more-tankers-blown-naval-mines-hormuz
Monetary
Policy
Interrogating confusion at the Fed.
AI
When a credit default swap isn’t about credit.
Doubts about Silicon Vally’s AI bet.
The
Election
Three potential outcomes and how they might
move the Markets.
3
Midterm Outcomes & How They’d Move Stocks
The midterm election paradoxes.
https://amgreatness.com/2026/11/02/midterm-election-incoherences-misadventures-and-paradoxes/
Sectors bracing for a pivot following midterm
elections.
https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/sectors-bracing-pivot-us-midterm-elections-loom-2026-11-02/
The S&P’s midterm record faces stiff test.
https://giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/actions/redeem/38d230c8-551a-49cc-92fc-080c31a61d1c
Investing
Ever thought of
buying a warrant?
Why the next decade will likely be different.
https://talkmarkets.com/article/above-average-returns-why-the-next-decade-differs
But near term, you
can’t ignore the strong earnings momentum.
News on Stocks in Our Portfolios
What
I am reading today
Visit Investing
for Survival’s website (http://investingforsurvival.com/home)
to learn more about our Investment Strategy, Prices Disciplines and Subscriber
Service.
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