The Morning Call---Software's explosive setup

 

The Morning Call

 

2/26/26

 

The Market

         

    Technical

 

            Wednesday in the charts.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/crypto-crashes-halo-hiccups-bullion-big-tech-bid-ahead-nvda

 

                Wednesday in the technical stats.

            https://www.barchart.com/stocks/momentum

            https://www.barchart.com/stocks/market-performance

            https://www.barchart.com/stocks/sectors/rankings

            https://www.barchart.com/stocks/signals/new-recommendations

 

            When everyone buys puts.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/when-everyone-buys-puts

 

            Software’s explosive setup.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/record-underweight-massive-short-historic-oversold-softwares-explosive-setup

 

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

 

                          Weekly initial jobless claims totaled 212,00 versus consensus of 215,000.

                          https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/record-underweight-massive-short-historic-oversold-softwares-explosive-setup

 

                        International

 

The December Japanese leading economic indicators came in at 111.0 versus projections of 110.2.

 

The February EU economic sentiment index was 98.3 versus estimates of 99.8; the February industrial sentiment index was -7.1 versus -6.1; the February services sentiment index was 5.0 versus 7.5; the February consumer confidence index was -12.2, in line.

 

                        Other

 

                          February consumer confidence and sentiment.

                          https://econbrowser.com/archives/2026/02/confidence-and-sentiment-february-2026

 

            Fiscal Policy

 

              Our ruling class has a promises problem.

              https://www.foxnews.com/opinion/america-has-very-expensive-promises-problem-bill-coming-due

 

            Recession

 

              This author thinks that a recession watch is warranted.

              https://talkmarkets.com/article/per-prof-edward-leamers-forecasting-method-a-yellow-flag-recession-watch-is-warranted-1772036709

 

            Tariffs

 

              New tariffs kick in at 10% not 15%.

              https://www.ms.now/news/trumps-new-tariffs-kick-in-at-10-not-the-15-he-threatened

 

The problem with Trump’s new claimed authority to impose tariffs (Section 122 of the 1974 Trade Act).

              https://www.wsj.com/opinion/section-122-cant-carry-trumps-tariffs-5c5eee5e

 

            The Dollar

 

Is the dollar really dead? An interesting thesis, but I think that the author has the cause and effect reversed. The marginal seller of the dollar is selling it because it is depreciating in value and they want an asset that will hold its value or appreciate. The dollar is weak not because people want to own another asset but because they don’t want to own a depreciating dollar.

https://x.com/jc_paretsx/status/2025618616444686337

 

            The Financial System

 

              UBS sees the potential for cascading defaults in private equity.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/private-credit-rocked-ubs-shock-outlook-surge-cascading-defaults-and-widespread-contagion

 

            AI

 

              AI derangement syndrome.

              Update On AI Derangement Syndrome & Its Consequences

 

     Investing

 

            Nine out of 10 valuation indicators in sell territory.

                        https://www.marketwatch.com/story/9-of-the-stock-markets-10-most-watched-valuation-indicators-are-now-in-sell-territory-ebdb9d99?st=5c69ix

 

            Diversification is not just for defense.

                https://www.wsj.com/finance/investing/diversification-its-not-just-for-defense-anymore-9d00f6b1?st=nxyFtY

 

            Dividend payers in the S&P 500.

            https://politicalcalculations.blogspot.com/2026/02/dividend-payers-in-s-500.html

 

            The ten immutable laws of building wealth.

            https://www.advisorperspectives.com/commentaries/2026/02/25/10-immutable-laws-building-wealth

 

            There is still life in the software stocks.

            https://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-this-investor-says-you-can-make-good-money-off-software-stocks-if-you-trade-them-like-telephone-directories-e4d15635

 

            Bond investors are buying duration.

            https://www.capitalspectator.com/bond-investors-embrace-maturity-risk-in-2026/

 

            Goldman sees five risks to the market.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/goldman-warns-equity-market-crash-biggest-risk-2026-growth-forecast

           

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

 

 

What I am reading today

 

            US electric power generation by source.

https://wolfstreet.com/2026/02/24/whoosh-goes-demand-for-electricity-us-power-generation-by-source-in-2025-natural-gas-coal-nuclear-wind-hydro-solar-geothermal-biomass-petroleum/

 

 

 

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The Morning Call---AI is an orchestration layer not a displacement

 

The Morning Call

 

2/25/26

 

The Market

         

    Technical

 

            Tuesday in the charts.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/big-tech-bounces-back

 

            Tuesday n the technical stats.

            https://www.barchart.com/stocks/momentum

            https://www.barchart.com/stocks/market-performance

            https://www.barchart.com/stocks/sectors/rankings

            https://www.barchart.com/stocks/signals/new-recommendations

 

            From Goldman’s top trader.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/markets-jigsaw-puzzle-particularly-difficult-right-now-top-goldman-trader

 

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

 

Weekly mortgage applications were up 0.4% while purchase applications were down 5.0%.

 

Month to date retail chain store sales were up 6.7% versus +7.2% in the prior week.

 

The December home price index rose 0.1% versus forecast of +0.3%; the December Case Shiller home price index was +0.2%, in line.

https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2026/02/24/s-p-cotality-case-shiller-index-home-prices-up-for-fifth-straight-month

 

The February consumer confidence index came in at 91.2 versus projections of 87.0.

https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2026/02/24/consumer-confidence-inched-up-in-february

 

The February Richmond Fed manufacturing index was -10 versus estimates of -4.

                          https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2026/02/24/richmond-fed-manufacturing-activity-slowed-february-2026

 

                        International

 

Q4 German GDP grew 0.3%, in line; the March consumer confidence index came in at -24.7 versus -23.1.

 

The January EU CPI was down 0.6% versus expectations of -0.5%.

 

                        Other

 

                          Update on Q1 nowcast.

                          https://www.capitalspectator.com/us-growth-slows-in-q4-but-early-q1-data-signals-a-rebound/

 

            Monetary Policy

 

              Market bets soar that the Fed will cut rates.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/market-bets-soar-fed-will-cut-rates-2-2027

 

            Fiscal Policy

 

              The unseen debt crisis.

              https://www.realclearmarkets.com/articles/2026/02/24/there_is_a_debt_crisis_but_its_unseen_and_not_even_discussed_1166545.html

 

            Affodability

 

              Home prices versus wage growth.

              https://bonddad.blogspot.com/2026/02/repeat-existing-home-prices-continue-to.html

 

            The Dollar

 

              From exceptional to average?

              https://bondvigilantes.com/blog/2026/02/the-us-dollar-from-exceptional-to-average/

 

            Tariffs

 

              Sound and fury signifying nothing.

              https://alhambrapartners.com/weekly-market-pulse-122-or-301-whatever-it-takes/?src=news

 

              Tariffs overturned but fundamentals still rule.

              https://www.morningstar.com/economy/dont-overreact-tariffs-overturned-fundamentals-still-rule

 

            AI

 

              AI is an orchestration layer not a displacement.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/draft-draft-do-not-publish-anthropic-event

                         

              JP Morgan agrees.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/morgan-stanley-thinks-we-may-have-hit-peak-fear-and-its-best-trade-if-we-havent

 

                  The AI boom is powering a nuclear renaissance.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/ai/ai-boom-powering-nuclear-renaissance

 

            Geopolitics

 

              Iran war watch.

              https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2026/02/iran-war-watch-trump-dithers.html

 

     Investing

 

            The rest of the world pulls ahead.

            https://www.bespokepremium.com/interactive/posts/think-big-blog/rest-of-world-pulls-ahead

 

            The latest from Citadel.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/citadel-macro-guru-outlines-two-competing-forces-driving-market

 

            Foreigners are buying not selling US securities.

            Foreigners Are Buying, Not Selling, US Securities

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

 

What I am reading today

 

            Quote of the day.

            https://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2026/02/quote-of-the-day-95.php

 

                        Bonus quote of the day.

            https://cafehayek.com/2026/02/quotation-of-the-day-5297.html

 

 

Visit Investing for Survival’s website (http://investingforsurvival.com/home) to learn more about our Investment Strategy, Prices Disciplines and Subscriber Service.

 

 

 

The Morning Call---Affordability is a structural problem monetary policy can't fix

 

The Morning Call

 

2/24/26

 

The Market

         

    Technical

 

            Monday in the charts.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/tariffs-tehran-spark-bonds-bullion-gains-big-tech-bitcoin-pain

 

                Monday in the technical stats.

            https://www.barchart.com/stocks/momentum

            https://www.barchart.com/stocks/market-performance

            https://www.barchart.com/stocks/sectors/rankings

            https://www.barchart.com/stocks/signals/new-recommendations

 

            Margin debt up 4.4% in January.

            https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2026/02/23/margin-debt-finra-new-record-high-january-2026

 

                Brace for a crash.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/goldman-investors-brace-crash-desk-activity-indicative-vix-35

 

                Zero S&P call demand.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/goldman-there-zero-sp-call-demand-trading-floor

 

                Prime season for volatility.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/remember-what-markets-did-last-year-its-setting-again

 

                Gold breakout or blowoff?

            https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/gold-breakout-or-blow-monthly-rsi-96-dealers-fuel-rally

 

 

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

 

December factory orders were down 0.7% versus estimates of -0.5%; ex transportation, they were up 0.4% versus +0.1%.

 

The February Dallas Fed manufacturing index was +0.2 versus predictions of -3.5.

                          https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2026/02/23/dallas-fed-manufacturing-business-conditions-stable-february-2026

 

                        International

 

                        Other

 

                          Trusting economic statistics.

                          https://stayathomemacro.substack.com/p/trust-in-numbers

 

                          Update on business cycle indicators.

                          https://econbrowser.com/archives/2026/02/business-cycle-indicators-gdp-personal-income-mfg-trade-industry-sales-consumption

 

                          Long leading indicators point to slowing economy.

  https://talkmarkets.com/article/long-leading-indicators-in-q4-gdp-suggest-worsening-conditions-for-an-economy-barely-keeping-its-head-above-water-1771873171

 

 

            Monetary Policy

 

              Why rates probably won’t be cut before May.

              https://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-the-fed-could-deliver-one-final-sting-to-your-portfolio-before-powells-exit-in-may-de2e8f28?st=97W9ZA

 

              AI is no excuse for the Fed to cut rates.

              https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2026-02-23/ai-the-fed-and-interest-rates-no-excuse-to-cut?srnd=homepage-americas&sref=loFkkPMQ

 

            Fiscal Policy

 

              Gold prices reflect public unease.

              https://www.forbes.com/sites/johntamny/2026/02/22/the-gold-price-reflects-voter-unease-that-politicians-blithely-ignore/

 

              Debt to GDP ratio rises in Q4.

              https://wolfstreet.com/2026/02/21/us-treasury-debt-to-gdp-ratio-rises-to-122-in-q4-highest-since-covid-spike/

 

            Inflation

 

              Comparing the math in the CPI versus the PCE price indicator.

              https://wolfstreet.com/2026/02/21/pce-inflation-2-9-3-0-and-gdp-inflation-3-7-got-hotter-but-cpi-inflation-2-4-cooled-why-the-fed-needs-to-pay-serious-attention/

 

              Here is a slightly different take on what the math means.

              https://www.advisorperspectives.com/commentaries/2026/02/23/conflicting-data-results

 

              What causes stagflation?

              https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/what-causes-stagflation

 

            Tariffs

 

              The fairy tale economics of tariffs.

              https://www.realclearmarkets.com/articles/2026/02/23/the_supreme_court_blocks_president_trumps_18_trillion_fairy_tale_1166289.html

 

              EU set to halt US trade deal.

              https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-02-23/eu-set-to-freeze-us-trade-deal-approval-over-trump-tariff-risk?srnd=homepage-americas&sref=loFkkPMQ

 

              Why tariffs aren’t shrinking the US trade deficit.

              https://www.wsj.com/economy/trade/why-tariffs-arent-shrinking-the-u-s-trade-deficit-30a4dd0a?mod=economy_lead_story

 

            Affordability

 

              Affordability is a structural problem monetary policy can’t fix.

              https://thehill.com/opinion/finance/5747837-affordability-crisis-structural-failure/

 

            AI

 

               Responding sensibly to AI.

              https://ckarchive.com/b/k0umh6h5rwz88a6n33wn4aorrer77f8hgxwdn

           

     Investing

 

            Is China really dumping US Treasuries?

            https://www.advisorperspectives.com/commentaries/2026/02/23/china-dumping-us-treasuries

 

            The AI scare is healthy for the stock market.

            https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2026-02-23/the-ai-scare-trade-is-heathy-for-the-stock-market?srnd=homepage-americas&sref=loFkkPMQ

 

            Three risk factors stalk the market this week.

            https://www.capitalspectator.com/a-triad-of-risk-factors-stalks-markets-this-week/

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

 

 

What I am reading today

 

           

 

 

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