The Morning Call---the revolt against the dollar order

 

The Morning Call

 

4/24/26

 

The Market

         

    Technical

 

            Thursday in the charts.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/stocks-slide-oil-surges-iran-war-fears-semi-honey-badger-higher-17th-straight-day

 

Summary: The market rollercoaster of the past 5 days continued on Thursday, with stocks once again trying - and failing - to break out above last Friday's all time high, in what has now become a 100 point ping-pong game as stocks selloff just below 7200 only to get dip buyers jump in about 100 points lower. And while stocks had largely started to ignore the news flow from Iran in recent days, today a barrage of Iran-related headlines between 1pm and 2pm was all that mattered, sending S&P futures tumbling as much as 100 points lower before recovering almost all losses as it turned out that the near-war - according to X - was fake news. And while it may appears that the market's face ripping rally will never end, world war 3 or not, we may see some weakness in the near future as Goldman models month-end pension rebalancing at $25 billion of US equities to sell - the largest non-quarterly sell estimate on record. For context, November & April 2020 was $20 billion for sale. As for CTAs which were instrumental in pushing stocks this high, demand is dwindling with Goldman models projecting $680 million to buy in the US in a flat tape (after net buying $30.2bn over the last week and $42.8bn over the last month).

 

Thursday in the technical stats.

https://www.barchart.com/stocks/momentum

https://www.barchart.com/stocks/market-performance

https://www.barchart.com/stocks/sectors/rankings

https://www.barchart.com/stocks/signals/new-recommendations

 

            Crypto in the charts.

            https://talkmarkets.com/article/crypto-sentiment-hits-a-3-month-high-as-bitcoin-holds-77000-1776959196

 

            Gold is going nowhere.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/gold-going-nowhere-thats-still-trade

 

Friday morning setup: US equity futures jumped to a new all-time high, reversing modest overnight losses, and oil tumbled to session lows on reports that Iran is sending a delegation to Pakistan today for talks, boosting hopes of ceasefire extension or more. Iranian Foreign Minister Araqchi is expected to arrive in Islamabad at 22:00 local time (1:00pm ET), the NY Post reports. As of 8:00am ET, S&P futures rallied as much a 0.6% to a new all-time high of 7,190, reversing a modest loss in overnight trading as Brent tumbled from $107 to around $104 on the report. Tech shares rallied on the back of strong results from Intel and SAP SE, with the Nasdaq 100 up 1.3% and on track for a fourth straight weekly gain with most Mag 7 stocks trading higher. INTC added +29% amid surprises in both earnings and sales across all major businesses; the move will almost certainly extend the gains for semiconductor stocks to 18 straight days. The dollar slid 0.2%. Brent erased gains to fall 1.2% to below $104 a barrel while WTI dropped $1.2 and is now at $94.68 after trading as high as $98 earlier. Treasuries advanced, with the 10-year yield down two basis points at 4.31%. Metals are mixed, gold rebound above $4700; ags are higher. Today's macro data include the final UMich consumer sentiment survey. 

 

 

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

 

The April flash manufacturing PMI was reported at 54.0 versus forecasts of 52.5; the flash services PMI was 54.3 versus 50.0; the flash composite PMI was 52 versus 49.9.

 

The Kansas City Fed manufacturing index was 10 versus projections of 11.

                          https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2026/04/23/kansas-city-fed-manufacturing-index-activity-grew-further-in-april

 

                        International

 

                          March Japanese CPI rose 0.4%, in line.

 

March UK retail sales were up 0.7% versus consensus of +0.2%; ex fuel, they were up 0.2%, in line; the April consumer confidence index was -25 versus consensus of -24.

 

The April German business climate index was 84.4 versus expectations of 85.5; the April current conditions index was 85.4 versus 86.0.

 

                        Other

 

                          The most positive US datapoint.

                          https://bonddad.blogspot.com/2026/04/jobless-claims-still-most-positive.html

 

                          The IMF’s global economic outlook.

                          https://www.advisorperspectives.com/commentaries/2026/04/23/outlook-from-for-imf

 

                          Something is off with the oil math.

                          https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/jpmorgan-finds-something-global-oil-math

 

Summary:  Kaneva finds that "something is off" with the oil supply/demand math, and her conclusion is that "in practical terms", oil price have to go up much more, even as product supply shrinks due to far more demand destruction, before we reach a tentative equilibrium, one which will result in far more pain for consumers (and yes, stocks). 

 

            Iran

 

              Overnight news.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/flurry-reports-signal-breakthrough-us-iran-getting-back-table-pakistan-third-us

 

            Monetary Policy

 

              Where to start on regime change.

  https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2026-04-23/warsh-fed-regime-change-here-s-where-to-start?accessToken=eyJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiIsInR5cCI6IkpXVCJ9.eyJzb3VyY2UiOiJTdWJzY3JpYmVyR2lmdGVkQXJ0aWNsZSIsImlhdCI6MTc3Njk2NTc2NSwiZXhwIjoxNzc3NTcwNTY1LCJhcnRpY2xlSWQiOiJURFhaVUxLSVAzTkMwMCIsImJjb25uZWN0SWQiOiJCMzFCNTRDQTI3MTE0NjAxOUQxMURCN0IxRUM4NTE2MyJ9.J4ORaOaZyvltLszr8TJpijFcUjdv-Qo9b1_46porw6A

 

 

            Fiscal Policy

 

I hesitated to post this because it contains a lot of political rhetoric---which I try to avoid in these pages. However, the recounting of the facts (assuming that they are not political bulls**t) about insider trading points out a concern that we all should have.

https://mishtalk.com/economics/insider-trading-by-the-trump-administration-or-its-hot-connections/

 

              39 going to 40 trillion.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/39-going-40-trillion

 

            Inflation

 

              Fertilizer prices in context.

              https://econbrowser.com/archives/2026/04/fertilizer-prices-in-context

 

              Update on inflation expectations.

              https://econbrowser.com/archives/2026/04/five-year-inflation-expectations-april-22

 

            The Financial System

 

              How private credit funds disappear troubled loans.

              https://roddubitsky.substack.com/p/the-vanishing-how-bdcs-disappear

 

            The Dollar

 

              The revolt against the dollar order.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/gaza-brics-revolt-against-dollar-order

 

     Investing

 

            Stocks are up because earnings are up.

            https://www.carsongroup.com/insights/blog/theres-no-puzzle-as-to-why-stocks-are-at-all-time-highs/

 

            The cheapest Mag 7 stock.

            https://talkmarkets.com/article/cheapest-magnificent-7-stock-revealed-ahead-of-big-tech-earnings-1776958775

 

            Why the gold price is under pressure.

            (3) Precious Metals Work - by Quoth the Raven

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

 

 

What I am reading today

 

            Why are we so sad?

            https://www.derekthompson.org/p/if-americas-so-rich-howd-it-get-so

 

                        Why thinking hard feels bad.

            https://www.psypost.org/why-thinking-hard-feels-bad-the-emotional-root-of-deliberation/

 

Visit Investing for Survival’s website (http://investingforsurvival.com/home) to learn more about our Investment Strategy, Prices Disciplines and Subscriber Service.

 

 

 

The Morning Call---Supply chains will change as a result of the war.

 

The Morning Call

 

4/23/26

 

The Market

         

    Technical

 

            Wednesday in the charts.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/stocks-shrug-surging-oil-prices-bitcoin-rips-tehran-turbocharges-tensions-trump

 

Summary: Ceasefire schmeasefire' - oil prices are back above yesterday's highs after Iran struck 3 ships in the Strait, but stocks continue to dream of post-conflict 'good times' based on solid earnings (hope), despite very narrow breadth. Bonds also shrugged off oil's angst as big-tech and bitcoin ripped higher. Gold and the dollar were unch.

 

Wednesday in the technical stats.

https://www.barchart.com/stocks/momentum

https://www.barchart.com/stocks/market-performance

https://www.barchart.com/stocks/sectors/rankings

https://www.barchart.com/stocks/signals/new-recommendations

 

            The easy part is behind us.

                        https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/were-final-innings-systematic-support-stocks-goldman-delta-one-desk-head-warns-easy-part

 

Summary: Month end pension rebalancing here will be sizeable with our first cut of estimates +$20bn for sale (still a bit early to worry about this). So yes, there is still hope around earnings, and the economy is holding in, but the market is also beginning to ask harder questions about terminal valuation and forward multiples. The key point now is that the forced buying is much further along. If you are chasing from here, you really have to believe the benign outcome is not just probable but durable…the easy part of the rebound looks largely behind us.

 

 

            Gold and silver going higher.

            (3) Gold And Silver Prices "Going Much Higher"

 

            Gold and silver going lower.

            https://talkmarkets.com/article/worse-for-gold-than-active-war-1776876929

 

            Traders abandon bullish dollar bets.

            https://giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/actions/redeem/3092e90b-be01-49f7-bda8-569ad08d8403

 

Thursday morning setup: US equity futures are lower, but rapidly rising and now at premarket highs after a CCTV report that talks between Iran and the US in Pakistan may see a breakthrough "tonight or tomorrow"; still the optimism of recent days is being tested, with peace talks in limbo, software concerns reemerging and the bond market flashing warning signals. As of 8:15am ET, S&P 500 futures, and Nasdaq 100 contract both fell 0.1%, recovering almost all of their 0.8% overnight drop. Pre-market, Mag 7 are mostly lower with TSLA (-2.8%) and MSFT (-1.6%) lagging. Overnight, we saw a slew of positive semi earnings in Asia: SK Hynix sets record quarterly profits. Oil traffic through the Strait of Hormuz ground to a halt after Iran fired on commercial ships and said it had seized at least two vessels, while the US military intercepted two Iranian oil supertankers that tried to evade its blockade. Brent rose 0.9% to around $103 a barrel as the US and Iran kept blocking the Strait of Hormuz. The dollar advanced 0.2%, while Treasury yields climbed across the curve. Precious metals are recovering overnight losses and base metals are all higher. In premarket trading, Mag 7 stocks are all lower: Tesla (TSLA) falls 3% after the electric-vehicle maker boosted its capital expenditures to more than $25 billion for the year to support Elon Musk’s ambition to transform his firm into an AI and robotics company (Microsoft -1.9%, Amazon -0.4%, Nvidia -0.5%, Meta -1.5%, Alphabet -0.5%, Apple -0.1%)

 

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

           

              The Economy

 

                        US

 

Weekly initial jobless claims totaled 214,000 versus consensus of 212,000.

 

The March Chicago national activity index came in at -0.2 versus expectations of +0.2.  

 

                        International

 

The Q2 UK business optimism index was -61 versus estimates of -23; the April industrial trends orders index was -38 versus -30.

 

The April Japanese flash manufacturing PMI was 54.9 versus expectations    of 51.2; the flash services PMI was 51.2 versus 52.0; the flash composite PMI was 52.4 versus 51.2; the April German flash manufacturing PMI was 51.2 versus 51.3; the flash services PMI was 46.9 versus 50.3; the flash composite PMI was 48.3 versus 51.1; the April EU flash manufacturing PMI was 52.2 versus 50.8; the flash services PMI was 47.4 versus 49.9; the flash composite PMI was 48.1 versus 50.2; the April UK flash manufacturing PMI was 53.6 versus 49.9; the flash services PMI was 52.0 versus 50.0; the flash composite PMI was 52.0 versus 49.8.

 

                        Other

 

                          A different kind of GDP nowcast.

                          https://politicalcalculations.blogspot.com/2026/04/climbing-limo-gdp-forecast-for-2026-q1.html

 

                          A deep dive into Tuesday’s retail sales figures.

  https://wolfstreet.com/2026/04/21/as-gasoline-prices-spiked-did-americans-scrimp-at-other-retailers-to-buy-gas-nope-not-americans-born-to-splurge/

 

                          Update on big four recession indicators.

                          https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2026/04/21/the-big-four-recession-indicators

           

                          Updating the long leading indicators.

                          https://bonddad.blogspot.com/2026/04/updating-long-leading-indicators.html

 

            Iran

 

              Overnight news:

              https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/us-intercepts-iranian-tankers-tehran-keeps-hormuz-chokepoint-shut

 

              Supply chains will change as a result of the war.

  https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-04-22/iran-war-to-impact-shipping-long-after-it-ends-japan-s-mol-says?accessToken=eyJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiIsInR5cCI6IkpXVCJ9.eyJzb3VyY2UiOiJTdWJzY3JpYmVyR2lmdGVkQXJ0aWNsZSIsImlhdCI6MTc3Njg3OTEzMywiZXhwIjoxNzc3NDgzOTMzLCJhcnRpY2xlSWQiOiJURFczVVpLSkg2VzEwMCIsImJjb25uZWN0SWQiOiJCMzFCNTRDQTI3MTE0NjAxOUQxMURCN0IxRUM4NTE2MyJ9.-qjr6o-OKDww3emLCd0qxqL9UkncdcrG3aHcjIGCWwg

                       

 

            Monetary Policy

           

              One way to know if Warsh is up to the job.

  https://www.nytimes.com/2026/04/21/opinion/jerome-powell-fed-kevin-warsh-hearings.html?unlocked_article_code=1.c1A.3rpE.thNI3FJNCz82&smid=url-share

 

            Fiscal Policy

 

Government spending doesn’t cause rising prices; it is the Fed’s monetization of that spending that does.

https://www.realclearmarkets.com/articles/2026/04/22/market_prices_dont_much_care_about_democrats_and_republicans_1177842.html

 

            Tariffs

 

Update on the tariff war. (Bear in mind that there were noneconomic reasons [not mentioned] behind the tariffs. Still the economic analysis is spot on.)

https://ritholtz.com/2026/04/post-scotus-tariff-war-update/

 

     Investing

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

 

 

What I am reading today

 

            Who was Mary Magdalene?

            Was Mary Magdalene actually a rich woman? | National Geographic

 

 

Visit Investing for Survival’s website (http://investingforsurvival.com/home) to learn more about our Investment Strategy, Prices Disciplines and Subscriber Service.

 

 

 

The Morning Call---Confusion reigns

 

The Morning Call

 

4/22/26

 

The Market

         

    Technical

 

            Tuesday in the charts.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/warsh-worries-tehran-tensions-trigger-oil-pump-stocks-slump-gold-dump

 

Summary: two things seemed to be driving markets today - anxiety over the looming Iran ceasefire deadline (and on-again, off-again talks) and Fed Chair nominee Warsh's hearing (which leaned a little more hawkish than many expected). The result of all that (including strong macro data) was higher oil, higher bond yields, lower rate-cut expectations, lower stocks, and gold hammered.

 

            Tuesday in the technical stats.

            https://www.barchart.com/stocks/momentum

            https://www.barchart.com/stocks/market-performance

            https://www.barchart.com/stocks/sectors/rankings

            https://www.barchart.com/stocks/signals/new-recommendations

 

             Crowded upside; empty downside.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/crowded-upside-empty-downside

 

              Summary: The squeeze is still on, but the tape is starting to feel a bit tired. Price is pushing, but the underlying signals aren’t confirming.

This isn’t about calling a top… but this is typically where moves start getting more fragile and risk-reward shifts from chasing to managing     exposure. Not a top call… but this is where you start owning downside.

 

Wednesday morning setup: Futures are higher with earnings in full swing and AI winners soaring. Trump indefinitely extended the ceasefire with Iran just before its Taco Tuesday expiration, while maintaining a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, after plans for peace talks fell apart. Still, the market doesn’t seem too concerned about the lack of a resolution, and is instead focused on a Tasnim report that Iran had received "some signs" the US was ready to break the blockade. As of 8:00am, S&P futures were up 0.6%, rebounding from two days of declines; Nasdaq futures gained 0.7% with all Mag 7 names trading higher in the premarket. The VIX traded around 19. Overnight, Brent briefly climbed above $100 a barrel as talks earmarked for Islamabad failed to take place, leaving the Strait of Hormuz mostly shut. Tensions escalated as Iranian tankers tested a US blockade and the UK Maritime Trade Operations said two ships came under fire. Treasuries rose across the curve, with the 10-year yield dropping two basis points to 4.27%. The dollar eased 0.1%, while Bitcoin headed for the highest level since February and gold/silver rebounding from yesterday’s weakness. There is nothing on the macro calendar but we will have another busy day with earnings: TSLA is expected to report after market-close today.

           

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

 

Weekly mortgage applications were up 7.8% while purchase applications were up 10%.

 

                          Month to date retail chain sales grew 6.7% versus 7.0% in the prior week.

 

                          March pending home sales rose 1.5% versus forecasts of up 0.1%.

                          https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2026/04/21/pending-home-sales-unexpectedly-jump-march-2026

 

                        International

 

The March Japanese trade balance was Y667 billion versus projections of Y1106 billion.

 

March UK CPI was up 0.7% versus estimates of +0.6%; core CPI was up 0.4% versus +0.5%; the retail price index was up 0.8% versus +0.7%.

 

                        Other

 

                          Retail sales since the great recession.

                          https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2026/04/21/recession-indicators-real-retail-sales-march-2026

 

                          More details on Mrach retail sales.

                          https://bonddad.blogspot.com/2026/04/march-retail-spending-including-or.html

 

            Iran

 

              Overnight news---confusing at best:

 

Pakistani Journalist Mallick posted "To my understanding, while there might be some roadblocks for the second round of US - Iran in person talks to go ahead, but Diplomacy is not dead and its currently at play.".

 

US President Trump is reportedly willing to Iran give another three to five days of ceasefire, Axios reported citing sources; "It certainly looks like Trump doesn't want to use military force anymore and has made a decision to end the war,". US officials and Pakistani mediators are waiting for Khamenei to break his silence in the next day or two and give his negotiators a clear directive to return to the table. Ceasefire is not going to be open-ended, the source added.

 

Iran received 'some sign' the US is ready to break the blockade, Tasnim reported.

 

US President Trump posted "Iran is collapsing financially! They want the Strait of Hormuz opened immediately- Starving for cash! Losing 500 Million Dollars a day. Military and Police complaining that they are not getting paid. SOS!!!".

 

Fox News cited sources that stated US President Trump's decision not to resume strikes on Iran for now is a last chance for peace that Trump is giving to the Iranian people, but added the ceasefire will be short-term unless an agreement is reached shortly. ".

 

Iran top joint military command spokesperson said they are warning against repeated threats of the US President and army commanders, that their capable and the powerful forces have been 100% ready and on the trigger for a long time. said: In case of aggression and any action against Iran, they will immediately attack the predetermined targets and teach the aggressor, America and Israeli regime another lesson.

 

Iranian TV states Iran will not recognize ceasefire announced by Trump and may not abide by it and will act in accordance with its national interests, according to Al Mayadeen.

 

              Power vacuum in Iran?

              Power Vacuum In Iran Isn't Fazing US Economy

 

Summary: What if the US won the war, but Iran can't surrender because no one is in charge over there? To make a deal, President Donald Trump needs someone to deal with. He was hoping to strike a deal this week in Islamabad, but the Iranians declined to meet because they are too busy fighting among themselves. Indeed, Trump, today, said that he extended the ceasefire because "the Government of Iran is seriously fractured, not unexpectedly so," a reference to US-Israeli assassinations of many of the country's leaders.

 

            Monetary Policy

 

              The question Warsh must answer.

              https://www.ms.now/opinion/trump-fed-chair-kevin-warsh-hearing-question

 

              Five things to watch at the Warsh hearing.

              https://assets.realclear.com/files/2026/04/2872_fed_notes_-_april_17.pdf

 

              Three things to know about Warsh.

              https://www.npr.org/2026/04/21/nx-s1-5787863/federal-reserve-kevin-warsh-confirmation-hearing

 

            Recession

 

              Oil traders warn of recession.

  https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-04-21/top-oil-traders-warn-worst-of-demand-hit-from-war-is-yet-to-come?accessToken=eyJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiIsInR5cCI6IkpXVCJ9.eyJzb3VyY2UiOiJTdWJzY3JpYmVyR2lmdGVkQXJ0aWNsZSIsImlhdCI6MTc3Njc5MjUwMCwiZXhwIjoxNzc3Mzk3MzAwLCJhcnRpY2xlSWQiOiJURFU1RUNLSkg2VjUwMCIsImJjb25uZWN0SWQiOiJCMzFCNTRDQTI3MTE0NjAxOUQxMURCN0IxRUM4NTE2MyJ9.Z9_ZTLjEAu8FiWHhbbCv2EqlMv9dmzvr-JnBj9v21gw

 

 

            The Financial System

 

              The private credit panic is overblown.

              https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/why-private-credit-is-not-in-crisis-despite-growing-strains-by-dambisa-moyo-2026-04

 

              Private credit funds strained as borrowing costs rise.

              https://giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/actions/redeem/40fca5f4-daa6-4193-8305-db74131bd869

 

     Investing

 

            Stop reading the news.

            https://alhambrapartners.com/weekly-market-pulse-stop-reading-the-news/?src=news

 

            Investing can be unpleasant.

            https://www.tker.co/p/i-took-no-pleasure-in-that

 

            JP Morgan raises S&P price target.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/jpmorgan-chief-strategist-hikes-sp-price-target-ai-momentum-rebounds

 

Summary:  the big bank's strategists are out this morning with a bigger picture bullish note raising its year-end target for the S&P 500 to 7,600, after a downgrade to 7,200 made just last month. In summary, the team, led by Dubravko Lakos-Bujas, says a renewed surge in enthusiasm for artificial intelligence will help drive US stocks to higher-than-expected levels this year. As Bloomberg's Levin Stamm noted, the team’s rapid reversal of the March downgrade, where they cited geopolitical risks, underscores the difficulties faced by market forecasters in President Trump‘s second term amid 'tweet bingo' and 'headline roulette'. The JPMorgan team notes that "this level of investor interest in AI stocks has not been seen since 1H25."

 

            Don’t buy the earnings hype.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/dont-buy-earnings-hype

 

Summary: Wall Street is suddenly euphoric on earnings again. S&P 500 EPS expectations are screaming higher, 15–20% growth ahead. But history is clear: analysts chase the cycle, not predict it. And right now the earnings bonanza is being very narrow. On the surface: bullish. Underneath: just another late-cycle surge in optimism. This isn’t broad strength. It’s two trades: AI / Tech capex boom. Commodities spike (energy + materials). Everything else? Meh. This is not a synchronized economy, it's a concentrated narrative rally.

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

 

 

What I am reading today

 

            The results of a new study on the accuracy of AI.

                        https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2026/04/half-of-ai-health-answers-are-wrong-even-though-they-sound-convincing-new-study.html

 

 

Visit Investing for Survival’s website (http://investingforsurvival.com/home) to learn more about our Investment Strategy, Prices Disciplines and Subscriber Service.