The Morning Call---Orderly until it isn't

 

The Morning Call

 

3/27/26

 

The Market

         

    Technical

 

            Thursday in the charts.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/oil-spikes-nukes-no-deal-headline-fatigue-hammers-bonds-big-tech-bitcoin-bullion

 

Note: the S&P has now marked a fifth lower high and closed slightly below the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level (~6483). If it can’t recover that level, the next visible support is the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level (~6163). Stay cautious but be looking for buy candidates.

 

                Thursday in the technical stats.

            https://www.barchart.com/stocks/momentum

            https://www.barchart.com/stocks/market-performance

            https://www.barchart.com/stocks/sectors/rankings

            https://www.barchart.com/stocks/signals/new-recommendations

 

            Orderly until it isn’t.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/looks-orderly-until-it-isnt

 

            The latest from Goldman’s desk.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/march-madness-continues-goldmans-flows-gurus-warn-stay-hedge-and-nimble

 

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

 

The March Kansas City Fed manufacturing index came in at 11 versus forecasts of 2.

                                                  https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2026/03/26/kansas-city-fed-manufacturing-index-hits-highest-level-since-2022

 

                        International

 

February UK YoY auto production fell 10.7% versus projections of +8.6%; February retail sales were down 0.4% versus -0.7%; ex fuel, they were down 0.4% versus -0.8%; the March consumer confidence index was -2.1 versus -2.4.

 

February Chinese YoY industrial profits were up 15.2% versus consensus off +0.9%.

 

                        Other

 

                         Can predictions markets predict?

                         https://klementoninvesting.substack.com/p/can-prediction-markets-predict

 

                        More on yesterday’s weekly jobless claims number.

                        https://bonddad.blogspot.com/2026/03/new-and-continuing-jobless-claims.html

           

            Iran

 

              Overnight news.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/escalation-all-fronts-mediators-say-iran-hasnt-requested-pause-us-energy-strikes

           

            Monetary Policy

 

              M2 update.

              https://scottgrannis.blogspot.com/2026/03/m2-update-ok-for-now-but-fed-should-ease.html

 

              Atlanta Fed odds of a rate cut/increase.

              https://econbrowser.com/archives/2026/03/the-administration-campaign-to-push-down-the-fed-funds-rate-computer-says-no

 

              Update on the Fed’s P&L.

              https://wolfstreet.com/2026/03/25/feds-operating-losses-declined-to-19-billion-in-2025-unrealized-losses-declined-to-844-billion/

 

            Fiscal Policy

 

              Spot lighting potential fraud in government spending.

https://www.realclearinvestigations.com/articles/2026/03/24/citizen_sleuths_spotlight_red_flags_galore_in_government_spending_1172246.html?mc_cid=5f4e1fc3df

 

 

              OECD ups its inflation forecast.

   https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-03-26/war-hits-global-economy-with-us-inflation-seen-by-oecd-at-4-2?srnd=homepage-americas&sref=loFkkPMQ

 

            Tariffs

 

              EU lawmakers approve US trade deal.

              https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-03-26/eu-lawmakers-approve-us-trade-deal-after-several-delays?srnd=homepage-americas&sref=loFkkPMQ

 

     Investing

 

            Five lessons investors need to know.

            https://www.carsongroup.com/insights/blog/five-lessons-all-investors-need-to-know-in-todays-volatile-times/

 

            One factor driving all returns.

            https://www.apolloacademy.com/one-factor-driving-all-returns/

 

            Markets have decoupled again.

            https://www.capitalspectator.com/markets-are-decoupling-again-based-on-return-correlations/

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

 

 

What I am reading today

 

            Can this medieval shipwreck rewrite history?

            Can this medieval Byzantine shipwreck rewrite history? | National Geographic

 

 

                        The mistaken identity of predictions markets.

            The Mistaken Identity of Prediction Markets

 

Visit Investing for Survival’s website (http://investingforsurvival.com/home) to learn more about our Investment Strategy, Prices Disciplines and Subscriber Service.

 

 

 

The Morning Call---The coming CPI shock

 

The Morning Call

 

3/26/26

 

The Market

         

    Technical

 

            Wednesday in the charts.

                https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/stocks-bonds-shrug-oil-apprehension-about-peace-proposal-bitcoin-bullion-bid

 

Note: despite the positive pin action, the S&P remained below its 200 DMA. Stay cautious.

 

                Wednesday in the technical stats.

            https://www.barchart.com/stocks/momentum

            https://www.barchart.com/stocks/market-performance

            https://www.barchart.com/stocks/sectors/rankings

            https://www.barchart.com/stocks/signals/new-recommendations

 

            Bond volatility screams stress.

                https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/bond-vol-screams-stress-equities-arent-listening

 

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

 

                          Weekly initial jobless claims totaled 210,000, in line.

 

                        International

 

The April German consumer confidence index was reported at -28.0 versus estimates of -26.5.

 

                        Other

 

            Overnight News

 

The Pentagon is developing military options for a "final blow" in Iran that could include the use of ground forces and a massive bombing campaign.

 

President Trump has told associates in recent days that he wants to avoid a protracted war in Iran and that he hopes to bring the conflict to an end in the coming weeks. The president has privately informed advisers he thinks the conflict is in its final stages, urging them to stick to the four-to-six-week timeline he has outlined publicly, according to people familiar with the matter.

 

Israeli officials say a US-Iran deal remains unlikely, but fear President Donald Trump could still declare a temporary ceasefire as talks continue.

 

Trump administration officials are examining what a potential spike in oil prices as high as $200 a barrel would mean for the economy, according to people familiar with the matter, a sign senior officials are studying the possible fallout from extreme scenarios for the Iran war.

 

On the stage and sidelines of a global energy conference in Houston, CEOs painted a much bleaker picture: Financial markets aren’t accurately reflecting the gravity of the crisis, the war is crippling the world’s fuel supplies, and the industry’s Middle East operations are at risk, they said.

 

            Iran

 

              The (rumored) Iranian demands for a cease fire.

              https://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2026/03/for-what-its-worth-4.php

 

            Monetary Policy

 

              $5 diesel fuel, inflation and Fed policy.

                          https://wolfstreet.com/2026/03/24/5-diesel-could-unleash-inflationary-mindset-the-fed-better-not-look-through-inflation-was-already-hot-before-iran-war/

 

              Rate cuts on ice as inflation expectations surge.

              https://www.capitalspectator.com/rate-cuts-on-ice-as-inflation-expectations-surge-at-the-short-end/

 

            Fiscal Policy

 

              Defense spending and the 5% of GDP fallacy.

              https://www.realclearmarkets.com/articles/2026/03/25/defense_spending_and_the_5_of_gdp_fallacy_1172520.html

 

              The government’s weakening data collection system.

  https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2026-03-25/michael-bloomberg-trump-assault-on-federal-data-solves-nothing?srnd=homepage-americas&sref=loFkkPMQ

 

              When the chickens come ome to roost.

              Ever Wonder Where $7 Trillion Goes? - by Quoth the Raven

 

            Inflation

 

              The coming CPI shock.

              https://bonddad.blogspot.com/2026/03/updating-kiss-estimate-of-coming-shock.html

 

            Recession

 

              The rising risk of recession.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/rate-reversal-will-be-swift-when-sentiment-cracks

 

            The Dollar

 

              The global dollar plumbing system.

              https://www.advisorperspectives.com/commentaries/2026/03/25/dollars-plumbing-conspiracy-vs-data

 

            The Financial System

 

              Why the semiliquid private credit funds’ liquidity problem was inevitable.

              https://www.morningstar.com/funds/why-semiliquid-fund-liquidity-crunch-was-inevitable

 

     Investing

 

            Reacting to risk.

            https://behaviouralinvestment.com/2026/03/24/one-risk-after-another/

 

            The decoupling of gold from the inflation indexed Treasury.

            https://politicalcalculations.blogspot.com/2026/03/high-striker_01708440736.html

 

The question isn’t whether inflation will go higher; the question is will the bond market ignore it.

                https://talkmarkets.com/article/the-name-is-bond-30-year-not-james-but-whats-the-message-1774458519

               

                Hedge yourself.

            https://www.ft.com/content/043a0d8d-bf9f-4348-b6b5-55303cbf3128

 

                Defensives are expensive.

            https://chartkidmatt.com/p/defensives-aren-t-cheap

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

 

What I am reading today

 

            Thursday morning humor.

            8 Tips For Getting Through TSA Faster | Babylon Bee

 

 

Visit Investing for Survival’s website (http://investingforsurvival.com/home) to learn more about our Investment Strategy, Prices Disciplines and Subscriber Service.

 

 

 

The Morning Call---Remember, cash is a position

 

The Morning Call

 

3/25/26

 

The Market

         

    Technical

 

            Tuesday in the charts.

                        https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/quiet-too-quiet-day-turns-turmoily-boots-ground-chatter-battered-bonds-bitcoin-black-gold

 

Note: the S&P closed below its 200 DMA for the fourth day, confirming the break and resetting it to resistance. That leaves the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level (~6483) as the next visible support level. Stay cautious.

 

                        Tuesday in the technical stats.

            https://www.barchart.com/stocks/momentum

            https://www.barchart.com/stocks/market-performance

            https://www.barchart.com/stocks/sectors/rankings

            https://www.barchart.com/stocks/signals/new-recommendations

 

            Gold at $10,000?

            https://www.cnbc.com/2026/03/24/gold-price-forecast-10000-expectations-in-spite-of-bear-market.html

 

            The setup for a squeeze in gold.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/gold-vol-flip-panic-hedging-sets-squeeze

 

            If the ten year Treasury breaks above 4.4%, there is a problem.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/44-line-if-10-year-breaks-everything-changes

           

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

                                   

Weekly mortgage applications were down 10.5% while purchase applications were down 5.0%.        

 

Month to date retail chain store sales rose 6.7% versus +6.4% in the prior week.

 

The March Richmond Fed manufacturing index was 0 virus forecasts of -5.

https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2026/03/24/richmond-fed-manufacturing-activity-flat-march-2026

 

The March manufacturing PMI was 52.4 versus predictions of 51.3; the services PMI was 51.1 versus 51.5; the composite PMI was 51.4 versus 50.5 (it was 51.9 in February)

                                  https://talkmarkets.com/article/us-pmis-signal-stagflation-fears-accelerating-as-war-started-1774372053

 

                        International

 

The January Japanese leading economic indicators came in at 112.1 versus consensus of 112.4.

 

February UK CPI was up 0.4%, in line; core CPI was up 0.6% versus +0.5%.

 

The March German business climate index was 86.4 versus expectations of 86.1; the March current conditions index was 86.7 versus 86.0.

 

                        Other

                         

                                  Update on Q1 GDP nowcast.

                          https://talkmarkets.com/article/gdpnow-first-quarter-gdp-estimate-sinks-to-20-percent-still-too-high-1774374491

 

                                  The bond market is sending an unprecedented message.

                          https://bonddad.blogspot.com/2026/03/the-bond-market-sends-unprecedented.html

 

            Iran

 

              Overnight news.

                          https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/iran-warns-it-wont-be-fooled-again-negotiations-attacks-continue-us-troops-en-route

 

              Insider betting on the end of the war?

  https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-same-polymarket-trader-who-predicted-the-start-of-the-iran-war-is-now-betting-on-a-cease-fire-by-next-week-6245157b?st=GtTuWh

 

 

            The Financial System

 

            Another private credit firm caps withdrawals.

            https://www.ft.com/content/d315cb1c-1e1e-479c-a6d4-b3a817fead3e?syn-25a6b1a6=1

 

            Make that two.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/ares-latest-gate-investors-private-credit-fund-heres-who-will-gate-next

           

            Goldman’s analysis of the private credit crisis.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/will-private-credit-lead-another-financial-crisis-goldman-answers

 

     Investing

 

            Questions.

            https://alhambrapartners.com/weekly-market-pulse-questions-4/?src=news

 

            Can you beat the Market by avoiding its worse days?

            https://www.morningstar.com/funds/you-can-beat-stock-market-by-avoiding-its-worst-days-you-wont

 

            Remember, cash is a position.

            https://www.advisorperspectives.com/commentaries/2026/03/24/shelter-no

 

            Being right is being early.

            https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=6191618

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

 

What I am reading today

 

            A great state income tax divorce

            https://issuesinsights.com/2026/03/23/a-great-income-tax-divorce-is-underway-and-its-a-beautiful-thing/

 

 

Visit Investing for Survival’s website (http://investingforsurvival.com/home) to learn more about our Investment Strategy, Prices Disciplines and Subscriber Service.