The Morning Call
9/3/26
The
Market
Technical
Wednesday in the
charts.
Wednesday in the
technical stats.
https://www.barchart.com/stocks/momentum
https://www.barchart.com/stocks/market-performance
https://www.barchart.com/stocks/sectors/rankings
https://www.barchart.com/stocks/signals/new-recommendations
Rising correlations,
bad breadth.
Hedge when you
can, not when you have to.
Sell, sell or
sell.
Charts for the
beach.
https://www.advisorperspectives.com/commentaries/2026/09/02/charts-beach
Gold, now what?
Th dollar cycle is
pointing down.
https://mrzepczynski.blogspot.com/2026/09/the-dollar-cycle-is-heading-down.html
Thursday morning
setup: Futures are flats with Tech in line and small caps lagging even as bond
yields dip 1bp across the curve, ignoring the continued rise in oil. In a quiet
session ahead of tomorrow's jobs report, Japan remains the standout, with
the yen strengthening on more hawkish BOJ repricing and intervention
speculation, pressuring exporters. Risk is modestly bid after yesterday’s
reprieve in energy and rates (although Korean memory has faded again
and only buybacks prop up the Korean market with retail now puking
daily). As of 8:00am ET, S&P futures are unchanged, while Nasdaq
futures down 0.1% with memory lagging with both Mag7 and Software (SNOW
surging) higher. Cyclicals are higher led by Indus / Materials but there are
also bids to HC / Staples. The Dollar is weaker, too, giving a sense of the
return to the Debasement trade as US stocks lag EU and DM bonds are
outperforming US. Crude prices are up but fuel prices are lower. Metals are bid
led by Iron and Precious as Ags are under pressure. Today's US economic data
calendar includes July trade balance, 2Q final productivity and unit labor
costs and weekly jobless claims (8:30am), August final S&P Global US
services PMI (9:45am) and August ISM services (10am), Fed speaker slate
includes Waller (8:30am), Hammack (3pm) and Goolsbee (3:55pm). The risk comes
from inflation (Prices Paid index) as investors consider a Fed rate hike with
market-implied odds of a hike ~64%.
Fundamental
Headlines
The
Economy
US
Weekly initial jobless claims totaled 206,000 versus
forecasts of 205,000.
Q2 nonfarm
productivity was up 1.4%, in line; until labor costs were up 1.2% versus +1.3%.
July factory orders rose 0.9% versus consensus
of +0.6%.
The July trade
balance was -$88.1 billion versus expectations of -$90.0 billion.
International
The July EU PPI came in at +1.6% versus
estimates of +1.2%.
The August
Japanese services PMI was 52.5 versus projections of 52.3; the August composite PMI was 53.5 versus
52.0; the August Chinese services PMI was 51.4 versus 50.6; the August
composite PMI was 52.1 versus 51.0; the August German services PMI was 49.7
versus 48.5; the August composite PMI was 51.8 versus 51.0; the August EU services
PMI was 51.6 versus 51.7; the August composite PMI was 52.0 versus 52.1; the
August UK services PMI was 52.5 versus 52.8; the August composite PMI was 52.5,
in line.
Other
Core manufacturing capital goods continues positive.
https://bonddad.blogspot.com/2026/09/july-manufacturing-core-capital-goods.html
Tariffs
The multifaceted stupidity of Trump’s trade
war with Canada.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2026/08/31/trump-canadian-trade-war-art-stupid-deal/
AI
The
economics/accounting of the AI off balance sheet financing arrangements.
And that’s not all.
If we are in a tech bubble, it is more measured than the dot.com bust.
Investing
The retirement security
challenge that Americans get wrong.
Yields set to rise.
Summary:
US yields are likely to head higher driven by the Iran war and tariffs,
according to Apollo Global Management Chief Economist Torsten Slok. Government
borrowing costs have been surging around the world as investors demand more
compensation to entice them to hold longer-maturity debt. The economic
pressures are seeping through to the housing market as well as the auto sector,
both highly sensitive to increased yields.
Bulls are dancing
near the fire.
https://talkmarkets.com/article/the-bulls-are-dancing-near-the-fire-1788367900
The dichotomy in
valuation measures.
https://talkmarkets.com/article/market-valuation-expensive-cape-or-cheap-peg-1788346804
Luxury overdue for
contrarian bounce.
News on Stocks in Our Portfolios
What
I am reading today
The
generals are worried.
Visit Investing
for Survival’s website (http://investingforsurvival.com/home)
to learn more about our Investment Strategy, Prices Disciplines and Subscriber
Service.
