The Morning Call
2/20/26
The
Market
Technical
Thursday in the
charts.
Thursday in the technical stats.
https://www.barchart.com/stocks/momentum
https://www.barchart.com/stocks/market-performance
https://www.barchart.com/stocks/sectors/rankings
https://www.barchart.com/stocks/signals/new-recommendations
A little lower and
it gets a lot worse.
https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/little-lower-and-it-gets-lot-worse
Pain trade not
over.
Software at the
edge.
https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/software-edge-80-or-air-pocket
Goldman on gold.
https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/goldman-gold-risk-margin-related-liquidation-sell
Fundamental
Headlines
The
Economy
US
December GDP QoQ
growth was 1.4% versus consensus of +3.0%; the December PCE price index was
+3.7% versus +2.8%; the core PCE price index was +2.7% versus +2.6%.
December personal
income was up 0.3%, in line; December personal spending was up 0.4%, also in line.
December building permits
were up 4.8% versus predictions of +4.3%
January pending home
sales fell 0.8% versus forecasts of +1.3%.
International
January Japanese CPI was down 0.2% versus expectations
of +0.3%.
January German PPI was -0.1% versus estimates
of +0.3%.
January UK retail
sales were up 1.8% versus projections of +0.2%; ex fuel, they were up 2.0%
versus +0.2%.
The February flash
EU consumer confidence index came in at -12.2 versus consensus of -11.8.
The February Japanese
flash manufacturing PMI was 52.8 versus predictions of 52.0; the flash services
PMI was 53.8 versus 53.3; the flash composite PMI was 53.8 versus 52.5; the
February German flash manufacturing PMI was 50.7 versus of 49.5; the flash
services PMI was 53.4 versus 52.3; the flash composite PMI was 53.1 versus 52.3;
the February EU flash manufacturing PMI was 50.8 versus of 50.0; the flash
services PMI was 51.8 versus 51.9; the flash composite PMI was 51.9 versus 51.5;
the February UK flash manufacturing PMI was 52.0 versus 51.5; the flash
services PMI was 53.9 versus 53.5; the flash composite PMI was 53.9 versus 53.2.
Other
Output surges
ahead of employment.
https://econbrowser.com/archives/2026/02/business-cycle-indicators-output-surges-ahead-of-employment
Update
on single family and multifamily construction.
AI data centers and
electric power production driving industrial production.
https://bonddad.blogspot.com/2026/02/ai-data-center-and-electricity-supply.html
The Year of the Horse.
4724:
The Year Of The Fire Horse
Overnight
News
Of the 425 S&P
500 companies to have reported so far this earnings season, more than
74% have beaten analysts’ estimates, while nearly 21% have missed.
Inflation
Inflation
may be down, but so is affordability.
https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2026-cost-of-living/?srnd=homepage-americas
Is a price war in
AI about to begin?
https://www.ft.com/content/37c91e08-d13a-45a7-a3a7-acb43fa5522e
The
Financial System
The
canary in the coal mine.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/canary-coal-mine-just-froze-here-what-really-happening-blue-owl
Investing
Expected future S&P earnings.
https://politicalcalculations.blogspot.com/2026/02/winter-2026-snapshot-of-expected-future.html
More positives than negatives.
On
the Other Hand - Carson Group
Past drawdowns versus the current market.
The
Dirty Dozen Equity Drawdowns Versus the Current Market - Carson Group
News
on Stocks in Our Portfolios
What
I am reading today
Department of Homeland
Security data on deported immigrants.
https://www.cato.org/blog/5-ice-detainees-have-violent-convictions-73-no-convictions
The biggest financial scandal in human
history.
The
grift economy is going mainstream.
https://yourbrainonmoney.substack.com/p/everything-is-pretty-much-a-scam
Calculating
your social security breakeven age.
https://alhambrainvestments.com/what-is-my-social-security-break-even-age/
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