An Analysis of Daily Events that Impact Your Money
Friday, October 30, 2026
The Morning Call---Dueling Market scenarios
The Morning Call
10/30/26
The
Market
Technical
Thursday in the
charts.
Thursday in the
technical stats.
https://www.barchart.com/stocks/momentum
https://www.barchart.com/stocks/market-performance
https://www.barchart.com/stocks/sectors/rankings
https://www.barchart.com/stocks/signals/new-recommendations
The great tech
unwind.
Dueling Market scenarios.
Hedge fund
shorting is amplifying risk.
The dollar’s $20
trillion problem,
Friday morning
setup: US futures slide with Nasdaq futures tumbling more than 2%, as the AI
reckoning that started with Alphabet's record plunge claims two more megacaps:
Amazon slides after a capex shock and the slowest e-commerce growth in three
years, while Intel craters 26% after a guide that was "much weaker than
expected"; meanwhile oil keeps climbing on signs the US may resume strikes
against Iran and on an Iranian claim that two oil tankers were hit and stopped
in Hormuz; as a result, the Nasdaq 100 is now tracking its biggest
monthly underperformance against the equal-weighted S&P since 2002,
with its members having wiped out more than $1.2 trillion in market cap this
month. As of 7:30am ET, S&P futures are 1.1% lower at 7,672 while Nasdaq
futures drop about 2.2% (28,970.75 in the Markets at a Glance snapshot) and Dow
futures are up 0.1% at 52,575; Russell 2000 futures are down a more modest
0.5%. The losses come after a session in which the S&P fell 0.3% (and the
Nasdaq 1.4%) even as 406 S&P members rose and the equal-weight index hit
its highest since August, a reminder that the market is rotating rather than
running for the exits. In premarket trading, all Mag 7 names are lower,
led by Amazon (-7.3%), while AI infrastructure stocks tumble after Amazon and
Intel and crypto-linked names slide after Binance suffered the industry's
biggest-ever hack; Amazon's slump confirms our post
from last night. Defensives and the non-AI parts of the market are bid,
with Mondelez, Gilead and Colgate higher. The day's driver is oil (again): Brent
rose as much as 2.5% to around $117.76 as reports keep pointing to US strikes
on Iran after Tuesday's midterms and the Houthis claimed attacks on Saudi oil
facilities, while Exxon and Chevron both posted record refining profits.
Treasuries are higher with the 10Y yield down 3bps to 4.91%, near the lowest in
six weeks, as the tech rout spurs haven demand; bunds and gilts edge higher
while French OATs lag after hotter than expected French inflation. The
Bloomberg dollar index falls 0.3%, its third straight decline, the Swiss franc
outperforms on haven demand and the pound hit the highest since Sept. 16. In
commodities, WTI is up 1.7% at about $103.50, gold slipped below $4,000 and
silver drops 2.6%. Bitcoin is down 1.6% near $77,800 after the Binance hack. US
economic data slate includes 3Q employment cost index (8:30am, est. 0.8%, prior
0.9%) and October MNI Chicago PMI (9:45am, est. 56, prior 58.8). Fed speaker
slate includes Barkin (9:30am), Daly (12pm) and Musalem (12:30pm).
Fundamental
Headlines
The
Economy
US
International
The Q3
German flash GDP grew 0.2% versus forecasts of +0.1%; the October unemployment
rate was 6.4%, in line.
The
Q3 EU flash GDP grew 0.4% versus expectations of +0.2%: the September
unemployment rate was 6.5% versus +6.4%.
The September
Japanese unemployment rate was 2.4% versus 2.5%; September
preliminary industrial production was up 2.2% versus +1.3%; September retail sales fell 0.7% versus +0.6%; September
YoY housing starts were down 2.7% versus +2.9%; September
YoY construction orders were down 11.1% versus -3.0%; October YoY CPI was +2.8%
versus +1.3%; YoY core CPI was up 2.6% versus +2.5%.
Other
More analysis on yesterday’s personal income
and spending reports.
https://bonddad.blogspot.com/2026/10/a-somewhat-negative-personal-income-and.html
Overnight
News
Ukraine shatters strike pause.
Monetary
Policy
The Taylor Rule and the FOMC rate decision.
https://econbrowser.com/archives/2026/10/taylor-rule-and-dissents
The Fed risks falling behind in its inflation
fight.
And probably already has.
https://www.capitalspectator.com/will-the-feds-pause-complicate-the-inflation-fight/
Fiscal
Policy
The $2 trillion gap.
https://www.advisorperspectives.com/commentaries/2026/10/29/mind-2-trillion-gap
The case for a government
stake in the ownership of US companies. (I totally disagree with this proposition.
First, tell me that the ruling class won’t try to exert force on company decisions.
The US’s whole history is a shining example of political/bureaucratic
encroachment on the economy and industry. Second, it provides yet another means
for the ruling class to enrich itself via insider trading. The author points to
the bailouts of the banks and auto companies as an example of the benefits of
government intervention. I would take issue with that. The government should
have let those companies go into Chapter 11. That doesn’t mean the company
ceases to exist. It means that it is reorganized on a more profitable
basis---if that is indeed possible. Old management---the ones whose lousy business
decisions resulted in the bankruptcy itself are canned, instead of being
rewarded with a new lease on life. The inefficiencies/poor decisions are
corrected. And the stock and bond holder suffer the consequences of a bad
investment decision---just like you and I do every day of our lives. No one
bails us out.)
For example:
https://behaviouralinvestment.com/2026/10/27/the-power-and-the-glory-400-years-of-bad-decisions/
Here is the
counter argument for increased government imposing itself into the economy. (it
is a bit long).
https://aier.org/article/the-errors-of-economic-nationalism/ems
The midterms offer
a choice between two brands of socialism.
https://reason.com/2026/10/28/the-midterms-offer-a-choice-between-two-brands-of-socialism/
AI
Anthropic’s IPO just
strengthened the case for AI stocks (This is not a Buy recommendation.)
Counterpoint.
Anthropic showed AI can make money, but the
buildout has to prove it.
Tariffs
All about tariffs.
https://talkmarkets.com/article/all-about-tariffs
The
Financial System
The commercial real estate problem is far from
over.
Investing
News on Stocks in Our Portfolios
What
I am reading today
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Service.
Thursday, October 29, 2026
The Morning Call---Wall Street's debt machine is choking on supply
The Morning Call
10/29/26
The
Market
Technical
Wednesday in the
charts.
Wednesday
in the technical stats.
https://www.barchart.com/stocks/momentum
https://www.barchart.com/stocks/market-performance
https://www.barchart.com/stocks/sectors/rankings
https://www.barchart.com/stocks/signals/new-recommendations
Ten
charts for your Thursday morning viewing pleasure.
Volatility
paradox.
Thursday morning
setup: US futures are lower, with Nasdaq contracts sliding as Alphabet's
ugly search miss revived the "is AI capex paying off" debate,
while Microsoft's Azure beat and lighter capex, a roughly 1% drop in oil on
fresh US-Iran diplomacy chatter and news that Christine Lagarde will quit the
ECB nine months early round out the morning's drivers; as a result small caps
outperform while the 10Y yield hovers just around 5%. As of 7:30am ET, S&P
futures are 0.3% lower at 7,768 while Nasdaq futures are down about 1% and Dow
futures are flat; Russell 2000 futures are up 0.5%. Yesterday the S&P 500
rose 0.28% to 7,744, closing within 1% of its record high after the Fed's
on-hold decision, while the Philly semi index gained 1.75% led by an 11% surge
in Oracle. In premarket trading, Mag 7 names are mixed: Alphabet plunges 10%
after search and advertising sales missed, confirming
our article from last night, while Microsoft rises about 3% after its Azure
beat; software is down 3% (per JPM) after ServiceNow (-18%) and Fortinet
(-26%) disappointed. The day's driver is (again) AI, only this time in
reverse: JPM's desk says the market is trading with a defensive bias, with
the AI theme being sold and Discretionary and Financials bid, "pointing to
the broadening / ex-AI trade." Treasuries extend Wednesday's post-Fed
gains, with yields 1-2bps lower (the 2Y touched 4.67% overnight), as traders
trimmed bets on the pace of Fed hikes after Kevin Warsh's press conference
(December hike odds are now about 80%); gilts and bunds also rise (though lag
Treasuries) as European energy prices retreat. The Bloomberg dollar index is up
0.1%, paring the bulk of its Fed-induced losses, while EUR/USD lingers just
above its year-to-date low into the ECB decision. In commodities, Brent briefly
slipped to a $113 handle after Semafor reported the US is involved in talks on
a temporary peace deal with Iran, even as Iran's IRGC claimed three tankers hit
mines in Hormuz; gold falls 1% but holds above $4,000, silver slides 2.6% and
copper is softer. Bitcoin is down 1.4% after dipping below $80,000. US economic
data slate includes initial jobless claims, Q3 GDP, September personal income,
spending and PCE (all 8:30am). The Fed is in its post-meeting quiet period with
no speakers scheduled; Treasury auctions $44 billion of 7-year notes at 1pm.
Fundamental
Headlines
The
Economy
US
Weekly initial jobless claims totaled 194,000
versus consensus of 199,000.
September personal
income rose 0.2% versus predictions of +0.3%; personal spending was up 0.5%
versus +0.6%.
Q3 (initial estimate)
of GDP growth was +3.4% versus estimates of +3.2%; the PCE price index was
+2.5% versus +2.4%.
The September PCE
index was up 0.5%, in line; the core PCE index was up 0.3%, also in line,
International
The October
Japanese consumer confidence index came in at 35.0 versus expectations of 35.1.
The October EU
economic sentiment index was 96.9 versus forecasts of 97.5; the October industrial
sentiment index was -3.4 versus -3.8; the October services sentiment index was
5.3 versus 5.9; the October consumer confidence index was -17.9, in line.
Other
The inflationary expansion continues.
https://bonddad.blogspot.com/2026/10/the-ai-data-center-driven-manufacturing.html
Iran
Overnight news.
Monetary
Policy
As the universe
knows, the FOMC concluded its October meeting---and surprise, surprise, it left
the Fed Funds rate unchanged.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/fomc-42
The case for not raising
rates. (note the curious argument that the threat of a Fed rate hike is causing
long rates to rise versus Warsh’s position that the long rates help determine
the Fed rate.)
https://talkmarkets.com/article/the-fed-risks-policy-error-fighting-oil-prices
Warsh wants the Fed to be quiet. Instead, it
is as noisy as ever.
Fiscal
Policy
Democratic
economists are already rolling out post elections tax increase proposals. (of
course, dems need enough votes to override a Trump veto)
AI
The bull case for AI Armageddon.
Wall Street’s AI debt machine is starting to
choke on supply.
Summary: Yields are soaring into the double
digits on bonds and loans funding the AI infrastructure buildout, making it
more difficult for bankers to offload risk to insurers and other investors. The
cost of insuring against losses on the debt of companies from Broadcom to
SpaceX and Oracle has spiked, reaching levels more typical of junk-rated
borrowers, as the market for credit default swaps reflects growing concerns
about the potential economic fallout. Citadel Securities is cautioning clients
that even the biggest names in tech could get ensnared as they put their
balance sheets behind scores of projects critical to their AI ambitions, with a
growing disconnect between what Silicon Valley's top executives believe can be
raised and what financiers say they can deliver.
And this doesn’t take
into account debt maturing from loans made in 2020-2023 that needs to be
refinanced.
Investing
A reliable warning light is flashing red.
In high yield,
shorter maybe smarter (Google---high yield, short duration ETF for candidates)
https://www.advisorperspectives.com/commentaries/2026/10/28/high-yield-shorter-may-smarter
News on Stocks in Our Portfolios
What
I am reading today
From
1215 to 2026.
https://lawliberty.org/from-1215-to-2026/
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for Survival’s website (http://investingforsurvival.com/home)
to learn more about our Investment Strategy, Prices Disciplines and Subscriber
Service.
Wednesday, October 28, 2026
The Morning Call---BofA says defendive froth is a feature of a bubble market
The Morning Call
10/28/26
The
Market
Technical
Tuesday in the charts.
Tuesday in the technical stats.
https://www.barchart.com/stocks/momentum
https://www.barchart.com/stocks/market-performance
https://www.barchart.com/stocks/sectors/rankings
https://www.barchart.com/stocks/signals/new-recommendations
Improving breadth could be a
Market negative.
BofA says defensive froth is
a feature of a bubble market.
Wednesday
morning setup: US futures are higher, if only in Nasdaq terms, as a memory-chip
frenzy sparked by SK Hynix's blowout results revives the AI trade ahead of
today's Fed decision and tonight's Alphabet and Microsoft earnings, while oil
jumps after the WSJ reported the US told Gulf allies to prepare for a short,
intense military campaign against Iran after the midterms; as a result the 10Y
yield is back above 5%. As of 8:00am ET, S&P futures are up 0.2% while
Nasdaq futures rise 0.6% and Dow futures slip 0.1%, a day after the S&P
closed 0.6% higher at 7,723 and the Nasdaq 100 jumped 1.3% for its best day in
over a month (even if roughly 60% of S&P names closed lower). In premarket
trading memory names lead the way, with Micron and Sandisk both up about 4%,
while Alphabet tops the Mag 7 after a report that OpenAI intends to buy
Google's AI chips; on the other side, Robinhood, NXP and Enphase tumble after
disappointing earnings. The day's driver is the Fed (and then the
hyperscalers): a hold at 3.75%-4.00% is all but certain, so the focus is on
the vote split and how hawkish Chair Warsh sounds with a December hike nearly
fully priced, while the AI rebound gets its real test after the close.
Treasuries are slightly cheaper with yields within a basis point of Tuesday's
close as rising oil puts upward pressure on yields; the 2Y is at 4.74%, up for
a fourth day. The Bloomberg dollar index is up 0.1%, edging toward a 17-month
high, the euro sits near a 17-month low around 1.1125 and the kiwi tumbles
after the RBNZ unexpectedly held rates. Brent rises toward $115.6 and WTI
trades near $102, European gas hovers near a four-year high, gold slips 0.7% to
about $4,030 and copper dips. Bitcoin is up 0.9% and back above $81,000. US
economic data slate includes advance goods trade balance, wholesale and retail
inventories (8:30am) and the FOMC rate decision (2pm), followed by Chair
Warsh's press conference (2:30pm); the Bank of Canada decides at 9:45am, and
Treasury sells $30 billion of 2-year FRNs and $75 billion of 17-week bills at
11:30am.
https://cms.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/inline-images/Market%20Snapshot%20-%202026-10-28.jpg
Fundamental
Headlines
The
Economy
US
Weekly mortgage
applications were up 3.4% while purchase applications were up 3.8%.
Month to date retail
chain store sales were up 9.5% versus +9.0% in the prior week.
The August home
price index was up 0.3% versus estimates
of +0.2%; the August Case Shiller home price index was down 0.4% versus -0.1%.
September
new home sales fell 0.6% versus expectations of -3.5%.
https://bonddad.blogspot.com/2026/10/new-home-sales-and-repeat-home-prices.html
The Q3 Atlanta Fed
GDP nowcast was revised from +3,5% to +3.4%.
The
October consumer confidence index came in at 91.7 versus consensus of 81.0.
The October
Richmond Fed manufacturing index was -2 versus predictions of 0.
International
The November
German consumer confidence index was reported at -30.8 versus forecasts of
-30.9.
Other
Iran
Overnight news:
The U.S. has told
several Gulf Arab countries to be prepared for a short, intense military
campaign after the U.S. midterm elections, people briefed on the conversations
said.
Qatari mediators
presented Iran with a new draft deal on Sunday to end the war, which Tehran is
considering and expected to send a response to by the end of the week, an
official briefed on the negotiations says.
A senior Iranian
official later said Qatar has not presented a new proposal to end hostilities
between Iran and the US and that Tehran's policy of showing no flexibility over
the nuclear issue remains unchanged.
The US told ships
to avoid unnecessary transits through the Strait of Hormuz.
The United Nations
nuclear watchdog said it hasn’t detected any efforts by Iran to rebuild nuclear
facilities damaged in US and Israeli strikes over the past two years, even as
Tehran continues to block inspectors’ access to most of its atomic sites.
Monetary
Policy
To raise or not to raise?
https://www.capitalspectator.com/warshs-hawkish-rhetoric-meets-an-inflation-reality-check/
Fiscal
Policy
The cruelty of government consumption.
AI
No
signs of an AI payoff outside of the tech sector.
With Anthropic IPO, the devil is in the
details.
The biggest takeaways from Anthropic’s IPO.
Some
lenders are getting cold feet.
Who is afraid of AI?
Your job may survive AI, but your salary may
not.
https://newsletter.drorpoleg.com/p/ai-doesnt-have-to-replace-you-to
Tariffs
Another example of Trump’s misguided tariff
regime.
Investing
Managing a bubble.
Short termism and
stock price discovery.
Five myths about
investing in the stock market.
The path to lower interest
rates.
The life insurers most exposed to the AI debt binge.
News on Stocks in Our Portfolios
What
I am reading today
How
the Egyptians built the pyramids.
Rethinking
how the Egyptians built the pyramids | National Geographic
It is not a prank; you are an a**hole.
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for Survival’s website (http://investingforsurvival.com/home)
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Service.