The Morning Call
9/11/26
The
Market
Technical
Thursday in the
charts.
Note: the fall continues. Yesterday, the S&P ended below (1) its
former all time high and (2) its 50 DMA (now support; if it stays there through
the close today, it will revert to resistance). The latter, of course, is the first serious
challenge to the longer term momentum, though admittedly not a disaster. Still, it leaves me comfortable sitting on my
hands. To be sure, it is not time to run
for the hills; so, if this decline continues, there will be buying opportunities. In my opinion, not just yet. There is one
point of good news---both Wednesday and Thursday experienced gap down opens
which should provide some near term upward pull.
Thursday in the techincial
stats.
https://www.barchart.com/stocks/momentum
https://www.barchart.com/stocks/market-performance
https://www.barchart.com/stocks/sectors/rankings
https://www.barchart.com/stocks/signals/new-recommendations
The 50 DMA has
been above the 200 DMA for 300 days. Is
that a sign of potential trouble?
https://www.stockmarketmedia.com/2026-09-10/300-days-trend-really-old
Nonfundamental
headwinds.
Widening gap
between macro stress and risk premiums.
Gold at important juncture.
Friday morning
setup (written before news of the attack on the Saudi pipeline and the CPI
report): Futures are higher thanks to an overnight retreat in oil prices
(which is unlikely to hold now that Houthi
rebels effectively control the entire Red Sea) and bond yields which track
oil tick for tick, but the tone could quickly shift with the week’s biggest
catalyst, August CPI data, due before the cash open. As of 8:00am ET,
S&P and Nasdaq futures gain 0.6% with Mag 7 stocks are mostly higher,
led by AMZN (+0.6%) and META (+0.7%). In premarket trading, ORCL rose 7% as its
AI cloud backlog beat estimates. MSFT is planning to more than triple its data
center capacity to ease computing shortages. WTI crude fell 3% overnight
amid the report that Gulf states are weighing a meeting with Iranian officials
to discuss the future of the Strait, the first gathering since the war
began more than six months ago. Oil is on track for a 8% jump since Monday, and
the International Energy Agency warned higher prices would hit consumption.
Bond yields are 1-3bp lower although they remain sticky near 3 year highs: 2Y
and 10Y yields are 3.2bp and 2.4bp lower, respectively. While the meeting
itself was net positive for risk assets, the situation in the Middle East
remains uncertain, particularly regarding renewed developments in Yemen, as Houthi
rebels seize a key Yemeni port city and struck Saudi oil infrastructure. US
retail diesel prices topped $6 a gallon for the first time. Commodities are
mostly lower except for precious metals. All eyes are on CPI at 8:30 am
ET. We also get the September preliminary UMich sentiment (10 a.m.), 2Q
household change in net worth (12 p.m.) and August federal budget balance (2
p.m.). Fed speakers remain in external communications blackout period
ahead of Sept. 15-16 FOMC meeting
Fundamental
Headlines
The
Economy
US
August existing home
sales fell 2.0% versus estimates of -0.2%.
https://bonddad.blogspot.com/2026/09/the-same-suboptimal-stagnant-existing.html
August CPI was up 0.4%, in line; core CPI was
up 0.3% versus +0.2%.
International
July
UK GDP grew 0.4% versus projections of 0.0%; the July trade balance was -L3.5 billion
versus -L4.0 billion; July YoY construction output fell 2.5% versus -2.3%; July YoY industrial production was up 0.6% versus +0.2%.
August
Japanese PPI came in at -0.2% versus consensus of 0.0%.
Other
Is the middle class disappearing?
Update on US/China trade.
https://politicalcalculations.blogspot.com/2026/09/us-china-trade-rises-for-third.html
Iran
Overnight news.
Fiscal
Policy
The budget math.
https://www.foxnews.com/opinion/congress-spends-7-trillion-heres-math-works-100
The
Market’s judgment on fiscal policy is getting harsher.
https://www.capitalspectator.com/bond-markets-verdict-on-washington-is-turning-harsher/
America is losing its captive creditors.
https://giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/actions/redeem/e00cf669-7eee-4b71-b266-5756b24fbb41
On the other hand, yesterday’s auction saw
huge demand.
But then, Bessent’s buyback turned sour.
Inflation
The next food price surge.
AI
Congress could kill AI before it kills us.
A
more balanced evaluation of the risks AI could pose.
https://calnewport.com/anthropic-just-threatened-to-kill-billions-of-people-this-is-not-okay/
The growing risk of air pockets in AI
buildout.
Investing
The bull market’s
biggest enemy?
News (but not a buy recommendation) on
Stocks in Our Portfolios
Intuit
ResMed
https://www.morningstar.com/stocks/4-undervalued-stocks-that-just-raised-dividends-3
What
I am reading today
Americans
are losing faith in capitalism.
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