The Morning Call---Are stocks priced for peak earnings?

 

The Morning Call

 

11/13/26

 

This week kicks off my annual fund raising drive that helps keep me working for you. Just go to the Donate button and enter the amount. Any monies will be appreciated.

 

The Market

         

    Technical

 

            Thursday in the charts.

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/bitcoin-bonds-bullion-battered-brent-bid-big-tech-bounces-after-jensen-job-loss?gift=eyJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiIsInR5cCI6IkpXVCJ9.eyJuaWQiOiIxMTMyMDg2Iiwic2VuZGVyVWlkIjoiUUhnc3BaZVVFS2E3RHhXM216eFlKbjhaWEFoMiIsImlhdCI6MTc5NDUyMDU3NiwiZXhwIjoxNzk3MTEyNTc2LCJhdWQiOiJ6aC1naWZ0In0.2xXbaU5jgh8PCpvXCptxqs3X3PSV-6WrT_uV3TBO87o

 

            Thursday in the technical stats.

            https://www.barchart.com/stocks/momentum

            https://www.barchart.com/stocks/market-performance

            https://www.barchart.com/stocks/sectors/rankings

            https://www.barchart.com/stocks/signals/new-recommendations

 

Friday morning setup: US futures are higher as traders move on from the Nvidia leadership shock and shrug off a global Microsoft outage that is now in its second day, while the IEA's call that the oil market is swinging to a surplus and a rebound in short-dated Treasuries take some of the edge off the week's bond rout heading into the PPI report. As of 8:00 am ET, S&P futures are 0.3% higher while Nasdaq futures rise 0.1% and Dow futures add 0.2%. On Thursday, the S&P fell 0.4%, the Nasdaq 100 slipped 0.3% and the Russell 2000 tumbled 1.7% after Nvidia plunged as much as 14% at the open on Jensen Huang's ouster before retail dip buyers dragged it back to a 4.3% loss, confirming our post on the record opening retail bid. In premarket trading, Mag 7 stocks are all higher except Microsoft (-2.7%), which is struggling to restore access to Outlook, Teams and Copilot; Nvidia rises 3% and Alphabet 1.1%, while Cerebras jumps 17% on blowout guidance and new deals with Oracle and Microsoft, and Modine soars more than 20% on a report that Samsung is in talks to buy it. The day's driver is inflation (again): October PPI at 8:30am is expected to rise 0.4% m/m after September's 1.3% surge and comes after a hot CPI and a Treasury selloff that left a December hike fully priced. Treasuries are mixed, with the 2Y yield down 4bps to 4.84% as traders trim hike bets on the dip in oil, while the 10Y is little changed around 5.12% after jumping 13.5bps on Thursday; the combined Tuesday and Thursday jump in 10Y yields was the biggest since April 2025. The Bloomberg dollar index steadies after hitting an 18-month high, USD/JPY hovers just under 160 amid more Japanese jawboning and the Aussie slides to its weakest since January. Brent trades near $96 and WTI slips to $88.42 as the IEA's surplus call offsets Trump saying the US doesn't need a deal with Iran; gold rebounds to around $3,900 but stays well below $4,000, and Bitcoin is down 3% below $70,000. US economic data slate includes October PPI (8:30am). Fed speaker slate includes Goolsbee (8:30am on CNBC), Collins (9:10am and 10:35am), Logan (9:40am), Bowman (10:50am), Daly (12pm) and Jefferson (7pm).

https://cms.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/inline-images/ZH_Wrap_-_Markets_at_a_Glance_-_13_Nov_2026_1794576312388.jpg

 

 

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

 

                          October existing home sales fell 5.5% versus estimates of +0.3%.

                          https://talkmarkets.com/article/existing-home-sales-plunge-to-a-new-16-year

 

Note: I have no problem with the above numbers and the author’s conclusion. But I would dispute the notion that a 7% mortgage is somehow extreme. I bought my first house in 1970 and the mortgage carried a 7% interest rate. That was normal and I didn’t think anything about it. What is not normal is the absurdly low rates of the past decade resulting from the QE’s. If a 7% mortgage is now considered abnormal and it is a leading cause of low home sales, then new and existing home sales will stay low until the generation that thinks 7% mortgages are too high gets a lesson in economics.

                       

The October federal budget deficit was $404 billion versus expectations of $298 billion.

                                                  https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/us-budget-deficit-explodes-worst-october-record-us-treasury-historic-surge-defense-spending

 

October PPI was up 0.3% versus consensus of +0.4%; core PPI was up 0.3%, in line.

                                  https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/rate-hike-odds-steady-energy-ai-lift-producer-price-inflation-4-year-high

 

                        International

 

The September EU trade balance was -E10.3 billion versus projections of -E4.5 billion; Q3 employment was flat versus an increase of 0.2%; the Q3 (2^nd estimate) GDP grew 0.4%, in line.

 

October German PPI came in at +0.4%, in line.

 

                        Other

 

                          A review of current households debts.

                          https://wolfstreet.com/2026/11/11/household-debts-debt-to-income-ratios-delinquencies-foreclosures-collections-bankruptcies-in-q3-2026/

 

                          More detail on yesterday’s jobless claims number.

                          https://bonddad.blogspot.com/2026/11/its-still-historically-low-fire-economy.html

 

            Iran

 

              Iran considers withdrawing from nuclear nonproliferation treaty.

                  https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/powerful-iranian-clerical-body-declares-exiting-nuclear-treaty-national-demand

 

            Fiscal Policy

 

              The premium on US Treasury debt is gone.

              https://www.brookings.edu/articles/is-the-us-exorbitant-privilege-eroding/

 

              Part two

              https://klementoninvesting.substack.com/p/treasuries-lose-their-haven-status

 

              Trump’s equity deals and the senate defense bill.

              https://www.cato.org/blog/trumps-equity-deals-senate-defense-bill

 

            Inflation

 

              The inflation fight may be about to turn ugly.

                          https://www.wsj.com/finance/investing/the-inflation-fight-may-be-about-to-turn-painful-1d053d79?st=znN5wn&reflink=desktopwebshare_permalink

 

            2027

 

              Goldman’s first try at the 2027 playbook.

  https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/goldmans-2027-playbook?gift=eyJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiIsInR5cCI6IkpXVCJ9.eyJuaWQiOiIxMTMyMTYxIiwic2VuZGVyVWlkIjoiUUhnc3BaZVVFS2E3RHhXM216eFlKbjhaWEFoMiIsImlhdCI6MTc5NDU3NzgyMiwiZXhwIjoxNzk3MTY5ODIyLCJhdWQiOiJ6aC1naWZ0In0.uYyDMRdEZevhttKsBRWCRLygaVKvSKAmsnDq_EO8hx0

 

 

            AI

 

              Ignoring AI’s potential.

              https://trendlabs.com/an-unrestrained-demon/

 

              But we can’t ignore Nvidia.

                          https://quoththeraven.substack.com/p/i-still-think-theres-more-bad-news?r=1ng8jx&utm_campaign=post-expanded-share&utm_medium=web

 

              No one can fill Jensen’s leather jacket.

  https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/no-one-can-fill-jensens-leather-jacket-14-banks-weigh-wall-street-hunts-nvidias-floor-after?gift=eyJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiIsInR5cCI6IkpXVCJ9.eyJuaWQiOiIxMTMyMDQ1Iiwic2VuZGVyVWlkIjoiUUhnc3BaZVVFS2E3RHhXM216eFlKbjhaWEFoMiIsImlhdCI6MTc5NDUzNzg3NywiZXhwIjoxNzk3MTI5ODc3LCJhdWQiOiJ6aC1naWZ0In0.ag4q09WaeLR7ALiNwXGDan4-sUqoqYfsR17hrsAxbXo

 

           

Shunning immigrants could cost the US the lead in AI. (It is one thing to aggressively deport criminals and felons. It is another to prevent qualified, highly skilled workers from entering our labor force.)

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2026-11-12/immigration-policy-could-cost-us-its-ai-lead-over-china?accessToken=eyJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiIsInR5cCI6IkpXVCJ9.eyJzb3VyY2UiOiJTdWJzY3JpYmVyR2lmdGVkQXJ0aWNsZSIsImlhdCI6MTc5NDUwODQwMywiZXhwIjoxNzk1MTEzMjAzLCJhcnRpY2xlSWQiOiJUT0RZS1ZWVFREMEMwMCIsImJjb25uZWN0SWQiOiJCMzFCNTRDQTI3MTE0NjAxOUQxMURCN0IxRUM4NTE2MyJ9.dFSuYKo0EzckkK_DWsNcJWtbGGqwkcTUuAQ72tTSRKU

 

 

     Investing

 

            Are stocks priced for peak earnings?

            https://www.carsongroup.com/insights/blog/earnings-check-in-priced-like-a-peak/

 

            The latest from Goldman.

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/landlords-win-middlemen-lose-fed-cant-look-through-anything-goldmans-top-10-charts?gift=eyJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiIsInR5cCI6IkpXVCJ9.eyJuaWQiOiIxMTMyMDgyIiwic2VuZGVyVWlkIjoiUUhnc3BaZVVFS2E3RHhXM216eFlKbjhaWEFoMiIsImlhdCI6MTc5NDUxNjI1MSwiZXhwIjoxNzk3MTA4MjUxLCJhdWQiOiJ6aC1naWZ0In0.VWj9KrOyuz-P3EEZ_y_qjhpnWYWrxOvEm82V_7xGpzY

 

 

            Timeless lessons.

                Blue Wave, Red Wave, Green Wave, And Timeless Lessons - Wealth Management - Carson Group

 

            The bond market faces a reality check.

            https://www.capitalspectator.com/the-bond-rally-faces-a-reality-check/

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

 

 

What I am reading today

 

            How weird is this?

            https://davidgerard.co.uk/blockchain/2026/11/10/the-ethereum-foundation-is-officially-a-corporate-suicide-cult/

           

 

Visit Investing for Survival’s website (http://investingforsurvival.com/home) to learn more about our Investment Strategy, Prices Disciplines and Subscriber Service.

 

 

 

The Morning Call---A new development in AI; and no, it isn't Jensen's resignation

 

The Morning Call

 

11/12/26

 

This week kicks off my annual fund raising drive that helps keep me working for you. Just go to the Donate button and enter the amount. Any monies will be appreciated.

 

The Market

         

    Technical

 

            Wednesday in the charts.

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/bond-vigilantes-away-stocks-will-play-neocloud-surge-erases-nasdaqs-post-election-losses?gift=eyJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiIsInR5cCI6IkpXVCJ9.eyJuaWQiOiIxMTMxOTQ0Iiwic2VuZGVyVWlkIjoiUUhnc3BaZVVFS2E3RHhXM216eFlKbjhaWEFoMiIsImlhdCI6MTc5NDQzMjAyMiwiZXhwIjoxNzk3MDI0MDIyLCJhdWQiOiJ6aC1naWZ0In0.ecTaJVvvJ1NOCQHFJJI8I9wZOUJS8489An50xKzIfnE

 

            Wednesday in the technical stats.

            https://www.barchart.com/stocks/momentum

            https://www.barchart.com/stocks/market-performance

            https://www.barchart.com/stocks/sectors/rankings

            https://www.barchart.com/stocks/signals/new-recommendations

           

            Buy the fear.

            https://talkmarkets.com/article/buy-the-fear-sell-the-cheer

 

            Silver specs have hardly ever been this short.

https://www.zerohedge.com/precious-metals/silver-specs-have-never-been-short-squeeze-finally-here?gift=eyJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiIsInR5cCI6IkpXVCJ9.eyJuaWQiOiIxMTMxOTM5Iiwic2VuZGVyVWlkIjoiUUhnc3BaZVVFS2E3RHhXM216eFlKbjhaWEFoMiIsImlhdCI6MTc5NDQzMTMxOSwiZXhwIjoxNzk3MDIzMzE5LCJhdWQiOiJ6aC1naWZ0In0.n9-rlUhIq-BWiWp_PuCNIQdxNAd8aj0BlR-moG3WmMw

 

Thursday morning setup: US futures are lower, led by a slide in Nasdaq contracts, after Nvidia's board started hunting for a replacement for Jensen Huang following reports of multiple extramarital affairs, including one with an alleged Chinese spy, turning the AI trade's central bank into its biggest single risk; meanwhile the haven bid sent long-end Treasuries higher and 30Y yields as low as 5.32%. As of 8:20am ET, S&P futures are down 0.7%, while Nasdaq futures are 1.5% lower; Dow futures are down 0.4% as money rotates out of tech. That follows a session in which the S&P rose 1.3% to 7,619 and the Philly semis index soared 5.7% as CoreWeave's results eased fears about AI spending, erasing the Nasdaq's post-midterm losses. Premarket, Nvidia is down 6-7% after sliding as much as 9% after hours, confirming our report from last night, while the rest of the Mag 7 is little changed and Nvidia's rivals are feasting on the carnage: AMD is up 4% and Broadcom 2.9%, while neoclouds and AI hardware names such as CoreWeave and Super Micro slump. The day's driver is Nvidia (and its HR department): the board is meeting to decide Huang's fate, is working with an outside firm to find candidates, and some directors favor CFO Colette Kress as interim CEO; Democratic senators want records on Nvidia chip exports to China preserved, days before Xi hosts Trump in Shenzhen. In rates, long-end Treasuries rose as cash trading resumed after the Veterans Day holiday, with the curve twisting flatter as the short end underperforms; the 10Y is flat near 4.99% and swaps still price 28bps of Fed hikes in December, i.e., a certain quarter-point move and a small chance of a jumbo half-point hike. The Bloomberg dollar index dipped 0.1% after touching its highest since May 2025, and the yen hovers just below 160 despite more jawboning from Tokyo. In commodities, oil slipped toward a two-month low near $86 WTI despite Iran saying two supertankers were halted by explosions in Hormuz, gold fell 1% to about $3,950 after failing to hold $4,000, and copper is lower; bitcoin is down 1% around $73,500. US economic data slate includes initial jobless claims (8:30am), October existing home sales (10am) and the October federal budget balance (2pm). Fed speaker slate includes Hammack (9am), Barr (10am), Goolsbee (11:15am), Daly (1:10pm), Schmid (1:30pm) and Williams (6:30pm). The Treasury sells $25 billion of 30-year bonds at 1pm.

                        https://cms.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/inline-images/ZH_Wrap_-_Markets_at_a_Glance_-_12_Nov_2026_1794489780207.jpg

 

                       

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

 

                          Weekly initial jobless claims totaled 200,000 versus consensus of 195,000.

                           https://www.zerohedge.com/personal-finance/claims-57-year-lows-sentiment-near-record-lows-hires-rate-stuck-34-labor-markets

 

                        International

 

The preliminary Q3 UK GDP grew 0.7%, in line; September GDP was up 0.2% versus 0.0%; September industrial production increased 0.3% versus -0.3%; the September trade balance was -L5.13 billion versus -L1.6 billion; September construction orders were up 0.8% versus -0.1%.

 

 

                        Other

 

                          When rising interest rates signal economic strength.

                          https://hbr.org/2026/11/when-rising-interest-rates-signal-economic-strength-and-when-they-signal-risk

           

                          PCE deflator nowcasts.

                          https://econbrowser.com/archives/2026/11/the-whites-of-their-eyes

                       

                          Current economic growth is being fueled almost entirely by the AI spend.

                          https://bonddad.blogspot.com/2026/11/leading-employment-indicators-real.html

 

Monetary Policy

 

  Goldman expects third hike in March 2027.

  https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/goldman-now-expects-third-rate-hike-march-2027-followed-rate-cuts-starting-december-2027?gift=eyJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiIsInR5cCI6IkpXVCJ9.eyJuaWQiOiIxMTMxODk2Iiwic2VuZGVyVWlkIjoiUUhnc3BaZVVFS2E3RHhXM216eFlKbjhaWEFoMiIsImlhdCI6MTc5NDQyOTcyMywiZXhwIjoxNzk3MDIxNzIzLCJhdWQiOiJ6aC1naWZ0In0.CmojQhN3HIkmlzPf1FF-MY6VBQg5rFqQDI8HViSSEfQ

 

 

  The Fed’s perpetual state of indecision.

  https://www.wsj.com/economy/central-banking/fed-forced-to-confront-case-for-bigger-and-faster-rate-rises-ac181706?st=LrpL41&reflink=desktopwebshare_permalink

 

                           How the Fed is quietly generating more inflation.

              https://talkmarkets.com/article/how-the-fed-is-quietly-generating-more-inflation-again

 

                       

                        AI

 

              A new development in AI.

              https://talkmarkets.com/article/the-ai-bubbles-biggest-weakness

 

              Jensen resigns.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/jensen-huang-resigns-ceo-nvidia-stock-plunges

 

              Junk buyers have left the AI funding building.

  https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/who-funds-data-center-pipeline-now-junk-buyers-have-left-building?gift=eyJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiIsInR5cCI6IkpXVCJ9.eyJuaWQiOiIxMTMxOTg2Iiwic2VuZGVyVWlkIjoiUUhnc3BaZVVFS2E3RHhXM216eFlKbjhaWEFoMiIsImlhdCI6MTc5NDQ5MTMyMiwiZXhwIjoxNzk3MDgzMzIyLCJhdWQiOiJ6aC1naWZ0In0.g-_1mxc6y7tB7MyRs7HyzlhMWXa1lPRt-TCTDLvCKVs

 

 

            Tariffs

 

              The price of protectionists policies.

              https://thedailyeconomy.org/article/voters-hated-tariffs-here-are-the-receipts/

 

              US/China trade now above pre tariff war level.

             https://politicalcalculations.blogspot.com/2026/11/us-china-trade-value-exceeds-pre-tariff.html

 

     Investing

 

            It’s called the tech bubble for a reason.

            https://chartkidmatt.com/p/it-s-called-the-tech-bubble-for-a-reason

 

            The latest from John Hussman.

            https://www.advisorperspectives.com/commentaries/2026/11/11/free-money-bubble

 

            Being wrong about gold.

                        https://www.wsj.com/finance/investing/im-always-wrong-about-gold-you-probably-are-too-2c6ac551?st=FrcCyE&reflink=desktopwebshare_permalink

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

 

 

What I am reading today

 

            The cruel irony of Veteran’s Day.

                        https://quoththeraven.substack.com/p/the-cruel-irony-of-veterans-day?r=1ng8jx&utm_campaign=post-expanded-share&utm_medium=web

 

            We owe James K Polk a debt of gratitude.

            https://www.realclearmarkets.com/articles/2026/11/11/we_owe_james_k_polk_gratitude_he_was_my_kind_of_guy_1216179.html

 

Visit Investing for Survival’s website (http://investingforsurvival.com/home) to learn more about our Investment Strategy, Prices Disciplines and Subscriber Service.

 

 

 

The Morning Call---Up or down?

 

The Morning Call

 

11/11/26

 

This week kicks off my annual fund raising drive that helps keep me working for you. Just go to the Donate button and enter the amount. I know many websites are free, but most include a premium membership that requires a subscription to access to the most informative articles. Subscriptions that I pay and provide my readers the content for free. Any monies will be appreciated---even as little as a dollar a week or a month will help.

 

The Market

         

    Technical

 

            Tuesday in the charts.

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/hot-cpi-hawkish-fedspeak-hammer-markets-bonds-stocks-bullion-battered-dollar-spikes?gift=eyJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiIsInR5cCI6IkpXVCJ9.eyJuaWQiOiIxMTMxNzc0Iiwic2VuZGVyVWlkIjoiUUhnc3BaZVVFS2E3RHhXM216eFlKbjhaWEFoMiIsImlhdCI6MTc5NDM0NTU2MywiZXhwIjoxNzk2OTM3NTYzLCJhdWQiOiJ6aC1naWZ0In0.n__RX9ROECFtwIyui1i62TecQQzYLgI5utQvPnPf_cI

 

            Tuesday in the technical stats.

            https://www.barchart.com/stocks/momentum

            https://www.barchart.com/stocks/market-performance

            https://www.barchart.com/stocks/sectors/rankings

            https://www.barchart.com/stocks/signals/new-recommendations

 

            Thoughts on Market direction after the sell off and bounce.

 

              The real test lies ahead.

              https://www.capitalspectator.com/stocks-rebound-but-the-real-test-lies-ahead/

 

              The seduction of market bounces on the way down.

                           https://quoththeraven.substack.com/p/the-seduction-of-market-bounces-on?r=1ng8jx&utm_campaign=post-expanded-share&utm_medium=web

 

              The problem with Monday’s meltup.

  https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/leaving-vapor-trails-nomuras-mcelligott-says-mondays-melt-was-vanna-machine-and-machine?gift=eyJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiIsInR5cCI6IkpXVCJ9.eyJuaWQiOiIxMTMxNzQ5Iiwic2VuZGVyVWlkIjoiUUhnc3BaZVVFS2E3RHhXM216eFlKbjhaWEFoMiIsImlhdCI6MTc5NDM0NjQ2NiwiZXhwIjoxNzk2OTM4NDY2LCJhdWQiOiJ6aC1naWZ0In0.o9P_Gnqln9tJM_QAw1uskCNXARdqI-r-gdTB4DqbY74

 

              One last flush.

  https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/buy-rumor-sell-news-wilson-says-correction-needs-one-last-flush-7100-year-end-rally?gift=eyJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiIsInR5cCI6IkpXVCJ9.eyJuaWQiOiIxMTMxNzYwIiwic2VuZGVyVWlkIjoiUUhnc3BaZVVFS2E3RHhXM216eFlKbjhaWEFoMiIsImlhdCI6MTc5NDM0NzM5MywiZXhwIjoxNzk2OTM5MzkzLCJhdWQiOiJ6aC1naWZ0In0.5IIHN1nKp6VEh2ppJh3xx8P3V1k9bvHs2g9mHDuR6Tk

 

              Is the puke finally over?

  https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/ai-puke-finally-over-jpmorgan-says-capitulation-far-along-and-tells-clients-buy?gift=eyJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiIsInR5cCI6IkpXVCJ9.eyJuaWQiOiIxMTMxNzM3Iiwic2VuZGVyVWlkIjoiUUhnc3BaZVVFS2E3RHhXM216eFlKbjhaWEFoMiIsImlhdCI6MTc5NDM0Nzk0MSwiZXhwIjoxNzk2OTM5OTQxLCJhdWQiOiJ6aC1naWZ0In0.rKndgd6wine8lV-UZgCyblXZTWxthXbjX-rk-neauDw

 

Wednesday morning setup: US futures are higher as a trifecta of AI catalysts, i) CoreWeave's beat-and-raise, ii) reports that Anthropic's bankers are weighing an IPO valuation of $1.5 trillion or more and iii) word that OpenAI's quarterly revenue hit $10 billion for the first time, revived the battered tech trade and helped markets shrug off Tuesday's hot CPI hangover, even as oil rebounded after Iran's IRGC claimed two tankers hit mines in the Strait of Hormuz; as a result Nasdaq futures have more than recouped Tuesday's losses while cash Treasuries, closed for Veterans Day, sit just shy of 5% on the 10Y. As of 8:15 am ET, S&P futures are up 0.9% while Nasdaq 100 futures rise 1.8% and Dow futures are up 0.2%. On Tuesday the S&P 500 recovered from its session low to close down just 0.4% at 7,521 after the hotter than expected CPI print and hawkish Fedspeak; without Nvidia and Microsoft it would have finished in the green. Premarket, semis are surging, with SOXX up 5.2% and DRAM up 8%, Nvidia is up 5.1% and the Mag 7 are mostly higher; CoreWeave jumps 13% after boosting its annual revenue forecast and easing fears about its debt-laden business (some of which we flagged last night), pushing Nebius and Marvell higher with it. The day's driver is AI (again): with hedge funds having cut risk at the steepest pace in more than a decade, positioning, not macro, is doing the heavy lifting for the tape, per Goldman's Rich Privorotsky. With the cash bond market shut, 10Y TSY futures are down about 6 ticks, indicating yields back over 5%, as Fed hike bets grow: a December 25bp hike is fully priced with some odds of 50bps, and Goldman added a third hike for March. The dollar is modestly firmer, with the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index up 0.1% and USD/JPY briefly topping 159 for the first time since late September. In commodities, Brent snapped a two-day losing streak, rising about 2% to above $93 on Iranian rhetoric, the Hormuz mine claims and a drone attack on Russia's Ust-Luga port; gold is up 0.4% to around $4,050 and silver jumps 2.7%. Bitcoin is a touch lower around $73,600. The US economic data slate is limited to MBA mortgage applications at 7am; there are no Fed speakers on the schedule. US stock markets are open, but the bond market is closed for Veterans Day.

            https://cms.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/inline-images/ZH_Wrap_-_Markets_at_a_Glance_-_11_Nov_2026_1794401371789.jpg

 

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

 

Weekly mortgage applications rose 6.2% while purchase applications were up 7.5%.

 

Month to date retail chain store sales were up 10.1% versus +10.4% in the prior week.

 

                        International

 

October Japanese YoY machine tool orders were up 42.5% versus forecasts of +54.5%.

 

October German CPI fell 0.2%, in line.

 

                        Other

 

                          Inside yesterday’s CPI.

                          https://bonddad.blogspot.com/2026/11/october-cpi-another-hot-month-for.html

 

            Iran

 

              Iran throws a monkey wrench in the nuclear talks.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/iran-rejects-transferring-single-atom-enriched-uranium-its-territory

 

            Fiscal Policy

 

              Social Security deficit blows out.

                          https://wolfstreet.com/2026/11/09/social-security-deficit-blows-out-trust-fund-income-costs-deficits-and-interest-rates-in-fiscal-2026/

 

            The Election

 

              More questions than answers.

              https://alhambrapartners.com/weekly-market-pulse-more-questions-than-answers/?src=news

 

            AI

 

              Why Nvidia’s nightmare may be just beginning.

                          https://quoththeraven.substack.com/p/why-nvidias-nightmare-may-be-just?r=1ng8jx&utm_campaign=post-expanded-share&utm_medium=web

           

Is there an AI bubble?

            https://matteoraso.github.io/im-not-convinced-the-ai-bubble-exists.html

 

            AI power stocks tumble.

https://x.com/rauchg/status/2101186741042663579?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E2101186741042663579%7Ctwgr%5Ef740dc252dc2322e6ed06c3b27409921687b9a86%7Ctwcon%5Es1_c10&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.zerohedge.com%2Fmarkets%2Fai-power-stocks-tumble-softbanks-write-down-deepens-bubble-fears

 

            How much of the proposed AI buildout will actually get done?

https://www.zerohedge.com/technology/gigawatts-vs-bragawatts-586gw-announced-199-real-mapping-who-actually-building-americas?gift=eyJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiIsInR5cCI6IkpXVCJ9.eyJuaWQiOiIxMTMxODI5Iiwic2VuZGVyVWlkIjoiUUhnc3BaZVVFS2E3RHhXM216eFlKbjhaWEFoMiIsImlhdCI6MTc5NDQwNTUzMSwiZXhwIjoxNzk2OTk3NTMxLCJhdWQiOiJ6aC1naWZ0In0.V6liP8MF3cZucalS-gLsqYHfE7O4GvM_pzEX5Ieu9R4

 

     Investing

 

            The AI buildout isn’t a red or blue issue.

            https://www.riskhedge.com

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

 

 

What I am reading today

 

           

 

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