The Morning Call---A fourth crack

 

The Morning Call

 

10/16/26

 

The Market

         

    Technical

 

            Thursday in the charts.

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/ai-jesus-saves-world-again-market-breaks-bond-yields-tumble-oil-spikes?gift=eyJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiIsInR5cCI6IkpXVCJ9.eyJuaWQiOiIxMTI4NTg5Iiwic2VuZGVyVWlkIjoiUUhnc3BaZVVFS2E3RHhXM216eFlKbjhaWEFoMiIsImlhdCI6MTc5MjA5NjE3OSwiZXhwIjoxNzk0Njg4MTc5LCJhdWQiOiJ6aC1naWZ0In0.z58w9gdEw4t2xXibEV8YER9T0NLz_YWd7r_vITGW-LQ

 

Note: the S&P bounced off its 50 DMA---clearly good news. But its advance was much less dramatic than the DJIA, keeping alive the notion that the rest of the Market is starting to catch up with the Mag 7. I nibbled at NOBL (dividend aristocrats) ETF and a TIPS ETF on the thought that (1) the aforementioned catch up would progress and (2) the term premium was at a level too attractive to pass up.

 

            Thursday in the technical stats.

            https://www.barchart.com/stocks/momentum

            https://www.barchart.com/stocks/market-performance

            https://www.barchart.com/stocks/sectors/rankings

            https://www.barchart.com/stocks/signals/new-recommendations

 

            AI unwinds.

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/ai-unwinds-hedge-funds-just-dumped-ai-stocks-2nd-fastest-pace-year-net-leverage-slides-6th?gift=eyJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiIsInR5cCI6IkpXVCJ9.eyJuaWQiOiIxMTI4NTgwIiwic2VuZGVyVWlkIjoiUUhnc3BaZVVFS2E3RHhXM216eFlKbjhaWEFoMiIsImlhdCI6MTc5MjA4OTAzOCwiZXhwIjoxNzk0NjgxMDM4LCJhdWQiOiJ6aC1naWZ0In0.QH5V5X1aKmG_vPm9T_ZnLBze85J_NXHcyRADRthbdw4

 

            Five ominous charts.

            https://talkmarkets.com/article/crash-alert-five-ominous-charts

 

            On the other hand---the latest from Citadel.

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/brace-much-more-meaningful-test-fundamental-backdrop-citadel-securities-chief-equity?gift=eyJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiIsInR5cCI6IkpXVCJ9.eyJuaWQiOiIxMTI4NTQ5Iiwic2VuZGVyVWlkIjoiUUhnc3BaZVVFS2E3RHhXM216eFlKbjhaWEFoMiIsImlhdCI6MTc5MjA5NTAwOSwiZXhwIjoxNzk0Njg3MDA5LCJhdWQiOiJ6aC1naWZ0In0.SypVW16XFqW7UJesP3u25-I51es0oKrpnsfvEMcv1K0

 

Friday morning setup. US futures are higher, and small caps are leading, as the crowded-trade unwind that hammered chips, momentum and AI baskets all week takes a breather: Fed Chair Kevin Warsh said nothing about rates at the IMF gathering in Bangkok overnight (traders took the silence as a dovish gift, cutting October hike odds to 14% from 26%), Tesla jumped 5% after Musk unveiled his "flying" Roadster, and oil slipped after Trump said Iran had asked for a halt to US attacks but then it rebounded when the market realized Trump is just lying; as a result haven demand faded and the global bond rally stalled, with 10Y yields rising 6bps to 5.12%. As of 8:00am ET, S&P futures are 0.1% higher at 7,800, Nasdaq futures are down -0.2% and Dow futures are -0.2%; Russell 2000 contracts are up 0.5%. Yesterday the S&P rose 0.3% and closed within 1% of its record high after Jensen Huang rode to CoreWeave's rescue, even as the SOX fell for a 7th straight day and the Nasdaq barely eked out a gain. Premarket, all Mag 7 names except Amazon are higher led by Tesla, while CoreWeave (-3.9%), Strategy (-2.9%) and Netflix (-2.5%) lag and the AI baskets (semis and memory) remain in the red per JPM. The day's driver is Warsh (or rather what he didn't say): with the blackout starting Saturday, the Fed chair declined to push back on rate expectations and instead talked up a "massive investment surge" from AI. In rates, Treasuries slide with a mild bear steepening (2s flat, 10s +4bps, 30s +3bps per JPM) as the rebound in global stocks clips the haven bid; bunds and gilts are also lower by about 15 ticks with UK banks in focus after reports Chancellor Healey will raise their taxes. In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index drops 0.4%, down a second day, with the kiwi and Aussie leading G10 and the euro set to end a five-week losing run. In commodities, WTI is down 1% near $97 and Brent trades around $105 but is still headed for a second weekly gain; gold is up 0.3% at $4,184, silver gains 0.8% and copper rises 1% in London. Crypto is mixed: Bitcoin is little changed around $82,000 while Ether bounces. US economic data slate includes September import/export prices (8:30am), industrial production and capacity utilization (9:15am), the federal budget balance (2pm) and August TIC flows (4pm); Fed speaker slate includes Goolsbee on Bloomberg TV at 6pm, the last word before the blackout. There are no coupon auctions, but Treasury's primary dealer questionnaire (noon ET) ahead of the Nov. 4 refunding is worth watching.

 

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

 

                        International

 

The August EU trade balance was -E16.1 billion versus estimates of +E14.7 billion; September CPI was +0.6%, in line.

 

                        Other

 

                          Retail sales are another plus for the economy.

                          https://bonddad.blogspot.com/2026/10/retail-sales-continue-this-years.html

 

            Monetary Policy

 

With everything else going on yesterday, I failed to mention the release of the September FOMC minutes.

https://assets.realclear.com/files/2026/10/2947_fed_watcher_-_oct_14.pdf

 

            Fiscal Policy

 

              American free enterprise is under attack.

              https://www.cato.org/restoring-free-enterprise/american-free-enterprise-under-attack

 

              What the Iran war has cost America---so far.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/political/iran-war-has-cost-nearly-2000-us-household-moodys-top-economist

 

            AI

 

              Nvidia will blink first.

                          https://quoththeraven.substack.com/p/jensen-will-blink-first?r=1ng8jx&utm_campaign=post-expanded-share&utm_medium=web

 

              A fourth crack.

  https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/aftershock-anthropic-ipo-investors-mark-valuation-down-15-trillion-growth-slowdown-sinks?gift=eyJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiIsInR5cCI6IkpXVCJ9.eyJuaWQiOiIxMTI4NjIwIiwic2VuZGVyVWlkIjoiUUhnc3BaZVVFS2E3RHhXM216eFlKbjhaWEFoMiIsImlhdCI6MTc5MjE1NTcxNSwiZXhwIjoxNzk0NzQ3NzE1LCJhdWQiOiJ6aC1naWZ0In0.89JNxu0zcNRZxIMpQYrkEXO_OPYSPtbjmz2IS5DGsG8

 

 

     Investing

 

            Outlook for October S&P dividends.

            https://politicalcalculations.blogspot.com/2026/10/the-outlook-for-s-500-dividends-in.html

 

            When do fundamentals matter?

            https://behaviouralinvestment.com/2026/10/13/when-do-fundamentals-matter/

 

            Opportunities in bonds?

            https://www.advisorperspectives.com/commentaries/2026/10/15/yields-soaring-elevating-investor-opportunities

 

            Inflation concerns push yields further above fair value.

            https://www.capitalspectator.com/inflation-concerns-push-10-year-yield-further-above-fair-value/

               

                Bitcoin will become less volatile.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/crypto/bitcoin-will-become-less-volatile-and-larger-gold-bitcoin-standard-author

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

 

 

What I am reading today

 

           

                        Non state alliances are reshaping the global order.

            https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2026/10/how-non-state-alliances-are-reshaping-the-global-order.html

 

 

Visit Investing for Survival’s website (http://investingforsurvival.com/home) to learn more about our Investment Strategy, Prices Disciplines and Subscriber Service.

 

 

 

The Morning Call---Cracks in the AI story.

 

The Morning Call

 

10/15/26

 

The Market

         

    Technical

 

            Wednesday in the charts.

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/hawks-circle-soaring-cpi-lifts-dollar-hammers-everything-else?gift=eyJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiIsInR5cCI6IkpXVCJ9.eyJuaWQiOiIxMTI4NDIwIiwic2VuZGVyVWlkIjoiUUhnc3BaZVVFS2E3RHhXM216eFlKbjhaWEFoMiIsImlhdCI6MTc5MjAwOTUxMSwiZXhwIjoxNzk0NjAxNTExLCJhdWQiOiJ6aC1naWZ0In0.PhP-JYllp8vkBvGWSs1Per7tcvqC-2HpDTVUy9rR0f0

 

           

Note: for a second time in a row, the S&P failed to successfully challenge its former high. It is now sitting on its 50 DMA (i.e., support). Let’s see how it handles that. That said, the rest of the Market held its own. Our portfolios were up on the day, as everything else offset the decline in the AI related stocks. So this may not be a sign that the Market is headed lower---just the big tech names. It is too early to tell, but I am planning at strategy based on that assumption.

 

            Wednesday in the technical stats.

            https://www.barchart.com/stocks/momentum

            https://www.barchart.com/stocks/market-performance

            https://www.barchart.com/stocks/sectors/rankings

            https://www.barchart.com/stocks/signals/new-recommendations

 

            King dollar is crushing everything.

https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/king-dollar-crushing-everything?gift=eyJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiIsInR5cCI6IkpXVCJ9.eyJuaWQiOiIxMTI4NDE1Iiwic2VuZGVyVWlkIjoiUUhnc3BaZVVFS2E3RHhXM216eFlKbjhaWEFoMiIsImlhdCI6MTc5MjAwNzQyMSwiZXhwIjoxNzk0NTk5NDIxLCJhdWQiOiJ6aC1naWZ0In0.RtEWXB5mwBWZmbNSZabv8B81w2Cnkp-wVeL78x4Gvy8

 

Thursday morning setup: US futures are lower as the AI unwind goes global - Korea's Kospi crashed into a bear market and tripped circuit breakers, CoreWeave bonds sank deeper into distress and Anthropic's still-blistering but slowing growth failed to impress - while yesterday's hot CPI scare has morphed into a growth scare; as a result Treasuries are ripping higher with 10Y yields tumbling 10bps to 5.08%, the lowest since Sept. 23. As of 6:20am ET, S&P futures are 0.3% lower at 7,749 while Nasdaq futures slide 1.1% to 29,857 and Dow futures are up 0.2%; small caps are the odd man out with Russell 2000 futures up 0.3%. Yesterday the S&P 500 fell 1.1% to its worst day since July, the Nasdaq 100 lost 2% and the SOX dropped for a sixth straight session. Premarket, Mag-7 and AI baskets are all lower with Apple the only Mag 7 name in the green; chipmakers, memory, neoclouds and AI infrastructure names are all sliding, with CoreWeave down another 6-7% after imploding 15% yesterday as its bonds traded at distressed levels. The day's driver is AI financing (again): Anthropic's $16.8 billion Q3 revenue implies slowing growth, and a Gartner report that $3,5 trillion of AI infrtastructure spending could be exposed to impairment by 2030 is making the rounds. Bonds rally across the curve in a bull flattener with yields down 7-11bps, as the AI selloff pushes investors into havens and odds of an October Fed hike slide back to around 30% from a post-CPI intraday peak of 58%; bunds and gilts also rally about 10bps, helped by the pullback in energy. The dollar is lower, with the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index down 0.3%-0.4% and the Swiss franc leading G-10 gains while the Aussie slumps after a weak jobs report. In commodities, Brent drops almost 2% to $104 on the risk-off tone and talk of the US easing shadow fleet sanctions, gold jumps 1.3% to $4,158 and silver is up 2.1%, while copper slides. Bitcoin is down 0.6% near $81,200. US economic data slate includes September retail sales, PPI, October Empire manufacturing and Philly Fed, and weekly jobless claims (all 8:30am) and August business inventories (10am). Fed speaker slate includes Goolsbee (10am), Hammack (4:30pm) and Chair Warsh, who has a fireside chat with the IMF's Georgieva in Bangkok at 11:30pm ET before the blackout. Treasury sells $110 billion of 4-week and $105 billion of 8-week bills at 11:30am.

 

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

 

                          Weekly jobless claims totaled 199,000 versus projections of 200,000.

 

September CPI was up 0.6%, in line; the core CPI was up 0.3% versus +0.2%.

                          https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/rate-hike-odds-bond-yields-explode-higher-after-hotter-expected-cpi

 

                                  More analysis.

                          https://bonddad.blogspot.com/2026/10/september-cpi-shows-widespread-movement.html

 

September PPI was up 1.3% versus consensus of +0.5%; core PPI was up 0.7% versus +0.3%.

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/inflation-broadening-out-producer-prices-soar-most-4-years

 

September retail sales rose 0.8% versus estimates of +0.3%; ex autos they were up 0.9% versus +0.5%.

 

The October New Your Fed manufacturing index came in at 25.5 versus expectations of 10.3; the October Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index was 20.9 versus 28.4.

 

                        International

 

August Japanese machinery orders were up 5.2% versus forecasts of +3.0; final August industrial production fell 2.4% versus -1.7%.

 

August UK GDP grew 0.1% versus predictions of -0.1%; August industrial production was up 0.8% versus -0.1%; the August trade balance was -L920 million versus -L3.1 billion; August YoY construction output declined 1.8% versus -1.6%.

 

August EU industrial production declined 0.5% versus consensus of 0.0%.

 

                        Other

 

                          Home buying slump hits six weeks.

  https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-10-14/us-mortgage-rates-hit-7-5-extending-slump-in-purchase-activity?accessToken=eyJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiIsInR5cCI6IkpXVCJ9.eyJzb3VyY2UiOiJTdWJzY3JpYmVyR2lmdGVkQXJ0aWNsZSIsImlhdCI6MTc5MTk5MTU3NiwiZXhwIjoxNzkyNTk2Mzc2LCJhcnRpY2xlSWQiOiJUTVVZOE9UOTZPU0kwMCIsImJjb25uZWN0SWQiOiJCMzFCNTRDQTI3MTE0NjAxOUQxMURCN0IxRUM4NTE2MyJ9.-P02mqZ3R2OAyzrobYTnnZrZzCMFOTrcTZayY_mHftQ

 

 

            Fiscal Policy

 

              There is no winning the AI race without global workers.

              https://www.realclearmarkets.com/articles/2026/10/14/theres_no_ai_victory_for_the_us_without_the_worlds_workers_1210968.html

           

 

            AI

 

              A second crack?

                          https://quoththeraven.substack.com/p/coreweave-dont-say-i-didnt-warn-you?r=1ng8jx&utm_campaign=post-expanded-share&utm_medium=web

 

              A third crack?

  https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/anthropic-says-q3-revenue-jumped-168-billion-and-turned-adjusted-profitable-run-rate-math?gift=eyJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiIsInR5cCI6IkpXVCJ9.eyJuaWQiOiIxMTI4NDcxIiwic2VuZGVyVWlkIjoiUUhnc3BaZVVFS2E3RHhXM216eFlKbjhaWEFoMiIsImlhdCI6MTc5MjA2ODk0OCwiZXhwIjoxNzk0NjYwOTQ4LCJhdWQiOiJ6aC1naWZ0In0.-X7zW5yd336EA2nA2qZfWsxJ4i9v5J-KMrFZPA8RqLE

 

 

              Investment bubbles are a feature of capitalism.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/dowd-investment-bubbles-are-feature-capitalism-not-bug

 

     Investing

 

            Proceed with caution.

            Continue To Proceed With Caution

 

            Dispelling two bull market worries.

                        https://www.marketwatch.com/story/investors-worry-the-bull-market-is-getting-old-but-history-shows-it-can-continue-to-age-gracefully-0402e69c?st=yypMDV

 

            That pesky ‘term premium’.

            https://www.nytimes.com/2026/10/13/business/term-premium-bond-yields.html

 

            Investors locking in higher yields.

            https://giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/actions/redeem/7afe1319-c9c0-40e5-83f2-4d08b1304b39

 

            How much money is enough?

                        https://open.substack.com/pub/spilledcoffee/p/how-much-is-enough?utm_campaign=post-expanded-share&utm_medium=web

 

            The nightmare scenario.

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/nightmare-scenario-move-creator-bassman-warns-6-20y-could-unleash-convexity-vortex?gift=eyJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiIsInR5cCI6IkpXVCJ9.eyJuaWQiOiIxMTI4MzEyIiwic2VuZGVyVWlkIjoiUUhnc3BaZVVFS2E3RHhXM216eFlKbjhaWEFoMiIsImlhdCI6MTc5MTk5MDMwMSwiZXhwIjoxNzk0NTgyMzAxLCJhdWQiOiJ6aC1naWZ0In0.8KAqXXefrBMtuI5bB3blDV0Vi-Ulyt4IkNxKkAnTRsU

 

Note: Cheapest to Deliver (CTD) is the specific bond from a basket of eligible government or Treasury securities that a short position holder (the seller) chooses to deliver when settling a bond futures contract, because it costs them the least amount of money to acquire and deliver.

 

              AI rains on the tech parade.

              https://talkmarkets.com/article/openai-rains-on-the-tech-parade

 

              Where the gold market is headed.

              https://talkmarkets.com/article/5-charts-revealing-where-the-gold-market-is-headed-next

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

            BlackRock

            https://talkmarkets.com/article/blackrock-stock-jumps-3-after-earnings-beat-as-assets-climb-to-155-trillion

 

What I am reading today

 

            The social security COLA for 2027.

            https://wolfstreet.com/2026/10/14/the-social-security-cola-for-2027-will-be-largest-since-2023/

 

 

Visit Investing for Survival’s website (http://investingforsurvival.com/home) to learn more about our Investment Strategy, Prices Disciplines and Subscriber Service.

 

 

 

The Morning Call---Paul Tudor Jones' 2027 outlook

 

The Morning Call

 

10/14/26

 

The Market

         

    Technical

 

            Tuesday in the charts.

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/tech-wrecked-again-ai-credit-cracks-widen-bonds-bullion-black-gold-chop?gift=eyJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiIsInR5cCI6IkpXVCJ9.eyJuaWQiOiIxMTI4MjcxIiwic2VuZGVyVWlkIjoiUUhnc3BaZVVFS2E3RHhXM216eFlKbjhaWEFoMiIsImlhdCI6MTc5MTkyMzkwNiwiZXhwIjoxNzk0NTE1OTA2LCJhdWQiOiJ6aC1naWZ0In0.EKQPtfB8z-ELlgCBzUcJTLLKj36rh8qYAWbFGFHQ4cY

 

            Tuesday in the technical stats.

            https://www.barchart.com/stocks/momentum

            https://www.barchart.com/stocks/market-performance

            https://www.barchart.com/stocks/sectors/rankings

            https://www.barchart.com/stocks/signals/new-recommendations

 

            Sprinting to stand still.

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/sprinting-stand-still-goldmans-molavi-spots-two-three-capex-peak-signals-already-flashing?gift=eyJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiIsInR5cCI6IkpXVCJ9.eyJuaWQiOiIxMTI4MTY5Iiwic2VuZGVyVWlkIjoiUUhnc3BaZVVFS2E3RHhXM216eFlKbjhaWEFoMiIsImlhdCI6MTc5MTg5ODEyNCwiZXhwIjoxNzk0NDkwMTI0LCJhdWQiOiJ6aC1naWZ0In0.jygeBM3bMX_tPY4HHsNPFcre1bzHmAEWvyJfi6gQTFo

 

            Positioning is changing.

https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/tech-bonds-next-big-positioning-shock-taking-shape?gift=eyJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiIsInR5cCI6IkpXVCJ9.eyJuaWQiOiIxMTI4Mjk5Iiwic2VuZGVyVWlkIjoiUUhnc3BaZVVFS2E3RHhXM216eFlKbjhaWEFoMiIsImlhdCI6MTc5MTkyNDk3OSwiZXhwIjoxNzk0NTE2OTc5LCJhdWQiOiJ6aC1naWZ0In0.cuzqtUmMfSGD2UpPPDnz24z242Q4gcije486Ep4wDmg

 

 

                        Memory meltdown.

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/memory-meltdown-goldman-finds-fast-money-piled-nasdaq-top-and-asset-managers-havent-blinked?gift=eyJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiIsInR5cCI6IkpXVCJ9.eyJuaWQiOiIxMTI4MzAxIiwic2VuZGVyVWlkIjoiUUhnc3BaZVVFS2E3RHhXM216eFlKbjhaWEFoMiIsImlhdCI6MTc5MTk4Mjg3NCwiZXhwIjoxNzk0NTc0ODc0LCJhdWQiOiJ6aC1naWZ0In0.ZoKb2z3kXKp2gRSSymBm2tg4yVZgwW1vqkXkWdUC1-k

 

 

Wednesday morning setup: US futures are higher, with small caps leading and tech lagging, as traders brace for what is expected to be the hottest monthly CPI print since the spring, digest more escalation in the Gulf after Yemen's Houthis hit Saudi Aramco's Dhahran headquarters and vowed more strikes on Saudi airports and oil facilities, and countdown to Anthropic's pre-IPO investor day which one strategist warns "will move the entire market"; as a result oil is grinding higher while the bond rout takes another breather with the 10Y sliding to 5.20%. As of 8:15am ET, S&P futures are 0.2% higher at 7,872 while Nasdaq futures are down 0.1% and Dow futures are up 0.4%; Russell 2000 contracts are up 0.3%. On Tuesday, the S&P closed fractionally lower (-0.02%) as the Philly semi index posted a fifth straight drop - its longest losing streak since July - and the KBW Banks index slid 1.4% with all 24 members lower on day one of bank earnings. In premarket trading, Mag 7 names are mostly higher led by Alphabet, BlackRock jumps after pulling in $205 billion in new money, while Bank of America slips after a $1.21 billion money-laundering fine (as we reported yesterday) and an equities trading miss; memory names are again under pressure (MU -1.4%, SNDK -2.3%), extending the memory meltdown, even as ASML's beat-and-raise sparked a modest rally in Europe.  The day's driver is CPI: consensus expects headline to jump 0.6% M/M and 3.6% Y/Y - the biggest monthly advance in five months on the back of surging gasoline prices - with core seen at 0.2%, while swaps price roughly 24% odds of a quarter-point hike at the Oct. 28 FOMC, meaning that the print "mostly decides December". Treasuries are slightly richer, with yields down about 1bp across the front-end and belly and the 10Y at 5.20%, dragged lower by a rally in gilts after BoE Chief Economist Huw Pill cast doubt on market pricing of four hikes by next summer and the FT reported Chancellor Healey will fund budget giveaways with taxes or spending cuts rather than more borrowing. The Bloomberg dollar index is little changed, while the Aussie is the best G-10 performer after blowout Chinese trade data. In commodities, WTI has swung between gains and losses and was last up around 1.6% as traders weigh the latest Middle East hostilities, after the IEA warned diesel supplies will remain constrained well into 2027 and OECD government oil stocks hit the lowest since 1989; gold slips 0.4% to $4,144 and silver drops over 1% to its lowest since August, while copper is firmer. Bitcoin is flat around $83,000. US economic data slate includes MBA mortgage applications (already out: -2.7%) and September CPI (8:30am); the Fed releases its Beige Book at 2pm. Fed speaker slate includes Barkin (1:30pm), Goolsbee (3pm) and Bowman (10:55pm). The Treasury sells $75 billion in 17-week bills at 11:30am.

 

    Fundamental

 

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

 

Weekly mortgage applications fell 2.7% while purchase applications were down 0.4%.

 

Month to date retail chain store sales were up 10.4% versus 8.6% in the prior week.

 

September existing home sales rose 1.5% versus consensus of -0.3%.

                          https://bonddad.blogspot.com/2026/10/the-subpar-equilibrium-in-existing-home.html

 

                        International

 

September Chinese CPI rose 0.2% versus predictions of +0.3%; September YoY PPI was up 5.0% versus +4.5%; the September trade balance was +$133.5 billion versus +$118.5 billion.

 

September German PPI was up 1.9% versus estimates of +0.7%.

 

                        Other

 

Overnight News

 

Iran is deploying new tactics to target ships sailing through the Strait of Hormuz as it seeks to keep oil prices high and influence the US midterm elections, two senior Iranian officials told Reuters.

 

Oil edged higher as attacks on Saudi Aramco's headquarters added to a flare-up in the Middle East conflict, increasing uncertainty over a recovery in Persian Gulf energy flows.

 

Yemeni Army Spokesperson said operations towards Saudi airports and oil facilities will continue in the coming days and warned for global shipping companies, civilians and workers to evacuate such airports and firms, as they are legitimate targets.

 

           

           Fiscal Policy

 

              The burden is ours, not our grandchildren’s.

              https://www.realclearmarkets.com/articles/2026/10/13/were_burdening_the_children_is_an_abjectly_keynesian_fatuity_1210908.html

 

            AI

 

              The huge lurking leverage in AI.

              https://giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/actions/redeem/9981aaea-42af-480e-a783-ea7976c2b0f5

 

              The 11% AI chip loan the big banks refused to underwrite.

  https://www.zerohedge.com/ai/when-goldman-jpm-wont-hold-it-should-you-11-ai-chip-loan-banks-refused-underwrite?gift=eyJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiIsInR5cCI6IkpXVCJ9.eyJuaWQiOiIxMTI4MjEzIiwic2VuZGVyVWlkIjoiUUhnc3BaZVVFS2E3RHhXM216eFlKbjhaWEFoMiIsImlhdCI6MTc5MTkyMDgxNywiZXhwIjoxNzk0NTEyODE3LCJhdWQiOiJ6aC1naWZ0In0.vYlKzg3GwpoBcsWK4G4mBD0QPDLm-czFT9DAhlBVxZs

 

              One more problem for the hyperscalers.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/energy/big-tech-pushes-back-paying-grid-was-crumbling-long-ai

 

            Tariffs

 

              Manufacturing surged when tariffs were lifted.

              https://thedailyeconomy.org/article/manufacturing-surged-when-tariffs-were-lifted/

           

     Investing

 

            Paul Tudor Jones versus Goldman on the 2027 market outlook.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/ill-be-short-whole-year-paul-tudor-jones-warns-looming-dot-com-style-equity-supply-tsnuami

 

            Stocks keep climbing but leadership may be changing.

            https://www.capitalspectator.com/stocks-keep-climbing-but-market-leadership-may-be-shifting/

               

            Will bonds blow up?

            https://trendlabs.com/will-bonds-blow-up/

 

            The starting yield on a bond largely dictates your future return.

            https://bondvigilantes.com/blog/2026/10/bonds-have-their-mojo-back/

 

            The latest from Morgan Stanley.

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/feds-unpaid-intern-ms-wilson-says-tighter-financial-conditions-are-already-doing-warshs-job?gift=eyJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiIsInR5cCI6IkpXVCJ9.eyJuaWQiOiIxMTI4MjU5Iiwic2VuZGVyVWlkIjoiUUhnc3BaZVVFS2E3RHhXM216eFlKbjhaWEFoMiIsImlhdCI6MTc5MTkyMjc0OCwiZXhwIjoxNzk0NTE0NzQ4LCJhdWQiOiJ6aC1naWZ0In0.eSeAaInacXpDKTYleDqvU7x5FRTfS5LutZ-H-Tu2iS8

 

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

 

 

What I am reading today

 

            New era of investment for the defense industry.

            https://www.realclearmarkets.com/articles/2026/10/13/a_new_era_of_investment_for_the_defense_sector_1211123.html

 

 

Visit Investing for Survival’s website (http://investingforsurvival.com/home) to learn more about our Investment Strategy, Prices Disciplines and Subscriber Service.