The Morning Call
10/29/25
The
Market
Technical
Tuesday in the
charts.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/jensen-japan-jobs-jawboning-china-lift-big-tech-bitcoin-ahead-fed
Market squeeze
slingshot triggered. (I don’t know how to square this with rollover in breadth.)
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/spot-vol-marketwide-gamma-slingshot-launched-dealers-chase-upside
What Goldman in buying.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/these-are-goldmans-favorite-us-trades-year-end
The latest from JP Morgan’s desk.
Counterpoints: Palpable AI fatigue.
And:
Is the Santa Claus rally already over?
Tuesday in the technical stats.
https://www.barchart.com/stocks/momentum
https://www.barchart.com/stocks/sectors/ranking
https://www.barchart.com/stocks/signals/new-recommendations
I am not sure what
to make of this, but it is a very interesting correlation.
Fundamental
Headlines
The
Economy
US
Weekly mortgage
applications were up 7.1% while purchase applications were up 5.0%.
Month to date
retail chain store sales were up 5.2% versus up 5% in the prior week.
The August Case
Shiller home price index came in at -0.6% versus estimates of -0.1%.
The October consumer
confidence index was 94.6 versus projections of 93.0.
The October
Richmond Fed manufacturing index was -4 versus forecasts of -10.
International
The October
Japanese consumer confidence index was 35.8 versus consensus of 35.5.
Other
The latest betting odds on key economic indicators.
https://www.capitalspectator.com/macro-expectations-betting-markets-28-october-2025/
Overnight
News
Trump said he
expects to lower fentanyl-linked tariffs on China as Beijing confirmed a
high-stakes meeting between Chinese President Xi Jinping and the American
leader. Trump said he might discuss Nvidia’s advanced AI chips with China soon.
China's COFCO
purchased three cargoes totaling 180k tons of US soybeans ahead of Trump-Xi
meeting, according to sources cited by Reuters.
Trump announces trade breakthrough with South
Korea on Asia trip.
Trump said he threatened India and Pakistan
with 250% tariffs to help spur the resolution
of their conflict earlier this year.
Trump said they have secured commitments of
over $18tln in new investments and that probably USD 21tln–22tln of investment
is coming into the US by the end of the second term.
Monetary
Policy
Quantitative tightening will likely end soon.
The Fed should pause in cutting rates.
Recession
Recession probability falls.
https://politicalcalculations.blogspot.com/2025/10/us-recession-probability-falls-after.html
The
Financial System
How bad is the cockroach problem?
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/10/27/opinion/financial-market-credit-loans.html
Tariffs
US/China reach ‘preliminary’ trade deal.
But
much remains unresolved.
https://mishtalk.com/economics/trumps-big-china-deal-looks-more-like-an-uneasy-truce/
Geopolitics
Russia in crisis.
https://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2025/10/russia-in-crisis.php
Investing
The case for a ‘good
enough’ portfolio.
https://reason.com/2025/10/25/how-to-ruin-a-shutdown/
The latest from
John Hussman.
https://www.advisorperspectives.com/commentaries/2025/10/28/unsustainable-equilibrium
France proposes
national bitcoin reserve.
https://www.zerohedge.com/crypto/france-proposes-national-bitcoin-reserve-wants-buy-2-bitcoin-supply
News
on Stocks in Our Portfolios
Automatic Data
Processing press
release (NASDAQ:ADP): Q1 Non-GAAP EPS of
$2.49 beats by $0.05.
Revenue of
$5.18B (+7.2% Y/Y) beats by $50M.
T. Rowe Price (NASDAQ:TROW) declared $1.27/share quarterly dividend, in line with previous.
What
I am reading today
Wednesday
morning humor.
9
Historical Objects Trump Destroyed In The East Wing | Babylon Bee
Quote
of the day.
https://cafehayek.com/2025/10/quotation-of-the-day-5176.html
The
amassing of emergency powers.
https://reason.com/2025/10/25/how-to-ruin-a-shutdown/
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