Monday, December 20, 2021

Monday Morning Chartology

 

The Morning Call

 

12/20/21

 

I am off for the holidays. See you in January.

 

The Market

         

    Technical

 

           

            Try as it might, the S&P just couldn’t make it back to old highs. Before reading too much into it, remember that Friday was quad witching which usually introduces idiosyncratic volatility into the pin action. That said, if the S&P can’t quickly return to a challenge of the recent highs, then we have to start (1) looking at support levels---the obvious one being the 100 DMA which the index bounced off of in early December, (2) considering the possibility that we just witnessed a double top, especially given the horrible breadth numbers. One final note. For the next two weeks, a big chunk of Wall Street will either be on vacation or, in the case of the hedge funds, have closed their books for the year. That likely means that through year end less volume but more volatility if there is a  big news event.

 

            Treacherous undercurrents.

            https://www.ft.com/content/d248d1af-261e-47c8-9a5f-0d264cb9f83b

 

            Levels to watch.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/chib7f6qlv

 


 


TLT blew off the Powell tapering announcement, closing basically flat on the week after an initial dip. That leaves it in (1) in very short term uptrends off its March and October lows as well as its intermediate and long term uptrends and (2) above both DMA’s. This is supportive of the notion that inflation will not be the problem many think but rather it is that ‘Powell waited too late to get hawkish and now the Fed will be tightening into a weaker economy---thereby making it even weaker.’

 


 

 

            GLD rallied substantially during last week. While one might expect it to do so on the prospect of higher inflation, the long bond (see above) and the dollar (see below) are suggesting otherwise. Of course, gold is a much less liquid market than either bonds or the dollar, so this contrary performance could be a function of other factors weighing on gold investors’ minds. Setting aside the fundamentals of GLD, it is behaving just as one would expect technically. In last week’s Monday Morning Chartology, I introduced the notion of a developing pennant formation (the two straight red lines). As you can see, it traded down to the lower boundary of that formation and bounced immediately. That suggests the gold will trade in an ever narrowing price range until it breaks up/down which would then be indicative of future price direction.

 

 


 

 

The dollar had a see saw week but ended higher. It remains near the upper boundary of its short term uptrend and above both DMA’s---not indicative of a higher inflationary environment.

 




What is bothersome to me is these charts are suggesting that the Fed has timed the tapering perfectly, that is, soon enough to slow the growth of inflation with just enough tightening to assure continued economic strength. As you know, I am coming around to the notion that inflation may be at or near its peak but not because of anything positive that the Fed is done. Indeed, I believe that if it is peaking, it is because the enormous burden that irresponsible money and fiscal polices have placed growth prospects for the economy. In short, inflation may not prove an enduring problem but a struggling economy made worse by tightening monetary policy could be.

 

            Friday in the charts.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/turbo-taper-send-stocks-bond-yields-lower-week

 

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        Review of Last Week 

 

The US stats were negative last week as were the primary indicators (two negative, one positive). Overseas, the data were overwhelmingly negative for the second week in a row, putting to rest any doubt that a recovery was in sight.

 

One thing to mention is that the indicators of growth were mostly below expectations, the inflation readings were also less than forecasts. In other words, economies are struggling but inflation seems to be lessening. Now, one week does not a trend make, but, but, but I have I noted previously that the markets appear to be discounting an easing in inflationary pressures. Again, one week of data doesn’t mean this will prove the case; but it clearly something to watch.

 

Jeffrey Snider agrees with the markets.

https://www.realclearmarkets.com/articles/2021/12/17/we_would_do_well_to_heed_alan_greenspans_words_from_1996_808311.html

 

And so does Ed Yardini.

https://www.linkedin.com/in/edward-yardeni/detail/recent-activity/

 

In the first instance that makes sense given that the Fed (and Bank of England) elected this week to become more hawkish on inflation. As you know, the FOMC announced that tapering would begin in earnest in January and that rate hikes would likely commence later in 2022. The problem is, as I have tried to document, economic growth, following a post Covid snapback, is again slowing. Begging the question, has the Fed once again waited far too long to begin tightening and then elected to do so at the very point that it should be easing? Stay tuned.

 

Bank of Japan shuns tightening.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/japans-central-bank-shuns-tightening-trend-citing-lack-of-inflation-11639733579

 

My take on the economy remains unchanged---it is struggling to grow, hampered by increasingly irresponsible monetary and fiscal policies, getting no support from the global economy and threatened by seemingly mounting inflationary forces---though I am beginning to question the latter point.

 

                        US

           

 

                        International

 

 

                        Other

    

 

 

     Bottom line.

 

            Desperately seeking the Fed put.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/markets-swing-wildly-seeking-fed-put-strike-price-morgan-stanley-has-some-bad-news

 

            Should you be raising cash?

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/screaming-dislocation-we-must-raise-cash-any-rally-here

 

More on valuations.

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/david-stockman-reveals-truth-about-stock-market-and-what-it-means-you

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

                 

 

What I am reading today

 

            A few questions.

            https://www.collaborativefund.com/blog/i-have-a-few-questions/

 

            Using game theory to find extraterrestrials.

            https://politicalcalculations.blogspot.com/2021/12/using-game-theory-to-find.html#.YbzTT2jMKUk

           

 

Visit Investing for Survival’s website (http://investingforsurvival.com/home) to learn more about our Investment Strategy, Prices Disciplines and Subscriber Service.

 

 

 

Friday, December 17, 2021

The Morning Call---The math of future returns

 

The Morning Call

 

12/17/21

 

 

The Market

         

    Technical

 

            Thursday in the charts.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/powell-pump-dumped-dollar-slumps-gold-jumps-0

 

            The unraveling (must read).

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/unraveling

 

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

 

November industrial production was up 0.5% versus forecasts of up 0.7%; capacity utilization was 76.8%, in line.

 

The December flash manufacturing PMI came in at 57.8 versus consensus of 58.5; the flash services PMI was 57.5 versus 58.5; the flash composite PMI was 56.9 versus 57.4.

 

The December Kansas City Fed manufacturing index was reported at 10 versus estimates of 21.

 

                        International

 

October EU YoY construction output rose 4.4% versus projections of +2.3%; November new car registrations were down 20.5% versus -17.0%; November CPI was +0.4% versus +0.5%.

 

November German PPI was 0.8% versus expectations of 1.4%; the December business climate index was 94.7 versus 95.3.

 

November UK retail sales were up 1.4% versus predictions of +0.8%; ex fuel, they were up 1.1% versus +0.8%.

 

                        Other

 

                          Update on big four economic indicators.

                          https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2021/12/16/the-big-four-industrial-production-up-0-5-in-november

 

            The Fed

 

              Another potential problem created by a cheap money policy.

              https://www.ft.com/content/67b625e7-87ab-478e-aca1-995f150e6b9c

 

              For emphasis.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/fed-pivot-means-judgment-day-3200-corporate-zombies

 

            Fiscal Policy

 

              Biden’s $2 trillion spending plan is not happening---at least for now.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/political/biden-agenda-crumbles-after-manchin-murks-child-tax-credit-will-try-again-2022

 

            Inflation

 

              When will inflation peak?

              https://www.capitalspectator.com/still-waiting-for-inflation-to-peak/

 

            The coronavirus

 

Study shows omicron variant more infectious but less severe than Covid---just like the Delta variant.

              https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-12-15/omicron-infects-70-times-faster-but-is-less-severe-study-says?sref=loFkkPMQ

 

                       

       Bottom line

 

            Update on future stock returns (must read).

            https://www.ft.com/content/67b625e7-87ab-478e-aca1-995f150e6b9c

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

FedEx (NYSE:FDX): FQ2 Non-GAAP EPS of $4.83 beats by $0.54; GAAP EPS of $3.88 misses by $0.21.

Revenue of $23.5B (+14.1% Y/Y) beats by $1.08B.

 

AT&T (NYSE:T) declares $0.52/share quarterly dividend, in line with previous.

 

What I am reading today

 

            Some people’s capacity for self-destruction apparently has no end.

            https://doomberg.substack.com/p/california-ditzkrieg

 

            Six rules for avoiding market panic attacks.

            https://tonyisola.com/2021/12/six-rules-for-avoiding-market-panic-attacks/

           

 

Visit Investing for Survival’s website (http://investingforsurvival.com/home) to learn more about our Investment Strategy, Prices Disciplines and Subscriber Service.

 

 

 

Thursday, December 16, 2021

The Morning Call---A big day in central bank land

 

The Morning Call

 

12/16/21

 

 

The Market

         

    Technical

 

            Wednesday in the charts.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/turbo-taper-sparks-market-turmoil-yield-curve-yells-policy-error

                   

            What is the pain trade now?

            https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/moreupside

 

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

                           

                            Weekly jobless claims were up 206,000 versus predictions of 200,000.

                            https://www.zerohedge.com/personal-finance/initial-jobless-claims-rebound-52-year-lows

 

November housing starts rose 11.8% versus forecasts of +4.3%; building permits were up 3.6% versus flat.

                            https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/us-housing-starts-surged-november

 

The December Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index was reported at 19 versus estimates of 27.

 

                            The December housing index came in at 84 versus consensus of 83.

                            https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2021/12/15/nahb-housing-market-index-home-builder-sentiment-strong-at-years-end

                                                       

                        International

 

The October EU trade balance was +E3.6 billion versus projections of +E7.6 billion.

 

The November Japanese trade balance was -Y954.8 billion versus expectations of -Y675 billion.

 

The December flash Japanese manufacturing PMI was 57.0 versus predictions of 54.6; the flash services PMI was 51.1 versus 53.1; the flash composite PMI was 51.8 versus 52.6; the December flash German manufacturing PMI was 57.9 versus 56.8; the flash services PMI was 49.4 versus 51.0; the flash composite PMI was 50.0 versus 51.1; the December flash EU manufacturing PMI was 58.0 versus 57.8; the flash services PMI was 53.3 versus 54.1; the flash composite PMI was 53.4 versus 54.0; the December flash UK manufacturing PMI was 57.5, in line; the flash services PMI was 53.2 versus 57.0; the flash composite PMI was 53.2 versus 56.4.

 

                        Other

 

                          The global economy continues to cool.

                          https://politicalcalculations.blogspot.com/2021/12/earths-economy-continued-cooling-in.html#.Ybo4pWjMKUk

 

                          China’s economic activity slowed in November.

                          https://www.wsj.com/articles/chinas-economic-activity-slowed-in-november-on-property-slump-weak-consumption-11639551530

 

                          Germany on the brink of recession.

                          https://www.cnn.com/2021/12/14/economy/germany-recession-omicron/index.html

 

                          The appreciation in the dollar threatens the global economy.

                          https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/dollar-appreciation-threatens-global-economy

 

                          Economic zombification.

                          https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/covid-19-economic-zombification

 

            The Fed

                

    Unless you have been camping in the outback, you know that the FOMC met          Tuesday and Wednesday. A change in policy was expected and that is what we got (1) tapering beginning in January, (2) rates rising as soon as next year. While those moves had been well telegraphed, judging by the Market’s very positive reaction, investors apparently feared a more hawkish policy.

 

As you know, I believe this move toward monetary policy normalization is way overdue. As such I don’t think that the inequities (the misallocation of resources, the mispricing of risk) that QEForever created in the economy/Market are going to be fixed anytime soon. So, my forecast of a struggling economy hasn’t changed. In addition, I think that there is still a decent probability of stagflation---though I am less confident in this prediction.

 

  The FOMC statement:

   https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2021/12/fomc-statement-accelerate-taper.html

 

  The dot plot:

   https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2021/12/fomc-projections-and-press-conference.html

 

              The Fed has some heavy lifting to do.

              https://global-macro-monitor.com/2021/12/14/consumers-spending-at-the-fastest-pace-weve-ever-seen/

 

              The ECB maintains its dovish policy.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/ecb-discontinue-pandemic-purchase-programme-march-boosts-core-qe-pace-eu40bn-q2

 

                           Bank of England raises rates.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/cable-spikes-after-bank-england-unveils-surprise-rate-hike

 

            Fiscal Policy

 

              The high price of Bidenomics.

              https://spectator.org/the-high-price-of-bidenomics/

 

              The lies our ruling class tells.

              https://nypost.com/2021/12/14/the-cost-of-bbb-isnt-fake-because-washington-lies-about-spending/

                               

     Bottom line

 

              Update on S&P earnings, revenues and margins.

              https://www.linkedin.com/in/edward-yardeni/detail/recent-activity/

 

              Financial misinformation.

              https://ofdollarsanddata.com/the-age-of-financial-misinformation/

           

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

 

 

What I am reading today

 

            The pluses and minuses of blockchain technology.

            https://www.stephendiehl.com/blog/blockchainism.html

 

As you know, I normally try to avoid political narratives; but this author, in my opinion, makes some good points on the role wokism has played in the widening wealth gap in this country.

            https://edwest.substack.com/p/how-the-chinese-trade-deal-led-to?r=yuhn3

 

            Quote of the day.

            https://cafehayek.com/2021/12/quotation-of-the-day-3741.html?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=email

 

 

 

Visit Investing for Survival’s website (http://investingforsurvival.com/home) to learn more about our Investment Strategy, Prices Disciplines and Subscriber Service.

 

 

 

Wednesday, December 15, 2021

The Morning Call---Breadth continues to deteriorate

 

The Morning Call

 

12/15/21

 

 

The Market

         

    Technical

 

            Tuesday in the charts.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/stocks-bond-commodities-crumble-dollar-rips-ahead-fed

 

            Expect a volatile options expiration on Friday.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/43-trillion-reasons-be-nervous-fridays-option-expiration

 

            Breadth continues to deteriorate.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/goldman-rings-alarm-collapsing-market-breadth-51-all-market-gains-april-are-just-5-stocks

 

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

 

Weekly mortgage applications fell 4.9% while purchase applications were up 0.7%.

                       

  November retail sales increased 0.3% versus expectations of +0.8%; ex  autos, they were up +0.3% versus +0.9%.

 

The December NY Fed manufacturing index came in at 31.9 versus projections of 25.0

 

                        International

 

November Chinese YoY industrial production was up 3.8% versus consensus of +3.6%; November YoY retail sales were up 3.9% versus +4.6%; November YoY fixed asset investments were up 5.2% versus +5.4%; the November unemployment rate was 5.2% versus 4.9%.

 

November UK CPI was +0.7% versus estimates of +0.4%; core CPI was +0.5% versus +0.3%; the retail price index weas +0.7% versus +0.4%; PPI was +0.9% versus +0.8%; core PPI was +0.8% versus +0.3%.

 

                        Other

 

                          There is not enough oil.

                          https://doomberg.substack.com/p/theres-not-enough-oil

 

            The Fed

 

              The ECB’s dilemma.

              https://johnhcochrane.blogspot.com/2021/12/the-ecbs-dilemma.html

 

            Inflation

 

              Has inflation peaked?

              https://alhambrapartners.com/2021/12/12/weekly-market-pulse-has-inflation-peaked/

 

            China

 

              What are the odds of war with China?

              https://americanconsequences.com/the-two-global-hot-spots-most-likely-to-upend-your-portfolio-in-2022/

 

              Update on US/China trade.

              https://politicalcalculations.blogspot.com/2021/12/us-china-trade-spikes-up-on-us-soybean.html#.Ybjjor3MKUk

 

    Bottom line

 

            The increasing frequency of bubbles.

            https://www.ft.com/content/e1c1fcf7-9bd9-47ac-abce-d3c1c9159a3e

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

 

 

What I am reading today

 

           

 

 

Visit Investing for Survival’s website (http://investingforsurvival.com/home) to learn more about our Investment Strategy, Prices Disciplines and Subscriber Service.