The Morning Call
10/1/25
The
Market
Technical
Tuesday in the
charts.
Tuesday in the technical stats.
https://www.barchart.com/stocks/momentum
https://www.barchart.com/stocks/sectors/rankings
https://www.barchart.com/stocks/signals/new-recommendations
The latest from
Citadel’s trading desk.
Fundamental
Headlines
The
Economy
US
Weekly mortgage applications
fell 12.7% while purchase applications were down 1.0%.
August job
openings (JOLTS report) totaled 7.22 million versus consensus of 7.1 million.
https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2025/09/30/jolts-report-job-openings-august-2025
The September
Chicago PMI was 40.6 versus predictions of 41.0.
The September
consumer confidence index came in at 94.2 versus forecasts of 95.0.
The September ADP
private payrolls report showed a decline in jobs of 32,000 versus expectations
of an increase of 40.000.
International
The Q3 Japanese
large manufacturers index was reported at 14 versus estimates of 15; the small
manufacturers index was 1, in line; the large nonmanufacturers index was 34 versus
35.
The September Japanese
manufacturing PMI was 48.2 versus projections of 48.4; the September German
manufacturing PMI was 49.5 versus 48.5; the September EU manufacturing PMI was
49.8 versus 49.5.
The September EU flash
CPI was up 0.1%, in line.
Other
August median household income.
https://politicalcalculations.blogspot.com/2025/09/median-household-income-in-august-2025.html
Trump’s impact on GDP trajectory.
https://econbrowser.com/archives/2025/09/trump-shock-on-gdp-vs-core-gdp
Trade policy uncertainty.
https://econbrowser.com/archives/2025/09/confirmed-uncertainty-about-trade-policy-rises
Unwinding a phenomenon that wrecked the
housing market.
Subdued sentiment limits the upside for US
economic growth.
https://talkmarkets.com/content/subdued-sentiment-limits-the-upside-for-us-growth?post=525686
What is misleading about GDP (ignore the
pitch for gold).
https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/gdp-illusion-why-economic-growth-losing-its-meaning
Overnight
News
The US government
shut down at midnight for the first time since 2019 — and the third under
Donald Trump — after Democrats blocked a Republican stopgap funding package.
There were no signs of a resolution forthcoming.
The White House
pulled the nomination of EJ Antoni to lead the BLS. Brian Quintenz is also no
longer Trump’s pick to chair the CFTC, after weeks of speculation about his
stalled candidacy.
Republican
lawmakers said that China won’t begin purchasing US agricultural products
anytime soon after a closed-door briefing. As part of the fallout from Trump’s
trade war, China has yet to book a single shipment of US soybeans this season,
fueling anxiety among farmers as this year’s harvest moves ahead. China is the
world’s largest soybean importer.
US trade
representative Jamieson Greer has warned that Washington will continue to hit
its trading partners with tariffs even if some are ruled illegal by the Supreme
Court later this year. The Supreme Court is set to hear cases brought by
businesses challenging Trump’s use of emergency powers to impose tariffs in the
first week of Nov.
Fiscal
Policy
201,000 Federal employees let go since January
1.
A reality check on government shutdowns.
https://www.axios.com/2025/09/29/stock-market-government-shutdown-trump-unemployment
Make America capitalist again.
The
war on HB 1 visas.
An
interesting concept: shrink the budget by cutting taxes.
Inflation
A falling dollar puts upward pressure on
inflation.
https://www.apolloacademy.com/upward-pressure-on-inflation-from-the-lower-dollar/
Geopolitics
Israel/Hamas problem solved?
Investing
Are stocks in a bubble?
https://www.carsongroup.com/insights/blog/are-stocks-in-a-bubble/
Using required minimum
distributions to improve your retirement portfolio.
https://www.morningstar.com/personal-finance/yes-rmds-can-improve-your-portfolio
Assessing gold’s portfolio
utility.
https://www.deshaw.com/library/worth-its-weight
Another look at what
is driving gold prices.
Who Is
Driving Gold Prices? | ZeroHedge
Watch the Fed.
https://www.advisorperspectives.com/commentaries/2025/09/30/watch-fed
News on Stocks in Our Portfolios
Paychex press
release (NASDAQ:PAYX): FQ1 Non-GAAP EPS of $1.22 beats by $0.02.
Revenue of
$1.54B (+16.7% Y/Y) in-line.
Nike press
release (NYSE:NKE): Q1 GAAP EPS of $0.49 beats by $0.22.
Revenue of
$11.7B (+0.9% Y/Y) beats by $710M.
What
I am reading today
Inside
the murder plot that changed the course of history.
How
Franz Ferdinand's assassination changed the course of history | National
Geographic
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