Wednesday, October 1, 2025

The Morning Call--Are stocks in a bubble?

 

The Morning Call

 

10/1/25

 

The Market

         

    Technical

 

            Tuesday in the charts.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/market-recaps/tech-jumps-trannies-dump-rate-cuts-spark-golds-best-month-14-years

 

                Tuesday in the technical stats.

            https://www.barchart.com/stocks/momentum

            https://www.barchart.com/stocks/sectors/rankings

            https://www.barchart.com/stocks/signals/new-recommendations

 

            The latest from Citadel’s trading desk.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/equities-sit-critical-inflection-point-citadel-flows-guru-warns-breadth-remains-key-tell

 

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

             

                        US

                          

Weekly mortgage applications fell 12.7% while purchase applications were down 1.0%.

 

August job openings (JOLTS report) totaled 7.22 million versus consensus of 7.1 million.

https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2025/09/30/jolts-report-job-openings-august-2025

 

The September Chicago PMI was 40.6 versus predictions of 41.0.

https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2025/09/30/chicago-pmi-contracts-for-22nd-consecutive-month

 

The September consumer confidence index came in at 94.2 versus forecasts of 95.0.

                           https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2025/09/30/consumer-confidence-drops-to-5-month-low-in-september

                                                    

The September ADP private payrolls report showed a decline in jobs of 32,000 versus expectations of an increase of 40.000.

                                                     https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/adp-payrolls-unexpectedly-crater-32000-worst-march-2023-and-below-all-estimates

                                                    

 

                        International

 

The Q3 Japanese large manufacturers index was reported at 14 versus estimates of 15; the small manufacturers index was 1, in line; the large nonmanufacturers index was 34 versus 35.

 

The September Japanese manufacturing PMI was 48.2 versus projections of 48.4; the September German manufacturing PMI was 49.5 versus 48.5; the September EU manufacturing PMI was 49.8 versus 49.5.

 

The September EU flash CPI was up 0.1%, in line.

 

                        Other

 

                          August median household income.

                          https://politicalcalculations.blogspot.com/2025/09/median-household-income-in-august-2025.html

 

                          Trump’s impact on GDP trajectory.

                          https://econbrowser.com/archives/2025/09/trump-shock-on-gdp-vs-core-gdp

 

                          Trade policy uncertainty.

                          https://econbrowser.com/archives/2025/09/confirmed-uncertainty-about-trade-policy-rises

 

                          Unwinding a phenomenon that wrecked the housing market.

                          https://wolfstreet.com/2025/09/29/the-lock-in-effect-and-mortgage-rates-update-on-unwinding-a-phenomenon-that-wrecked-the-housing-market/

 

                          Subdued sentiment limits the upside for US economic growth.

                          https://talkmarkets.com/content/subdued-sentiment-limits-the-upside-for-us-growth?post=525686

 

                          What is misleading about GDP (ignore the pitch for gold).

                          https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/gdp-illusion-why-economic-growth-losing-its-meaning

 

            Overnight News

 

The US government shut down at midnight for the first time since 2019 — and the third under Donald Trump — after Democrats blocked a Republican stopgap funding package. There were no signs of a resolution forthcoming.

 

The White House pulled the nomination of EJ Antoni to lead the BLS. Brian Quintenz is also no longer Trump’s pick to chair the CFTC, after weeks of speculation about his stalled candidacy.

 

Republican lawmakers said that China won’t begin purchasing US agricultural products anytime soon after a closed-door briefing. As part of the fallout from Trump’s trade war, China has yet to book a single shipment of US soybeans this season, fueling anxiety among farmers as this year’s harvest moves ahead. China is the world’s largest soybean importer.

 

US trade representative Jamieson Greer has warned that Washington will continue to hit its trading partners with tariffs even if some are ruled illegal by the Supreme Court later this year. The Supreme Court is set to hear cases brought by businesses challenging Trump’s use of emergency powers to impose tariffs in the first week of Nov.

 

            Fiscal Policy

 

              201,000 Federal employees let go since January 1.

              https://www.realclearmarkets.com/articles/2025/09/30/201000_federal_employees_let_go_since_january_is_a_good_start_1137856.html

 

              A reality check on government shutdowns.

              https://www.axios.com/2025/09/29/stock-market-government-shutdown-trump-unemployment

 

              Make America capitalist again.

  https://www.newsobserver.com/opinion/us-viewpoints/article312268811.html?fbclid=IwY2xjawNH2U9leHRuA2FlbQIxMABicmlkETFBakF4MGptVWlHUEQzZmY0AR7Hj8-wQAjqFM528WydzPAlc2OZszTzM04qb7U3VSoCwT1O83HQxSYt0YyKHA_aem_oWB-BHQeqUgvfDJOKUxyDA

 

              The war on HB 1 visas.

              https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2025-09-30/h-1b-visa-war-has-a-new-front-and-bipartisan-support?srnd=homepage-americas&sref=loFkkPMQ

 

                          An interesting concept: shrink the budget by cutting taxes.

              https://www.realclearmarkets.com/articles/2025/09/30/the_power_broker_in_robert_moses_lived_the_lie_of_spending_cuts_1137491.html

 

            Inflation

 

              A falling dollar puts upward pressure on inflation.

              https://www.apolloacademy.com/upward-pressure-on-inflation-from-the-lower-dollar/

 

            Geopolitics

 

              Israel/Hamas problem solved?

              https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/implications-are-profound-trump-may-have-helped-resolve-key-global-conflict

           

     Investing

 

            Are stocks in a bubble?

            https://www.carsongroup.com/insights/blog/are-stocks-in-a-bubble/

 

            Using required minimum distributions to improve your retirement portfolio.

            https://www.morningstar.com/personal-finance/yes-rmds-can-improve-your-portfolio

 

            Assessing gold’s portfolio utility.

            https://www.deshaw.com/library/worth-its-weight

 

            Another look at what is driving gold prices.

            Who Is Driving Gold Prices? | ZeroHedge

 

            Watch the Fed.

            https://www.advisorperspectives.com/commentaries/2025/09/30/watch-fed

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

Paychex press release (NASDAQ:PAYX): FQ1 Non-GAAP EPS of $1.22 beats by $0.02.

Revenue of $1.54B (+16.7% Y/Y) in-line.

 

Nike press release (NYSE:NKE): Q1 GAAP EPS of $0.49 beats by $0.22.

Revenue of $11.7B (+0.9% Y/Y) beats by $710M.

 

 

What I am reading today

 

            Inside the murder plot that changed the course of history.

            How Franz Ferdinand's assassination changed the course of history | National Geographic

 

 

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