The Morning Call--Navigating uncertainty with discipline

 

The Morning Call

 

10/7/25

 

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The Market

         

    Technical

 

            Monday in the charts.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/stocks-hit-7th-straight-record-high-ai-euphoria-pushes-semis-most-overbought-decade

 

            Monday in the technical stats.

            https://www.barchart.com/stocks/momentum

            https://www.barchart.com/stocks/sectors/rankings

            https://www.barchart.com/stocks/signals/new-recommendations

 

            Four charts on Q4.

            https://chartkidmatt.com/p/four-charts-on-q4

 

            SOX (semiconductor index) overbought.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/sexy-sox-overbought-overloved-overheating

 

            The latest from Goldman’s trading desk.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/goldman-trader-ai-will-it-wont-it-debate-wont-be-decided-many-quarters

 

            King dollar awakens?

            https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/king-dollar-awakens-gaps-shorts-seasonality-collide

 

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

 

                        International

 

August Japanese household spending increased 0.6% versus forecasts of +0.3%; the August preliminary leading economic indicators index was 107.4 versus 106.4.

 

August German factory orders fell 0.8% versus projections of +1.5%.

 

                        Other

 

                          Divining last week’s jobs report.

                          https://bonddad.blogspot.com/2025/10/using-tabulated-state-data-estimated.htm

 

                          And future jobs reports.

  https://wolfstreet.com/2025/10/04/jobs-report-to-get-hit-by-100000-federal-government-deferred-resignations-on-top-of-the-jobs-already-shed-but-ice-is-hiring/

 

                          Real median annual wages are down.

                          https://mishtalk.com/economics/real-median-annual-wages-are-down-over-9-percent-since-may-2021/

 

                          Year to date individual bankruptcies rose 15%.

                          https://www.zerohedge.com/personal-finance/chapter-7-individual-bankruptcy-filings-jump-15-percent-first-9-months-2025

           

            Monetary Policy

 

              Central bank mysticism.

              https://www.forbes.com/sites/johntamny/2025/10/05/sam-altman-vs-economists-and-their-central-bank-mysticism/

 

            Tariffs

 

              If tariffs are ruled illegal, businesses expect refund chaos.

  https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-10-06/trump-tariffs-refund-chaos-predicted-if-supreme-court-rules-them-illegal?srnd=homepage-americas&sref=loFkkPMQ

 

 

            Government Shutdown

 

              Will markets continue to ignore the government shutdown?

            https://www.capitalspectator.com/will-markets-continue-to-ignore-the-government-shutdown/

 

              The real risk isn’t a government shutdown.

https://www.riskhedge.com/outplacement/the-real-risk-isnt-the-government-shutdown/rcm?utm_campaign=RH-144&utm_content=RH144OP820&utm_medium=ED&utm_source=rcm

 

            Investor Alert

 

Yesterday, the Aggressive Growth Portfolio Sold one half of its holding in Monolithic Power Systems (MPWR).

 

     Investing

           

 

            Two market crash facts.

            https://www.tker.co/p/surprising-stock-market-crash-charts

 

            Winners and losers in the Trump economy.

https://smeadcap.com/missives/the-trump-economy/?utm_campaign=Missives&utm_medium=email&_hsenc=p2ANqtz--BL-S4osRh-BMCGfjXh4rbvC0HKC-CFsZVgCZP4DrjumM_3r8ztdhBq6pfL1GDTq1rOzEN7BjDafkdn8wJJzW-R4ehJu60vIKHJhWwFvZLTB6YRJ4&_hsmi=383266565&utm_content=383266421&utm_source=hs_email

                       

            Navigating uncertainty with discipline.

            https://www.advisorperspectives.com/commentaries/2025/10/06/promised-recession-where-is-it

 

            Gold and bitcoin surge over government debt pile.

            https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-10-06/gold-bitcoin-btc-extend-rally-as-us-dollar-japanese-yen-fall-on-politics?sref=loFkkPMQ

 

                Central bank gold buying resumed in August.

            https://talkmarkets.com/content/global-markets/central-bank-gold-buying-rebounded-in-august?post=526662

 

            Gold plated FOMO.

            https://www.ft.com/content/54dc2b76-8c24-4dd7-a01a-7d1f38b5ea6d

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

What I am reading today

 

           

 

 

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