The Morning Call
10/14/25
The
Market
Technical
Monday in the
charts.
Monday in the technical stats.
https://www.barchart.com/stocks/momentum
https://www.barchart.com/stocks/sectors/rankings
https://www.barchart.com/stocks/signals/new-recommendations
Three fear charts.
https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/3-fear-charts-we-are-watching
Fragile markets.
https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/fragile-markets-fridays-shock-still-haunts-vix
China tech cracks.
https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/china-tech-cracks
Monitoring market trends.
https://www.capitalspectator.com/financial-markets-are-sensitive-to-risk-after-all/
The latest from
Goldman’s trading desk.
Fundamental
Headlines
The
Economy
US
The September
small business optimism index was 98.8 versus estimates of 100.5.
International
The August UK employment
rate was 4.8% versus expectations of 4.7%; August average earnings (3mo YoY)
rose 5.0% versus 4.6%.
September Chinese light
vehicle sales were up 14.9% versus consensus of +16.0%.
September German
CPI increased 0.2%, in line.
The October EU economic
sentiment index came in at 22.7 versus projections of 27.1; the October German
economic sentiment index was 39.3 versus 38.0; the October German current conditions
index was -80.0 versus -76.0.
Other
Latest nowcast.
https://econbrowser.com/archives/2025/10/wsj-survey-below-trend-growth
Latest survey of Wall Street economists.
A beautiful deleveraging.
https://www.advisorperspectives.com/commentaries/2025/10/13/big-debt-cycles
Estimating last week’s jobless claims number.
https://bonddad.blogspot.com/2025/10/tabulations-of-state-level-reports.html
Overnight
News
China ups the ante.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/fight-end-china-escalates-trade-war-sanctions-port-fees
Monetary
Policy
Financial repression will create a zombie
economy.
Fiscal
Policy
Trump wants Fannie Mae to go public but retain
government guarantees.
https://mishtalk.com/economics/trump-and-pulte-now-want-fannie-mae-to-subsidize-home-builders/
Investing
Searching for the
meaning of the gold rally.
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/10/11/business/dealbook/gold-prices-paradox.html
Why is gold going
up?
https://talkmarkets.com/content/commodities/why-gold-is-going-up?post=528084
Gold bubble won’t
die.
https://www.zerohedge.com/precious-metals/gold-bubble-wont-die-until-there-seller
Historic squeeze
in silver.
The dumbest stock market
in history.
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/this-is-the-dumbest-stock-market-in-history-815aaa05?st=sd4CLw
The upside to not
being stupid.
https://abnormalreturns.com/2025/10/12/the-upside-to-not-being-stupid/
The positive case
for stock valuations.
The rules for
investing are being loosened.
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/10/13/magazine/investing-private-equity-crypto-crash-1929.html
Bonds are crashing
at breakneck speed.
S&P warns on
private credit.
https://www.ft.com/content/c68d5a70-9ac3-43dd-8857-310cb3fb3f5c
News on Stocks in Our Portfolios
Johnson &
Johnson press
release (NYSE:JNJ): Q3 Non-GAAP EPS of $2.80 beats by
$0.04.
Revenue of $24B
(+6.7% Y/Y) beats by $240M.
Johnson &
Johnson (NYSE:JNJ) declares $1.30/share quarterly dividend, in line with previous.
BlackRock press release (NYSE:BLK): Q3 Non-GAAP EPS of $11.55 beats by $0.24.
Revenue of
$6.51B (+25.4% Y/Y) beats by $220M.
What
I am reading today
Voyager
1 at the edge of our solar system.
https://www.bgr.com/1984386/nasa-voyager-1-discovery-wall-of-fire/
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