Tuesday, October 14, 2025

The Morning Call---China ups the ante

 

The Morning Call

 

10/14/25

 

The Market

         

    Technical

 

            Monday in the charts.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/market-recaps/gold-silver-soar-new-record-highs-taco-talk-sparks-rebound-stocks

 

                Monday in the technical stats.

            https://www.barchart.com/stocks/momentum

            https://www.barchart.com/stocks/sectors/rankings

            https://www.barchart.com/stocks/signals/new-recommendations

 

            Three fear charts.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/3-fear-charts-we-are-watching

 

            Fragile markets.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/fragile-markets-fridays-shock-still-haunts-vix

 

            China tech cracks.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/china-tech-cracks

 

            Monitoring market trends.

            https://www.capitalspectator.com/financial-markets-are-sensitive-to-risk-after-all/

 

            The latest from Goldman’s trading desk.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/what-everyone-else-doing-market-positioning-and-technicals-cheat-sheet

 

    Fundamental

 

        Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

 

The September small business optimism index was 98.8 versus estimates of 100.5.

 

                        International

 

The August UK employment rate was 4.8% versus expectations of 4.7%; August average earnings (3mo YoY) rose 5.0% versus 4.6%.

 

September Chinese light vehicle sales were up 14.9% versus consensus of +16.0%.

 

September German CPI increased 0.2%, in line.

 

The October EU economic sentiment index came in at 22.7 versus projections of 27.1; the October German economic sentiment index was 39.3 versus 38.0; the October German current conditions index was -80.0 versus -76.0.

 

                        Other

 

                          Latest nowcast.

                          https://econbrowser.com/archives/2025/10/wsj-survey-below-trend-growth

 

                          Latest survey of Wall Street economists.

                          https://www.wsj.com/economy/central-banking/economist-survey-jobs-economic-growth-f76381f8?mod=economy_lead_pos4

 

                          A beautiful deleveraging.

                          https://www.advisorperspectives.com/commentaries/2025/10/13/big-debt-cycles

 

                          Estimating last week’s jobless claims number.

                          https://bonddad.blogspot.com/2025/10/tabulations-of-state-level-reports.html

 

            Overnight News

 

              China ups the ante.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/fight-end-china-escalates-trade-war-sanctions-port-fees

 

            Monetary Policy

 

              Financial repression will create a zombie economy.

              https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2025-10-13/a-zombie-economy-could-be-america-s-future?srnd=homepage-americas&sref=loFkkPMQ

 

            Fiscal Policy

 

              Trump wants Fannie Mae to go public but retain government guarantees.

              https://mishtalk.com/economics/trump-and-pulte-now-want-fannie-mae-to-subsidize-home-builders/

 

     Investing

 

            Searching for the meaning of the gold rally.

            https://www.nytimes.com/2025/10/11/business/dealbook/gold-prices-paradox.html

 

            Why is gold going up?

            https://talkmarkets.com/content/commodities/why-gold-is-going-up?post=528084

 

            Gold bubble won’t die.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/precious-metals/gold-bubble-wont-die-until-there-seller

 

            Historic squeeze in silver.

                https://www.zerohedge.com/precious-metals/never-seen-anything-it-amid-historic-squeeze-silver-traders-rush-bars-london

 

            The dumbest stock market in history.

            https://www.marketwatch.com/story/this-is-the-dumbest-stock-market-in-history-815aaa05?st=sd4CLw

 

            The upside to not being stupid.

            https://abnormalreturns.com/2025/10/12/the-upside-to-not-being-stupid/

           

 

            The positive case for stock valuations.

                        https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2025-10-13/this-stock-market-is-nothing-like-the-dot-com-bubble?srnd=homepage-americas&sref=loFkkPMQ

 

            The rules for investing are being loosened.

            https://www.nytimes.com/2025/10/13/magazine/investing-private-equity-crypto-crash-1929.html

 

            Bonds are crashing at breakneck speed.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2025-10-12/first-brands-tricolor-wipeouts-show-cracks-in-credit-golden-age?srnd=homepage-americas&sref=loFkkPMQ

 

            S&P warns on private credit.

            https://www.ft.com/content/c68d5a70-9ac3-43dd-8857-310cb3fb3f5c

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

Johnson & Johnson press release (NYSE:JNJ): Q3 Non-GAAP EPS of $2.80 beats by $0.04.

Revenue of $24B (+6.7% Y/Y) beats by $240M.

 

Johnson & Johnson (NYSE:JNJ) declares $1.30/share quarterly dividend, in line with previous.

 

BlackRock press release (NYSE:BLK): Q3 Non-GAAP EPS of $11.55 beats by $0.24.

Revenue of $6.51B (+25.4% Y/Y) beats by $220M.

 

What I am reading today

 

            Voyager 1 at the edge of our solar system.

            https://www.bgr.com/1984386/nasa-voyager-1-discovery-wall-of-fire/

 

 

Visit Investing for Survival’s website (http://investingforsurvival.com/home) to learn more about our Investment Strategy, Prices Disciplines and Subscriber Service.

 

 

 

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