The Averages (27781, 3096) again turned in a mixed performance (Dow down fractionally, S&P up fractionally). Volume was up. Breadth was weaker but remains in overbought territory. The VIX was down 3/8 %---but continues to support the breadth overbought reading.
My assumption remains that momentum is to the upside; but there are still some short term negatives: (1) October 11th gap up opens need to be closed, (2) the VIX and breadth suggest equities are overbought and (3) the rate of change in the upward momentum of the indices is slowing noticeably.
The bond market continues to roar back, advancing another 1%. It is now approaching its 100 DMA which recently reverted to resistance. Clearly, a successful challenge to the upside would indicate an end to price weakness and the thesis that the economy is strengthening.
The dollar was down two cents but remains strong. And that suggests either a strong economy or a flight to safety.
Gold advanced another 3/8 %; and like TLT is nearing its 100 DMA which recently reverted to resistance. Also, like TLT, a successful challenge to the upside would suggest a change in momentum and question the thesis that the economy is strengthening.
Thursday in the charts.
Yesterday’s numbers were mixed. October PPI was above expectations (which makes the Fed happy) while weekly jobless claims were disappointing.
Overseas, the data turned negative again. Preliminary Q3 Japanese GDP growth, Q3 EU employment, October Chinese fixed asset investments, industrial production and retail sales as well as October UK retail sales were below estimates. The flash German Q3 GDP was better than expected; and the second estimate of Q3 EU GDP growth was in line.
Japan’s economy slows.
China’s economy slows.
Not only that, but China’s massive credit expansion is just offsetting rising bad loans (this is really important).
German economy narrowly escapes recession.
In other news:
China said that it is holding in depth talks with US.
***overnight, Kudlow says trade talks down to the short strokes.
And the Fed announced its NotQE schedule for the rest of the year---and didn’t disappoint. Money for nothing and the chicks are free.
BofA calls out the Fed on NotQE.
I have long complained that one of the ill effects of QE was the inequality of the distribution of wealth. Here are some stats that back me up.
Liquidity trumps uncertainty.
Bottom line: the economy is not improving. The only real reason for even considering that it was the recent pin action in TLT and GLD which were pointing to higher rates/stronger economy. Those moves appear to be reversing.
On the other hand, yesterday the Fed reaffirmed that the liquidity spigot remains on full blast. And as you know, I believe that as long as it is, stock prices will continue to advance with the caveat that at some point investors may wake up to the reality of this irresponsible policy.
This is for the bulls. Although I would challenge the premise that Markets always discount all that is knowable at any one moment. The operative word is ‘always’. I contend that what the Market knew in October 2008 wasn’t that much different than what it ‘knew’ six months later in March of 2009. In October 2008, investors ‘knew’ that the mortgage back securities market had many problems that could lead to a seize up in the financial system. They ‘knew’ it because multiple analysts pointed it out. But they chose to ignore it because they were greedy. In March 2009, they ‘knew’ it because it happened. But they chose to ignore the magnitude of the problem because they were fearful. In short, what the Market ‘knows’ and how it deals with it are two different matters. That is why having a Valuation Model and a Buy/Sell Discipline is a better strategy than buy and hold.
2019 dividend cuts to date.
News on Stocks in Our Portfolios
NIKE (NYSE:NKE) declares $0.245/share quarterly dividend, 11.4% increase from prior dividend of $0.22.
This Week’s Data
October retail sales were up 0.3% versus expectations of up 0.2%; however, ex autos, they were up 0.2% versus +0.4%.
The Ny Fed manufacturing index came in at 2.9 versus forecasts of 5.0.
September Japanese industrial production rose 1.7% versus estimates of +1.4%; capacity utilization was +1.0% versus -0.6%.
The September EU trade surplus was E18.7 billion versus consensus of E17.5 billion; its October CPI was +0.1% versus +0.2%.
Not surprisingly, Hong Kong’s Q3 GDP contracted 3.2%.
Mortgage delinquencies fall to 25 year low.
What I am reading today
The making of Americans.
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