tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-46708370836727371092024-03-18T05:26:48.845-07:00Investing for SurvivalAn Analysis of Daily Events that Impact Your MoneySteven J Cookhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15993653615335271862noreply@blogger.comBlogger3829125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4670837083672737109.post-67657274386493023052024-03-18T05:25:00.000-07:002024-03-18T05:25:50.803-07:00Monday Morning Chartology<p> </p><div style="border-bottom: dotted windowtext 3.0pt; border: none; mso-element: para-border-div; padding: 0in 0in 1.0pt 0in;">
<p align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="border: none; mso-border-bottom-alt: dotted windowtext 3.0pt; mso-padding-alt: 0in 0in 1.0pt 0in; padding: 0in; text-align: center;"><a name="_Hlk161052621"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="font-size: 22.0pt;">The Morning
Call<o:p></o:p></span></i></b></a></p>
</div>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bookmark: _Hlk161052621;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;"><span style="mso-bookmark: _Hlk161052621;">3/18/24<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;"><span style="mso-bookmark: _Hlk161052621;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bookmark: _Hlk161052621;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><u><span style="font-size: 16.0pt;">The Market</span></u></i></b></span><span style="mso-bookmark: _Hlk161052621;"><span style="font-size: 16.0pt; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bookmark: _Hlk161052621;"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bookmark: _Hlk161052621;"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><u>Technical<o:p></o:p></u></i></b></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bookmark: _Hlk161052621;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><u><span style="font-size: 14.0pt;"><o:p><span style="text-decoration: none;"> </span></o:p></span></u></i></b></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: .5in; text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bookmark: _Hlk161052621;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">The S&P spent another directionless week. While
almost all of its trendlines and DMAs are showing support, (1) it closed below the
lower boundary of its very short term uptrend. If it finishes there today, that
trend will be negated. But remember that very short term trends get broken easily
and can be reset quickly, (2) it still has that large gap up open below that
needs to be filled. <o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: .5in; text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bookmark: _Hlk161052621;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p> </o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: .5in; text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bookmark: _Hlk161052621;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">That said, if the S&P does successfully
challenge its very short term uptrend, I will not press my luck and sell my IWN
trading position.</span><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p></o:p></span></i></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bookmark: _Hlk161052621;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bookmark: _Hlk161052621;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>Goldman runs for cover.<o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bookmark: _Hlk161052621;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span></span></span><span style="mso-bookmark: _Hlk161052621;"></span><a href="https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/goldman-runs-cover-tells-client-buy-vix-calls-now"><span style="mso-bookmark: _Hlk161052621;"><span style="font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/goldman-runs-cover-tells-client-buy-vix-calls-now</span></span><span style="mso-bookmark: _Hlk161052621;"></span></a><span style="mso-bookmark: _Hlk161052621;"><span style="font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bookmark: _Hlk161052621;"><span style="font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p> </o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bookmark: _Hlk161052621;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span></i></b><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">This is not 2023.<o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bookmark: _Hlk161052621;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span></span></span><a href="https://allstarcharts.com/us-consumer-hurting-badly/"><span style="mso-bookmark: _Hlk161052621;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">https://allstarcharts.com/us-consumer-hurting-badly/</span></span><span style="mso-bookmark: _Hlk161052621;"></span></a><span style="mso-bookmark: _Hlk161052621;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bookmark: _Hlk161052621;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p> </o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bookmark: _Hlk161052621;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>Twelve technical observations.<o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bookmark: _Hlk161052621;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span></span></span><a href="https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/12-tech-observations"><span style="mso-bookmark: _Hlk161052621;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/12-tech-observations</span></span><span style="mso-bookmark: _Hlk161052621;"></span></a><span style="mso-bookmark: _Hlk161052621;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bookmark: _Hlk161052621;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p> </o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bookmark: _Hlk161052621;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p> </o:p></span></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhmr35q3vuNEYnAmC79V2nsSNAEbdrVuqxSNOeo68B8srW0OHu3YWTJ65NrVIuVGoY1qVOgO_HbASbRWB90p16SUVES33bWkc6dGsMiqsGN9UM97GDGK69J-3j4F43e0IdKIi90yVGbAL5Huu8xw2jqR6E05-WfvAWdndelbe4ZQpWBZbPdYv54NxNngks/s1920/sp31824.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1080" data-original-width="1920" height="360" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhmr35q3vuNEYnAmC79V2nsSNAEbdrVuqxSNOeo68B8srW0OHu3YWTJ65NrVIuVGoY1qVOgO_HbASbRWB90p16SUVES33bWkc6dGsMiqsGN9UM97GDGK69J-3j4F43e0IdKIi90yVGbAL5Huu8xw2jqR6E05-WfvAWdndelbe4ZQpWBZbPdYv54NxNngks/w640-h360/sp31824.jpg" width="640" /></a></div><br /><p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bookmark: _Hlk161052621;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: .5in; text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bookmark: _Hlk161052621;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">As suggested below, the Fed regained control of the
Market narrative (i.e., it will stay tighter for longer). In the ensuing sell
off, TLT closed the prior week’s gap up open, made a third lower high and ended
below all three DMAs. Plus, it remains in downtrends across all timeframes. Until
it can establish a higher high on a very short term basis, the assumption has to
be that the trend is down (rates up).<o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: .5in; text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bookmark: _Hlk161052621;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p> </o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: .5in; text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bookmark: _Hlk161052621;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p> </o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: .5in; text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bookmark: _Hlk161052621;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p> </o:p></span></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh_jl-fX0OfC9GDj6AaZsxVY44JwsbrDclJTalWWARdUs8i_R5ZLbl8vSgKsX4z0Xz-odvtl3zSJ8N-LNx2aVXiRFZmUjZutJyHeRvnPNY5SfnCd6ymh4qng19p3W7T3Ph4Kk9X-oFmCkCKaDb38G-Tvnaw0aEF_x9rVUpxgUEDZ83RnNZt87wk2eufQ_o/s1920/tlt31824.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1080" data-original-width="1920" height="360" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh_jl-fX0OfC9GDj6AaZsxVY44JwsbrDclJTalWWARdUs8i_R5ZLbl8vSgKsX4z0Xz-odvtl3zSJ8N-LNx2aVXiRFZmUjZutJyHeRvnPNY5SfnCd6ymh4qng19p3W7T3Ph4Kk9X-oFmCkCKaDb38G-Tvnaw0aEF_x9rVUpxgUEDZ83RnNZt87wk2eufQ_o/w640-h360/tlt31824.jpg" width="640" /></a></div><br /><p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: .5in; text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bookmark: _Hlk161052621;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p> </o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: .5in; text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bookmark: _Hlk161052621;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p> </o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: .5in; text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bookmark: _Hlk161052621;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p> </o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: .5in; text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bookmark: _Hlk161052621;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">GLD spent the week digesting the huge gains from
the prior week. It still has those two gap up opens that need to be filled; but
its current narrow consolidation range suggests that gold has seen a major
breakout. I continue to hold a small position in GDX---the gold miners ETF. </span><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p></o:p></i></b></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: .5in; tab-stops: 60.7pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bookmark: _Hlk161052621;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: .5in; text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bookmark: _Hlk161052621;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p> </o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: .5in; text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bookmark: _Hlk161052621;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p> </o:p></span></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhoFW3NAXdLUhTysYjW-GuW5q86YdO5rb2XQJ2LMuymjwAps2E29xlBYkvtsYZoc1fbYla-VRkxREAS-X2MGwCoN4oLBtPJ29i0zAwF_UM96hSD8ZF0RytIl4uPDvs7wFvt3oUO8U9GyVklb_DJ4LC5R3JyKBQr2iILPM4DfjTRlds818aGphHm4pu-GXs/s1920/gld31824.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1080" data-original-width="1920" height="360" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhoFW3NAXdLUhTysYjW-GuW5q86YdO5rb2XQJ2LMuymjwAps2E29xlBYkvtsYZoc1fbYla-VRkxREAS-X2MGwCoN4oLBtPJ29i0zAwF_UM96hSD8ZF0RytIl4uPDvs7wFvt3oUO8U9GyVklb_DJ4LC5R3JyKBQr2iILPM4DfjTRlds818aGphHm4pu-GXs/w640-h360/gld31824.jpg" width="640" /></a></div><br /><p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: .5in; text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bookmark: _Hlk161052621;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p> </o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: .5in; text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bookmark: _Hlk161052621;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">The dollar had a good week as the Fed pinky promised
to stay tighter for longer. While it bounced off its 50 DMA, it remains in a
very short term downtrend. Longer term, its chart is in decent shape; it just
has a lot to overcome short term.</span><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p></o:p></i></b></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: .5in; text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bookmark: _Hlk161052621;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: .5in; text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bookmark: _Hlk161052621;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi7Kmtrn5ZY_Tdlfb503pcqnPaHl4Fix-i5fqOM5JUG56thaezsRsvW2uVN-i82mHtqU4BXmLT1Ur5mnKh-q8ez8J4iwbsgOnLX3W_EAnY_FHpBXqSVNj5l1TkTN1m4-ZetBGknuG80QNUs5SXps9zNIE3C6lPCC71_AX6je-wwlTUeUy9Ysl4OLT03Y48/s1920/uup31824.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1080" data-original-width="1920" height="360" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi7Kmtrn5ZY_Tdlfb503pcqnPaHl4Fix-i5fqOM5JUG56thaezsRsvW2uVN-i82mHtqU4BXmLT1Ur5mnKh-q8ez8J4iwbsgOnLX3W_EAnY_FHpBXqSVNj5l1TkTN1m4-ZetBGknuG80QNUs5SXps9zNIE3C6lPCC71_AX6je-wwlTUeUy9Ysl4OLT03Y48/w640-h360/uup31824.jpg" width="640" /></a></i></b></div><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><br /></i></b><p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: .5in; text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bookmark: _Hlk161052621;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: .5in; text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bookmark: _Hlk161052621;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bookmark: _Hlk161052621;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span></i></b><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">Friday in the charts.<o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bookmark: _Hlk161052621;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span></span></span><span style="mso-bookmark: _Hlk161052621;"></span><a href="https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/bad-news-battered-bonds-big-tech-banks-week-copper-crude-rip"><span style="mso-bookmark: _Hlk161052621;"><span style="font-size: 9.0pt; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/bad-news-battered-bonds-big-tech-banks-week-copper-crude-rip</span></span><span style="mso-bookmark: _Hlk161052621;"></span></a><span style="mso-bookmark: _Hlk161052621;"><span style="font-size: 9.0pt; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bookmark: _Hlk161052621;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bookmark: _Hlk161052621;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></i></b></span><span style="mso-bookmark: _Hlk161052621;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><u><span style="font-size: 14.0pt;">Fundamental</span></u></i></b><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bookmark: _Hlk161052621;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bookmark: _Hlk161052621;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Headlines</i></b><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bookmark: _Hlk161052621;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="tab-stops: 41.95pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bookmark: _Hlk161052621;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>The Economy</i></b><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="tab-stops: 41.95pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bookmark: _Hlk161052621;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="tab-stops: 41.95pt 1.0in 1.5in 2.0in 2.5in center 3.0in; text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bookmark: _Hlk161052621;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 2;"> </span>Week
in review<o:p></o:p></i></b></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="tab-stops: 41.95pt 1.0in 1.5in 2.0in 2.5in center 3.0in; text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bookmark: _Hlk161052621;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 1.0in; tab-stops: 41.95pt 1.0in 1.5in 2.0in 2.5in center 3.0in; text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bookmark: _Hlk161052621;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">Last week’s stats in the US were negative as were the
primary indicators (one positive, three negative). Perhaps as important, a
pattern is developing in the data reporting in which prior month’s readings are
being revised down. That tends to get lost in the reporting of the current
month’s reporting (which are generally positive) but clearly a consistent
pattern of downward revisions points to a weaker economy than is generally accepted.
It also means that the economy is weaker than reflected in current month’s
stats. I am not saying that recession is a lock; but we are definitely not out
of the woods. In short, no reason to back off my recession call.<o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 1.0in; tab-stops: 41.95pt 1.0in 1.5in 2.0in 2.5in center 3.0in; text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bookmark: _Hlk161052621;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p> </o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 1.0in; tab-stops: 41.95pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bookmark: _Hlk161052621;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">Bottom line:<o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 1.0in; tab-stops: 41.95pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bookmark: _Hlk161052621;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p> </o:p></span></i></span></p>
<p class="MsoListParagraph" style="margin-left: 1.25in; mso-add-space: auto; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; tab-stops: 41.95pt 1.0in 1.5in 2.0in 2.5in center 3.0in; text-align: justify; text-indent: -.25in;"><span style="mso-bookmark: _Hlk161052621;"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="mso-bidi-font-size: 6.0pt; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">(1)<span style="font: 7.0pt "Times New Roman";">
</span></span></span><!--[endif]--><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">the overall economic outlook remains unclear,</span></span><span style="mso-bookmark: _Hlk161052621;"><span style="font-size: 6.0pt; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"> <o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="tab-stops: 41.95pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bookmark: _Hlk161052621;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p> </o:p></span></i></span></p>
<p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpFirst" style="margin-left: 1.25in; mso-add-space: auto; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; tab-stops: 41.95pt; text-align: justify; text-indent: -.25in;"><span style="mso-bookmark: _Hlk161052621;"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="mso-bidi-font-size: 7.0pt; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">(2)<span style="font: 7.0pt "Times New Roman";">
</span></span></span><!--[endif]--><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">I am not altering my inflation forecast [i.e., inflation
in the rear view mirror] ---although the numbers keep getting worse and the Fed
keeps sending mixed signals. </span></span><span style="mso-bookmark: _Hlk161052621;"><span style="font-size: 7.0pt; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="margin-left: 1.25in; mso-add-space: auto;"><span style="mso-bookmark: _Hlk161052621;"></span><a href="https://www.aier.org/article/inflation-remains-elevated-is-money-actually-tight/"><span style="mso-bookmark: _Hlk161052621;"><span style="font-size: 10.0pt; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">https://www.aier.org/article/inflation-remains-elevated-is-money-actually-tight/</span></span><span style="mso-bookmark: _Hlk161052621;"></span></a><span style="mso-bookmark: _Hlk161052621;"><span style="font-size: 10.0pt; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="margin-left: 1.25in; mso-add-space: auto;"><span style="mso-bookmark: _Hlk161052621;"><span style="font-size: 10.0pt; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p> </o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpLast" style="margin-left: 1.25in; mso-add-space: auto; tab-stops: 41.95pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bookmark: _Hlk161052621;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">My primary concern
remains that an easing in monetary policy will only amplify the impact of a
grossly irresponsible fiscal policy which if left unresolved will ultimately
push interest rates and inflation to even higher levels, risking a tighter
monetary policy and impeding the economy’s ability to grow.<o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="tab-stops: 41.95pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bookmark: _Hlk161052621;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 2;"> </span></span></b><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span></span><span style="mso-bookmark: _Hlk161052621;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p></o:p></span></i></span></p>
<p class="MsoListParagraph" style="margin-left: 1.25in; mso-add-space: auto; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; tab-stops: 41.95pt 75.2pt; text-align: justify; text-indent: -.25in;"><span style="mso-bookmark: _Hlk161052621;"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">(3)<span style="font: 7.0pt "Times New Roman";"> </span></span></span><!--[endif]--><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">the question of
recession [what kind of landing] remains a bit murky, especially with the constant
downward revisions in the data. As you know, my forecast had been for some type
of growth problem which I have considered changing. But not yet.</span><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic;"><o:p></o:p></span></b></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="tab-stops: 41.95pt 75.2pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bookmark: _Hlk161052621;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="font-size: 8.0pt;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 2;"> </span><span style="mso-tab-count: 2;"> </span></span><o:p></o:p></i></b></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="tab-stops: 41.95pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bookmark: _Hlk161052621;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>US</i></b><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bookmark: _Hlk161052621;"><span style="font-size: 7.0pt; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p> </o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bookmark: _Hlk161052621;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="font-size: 7.0pt;"><o:p> </o:p></span></i></b></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bookmark: _Hlk161052621;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 2;"> </span>International</i></b><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bookmark: _Hlk161052621;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 78.0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bookmark: _Hlk161052621;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">The January EU trade balance was +E11.4 billion
versus estimates of +E20.0 billion; February CPI was +0.6%, in line.<o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bookmark: _Hlk161052621;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bookmark: _Hlk161052621;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 2;"> </span>Other<o:p></o:p></i></b></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bookmark: _Hlk161052621;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bookmark: _Hlk161052621;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>The Fed<o:p></o:p></i></b></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bookmark: _Hlk161052621;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bookmark: _Hlk161052621;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span></i></b><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">The
Fed sticking with its three rate cuts in 2024 agenda.<o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: .5in; text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bookmark: _Hlk161052621;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span></span><span style="mso-bookmark: _Hlk161052621;"></span><a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-03-15/fed-seen-sticking-with-three-2024-cuts-despite-higher-inflation?srnd=homepage-americas&embedded-checkout=true&sref=loFkkPMQ"><span style="mso-bookmark: _Hlk161052621;"><span style="font-size: 6.0pt; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-03-15/fed-seen-sticking-with-three-2024-cuts-despite-higher-inflation?srnd=homepage-americas&embedded-checkout=true&sref=loFkkPMQ</span></span><span style="mso-bookmark: _Hlk161052621;"></span></a><span style="mso-bookmark: _Hlk161052621;"><span style="font-size: 6.0pt; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bookmark: _Hlk161052621;"><span style="font-size: 6.0pt; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p> </o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bookmark: _Hlk161052621;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span><o:p></o:p></i></b></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bookmark: _Hlk161052621;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>Fiscal Policy<span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span><o:p></o:p></i></b></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bookmark: _Hlk161052621;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bookmark: _Hlk161052621;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span></i></b><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">Illegal
immigrants racked up billions in medical expenses.<o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bookmark: _Hlk161052621;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span></span></span><span style="mso-bookmark: _Hlk161052621;"></span><a href="https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/illegal-immigrants-leave-us-hospitals-billions-unpaid-bills"><span style="mso-bookmark: _Hlk161052621;"><span style="font-size: 10.0pt; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/illegal-immigrants-leave-us-hospitals-billions-unpaid-bills</span></span><span style="mso-bookmark: _Hlk161052621;"></span></a><span style="mso-bookmark: _Hlk161052621;"><span style="font-size: 10.0pt; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bookmark: _Hlk161052621;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bookmark: _Hlk161052621;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>Inflation<o:p></o:p></i></b></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bookmark: _Hlk161052621;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bookmark: _Hlk161052621;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span></i></b><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">Inflation
is not running hot.<o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bookmark: _Hlk161052621;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span></span></span><a href="https://scottgrannis.blogspot.com/2024/03/inflation-is-not-running-hot.html"><span style="mso-bookmark: _Hlk161052621;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">https://scottgrannis.blogspot.com/2024/03/inflation-is-not-running-hot.html</span></span><span style="mso-bookmark: _Hlk161052621;"></span></a><span style="mso-bookmark: _Hlk161052621;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bookmark: _Hlk161052621;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bookmark: _Hlk161052621;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span></i></b><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">Ex
shelter, inflation is rising less than 2% per year.<o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bookmark: _Hlk161052621;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span></span></span><span style="mso-bookmark: _Hlk161052621;"></span><a href="https://scottgrannis.blogspot.com/2024/03/ex-shelter-inflation-has-been-less-than.html"><span style="mso-bookmark: _Hlk161052621;"><span style="font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">https://scottgrannis.blogspot.com/2024/03/ex-shelter-inflation-has-been-less-than.html</span></span><span style="mso-bookmark: _Hlk161052621;"></span></a><span style="mso-bookmark: _Hlk161052621;"><span style="font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bookmark: _Hlk161052621;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bookmark: _Hlk161052621;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Recession<o:p></o:p></i></b></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bookmark: _Hlk161052621;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bookmark: _Hlk161052621;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span></i></b><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">Small
businesses are cutting jobs.<o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bookmark: _Hlk161052621;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span></span></span><span style="mso-bookmark: _Hlk161052621;"></span><a href="https://www.usatoday.com/story/opinion/2024/03/14/economy-small-businesses-interest-rates-credit/72955958007/"><span style="mso-bookmark: _Hlk161052621;"><span style="font-size: 8.0pt; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">https://www.usatoday.com/story/opinion/2024/03/14/economy-small-businesses-interest-rates-credit/72955958007/</span></span><span style="mso-bookmark: _Hlk161052621;"></span></a><span style="mso-bookmark: _Hlk161052621;"><span style="font-size: 8.0pt; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bookmark: _Hlk161052621;"><span style="font-size: 8.0pt; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p> </o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bookmark: _Hlk161052621;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span></i></b><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">Big
four recession indicators.<o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bookmark: _Hlk161052621;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span></span></span><span style="mso-bookmark: _Hlk161052621;"><span style="font-size: 7.0pt; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span></span><a href="https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2024/03/15/recession-indicators-industrial-production-up-february-2024"><span style="mso-bookmark: _Hlk161052621;"><span style="font-size: 7.0pt; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2024/03/15/recession-indicators-industrial-production-up-february-2024</span></span><span style="mso-bookmark: _Hlk161052621;"></span></a><span style="mso-bookmark: _Hlk161052621;"><span style="font-size: 7.0pt; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bookmark: _Hlk161052621;"><span style="font-size: 7.0pt; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p> </o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bookmark: _Hlk161052621;"><span style="font-size: 7.0pt; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">The latest Q1 nowcasts.<o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bookmark: _Hlk161052621;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span></span></span><span style="mso-bookmark: _Hlk161052621;"></span><a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/us-economic-growth-still-expected-to-slow-in-q1-gdp-report/"><span style="mso-bookmark: _Hlk161052621;"><span style="font-size: 10.0pt; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">https://www.capitalspectator.com/us-economic-growth-still-expected-to-slow-in-q1-gdp-report/</span></span><span style="mso-bookmark: _Hlk161052621;"></span></a><span style="mso-bookmark: _Hlk161052621;"><span style="font-size: 10.0pt; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bookmark: _Hlk161052621;"><span style="font-size: 10.0pt; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p> </o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bookmark: _Hlk161052621;"><span style="font-size: 10.0pt; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Bottom line<o:p></o:p></i></b></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bookmark: _Hlk161052621;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bookmark: _Hlk161052621;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span></i></b><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">Markets capitulate to Fed on rate cuts.<o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bookmark: _Hlk161052621;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span></span></span><a href="https://www.ft.com/content/e7513369-7537-4ce9-b2ce-5c787cb01b32"><span style="mso-bookmark: _Hlk161052621;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">https://www.ft.com/content/e7513369-7537-4ce9-b2ce-5c787cb01b32</span></span><span style="mso-bookmark: _Hlk161052621;"></span></a><span style="mso-bookmark: _Hlk161052621;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bookmark: _Hlk161052621;"><span style="font-size: 10.0pt; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p> </o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bookmark: _Hlk161052621;"><span style="font-size: 7.0pt; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p> </o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bookmark: _Hlk161052621;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>News
on Stocks in Our Portfolios</i></b><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bookmark: _Hlk161052621;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<div style="background: white; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; margin-left: .5in; margin-right: 0in; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .25pt; mso-element: para-border-div; padding: 0in 0in 0in 25.0pt;">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; border: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .25pt; mso-padding-alt: 0in 0in 0in 25.0pt; padding: 0in;"><span style="mso-bookmark: _Hlk161052621;"><span style="color: black;">Oracle </span></span><a href="https://seekingalpha.com/pr/19651110-oracle-announces-fiscal-2024-third-quarter-financial-results?hasComeFromMpArticle=false&source=content_type%253Areact%257Csection%253Amain_content%257Cbutton%253Abody_link%257Cfirst_level_url%253Anews"><span style="mso-bookmark: _Hlk161052621;"><span style="border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .25pt; padding: 0in;">press release</span></span></a><span style="mso-bookmark: _Hlk161052621;"><span style="color: black;"> (<span class="ticker-hover-wrapper"><span style="border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .25pt; padding: 0in;">NYSE:</span></span></span></span><a href="https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/ORCL?hasComeFromMpArticle=false&source=content_type%253Areact%257Csection%253Amain_content%257Cbutton%253Abody_link%257Cfirst_level_url%253Anews" title="Oracle Corporation"><span style="mso-bookmark: _Hlk161052621;"><span style="border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .25pt; padding: 0in;">ORCL</span></span></a><span style="mso-bookmark: _Hlk161052621;"><span style="color: black;">): Q3 Non-GAAP EPS of $1.41 <span class="green"><span style="border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .25pt; padding: 0in;">beats by $0.03</span></span>.<o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; border: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .25pt; mso-padding-alt: 0in 0in 0in 25.0pt; padding: 0in;"><span style="mso-bookmark: _Hlk161052621;"><span style="color: black;">Revenue of $13.28B (+7.1% Y/Y) in-line; up 7% in both USD
and constant currency.<o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; border: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .25pt; mso-padding-alt: 0in 0in 0in 25.0pt; padding: 0in;"><span style="mso-bookmark: _Hlk161052621;"><span style="color: black;"><o:p> </o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; border: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .25pt; mso-padding-alt: 0in 0in 0in 25.0pt; padding: 0in;"><span style="mso-bookmark: _Hlk161052621;"><span style="color: black;">Oracle (<span class="ticker-hover-wrapper"><span style="border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .25pt; padding: 0in;">NYSE:</span></span></span></span><a href="https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/ORCL?hasComeFromMpArticle=false&source=content_type%253Areact%257Csection%253Amain_content%257Cbutton%253Abody_link%257Cfirst_level_url%253Anews" title="Oracle Corporation"><span style="mso-bookmark: _Hlk161052621;"><span style="border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .25pt; padding: 0in;">ORCL</span></span><span style="mso-bookmark: _Hlk161052621;"></span></a><span style="mso-bookmark: _Hlk161052621;"><span style="color: black;">) declares </span></span><a href="https://seekingalpha.com/pr/19651110-oracle-announces-fiscal-2024-third-quarter-financial-results?hasComeFromMpArticle=false&source=content_type%253Areact%257Csection%253Amain_content%257Cbutton%253Abody_link%257Cfirst_level_url%253Anews"><span style="mso-bookmark: _Hlk161052621;"><span style="border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .25pt; padding: 0in;">$0.40/share quarterly
dividend</span></span><span style="mso-bookmark: _Hlk161052621;"></span></a><span style="mso-bookmark: _Hlk161052621;"><span style="color: black;">, in line with
previous.<o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; border: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .25pt; mso-padding-alt: 0in 0in 0in 25.0pt; padding: 0in;"><span style="mso-bookmark: _Hlk161052621;"><span style="color: black;"><o:p> </o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; border: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .25pt; mso-padding-alt: 0in 0in 0in 25.0pt; padding: 0in;"><span style="mso-bookmark: _Hlk161052621;"><span style="color: black;">Williams-Sonoma (<span class="ticker-hover-wrapper"><span style="border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .25pt; padding: 0in;"><span style="--tw-border-spacing-x: 0; --tw-border-spacing-y: 0; --tw-ring-color: #3b82f680; --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; --tw-scale-x: 1; --tw-scale-y: 1; --tw-scroll-snap-strictness: proximity; --tw-shadow-colored: 0 0 #0000; --tw-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-skew-x: 0; --tw-skew-y: 0; --tw-translate-x: 0; --tw-translate-y: 0; box-sizing: border-box;">NYSE:</span></span></span></span><a href="https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/WSM?hasComeFromMpArticle=false&source=content_type%253Areact%257Csection%253Amain_content%257Cbutton%253Abody_link%257Cfirst_level_url%253Anews" style="--tw-border-spacing-x: 0; --tw-border-spacing-y: 0; --tw-ring-color: #3b82f680; --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; --tw-scale-x: 1; --tw-scale-y: 1; --tw-scroll-snap-strictness: proximity; --tw-shadow-colored: 0 0 #0000; --tw-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-skew-x: 0; --tw-skew-y: 0; --tw-translate-x: 0; --tw-translate-y: 0; background-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0); box-sizing: border-box; color: var(--sa-link-color);" title="Williams-Sonoma, Inc."><span style="mso-bookmark: _Hlk161052621;"><span style="border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .25pt; padding: 0in;">WSM</span></span><span style="mso-bookmark: _Hlk161052621;"></span></a></span><span style="mso-bookmark: _Hlk161052621;"><span style="color: black;">) declares </span></span><a href="https://seekingalpha.com/pr/19653934-williams-sonoma-inc-announces-26-percent-quarterly-dividend-increase-and-new-1-billion-stock?hasComeFromMpArticle=false&source=content_type%253Areact%257Csection%253Amain_content%257Cbutton%253Abody_link%257Cfirst_level_url%253Anews" style="--tw-border-spacing-x: 0; --tw-border-spacing-y: 0; --tw-ring-color: #3b82f680; --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; --tw-scale-x: 1; --tw-scale-y: 1; --tw-scroll-snap-strictness: proximity; --tw-shadow-colored: 0 0 #0000; --tw-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-skew-x: 0; --tw-skew-y: 0; --tw-translate-x: 0; --tw-translate-y: 0; background-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0); box-sizing: border-box; color: var(--sa-link-color);"><span style="mso-bookmark: _Hlk161052621;"><span style="border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .25pt; padding: 0in;">$1.13/share quarterly
dividend</span></span><span style="mso-bookmark: _Hlk161052621;"></span></a><span style="mso-bookmark: _Hlk161052621;"><span style="color: black;">, <span class="green"><span style="border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .25pt; padding: 0in;"><span style="--tw-border-spacing-x: 0; --tw-border-spacing-y: 0; --tw-ring-color: #3b82f680; --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; --tw-scale-x: 1; --tw-scale-y: 1; --tw-scroll-snap-strictness: proximity; --tw-shadow-colored: 0 0 #0000; --tw-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-skew-x: 0; --tw-skew-y: 0; --tw-translate-x: 0; --tw-translate-y: 0; box-sizing: border-box; color: var(--teal-100);">26%
increase</span></span></span> from prior dividend of $0.90.<o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; border: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .25pt; mso-padding-alt: 0in 0in 0in 25.0pt; padding: 0in;"><span style="mso-bookmark: _Hlk161052621;"><span style="color: black;"><o:p> </o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; border: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .25pt; mso-padding-alt: 0in 0in 0in 25.0pt; padding: 0in;"><span style="mso-bookmark: _Hlk161052621;"><span style="color: black;">Microsoft (<span class="ticker-hover-wrapper"><span style="border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .25pt; padding: 0in;"><span style="--tw-border-spacing-x: 0; --tw-border-spacing-y: 0; --tw-ring-color: #3b82f680; --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; --tw-scale-x: 1; --tw-scale-y: 1; --tw-scroll-snap-strictness: proximity; --tw-shadow-colored: 0 0 #0000; --tw-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-skew-x: 0; --tw-skew-y: 0; --tw-translate-x: 0; --tw-translate-y: 0; box-sizing: border-box;">NASDAQ:</span></span></span></span><a href="https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/MSFT?hasComeFromMpArticle=false&source=content_type%253Areact%257Csection%253Amain_content%257Cbutton%253Abody_link%257Cfirst_level_url%253Anews" style="--tw-border-spacing-x: 0; --tw-border-spacing-y: 0; --tw-ring-color: #3b82f680; --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; --tw-scale-x: 1; --tw-scale-y: 1; --tw-scroll-snap-strictness: proximity; --tw-shadow-colored: 0 0 #0000; --tw-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-skew-x: 0; --tw-skew-y: 0; --tw-translate-x: 0; --tw-translate-y: 0; background-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0); box-sizing: border-box; color: var(--sa-link-color);" title="Microsoft Corporation"><span style="mso-bookmark: _Hlk161052621;"><span style="border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .25pt; padding: 0in;">MSFT</span></span><span style="mso-bookmark: _Hlk161052621;"></span></a></span><span style="mso-bookmark: _Hlk161052621;"><span style="color: black;">) declares </span></span><a href="https://seekingalpha.com/pr/19652993-microsoft-announces-quarterly-dividend?hasComeFromMpArticle=false&source=content_type%253Areact%257Csection%253Amain_content%257Cbutton%253Abody_link%257Cfirst_level_url%253Anews" style="--tw-border-spacing-x: 0; --tw-border-spacing-y: 0; --tw-ring-color: #3b82f680; --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; --tw-scale-x: 1; --tw-scale-y: 1; --tw-scroll-snap-strictness: proximity; --tw-shadow-colored: 0 0 #0000; --tw-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-skew-x: 0; --tw-skew-y: 0; --tw-translate-x: 0; --tw-translate-y: 0; background-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0); box-sizing: border-box; color: var(--sa-link-color);" target="_blank"><span style="mso-bookmark: _Hlk161052621;"><span style="border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .25pt; padding: 0in;">$0.75/share quarterly dividend</span></span><span style="mso-bookmark: _Hlk161052621;"></span></a><span style="mso-bookmark: _Hlk161052621;"><span style="color: black;">, in line with previous.<o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; border: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .25pt; mso-padding-alt: 0in 0in 0in 25.0pt; padding: 0in;"><span style="mso-bookmark: _Hlk161052621;"><span style="color: black;"><o:p> </o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; border: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .25pt; mso-padding-alt: 0in 0in 0in 25.0pt; padding: 0in;"><span style="mso-bookmark: _Hlk161052621;"><span style="color: black;">Kroger (<span class="ticker-hover-wrapper"><span style="border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .25pt; padding: 0in;"><span style="--tw-border-spacing-x: 0; --tw-border-spacing-y: 0; --tw-ring-color: #3b82f680; --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; --tw-scale-x: 1; --tw-scale-y: 1; --tw-scroll-snap-strictness: proximity; --tw-shadow-colored: 0 0 #0000; --tw-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-skew-x: 0; --tw-skew-y: 0; --tw-translate-x: 0; --tw-translate-y: 0; box-sizing: border-box;">NYSE:</span></span></span></span><a href="https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/KR?hasComeFromMpArticle=false&source=content_type%253Areact%257Csection%253Amain_content%257Cbutton%253Abody_link%257Cfirst_level_url%253Anews" style="--tw-border-spacing-x: 0; --tw-border-spacing-y: 0; --tw-ring-color: #3b82f680; --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; --tw-scale-x: 1; --tw-scale-y: 1; --tw-scroll-snap-strictness: proximity; --tw-shadow-colored: 0 0 #0000; --tw-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-skew-x: 0; --tw-skew-y: 0; --tw-translate-x: 0; --tw-translate-y: 0; background-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0); box-sizing: border-box; color: var(--sa-link-color);" title="The Kroger Co."><span style="mso-bookmark: _Hlk161052621;"><span style="border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .25pt; padding: 0in;">KR</span></span><span style="mso-bookmark: _Hlk161052621;"></span></a></span><span style="mso-bookmark: _Hlk161052621;"><span style="color: black;">) declares </span></span><a href="https://seekingalpha.com/pr/19656119-krogers-board-of-directors-declares-quarterly-dividend?hasComeFromMpArticle=false&source=content_type%253Areact%257Csection%253Amain_content%257Cbutton%253Abody_link%257Cfirst_level_url%253Anews" style="--tw-border-spacing-x: 0; --tw-border-spacing-y: 0; --tw-ring-color: #3b82f680; --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; --tw-scale-x: 1; --tw-scale-y: 1; --tw-scroll-snap-strictness: proximity; --tw-shadow-colored: 0 0 #0000; --tw-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-skew-x: 0; --tw-skew-y: 0; --tw-translate-x: 0; --tw-translate-y: 0; background-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0); box-sizing: border-box; color: var(--sa-link-color);" target="_blank"><span style="mso-bookmark: _Hlk161052621;"><span style="border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .25pt; padding: 0in;">$0.29/share quarterly dividend</span></span><span style="mso-bookmark: _Hlk161052621;"></span></a><span style="mso-bookmark: _Hlk161052621;"><span style="color: black;">, in line with previous.<o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
</div>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bookmark: _Hlk161052621;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bookmark: _Hlk161052621;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bookmark: _Hlk161052621;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><u><span style="font-size: 16.0pt;">What I am reading today</span></u></i></b><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bookmark: _Hlk161052621;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bookmark: _Hlk161052621;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>Wisdom form Nvidia’s Huang.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bookmark: _Hlk161052621;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span></span><span style="mso-bookmark: _Hlk161052621;"></span><a href="https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/i-wish-upon-you-ample-doses-pain-and-suffering"><span style="mso-bookmark: _Hlk161052621;"><span style="font-size: 11.0pt;">https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/i-wish-upon-you-ample-doses-pain-and-suffering</span></span><span style="mso-bookmark: _Hlk161052621;"></span></a><span style="mso-bookmark: _Hlk161052621;"><span style="font-size: 11.0pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<div style="border-bottom: dotted windowtext 3.0pt; border: none; mso-element: para-border-div; padding: 0in 0in 1.0pt 0in;">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="border: none; mso-border-bottom-alt: dotted windowtext 3.0pt; mso-padding-alt: 0in 0in 1.0pt 0in; padding: 0in; text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bookmark: _Hlk161052621;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
</div>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-top: 12.0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bookmark: _Hlk161052621;">Visit Investing for Survival’s website (</span><a href="http://investingforsurvival.com/home"><span style="mso-bookmark: _Hlk161052621;">http://investingforsurvival.com/home</span></a><span style="mso-bookmark: _Hlk161052621;">) to learn more about our Investment
Strategy, Prices Disciplines and Subscriber Service.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-top: 12.0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bookmark: _Hlk161052621;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-top: 12.0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bookmark: _Hlk161052621;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<span style="mso-bookmark: _Hlk161052621;"></span>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-top: 12.0pt; text-align: justify;"><o:p> </o:p></p>Steven J Cookhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15993653615335271862noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4670837083672737109.post-17503409369971790702024-03-01T15:39:00.000-08:002024-03-01T15:39:10.917-08:00Monday Morning Chartology---early<p> </p><div style="border-bottom: dotted windowtext 3.0pt; border: none; mso-element: para-border-div; padding: 0in 0in 1.0pt 0in;">
<p align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="border: none; mso-border-bottom-alt: dotted windowtext 3.0pt; mso-padding-alt: 0in 0in 1.0pt 0in; padding: 0in; text-align: center;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="font-size: 24.0pt;">The Morning Call<o:p></o:p></span></i></b></p>
</div>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;">3/4//24<o:p></o:p></p>
<p align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;"><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">I am off the beach for a week.
Back 3/12.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;"><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><u><span style="font-size: 16.0pt;">The
Market</span></u></i></b><span style="font-size: 16.0pt; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><u>Technical<o:p></o:p></u></i></b></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><u><span style="font-size: 14.0pt;"><o:p><span style="text-decoration: none;"> </span></o:p></span></u></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: .5in; text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">The S&P
continued its positive performance. It remains above the upper boundary of that
wedge formation and has no visible resistance except at truly extended levels (~6700).
On the one hand, it has that large gap up open below that should exert a gravitational
pull on the index’s upward momentum. Plus, almost all the Street strategists
seem to agree that valuations are getting extended. On the other hand, none of
them are making a ‘Sell’ call. And the Market internals remain healthy.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: .5in; text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: .5in; text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">Bottom line. Momentum
remains to the upside, at least short term. I continue to hold the IWN trading position.
But as I pointed out last week, several of our holdings are nearing their Sell
Half price range.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>Beware
the ides of March.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span><a href="https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/ides-march">https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/ides-march</a><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhxxprGZBWl2AejZ5hhUpB0n9ozMXZ_fgRPpDYpLK3r09ES1RcfnBQ0GLIbPn9k6TQ_ty7tEUzNl5Ffzb-gwfbRs38TzhnWJ_Mgi-gDVsfdTuL7gxi1v2G3A4CClmr4adLep_cQEJ0dnHsRy5Ow5MfUzUyEt9gB-mB2mM3bOybrddor34KdMfYdeeW2d6Q/s1920/sp3423.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1080" data-original-width="1920" height="360" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhxxprGZBWl2AejZ5hhUpB0n9ozMXZ_fgRPpDYpLK3r09ES1RcfnBQ0GLIbPn9k6TQ_ty7tEUzNl5Ffzb-gwfbRs38TzhnWJ_Mgi-gDVsfdTuL7gxi1v2G3A4CClmr4adLep_cQEJ0dnHsRy5Ow5MfUzUyEt9gB-mB2mM3bOybrddor34KdMfYdeeW2d6Q/w640-h360/sp3423.jpg" width="640" /></a></div><br /><p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: .5in; text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">The long bond was up
again on the week. However, it remains in downtrends across all time frames and
below both its 50 and 200 DMAs. Until it can establish a higher high on a very
short term basis, the assumption has to be that the trend is down.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: .5in; text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: .5in; text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg-cvShp2ChH7h9YDX4Ejn-mhTm0wyYBg8u-JhAy5AiLfwzpzu4EWwQyJCsLDv2WsVrKiV7OdD4k6fMtfcbzzJWgdjyw-8oy1cHeiHIDrhN1y44VM6hZDSKaDfFmU682GBDpUoO_PTuxdFSNT4nQpfFhSy2pmYaGeYN9mxNGPgFQZa8lt0LbbZ19dyjj_o/s1920/tlt3424.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1080" data-original-width="1920" height="360" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg-cvShp2ChH7h9YDX4Ejn-mhTm0wyYBg8u-JhAy5AiLfwzpzu4EWwQyJCsLDv2WsVrKiV7OdD4k6fMtfcbzzJWgdjyw-8oy1cHeiHIDrhN1y44VM6hZDSKaDfFmU682GBDpUoO_PTuxdFSNT4nQpfFhSy2pmYaGeYN9mxNGPgFQZa8lt0LbbZ19dyjj_o/w640-h360/tlt3424.jpg" width="640" /></a></div><br /> <p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: .5in; text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: .5in; text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">GLD rallied hard
on the week and appears to have its all-time high in its sights again. If it
continues to advance that will be its fourth challenge of that high in as many
months---the first three clearly being unsuccessful. Will number four be the
lucky charm? In don’t know. But I do know that (1) it has two big gap up opens
below that need to be filled and (2) I think it pointless to consider a position
in gold until it can break above its all-time high.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: .5in; tab-stops: 60.7pt; text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span><o:p></o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="tab-stops: 60.7pt; text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: .5in; tab-stops: 60.7pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-no-proof: yes;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh7I42LO7jM55DqDr4OYygAP9Ul8iHDLxTJ5fdhzeED4WAmXcELAtBaYqu6_-D4COhcYmWrNppgYlx3ufr311w7NaQFcGg9-Pcb7vo2o8GkhQhyWJ2V3PA3-YBV3JEQJor7oj0ru-bcOJ_Kx7yrPlqIcjGnWZiCkBAL2xAqQkK2xLsiJX6l9u1xyatVlJA/s1920/gld3424.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1080" data-original-width="1920" height="360" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh7I42LO7jM55DqDr4OYygAP9Ul8iHDLxTJ5fdhzeED4WAmXcELAtBaYqu6_-D4COhcYmWrNppgYlx3ufr311w7NaQFcGg9-Pcb7vo2o8GkhQhyWJ2V3PA3-YBV3JEQJor7oj0ru-bcOJ_Kx7yrPlqIcjGnWZiCkBAL2xAqQkK2xLsiJX6l9u1xyatVlJA/w640-h360/gld3424.jpg" width="640" /></a></div><br /><p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: .5in; tab-stops: 60.7pt; text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: .5in; tab-stops: 60.7pt; text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: .5in; text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: .5in; text-align: justify;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">While
the dollar’s long term uptrend remains in place, its short term technical
picture has been wrecked. To be sure, a gap down open of the order of magnitude
shown on the chart begs to be closed. And that is what has been happening since
its low in late December.</span></i><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"> However, two weeks ago week, the dollar’s advance
showed some signs of tiring. As it approached the upper boundary of its short term
downtrend and both its 100 and 200 DMA’s (heavy resistance), it failed to hold
the minor uptrend off its December low. Last week, it was basically traded unchanged---so
no directional follow through.</span><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p></o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiGU3meJAVIbIiXaHTRaLcwllmFHKpKEitB6mTrP6jaCitnldeRDIbPhIgNu6Vuzi_EBEFDPqzEtp-TA4fqh0kOHa_ExXzIFC8zbzkSCZT74VdYESH5lvQfpKhF46k53PJc7ti89Z-5wzLlxcy2ZMD-YA8MvmSuqfYayF_EBrfKESWWg-CNntJ345TUDFM/s1920/uup3424.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1080" data-original-width="1920" height="360" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiGU3meJAVIbIiXaHTRaLcwllmFHKpKEitB6mTrP6jaCitnldeRDIbPhIgNu6Vuzi_EBEFDPqzEtp-TA4fqh0kOHa_ExXzIFC8zbzkSCZT74VdYESH5lvQfpKhF46k53PJc7ti89Z-5wzLlxcy2ZMD-YA8MvmSuqfYayF_EBrfKESWWg-CNntJ345TUDFM/w640-h360/uup3424.jpg" width="640" /></a></i></b></div><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><br /></i></b><p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span></i></b><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">Friday in the
charts.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span></span><span style="font-size: 10.0pt; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><a href="https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/everything-rallies-first-day-march-after-fed-hints-next-qe">https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/everything-rallies-first-day-march-after-fed-hints-next-qe</a><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></i></b><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><u><span style="font-size: 14.0pt;">Fundamental</span></u></i></b><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Headlines</i></b><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="tab-stops: 41.95pt; text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>The
Economy</i></b><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="tab-stops: 41.95pt; text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="tab-stops: 41.95pt 1.0in 1.5in 2.0in 2.5in center 3.0in; text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 2;"> </span>Week in review<o:p></o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="tab-stops: 41.95pt 1.0in 1.5in 2.0in 2.5in center 3.0in; text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 1.0in; tab-stops: 41.95pt 1.0in 1.5in 2.0in 2.5in center 3.0in; text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">It was a big week
for economic data. The stats in the US were overwhelmingly negative while the
primary indicators were tilted to the minus side (one positive, three mixed,
two negative). I think that this puts an end to any thoughts that the economy
was headed for a soft landing which was created by the recent brief string on
upbeat readings. I am not saying that the latest numbers prove that we are
recession bound; but we are definitely not out of the woods. In short, no
reason to back off my recession call.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 1.0in; tab-stops: 41.95pt 1.0in 1.5in 2.0in 2.5in center 3.0in; text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 1.0in; tab-stops: 41.95pt 1.0in 1.5in 2.0in 2.5in center 3.0in; text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">In addition, there
were indications that the trend towards lower inflation was encountering some
problems---supporting the more hawkish tone coming out of the Fed recently. However,
Friday afternoon a regional Fed head made some dovish noises (which the Markets
loved), suggesting that Fed may be getting more confident of its victory over
inflation (see below). So color me confused.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 1.0in; tab-stops: 41.95pt 1.0in 1.5in 2.0in 2.5in center 3.0in; text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 1.0in; tab-stops: 41.95pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">Bottom line:<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 1.0in; tab-stops: 41.95pt; text-align: justify;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p> </o:p></span></i></p>
<p class="MsoListParagraph" style="margin-left: 1.25in; mso-add-space: auto; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; tab-stops: 41.95pt 1.0in 1.5in 2.0in 2.5in center 3.0in; text-align: justify; text-indent: -.25in;"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="mso-bidi-font-size: 6.0pt; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">(1)<span style="font: 7.0pt "Times New Roman";">
</span></span></span><!--[endif]--><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">last week’s data [and Fed speak] certainly muddied
the overall economic outlook,</span><span style="font-size: 6.0pt; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"> <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 1.0in; tab-stops: 41.95pt; text-align: justify;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p> </o:p></span></i></p>
<p class="MsoListParagraph" style="margin-left: 1.25in; mso-add-space: auto; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; tab-stops: 41.95pt; text-align: justify; text-indent: -.25in;"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">(2)<span style="font: 7.0pt "Times New Roman";">
</span></span></span><!--[endif]--><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">unfortunately, the inflation risk may not be behind
us as per my current forecast. I am not altering it yet. And last week’s
numbers coupled with some confusing Fed speak leave me befuddled. However, if
indeed the Fed is considering an easier monetary policy that would only amplify
the impact of a grossly irresponsible fiscal policy which if left unresolved
will ultimately push interest rates and inflation to even higher levels,
risking a tighter monetary policy and impeding the economy’s ability to grow.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="tab-stops: 41.95pt; text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span></span></b><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span><span style="font-size: 9.0pt; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="font-size: 9.0pt; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p></o:p></span></i></p>
<p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpFirst" style="margin-left: 1.25in; mso-add-space: auto; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; tab-stops: 41.95pt 75.2pt; text-align: justify; text-indent: -.25in;"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">(3)<span style="font: 7.0pt "Times New Roman";"> </span></span></span><!--[endif]--><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">just as
unfortunate, the question of recession [what kind of landing] which appeared to
be gaining clarity, turned a bit murkier with last week’s data. As you know, my
forecast had been for some type of growth problem which I was considering
changing. Now, not so much.</span><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic;"><o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-size: 8.0pt; mso-bidi-font-style: italic;"><o:p> </o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpLast" style="margin-left: 1.25in; mso-add-space: auto; tab-stops: 41.95pt 75.2pt; text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="font-size: 8.0pt;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 2;"> </span></span><o:p></o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="tab-stops: 41.95pt; text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>US</i></b><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 7.0pt; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="font-size: 7.0pt;"><o:p> </o:p></span></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>International</i></b><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 2;"> </span>Other<o:p></o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>The
Fed<o:p></o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></i></b><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">Ten reasons why the Fed won’t cut rates in
2024.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span><span style="font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><a href="https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/apollo-10-reasons-why-fed-wont-cut-rates-2024">https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/apollo-10-reasons-why-fed-wont-cut-rates-2024</a><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span></i></b><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Fed’s Waller hints a QE reverse twist.
(similar to the funky chicken)<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span><span style="font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><a href="https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/gold-bonds-soar-feds-waller-hints-qe-reverse-twist">https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/gold-bonds-soar-feds-waller-hints-qe-reverse-twist</a><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>Inflation<o:p></o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></i></b><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">The problem with a 2% inflation target.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><a href="https://www.econlib.org/the-problem-with-doves/">https://www.econlib.org/the-problem-with-doves/</a><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span></i></b><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The latest nowcasts.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><a href="https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2024/03/gdp-tracking-low-2-range.html">https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2024/03/gdp-tracking-low-2-range.html</a><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Bottom line<o:p></o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span></i></b><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">Strategists are
scrambling to keep up with the Market.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: .5in; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 6.0pt; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-03-01/big-tech-s-boom-has-strategists-scrambling-to-keep-up-with-rally?srnd=homepage-americas&embedded-checkout=true&sref=loFkkPMQ">https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-03-01/big-tech-s-boom-has-strategists-scrambling-to-keep-up-with-rally?srnd=homepage-americas&embedded-checkout=true&sref=loFkkPMQ</a><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span></i></b><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">Living in an
Nvidia stock market.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 7.0pt; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span><a href="https://www.wsj.com/finance/investing/nvidia-stock-market-f254a7ac?st=zby6syfh54rpmnu&reflink=desktopwebshare_permalink">https://www.wsj.com/finance/investing/nvidia-stock-market-f254a7ac?st=zby6syfh54rpmnu&reflink=desktopwebshare_permalink</a><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span></i></b><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">February equity
performance review.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span></span><span style="font-size: 8.0pt; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><a href="https://www.bespokepremium.com/interactive/posts/think-big-blog/a-5-february-what-worked-and-what-didnt">https://www.bespokepremium.com/interactive/posts/think-big-blog/a-5-february-what-worked-and-what-didnt</a></span><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="font-size: 8.0pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span></i></b><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">Crypto skeptic.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span><a href="https://www.ft.com/content/4de4c6b7-6335-4953-a81b-927499ba0bbb">https://www.ft.com/content/4de4c6b7-6335-4953-a81b-927499ba0bbb</a><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>News on Stocks in Our Portfolios</i></b><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><u><span style="font-size: 16.0pt;">What
I am reading today</span></u></i></b><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>The
rise of the financial dopamine culture.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span><a href="https://portfoliocharts.com/2024/02/27/the-rise-of-financial-dopamine-culture/">https://portfoliocharts.com/2024/02/27/the-rise-of-financial-dopamine-culture/</a><o:p></o:p></p>
<div style="border-bottom: dotted windowtext 3.0pt; border: none; mso-element: para-border-div; padding: 0in 0in 1.0pt 0in;">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="border: none; mso-border-bottom-alt: dotted windowtext 3.0pt; mso-padding-alt: 0in 0in 1.0pt 0in; padding: 0in; text-align: justify;"><o:p> </o:p></p>
</div>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-top: 12.0pt; text-align: justify;">Visit Investing
for Survival’s website (<a href="http://investingforsurvival.com/home">http://investingforsurvival.com/home</a>)
to learn more about our Investment Strategy, Prices Disciplines and Subscriber
Service.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-top: 12.0pt; text-align: justify;"><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-top: 12.0pt; text-align: justify;"><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-top: 12.0pt; text-align: justify;"><o:p> </o:p></p>Steven J Cookhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15993653615335271862noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4670837083672737109.post-90036332926952705502024-03-01T06:23:00.000-08:002024-03-01T06:31:58.831-08:00The Morning Call---BofA says S&P is egregiously expensive (but was just kidding)<p> </p><div style="border-bottom: dotted windowtext 3.0pt; border: none; mso-element: para-border-div; padding: 0in 0in 1.0pt 0in;">
<p align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="border: none; mso-border-bottom-alt: dotted windowtext 3.0pt; mso-padding-alt: 0in 0in 1.0pt 0in; padding: 0in; text-align: center;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="font-size: 24.0pt;">The Morning Call<o:p></o:p></span></i></b></p>
</div>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;">3/1/24<o:p></o:p></p>
<p align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;"><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><u><span style="font-size: 16.0pt;">The
Market</span></u></i></b><span style="font-size: 16.0pt; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><u>Technical</u></i></b></span><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span></i></b><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">Thursday in the
charts.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span></span><span style="font-size: 9.0pt; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><a href="https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/leap-faith-feb-favored-bitcoin-bulls-bond-bears-anti-obesity-advocates">https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/leap-faith-feb-favored-bitcoin-bulls-bond-bears-anti-obesity-advocates</a><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span></i></b><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">The risk-on
momentum prevails.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span></span><span style="font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/risk-on-momentum-prevails-as-february-winds-down/">https://www.capitalspectator.com/risk-on-momentum-prevails-as-february-winds-down/</a><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span></i></b><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">Investors finding
it pointless to be bearish.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span></span><span style="font-size: 10.0pt; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><a href="https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/investors-finding-it-increasingly-pointless-be-bearish">https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/investors-finding-it-increasingly-pointless-be-bearish</a><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></i></b><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><u><span style="font-size: 14.0pt;">Fundamental</span></u></i></b><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Headlines</i></b><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="tab-stops: 41.95pt; text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>The
Economy</i></b><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="tab-stops: 41.95pt; text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="tab-stops: 41.95pt; text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>US</i></b><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 2;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></i></b><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">January pending home sales declined 4.9%
versus consensus of up 1.0%.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 2;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span><span style="font-size: 8.0pt; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><a href="https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2024/02/29/pending-home-sales-fall-january-2024">https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2024/02/29/pending-home-sales-fall-january-2024</a><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 8.0pt; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 2;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The February Chicago PMI came in at 44 versus
projections of 48.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 2;"> </span></i></b><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span><span style="font-size: 7.0pt; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><a href="https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2024/02/29/chicago-pmi-falls-for-3rd-straight-month-in-february">https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2024/02/29/chicago-pmi-falls-for-3rd-straight-month-in-february</a><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="font-size: 7.0pt;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 78.0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">The February
Kansas City Fed manufacturing index came in at +3 versus estimates of -2.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="font-size: 7.0pt;"><o:p> </o:p></span></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>International</i></b><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 78.0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">The January
Japanese unemployment rate was 2.4%, in line; the February manufacturing PMI
was 47.2, also in line; February consumer confidence was 39.1 versus 38.3.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 78.0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 78.0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">The January EU
unemployment rate was 6.4%, in line; the February manufacturing PMI was 42.5
versus 42.3; February CPI was +0.6% versus +0.5%.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 78.0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 78.0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">The February
Chinese manufacturing PMI was 49.1, in line; the February nonmanufacturing PMI
was 51.4 versus 50.8; the February composite PMI was 50.9 versus 50.6; the
February Caixin (small manufacturers) manufacturing PMI was 50.9 versus 50.6.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 78.0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 78.0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">The February
German manufacturing PMI was 42.5 versus predictions of 42.3.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 78.0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>Other</i></b><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 2;"> </span></i></b><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The benefits of free trade.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 2;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span><span style="font-size: 10.0pt; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><a href="https://www.adamsmith.org/blog/really-not-quite-grasping-the-economic-basics-here">https://www.adamsmith.org/blog/really-not-quite-grasping-the-economic-basics-here</a><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 2;"> </span></i></b><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Employment in right-to-work states versus non
right-to-work states.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 2;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span><span style="font-size: 8.0pt; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><a href="https://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2024/02/the-daily-chart-another-red-blue-dividing-line.php">https://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2024/02/the-daily-chart-another-red-blue-dividing-line.php</a><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>The
Fed<o:p></o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></i></b><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">The ECB and QT.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span><span style="font-size: 6.0pt; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><a href="https://wolfstreet.com/2024/02/28/ecb-balance-sheet-qt-down-e2-0-trillion-from-peak-to-e6-83-trillion-the-ecb-shed-48-of-its-pandemic-qe-assets/">https://wolfstreet.com/2024/02/28/ecb-balance-sheet-qt-down-e2-0-trillion-from-peak-to-e6-83-trillion-the-ecb-shed-48-of-its-pandemic-qe-assets/</a><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 42.0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">Fed officials
continue to emphasize ‘data dependent.’<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>And
right now, they can afford to be circumspect about this policy because the Markets
are cutting the Fed lots of slack, i.e., pushing equity prices higher as the
number of potential rate cuts shrinks. And investors may continue to do through
the whole ‘higher for longer’ strategy. However, history says that the Fed will
ease in the face of a down market irrespective of the economic backdrop.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 42.0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 6.0pt; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-02-28/fed-officials-emphasize-data-to-guide-pace-of-interest-rate-cuts?srnd=homepage-americas&embedded-checkout=true&sref=loFkkPMQ">https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-02-28/fed-officials-emphasize-data-to-guide-pace-of-interest-rate-cuts?srnd=homepage-americas&embedded-checkout=true&sref=loFkkPMQ</a><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>Inflation<o:p></o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Does gold’s low volatility suggest a rise in inflation?<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><a href="https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/low-volatility-gold-calm-inflation-storm">https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/low-volatility-gold-calm-inflation-storm</a><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span></i></b><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Is inflation starting to reappear in Europe?<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span><span style="font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><a href="https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/ecb-rate-cuts-jeopardy-disinflation-grinds-halt">https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/ecb-rate-cuts-jeopardy-disinflation-grinds-halt</a><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>Recession<o:p></o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></i></b><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">Still no recession.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><a href="https://econbrowser.com/archives/2024/02/gdp-estd-gdo-gdp">https://econbrowser.com/archives/2024/02/gdp-estd-gdo-gdp</a><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></i></b><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">Update on big four recession indicators.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 7.0pt; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><a href="https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2024/02/29/personal-income-economic-indicators-rises-january-2024">https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2024/02/29/personal-income-economic-indicators-rises-january-2024</a><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span></i></b><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Real disposable income per capita.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span><span style="font-size: 8.0pt; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><a href="https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2024/02/29/real-disposable-income-per-capita-down-january-2024">https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2024/02/29/real-disposable-income-per-capita-down-january-2024</a><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>The
Financial System<o:p></o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></i></b><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">The pros of the ballooning shadow banking
system.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><a href="https://www.ft.com/content/ceeaa74c-b03c-481c-ba15-96f233456ab8">https://www.ft.com/content/ceeaa74c-b03c-481c-ba15-96f233456ab8</a><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>Geopolitics<o:p></o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 42.0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">These guys are
dangerous. Even if Russia conquered all of Ukraine, why would Russia be at war
with NATO? Ukraine has no mutual defense pact with NATO.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span></i></b><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span><span style="font-size: 9.0pt; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><a href="https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/pentagon-chief-if-ukraine-defeated-war-nato-will-be-war-russia">https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/pentagon-chief-if-ukraine-defeated-war-nato-will-be-war-russia</a><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 9.0pt; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Bottom line<o:p></o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span></i></b><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">BofA: the S&P
is egregiously expensive.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span></span><span style="font-size: 8.0pt; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><a href="https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/sp-egregiously-expensive-bofa-finds-market-overvalued-20-out-20-metrics">https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/sp-egregiously-expensive-bofa-finds-market-overvalued-20-out-20-metrics</a><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span></i></b><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">The ‘dumb money’
is almost back to even.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span></span><span style="font-size: 10.0pt; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><a href="https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/dumb-money-almost-back-even-making-same-mistakes">https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/dumb-money-almost-back-even-making-same-mistakes</a><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span></i></b><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">How to use gold in
your portfolio.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span><a href="https://www.morningstar.com/portfolios/how-use-gold-your-portfolio">https://www.morningstar.com/portfolios/how-use-gold-your-portfolio</a><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>Market
herding is everywhere, not just in US.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: .5in; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 6.0pt; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2024-02-29/market-concentration-how-to-get-away-from-the-magnificent-seven?srnd=homepage-americas&embedded-checkout=true&sref=loFkkPMQ">https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2024-02-29/market-concentration-how-to-get-away-from-the-magnificent-seven?srnd=homepage-americas&embedded-checkout=true&sref=loFkkPMQ</a><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 6.0pt; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>News on Stocks in Our Portfolios</i></b><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span><o:p></o:p></p>
<div style="background: white; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; margin-left: .5in; margin-right: 0in; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .25pt; mso-element: para-border-div; padding: 0in 0in 0in 25.0pt;">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; border: none; margin-bottom: 15.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .25pt; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-padding-alt: 0in 0in 0in 25.0pt; padding: 0in;"><span style="color: black;">Altria (<span class="ticker-hover-wrapper"><span style="border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .25pt; padding: 0in;"><span style="--tw-border-spacing-x: 0; --tw-border-spacing-y: 0; --tw-ring-color: #3b82f680; --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; --tw-scale-x: 1; --tw-scale-y: 1; --tw-scroll-snap-strictness: proximity; --tw-shadow-colored: 0 0 #0000; --tw-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-skew-x: 0; --tw-skew-y: 0; --tw-translate-x: 0; --tw-translate-y: 0; box-sizing: border-box;">NYSE:<a href="https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/MO?hasComeFromMpArticle=false&source=content_type%253Areact%257Csection%253Amain_content%257Cbutton%253Abody_link%257Cfirst_level_url%253Anews" style="--tw-border-spacing-x: 0; --tw-border-spacing-y: 0; --tw-ring-color: #3b82f680; --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; --tw-scale-x: 1; --tw-scale-y: 1; --tw-scroll-snap-strictness: proximity; --tw-shadow-colored: 0 0 #0000; --tw-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-skew-x: 0; --tw-skew-y: 0; --tw-translate-x: 0; --tw-translate-y: 0; background-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0); box-sizing: border-box; color: var(--sa-link-color);" title="Altria Group, Inc."><span style="text-decoration: none; text-underline: none;">MO</span></a></span></span></span>) declares <a href="https://seekingalpha.com/pr/19640083-altria-declares-regular-quarterly-dividend-of-0_98-per-share?hasComeFromMpArticle=false&source=content_type%253Areact%257Csection%253Amain_content%257Cbutton%253Abody_link%257Cfirst_level_url%253Anews" style="--tw-border-spacing-x: 0; --tw-border-spacing-y: 0; --tw-ring-color: #3b82f680; --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; --tw-scale-x: 1; --tw-scale-y: 1; --tw-scroll-snap-strictness: proximity; --tw-shadow-colored: 0 0 #0000; --tw-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-skew-x: 0; --tw-skew-y: 0; --tw-translate-x: 0; --tw-translate-y: 0; background-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0); box-sizing: border-box; color: var(--sa-link-color);" target="_blank"><span style="border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .25pt; padding: 0in; text-decoration: none; text-underline: none;">$0.98/share quarterly dividend</span></a>, in line with
previous.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</div>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><u><span style="font-size: 16.0pt;">What
I am reading today</span></u></i></b><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>The
wild west of NBA jump balls.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span><span style="font-size: 10.0pt;"><a href="https://www.theringer.com/nba/2024/2/21/24074472/jump-ball-rules-strategy-chicanery-history">https://www.theringer.com/nba/2024/2/21/24074472/jump-ball-rules-strategy-chicanery-history</a><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 6.0pt;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<div style="border-bottom: dotted windowtext 3.0pt; border: none; mso-element: para-border-div; padding: 0in 0in 1.0pt 0in;">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="border: none; mso-border-bottom-alt: dotted windowtext 3.0pt; mso-padding-alt: 0in 0in 1.0pt 0in; padding: 0in; text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>On Hayek’s Road to Serfdom.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="border: none; mso-border-bottom-alt: dotted windowtext 3.0pt; mso-padding-alt: 0in 0in 1.0pt 0in; padding: 0in; text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span><a href="https://lawliberty.org/still-trudging-towards-serfdom/">https://lawliberty.org/still-trudging-towards-serfdom/</a><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="border: none; mso-border-bottom-alt: dotted windowtext 3.0pt; mso-padding-alt: 0in 0in 1.0pt 0in; padding: 0in; text-align: justify;"><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="border: none; mso-border-bottom-alt: dotted windowtext 3.0pt; mso-padding-alt: 0in 0in 1.0pt 0in; padding: 0in; text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>Friday morning humor.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="border: none; mso-border-bottom-alt: dotted windowtext 3.0pt; mso-padding-alt: 0in 0in 1.0pt 0in; padding: 0in; text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span><a href="https://babylonbee.com/news/9-surprising-findings-from-joe-bidens-physical">https://babylonbee.com/news/9-surprising-findings-from-joe-bidens-physical</a><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="border: none; mso-border-bottom-alt: dotted windowtext 3.0pt; mso-padding-alt: 0in 0in 1.0pt 0in; padding: 0in; text-align: justify;"><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="border: none; mso-border-bottom-alt: dotted windowtext 3.0pt; mso-padding-alt: 0in 0in 1.0pt 0in; padding: 0in; text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>Beware of Google’s new AI product,
Gemini.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="border: none; mso-border-bottom-alt: dotted windowtext 3.0pt; mso-padding-alt: 0in 0in 1.0pt 0in; padding: 0in; text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span><span style="font-size: 9.0pt;"><a href="https://www.zerohedge.com/political/i-wrote-what-matt-taibbi-unloads-googles-ai-powered-libel-machine">https://www.zerohedge.com/political/i-wrote-what-matt-taibbi-unloads-googles-ai-powered-libel-machine</a><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="border: none; mso-border-bottom-alt: dotted windowtext 3.0pt; mso-padding-alt: 0in 0in 1.0pt 0in; padding: 0in; text-align: justify;"><o:p> </o:p></p>
</div>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-top: 12.0pt; text-align: justify;">Visit Investing
for Survival’s website (<a href="http://investingforsurvival.com/home">http://investingforsurvival.com/home</a>)
to learn more about our Investment Strategy, Prices Disciplines and Subscriber
Service.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-top: 12.0pt; text-align: justify;"><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-top: 12.0pt; text-align: justify;"><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-top: 12.0pt; text-align: justify;"><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-top: 12.0pt; text-align: justify;"><o:p> </o:p></p>Steven J Cookhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15993653615335271862noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4670837083672737109.post-69369490813979698552024-02-29T06:13:00.000-08:002024-02-29T06:13:30.781-08:00The Morning Call---No asset class is remotely ready for inflation.<p> </p><div style="border-bottom: dotted windowtext 3.0pt; border: none; mso-element: para-border-div; padding: 0in 0in 1.0pt 0in;">
<p align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="border: none; mso-border-bottom-alt: dotted windowtext 3.0pt; mso-padding-alt: 0in 0in 1.0pt 0in; padding: 0in; text-align: center;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="font-size: 24.0pt;">The Morning Call<o:p></o:p></span></i></b></p>
</div>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;">2/29/24<o:p></o:p></p>
<p align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;"><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;"><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><u><span style="font-size: 16.0pt;">The
Market</span></u></i></b><span style="font-size: 16.0pt; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><u>Technical</u></i></b></span><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span></i></b><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">Wednesday in the
charts.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span></span><span style="font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><a href="https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/stocks-slip-crypto-rips-dips-record-etf-volumes">https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/stocks-slip-crypto-rips-dips-record-etf-volumes</a><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> <span> </span><span> </span></o:p></i></b>Note: the S&P
again managed to stay above the upper boundary of that wedge formation---by <span> </span><span> </span><span> </span><span> </span>the
barest of margins. Still that has to be taken as a positive. That said,
investors are clearly <span> </span><span> </span>trying to figure out just how positive to be. This is not
a time to be committing funds.</p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: .5in; text-align: justify;"><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b><i> </i></b></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p><span> </span><br /></o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span></i></b><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">Goldman Sachs’
funds flow guru warns equities have entered a period of euphoria.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span></span><span style="font-size: 7.0pt; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><a href="https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/return-yolo-was-not-my-bingo-card-feb-goldman-flows-guru-warns-us-equities-have-entered">https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/return-yolo-was-not-my-bingo-card-feb-goldman-flows-guru-warns-us-equities-have-entered</a><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></i></b><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><u><span style="font-size: 14.0pt;">Fundamental</span></u></i></b><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Headlines</i></b><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="tab-stops: 41.95pt; text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>The
Economy</i></b><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="tab-stops: 41.95pt; text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="tab-stops: 41.95pt; text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>US</i></b><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 78.0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">Weekly initial
jobless claims totaled 215,000 versus predictions of 210,000.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 78.0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">January personal income
was up 1.0% versus estimates of +0.4%; personal spending was up 0.2%, in line.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 78.0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 78.0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">January PCE was up
0.3%, in line; core PCE was up 0.4%, also in line.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>International</i></b><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 2;"> </span><o:p></o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 1.0in; text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>January Japanese industrial production fell
7.5% versus expectations of <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>down 7.3%;
January retail sales were up 0.8% versus 0.6%; January YoY housing starts were
down 7.5% versus -7.7%; January YoY construction orders was up 9.1% versus
+4.0%.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 1.0in; text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 1.0in; text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">January German
retail sales declined 0.4% versus forecasts of +0.5%; the February unemployment
rate was 5.9% versus 5.8%; the February preliminary CPI was up 0.4% versus
+0.5%.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>Other</i></b><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>The
Fed<o:p></o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span></i></b><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Steve Forbes thinks that the Fed should lower
rates at its next meeting.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span><span style="font-size: 9.0pt; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wM91ujDE3dY&list=PLpndQ-APwbNXDxxBubkkkDQrTaJXt_ix0">https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wM91ujDE3dY&list=PLpndQ-APwbNXDxxBubkkkDQrTaJXt_ix0</a><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>Fiscal
Policy<o:p></o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span></i></b><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>(2<sup>nd</sup> est.) Q4 GDP was up $334
billion while government debt was up $834 billion.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span><span style="font-size: 10.0pt; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><a href="https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/us-gdp-grew-334-billion-q4-growth-cost-834-billion-debt">https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/us-gdp-grew-334-billion-q4-growth-cost-834-billion-debt</a><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>Inflation<o:p></o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span></i></b><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>How we measure inflation is all wrong.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><a href="https://www.cato.org/blog/we-are-still-measuring-inflation-all-wrong-2">https://www.cato.org/blog/we-are-still-measuring-inflation-all-wrong-2</a><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span></i></b><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span></i><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">The market capitalization of the new home
market fell in January.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span><span style="font-size: 9.0pt; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><a href="https://politicalcalculations.blogspot.com/2024/02/market-cap-of-us-new-homes-decreases-to.html">https://politicalcalculations.blogspot.com/2024/02/market-cap-of-us-new-homes-decreases-to.html</a><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span></i></b><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>More data on home prices.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: .5in; text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span><span style="font-size: 6.0pt; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><a href="https://wolfstreet.com/2024/02/27/the-most-splendid-housing-bubbles-in-america-feb-2024-update-20-city-index-drops-for-2nd-month-from-double-top-biggest-price-drops-from-2022-peak-san-francisco-seattle-portland-denver-phoenix/">https://wolfstreet.com/2024/02/27/the-most-splendid-housing-bubbles-in-america-feb-2024-update-20-city-index-drops-for-2nd-month-from-double-top-biggest-price-drops-from-2022-peak-san-francisco-seattle-portland-denver-phoenix/</a><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 6.0pt; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 6.0pt; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Recession<o:p></o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></i></b><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">The latest Q1 GDP growth nowcast.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span></span><span style="font-size: 10.0pt; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/us-recession-risk-stays-low-with-moderate-q1-growth-nowcast/">https://www.capitalspectator.com/us-recession-risk-stays-low-with-moderate-q1-growth-nowcast/</a><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 10.0pt; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 10.0pt; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span></span><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Government Shutdown<o:p></o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></i></b><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">Congressional leaders announce deal to avert
shutdown.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span><span style="font-size: 9.0pt; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><a href="https://www.zerohedge.com/political/heres-what-will-be-affected-during-impending-government-shutdown">https://www.zerohedge.com/political/heres-what-will-be-affected-during-impending-government-shutdown</a><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 10.0pt; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 10.0pt; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">The Financial System<o:p></o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></i></b><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">Flawed valuation threatens $1.7 trillion
private credit boom.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: .5in; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 6.0pt; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-02-28/how-private-credit-market-boom-is-hiding-potential-valuation-problems?srnd=homepage-americas&embedded-checkout=true&sref=loFkkPMQ">https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-02-28/how-private-credit-market-boom-is-hiding-potential-valuation-problems?srnd=homepage-americas&embedded-checkout=true&sref=loFkkPMQ</a><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 6.0pt; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Pension plan sells Manhattan office tower for
$1.00.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span><span style="font-size: 8.0pt; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><a href="https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/who-could-be-next-largest-canadian-pension-fund-sells-manhattan-office-tower-1">https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/who-could-be-next-largest-canadian-pension-fund-sells-manhattan-office-tower-1</a><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 10.0pt; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span></span><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Civil Strife<o:p></o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></i></b><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">The government and CBS.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><a href="https://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2024/02/cbs-gov-con.php">https://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2024/02/cbs-gov-con.php</a><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 42.0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">Hey, wait a minute.
What is good for the goose should be good for the gander: FBI wants reporter to
surrender over January 6<sup>th</sup> reporting.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 42.0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 6.0pt; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><a href="https://www.theblaze.com/news/blaze-news-investigative-writer-steve-baker-says-fbi-wants-him-to-self-surrender-friday-in-dallas-over-his-jan-6-reporting">https://www.theblaze.com/news/blaze-news-investigative-writer-steve-baker-says-fbi-wants-him-to-self-surrender-friday-in-dallas-over-his-jan-6-reporting</a><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 6.0pt; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Bottom line<o:p></o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span></i></b><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>No asset class is remotely ready for
inflation.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span><span style="font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><a href="https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/no-asset-class-remotely-ready-more-inflation">https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/no-asset-class-remotely-ready-more-inflation</a><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span></i></b><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">The downside to
trading.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span><a href="https://newsletter.rationalwalk.com/p/too-clever-by-half">https://newsletter.rationalwalk.com/p/too-clever-by-half</a><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>News on Stocks in Our Portfolios</i></b><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><u><span style="font-size: 16.0pt;">What
I am reading today</span></u></i></b><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>Leaked
Russian files outline criteria for nuclear strike.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span><a href="https://www.ft.com/content/f18e6e1f-5c3d-4554-aee5-50a730b306b7">https://www.ft.com/content/f18e6e1f-5c3d-4554-aee5-50a730b306b7</a><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 6.0pt;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 6.0pt;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span></span>Quote of the day.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span><a href="https://cafehayek.com/2024/02/quotation-of-the-day-4559.html">https://cafehayek.com/2024/02/quotation-of-the-day-4559.html</a><o:p></o:p></p>
<div style="border-bottom: dotted windowtext 3.0pt; border: none; mso-element: para-border-div; padding: 0in 0in 1.0pt 0in;">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="border: none; mso-border-bottom-alt: dotted windowtext 3.0pt; mso-padding-alt: 0in 0in 1.0pt 0in; padding: 0in; text-align: justify;"><o:p> </o:p></p>
</div>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-top: 12.0pt; text-align: justify;">Visit Investing
for Survival’s website (<a href="http://investingforsurvival.com/home">http://investingforsurvival.com/home</a>)
to learn more about our Investment Strategy, Prices Disciplines and Subscriber
Service.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-top: 12.0pt; text-align: justify;"><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-top: 12.0pt; text-align: justify;"><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-top: 12.0pt; text-align: justify;"><o:p> </o:p></p>Steven J Cookhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15993653615335271862noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4670837083672737109.post-395125147321363832024-02-28T05:59:00.000-08:002024-02-28T05:59:16.926-08:00The Morning Call---The Fed and fiscal policy assure the dollar's decline<p> </p><div style="border-bottom: dotted windowtext 3.0pt; border: none; mso-element: para-border-div; padding: 0in 0in 1.0pt 0in;">
<p align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="border: none; mso-border-bottom-alt: dotted windowtext 3.0pt; mso-padding-alt: 0in 0in 1.0pt 0in; padding: 0in; text-align: center;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="font-size: 24.0pt;">The Morning Call<o:p></o:p></span></i></b></p>
</div>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;">2/28/24<o:p></o:p></p>
<p align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;"><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;"><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><u><span style="font-size: 16.0pt;">The
Market</span></u></i></b><span style="font-size: 16.0pt; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><u>Technical</u></i></b></span><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span></i></b><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">Tuesday in the
charts.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span></span><span style="font-size: 10.0pt; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><a href="https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/big-shorts-bitcoin-black-gold-bid-yield-curve-bear-steepens">https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/big-shorts-bitcoin-black-gold-bid-yield-curve-bear-steepens</a><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 10.0pt; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: .5in; text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">Note: the S&P
held above the upper boundary of that wedge formation---by the hair on its chinny,
chinny chin. Await follow through.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span></i></b><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">The tech wreck
continues.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span><a href="https://allstarcharts.com/the-tech-wreck-continues/">https://allstarcharts.com/the-tech-wreck-continues/</a><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span></i></b><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">A sell signal?<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span></span><span style="font-size: 9.0pt; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><a href="https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/deja-vu-very-similar-set-last-summers-perfect-sell-signal">https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/deja-vu-very-similar-set-last-summers-perfect-sell-signal</a><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span></i></b><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">The Fed and fiscal
policy assure the dollar’s decline.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span></span><span style="font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><a href="https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/fed-and-treasury-ensure-dollar-downside-ahead">https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/fed-and-treasury-ensure-dollar-downside-ahead</a><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></i></b><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><u><span style="font-size: 14.0pt;">Fundamental</span></u></i></b><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Headlines</i></b><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="tab-stops: 41.95pt; text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>The
Economy</i></b><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="tab-stops: 41.95pt; text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="tab-stops: 41.95pt; text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>US</i></b><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 78.0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">Weekly mortgage
applications were down 5.6% while purchase applications were down 5.0%.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 78.0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">Month to date retail
chain store sales grew at a slower pace than in the previous week.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 78.0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 78.0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">The December Case
Shiller home price index fell 0.3% versus consensus of -0.1%.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 78.0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 6.0pt; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><a href="https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2024/02/27/sp-case-shiller-home-price-index-upward-trend-decelerates-december-2023">https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2024/02/27/sp-case-shiller-home-price-index-upward-trend-decelerates-december-2023</a><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 78.0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 6.0pt; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 78.0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 6.0pt; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 78.0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">The second
estimate of Q4 GDP growth was 3.2% versus predictions of 3.3%; the second
estimate Q4 PCE was 1.8% versus 1.7%; the second estimate of real consumer
spending was 3.0% versus 2.8%.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 78.0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 6.0pt; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 78.0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">The February Richmond
Fed manufacturing index came in at -5 versus projections of +3.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 78.0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 7.0pt; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><a href="https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2024/02/27/richmond-fed-manufacturing-activity-flat-february-2024">https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2024/02/27/richmond-fed-manufacturing-activity-flat-february-2024</a><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 78.0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 7.0pt; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 78.0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">The February consumer
confidence index was 106.7 versus estimates of 115.0.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 2;"> </span></i></b><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span><span style="font-size: 8.0pt; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><a href="https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2024/02/27/consumer-confidence-retreats-in-february">https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2024/02/27/consumer-confidence-retreats-in-february</a><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 8.0pt; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>International</i></b><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 81.0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">The December Japanese
leading economic indicators were reported at 110.2 versus expectations of
110.0.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 81.0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 81.0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">The February EU economic
sentiment index was 95.4 versus forecast of 96.7; the industrial sentiment
index was -9.5, in line; the services sentiment index was 6 versus 9; the
consumer confidence index was -15.5, in line.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>Other</i></b><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>Recession<o:p></o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></i></b><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">Real wage growth thru January 2024.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><a href="https://econbrowser.com/archives/2024/02/real-wage-growth-thru-january-2024">https://econbrowser.com/archives/2024/02/real-wage-growth-thru-january-2024</a><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span></i></b><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Will the US economy drive global growth this
year?<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: .5in; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 6.0pt; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><a href="https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/us-economy-soft-landing-likely-but-not-certain-by-mohamed-a-el-erian-2024-02?utm_source=project-syndicate.org&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=authnote">https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/us-economy-soft-landing-likely-but-not-certain-by-mohamed-a-el-erian-2024-02?utm_source=project-syndicate.org&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=authnote</a><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 6.0pt; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 6.0pt; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span></span><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Government Shutdown<o:p></o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span></i></b><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>House conservatives’ demands stall efforts to
avoid March 1<sup>st</sup> shutdown.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span><span style="font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><a href="https://thehill.com/homenews/house/4490368-house-conservative-demands-shutdown/">https://thehill.com/homenews/house/4490368-house-conservative-demands-shutdown/</a><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></i></b><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">But April 1<sup>st</sup> may be more critical.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: .5in; text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span><span style="font-size: 6.0pt; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><a href="https://finance.yahoo.com/news/lawmakers-hope-to-avoid-a-march-1-shutdown-an-april-30-deadline-may-be-more-critical-090012917.html?guccounter=1&guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuY2FwaXRhbHNwZWN0YXRvci5jb20v&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAAC1V8-m267svNrXbZ6ee2E6mQkGyrA4Q7dojYgQqnrqHO9YDLkSWNf-ah_BeStyoYy33b2EFYs6k_makDGOBihGtkISncoGbfaW7bMKDTOgbu1ocoWa-qnxp4sxIwERT1BYdrk6psN6yhaDfNunalirEL1l7JTt1qYhqj7QmkA4v">https://finance.yahoo.com/news/lawmakers-hope-to-avoid-a-march-1-shutdown-an-april-30-deadline-may-be-more-critical-090012917.html?guccounter=1&guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuY2FwaXRhbHNwZWN0YXRvci5jb20v&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAAC1V8-m267svNrXbZ6ee2E6mQkGyrA4Q7dojYgQqnrqHO9YDLkSWNf-ah_BeStyoYy33b2EFYs6k_makDGOBihGtkISncoGbfaW7bMKDTOgbu1ocoWa-qnxp4sxIwERT1BYdrk6psN6yhaDfNunalirEL1l7JTt1qYhqj7QmkA4v</a><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 6.0pt; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Bottom line<o:p></o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span></i></b><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">A bull market may
just be getting started.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span></span><span style="font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><a href="https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/stock-bull-market-might-just-be-getting-started">https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/stock-bull-market-might-just-be-getting-started</a><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span></i></b><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">When to take
profits?<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span></span><span style="font-size: 10.0pt; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><a href="https://alhambrapartners.com/2024/02/25/weekly-market-pulse-artificial-intelligence/?src=news">https://alhambrapartners.com/2024/02/25/weekly-market-pulse-artificial-intelligence/?src=news</a><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span></i></b><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">Companies looking
to equity to finance growth as interest rates rise.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: .5in; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 6.0pt; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-02-27/reddit-campari-aston-martin-turn-to-equity-markets-for-much-needed-cash?srnd=phoenix-americas&embedded-checkout=true&sref=loFkkPMQ">https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-02-27/reddit-campari-aston-martin-turn-to-equity-markets-for-much-needed-cash?srnd=phoenix-americas&embedded-checkout=true&sref=loFkkPMQ</a><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 6.0pt; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>News on Stocks in Our Portfolios</i></b><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><u><span style="font-size: 16.0pt;">What
I am reading today</span></u></i></b><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span><span style="font-size: 6.0pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 6.0pt;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<div style="border-bottom: dotted windowtext 3.0pt; border: none; mso-element: para-border-div; padding: 0in 0in 1.0pt 0in;">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="border: none; mso-border-bottom-alt: dotted windowtext 3.0pt; mso-padding-alt: 0in 0in 1.0pt 0in; padding: 0in; text-align: justify;"><o:p> </o:p></p>
</div>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-top: 12.0pt; text-align: justify;">Visit Investing
for Survival’s website (<a href="http://investingforsurvival.com/home">http://investingforsurvival.com/home</a>)
to learn more about our Investment Strategy, Prices Disciplines and Subscriber
Service.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-top: 12.0pt; text-align: justify;"><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-top: 12.0pt; text-align: justify;"><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-top: 12.0pt; text-align: justify;"><o:p> </o:p></p>Steven J Cookhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15993653615335271862noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4670837083672737109.post-52726427973373123352024-02-27T06:13:00.000-08:002024-02-27T06:13:49.358-08:00The Morning Call--What happens if we get some actual bad news?<p> </p><div style="border-bottom: dotted windowtext 3.0pt; border: none; mso-element: para-border-div; padding: 0in 0in 1.0pt 0in;">
<p align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="border: none; mso-border-bottom-alt: dotted windowtext 3.0pt; mso-padding-alt: 0in 0in 1.0pt 0in; padding: 0in; text-align: center;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="font-size: 24.0pt;">The Morning Call<o:p></o:p></span></i></b></p>
</div>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;">2/27/24<o:p></o:p></p>
<p align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;"><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><u><span style="font-size: 16.0pt;">The
Market</span></u></i></b><span style="font-size: 16.0pt; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><u>Technical</u></i></b></span><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span></i></b><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">Monday in the
charts.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span></span><span style="font-size: 9.0pt; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><a href="https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/crypto-rips-mag7-dips-super-short-squeeze-sends-small-caps-soaring">https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/crypto-rips-mag7-dips-super-short-squeeze-sends-small-caps-soaring</a><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: .5in; text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">Note: yesterday, the
S&P confirmed its successful challenge of the upper boundary of its short
term uptrend---but just barely so, closing fractionally above that trend line. For
the moment, I am going to assume that the challenge has been successful. But a
close today below that boundary would reverse the call. Follow through.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span></i></b><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">Hedge funds
dumping tech stocks, retail buying.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span></span><span style="font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><a href="https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/hedge-funds-are-dumping-tech-stocks-retail-buying">https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/hedge-funds-are-dumping-tech-stocks-retail-buying</a><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span></i></b><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">Goldman positions
for momentum reversal.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span></span><span style="font-size: 8.0pt; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><a href="https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/momo-fomo-or-nomo-goldman-trader-shows-how-position-momentum-reversal">https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/momo-fomo-or-nomo-goldman-trader-shows-how-position-momentum-reversal</a><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></i></b><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><u><span style="font-size: 14.0pt;">Fundamental</span></u></i></b><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Headlines</i></b><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="tab-stops: 41.95pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span></span><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">The
Economy<o:p></o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="tab-stops: 41.95pt; text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="tab-stops: 41.95pt; text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>US<o:p></o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 78.0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">January new home
sales were up 1.5% versus expectations of +0.9%; building permits were down 0.3%
versus -1.5%.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 78.0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 8.0pt; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><a href="https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2024/02/26/new-home-sales-inch-up-january-2024">https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2024/02/26/new-home-sales-inch-up-january-2024</a><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 78.0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 8.0pt; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 78.0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">January durable
goods orders fell 6.1% versus forecasts of down 4.5%; ex transportation, they
were down 0.3% versus +0.2%.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 78.0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 8.0pt; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 78.0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">The February
Dallas Fed manufacturing index came in at -11.3 versus predictions of -8.0.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 2;"> </span></i></b><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span><span style="font-size: 6.0pt; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><a href="https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2024/02/26/dallas-fed-manufacturing-business-conditions-continue-to-worsen-in-february">https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2024/02/26/dallas-fed-manufacturing-business-conditions-continue-to-worsen-in-february</a><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>International</i></b><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 2;"> </span></i></b><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>January Japanese CPI came in at 0.0% versus
estimates of -0.1%.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 2;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The March German consumer confidence index
was -29, in line.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>The
Fed<o:p></o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></i></b><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">The Treasuries market is losing its shock
absorber.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span><span style="font-size: 7.0pt; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><a href="https://www.wsj.com/economy/central-banking/treasury-markets-are-losing-their-shock-absorber-75ed6ea1?mod=economy_lead_story">https://www.wsj.com/economy/central-banking/treasury-markets-are-losing-their-shock-absorber-75ed6ea1?mod=economy_lead_story</a><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span></i></b><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Soaring stock prices may slow interest rate
cuts.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span><span style="font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><a href="https://www.thestreet.com/investing/a-soaring-stock-market-may-delay-delay-rate-cuts">https://www.thestreet.com/investing/a-soaring-stock-market-may-delay-delay-rate-cuts</a><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></i></b><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">So should the data flow.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span><span style="font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/looking-ahead-to-us-economic-data-for-february/">https://www.capitalspectator.com/looking-ahead-to-us-economic-data-for-february/</a><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>Fiscal
Policy<o:p></o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></i></b><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">Spiraling public debt risks action by the bond
vigilantes.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><a href="https://www.ft.com/content/370e94f6-b6b3-4e8b-99e4-3a94c77276ee">https://www.ft.com/content/370e94f6-b6b3-4e8b-99e4-3a94c77276ee</a><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>Recession<o:p></o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></i></b><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">Cracks in consumption have started to appear.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span><span style="font-size: 9.0pt; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><a href="https://www.advisorperspectives.com/commentaries/2024/02/26/cracks-consumption-have-started-appear">https://www.advisorperspectives.com/commentaries/2024/02/26/cracks-consumption-have-started-appear</a><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>Geopolitics<o:p></o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></i></b><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">NATO freaking out over crumbling Ukraine
military.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span><span style="font-size: 6.0pt; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><a href="https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2024/02/nato-freakout-over-crumbling-ukraine-military-poland-threatens-us-with-nuclear-development-if-no-aid-package.html">https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2024/02/nato-freakout-over-crumbling-ukraine-military-poland-threatens-us-with-nuclear-development-if-no-aid-package.html</a><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Bottom line<o:p></o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span></i></b><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">A boom in reverse
stock splits.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: .5in; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 6.0pt; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><a href="https://wolfstreet.com/2024/02/23/this-stuff-is-just-funny-we-have-a-boom-in-mega-reverse-stock-splits-to-keep-the-ballooning-number-of-imploded-stocks-listed-a-while-longer/">https://wolfstreet.com/2024/02/23/this-stuff-is-just-funny-we-have-a-boom-in-mega-reverse-stock-splits-to-keep-the-ballooning-number-of-imploded-stocks-listed-a-while-longer/</a><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="font-size: 6.0pt;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span></i></b><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">What happens if we
get some actual bad news?<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span><a href="https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/stock-rally-driven-less-hopeful-start-year">https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/stock-rally-driven-less-hopeful-start-year</a><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>News on Stocks in Our Portfolios</i></b><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span><o:p></o:p></p>
<div style="background: white; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; margin-left: .5in; margin-right: 0in; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .25pt; mso-element: para-border-div; padding: 0in 0in 0in 25.0pt;">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; border: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .25pt; mso-padding-alt: 0in 0in 0in 25.0pt; padding: 0in;"><span style="color: black; font-family: Roboto;">Bank of Nova Scotia <a href="https://seekingalpha.com/pr/19634892-scotiabank-reports-first-quarter-results?hasComeFromMpArticle=false&source=content_type%253Areact%257Csection%253Amain_content%257Cbutton%253Abody_link%257Cfirst_level_url%253Anews" style="--tw-border-spacing-x: 0; --tw-border-spacing-y: 0; --tw-ring-color: #3b82f680; --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; --tw-scale-x: 1; --tw-scale-y: 1; --tw-scroll-snap-strictness: proximity; --tw-shadow-colored: 0 0 #0000; --tw-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-skew-x: 0; --tw-skew-y: 0; --tw-translate-x: 0; --tw-translate-y: 0; background-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0); box-sizing: border-box; color: var(--sa-link-color);"><span style="border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .25pt; padding: 0in;">press release</span></a> (<span class="ticker-hover-wrapper"><span style="border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .25pt; padding: 0in;"><span style="--tw-border-spacing-x: 0; --tw-border-spacing-y: 0; --tw-ring-color: #3b82f680; --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; --tw-scale-x: 1; --tw-scale-y: 1; --tw-scroll-snap-strictness: proximity; --tw-shadow-colored: 0 0 #0000; --tw-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-skew-x: 0; --tw-skew-y: 0; --tw-translate-x: 0; --tw-translate-y: 0; box-sizing: border-box;">NYSE:<a href="https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/BNS?hasComeFromMpArticle=false&source=content_type%253Areact%257Csection%253Amain_content%257Cbutton%253Abody_link%257Cfirst_level_url%253Anews" style="--tw-border-spacing-x: 0; --tw-border-spacing-y: 0; --tw-ring-color: #3b82f680; --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; --tw-scale-x: 1; --tw-scale-y: 1; --tw-scroll-snap-strictness: proximity; --tw-shadow-colored: 0 0 #0000; --tw-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-skew-x: 0; --tw-skew-y: 0; --tw-translate-x: 0; --tw-translate-y: 0; background-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0); box-sizing: border-box; color: var(--sa-link-color);" title="The Bank of Nova Scotia">BNS</a></span></span></span>): Q1 Non-GAAP EPS of
C$1.69.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; border: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .25pt; mso-padding-alt: 0in 0in 0in 25.0pt; padding: 0in;"><span style="color: black; font-family: Roboto;">Revenue of C$8.43B (+5.9% Y/Y).<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; border: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .25pt; mso-padding-alt: 0in 0in 0in 25.0pt; padding: 0in;"><span style="color: black; font-family: Roboto;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; border: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .25pt; mso-padding-alt: 0in 0in 0in 25.0pt; padding: 0in;"><span style="color: black; font-family: Roboto;">Bank of Nova Scotia (<span class="ticker-hover-wrapper"><span style="border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .25pt; padding: 0in;"><span style="--tw-border-spacing-x: 0; --tw-border-spacing-y: 0; --tw-ring-color: #3b82f680; --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; --tw-scale-x: 1; --tw-scale-y: 1; --tw-scroll-snap-strictness: proximity; --tw-shadow-colored: 0 0 #0000; --tw-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-skew-x: 0; --tw-skew-y: 0; --tw-translate-x: 0; --tw-translate-y: 0; box-sizing: border-box;">NYSE:<a href="https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/BNS?hasComeFromMpArticle=false&source=content_type%253Areact%257Csection%253Amain_content%257Cbutton%253Abody_link%257Cfirst_level_url%253Anews" style="--tw-border-spacing-x: 0; --tw-border-spacing-y: 0; --tw-ring-color: #3b82f680; --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; --tw-scale-x: 1; --tw-scale-y: 1; --tw-scroll-snap-strictness: proximity; --tw-shadow-colored: 0 0 #0000; --tw-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-skew-x: 0; --tw-skew-y: 0; --tw-translate-x: 0; --tw-translate-y: 0; background-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0); box-sizing: border-box; color: var(--sa-link-color);" title="The Bank of Nova Scotia"><span style="text-decoration: none; text-underline: none;">BNS</span></a></span></span></span>) declares C<a href="https://seekingalpha.com/pr/19634895-scotiabank-announces-dividend-on-outstanding-shares?hasComeFromMpArticle=false&source=content_type%253Areact%257Csection%253Amain_content%257Cbutton%253Abody_link%257Cfirst_level_url%253Anews" style="--tw-border-spacing-x: 0; --tw-border-spacing-y: 0; --tw-ring-color: #3b82f680; --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; --tw-scale-x: 1; --tw-scale-y: 1; --tw-scroll-snap-strictness: proximity; --tw-shadow-colored: 0 0 #0000; --tw-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-skew-x: 0; --tw-skew-y: 0; --tw-translate-x: 0; --tw-translate-y: 0; background-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0); box-sizing: border-box; color: var(--sa-link-color);"><span style="border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .25pt; padding: 0in; text-decoration: none; text-underline: none;">$1.06/share quarterly
dividend</span></a>, in line with previous.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</div>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><u><span style="font-size: 16.0pt;">What
I am reading today</span></u></i></b><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span><span style="font-size: 6.0pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 6.0pt;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span></span>How to overcome
performance pressure.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span><span style="font-size: 11.0pt;"><a href="https://traderfeed.blogspot.com/2024/02/how-to-overcome-performance-pressure.html">https://traderfeed.blogspot.com/2024/02/how-to-overcome-performance-pressure.html</a><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 11.0pt;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 11.0pt;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span></span>Quote of the day.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span><a href="https://cafehayek.com/2024/02/quotation-of-the-day-4557.html">https://cafehayek.com/2024/02/quotation-of-the-day-4557.html</a><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 11.0pt;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<div style="border-bottom: dotted windowtext 3.0pt; border: none; mso-element: para-border-div; padding: 0in 0in 1.0pt 0in;">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="border: none; mso-border-bottom-alt: dotted windowtext 3.0pt; mso-padding-alt: 0in 0in 1.0pt 0in; padding: 0in; text-align: justify;"><o:p> </o:p></p>
</div>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-top: 12.0pt; text-align: justify;">Visit Investing
for Survival’s website (<a href="http://investingforsurvival.com/home">http://investingforsurvival.com/home</a>)
to learn more about our Investment Strategy, Prices Disciplines and Subscriber
Service.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-top: 12.0pt; text-align: justify;"><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-top: 12.0pt; text-align: justify;"><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-top: 12.0pt; text-align: justify;"><o:p> </o:p></p>Steven J Cookhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15993653615335271862noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4670837083672737109.post-87289381285608230022024-02-26T06:08:00.000-08:002024-02-26T06:08:57.861-08:00Monday Morning Chartology<p> </p><div style="border-bottom: dotted windowtext 3.0pt; border: none; mso-element: para-border-div; padding: 0in 0in 1.0pt 0in;">
<p align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="border: none; mso-border-bottom-alt: dotted windowtext 3.0pt; mso-padding-alt: 0in 0in 1.0pt 0in; padding: 0in; text-align: center;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="font-size: 24.0pt;">The Morning Call<o:p></o:p></span></i></b></p>
</div>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;">2/26/24<o:p></o:p></p>
<p align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;"><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><u><span style="font-size: 16.0pt;">The
Market</span></u></i></b><span style="font-size: 16.0pt; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><u>Technical<o:p></o:p></u></i></b></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><u><span style="font-size: 14.0pt;"><o:p><span style="text-decoration: none;"> </span></o:p></span></u></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: .5in; text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">The S&P
continued its positive performance albeit with a minor hiccup. I covered most
of the action in last week’s Morning Calls. But to summarize (1) the S&P
fell out of a wedge formation but, (2) recovered from the challenge one day
longer than our time and distance discipline calls for, (3) surged above the
upper boundary of that wedge formation [the upper boundary of its short term
uptrend], (4) but did so on a huge gap up open---which as you know, I believe
has to be filled.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: .5in; text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: .5in; text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">Overall, I think
this pin action a positive for, at least, the short term. Certainly, there is
no overhead resistance except at a truly extended level (~6700). On the other
hand, (1) we have two stocks that are nearing their Sell Half levels [though
admittedly these start to occur well before a Market peak], (2) that gap up
open may act as an anchor to upside momentum and (3) as per the links below,
Market technicians are sounding warning signals.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: .5in; text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: .5in; text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">Bottom line. Momentum
remains to the upside, at least short term. I continue to hold the IWN trading position.
<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span></i></b><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">Dow divergences.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span></span><a href="https://allstarcharts.com/140-year-old-strategy-is-working/"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">https://allstarcharts.com/140-year-old-strategy-is-working/</span></a><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>More
divergences.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span></span><span style="font-size: 7.0pt; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><a href="https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/market-cracks-below-surface-collapsing-big-money-breadth-marks-growing-bearish-divergence">https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/market-cracks-below-surface-collapsing-big-money-breadth-marks-growing-bearish-divergence</a><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>Potential
blow off top.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span></span><a href="https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/markets-general-dynamic-looks-potential-blow-top-nomura-warns"><span style="font-size: 9.0pt; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/markets-general-dynamic-looks-potential-blow-top-nomura-warns</span></a><span style="font-size: 9.0pt; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 9.0pt; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 9.0pt; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span></span><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">The latest from Goldman.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span></span><a href="https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/goldman-trader-stocks-all-time-high-markets-riskreward-profile-has-changed"><span style="font-size: 8.0pt; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/goldman-trader-stocks-all-time-high-markets-riskreward-profile-has-changed</span></a><span style="font-size: 8.0pt; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 8.0pt; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>More
from Goldman.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span></span><a href="https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/not-even-1999-yet"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/not-even-1999-yet</span></a><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p></o:p></i></b></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgneOwMn9uphMFT6Qd-_CMEwMpEjhJ_PhluPtjpqT-DxArx6Aoo3ZZGk8tZiwMd9kRf1jswdKWptTcs3beL0Rj8-ZHpXSB-rVsW_Pw-Eq8HYKwggfspsOUKJSq5218NiyRTRdUXFiU2m_97zm7NnmW8uA1OIbPdF1V6SjzRr25-o6fB0wzPl1BqT-rT7NM/s1920/ap22624.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1080" data-original-width="1920" height="360" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgneOwMn9uphMFT6Qd-_CMEwMpEjhJ_PhluPtjpqT-DxArx6Aoo3ZZGk8tZiwMd9kRf1jswdKWptTcs3beL0Rj8-ZHpXSB-rVsW_Pw-Eq8HYKwggfspsOUKJSq5218NiyRTRdUXFiU2m_97zm7NnmW8uA1OIbPdF1V6SjzRr25-o6fB0wzPl1BqT-rT7NM/w640-h360/ap22624.jpg" width="640" /></a></i></b></div><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><br /> </i></b><p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p><br /></o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: .5in; text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">The long bond was up
on the week, managing to bounce off its 100 DMA. Nevertheless, it made a new
lower low; so the trend remains to the downside (higher rates).<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: .5in; text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: .5in; text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: .5in; text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiUoJOUbZtjh2-_R2OpFXEQWHOc-xYDjAgvPmMWZnnLLQ8q8ZpB1yyfnEwlvuoeQWn0dYhNMLJgohOAKPg1c5jPvgkIIkeot06igUbuZV9AJh2bVhthyphenhyphen9RN2J_6KTaC-gpIefDOxx8H96EXHWGQ1MeVAF167Lqk8xd3lDxqNdt_Z3LfCwA-oPSltFS9x0s/s1920/tlt22624.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1080" data-original-width="1920" height="360" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiUoJOUbZtjh2-_R2OpFXEQWHOc-xYDjAgvPmMWZnnLLQ8q8ZpB1yyfnEwlvuoeQWn0dYhNMLJgohOAKPg1c5jPvgkIIkeot06igUbuZV9AJh2bVhthyphenhyphen9RN2J_6KTaC-gpIefDOxx8H96EXHWGQ1MeVAF167Lqk8xd3lDxqNdt_Z3LfCwA-oPSltFS9x0s/w640-h360/tlt22624.jpg" width="640" /></a></div><br /> <p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: .5in; text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: .5in; text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: .5in; text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">GLD had a great
week, rallying off its 100 DMA (now support) and beginning a challenge of its
50 DMA (if it remains there through the close today, it will revert to support).
On the negative side, it made a large gap up open on Tuesday which needs to be
filled. Despite this very positive one week performance, it remains in a short
term downtrend. As has been my position for the last four months, until GLD can
break above its all-time high, I still see no reason to dabble.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: .5in; tab-stops: 60.7pt; text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span><o:p></o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="tab-stops: 60.7pt; text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: .5in; tab-stops: 60.7pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-no-proof: yes;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: .5in; tab-stops: 60.7pt; text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhWkAmmR8B9en_KCndikIkgj1clVVKhsK6MX5lB6Rk7V29y-Iy58BqV2gPHMpXmFxLpUZ9v66oj4kb3gL8jld1pOfW3ixDLGACLV-eGiAkvBsnb5MJjOsBxvvhEqGBGE93IaQaek-cL03q9ZnUzBMAn956rKDQxUGBaADUBOcXV6PZH0XPc1imB3RNKPBY/s1920/gld22624.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1080" data-original-width="1920" height="360" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhWkAmmR8B9en_KCndikIkgj1clVVKhsK6MX5lB6Rk7V29y-Iy58BqV2gPHMpXmFxLpUZ9v66oj4kb3gL8jld1pOfW3ixDLGACLV-eGiAkvBsnb5MJjOsBxvvhEqGBGE93IaQaek-cL03q9ZnUzBMAn956rKDQxUGBaADUBOcXV6PZH0XPc1imB3RNKPBY/w640-h360/gld22624.jpg" width="640" /></a></i></b></div><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><br /></i></b><p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: .5in; tab-stops: 60.7pt; text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: .5in; text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: .5in; text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">While the dollar’s
long term uptrend remains in place, its short term technical picture has been
wrecked. To be sure, a gap down open of the order of magnitude shown on the
chart begs to be closed. And that is what has been happening since its low in
late December. However, last week, the dollar’s advance showed some signs of
tiring. As it approached the upper boundary of its short t term downtrend and
both its 100 and 200 DMA’s (heavy resistance), it failed to hold the minor
uptrend off its December low. Let’s see what kind of follow through we get;
remember a weak dollar is generally good for equities.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: .5in; text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: .5in; text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhP4fdTiIfjPOnOTH0J91S7YvPOIZ1SU4ELera96bEb_WRdIWCChHh4c8sof-AVqvN6MhB189Eop0b5z6c9Id1LWwtYYgWr5ePTsU2OxS9xpnr_25BLtG_NZdET-Zcd9BxgxXh0EKpf0MOnc7DCKpN0MRXLT4pNfTQp58NmbadywKxfpqHysT0tbA0CDxM/s1920/uup22624.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1080" data-original-width="1920" height="360" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhP4fdTiIfjPOnOTH0J91S7YvPOIZ1SU4ELera96bEb_WRdIWCChHh4c8sof-AVqvN6MhB189Eop0b5z6c9Id1LWwtYYgWr5ePTsU2OxS9xpnr_25BLtG_NZdET-Zcd9BxgxXh0EKpf0MOnc7DCKpN0MRXLT4pNfTQp58NmbadywKxfpqHysT0tbA0CDxM/w640-h360/uup22624.jpg" width="640" /></a></i></b></div><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><br /></i></b><p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span></i></b><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">Friday in the
charts.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span></span><a href="https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/best-week-bullion-2024-mega-caps-melt-bad-breadth"><span style="font-size: 10.0pt; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/best-week-bullion-2024-mega-caps-melt-bad-breadth</span></a><span style="font-size: 10.0pt; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></i></b><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><u><span style="font-size: 14.0pt;">Fundamental</span></u></i></b><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Headlines</i></b><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="tab-stops: 41.95pt; text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>The
Economy</i></b><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="tab-stops: 41.95pt; text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="tab-stops: 41.95pt 1.0in 1.5in 2.0in 2.5in center 3.0in; text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 2;"> </span>Week in review<o:p></o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="tab-stops: 41.95pt 1.0in 1.5in 2.0in 2.5in center 3.0in; text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 1.0in; tab-stops: 41.95pt 1.0in 1.5in 2.0in 2.5in center 3.0in; text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">It was a slow week
for economic data. The stats in the US were pretty evenly divided as were the primary
indicators (one positive, one negative). So, nothing there to prompt any kind
of change on outlook nor to relieve concerns that the brief string of upbeat
numbers may have been just that---brief. In short, no reason to back off my
recession call.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 1.0in; tab-stops: 41.95pt 1.0in 1.5in 2.0in 2.5in center 3.0in; text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 1.0in; tab-stops: 41.95pt 1.0in 1.5in 2.0in 2.5in center 3.0in; text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">One item worth
mentioning: the minutes from the last FOMC meeting were more hawkish than anticipated.
That in turn has altered the Street narrative, (1) now at least considering
that the next Fed move could be to raise rates versus lower them, (2) certainly
modifying the rate cut story line to ‘fewer for longer’, but (3) suggesting
that my recession forecast is off base, irrespective of the data flow. </span><span style="font-size: 6.0pt; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 1.0in; tab-stops: 41.95pt 1.0in 1.5in 2.0in 2.5in center 3.0in; text-align: justify;"><a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-02-22/senior-fed-officials-bolster-case-for-cautious-approach-to-interest-rate-cuts?srnd=premium&embedded-checkout=true&sref=loFkkPMQ"><span style="font-size: 6.0pt; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-02-22/senior-fed-officials-bolster-case-for-cautious-approach-to-interest-rate-cuts?srnd=premium&embedded-checkout=true&sref=loFkkPMQ</span></a><span style="font-size: 6.0pt; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 1.0in; tab-stops: 41.95pt 1.0in 1.5in 2.0in 2.5in center 3.0in; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 6.0pt; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 1.0in; tab-stops: 41.95pt 1.0in 1.5in 2.0in 2.5in center 3.0in; text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">Two issues remain:<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 1.0in; tab-stops: 41.95pt 1.0in 1.5in 2.0in 2.5in center 3.0in; text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 1.0in; tab-stops: 41.95pt 1.0in 1.5in 2.0in 2.5in center 3.0in; text-align: justify;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">First,
at least for me, is that inflation may not be behind us as I had thought which
means the Fed (if you believe its current narrative) could stay tighter for
even longer keeping the risk of recession omnipresent for much longer. </span></i><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="font-size: 10.0pt; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p></o:p></span></i></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 1.0in; tab-stops: 41.95pt 1.0in 1.5in 2.0in 2.5in center 3.0in; text-align: justify;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="font-size: 10.0pt; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p> </o:p></span></i></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 1.0in; tab-stops: 41.95pt 1.0in 1.5in 2.0in 2.5in center 3.0in; text-align: justify;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">On
the other hand, if you are a cynic like me, you can’t help but think that the
Fed will ease (for political reasons) whether it has conquered inflation or not.
<o:p></o:p></span></i></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 1.0in; tab-stops: 41.95pt; text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 1.0in; tab-stops: 41.95pt; text-align: justify;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">Second,
I (and most of the rest of the universe) believed that we were getting clarity
on the question of recession/landing, i.e., that the economy would avoid a hard
landing. Last week’s stats certainly raises doubts.<o:p></o:p></span></i></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 1.0in; tab-stops: 41.95pt; text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 1.0in; tab-stops: 41.95pt; text-align: justify;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">Bottom
line:<o:p></o:p></span></i></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 1.0in; tab-stops: 41.95pt; text-align: justify;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p> </o:p></span></i></p>
<p class="MsoListParagraph" style="margin-left: 1.25in; mso-add-space: auto; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; tab-stops: 41.95pt; text-align: justify; text-indent: -.25in;"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">(1)<span style="font: 7.0pt "Times New Roman";">
</span></span></span><!--[endif]--><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">Unfortunately, the inflation risk may not be
behind us as per my current forecast. I am not altering it yet but clearly </span></i><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">[the Fed thinks
that it might be]</span><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"> it is now in question. And any further data
suggesting that it is not will likely prompt a change. That, in turn, would
amplify the impact of a grossly irresponsible fiscal policy which if left
unresolved will ultimately push interest rates and inflation to even higher
levels, risking a tighter monetary policy and impeding the economy’s ability to
grow.<o:p></o:p></span></i></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="tab-stops: 41.95pt; text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 2;"> </span></i></b><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span></i><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="font-size: 9.0pt; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></i></p>
<p class="MsoListParagraph" style="margin-left: 1.25in; mso-add-space: auto; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; tab-stops: 41.95pt; text-align: justify; text-indent: -.25in;"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">(2)<span style="font: 7.0pt "Times New Roman";">
</span></span></span><!--[endif]--><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">Just as unfortunate, the question of
recession [what kind of landing] which appeared to be gaining clarity, </span></i><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">remains a bit
murky</span><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">. Of course, my forecast had been for some type of growth problem which I
was considering changing. Last week’s stats increases my hesitation to do so. <o:p></o:p></span></i></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="tab-stops: 75.2pt; text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="font-size: 8.0pt;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 2;"> </span></span><o:p></o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="tab-stops: 41.95pt; text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 2;"> </span>US</i></b><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 7.0pt; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 2;"> </span>International</i></b><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 2;"> </span>Other<o:p></o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>The
Fed<o:p></o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></i></b><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">The ECB can afford less restrictive stance by
summer.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: .5in; text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span><a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-02-23/ecb-can-afford-less-restrictive-stance-from-summer-simkus-says?srnd=premium&embedded-checkout=true&sref=loFkkPMQ"><span style="font-size: 6.0pt; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-02-23/ecb-can-afford-less-restrictive-stance-from-summer-simkus-says?srnd=premium&embedded-checkout=true&sref=loFkkPMQ</span></a><span style="font-size: 6.0pt; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 6.0pt; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>Recession<o:p></o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></i></b><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">Two January recession indicators.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span><a href="https://econbrowser.com/archives/2024/02/cfnai-for-january-wei-for-mid-february"><span style="font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">https://econbrowser.com/archives/2024/02/cfnai-for-january-wei-for-mid-february</span></a><span style="font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">Weekly recession
alert indicator.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span><a href="https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2024/02/23/recession-weekly-leading-economic-index"><span style="font-size: 9.0pt; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2024/02/23/recession-weekly-leading-economic-index</span></a><span style="font-size: 9.0pt; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></i></b><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">The mortgage delinquency rate fell in January.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span><a href="https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2024/02/ice-mortgage-delinquency-rate-decreased.html"><span style="font-size: 9.0pt; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2024/02/ice-mortgage-delinquency-rate-decreased.html</span></a><span style="font-size: 9.0pt; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>Government
Shutdown<o:p></o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></i></b><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">Shutdown fears grow.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span><span style="font-size: 9.0pt; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span><a href="https://thehill.com/homenews/house/4484048-gop-shutdown-fears-grow-we-could-be-in-a-world-of-hurt/"><span style="font-size: 9.0pt; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">https://thehill.com/homenews/house/4484048-gop-shutdown-fears-grow-we-could-be-in-a-world-of-hurt/</span></a><span style="font-size: 9.0pt; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Bottom line<o:p></o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span></i></b><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">The latest from
BofA.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span></span><a href="https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/harnett-how-trade-coming-end-us-exceptionalism"><span style="font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/harnett-how-trade-coming-end-us-exceptionalism</span></a><span style="font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span></i></b><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">Using
macroeconomics to aid in investing.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span></span><a href="https://disciplinefunds.com/2024/02/21/how-to-use-macroeconomic-investing-analysis/"><span style="font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">https://disciplinefunds.com/2024/02/21/how-to-use-macroeconomic-investing-analysis/</span></a><span style="font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span></i></b><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">The newest ‘it’s
different this time’ argument. As always, it’s probably not.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span></span><a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/will-ai-compensate-for-a-low-expected-equity-risk-premium/"><span style="font-size: 10.0pt; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">https://www.capitalspectator.com/will-ai-compensate-for-a-low-expected-equity-risk-premium/</span></a><span style="font-size: 10.0pt; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>News on Stocks in Our Portfolios</i></b><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><u><span style="font-size: 16.0pt;">What
I am reading today</span></u></i></b><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><o:p> </o:p></p>
<div style="border-bottom: dotted windowtext 3.0pt; border: none; mso-element: para-border-div; padding: 0in 0in 1.0pt 0in;">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="border: none; mso-border-bottom-alt: dotted windowtext 3.0pt; mso-padding-alt: 0in 0in 1.0pt 0in; padding: 0in; text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>How to keep your memory sharp (avoid
dementia)<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="border: none; mso-border-bottom-alt: dotted windowtext 3.0pt; mso-padding-alt: 0in 0in 1.0pt 0in; padding: 0in; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 10.0pt;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span></span><a href="https://www.nationalgeographic.com/premium/article/top-tips-memory-sharp-age-dementia?rid=7912D7310BBCEE9B958D4BEDCFEC5AE5&cmpid=org%3Dngp%3A%3Amc%3Dcrm-email%3A%3Asrc%3Dngp%3A%3Acmp%3Deditorial%3A%3Aadd%3DDaily_NL_Friday_History_20240223&loggedin=true&rnd=1708721773916"><span style="font-size: 10.0pt;">Want to keep your memory sharp? Here’s what science
recommends. (nationalgeographic.com)</span></a><span style="font-size: 10.0pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="border: none; mso-border-bottom-alt: dotted windowtext 3.0pt; mso-padding-alt: 0in 0in 1.0pt 0in; padding: 0in; text-align: justify;"><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="border: none; mso-border-bottom-alt: dotted windowtext 3.0pt; mso-padding-alt: 0in 0in 1.0pt 0in; padding: 0in; text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>The seven most exciting
archeological finds in 2023.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="border: none; mso-border-bottom-alt: dotted windowtext 3.0pt; mso-padding-alt: 0in 0in 1.0pt 0in; padding: 0in; text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span><a href="https://www.nationalgeographic.com/premium/article/exciting-archaeological-discoveries-2023">7
of the most exciting archaeological discoveries in 2023
(nationalgeographic.com)</a><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="border: none; mso-border-bottom-alt: dotted windowtext 3.0pt; mso-padding-alt: 0in 0in 1.0pt 0in; padding: 0in; text-align: justify;"><o:p> </o:p></p>
</div>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-top: 12.0pt; text-align: justify;">Visit Investing
for Survival’s website (<a href="http://investingforsurvival.com/home">http://investingforsurvival.com/home</a>)
to learn more about our Investment Strategy, Prices Disciplines and Subscriber
Service.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-top: 12.0pt; text-align: justify;"><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-top: 12.0pt; text-align: justify;"><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-top: 12.0pt; text-align: justify;"><o:p> </o:p></p>Steven J Cookhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15993653615335271862noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4670837083672737109.post-11172688609316159032024-02-23T06:00:00.000-08:002024-02-23T06:00:09.835-08:00The Morning Call--Nvidia does the trick<p> </p><div style="border-bottom: dotted windowtext 3.0pt; border: none; mso-element: para-border-div; padding: 0in 0in 1.0pt 0in;">
<p align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="border: none; mso-border-bottom-alt: dotted windowtext 3.0pt; mso-padding-alt: 0in 0in 1.0pt 0in; padding: 0in; text-align: center;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="font-size: 24.0pt;">The Morning Call<o:p></o:p></span></i></b></p>
</div>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;">2/23/24<o:p></o:p></p>
<p align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;"><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><u><span style="font-size: 16.0pt;">The
Market</span></u></i></b><span style="font-size: 16.0pt; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><u>Technical</u></i></b></span><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span></i></b><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">Thursday in the
charts.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span></span><a href="https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/everything-awesome"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/everything-awesome</span></a><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: .5in; text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">Note: Nvidia did
the trick. The S&P exploded higher yesterday, regaining the lower boundary
of its very short term uptrend and pushing through the upper boundary of its short
term uptrend. If it remains above it through the close on Monday, the challenge
will be successful. The good news is that there is no visible resistance
between it and the upper boundary of its intermediate term uptrend (~6700). The
bad news is that it created a huge gap up open, which needs to be filled.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span></i></b><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">All-time highs are
historically bullish.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span></span><a href="https://ritholtz.com/2024/02/all-time-highs-are-historically-bullish/"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">https://ritholtz.com/2024/02/all-time-highs-are-historically-bullish/</span></a><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span></i></b><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">Positioning is
worrying but no one cares.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span></span><a href="https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/positioning-worrying-and-nobody-seems-care"><span style="font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/positioning-worrying-and-nobody-seems-care</span></a><span style="font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></i></b><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><u><span style="font-size: 14.0pt;">Fundamental</span></u></i></b><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Headlines</i></b><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="tab-stops: 41.95pt; text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>The
Economy</i></b><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="tab-stops: 41.95pt; text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="tab-stops: 41.95pt; text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>US</i></b><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 2;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></i></b><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">January existing home sales were up 3.1%
versus estimates of +3.0%.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 2;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span><a href="https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2024/02/22/existing-home-sales-reach-five-month-high"><span style="font-size: 8.0pt; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2024/02/22/existing-home-sales-reach-five-month-high</span></a><span style="font-size: 8.0pt; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 8.0pt; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 78.0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">The February flash
manufacturing PMI was 51.5 versus projections of 50.5; the flash services PMI
was 51.3 versus 52.0; the flash composite PMI was 51.4 versus 51.9.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>International</i></b><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 78.0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">Final Q4 German
GDP growth was -0.3%, in line; the February business climate index was 85.5, in
line; the February current conditions index was 86.9 versus 86.7.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>Other</i></b><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>The
Fed<o:p></o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span></i></b><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Are rate hikes really unthinkable?<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span><a href="https://www.themoneyillusion.com/are-rate-increases-unthinkable/"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">https://www.themoneyillusion.com/are-rate-increases-unthinkable/</span></a><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>Fiscal
policy<o:p></o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></i></b><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">A profit seeking government.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span><a href="https://arnoldkling.substack.com/p/a-profit-seeking-government"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">https://arnoldkling.substack.com/p/a-profit-seeking-government</span></a><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></i></b><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">CBO revises costs on new energy policy. Guess
which way.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span><a href="https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/cbo-revised-cost-bidens-energy-policies-466-billion"><span style="font-size: 10.0pt; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/cbo-revised-cost-bidens-energy-policies-466-billion</span></a><span style="font-size: 10.0pt; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Bottom line.<o:p></o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span></i></b><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">How valuable is
the advice from CNBC?<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span></span><a href="https://slate.com/business/2024/02/cnbc-investing-advice-bad-making-money.html"><span style="font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">https://slate.com/business/2024/02/cnbc-investing-advice-bad-making-money.html</span></a><span style="font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>News on Stocks in Our Portfolios</i></b><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span><o:p></o:p></p>
<div style="background: white; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; margin-left: .5in; margin-right: 0in; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .25pt; mso-element: para-border-div; padding: 0in 0in 0in 25.0pt;">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; border: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .25pt; mso-padding-alt: 0in 0in 0in 25.0pt; padding: 0in;"><span style="color: black;">EOG
Resources <a href="https://seekingalpha.com/pr/19631994-eog-resources-reports-fourth-quarter-and-full-year-2023-results-announces-2024-capital-plan?hasComeFromMpArticle=false&source=content_type%253Areact%257Csection%253Amain_content%257Cbutton%253Abody_link%257Cfirst_level_url%253Anews" style="--tw-border-spacing-x: 0; --tw-border-spacing-y: 0; --tw-ring-color: #3b82f680; --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; --tw-scale-x: 1; --tw-scale-y: 1; --tw-scroll-snap-strictness: proximity; --tw-shadow-colored: 0 0 #0000; --tw-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-skew-x: 0; --tw-skew-y: 0; --tw-translate-x: 0; --tw-translate-y: 0; background-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0); box-sizing: border-box; color: var(--sa-link-color);" target="_blank"><span style="border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .25pt; padding: 0in;">press release</span></a> (<span class="ticker-hover-wrapper"><span style="border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .25pt; padding: 0in;"><span style="--tw-border-spacing-x: 0; --tw-border-spacing-y: 0; --tw-ring-color: #3b82f680; --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; --tw-scale-x: 1; --tw-scale-y: 1; --tw-scroll-snap-strictness: proximity; --tw-shadow-colored: 0 0 #0000; --tw-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-skew-x: 0; --tw-skew-y: 0; --tw-translate-x: 0; --tw-translate-y: 0; box-sizing: border-box;">NYSE:<a href="https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/EOG?hasComeFromMpArticle=false&source=content_type%253Areact%257Csection%253Amain_content%257Cbutton%253Abody_link%257Cfirst_level_url%253Anews" style="--tw-border-spacing-x: 0; --tw-border-spacing-y: 0; --tw-ring-color: #3b82f680; --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; --tw-scale-x: 1; --tw-scale-y: 1; --tw-scroll-snap-strictness: proximity; --tw-shadow-colored: 0 0 #0000; --tw-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-skew-x: 0; --tw-skew-y: 0; --tw-translate-x: 0; --tw-translate-y: 0; background-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0); box-sizing: border-box; color: var(--sa-link-color);" title="EOG Resources, Inc.">EOG</a></span></span></span>): Q4 Non-GAAP EPS of
$3.07 </span><span style="border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; color: red; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .25pt; padding: 0in;">misses by $0.04</span><span style="color: black;">.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; border: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .25pt; mso-padding-alt: 0in 0in 0in 25.0pt; padding: 0in;"><span style="color: black;">Revenue
of $6.36B (-5.4% Y/Y) </span><span style="border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; color: green; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .25pt; padding: 0in;">beats by $360M</span><span style="color: black;">.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; border: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .25pt; mso-padding-alt: 0in 0in 0in 25.0pt; padding: 0in;"><span style="color: black;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; border: none; margin-bottom: 12.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .25pt; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-padding-alt: 0in 0in 0in 25.0pt; padding: 0in;"><span style="color: black;">EOG Resources
(<span class="ticker-hover-wrapper"><span style="border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .25pt; padding: 0in;"><span style="--tw-border-spacing-x: 0; --tw-border-spacing-y: 0; --tw-ring-color: #3b82f680; --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; --tw-scale-x: 1; --tw-scale-y: 1; --tw-scroll-snap-strictness: proximity; --tw-shadow-colored: 0 0 #0000; --tw-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-skew-x: 0; --tw-skew-y: 0; --tw-translate-x: 0; --tw-translate-y: 0; box-sizing: border-box;">NYSE:<a href="https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/EOG?hasComeFromMpArticle=false&source=content_type%253Areact%257Csection%253Amain_content%257Cbutton%253Abody_link%257Cfirst_level_url%253Anews" style="--tw-border-spacing-x: 0; --tw-border-spacing-y: 0; --tw-ring-color: #3b82f680; --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; --tw-scale-x: 1; --tw-scale-y: 1; --tw-scroll-snap-strictness: proximity; --tw-shadow-colored: 0 0 #0000; --tw-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-skew-x: 0; --tw-skew-y: 0; --tw-translate-x: 0; --tw-translate-y: 0; background-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0); box-sizing: border-box; color: var(--sa-link-color);" title="EOG Resources, Inc.">EOG</a></span></span></span>) declares <a href="https://seekingalpha.com/pr/19631994-eog-resources-reports-fourth-quarter-and-full-year-2023-results-announces-2024-capital-plan?hasComeFromMpArticle=false&source=content_type%253Areact%257Csection%253Amain_content%257Cbutton%253Abody_link%257Cfirst_level_url%253Anews" style="--tw-border-spacing-x: 0; --tw-border-spacing-y: 0; --tw-ring-color: #3b82f680; --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; --tw-scale-x: 1; --tw-scale-y: 1; --tw-scroll-snap-strictness: proximity; --tw-shadow-colored: 0 0 #0000; --tw-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-skew-x: 0; --tw-skew-y: 0; --tw-translate-x: 0; --tw-translate-y: 0; background-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0); box-sizing: border-box; color: var(--sa-link-color);" target="_blank"><span style="border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .25pt; padding: 0in;">$0.91/share quarterly
dividend</span></a>, in line with previous.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</div>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><u><span style="font-size: 16.0pt;">What
I am reading today</span></u></i></b><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>The
first sack of Rome.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span><a href="https://www.nationalgeographic.com/premium/article/first-sack-of-rome-gaul?rid=7912D7310BBCEE9B958D4BEDCFEC5AE5&cmpid=org%3Dngp%3A%3Amc%3Dcrm-email%3A%3Asrc%3Dngp%3A%3Acmp%3Deditorial%3A%3Aadd%3DDaily_NL_Tuesday_History_20240220&loggedin=true&rnd=1708629246729">The
first sack of Rome wasn't when you think it was (nationalgeographic.com)</a><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 6.0pt;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 6.0pt;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span></span>Quote of the day.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span><a href="https://cafehayek.com/2024/02/quotation-of-the-day-4552.html">https://cafehayek.com/2024/02/quotation-of-the-day-4552.html</a><o:p></o:p></p>
<div style="border-bottom: dotted windowtext 3.0pt; border: none; mso-element: para-border-div; padding: 0in 0in 1.0pt 0in;">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="border: none; mso-border-bottom-alt: dotted windowtext 3.0pt; mso-padding-alt: 0in 0in 1.0pt 0in; padding: 0in; text-align: justify;"><o:p> </o:p></p>
</div>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-top: 12.0pt; text-align: justify;">Visit Investing
for Survival’s website (<a href="http://investingforsurvival.com/home">http://investingforsurvival.com/home</a>)
to learn more about our Investment Strategy, Prices Disciplines and Subscriber
Service.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-top: 12.0pt; text-align: justify;"><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-top: 12.0pt; text-align: justify;"><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-top: 12.0pt; text-align: justify;"><o:p> </o:p></p>Steven J Cookhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15993653615335271862noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4670837083672737109.post-37571565063845714912024-02-22T06:09:00.000-08:002024-02-22T06:09:25.301-08:00The Morning Call--FOMC minutes' narrative more hawkish than expected <p> </p><div style="border-bottom: dotted windowtext 3.0pt; border: none; mso-element: para-border-div; padding: 0in 0in 1.0pt 0in;">
<p align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="border: none; mso-border-bottom-alt: dotted windowtext 3.0pt; mso-padding-alt: 0in 0in 1.0pt 0in; padding: 0in; text-align: center;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="font-size: 24.0pt;">The Morning Call<o:p></o:p></span></i></b></p>
</div>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;">2/22/24<o:p></o:p></p>
<p align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;"><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><u><span style="font-size: 16.0pt;">The
Market</span></u></i></b><span style="font-size: 16.0pt; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><u>Technical</u></i></b></span><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span></i></b><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">Wednesday in the
charts.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span></span><span style="font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><a href="https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/bonds-stocks-dumped-ahead-jensens-big-night">https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/bonds-stocks-dumped-ahead-jensens-big-night</a><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: .5in; text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">Note: while the
S&P finished up on the day, it was not enough to regain the lower boundary
of its very short term uptrend, thus voiding it. However, futures are up this
morning on the Nivida earnings news. If that pushes the index back above the
very short term uptrend boundary, I will reinstate that trend. But the S&P
must still deal with the upper boundary of its short term uptrend.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span></i></b><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">Sentiment remains positive.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span></span><span style="font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><a href="https://www.bespokepremium.com/interactive/posts/think-big-blog/sturdy-sentiment">https://www.bespokepremium.com/interactive/posts/think-big-blog/sturdy-sentiment</a><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></i></b><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><u><span style="font-size: 14.0pt;">Fundamental</span></u></i></b><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Headlines</i></b><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="tab-stops: 41.95pt; text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>The
Economy</i></b><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="tab-stops: 41.95pt; text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="tab-stops: 41.95pt; text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>US</i></b><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 78.0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">Weekly initial
jobless claims totaled 201,000 versus predictions of 218,000.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 78.0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">Month to date
retail chain store sales grew more rapidly than in the prior week.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 78.0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">The January
Chicago national activity index came in at -0.3 versus consensus of -0.19.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>International</i></b><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 2;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></i></b><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">January EU CPI was -0.4%, in line.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 78.0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">The February
German flash manufacturing PMI was 42.3 versus expectations of 46.1; the
February flash services PMI was 48.2 versus 48.0; the February flash composite
PMI was 46.1 versus 47.5; the February EU flash manufacturing PMI was 46.1
versus 47.0; the February flash services PMI was 50.0 versus 48.5; the February
flash composite PMI was 48.9 versus 48.5; the February UK flash manufacturing
PMI was 47.1 versus 47.5; the February flash services PMI was 54.3 versus 54.1;
the February flash composite PMI was 53.3 versus 52.9.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 78.0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 78.0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 78.0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 78.0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>Other</i></b><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 2;"> </span></i></b><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">January architecture
billings were sluggish.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 2;"> </span></span><span style="font-size: 10.0pt; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><a href="https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2024/02/aia-architecture-billings-index-reports.html">https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2024/02/aia-architecture-billings-index-reports.html</a><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>The
Fed<o:p></o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 42.0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">The Fed released
the minutes from the last FOMC meeting. They more hawkish than was generally
expected. But I thought that the Market took it reasonably well.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span></i></b><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><a href="https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/fomc-minutes-7">https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/fomc-minutes-7</a><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></i></b><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">The Market continues to price in a path to
rate cuts in 2024.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span><span style="font-size: 10.0pt; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/markets-continue-to-price-in-path-for-rate-cuts-in-2024/">https://www.capitalspectator.com/markets-continue-to-price-in-path-for-rate-cuts-in-2024/</a><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>Inflation<o:p></o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></i></b><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">It has been thirty years since food ate up
this much of your income.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span><span style="font-size: 6.0pt; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><a href="https://www.wsj.com/economy/consumers/its-been-30-years-since-food-ate-up-this-much-of-your-income-2e3dd3ed?mod=economy_lead_story">https://www.wsj.com/economy/consumers/its-been-30-years-since-food-ate-up-this-much-of-your-income-2e3dd3ed?mod=economy_lead_story</a><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>Government
Shutdown<o:p></o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></i></b><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">The deadline looms.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span><span style="font-size: 7.0pt; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><a href="https://www.zerohedge.com/political/close-deal-or-its-about-blow-speaker-johnson-enters-mccarthy-territory-march-deadline">https://www.zerohedge.com/political/close-deal-or-its-about-blow-speaker-johnson-enters-mccarthy-territory-march-deadline</a><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span><o:p></o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Bottom line<o:p></o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span></i></b><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">Knowns, known unknowns
and unknown unknowns.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span></span><span style="font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><a href="https://alhambrapartners.com/2024/02/20/weekly-market-pulse-questions/?src=news">https://alhambrapartners.com/2024/02/20/weekly-market-pulse-questions/?src=news</a><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span></span><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">Cliff Arness’ top ten peeves.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span><a href="https://www.aqr.com/Insights/Research/Journal-Article/My-Top-10-Peeves">https://www.aqr.com/Insights/Research/Journal-Article/My-Top-10-Peeves</a><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span></i></b><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">Getting the big
things right.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span><a href="https://theirrelevantinvestor.com/2024/02/17/get-the-big-things-right/">https://theirrelevantinvestor.com/2024/02/17/get-the-big-things-right/</a><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>News on Stocks in Our Portfolios</i></b><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><u><span style="font-size: 16.0pt;">What
I am reading today</span></u></i></b><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>Higher
education crapification.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span><span style="font-size: 7.0pt;"><a href="https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2024/02/michael-hudson-higher-education-crapification-the-new-school-case-study.html">https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2024/02/michael-hudson-higher-education-crapification-the-new-school-case-study.html</a><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 7.0pt;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 6.0pt;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span></span>The coming flip
from El Nino to La Nina.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span><a href="https://www.zerohedge.com/weather/coming-collapse-el-nino-and-flip-la-nina">https://www.zerohedge.com/weather/coming-collapse-el-nino-and-flip-la-nina</a><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>Which
lifestyle changes can help you live longer?<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span><span style="font-size: 11.0pt;"><a href="https://www.zerohedge.com/medical/which-lifestyle-changes-can-make-you-live-longer">https://www.zerohedge.com/medical/which-lifestyle-changes-can-make-you-live-longer</a><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 11.0pt;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<div style="border-bottom: dotted windowtext 3.0pt; border: none; mso-element: para-border-div; padding: 0in 0in 1.0pt 0in;">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="border: none; mso-border-bottom-alt: dotted windowtext 3.0pt; mso-padding-alt: 0in 0in 1.0pt 0in; padding: 0in; text-align: justify;"><o:p> </o:p></p>
</div>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-top: 12.0pt; text-align: justify;">Visit Investing
for Survival’s website (<a href="http://investingforsurvival.com/home">http://investingforsurvival.com/home</a>)
to learn more about our Investment Strategy, Prices Disciplines and Subscriber
Service.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-top: 12.0pt; text-align: justify;"><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-top: 12.0pt; text-align: justify;"><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-top: 12.0pt; text-align: justify;"><o:p> </o:p></p>Steven J Cookhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15993653615335271862noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4670837083672737109.post-29288272769765269442024-02-21T06:06:00.000-08:002024-02-21T06:06:20.426-08:00The Morning Call---S&P breaks very short term uptrend<p> </p><div style="border-bottom: dotted windowtext 3.0pt; border: none; mso-element: para-border-div; padding: 0in 0in 1.0pt 0in;">
<p align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="border: none; mso-border-bottom-alt: dotted windowtext 3.0pt; mso-padding-alt: 0in 0in 1.0pt 0in; padding: 0in; text-align: center;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="font-size: 24.0pt;">The Morning Call<o:p></o:p></span></i></b></p>
</div>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;">2/21/24<o:p></o:p></p>
<p align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;"><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><u><span style="font-size: 16.0pt;">The
Market</span></u></i></b><span style="font-size: 16.0pt; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><u>Technical</u></i></b></span><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span></i></b><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">Tuesday in the
charts.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span></span><span style="font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><a href="https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/bonds-bullion-bid-stocks-skid-ahead-nvdas-big-da">https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/bonds-bullion-bid-stocks-skid-ahead-nvdas-big-da</a><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: .5in; text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">Note: the S&P
challenged the lower boundary of its very short term uptrend yesterday. If it remains
there through the close today, it will negate that trend. If so, then we need
to look for the next support levels; which are as follows: the 50 DMA (~4826),
the 100 DMA (~4598), the 200 DMA (~4489), the lower boundary of its short term
uptrend (~4321), the lower boundary of its intermediate term uptrend (~4261). Be
careful.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span></i></b><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">Equal weighted indices
back to 2021 highs, but………<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span><a href="https://allstarcharts.com/equally-weighted-indexes-back-to-2021-highs/">https://allstarcharts.com/equally-weighted-indexes-back-to-2021-highs/</a><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span></i></b><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">Margin debt up in
January.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span></span><span style="font-size: 10.0pt; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><a href="https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2024/02/20/margin-debt-up-0-2-in-january">https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2024/02/20/margin-debt-up-0-2-in-january</a><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span></i></b><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">Don’t fear all-time
highs; understand them.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span></span><a href="https://realinvestmentadvice.com/dont-fear-all-time-highs-understand-them/?utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Tuesday%20Takes%20Dont%20Fear%20All-Time%20Highs%20Understand%20Them&utm_content=Tuesday%20Takes%20Dont%20Fear%20All-Time%20Highs%20Understand%20Them+CID_c81925b22cd7cb477a72e5aa1d119db4&utm_source=RIA%20Email%20Marketing%20Software&utm_term=READ%20MORE">Don't
Fear All-Time Highs, Understand Them - RIA (realinvestmentadvice.com)</a><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span></i></b><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">Everyone is in the
pool.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span></span><span style="font-size: 7.0pt; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><a href="https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/everyones-pool-goldmans-flows-guru-sees-positioning-warning-signs-ahead-nvda-earnings">https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/everyones-pool-goldmans-flows-guru-sees-positioning-warning-signs-ahead-nvda-earnings</a><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></i></b><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><u><span style="font-size: 14.0pt;">Fundamental</span></u></i></b><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Headlines</i></b><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="tab-stops: 41.95pt; text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>The
Economy</i></b><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="tab-stops: 41.95pt; text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="tab-stops: 41.95pt; text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>US</i></b><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 78.0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">Weekly mortgage applications
fell 10.6% while purchase applications were down 10.0%.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 78.0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">The January leading
economic indicators were down 0.4% versus estimates of -0.3%.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 2;"> </span></i></b><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span><span style="font-size: 6.0pt; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><a href="https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2024/02/20/leading-economic-index-conference-board-no-longer-forecasting-recession">https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2024/02/20/leading-economic-index-conference-board-no-longer-forecasting-recession</a><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 6.0pt; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>International</i></b><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 78.0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">The January
Japanese trade balance was -Y1758.3 billion versus predictions of -Y1925.9
billion.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>Other<o:p></o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span></span><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">The
Fed<o:p></o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></i></b><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">Markets starting to speculate that next Fed
move is up not down.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: .5in; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 6.0pt; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-02-20/markets-start-to-speculate-if-the-next-fed-move-is-up-not-down?srnd=premium&embedded-checkout=true&sref=loFkkPMQ">https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-02-20/markets-start-to-speculate-if-the-next-fed-move-is-up-not-down?srnd=premium&embedded-checkout=true&sref=loFkkPMQ</a><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 6.0pt; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The Fed has a big problem.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span><span style="font-size: 8.0pt; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><a href="https://www.zerohedge.com/personal-finance/feds-big-problem-there-are-two-economies-only-one-interest-rate">https://www.zerohedge.com/personal-finance/feds-big-problem-there-are-two-economies-only-one-interest-rate</a><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>Recession<o:p></o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></i></b><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">Recession defined and predicted (?).<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span><span style="font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><a href="https://econbrowser.com/archives/2024/02/recessions-defined-and-maybe-predicted">https://econbrowser.com/archives/2024/02/recessions-defined-and-maybe-predicted</a><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></i></b><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">Credit cards starting to show strain.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span><span style="font-size: 9.0pt; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><a href="https://www.advisorperspectives.com/commentaries/2024/02/20/credit-cards-showing-strains-northerntrust">https://www.advisorperspectives.com/commentaries/2024/02/20/credit-cards-showing-strains-northerntrust</a><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span></i></b><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Estimating recession risk using data from the
states.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span><span style="font-size: 9.0pt; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/estimating-us-recession-risk-using-economic-data-for-states/">https://www.capitalspectator.com/estimating-us-recession-risk-using-economic-data-for-states/</a><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Bottom line<o:p></o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span></i></b><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">The most crowded
trade on earth.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span><a href="https://www.downtownjoshbrown.com/p/crowded-trade-earth">https://www.downtownjoshbrown.com/p/crowded-trade-earth</a><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span></i></b><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">Low volatility and
equity performance.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span></span><span style="font-size: 8.0pt; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><a href="https://blogs.cfainstitute.org/investor/2024/02/16/the-low-volatility-factor-and-occams-razor/?s_cid=eml_Enterprising">https://blogs.cfainstitute.org/investor/2024/02/16/the-low-volatility-factor-and-occams-razor/?s_cid=eml_Enterprising</a><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span></i></b><span style="mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">Where does the trading edge come from?<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span></span><span style="font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><a href="https://traderfeed.blogspot.com/2024/02/where-does-trading-edge-come-from.html">https://traderfeed.blogspot.com/2024/02/where-does-trading-edge-come-from.html</a><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>News on Stocks in Our Portfolios</i></b><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span><o:p></o:p></p>
<div style="background: white; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; margin-left: .5in; margin-right: 0in; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .25pt; mso-element: para-border-div; padding: 0in 0in 0in 25.0pt;">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; border: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .25pt; mso-padding-alt: 0in 0in 0in 25.0pt; padding: 0in;"><span style="color: black;">Expeditors <a href="https://seekingalpha.com/pr/19628254-expeditors-reports-fourth-quarter-2023-eps-of-1_09?hasComeFromMpArticle=false&source=content_type%253Areact%257Csection%253Amain_content%257Cbutton%253Abody_link%257Cfirst_level_url%253Anews" style="--tw-border-spacing-x: 0; --tw-border-spacing-y: 0; --tw-ring-color: #3b82f680; --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; --tw-scale-x: 1; --tw-scale-y: 1; --tw-scroll-snap-strictness: proximity; --tw-shadow-colored: 0 0 #0000; --tw-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-skew-x: 0; --tw-skew-y: 0; --tw-translate-x: 0; --tw-translate-y: 0; background-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0); box-sizing: border-box; color: var(--sa-link-color);" target="_blank"><span style="border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .25pt; padding: 0in;">press release</span></a> (<span class="ticker-hover-wrapper"><span style="border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .25pt; padding: 0in;"><span style="--tw-border-spacing-x: 0; --tw-border-spacing-y: 0; --tw-ring-color: #3b82f680; --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; --tw-scale-x: 1; --tw-scale-y: 1; --tw-scroll-snap-strictness: proximity; --tw-shadow-colored: 0 0 #0000; --tw-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-skew-x: 0; --tw-skew-y: 0; --tw-translate-x: 0; --tw-translate-y: 0; box-sizing: border-box;">NYSE:<a href="https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/EXPD?hasComeFromMpArticle=false&source=content_type%253Areact%257Csection%253Amain_content%257Cbutton%253Abody_link%257Cfirst_level_url%253Anews" style="--tw-border-spacing-x: 0; --tw-border-spacing-y: 0; --tw-ring-color: #3b82f680; --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; --tw-scale-x: 1; --tw-scale-y: 1; --tw-scroll-snap-strictness: proximity; --tw-shadow-colored: 0 0 #0000; --tw-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-skew-x: 0; --tw-skew-y: 0; --tw-translate-x: 0; --tw-translate-y: 0; background-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0); box-sizing: border-box; color: var(--sa-link-color);" title="Expeditors International of Washington, Inc.">EXPD</a></span></span></span>): Q4 GAAP EPS of
$1.09 </span><span style="border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; color: red; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .25pt; padding: 0in;">misses by $0.13</span><span style="color: black;">.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; border: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .25pt; mso-padding-alt: 0in 0in 0in 25.0pt; padding: 0in;"><span style="color: black;">Revenue
of $2.3B (-33.1% Y/Y) </span><span style="border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; color: red; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .25pt; padding: 0in;">misses by $10M</span><span style="color: black;">.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</div>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><u><span style="font-size: 16.0pt;">What
I am reading today</span></u></i></b><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>You
don’t need more how-to advice.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span><a href="https://tim.blog/2024/02/09/harajuku-moment/">https://tim.blog/2024/02/09/harajuku-moment/</a><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 6.0pt;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<div style="border-bottom: dotted windowtext 3.0pt; border: none; mso-element: para-border-div; padding: 0in 0in 1.0pt 0in;">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="border: none; mso-border-bottom-alt: dotted windowtext 3.0pt; mso-padding-alt: 0in 0in 1.0pt 0in; padding: 0in; text-align: justify;"><o:p> </o:p></p>
</div>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-top: 12.0pt; text-align: justify;">Visit Investing
for Survival’s website (<a href="http://investingforsurvival.com/home">http://investingforsurvival.com/home</a>)
to learn more about our Investment Strategy, Prices Disciplines and Subscriber
Service.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-top: 12.0pt; text-align: justify;"><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-top: 12.0pt; text-align: justify;"><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-top: 12.0pt; text-align: justify;"><o:p> </o:p></p>Steven J Cookhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15993653615335271862noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4670837083672737109.post-259973043221121972024-02-20T06:11:00.000-08:002024-02-20T06:11:20.693-08:00Tuesday Morning Chartology<p> </p><div style="border-bottom: dotted windowtext 3.0pt; border: none; mso-element: para-border-div; padding: 0in 0in 1.0pt 0in;">
<p align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="border: none; mso-border-bottom-alt: dotted windowtext 3.0pt; mso-padding-alt: 0in 0in 1.0pt 0in; padding: 0in; text-align: center;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="font-size: 24.0pt;">The Morning Call<o:p></o:p></span></i></b></p>
</div>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;">2/20/24<o:p></o:p></p>
<p align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;"><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><u><span style="font-size: 16.0pt;">The
Market</span></u></i></b><span style="font-size: 16.0pt; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><u>Technical<o:p></o:p></u></i></b></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><u><span style="font-size: 14.0pt;"><o:p><span style="text-decoration: none;"> </span></o:p></span></u></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: .5in; text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">What a week. Plenty
of disappointing news. But the S&P took Tuesday’s gut punch in stride,
closed that gap down open it created, bounced off the lower boundary of its very
short term uptrend, finished in the narrowing range between that very short
term lower boundary and the upper boundary of its short term uptrend and hung
tough through what many experts thought would be a very volatile (to the
downside) option expiration. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: .5in; text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: .5in; text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">That stocks
handled this scenario as well as it did speak to the continuing underlying
strength in the Market. That said, it remains within that narrowing uptrending
wedge; and thus, there is still the possibility of breaking below the lower boundary
of its very short term uptrend and continuing lower. I don’t think that will
occur; but I wouldn’t bet money on it. Indeed, as always, my strategy is to
await follow through. I continue to hold the IWN trading position. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: .5in; text-align: justify;"><a href="https://realinvestmentadvice.com/bull-trend-remains-despite-inflation-scare/?utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Bull%20Trend%20Remains%20Despite%20Inflation%20Scare&utm_content=Bull%20Trend%20Remains%20Despite%20Inflation%20Scare+CID_57faf7b4ad6d1a9669d0126845418708&utm_source=RIA%20Email%20Marketing%20Software&utm_term=SEE%20THE%20ENTIRE%20REPORT%20HERE">Bull
Trend Remains Despite Inflation Scare - RIA (realinvestmentadvice.com)</a><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: .5in; text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span></i></b><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">Where are the new
lows?<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span><a href="https://allstarcharts.com/where-are-the-new-lows/">https://allstarcharts.com/where-are-the-new-lows/</a><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>One
day option traders suddenly became bearish.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span></span><span style="font-size: 10.0pt; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><a href="https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/super-micro-meltdown-3rd-leg-market-melt-stool-breaks">https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/super-micro-meltdown-3rd-leg-market-melt-stool-breaks</a><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 10.0pt; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span></i></b><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">Call options
frenzy.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span></span><span style="font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><a href="https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/if-only-there-were-signs-call-options-frenzy">https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/if-only-there-were-signs-call-options-frenzy</a><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgOf1sND3ldT7a2arYE46D4sE4nHEt3Z5MtonPD2ILRrAz8uKV2fdk1Xbh5BCM0Asb7u0bL8tNK8mqFE44AwOUriiv-S7vt2hHubrDr0iPqmohR2KHwsnJhPAtozBhjyJisQlZ0hMIfYFhVtQA6zwFDZaYcJzpTjKQab85Z0uhRJdb9dVPtcQsR8pkh7ww/s1920/sp21924.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1080" data-original-width="1920" height="360" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgOf1sND3ldT7a2arYE46D4sE4nHEt3Z5MtonPD2ILRrAz8uKV2fdk1Xbh5BCM0Asb7u0bL8tNK8mqFE44AwOUriiv-S7vt2hHubrDr0iPqmohR2KHwsnJhPAtozBhjyJisQlZ0hMIfYFhVtQA6zwFDZaYcJzpTjKQab85Z0uhRJdb9dVPtcQsR8pkh7ww/w640-h360/sp21924.jpg" width="640" /></a></i></b></div><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><br /></i></b><p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: .5in; text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">The long bond was
down again last week. It suggests bond investors are discounting a tighter for
longer Fed. Whether or not that is the same Goldilocks scenario that the stock
boys seem to be betting on is open to question. What isn’t is that TLT made a
new lower low, so the trend is down (higher rates).<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: .5in; text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: .5in; text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgfqgdQ_oILb_24nQObmULMOvaCmAoObKdIHnGesCzEbS79bgMixo625JwpoCqk2XeTMFkMJyyFBzfWe6ygkwWrmax955CR3U0ZFZDWIBZdudAiELSS_SeaRW6TrrTL0d3F_Q6hpjQi3signyLgZ3AsdhDfnJgLaA3ZvBXzFW6qkBnZydUs0EaO9Q1kdBs/s1920/tlt21924.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1080" data-original-width="1920" height="360" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgfqgdQ_oILb_24nQObmULMOvaCmAoObKdIHnGesCzEbS79bgMixo625JwpoCqk2XeTMFkMJyyFBzfWe6ygkwWrmax955CR3U0ZFZDWIBZdudAiELSS_SeaRW6TrrTL0d3F_Q6hpjQi3signyLgZ3AsdhDfnJgLaA3ZvBXzFW6qkBnZydUs0EaO9Q1kdBs/w640-h360/tlt21924.jpg" width="640" /></a></div><br /><p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: .5in; text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: .5in; text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">GLD, like TLT,
made a lower low last week. You would expect that if rates were rising. It
couldn’t hold its 50 DMA and tested (unsuccessfully) its 100 DMA. Longer term, breaking
through the all-time high is now yesterday’s story. I still see no incentive to
dabble.</span><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p></o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: .5in; tab-stops: 60.7pt; text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span><o:p></o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="tab-stops: 60.7pt; text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: .5in; tab-stops: 60.7pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-no-proof: yes;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEitecTD10oVHgRVYojBVXcQiIapermi_i8dEJRGSlRiv64rmc-MJ2zDoWSOg-y4ZZJIREbndE5CmawrOwNMOjqpuZGCqXpGScKHxArHr5k8gi4eTBa6Oqb17C3JZCCWir6X63i-MRagCN8A0LnZu503tx-WdoSCdZKi8Jv_SA-trosiqIwslegs2ZCD8Og/s1920/gld21924.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1080" data-original-width="1920" height="360" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEitecTD10oVHgRVYojBVXcQiIapermi_i8dEJRGSlRiv64rmc-MJ2zDoWSOg-y4ZZJIREbndE5CmawrOwNMOjqpuZGCqXpGScKHxArHr5k8gi4eTBa6Oqb17C3JZCCWir6X63i-MRagCN8A0LnZu503tx-WdoSCdZKi8Jv_SA-trosiqIwslegs2ZCD8Og/w640-h360/gld21924.jpg" width="640" /></a></div><br /> <p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: .5in; tab-stops: 60.7pt; text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: .5in; tab-stops: 60.7pt; text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: .5in; text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: .5in; text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">While the long
term uptrend remains in place, the dollar’s short term technical picture has
been wrecked. To be sure, a gap down open of the order of magnitude shown on
the chart begs to be closed. And that has been what has been happening since
its low in late December. Last week, it easily pushed through its 50 DMA. So,
the short term trend is up---generally not a plus for stocks.</span><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p></o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg542tL7hLb8_xeiqh-sebNu1JVQ4kV37nwAfayUiPBSD9RPoXEoeIHW48pmiddezvoQRSMdHtVGq5pl4Jpktk0rwOrz3s0KqgEmNc8urPEdTg6R6i5faKiUDynCEx3QXPiBDJkoY7e49dLCGCoHRgPKWRiaWjcQmT_h6Zoo8kjFCP-qOqd8vfLSHCM17Y/s1920/uup21924.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1080" data-original-width="1920" height="360" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg542tL7hLb8_xeiqh-sebNu1JVQ4kV37nwAfayUiPBSD9RPoXEoeIHW48pmiddezvoQRSMdHtVGq5pl4Jpktk0rwOrz3s0KqgEmNc8urPEdTg6R6i5faKiUDynCEx3QXPiBDJkoY7e49dLCGCoHRgPKWRiaWjcQmT_h6Zoo8kjFCP-qOqd8vfLSHCM17Y/w640-h360/uup21924.jpg" width="640" /></a></i></b></div><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><br /></i></b><p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span></i></b><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">Friday in the
charts.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span></span><span style="font-size: 9.0pt; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><a href="https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/bitcoin-blasts-euphoric-stocks-do-something-hasnt-happened-52-years">https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/bitcoin-blasts-euphoric-stocks-do-something-hasnt-happened-52-years</a><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></i></b><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><u><span style="font-size: 14.0pt;">Fundamental</span></u></i></b><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Headlines</i></b><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="tab-stops: 41.95pt; text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>The
Economy</i></b><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="tab-stops: 41.95pt; text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="tab-stops: 41.95pt 1.0in 1.5in 2.0in 2.5in center 3.0in; text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 2;"> </span>Week in review<o:p></o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="tab-stops: 41.95pt 1.0in 1.5in 2.0in 2.5in center 3.0in; text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 1.0in; tab-stops: 41.95pt 1.0in 1.5in 2.0in 2.5in center 3.0in; text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">The stats in the
US were terrible as were the primary indicators (no positive or neutral and five
negative). Making matters worse, those primary indicators showed growth slowing
and inflation rising. To be sure the CPI number was something of an anomaly;
but PPI wasn’t. And unfortunately PPI tends to foreshadow CPI. Meaning expect a
poor future CPI that isn’t an anomaly. Clearly, this is an abrupt and
disappointing break to the nascent trend of upbeat readings. Doesn’t mean that it
is over; but this is certainly no positive. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 1.0in; tab-stops: 41.95pt 1.0in 1.5in 2.0in 2.5in center 3.0in; text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 1.0in; tab-stops: 41.95pt 1.0in 1.5in 2.0in 2.5in center 3.0in; text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">Two issues:<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 1.0in; tab-stops: 41.95pt 1.0in 1.5in 2.0in 2.5in center 3.0in; text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 1.0in; tab-stops: 41.95pt 1.0in 1.5in 2.0in 2.5in center 3.0in; text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">First, at least
for me, is that inflation may not be behind us as I had thought which means the
Fed (if you believe its current narrative) could stay tighter for even longer
keeping the risk of recession omnipresent for much longer. </span><span style="font-size: 10.0pt; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 1.0in; tab-stops: 41.95pt 1.0in 1.5in 2.0in 2.5in center 3.0in; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 10.0pt; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 1.0in; tab-stops: 41.95pt 1.0in 1.5in 2.0in 2.5in center 3.0in; text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">On the other hand,
if you are a cynic like me, you can’t help but think that the Fed will ease (for
political reasons) whether it has conquered inflation or not. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 1.0in; tab-stops: 41.95pt; text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 1.0in; tab-stops: 41.95pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">Second, I (and most
of the rest of the universe) believed that we were getting clarity on the question
of recession/landing, i.e., that the economy would avoid a hard landing. Last
week’s stats certainly raises doubts.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 1.0in; tab-stops: 41.95pt; text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 1.0in; tab-stops: 41.95pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">Bottom line:<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 1.0in; tab-stops: 41.95pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoListParagraph" style="margin-left: 1.25in; mso-add-space: auto; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; tab-stops: 41.95pt; text-align: justify; text-indent: -.25in;"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">(1)<span style="font: 7.0pt "Times New Roman";">
</span></span></span><!--[endif]--><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">Unfortunately, the inflation risk may not be behind
us as per my current forecast. I am not altering it yet but clearly it is now
in question. And any further data suggesting that it is not will likely prompt
a change. That, in turn, would amplify the impact of a grossly irresponsible
fiscal policy which if left unresolved will ultimately push interest rates and
inflation to even higher levels, risking a tighter monetary policy and impeding
the economy’s ability to grow.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="tab-stops: 41.95pt; text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 2;"> </span></span></b><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span><span style="font-size: 9.0pt; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpFirst" style="margin-left: 1.25in; mso-add-space: auto; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; tab-stops: 41.95pt; text-align: justify; text-indent: -.25in;"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">(2)<span style="font: 7.0pt "Times New Roman";"> </span></span></span><!--[endif]--><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">Just as unfortunate,
the</span><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"> </span></i><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">question of recession [what kind of landing] which appeared to be
gaining clarity, also suffered a setback. Of course, my forecast had been for
some type of growth problem which I was considering changing. Last week’s stats
increases my hesitation to do so. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpLast"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 1.0in; tab-stops: 41.95pt 1.0in 1.5in 2.0in 2.5in center 3.0in; text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>A more sanguine take on last week’s
retail sales number.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 1.0in; tab-stops: 41.95pt 1.0in 1.5in 2.0in 2.5in center 3.0in; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 6.0pt; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><a href="https://wolfstreet.com/2024/02/15/it-sucks-being-a-retailer-in-january-and-february-but-do-retail-sales-show-consumers-cut-back/">https://wolfstreet.com/2024/02/15/it-sucks-being-a-retailer-in-january-and-february-but-do-retail-sales-show-consumers-cut-back/</a><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 1.0in; tab-stops: 41.95pt 1.0in 1.5in 2.0in 2.5in center 3.0in; text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 1.0in; tab-stops: 41.95pt 1.0in 1.5in 2.0in 2.5in center 3.0in; text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Another positive take on the data.</span><span style="font-size: 7.0pt; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 1.0in; tab-stops: 41.95pt 1.0in 1.5in 2.0in 2.5in center 3.0in; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 7.0pt; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><a href="https://www.wsj.com/economy/americas-economy-slowedit-probably-wont-stumble-e9661630?mod=economy_lead_story">https://www.wsj.com/economy/americas-economy-slowedit-probably-wont-stumble-e9661630?mod=economy_lead_story</a><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpFirst" style="margin-left: 1.25in; mso-add-space: auto;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="margin-left: 1.25in; mso-add-space: auto;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">And
still no overall sign of recession.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpLast" style="margin-left: 1.25in; mso-add-space: auto;"><span style="font-size: 9.0pt; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/moderate-slowdown-expected-for-us-q1-gdp-growth/">https://www.capitalspectator.com/moderate-slowdown-expected-for-us-q1-gdp-growth/</a><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="tab-stops: 75.2pt; text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="font-size: 8.0pt;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span></span><o:p></o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="tab-stops: 41.95pt; text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 2;"> </span>US</i></b><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 7.0pt; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 6.0pt; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>International</i></b><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 78.0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">December YoY EU
construction output was up 1.9% versus consensus of -2.3%.</span><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 2;"> </span> <o:p></o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>Other<o:p></o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>Recession<o:p></o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></i></b><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">Another crack in the commercial real estate
market.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><a href="https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/cracks-another-corner-cre-market">https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/cracks-another-corner-cre-market</a><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-indent: .5in;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Bottom line.<o:p></o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span></i></b><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">A macro guide to the
Mag 7.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span></span><span style="font-size: 9.0pt; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><a href="https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/most-concentrated-market-history-macro-guide-magnificent-7-13-charts">https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/most-concentrated-market-history-macro-guide-magnificent-7-13-charts</a><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-indent: .5in;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>News on Stocks in Our Portfolios</i></b><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span><o:p></o:p></p>
<div style="background: white; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; margin-left: .5in; margin-right: 0in; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .25pt; mso-element: para-border-div; padding: 0in 0in 0in 25.0pt;">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; border: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .25pt; mso-padding-alt: 0in 0in 0in 25.0pt; padding: 0in;"><span style="color: black;">Home
Depot <a href="https://ir.homedepot.com/~/media/Files/H/HomeDepot-IR/press-release/q4-2023-earning-release.pdf" style="--tw-border-spacing-x: 0; --tw-border-spacing-y: 0; --tw-ring-color: #3b82f680; --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; --tw-scale-x: 1; --tw-scale-y: 1; --tw-scroll-snap-strictness: proximity; --tw-shadow-colored: 0 0 #0000; --tw-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-skew-x: 0; --tw-skew-y: 0; --tw-translate-x: 0; --tw-translate-y: 0; background-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0); box-sizing: border-box; color: var(--sa-link-color);" target="_blank"><span style="border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .25pt; padding: 0in;">press release</span></a> (<span class="ticker-hover-wrapper"><span style="border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .25pt; padding: 0in;"><span style="--tw-border-spacing-x: 0; --tw-border-spacing-y: 0; --tw-ring-color: #3b82f680; --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; --tw-scale-x: 1; --tw-scale-y: 1; --tw-scroll-snap-strictness: proximity; --tw-shadow-colored: 0 0 #0000; --tw-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-skew-x: 0; --tw-skew-y: 0; --tw-translate-x: 0; --tw-translate-y: 0; box-sizing: border-box;">NYSE:<a href="https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/HD?hasComeFromMpArticle=false&source=content_type%253Areact%257Csection%253Amain_content%257Cbutton%253Abody_link%257Cfirst_level_url%253Anews" style="--tw-border-spacing-x: 0; --tw-border-spacing-y: 0; --tw-ring-color: #3b82f680; --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; --tw-scale-x: 1; --tw-scale-y: 1; --tw-scroll-snap-strictness: proximity; --tw-shadow-colored: 0 0 #0000; --tw-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-skew-x: 0; --tw-skew-y: 0; --tw-translate-x: 0; --tw-translate-y: 0; background-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0); box-sizing: border-box; color: var(--sa-link-color);" title="The Home Depot, Inc.">HD</a></span></span></span>): Q4 GAAP EPS of $2.82 <span class="green"><span style="border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .25pt; padding: 0in;"><span style="--tw-border-spacing-x: 0; --tw-border-spacing-y: 0; --tw-ring-color: #3b82f680; --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; --tw-scale-x: 1; --tw-scale-y: 1; --tw-scroll-snap-strictness: proximity; --tw-shadow-colored: 0 0 #0000; --tw-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-skew-x: 0; --tw-skew-y: 0; --tw-translate-x: 0; --tw-translate-y: 0; box-sizing: border-box; color: var(--teal-100);">beats by
$0.04</span></span></span>.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; border: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .25pt; mso-padding-alt: 0in 0in 0in 25.0pt; padding: 0in;"><span style="color: black;">Revenue
of $34.79B (-2.9% Y/Y) <span class="green"><span style="border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .25pt; padding: 0in;"><span style="--tw-border-spacing-x: 0; --tw-border-spacing-y: 0; --tw-ring-color: #3b82f680; --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; --tw-scale-x: 1; --tw-scale-y: 1; --tw-scroll-snap-strictness: proximity; --tw-shadow-colored: 0 0 #0000; --tw-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-skew-x: 0; --tw-skew-y: 0; --tw-translate-x: 0; --tw-translate-y: 0; box-sizing: border-box; color: var(--teal-100);">beats by
$120M</span></span></span>.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; border: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .25pt; mso-padding-alt: 0in 0in 0in 25.0pt; padding: 0in;"><span style="color: black;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; border: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .25pt; mso-padding-alt: 0in 0in 0in 25.0pt; padding: 0in;"><span style="color: black;">Home
Depot (<span class="ticker-hover-wrapper"><span style="border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .25pt; padding: 0in;"><span style="--tw-border-spacing-x: 0; --tw-border-spacing-y: 0; --tw-ring-color: #3b82f680; --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; --tw-scale-x: 1; --tw-scale-y: 1; --tw-scroll-snap-strictness: proximity; --tw-shadow-colored: 0 0 #0000; --tw-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-skew-x: 0; --tw-skew-y: 0; --tw-translate-x: 0; --tw-translate-y: 0; box-sizing: border-box;">NYSE:<a href="https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/HD?hasComeFromMpArticle=false&source=content_type%253Areact%257Csection%253Amain_content%257Cbutton%253Abody_link%257Cfirst_level_url%253Anews" style="--tw-border-spacing-x: 0; --tw-border-spacing-y: 0; --tw-ring-color: #3b82f680; --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; --tw-scale-x: 1; --tw-scale-y: 1; --tw-scroll-snap-strictness: proximity; --tw-shadow-colored: 0 0 #0000; --tw-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-skew-x: 0; --tw-skew-y: 0; --tw-translate-x: 0; --tw-translate-y: 0; background-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0); box-sizing: border-box; color: var(--sa-link-color);" title="The Home Depot, Inc.">HD</a></span></span></span>) declares <a href="https://ir.homedepot.com/~/media/Files/H/HomeDepot-IR/press-release/q4-2023-earning-release.pdf" style="--tw-border-spacing-x: 0; --tw-border-spacing-y: 0; --tw-ring-color: #3b82f680; --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; --tw-scale-x: 1; --tw-scale-y: 1; --tw-scroll-snap-strictness: proximity; --tw-shadow-colored: 0 0 #0000; --tw-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-skew-x: 0; --tw-skew-y: 0; --tw-translate-x: 0; --tw-translate-y: 0; background-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0); box-sizing: border-box; color: var(--sa-link-color);" target="_blank"><span style="border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .25pt; padding: 0in;">$2.25/share quarterly
dividend</span></a>, </span><span style="border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; color: green; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .25pt; padding: 0in;">7.7% increase</span><span style="color: black;"> from prior dividend of $2.09.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; border: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .25pt; mso-padding-alt: 0in 0in 0in 25.0pt; padding: 0in;"><span style="color: black;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; border: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .25pt; mso-padding-alt: 0in 0in 0in 25.0pt; padding: 0in;"><span style="color: black;">FedEx
(<span class="ticker-hover-wrapper"><span style="border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .25pt; padding: 0in;"><span style="--tw-border-spacing-x: 0; --tw-border-spacing-y: 0; --tw-ring-color: #3b82f680; --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; --tw-scale-x: 1; --tw-scale-y: 1; --tw-scroll-snap-strictness: proximity; --tw-shadow-colored: 0 0 #0000; --tw-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-skew-x: 0; --tw-skew-y: 0; --tw-translate-x: 0; --tw-translate-y: 0; box-sizing: border-box;">NYSE:<a href="https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/FDX?hasComeFromMpArticle=false&source=content_type%253Areact%257Csection%253Amain_content%257Cbutton%253Abody_link%257Cfirst_level_url%253Anews" style="--tw-border-spacing-x: 0; --tw-border-spacing-y: 0; --tw-ring-color: #3b82f680; --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; --tw-scale-x: 1; --tw-scale-y: 1; --tw-scroll-snap-strictness: proximity; --tw-shadow-colored: 0 0 #0000; --tw-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-skew-x: 0; --tw-skew-y: 0; --tw-translate-x: 0; --tw-translate-y: 0; background-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0); box-sizing: border-box; color: var(--sa-link-color);" title="FedEx Corporation">FDX</a></span></span></span>) declared <a href="https://seekingalpha.com/pr/19626567-fedex-corp-board-declares-quarterly-dividend?hasComeFromMpArticle=false&source=content_type%253Areact%257Csection%253Amain_content%257Cbutton%253Abody_link%257Cfirst_level_url%253Anews" style="--tw-border-spacing-x: 0; --tw-border-spacing-y: 0; --tw-ring-color: #3b82f680; --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; --tw-scale-x: 1; --tw-scale-y: 1; --tw-scroll-snap-strictness: proximity; --tw-shadow-colored: 0 0 #0000; --tw-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-skew-x: 0; --tw-skew-y: 0; --tw-translate-x: 0; --tw-translate-y: 0; background-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0); box-sizing: border-box; color: var(--sa-link-color);" target="_blank"><span style="border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .25pt; padding: 0in;">$1.26/share quarterly
dividend</span></a>, in line with previous.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</div>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><u><span style="font-size: 16.0pt;">What
I am reading today</span></u></i></b><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>A
must read article on Hayek and his critique of big government.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span><a href="https://lawliberty.org/still-trudging-towards-serfdom/">https://lawliberty.org/still-trudging-towards-serfdom/</a><o:p></o:p></p>
<div style="border-bottom: dotted windowtext 3.0pt; border: none; mso-element: para-border-div; padding: 0in 0in 1.0pt 0in;">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="border: none; mso-border-bottom-alt: dotted windowtext 3.0pt; mso-padding-alt: 0in 0in 1.0pt 0in; padding: 0in; text-align: justify;"><o:p> </o:p></p>
</div>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-top: 12.0pt; text-align: justify;">Visit Investing
for Survival’s website (<a href="http://investingforsurvival.com/home">http://investingforsurvival.com/home</a>)
to learn more about our Investment Strategy, Prices Disciplines and Subscriber
Service.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-top: 12.0pt; text-align: justify;"><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-top: 12.0pt; text-align: justify;"><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-top: 12.0pt; text-align: justify;"><o:p> </o:p></p>Steven J Cookhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15993653615335271862noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4670837083672737109.post-90796383667674563862024-02-16T06:20:00.000-08:002024-02-16T06:20:22.498-08:00The Morning Call--Options expiration<p> </p><div style="border-bottom: dotted windowtext 3.0pt; border: none; mso-element: para-border-div; padding: 0in 0in 1.0pt 0in;">
<p align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="border: none; mso-border-bottom-alt: dotted windowtext 3.0pt; mso-padding-alt: 0in 0in 1.0pt 0in; padding: 0in; text-align: center;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="font-size: 24.0pt;">The Morning Call<o:p></o:p></span></i></b></p>
</div>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;">2/16/24<o:p></o:p></p>
<p align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;"><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><u><span style="font-size: 16.0pt;">The
Market</span></u></i></b><span style="font-size: 16.0pt; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><u>Technical</u></i></b></span><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span></i></b><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">Thursday in the
charts.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span></span><span style="font-size: 7.0pt; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><a href="https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/stocks-squeeze-pre-cpi-highs-dismal-data-bonds-bitcoin-bullion-black-gold-all-bounce">https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/stocks-squeeze-pre-cpi-highs-dismal-data-bonds-bitcoin-bullion-black-gold-all-bounce</a><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span></i></b><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">A breather is warranted.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span></span><span style="font-size: 7.0pt; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><a href="https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/breather-warranted-likely-goldman-warns-stocks-might-be-nearing-point-irrational-exuberance">https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/breather-warranted-likely-goldman-warns-stocks-might-be-nearing-point-irrational-exuberance</a><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span></i></b><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">Goldman on
February options expiration.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span></span><span style="font-size: 7.0pt; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><a href="https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/24-trillion-options-expire-friday-sending-dealer-gamma-crashing-90-what-means-stocks">https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/24-trillion-options-expire-friday-sending-dealer-gamma-crashing-90-what-means-stocks</a><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></i></b><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><u><span style="font-size: 14.0pt;">Fundamental</span></u></i></b><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Headlines</i></b><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="tab-stops: 41.95pt; text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>The
Economy</i></b><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="tab-stops: 41.95pt; text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="tab-stops: 41.95pt; text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>US</i></b><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 78.0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">January industrial
production fell 0.1% versus estimates of up 0.3%; capacity utilization was
78.5% versus 78.8%.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 78.0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 78.0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">January PPI was up
0.3% versus forecasts of +0.1%; ex food and energy, it was up 0.6% versus +0.1%;
core PPI was up 0.5% versus +0.1%.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 78.0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 8.0pt; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><a href="https://www.zerohedge.com/personal-finance/producer-prices-surged-january-services-costs-soared">https://www.zerohedge.com/personal-finance/producer-prices-surged-january-services-costs-soared</a><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 78.0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 8.0pt; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 78.0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">January building
permits fell 1.5% versus predictions of +0.7%.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 78.0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 78.0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">The February housing
index was 48.0 versus projections of 46.0.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 2;"> </span></i></b><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span><span style="font-size: 6.0pt; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><a href="https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2024/02/15/nahb-housing-market-index-builder-confidence-rises-for-third-straight-month">https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2024/02/15/nahb-housing-market-index-builder-confidence-rises-for-third-straight-month</a><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 6.0pt; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>International</i></b><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 2;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></i></b><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">January UK retail sales rose 3.4% versus consensus
of +1.5%.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 2;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>January German PPI was +0.1% versus
expectations of +0.3%.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>Recession<o:p></o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></i></b><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">The impact of declining real estate values on
small banks.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-indent: .5in;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span><span style="font-size: 6.0pt; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-02-15/which-banks-may-face-scrutiny-of-commercial-real-estate-exposure?srnd=premium&sref=loFkkPMQ">https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-02-15/which-banks-may-face-scrutiny-of-commercial-real-estate-exposure?srnd=premium&sref=loFkkPMQ</a><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 6.0pt; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>The
Bond Market<o:p></o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span></i></b><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The yield curve bear steepening spells
trouble for the Markets.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span><span style="font-size: 10.0pt; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><a href="https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/yield-curve-bear-steepening-spells-trouble-markets">https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/yield-curve-bear-steepening-spells-trouble-markets</a><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Bottom line<o:p></o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: .5in; text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">For the bulls. This
argument is like telling a 400 lb. man that his not nearly as fat as a 500 lb.
man.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span><a href="https://finance.yahoo.com/news/p-500-climb-another-25-042831789.html">https://finance.yahoo.com/news/p-500-climb-another-25-042831789.html</a><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span></i></b><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">Which economic surprises
matter?<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span><a href="https://klementoninvesting.substack.com/p/which-economic-surprises-matter">https://klementoninvesting.substack.com/p/which-economic-surprises-matter</a><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span><o:p></o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>News on Stocks in Our Portfolios</i></b><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span><o:p></o:p></p>
<div style="background: white; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; margin-left: .5in; margin-right: 0in; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .25pt; mso-element: para-border-div; padding: 0in 0in 0in 25.0pt;">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; border: none; margin-bottom: 15.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .25pt; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-padding-alt: 0in 0in 0in 25.0pt; padding: 0in;"><span style="color: black;">AbbVie (<span class="ticker-hover-wrapper"><span style="border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .25pt; padding: 0in;"><span style="--tw-border-spacing-x: 0; --tw-border-spacing-y: 0; --tw-ring-color: #3b82f680; --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; --tw-scale-x: 1; --tw-scale-y: 1; --tw-scroll-snap-strictness: proximity; --tw-shadow-colored: 0 0 #0000; --tw-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-skew-x: 0; --tw-skew-y: 0; --tw-translate-x: 0; --tw-translate-y: 0; box-sizing: border-box;">NYSE:<a href="https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/ABBV?hasComeFromMpArticle=false&source=content_type%253Areact%257Csection%253Amain_content%257Cbutton%253Abody_link%257Cfirst_level_url%253Anews" style="--tw-border-spacing-x: 0; --tw-border-spacing-y: 0; --tw-ring-color: #3b82f680; --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; --tw-scale-x: 1; --tw-scale-y: 1; --tw-scroll-snap-strictness: proximity; --tw-shadow-colored: 0 0 #0000; --tw-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-skew-x: 0; --tw-skew-y: 0; --tw-translate-x: 0; --tw-translate-y: 0; background-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0); box-sizing: border-box; color: var(--sa-link-color);" title="AbbVie Inc."><span style="text-decoration: none; text-underline: none;">ABBV</span></a></span></span></span>) declares <a href="https://seekingalpha.com/pr/19625655-abbvie-declares-quarterly-dividend?hasComeFromMpArticle=false&source=content_type%253Areact%257Csection%253Amain_content%257Cbutton%253Abody_link%257Cfirst_level_url%253Anews" style="--tw-border-spacing-x: 0; --tw-border-spacing-y: 0; --tw-ring-color: #3b82f680; --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; --tw-scale-x: 1; --tw-scale-y: 1; --tw-scroll-snap-strictness: proximity; --tw-shadow-colored: 0 0 #0000; --tw-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-skew-x: 0; --tw-skew-y: 0; --tw-translate-x: 0; --tw-translate-y: 0; background-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0); box-sizing: border-box; color: var(--sa-link-color);" target="_blank"><span style="border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .25pt; padding: 0in; text-decoration: none; text-underline: none;">$1.55/share quarterly dividend</span></a>, in line with
previous.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</div>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><u><span style="font-size: 16.0pt;">What
I am reading today</span></u></i></b><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span><span style="font-size: 6.0pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 6.0pt;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<div style="border-bottom: dotted windowtext 3.0pt; border: none; mso-element: para-border-div; padding: 0in 0in 1.0pt 0in;">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="border: none; mso-border-bottom-alt: dotted windowtext 3.0pt; mso-padding-alt: 0in 0in 1.0pt 0in; padding: 0in; text-align: justify;"><o:p> </o:p></p>
</div>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-top: 12.0pt; text-align: justify;">Visit Investing
for Survival’s website (<a href="http://investingforsurvival.com/home">http://investingforsurvival.com/home</a>)
to learn more about our Investment Strategy, Prices Disciplines and Subscriber
Service.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-top: 12.0pt; text-align: justify;"><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-top: 12.0pt; text-align: justify;"><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-top: 12.0pt; text-align: justify;"><o:p> </o:p></p>Steven J Cookhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15993653615335271862noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4670837083672737109.post-72137187933061638462024-02-15T06:09:00.000-08:002024-02-15T06:09:50.335-08:00The Morning Call---Huge data dump this morning<p> </p><div style="border-bottom: dotted windowtext 3.0pt; border: none; mso-element: para-border-div; padding: 0in 0in 1.0pt 0in;">
<p align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="border: none; mso-border-bottom-alt: dotted windowtext 3.0pt; mso-padding-alt: 0in 0in 1.0pt 0in; padding: 0in; text-align: center;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="font-size: 24.0pt;">The Morning Call<o:p></o:p></span></i></b></p>
</div>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;">2/15/24<o:p></o:p></p>
<p align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;"><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><u><span style="font-size: 16.0pt;">The
Market</span></u></i></b><span style="font-size: 16.0pt; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><u>Technical</u></i></b></span><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span></i></b><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">Wednesday in the
charts.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span></span><span style="font-size: 8.0pt; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><a href="https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/traders-fall-bank-love-stocks-bonds-after-terrible-tuesday-bitcoin-breaks-above-50k">https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/traders-fall-bank-love-stocks-bonds-after-terrible-tuesday-bitcoin-breaks-above-50k</a><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: .5in; text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">Note: stocks
rebounded yesterday. The S&P bounced off the lower boundary of its very
short term uptrend and regained the magic 5000 level. Further, it remained in a
rising wedge pattern formed by the lower boundary of that very short term
uptrend and the upper boundary of its short term uptrend. Historically, those
type formations are usually resolved to the upside.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span></i></b><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">VIX seasonality.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span><a href="https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/vix-seasonality-2">https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/vix-seasonality-2</a><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></i></b><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><u><span style="font-size: 14.0pt;">Fundamental</span></u></i></b><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Headlines</i></b><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="tab-stops: 41.95pt; text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>The
Economy</i></b><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="tab-stops: 41.95pt; text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="tab-stops: 41.95pt; text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>US</i></b><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 78.0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">Weekly initial jobless
claims totaled 212,000 versus predictions of 220,000.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 2;"> </span></i></b><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span><span style="font-size: 6.0pt; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><a href="https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/despite-ongoing-mass-corporate-layoffs-govt-supplied-jobless-claims-data-continues-decline">https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/despite-ongoing-mass-corporate-layoffs-govt-supplied-jobless-claims-data-continues-decline</a><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 6.0pt; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 78.0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">December PPI came
in at -0.2% versus consensus of -0.1%; core PPI was -0.1% versus 0.0%.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 78.0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 78.0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">January retail sales
were down 0.8% versus expectations of -0.1%; ex autos, they were -0.6% versus
+0.2%.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 78.0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 7.0pt; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><a href="https://www.zerohedge.com/personal-finance/us-retail-sales-plunged-january-worst-yoy-growth-covid-lockdown">https://www.zerohedge.com/personal-finance/us-retail-sales-plunged-january-worst-yoy-growth-covid-lockdown</a><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 78.0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 7.0pt; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 78.0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">The February NY
Fed manufacturing index was -2.4 versus estimates of -15.0; the February Philadelphia
Fed manufacturing index was +5.2 versus -0.8.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>International</i></b><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 78.0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">Q4 preliminary
Japanese GDP growth was -0.1% versus projections of +0.3%; Q4 preliminary
capital expenditures were -0.1% versus +0.3%; Q4 preliminary private consumption
was -0.2% versus +0.1%; December industrial production was +1.4% versus +1.8%;
December capacity utilization was -0.1% versus +0.4%.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 78.0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 78.0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">Q4 preliminary UK
GDP growth was -0.3% versus forecasts of -0.1%; Q4 preliminary business
investment was +1.5% versus -0.1%; December industrial production was +0.6%
versus -0.1%; the December trade balance was -L2.6 billion versus -L1.9
billion; December YoY construction orders were down 30.2% versus +5.0%.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 78.0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 78.0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">The December EU
trade balance was +E16.8 billion versus predictions of +E21.5 billion.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>Other</i></b><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>Fiscal
Policy<o:p></o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></i></b><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">A billion here, a billion there and pretty
soon you are talking real money.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><a href="https://nalert.blogspot.com/2024/02/senators-smuggle-migration-funds-into.html">https://nalert.blogspot.com/2024/02/senators-smuggle-migration-funds-into.html</a><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>Inflation<o:p></o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></i></b><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">A look at the ‘owners’ equivalent rent’ calculation
in CPI.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span><span style="font-size: 8.0pt; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><a href="https://investorplace.com/hypergrowthinvesting/2024/02/why-todays-inflation-driven-flush-comes-at-the-perfect-time/">https://investorplace.com/hypergrowthinvesting/2024/02/why-todays-inflation-driven-flush-comes-at-the-perfect-time/</a><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></i></b><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">More.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><a href="https://scottgrannis.blogspot.com/2024/02/the-cpi-overshoot-is-statistical.html">https://scottgrannis.blogspot.com/2024/02/the-cpi-overshoot-is-statistical.html</a><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></i></b><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">The cost of car ownership is getting painful.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span><span style="font-size: 6.0pt; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><a href="https://www.wsj.com/personal-finance/inflation-car-prices-ownership-insurance-7cac91f1?st=1vl1nwl7qar8heo&reflink=desktopwebshare_permalink">https://www.wsj.com/personal-finance/inflation-car-prices-ownership-insurance-7cac91f1?st=1vl1nwl7qar8heo&reflink=desktopwebshare_permalink</a><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>Recession<o:p></o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></i></b><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">Total US trade with the rest of the world
shrank in 2023.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span><span style="font-size: 10.0pt; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><a href="https://politicalcalculations.blogspot.com/2024/02/total-us-trade-with-world-shrank-in-2023.html">https://politicalcalculations.blogspot.com/2024/02/total-us-trade-with-world-shrank-in-2023.html</a><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></i></b><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">The brutal reality of plunging office values.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span><span style="font-size: 6.0pt; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2024-02-14/real-estate-lenders-confront-falling-us-commercial-property-prices?srnd=premium&sref=loFkkPMQ">https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2024-02-14/real-estate-lenders-confront-falling-us-commercial-property-prices?srnd=premium&sref=loFkkPMQ</a><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span></i></b><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Economists sounding alarm over consumer credit
bubble.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span><span style="font-size: 10.0pt; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><a href="https://www.zerohedge.com/personal-finance/economists-are-sounding-alarm-yolo-credit-bubble">https://www.zerohedge.com/personal-finance/economists-are-sounding-alarm-yolo-credit-bubble</a><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 10.0pt; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Bottom line<o:p></o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span></i></b><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">Prepare for a
correction.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span></span><span style="font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><a href="https://www.riskhedge.com/outplacement/prepare-for-a-stock-market-correction1/rcm">https://www.riskhedge.com/outplacement/prepare-for-a-stock-market-correction1/rcm</a><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="font-size: 11.0pt;"><o:p> </o:p></span></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span></i></b><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">How often do bear
markets occur?<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span><a href="https://awealthofcommonsense.com/2024/02/how-often-do-bear-markets-occur/">https://awealthofcommonsense.com/2024/02/how-often-do-bear-markets-occur/</a><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span></i></b><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">The most costly
investment mistake that you can easily avoid.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: .5in; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 6.0pt; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2024-02-14/the-most-costly-investment-mistake-you-can-make-is-easy-to-avoid?srnd=premium&embedded-checkout=true&sref=loFkkPMQ">https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2024-02-14/the-most-costly-investment-mistake-you-can-make-is-easy-to-avoid?srnd=premium&embedded-checkout=true&sref=loFkkPMQ</a><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 6.0pt; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>News on Stocks in Our Portfolios</i></b><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span><o:p></o:p></p>
<div style="background: white; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; margin-left: .5in; margin-right: 0in; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .25pt; mso-element: para-border-div; padding: 0in 0in 0in 25.0pt;">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; border: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .25pt; mso-padding-alt: 0in 0in 0in 25.0pt; padding: 0in;"><span style="color: black;">Cisco <a href="https://seekingalpha.com/pr/19624143-cisco-reports-second-quarter-earnings?hasComeFromMpArticle=false&source=content_type%253Areact%257Csection%253Amain_content%257Cbutton%253Abody_link%257Cfirst_level_url%253Anews" style="--tw-border-spacing-x: 0; --tw-border-spacing-y: 0; --tw-ring-color: #3b82f680; --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; --tw-scale-x: 1; --tw-scale-y: 1; --tw-scroll-snap-strictness: proximity; --tw-shadow-colored: 0 0 #0000; --tw-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-skew-x: 0; --tw-skew-y: 0; --tw-translate-x: 0; --tw-translate-y: 0; background-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0); box-sizing: border-box; color: var(--sa-link-color);" target="_blank"><span style="border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .25pt; padding: 0in;">press release</span></a> (<span class="ticker-hover-wrapper"><span style="border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .25pt; padding: 0in;"><span style="--tw-border-spacing-x: 0; --tw-border-spacing-y: 0; --tw-ring-color: #3b82f680; --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; --tw-scale-x: 1; --tw-scale-y: 1; --tw-scroll-snap-strictness: proximity; --tw-shadow-colored: 0 0 #0000; --tw-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-skew-x: 0; --tw-skew-y: 0; --tw-translate-x: 0; --tw-translate-y: 0; box-sizing: border-box;">NASDAQ:<a href="https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/CSCO?hasComeFromMpArticle=false&source=content_type%253Areact%257Csection%253Amain_content%257Cbutton%253Abody_link%257Cfirst_level_url%253Anews" style="--tw-border-spacing-x: 0; --tw-border-spacing-y: 0; --tw-ring-color: #3b82f680; --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; --tw-scale-x: 1; --tw-scale-y: 1; --tw-scroll-snap-strictness: proximity; --tw-shadow-colored: 0 0 #0000; --tw-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-skew-x: 0; --tw-skew-y: 0; --tw-translate-x: 0; --tw-translate-y: 0; background-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0); box-sizing: border-box; color: var(--sa-link-color);" title="Cisco Systems, Inc.">CSCO</a></span></span></span>): Q2 Non-GAAP EPS of
$0.87 <span class="green"><span style="border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .25pt; padding: 0in;"><span style="--tw-border-spacing-x: 0; --tw-border-spacing-y: 0; --tw-ring-color: #3b82f680; --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; --tw-scale-x: 1; --tw-scale-y: 1; --tw-scroll-snap-strictness: proximity; --tw-shadow-colored: 0 0 #0000; --tw-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-skew-x: 0; --tw-skew-y: 0; --tw-translate-x: 0; --tw-translate-y: 0; box-sizing: border-box; color: var(--teal-100);">beats by
$0.03</span></span></span>.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; border: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .25pt; mso-padding-alt: 0in 0in 0in 25.0pt; padding: 0in;"><span style="color: black;">Revenue
of $12.8B (-5.9% Y/Y) <span class="green"><span style="border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .25pt; padding: 0in;"><span style="--tw-border-spacing-x: 0; --tw-border-spacing-y: 0; --tw-ring-color: #3b82f680; --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; --tw-scale-x: 1; --tw-scale-y: 1; --tw-scroll-snap-strictness: proximity; --tw-shadow-colored: 0 0 #0000; --tw-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-skew-x: 0; --tw-skew-y: 0; --tw-translate-x: 0; --tw-translate-y: 0; box-sizing: border-box; color: var(--teal-100);">beats by
$100M</span></span></span>.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; border: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .25pt; mso-padding-alt: 0in 0in 0in 25.0pt; padding: 0in;"><span style="color: black;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; border: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .25pt; mso-padding-alt: 0in 0in 0in 25.0pt; padding: 0in;"><span style="color: black;">Genuine
Parts <a href="https://seekingalpha.com/pr/19624668-genuine-parts-company-reports-fourth-quarter-and-full-year-2023-results?hasComeFromMpArticle=false&source=content_type%253Areact%257Csection%253Amain_content%257Cbutton%253Abody_link%257Cfirst_level_url%253Anews" style="--tw-border-spacing-x: 0; --tw-border-spacing-y: 0; --tw-ring-color: #3b82f680; --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; --tw-scale-x: 1; --tw-scale-y: 1; --tw-scroll-snap-strictness: proximity; --tw-shadow-colored: 0 0 #0000; --tw-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-skew-x: 0; --tw-skew-y: 0; --tw-translate-x: 0; --tw-translate-y: 0; background-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0); box-sizing: border-box; color: var(--sa-link-color);" target="_blank"><span style="border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .25pt; padding: 0in;">press release</span></a> (<span class="ticker-hover-wrapper"><span style="border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .25pt; padding: 0in;"><span style="--tw-border-spacing-x: 0; --tw-border-spacing-y: 0; --tw-ring-color: #3b82f680; --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; --tw-scale-x: 1; --tw-scale-y: 1; --tw-scroll-snap-strictness: proximity; --tw-shadow-colored: 0 0 #0000; --tw-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-skew-x: 0; --tw-skew-y: 0; --tw-translate-x: 0; --tw-translate-y: 0; box-sizing: border-box;">NYSE:<a href="https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/GPC?hasComeFromMpArticle=false&source=content_type%253Areact%257Csection%253Amain_content%257Cbutton%253Abody_link%257Cfirst_level_url%253Anews" style="--tw-border-spacing-x: 0; --tw-border-spacing-y: 0; --tw-ring-color: #3b82f680; --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; --tw-scale-x: 1; --tw-scale-y: 1; --tw-scroll-snap-strictness: proximity; --tw-shadow-colored: 0 0 #0000; --tw-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-skew-x: 0; --tw-skew-y: 0; --tw-translate-x: 0; --tw-translate-y: 0; background-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0); box-sizing: border-box; color: var(--sa-link-color);" title="Genuine Parts Company">GPC</a></span></span></span>): Q4 Non-GAAP EPS of
$2.26 <span class="green"><span style="border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .25pt; padding: 0in;"><span style="--tw-border-spacing-x: 0; --tw-border-spacing-y: 0; --tw-ring-color: #3b82f680; --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; --tw-scale-x: 1; --tw-scale-y: 1; --tw-scroll-snap-strictness: proximity; --tw-shadow-colored: 0 0 #0000; --tw-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-skew-x: 0; --tw-skew-y: 0; --tw-translate-x: 0; --tw-translate-y: 0; box-sizing: border-box; color: var(--teal-100);">beats by
$0.06</span></span></span>.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; border: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .25pt; mso-padding-alt: 0in 0in 0in 25.0pt; padding: 0in;"><span style="color: black;">Revenue
of $5.6B (+1.1% Y/Y) <span class="red"><span style="border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .25pt; padding: 0in;"><span style="--tw-border-spacing-x: 0; --tw-border-spacing-y: 0; --tw-ring-color: #3b82f680; --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; --tw-scale-x: 1; --tw-scale-y: 1; --tw-scroll-snap-strictness: proximity; --tw-shadow-colored: 0 0 #0000; --tw-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-skew-x: 0; --tw-skew-y: 0; --tw-translate-x: 0; --tw-translate-y: 0; box-sizing: border-box; color: var(--red-100);">misses by
$60M</span></span></span>.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; border: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .25pt; mso-padding-alt: 0in 0in 0in 25.0pt; padding: 0in;"><span style="color: black;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; border: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .25pt; mso-padding-alt: 0in 0in 0in 25.0pt; padding: 0in;"><span style="color: black;">Genuine
Parts (<span class="ticker-hover-wrapper"><span style="border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .25pt; padding: 0in;"><span style="--tw-border-spacing-x: 0; --tw-border-spacing-y: 0; --tw-ring-color: #3b82f680; --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; --tw-scale-x: 1; --tw-scale-y: 1; --tw-scroll-snap-strictness: proximity; --tw-shadow-colored: 0 0 #0000; --tw-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-skew-x: 0; --tw-skew-y: 0; --tw-translate-x: 0; --tw-translate-y: 0; box-sizing: border-box;">NYSE:<a href="https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/GPC?hasComeFromMpArticle=false&source=content_type%253Areact%257Csection%253Amain_content%257Cbutton%253Abody_link%257Cfirst_level_url%253Anews" style="--tw-border-spacing-x: 0; --tw-border-spacing-y: 0; --tw-ring-color: #3b82f680; --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; --tw-scale-x: 1; --tw-scale-y: 1; --tw-scroll-snap-strictness: proximity; --tw-shadow-colored: 0 0 #0000; --tw-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-skew-x: 0; --tw-skew-y: 0; --tw-translate-x: 0; --tw-translate-y: 0; background-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0); box-sizing: border-box; color: var(--sa-link-color);" title="Genuine Parts Company">GPC</a></span></span></span>) declares <a href="https://seekingalpha.com/pr/19624668-genuine-parts-company-reports-fourth-quarter-and-full-year-2023-results?hasComeFromMpArticle=false&source=content_type%253Areact%257Csection%253Amain_content%257Cbutton%253Abody_link%257Cfirst_level_url%253Anews" style="--tw-border-spacing-x: 0; --tw-border-spacing-y: 0; --tw-ring-color: #3b82f680; --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; --tw-scale-x: 1; --tw-scale-y: 1; --tw-scroll-snap-strictness: proximity; --tw-shadow-colored: 0 0 #0000; --tw-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-skew-x: 0; --tw-skew-y: 0; --tw-translate-x: 0; --tw-translate-y: 0; background-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0); box-sizing: border-box; color: var(--sa-link-color);"><span style="border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .25pt; padding: 0in;">$1.00/share quarterly dividend</span></a>, </span><span style="border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; color: green; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .25pt; padding: 0in;">5.3% increase</span><span style="color: black;"> from prior
dividend of $0.95.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; border: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .25pt; mso-padding-alt: 0in 0in 0in 25.0pt; padding: 0in;"><span style="color: black;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; border: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .25pt; mso-padding-alt: 0in 0in 0in 25.0pt; padding: 0in;"><span style="color: black;">Sherwin
Williams (<span class="ticker-hover-wrapper"><span style="border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .25pt; padding: 0in;"><span style="--tw-border-spacing-x: 0; --tw-border-spacing-y: 0; --tw-ring-color: #3b82f680; --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; --tw-scale-x: 1; --tw-scale-y: 1; --tw-scroll-snap-strictness: proximity; --tw-shadow-colored: 0 0 #0000; --tw-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-skew-x: 0; --tw-skew-y: 0; --tw-translate-x: 0; --tw-translate-y: 0; box-sizing: border-box;">NYSE:<a href="https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/SHW?hasComeFromMpArticle=false&source=content_type%253Areact%257Csection%253Amain_content%257Cbutton%253Abody_link%257Cfirst_level_url%253Anews" style="--tw-border-spacing-x: 0; --tw-border-spacing-y: 0; --tw-ring-color: #3b82f680; --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; --tw-scale-x: 1; --tw-scale-y: 1; --tw-scroll-snap-strictness: proximity; --tw-shadow-colored: 0 0 #0000; --tw-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-skew-x: 0; --tw-skew-y: 0; --tw-translate-x: 0; --tw-translate-y: 0; background-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0); box-sizing: border-box; color: var(--sa-link-color);" title="The Sherwin-Williams Company">SHW</a></span></span></span>) declares <a href="https://seekingalpha.com/pr/19623922-sherwin-williams-declares-dividend-of-0_715-per-common-share?hasComeFromMpArticle=false&source=content_type%253Areact%257Csection%253Amain_content%257Cbutton%253Abody_link%257Cfirst_level_url%253Anews" style="--tw-border-spacing-x: 0; --tw-border-spacing-y: 0; --tw-ring-color: #3b82f680; --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; --tw-scale-x: 1; --tw-scale-y: 1; --tw-scroll-snap-strictness: proximity; --tw-shadow-colored: 0 0 #0000; --tw-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-skew-x: 0; --tw-skew-y: 0; --tw-translate-x: 0; --tw-translate-y: 0; background-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0); box-sizing: border-box; color: var(--sa-link-color);" target="_blank"><span style="border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .25pt; padding: 0in;">$0.715/share quarterly
dividend</span></a>, </span><span style="border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; color: green; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .25pt; padding: 0in;">18.2% increase</span><span style="color: black;"> from prior dividend of $0.605.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</div>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><u><span style="font-size: 16.0pt;">What
I am reading today</span></u></i></b><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>Thursday
morning humor.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span><span style="font-size: 11.0pt;"><a href="https://babylonbee.com/news/10-financial-tips-from-leading-politicians-for-amassing-amazing-wealth?utm_source=The%20Babylon%20Bee%20Newsletter&utm_medium=email">10
Financial Tips From Leading Politicians For Amassing Amazing Wealth | Babylon
Bee</a><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 6.0pt;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<div style="border-bottom: dotted windowtext 3.0pt; border: none; mso-element: para-border-div; padding: 0in 0in 1.0pt 0in;">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="border: none; mso-border-bottom-alt: dotted windowtext 3.0pt; mso-padding-alt: 0in 0in 1.0pt 0in; padding: 0in; text-align: justify;"><o:p> </o:p></p>
</div>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-top: 12.0pt; text-align: justify;">Visit Investing
for Survival’s website (<a href="http://investingforsurvival.com/home">http://investingforsurvival.com/home</a>)
to learn more about our Investment Strategy, Prices Disciplines and Subscriber
Service.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-top: 12.0pt; text-align: justify;"><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-top: 12.0pt; text-align: justify;"><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-top: 12.0pt; text-align: justify;"><o:p> </o:p></p>Steven J Cookhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15993653615335271862noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4670837083672737109.post-38507182768813809622024-02-14T06:05:00.000-08:002024-02-14T06:05:17.997-08:00The Morning Call---Say what? Stocks can go down?<p> </p><div style="border-bottom: dotted windowtext 3.0pt; border: none; mso-element: para-border-div; padding: 0in 0in 1.0pt 0in;">
<p align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="border: none; mso-border-bottom-alt: dotted windowtext 3.0pt; mso-padding-alt: 0in 0in 1.0pt 0in; padding: 0in; text-align: center;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="font-size: 24.0pt;">The Morning Call<o:p></o:p></span></i></b></p>
</div>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;">2/14/24<o:p></o:p></p>
<p align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;"><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;"><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;"><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><u><span style="font-size: 16.0pt;">The
Market</span></u></i></b><span style="font-size: 16.0pt; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><u>Technical</u></i></b></span><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span></i></b><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">Tuesday in the
charts.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span></span><span style="font-size: 9.0pt; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><a href="https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/cpi-surprise-breaks-arm-routs-russell-busts-bonds-batters-bullion">https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/cpi-surprise-breaks-arm-routs-russell-busts-bonds-batters-bullion</a><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: .5in; text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">Note:<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>yesterday’s market sell off was triggered by
the hotter than anticipated CPI number. Couple of points.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: .5in; text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoListParagraph" style="margin-left: .75in; mso-add-space: auto; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-align: justify; text-indent: -.25in;"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">(1)<span style="font: 7.0pt "Times New Roman";">
</span></span></span><!--[endif]--><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">overvalued markets/stocks tend to remain that way
until some unexpected event punches investors in the mouth, prompting a
valuation reassessment. That appears to be what is occurring,<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: .5in; text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpFirst" style="margin-left: .75in; mso-add-space: auto; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-align: justify; text-indent: -.25in;"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">(2)<span style="font: 7.0pt "Times New Roman";">
</span></span></span><!--[endif]--><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">that said, there are some questionable aspects to
the CPI reading, in particular ‘owners’ equivalent rent’ which accounts for a
major segment of CPI. While this stat has been trending down and will continue
to do so [it is reflective of data that is nine to twelve months old. So we are
fairly confident of future reports], it was unexplainably higher than
anticipated in this latest number. So far there is no explanation as to why. But
the point here is that this datapoint is something of an outlier,<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="margin-left: .75in; mso-add-space: auto; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-align: justify; text-indent: -.25in;"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">(3)<span style="font: 7.0pt "Times New Roman";">
</span></span></span><!--[endif]--><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">whether or not the CPI reading was a good/valid
indication of underlying inflation, it makes Powell/the Fed look like geniuses
in their latest ‘wait and see’/hawkish stance. It also, at least for the
moment, belies the commonly accepted adage that the Market accurately reflects
the sum of all that is knowable. Powell told the Market there was a reason for
going slow in easing monetary policy and was rebuffed. [By the way, this doesn’t
change my attitude about its {lack of} policy making capabilities. A broken
clock is right twice a day.] <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="margin-left: .75in; mso-add-space: auto; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-align: justify; text-indent: -.25in;"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">(4)<span style="font: 7.0pt "Times New Roman";">
</span></span></span><!--[endif]--><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">I noted in the Monday Morning Chartology: </span><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">The
long bond was down again last week, successfully challenging its 200 DMA (now
resistance). The yield curve is again inverted which seems to fly in the face
of a powerful equity market (i.e., higher short term rates are generally not
good for equities). This just adds to my consternation over the astronomical
valuations of the Mag 7 and the lack of breadth in the equity market. I am not
sure what the bond guys are thinking. </span></i><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">Now we know what they were thinking. Score
another one for the bond guys.</span><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p></o:p></span></i></p>
<p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p> </o:p></span></i></p>
<p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="margin-left: .75in; mso-add-space: auto; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-align: justify; text-indent: -.25in;"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">(5)<span style="font: 7.0pt "Times New Roman";">
</span></span></span><!--[endif]--><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">the S&P made a gap down open, bouncing down off
the upper boundary of its short term uptrend, trading below the lower boundary
of its very short term uptrend, then closing right on it. So, [a] that gap down
open needs to be filled and [b] the S&P is caught between two trend lines. One
of which has to be broken. As always in these situations, follow through is the
key.</span><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p></o:p></span></i></p>
<p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p> </o:p></span></i></p>
<p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="margin-left: .75in; mso-add-space: auto; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-align: justify; text-indent: -.25in;"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">(6)<span style="font: 7.0pt "Times New Roman";">
</span></span></span><!--[endif]--><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">Remember the several articles that I have linked to
that foretold a very sloppy February options expiration. We are getting in
spades.</span><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p></o:p></span></i></p>
<p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpLast" style="margin-left: .75in; mso-add-space: auto;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: .5in;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">Four more charts.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: .5in;"><span style="font-size: 8.0pt; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><a href="https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/4-charts-we-are-watching-will-recent-rates-action-spill-over-stocks">https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/4-charts-we-are-watching-will-recent-rates-action-spill-over-stocks</a><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoListParagraph" style="margin-left: .75in; mso-add-space: auto;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span></i></b><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">Divergences and
other technical warnings.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span><a href="https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/divergences-and-other-technical-warnings">https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/divergences-and-other-technical-warnings</a><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></i></b><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><u><span style="font-size: 14.0pt;">Fundamental</span></u></i></b><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Headlines</i></b><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="tab-stops: 41.95pt; text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>The
Economy</i></b><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="tab-stops: 41.95pt; text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="tab-stops: 41.95pt; text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>US</i></b><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 78.0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">Weekly mortgage
applications dropped 2.3% while purchase applications were down 3.0%.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 78.0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 78.0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">Month to date
retail chain store sales grew at less than one-half the rate of the prior week.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>International</i></b><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 78.0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">December UK
industrial production rose 2.6% versus estimates of -0.2%; the second estimate
of Q4 GDP growth was 0.0%, in line; January CPI was 4.0% versus 4.2%; core CPI
was -0.9% versus -0.8%.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>Other</i></b><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>The
Fed<o:p></o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></i></b><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">Atlanta Fed chief says rate cuts not likely to
happen until summer.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><a href="https://www.cnn.com/2024/02/12/economy/fed-bostic-rate-cuts/index.html">https://www.cnn.com/2024/02/12/economy/fed-bostic-rate-cuts/index.html</a><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>Fiscal
Policy<o:p></o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></i></b><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">House tax bill suggests chaos in 2025.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span><span style="font-size: 10.0pt; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><a href="https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/opinion/2848573/house-tax-deal-suggests-chaos-in-2025/">https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/opinion/2848573/house-tax-deal-suggests-chaos-in-2025/</a><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>Recession<o:p></o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></i></b><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">Commercial real estate loans coming due in
2024 balloon to $929 billion.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span><span style="font-size: 6.0pt; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><a href="https://wolfstreet.com/2024/02/12/cre-loans-maturing-in-2024-balloon-by-41-to-929-billion-after-loans-that-matured-in-2023-werent-paid-off-but-extended/">https://wolfstreet.com/2024/02/12/cre-loans-maturing-in-2024-balloon-by-41-to-929-billion-after-loans-that-matured-in-2023-werent-paid-off-but-extended/</a><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>Geopolitics<o:p></o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></i></b><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">Ukraine starting to collapse.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span><span style="font-size: 10.0pt; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><a href="https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2024/02/ukraine-collapse-starting-what-happens-next.html">https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2024/02/ukraine-collapse-starting-what-happens-next.html</a><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Bottom line<o:p></o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span></i></b><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">Are you ready for
the roaring twenties?<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span></span><span style="font-size: 8.0pt; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><a href="https://alhambrapartners.com/2024/02/12/weekly-market-pulse-are-you-ready-for-the-roarin-twenties/?src=news">https://alhambrapartners.com/2024/02/12/weekly-market-pulse-are-you-ready-for-the-roarin-twenties/?src=news</a><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: .5in; text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">A very interesting
thesis on why the Market appears more expensive than it really is.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: .5in; text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><a href="https://humbledollar.com/2024/02/fear-of-heights/">https://humbledollar.com/2024/02/fear-of-heights/</a><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span></i></b><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">Outlook for
S&P dividend growth.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span></span><span style="font-size: 10.0pt; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><a href="https://politicalcalculations.blogspot.com/2024/02/winter-2023-snapshot-of-future-for-s.html">https://politicalcalculations.blogspot.com/2024/02/winter-2023-snapshot-of-future-for-s.html</a><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>News on Stocks in Our Portfolios</i></b><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><u><span style="font-size: 16.0pt;">What
I am reading today</span></u></i></b><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>The
strange ignorance of the effect of price caps.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span><a href="https://www.econlib.org/a-strange-ignorance-of-the-effect-of-price-caps/">https://www.econlib.org/a-strange-ignorance-of-the-effect-of-price-caps/</a><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span><span style="font-size: 6.0pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 6.0pt;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 6.0pt;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span></span>Another great
idea from our ruling class.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span><a href="https://nalert.blogspot.com/2024/02/biden-admin-diverts-veterans-affairs.html">https://nalert.blogspot.com/2024/02/biden-admin-diverts-veterans-affairs.html</a><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><o:p> </o:p></p>
<div style="border-bottom: dotted windowtext 3.0pt; border: none; mso-element: para-border-div; padding: 0in 0in 1.0pt 0in;">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="border: none; mso-border-bottom-alt: dotted windowtext 3.0pt; mso-padding-alt: 0in 0in 1.0pt 0in; padding: 0in; text-align: justify;"><o:p> </o:p></p>
</div>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-top: 12.0pt; text-align: justify;">Visit Investing
for Survival’s website (<a href="http://investingforsurvival.com/home">http://investingforsurvival.com/home</a>)
to learn more about our Investment Strategy, Prices Disciplines and Subscriber
Service.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-top: 12.0pt; text-align: justify;"><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-top: 12.0pt; text-align: justify;"><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-top: 12.0pt; text-align: justify;"><o:p> </o:p></p>Steven J Cookhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15993653615335271862noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4670837083672737109.post-41665808129150332962024-02-13T06:11:00.000-08:002024-02-13T06:11:12.991-08:00The Morning Call---Beware of Friday's option expiration<p> </p><div style="border-bottom: dotted windowtext 3.0pt; border: none; mso-element: para-border-div; padding: 0in 0in 1.0pt 0in;">
<p align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="border: none; mso-border-bottom-alt: dotted windowtext 3.0pt; mso-padding-alt: 0in 0in 1.0pt 0in; padding: 0in; text-align: center;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="font-size: 24.0pt;">The Morning Call<o:p></o:p></span></i></b></p>
</div>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;">2/13/24<o:p></o:p></p>
<p align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;"><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;"><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><u><span style="font-size: 16.0pt;">The
Market</span></u></i></b><span style="font-size: 16.0pt; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><u>Technical</u></i></b></span><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span></i></b><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">Monday in the
charts.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span></span><span style="font-size: 8.0pt; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><a href="https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/0dte-punters-pump-and-dump-momentum-stocks-parabolic-tech-hits-airpocket">https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/0dte-punters-pump-and-dump-momentum-stocks-parabolic-tech-hits-airpocket</a><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span></i></b><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">Beware of the
results of this Friday’s option expiration.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span></span><span style="font-size: 10.0pt; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><a href="https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/massive-unclenching-looms-90-dealar-gamma-expire-friday">https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/massive-unclenching-looms-90-dealar-gamma-expire-friday</a><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span></i></b><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">From Goldman’s
funds flow guru.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span></span><span style="font-size: 8.0pt; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><a href="https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/goldman-seeing-momo-fomo-retail-call-buyers-short-covering-dash-trash">https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/goldman-seeing-momo-fomo-retail-call-buyers-short-covering-dash-trash</a><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span></i></b><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">Past performances
suggest that stocks have further to go.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span><a href="https://www.ft.com/content/6810f509-feaf-4f4f-ab96-5784b94fa8f8">https://www.ft.com/content/6810f509-feaf-4f4f-ab96-5784b94fa8f8</a><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span></i></b><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">Higher for longer.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span><a href="https://allstarcharts.com/rates-higher-for-longer-it-is/">https://allstarcharts.com/rates-higher-for-longer-it-is/</a><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></i></b><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><u><span style="font-size: 14.0pt;">Fundamental</span></u></i></b><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Headlines</i></b><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="tab-stops: 41.95pt; text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>The
Economy</i></b><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="tab-stops: 41.95pt; text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="tab-stops: 41.95pt; text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>US</i></b><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 78.0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">Th January budget
deficit was $22.0 billion versus forecasts of $21.0 billion.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 78.0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 78.0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">The January small
business optimism index was 89.9 versus predictions of 91.1.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 78.0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 78.0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">January CPI was
+0.3% versus consensus of +0.2%; core CPI was +0.4% versus +0.3%.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 2;"> </span></i></b><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span><span style="font-size: 9.0pt; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><a href="https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/cpi-prints-hotter-expected-january-food-utilities-jumped">https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/cpi-prints-hotter-expected-january-food-utilities-jumped</a><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 9.0pt; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>International</i></b><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 78.0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">The December UK
unemployment rate was 3.8% versus estimates of 4.0%; December average earnings
(3 month YoY) grew 5.8% versus +5.6%.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 78.0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 78.0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">January Japanese PPI
was 0.0% versus expectations of +0.1%.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 78.0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 78.0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">The February EU economic
sentiment index was 25.0 versus projections of 20.1; the February German economic
sentiment index was 19.9 versus 17.5; the February German current conditions
index was -81.7 versus -79.0.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>Other</i></b><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>The
Fed<o:p></o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></i></b><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">The hunt for the elusive ‘neutral rate.’<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><a href="https://www.ft.com/content/e0f27da0-b735-4b73-b5a9-06dbc186842f">https://www.ft.com/content/e0f27da0-b735-4b73-b5a9-06dbc186842f</a><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>Fiscal
Policy<o:p></o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></i></b><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">Criminal neglect.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><a href="https://nalert.blogspot.com/2024/02/rand-paul-its-criminal-neglect-for.html">https://nalert.blogspot.com/2024/02/rand-paul-its-criminal-neglect-for.html</a><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>Recession<o:p></o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 42.0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">Business economists
less worried about recession, more worried about ‘higher for longer’ and deficit
spending.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span></i></b><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span><span style="font-size: 8.0pt; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><a href="https://apnews.com/article/us-economy-interest-rates-federal-reserve-recession-3dc2a271c285ec78d7b889afa1e1f5eb">https://apnews.com/article/us-economy-interest-rates-federal-reserve-recession-3dc2a271c285ec78d7b889afa1e1f5eb</a><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 8.0pt; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 8.0pt; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span></span><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">The latest NY Fed (goldilocks) consumer survey.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span></span><span style="font-size: 7.0pt; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><a href="https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/3-year-inflation-expectations-tumble-lowest-record-earnings-expectations-suddenly-surge">https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/3-year-inflation-expectations-tumble-lowest-record-earnings-expectations-suddenly-surge</a><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 8.0pt; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Bottom line<o:p></o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span></i></b><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">The power of
compounding.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span><a href="https://scottgrannis.blogspot.com/2024/02/s-500-5000.html">https://scottgrannis.blogspot.com/2024/02/s-500-5000.html</a><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span></i></b><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">Common valuation methods.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span></span><span style="font-size: 8.0pt; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><a href="https://www.wsj.com/finance/stocks/stock-prices-valuations-financial-advisers-35ced497?mod=hp_lead_pos3">https://www.wsj.com/finance/stocks/stock-prices-valuations-financial-advisers-35ced497?mod=hp_lead_pos3</a><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span><o:p></o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-indent: .5in;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">Investors already
bracing for US elections.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span><a href="https://www.ft.com/content/4bbfbde3-dd82-4e8f-a065-380f9a2ae1e1">https://www.ft.com/content/4bbfbde3-dd82-4e8f-a065-380f9a2ae1e1</a><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span></i></b><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">We have seen this
all before.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span></span><span style="font-size: 8.0pt; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><a href="https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/stocks-hit-all-time-high-new-era-productivity-and-profitability-except-weve-all-seen">https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/stocks-hit-all-time-high-new-era-productivity-and-profitability-except-weve-all-seen</a><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>News on Stocks in Our Portfolios</i></b><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><u><span style="font-size: 16.0pt;">What
I am reading today</span></u></i></b><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>Sleeping
our way to increased productivity.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span><span style="font-size: 11.0pt;"><a href="https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2024/02/sleeping-our-way-to-being-productive.html">https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2024/02/sleeping-our-way-to-being-productive.html</a><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 6.0pt;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<div style="border-bottom: dotted windowtext 3.0pt; border: none; mso-element: para-border-div; padding: 0in 0in 1.0pt 0in;">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="border: none; mso-border-bottom-alt: dotted windowtext 3.0pt; mso-padding-alt: 0in 0in 1.0pt 0in; padding: 0in; text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>Quote of the day.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="border: none; mso-border-bottom-alt: dotted windowtext 3.0pt; mso-padding-alt: 0in 0in 1.0pt 0in; padding: 0in; text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span><a href="https://cafehayek.com/2024/02/quotation-of-the-day-4541.html">https://cafehayek.com/2024/02/quotation-of-the-day-4541.html</a><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="border: none; mso-border-bottom-alt: dotted windowtext 3.0pt; mso-padding-alt: 0in 0in 1.0pt 0in; padding: 0in; text-align: justify;"><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="border: none; mso-border-bottom-alt: dotted windowtext 3.0pt; mso-padding-alt: 0in 0in 1.0pt 0in; padding: 0in; text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>Is Taylor Swift increasing NFL
ratings?<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="border: none; mso-border-bottom-alt: dotted windowtext 3.0pt; mso-padding-alt: 0in 0in 1.0pt 0in; padding: 0in; text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span><a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2024/02/10/upshot/taylor-swift-nfl-ratings.html">https://www.nytimes.com/2024/02/10/upshot/taylor-swift-nfl-ratings.html</a><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="border: none; mso-border-bottom-alt: dotted windowtext 3.0pt; mso-padding-alt: 0in 0in 1.0pt 0in; padding: 0in; text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="border: none; mso-border-bottom-alt: dotted windowtext 3.0pt; mso-padding-alt: 0in 0in 1.0pt 0in; padding: 0in; text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>A vignette from Lincoln’s life.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="border: none; mso-border-bottom-alt: dotted windowtext 3.0pt; mso-padding-alt: 0in 0in 1.0pt 0in; padding: 0in; text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span><a href="https://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2024/02/a-genius-for-friendship-10.php">https://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2024/02/a-genius-for-friendship-10.php</a><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="border: none; mso-border-bottom-alt: dotted windowtext 3.0pt; mso-padding-alt: 0in 0in 1.0pt 0in; padding: 0in; text-align: justify;"><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="border: none; mso-border-bottom-alt: dotted windowtext 3.0pt; mso-padding-alt: 0in 0in 1.0pt 0in; padding: 0in; text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>Herodotus on the Scythians.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="border: none; mso-border-bottom-alt: dotted windowtext 3.0pt; mso-padding-alt: 0in 0in 1.0pt 0in; padding: 0in; text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span><span style="font-size: 11.0pt;"><a href="https://www.nationalgeographic.com/premium/article/scythian-skin-human-leather-quiver-herodotus?rid=7912D7310BBCEE9B958D4BEDCFEC5AE5&cmpid=org=ngp::mc=crm-email::src=ngp::cmp=editorial::add=Daily_NL_Monday_History_20240212">Ancient
Scythians made human leather, research confirms (nationalgeographic.com)</a><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="border: none; mso-border-bottom-alt: dotted windowtext 3.0pt; mso-padding-alt: 0in 0in 1.0pt 0in; padding: 0in; text-align: justify;"><o:p> </o:p></p>
</div>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-top: 12.0pt; text-align: justify;">Visit Investing
for Survival’s website (<a href="http://investingforsurvival.com/home">http://investingforsurvival.com/home</a>)
to learn more about our Investment Strategy, Prices Disciplines and Subscriber
Service.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-top: 12.0pt; text-align: justify;"><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-top: 12.0pt; text-align: justify;"><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-top: 12.0pt; text-align: justify;"><o:p> </o:p></p>Steven J Cookhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15993653615335271862noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4670837083672737109.post-69848413458154359012024-02-12T06:19:00.000-08:002024-02-12T06:19:57.322-08:00Monday Morning Chartology<p> </p><div style="border-bottom: dotted windowtext 3.0pt; border: none; mso-element: para-border-div; padding: 0in 0in 1.0pt 0in;">
<p align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="border: none; mso-border-bottom-alt: dotted windowtext 3.0pt; mso-padding-alt: 0in 0in 1.0pt 0in; padding: 0in; text-align: center;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="font-size: 24.0pt;">The Morning Call<o:p></o:p></span></i></b></p>
</div>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;">2/12/24<o:p></o:p></p>
<p align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;"><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><u><span style="font-size: 16.0pt;">The
Market</span></u></i></b><span style="font-size: 16.0pt; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><u>Technical<o:p></o:p></u></i></b></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><u><span style="font-size: 14.0pt;"><o:p><span style="text-decoration: none;"> </span></o:p></span></u></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: .5in; text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">The S&P continues
its advance undaunted. It is now at the upper boundary of its short term
uptrend. Let’s see if that is enough to slow this train down. Additional resistance
exists at the upper boundary of its intermediate term uptrend (~6600) and its
long term uptrend (too high to even mention). <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: .5in; text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: .5in; text-align: justify;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">Given
the economic/political/social issues that I believe are facing us, it is hard
for me to make a call for a dramatically higher Market. But historically,
stocks don’t make a new all-time high after a two year hiatus then suddenly roll
over. So it seems likely that they will climb the proverbial ‘wall of worry’
for some length of time. <o:p></o:p></span></i></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: .5in; text-align: justify;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p> </o:p></span></i></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: .5in; text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">I see no reason to
argue with the tape. I continue to hold the IWN trading position. That said, this
is a Market phase in which many of our holdings are likely to start trading into
their Sell Half Range. When that occurs, I will act.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: .5in; text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: .5in; text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">S&P highs keep
on coming.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: .5in; text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><a href="https://www.indexologyblog.com/2024/02/08/sp-500-highs-keep-coming/">https://www.indexologyblog.com/2024/02/08/sp-500-highs-keep-coming/</a><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: .5in; text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span></i></b><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">The latest from
Goldman’s trading desk.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span></span><span style="font-size: 8.0pt; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><a href="https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/bordering-silliness-goldmans-hedge-fund-honcho-surveys-soaring-stock-stories">https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/bordering-silliness-goldmans-hedge-fund-honcho-surveys-soaring-stock-stories</a><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 8.0pt; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span></i></b><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">Sentiment so
bullish its bearish.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span></span><a href="https://realinvestmentadvice.com/investors-sentiment-is-so-bullish-it-is-bearish/?utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Investors%20Sentiment%20Is%20So%20Bullish%20It%20Is%20Bearish&utm_content=Investors%20Sentiment%20Is%20So%20Bullish%20It%20Is%20Bearish+CID_6fcfeeecbb3c414db87142b1180fa99a&utm_source=RIA%20Email%20Marketing%20Software&utm_term=SEE%20THE%20ENTIRE%20REPORT%20HERE">Investors
Sentiment Is So Bullish It Is Bearish - RIA (realinvestmentadvice.com)</a><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>Everyone
is in the same trade and all in.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span></span><span style="font-size: 8.0pt; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><a href="https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/everyone-same-trades-and-all-goldman-tells-clients-get-out-parabolic-tech">https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/everyone-same-trades-and-all-goldman-tells-clients-get-out-parabolic-tech</a><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 8.0pt; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiYcjtyVG4Fudd9h4MBmDZYTnOnBHE4jDFQTGKVO75DIJ8tAsnoWWm76Nd1gwWn1IGuMEVwApgKTw8ACeSeE-7M-6oMt0n10XkKFQGHHCLeRuWHoU1gX19W0mFIn_9heH50Hirybq33pno54kpXFV_ZrM9YG1Q1iRADoOf38K2pJls_yxpNwk3iofFH70g/s1920/sp21224.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1080" data-original-width="1920" height="360" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiYcjtyVG4Fudd9h4MBmDZYTnOnBHE4jDFQTGKVO75DIJ8tAsnoWWm76Nd1gwWn1IGuMEVwApgKTw8ACeSeE-7M-6oMt0n10XkKFQGHHCLeRuWHoU1gX19W0mFIn_9heH50Hirybq33pno54kpXFV_ZrM9YG1Q1iRADoOf38K2pJls_yxpNwk3iofFH70g/w640-h360/sp21224.jpg" width="640" /></a></i></b></div><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><br /></i></b><p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: .5in; text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">The long bond was
down again last week, successfully challenging its 200 DMA (now resistance). The
yield curve is again inverted which seems to fly in the face of a powerful
equity market (i.e., higher short term rates are generally not good for
equities). This just adds to my consternation over the astronomical valuations
of the Mag 7 and the lack of breadth in the equity market. I am not sure what
the bond guys are thinking.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: .5in; text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: .5in; text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">The yield curve
has never been inverted for a longer period of time.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: .5in; text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><a href="https://twitter.com/charliebilello/status/1755812622442619269">https://twitter.com/charliebilello/status/1755812622442619269</a><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: .5in; text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: .5in; text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjPJeQAR5uw0QdtIe1ca-ZUYq_UjyYwpiNOGxj_zDZOc_traymwg2dns8DlodY-YWoDPzvEhiHMucrwutAhcYl4RXFGjHcqM0fhaN1ifxRqKalnUyxLF4MOjBCGR26YlVF3w09E2vW3gxIOgvMAUTMMvKix7rKOZO7yqdyT3fMnk8zZgPnGyZxx3DPBUpA/s1920/tlt21224.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1080" data-original-width="1920" height="360" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjPJeQAR5uw0QdtIe1ca-ZUYq_UjyYwpiNOGxj_zDZOc_traymwg2dns8DlodY-YWoDPzvEhiHMucrwutAhcYl4RXFGjHcqM0fhaN1ifxRqKalnUyxLF4MOjBCGR26YlVF3w09E2vW3gxIOgvMAUTMMvKix7rKOZO7yqdyT3fMnk8zZgPnGyZxx3DPBUpA/w640-h360/tlt21224.jpg" width="640" /></a></div><br /> <p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: .5in; text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: .5in; text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">GLD continues to
hold in there near its all-time high; but it just can’t bull its way through
that level. Indeed, it is having a problem just staying above its 50 DMA. There
is still a lot of positive chatter about gold, but until it can break above its
all-time high, I see no incentive to dabble.</span><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p></o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: .5in; tab-stops: 60.7pt; text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span><o:p></o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="tab-stops: 60.7pt; text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: .5in; tab-stops: 60.7pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-no-proof: yes;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjKx7rTajb5lOaGvXe0OrijKXd4j82IrDhzmfOz0pXI1CZfakp37Y7YB5Ws0u9diPNrUC6lrctureuWyQA3hYsgWT4oQbnDxp9DWrGLD61Dku-AiLLjN4QVtZriLDmCYQz-XnFl-f0eJUimcBnM5aPsbSIItzzyr7tVNW4P1wupgyJ7_Wh8s_dNisXojC8/s1920/gld21224.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1080" data-original-width="1920" height="360" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjKx7rTajb5lOaGvXe0OrijKXd4j82IrDhzmfOz0pXI1CZfakp37Y7YB5Ws0u9diPNrUC6lrctureuWyQA3hYsgWT4oQbnDxp9DWrGLD61Dku-AiLLjN4QVtZriLDmCYQz-XnFl-f0eJUimcBnM5aPsbSIItzzyr7tVNW4P1wupgyJ7_Wh8s_dNisXojC8/w640-h360/gld21224.jpg" width="640" /></a></div><br /> <p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: .5in; tab-stops: 60.7pt; text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: .5in; tab-stops: 60.7pt; text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: .5in; text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: .5in; text-align: justify;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">While
the long term uptrend remains in place, the dollar’s short term technical
picture has been wrecked. To be sure, a gap down open of the order of magnitude
shown on the chart begs to be closed. But that will likely take a long time. Expect
a lot of directionless trading over the short to intermediate term. </span></i><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">Clearly, there has
been no directionless trading, though last week’s pin action was exactly that. On
the other hand, it is struggling to move above its 50 DMA. How it handles that
bit of resistance will provide us with some helpful directional information.</span><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p></o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgseFVbhRvUB3AMK1-rA1sZiuAw8osyCpqjgJXuTWaGZ4qugmP3P1DmaNGAJpinshYPzQ22lBGoeERYJ-vRGrV6DYKYVNJTuXKQvF-9NfGeUtDnmspreSTN8292ncpRGRAq_6AB7FVd9kMyuHGO3ywcyh-BvNv1brO-fsDDe2S8GzWusS4Z0zeodqKOU4Y/s1920/uup21224.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1080" data-original-width="1920" height="360" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgseFVbhRvUB3AMK1-rA1sZiuAw8osyCpqjgJXuTWaGZ4qugmP3P1DmaNGAJpinshYPzQ22lBGoeERYJ-vRGrV6DYKYVNJTuXKQvF-9NfGeUtDnmspreSTN8292ncpRGRAq_6AB7FVd9kMyuHGO3ywcyh-BvNv1brO-fsDDe2S8GzWusS4Z0zeodqKOU4Y/w640-h360/uup21224.jpg" width="640" /></a></i></b></div><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><br /></i></b><p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span></i></b><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">Friday in the
charts.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span></span><span style="font-size: 9.0pt; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><a href="https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/bitcoin-blasts-euphoric-stocks-do-something-hasnt-happened-52-years">https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/bitcoin-blasts-euphoric-stocks-do-something-hasnt-happened-52-years</a><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></i></b><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><u><span style="font-size: 14.0pt;">Fundamental</span></u></i></b><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Headlines</i></b><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="tab-stops: 41.95pt; text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>The
Economy</i></b><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="tab-stops: 41.95pt; text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="tab-stops: 41.95pt 1.0in 1.5in 2.0in 2.5in center 3.0in; text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 2;"> </span>Week in review<o:p></o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="tab-stops: 41.95pt 1.0in 1.5in 2.0in 2.5in center 3.0in; text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 1.0in; tab-stops: 41.95pt 1.0in 1.5in 2.0in 2.5in center 3.0in; text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">The stats in the
US were few and mixed with no reported primary indicators (ditto with overseas
data). This doesn’t extend or, for that matter, end the nascent trend of upbeat
reading. So the soft/no landing scenario remains the most likely forecast---which
is, of course, good news. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 1.0in; tab-stops: 41.95pt 1.0in 1.5in 2.0in 2.5in center 3.0in; text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 1.0in; tab-stops: 41.95pt 1.0in 1.5in 2.0in 2.5in center 3.0in; text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">The potential problem
is inflation and the Fed’s reaction (in an election year). There are some analysts
that believe that the Fed has already done enough and to stay higher for longer
will push the economy into recession and even deflation. There is another camp
that thinks that the Fed will do what it does best, i.e., fold like a cheap
umbrella irrespective of the inflation risk---as opposed to yet another group
who believe it will not lower rates until the battle is won.</span><span style="font-size: 10.0pt; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"> <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 1.0in; tab-stops: 41.95pt 1.0in 1.5in 2.0in 2.5in center 3.0in; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 10.0pt; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 1.0in; tab-stops: 41.95pt 1.0in 1.5in 2.0in 2.5in center 3.0in; text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">The cynic in me
can’t help but think that the Fed will ease whether it has conquered inflation
or not. Though clearly if it has (and I am not saying that it has), all the
better.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 1.0in; tab-stops: 41.95pt 1.0in 1.5in 2.0in 2.5in center 3.0in; text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 1.0in; tab-stops: 41.95pt 1.0in 1.5in 2.0in 2.5in center 3.0in; text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">The Fed put is back.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 1.0in; tab-stops: 41.95pt 1.0in 1.5in 2.0in 2.5in center 3.0in; text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><a href="https://www.ft.com/content/fa1d25a5-e796-4910-87b2-d736e8ece592">https://www.ft.com/content/fa1d25a5-e796-4910-87b2-d736e8ece592</a><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 1.0in; tab-stops: 41.95pt 1.0in 1.5in 2.0in 2.5in center 3.0in; text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 1.0in; tab-stops: 41.95pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">Bottom line:<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 1.0in; tab-stops: 41.95pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoListParagraph" style="margin-left: 1.25in; mso-add-space: auto; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; tab-stops: 41.95pt; text-align: justify; text-indent: -.25in;"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">(1)<span style="font: 7.0pt "Times New Roman";">
</span></span></span><!--[endif]--><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">I think that the inflation risks are behind
us, at least for the short term. However, longer term, I believe that the most
important economic factor is the potential [inflationary] impact of a grossly
irresponsible fiscal policy which if left unresolved will ultimately push
interest rates and inflation to higher levels, risking a tighter monetary
policy and impeding the economy’s ability to grow.<o:p></o:p></span></i></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="tab-stops: 41.95pt; text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 2;"> </span></i></b><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span><span style="font-size: 9.0pt; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpFirst" style="margin-left: 1.25in; mso-add-space: auto; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; tab-stops: 41.95pt; text-align: justify; text-indent: -.25in;"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">(2)<span style="font: 7.0pt "Times New Roman";"> </span></span></span><!--[endif]--><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">The</span><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"> </span></i><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">question of
recession [what kind of landing] is gaining some visibility, in my opinion: no recession.
We still are not at the point that I am ready to alter my forecast; but we are
close. Clearly, my short term outlook is improving. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpLast" style="margin-left: 1.25in; mso-add-space: auto; tab-stops: 41.95pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">The $64,000 question is ‘what does it mean for
equities?’<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Judging by the recent Market’s
pin action in the face of both good and bad economic news, investors believe in
a Goldilocks outcome. Though the firmness of their conviction is likely to be
tested soon. As I noted above, the Markets techincals are getting a bit hairy;
so I expect a price retreat in the near future. How well the Market holds will
give us an indication of that view.</span><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="font-size: 8.0pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="tab-stops: 75.2pt; text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="font-size: 8.0pt;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span></span><o:p></o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="tab-stops: 41.95pt; text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 2;"> </span>US</i></b><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 7.0pt; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>International<o:p></o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 2;"> </span>Other<o:p></o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 2;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></i></b><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">CEO confidence the highest in two years.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 2;"> </span></span><span style="font-size: 10.0pt; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><a href="https://www.axios.com/2024/02/08/ceo-confidence-rises-highest-level-in-two-years">https://www.axios.com/2024/02/08/ceo-confidence-rises-highest-level-in-two-years</a><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-indent: .5in;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 78.0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">Housing is
unaffordable to many. Monetary and fiscal policies only make it worse.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-indent: .5in;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span></i></b><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span><span style="font-size: 9.0pt; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span><span style="font-size: 9.0pt;"><a href="https://realinvestmentadvice.com/housing-is-unaffordable-dems-want-to-make-it-worse/?utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Macroview%20Housing%20Is%20Unaffordable%20Dems%20Want%20To%20Make%20It%20Worse&utm_content=Macroview%20Housing%20Is%20Unaffordable%20Dems%20Want%20To%20Make%20It%20Worse+CID_8ca0ab35681c25d5132986ca8511b407&utm_source=RIA%20Email%20Marketing%20Software&utm_term=READ%20MORE">Housing
Is Unaffordable. Dems Want To Make It Worse. - RIA (realinvestmentadvice.com)</a><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-indent: .5in;"><span style="font-size: 9.0pt; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-indent: .5in;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Inflation<o:p></o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-indent: .5in;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-indent: .5in;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></i></b><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">Revised BLS CPI data is a nothingburger.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-indent: .5in;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><a href="https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/bls-releases-revised-cpi-data-heres-whats-it">https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/bls-releases-revised-cpi-data-heres-whats-it</a><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-indent: .5in;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-indent: .5in;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Recession<o:p></o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-indent: .5in;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-indent: .5in;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></i></b><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">Recession alert weekly leading economic index.</span><span style="font-size: 9.0pt; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-indent: .5in;"><span style="font-size: 9.0pt; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><a href="https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2024/02/09/recession-weekly-leading-economic-index">https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2024/02/09/recession-weekly-leading-economic-index</a><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-indent: .5in;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-indent: .5in;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></i></b><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">More Q1 GDP nowcast updates.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-indent: .5in;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span><span style="font-size: 9.0pt; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><a href="https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2024/02/early-gdp-tracking-solid-start-for-q1_066664716.html">https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2024/02/early-gdp-tracking-solid-start-for-q1_066664716.html</a><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-indent: .5in;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-indent: .5in;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">China<o:p></o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-indent: .5in;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-indent: .5in;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></i></b><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">China’s property crisis is starting to ripple across
the globe.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-indent: .5in;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span><span style="font-size: 6.0pt; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-02-09/china-s-real-estate-crisis-is-starting-to-ripple-across-the-world?srnd=premium&sref=loFkkPMQ">https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-02-09/china-s-real-estate-crisis-is-starting-to-ripple-across-the-world?srnd=premium&sref=loFkkPMQ</a><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-indent: .5in;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>The
Financial System<o:p></o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></i></b><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">A more sanguine view of credit card balances
and deficiencies.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span><span style="font-size: 8.0pt; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><a href="https://wolfstreet.com/2024/02/09/our-drunken-sailors-credit-cards-balances-burden-delinquencies-and-available-credit/">https://wolfstreet.com/2024/02/09/our-drunken-sailors-credit-cards-balances-burden-delinquencies-and-available-credit/</a><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-indent: .5in;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-indent: .5in;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Will commercial real estate trigger the next
crisis?<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-indent: .5in;"><span style="font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><a href="https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/will-commercial-real-estate-trigger-next-crisis">https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/will-commercial-real-estate-trigger-next-crisis</a><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-indent: .5in;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Bottom line<o:p></o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span></i></b><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">Five questions to
gauge the financial markets.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span></span><span style="font-size: 8.0pt; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><a href="https://blogs.cfainstitute.org/investor/2024/02/08/its-not-always-the-economy-five-questions-to-gauge-financial-markets/">https://blogs.cfainstitute.org/investor/2024/02/08/its-not-always-the-economy-five-questions-to-gauge-financial-markets/</a><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-indent: .5in;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>News on Stocks in Our Portfolios</i></b><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span><o:p></o:p></p>
<div style="background: white; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; margin-left: .5in; margin-right: 0in; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .25pt; mso-element: para-border-div; padding: 0in 0in 0in 25.0pt;">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; border: none; margin-bottom: 15.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .25pt; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-padding-alt: 0in 0in 0in 25.0pt; padding: 0in;"><span style="color: black;">Illinois Tool
Works Inc. (<span class="ticker-hover-wrapper"><span style="border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .25pt; padding: 0in;"><span style="--tw-border-spacing-x: 0; --tw-border-spacing-y: 0; --tw-ring-color: #3b82f680; --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; --tw-scale-x: 1; --tw-scale-y: 1; --tw-scroll-snap-strictness: proximity; --tw-shadow-colored: 0 0 #0000; --tw-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-skew-x: 0; --tw-skew-y: 0; --tw-translate-x: 0; --tw-translate-y: 0; box-sizing: border-box;">NYSE:<a href="https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/ITW?hasComeFromMpArticle=false&source=content_type%253Areact%257Csection%253Amain_content%257Cbutton%253Abody_link%257Cfirst_level_url%253Anews" style="--tw-border-spacing-x: 0; --tw-border-spacing-y: 0; --tw-ring-color: #3b82f680; --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; --tw-scale-x: 1; --tw-scale-y: 1; --tw-scroll-snap-strictness: proximity; --tw-shadow-colored: 0 0 #0000; --tw-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-skew-x: 0; --tw-skew-y: 0; --tw-translate-x: 0; --tw-translate-y: 0; background-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0); box-sizing: border-box; color: var(--sa-link-color);" title="Illinois Tool Works Inc.">ITW</a></span></span></span>) declares <a href="https://seekingalpha.com/pr/19619434-itw-board-of-directors-declares-quarterly-dividend?hasComeFromMpArticle=false&source=content_type%253Areact%257Csection%253Amain_content%257Cbutton%253Abody_link%257Cfirst_level_url%253Anews" style="--tw-border-spacing-x: 0; --tw-border-spacing-y: 0; --tw-ring-color: #3b82f680; --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; --tw-scale-x: 1; --tw-scale-y: 1; --tw-scroll-snap-strictness: proximity; --tw-shadow-colored: 0 0 #0000; --tw-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-skew-x: 0; --tw-skew-y: 0; --tw-translate-x: 0; --tw-translate-y: 0; background-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0); box-sizing: border-box; color: var(--sa-link-color);" target="_blank"><span style="border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .25pt; padding: 0in;">$1.40/share quarterly
dividend</span></a>, in line with previous.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</div>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><u><span style="font-size: 16.0pt;">What
I am reading today</span></u></i></b><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><o:p> </o:p></p>
<div style="border-bottom: dotted windowtext 3.0pt; border: none; mso-element: para-border-div; padding: 0in 0in 1.0pt 0in;">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="border: none; mso-border-bottom-alt: dotted windowtext 3.0pt; mso-padding-alt: 0in 0in 1.0pt 0in; padding: 0in; text-align: justify;"><o:p> </o:p></p>
</div>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-top: 12.0pt; text-align: justify;">Visit Investing
for Survival’s website (<a href="http://investingforsurvival.com/home">http://investingforsurvival.com/home</a>)
to learn more about our Investment Strategy, Prices Disciplines and Subscriber
Service.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-top: 12.0pt; text-align: justify;"><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-top: 12.0pt; text-align: justify;"><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-top: 12.0pt; text-align: justify;"><o:p> </o:p></p>Steven J Cookhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15993653615335271862noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4670837083672737109.post-30542827839286196002024-02-09T06:03:00.000-08:002024-02-09T06:03:03.234-08:00The Morning Call--Unprecedented divergences<p> </p><div style="border-bottom: dotted windowtext 3.0pt; border: none; mso-element: para-border-div; padding: 0in 0in 1.0pt 0in;">
<p align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="border: none; mso-border-bottom-alt: dotted windowtext 3.0pt; mso-padding-alt: 0in 0in 1.0pt 0in; padding: 0in; text-align: center;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="font-size: 24.0pt;">The Morning Call<o:p></o:p></span></i></b></p>
</div>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;">2/9/24<o:p></o:p></p>
<p align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;"><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><u><span style="font-size: 16.0pt;">The
Market</span></u></i></b><span style="font-size: 16.0pt; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><u>Technical</u></i></b></span><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span></i></b><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">Thursday in the
charts.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span></span><a href="https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/massive-short-squeeze-sends-small-caps-soaring-big-tech-skids-bitcoin-black-gold-bid"><span style="font-size: 7.0pt; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/massive-short-squeeze-sends-small-caps-soaring-big-tech-skids-bitcoin-black-gold-bid</span></a><span style="font-size: 7.0pt; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span></i></b><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">SPY and IWM’s
unprecedented divergence.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span></span><a href="https://www.etf.com/sections/news/spy-and-iwms-unprecedented-divergence-explained"><span style="font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">https://www.etf.com/sections/news/spy-and-iwms-unprecedented-divergence-explained</span></a><span style="font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span></i></b><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">More on internal
Market irregularities.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span></span><a href="https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/equity-market-focu-theme-sparks-extreme-sentiment-signal"><span style="font-size: 10.0pt; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/equity-market-focu-theme-sparks-extreme-sentiment-signal</span></a><span style="font-size: 10.0pt; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></i></b><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><u><span style="font-size: 14.0pt;">Fundamental</span></u></i></b><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Headlines</i></b><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="tab-stops: 41.95pt; text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>The
Economy</i></b><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="tab-stops: 41.95pt; text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="tab-stops: 41.95pt; text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>US</i></b><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 2;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></i></b><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">Weekly initial jobless claims totaled 218,000
versus estimates of 220,000.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 2;"> </span></i></b><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span><a href="https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2024/02/08/unemployment-claims-down-9k-lower-than-expected"><span style="font-size: 7.0pt; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2024/02/08/unemployment-claims-down-9k-lower-than-expected</span></a><span style="font-size: 7.0pt; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 7.0pt; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>International</i></b><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 2;"> </span></i></b><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The January German CPI was +0.2%, in line.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>Other</i></b><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>Fiscal
Policy<o:p></o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></i></b><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">All gas, no brakes.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span><a href="https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/biden-admin-all-gas-no-brakes-economic-reflation-nomura-warns-running-it-hot-election"><span style="font-size: 7.0pt; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/biden-admin-all-gas-no-brakes-economic-reflation-nomura-warns-running-it-hot-election</span></a><span style="font-size: 7.0pt; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>Inflation<o:p></o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span></i></b><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Chinese deflation alarms.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span><a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2024/02/08/business/china-deflation.html"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">https://www.nytimes.com/2024/02/08/business/china-deflation.html</span></a><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></i></b><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">The risk of deflation in the US.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span><a href="https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2024/02/will-we-follow-china-and-suffer-deflation-which-is-very-much-worse-than-inflation.html"><span style="font-size: 7.0pt; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2024/02/will-we-follow-china-and-suffer-deflation-which-is-very-much-worse-than-inflation.html</span></a><span style="font-size: 7.0pt; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>Recession<o:p></o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></i></b><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">Update on Q1 nowcast.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span><a href="https://econbrowser.com/archives/2024/02/forecasts-and-nowcasts"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">https://econbrowser.com/archives/2024/02/forecasts-and-nowcasts</span></a><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span></i></b><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Interest rates are still the biggest short
term risk.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span><a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/interest-rates-are-still-biggest-short-term-risk-nobel-economist/"><span style="font-size: 9.0pt; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">https://www.capitalspectator.com/interest-rates-are-still-biggest-short-term-risk-nobel-economist/</span></a><span style="font-size: 9.0pt; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></i></b><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">Mortgage delinquencies increased in Q4.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span><span style="font-size: 10.0pt; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span><a href="https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2024/02/mba-mortgage-delinquencies-increase-in.html"><span style="font-size: 10.0pt; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2024/02/mba-mortgage-delinquencies-increase-in.html</span></a><span style="font-size: 10.0pt; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>The
Financial System<o:p></o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></i></b><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">Real estate crisis looming over banks.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span><a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2024/02/07/business/dealbook/banks-commercial-real-estate.html"><span style="font-size: 10.0pt; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">https://www.nytimes.com/2024/02/07/business/dealbook/banks-commercial-real-estate.html</span></a><span style="font-size: 10.0pt; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>The
Bond Market<o:p></o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></i></b><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">The real inversion.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span><a href="https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/real-inversion"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/real-inversion</span></a><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>Geopolitics<o:p></o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></i></b><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">Tucker Carlson’s (two hour) interview with
Putin.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><a href="https://www.zerohedge.com/political/tucker-carlson-putin-interview">https://www.zerohedge.com/political/tucker-carlson-putin-interview</a><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Bottom line<o:p></o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span></i></b><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">Does ESG investing
improve performance results?<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span></span><a href="https://politicalcalculations.blogspot.com/2024/02/does-esg-investing-deliver-better.html"><span style="font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">https://politicalcalculations.blogspot.com/2024/02/does-esg-investing-deliver-better.html</span></a><span style="font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span></i></b><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">Markets have been
broken by passive quant investing.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: .5in; text-align: justify;"><a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-02-08/david-einhorn-says-markets-fundamentally-broken-by-passive-quant-investing?srnd=premium&sref=loFkkPMQ"><span style="font-size: 6.0pt; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-02-08/david-einhorn-says-markets-fundamentally-broken-by-passive-quant-investing?srnd=premium&sref=loFkkPMQ</span></a><span style="font-size: 6.0pt; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 6.0pt; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>News on Stocks in Our Portfolios</i></b><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span><o:p></o:p></p>
<div style="background: white; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; margin-left: .5in; margin-right: 0in; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .25pt; mso-element: para-border-div; padding: 0in 0in 0in 25.0pt;">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; border: none; margin-bottom: 15.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .25pt; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-padding-alt: 0in 0in 0in 25.0pt; padding: 0in;"><span style="color: black;">Nike (<span class="ticker-hover-wrapper"><span style="border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .25pt; padding: 0in;"><span style="--tw-border-spacing-x: 0; --tw-border-spacing-y: 0; --tw-ring-color: #3b82f680; --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; --tw-scale-x: 1; --tw-scale-y: 1; --tw-scroll-snap-strictness: proximity; --tw-shadow-colored: 0 0 #0000; --tw-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-skew-x: 0; --tw-skew-y: 0; --tw-translate-x: 0; --tw-translate-y: 0; box-sizing: border-box;">NYSE:<a href="https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/NKE?hasComeFromMpArticle=false&source=content_type%253Areact%257Csection%253Amain_content%257Cbutton%253Abody_link%257Cfirst_level_url%253Anews" style="--tw-border-spacing-x: 0; --tw-border-spacing-y: 0; --tw-ring-color: #3b82f680; --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; --tw-scale-x: 1; --tw-scale-y: 1; --tw-scroll-snap-strictness: proximity; --tw-shadow-colored: 0 0 #0000; --tw-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-skew-x: 0; --tw-skew-y: 0; --tw-translate-x: 0; --tw-translate-y: 0; background-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0); box-sizing: border-box; color: var(--sa-link-color);" title="NIKE, Inc."><span style="text-decoration: none; text-underline: none;">NKE</span></a></span></span></span>) declares <a href="https://seekingalpha.com/pr/19618839-nike-inc-declares-0_370-quarterly-dividend?hasComeFromMpArticle=false&source=content_type%253Areact%257Csection%253Amain_content%257Cbutton%253Abody_link%257Cfirst_level_url%253Anews" style="--tw-border-spacing-x: 0; --tw-border-spacing-y: 0; --tw-ring-color: #3b82f680; --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; --tw-scale-x: 1; --tw-scale-y: 1; --tw-scroll-snap-strictness: proximity; --tw-shadow-colored: 0 0 #0000; --tw-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-skew-x: 0; --tw-skew-y: 0; --tw-translate-x: 0; --tw-translate-y: 0; background-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0); box-sizing: border-box; color: var(--sa-link-color);" target="_blank"><span style="border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .25pt; padding: 0in; text-decoration: none; text-underline: none;">$0.37/share quarterly dividend</span></a>, in line with
previous.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</div>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><u><span style="font-size: 16.0pt;">What
I am reading today</span></u></i></b><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span><span style="font-size: 6.0pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 6.0pt;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<div style="border-bottom: dotted windowtext 3.0pt; border: none; mso-element: para-border-div; padding: 0in 0in 1.0pt 0in;">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="border: none; mso-border-bottom-alt: dotted windowtext 3.0pt; mso-padding-alt: 0in 0in 1.0pt 0in; padding: 0in; text-align: justify;"><o:p> </o:p></p>
</div>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-top: 12.0pt; text-align: justify;">Visit Investing
for Survival’s website (<a href="http://investingforsurvival.com/home">http://investingforsurvival.com/home</a>)
to learn more about our Investment Strategy, Prices Disciplines and Subscriber
Service.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-top: 12.0pt; text-align: justify;"><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-top: 12.0pt; text-align: justify;"><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-top: 12.0pt; text-align: justify;"><o:p> </o:p></p>Steven J Cookhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15993653615335271862noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4670837083672737109.post-8000400601386796102024-02-07T06:08:00.000-08:002024-02-07T06:08:31.606-08:00The Morning Call--Do we really need five or six rate cuts?<p> </p><div style="border-bottom: dotted windowtext 3.0pt; border: none; mso-element: para-border-div; padding: 0in 0in 1.0pt 0in;">
<p align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="border: none; mso-border-bottom-alt: dotted windowtext 3.0pt; mso-padding-alt: 0in 0in 1.0pt 0in; padding: 0in; text-align: center;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="font-size: 24.0pt;">The Morning Call<o:p></o:p></span></i></b></p>
</div>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;">2/7/24<o:p></o:p></p>
<p align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;"><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><u><span style="font-size: 16.0pt;">The
Market</span></u></i></b><span style="font-size: 16.0pt; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><u>Technical</u></i></b></span><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span></i></b><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">Tuesday in the
charts.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span></span><span style="font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><a href="https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/bank-blow-fears-spark-bid-bonds-bullion-bitcoin">https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/bank-blow-fears-spark-bid-bonds-bullion-bitcoin</a><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span></i></b><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">Is 5000 on the S&P
in the cards?<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span></span><span style="font-size: 11.0pt;"><a href="https://realinvestmentadvice.com/sp-index-set-to-hit-5000-as-bull-run-continues/?utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Tuesday%20Takes%20SP%20Index%20Set%20To%20Hit%205000%20As%20Bull%20Run%20Continues&utm_content=Tuesday%20Takes%20SP%20Index%20Set%20To%20Hit%205000%20As%20Bull%20Run%20Continues+CID_1742ae239c3946ae9368a1a13ca0bf89&utm_source=RIA%20Email%20Marketing%20Software&utm_term=READ%20MORE">S&P
Index Set To Hit 5000 As Bull Run Continues - RIA (realinvestmentadvice.com)</a><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></i></b><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><u><span style="font-size: 14.0pt;">Fundamental</span></u></i></b><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Headlines</i></b><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="tab-stops: 41.95pt; text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>The
Economy</i></b><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="tab-stops: 41.95pt; text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="tab-stops: 41.95pt; text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>US</i></b><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 78.0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">Weekly mortgage applications
were up 3.7% while purchase applications were down 0.6%.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 2;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></i></b><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">Month to date retail chain sore sales grew
faster than in the prior week.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 2;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Q4 household debt rose.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 2;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span><span style="font-size: 10.0pt; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><a href="https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2024/02/ny-fed-q4-report-household-debt.html">https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2024/02/ny-fed-q4-report-household-debt.html</a><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 2;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></i></b><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">The December trade balance was -$62.2 billion,
in line.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>International</i></b><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 78.0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">The December
Japanese leading economic indicators were reported at 110.0 versus forecasts of
109.4.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 78.0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 78.0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">December German
industrial production fell 1.6% versus predictions of -0.4%.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 78.0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 78.0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">January Chinese
YoY vehicle sales were up 47.9% versus expectations of up 19.0%.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>Other</i></b><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></i></b><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">Why are companies sitting on so much cash?<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 2;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><a href="https://hbr.org/2024/02/why-are-companies-sitting-on-cash-right-now">https://hbr.org/2024/02/why-are-companies-sitting-on-cash-right-now</a><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>The
Fed<o:p></o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></i></b><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">Does Powell’s (Fed’s) comments mean anything?<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><a href="https://alhambrapartners.com/2024/02/05/market-pulse-skeptically-optimistic/">https://alhambrapartners.com/2024/02/05/market-pulse-skeptically-optimistic/</a><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></i></b><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">Do we really need five or six rate cuts?<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span><span style="font-size: 9.0pt; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><a href="https://investorplace.com/hypergrowthinvesting/2024/02/stocks-only-need-a-few-fed-rate-cuts-to-soar/">https://investorplace.com/hypergrowthinvesting/2024/02/stocks-only-need-a-few-fed-rate-cuts-to-soar/</a><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>Recession<o:p></o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></i></b><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">It’s a moderate growth disinflationary world.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span><span style="font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><a href="https://scottgrannis.blogspot.com/2024/02/its-moderate-growth-disinflationary.html">https://scottgrannis.blogspot.com/2024/02/its-moderate-growth-disinflationary.html</a><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span></i></b><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Global economic growth at seven month high.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span><span style="font-size: 9.0pt; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><a href="https://www.pmi.spglobal.com/Public/Home/PressRelease/56c654c4b5ef4203a0cb93dd9417e436">https://www.pmi.spglobal.com/Public/Home/PressRelease/56c654c4b5ef4203a0cb93dd9417e436</a><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>The
Financial System<o:p></o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></i></b><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">Another potential threat to (Treasury) market
liquidity.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span><span style="font-size: 8.0pt; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><a href="https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/sec-cracks-down-basis-trades-will-force-top-hedge-funds-register-dealers-resulting">https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/sec-cracks-down-basis-trades-will-force-top-hedge-funds-register-dealers-resulting</a><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>The
coronavirus<o:p></o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></i></b><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">New study shows the covid vaccine caused more
deaths than the lives it saved.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span><span style="font-size: 10.0pt; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><a href="https://www.zerohedge.com/medical/mrna-covid-19-vaccines-caused-more-deaths-saved-study">https://www.zerohedge.com/medical/mrna-covid-19-vaccines-caused-more-deaths-saved-study</a><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Bottom line<o:p></o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span></i></b><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">January dividends
by the numbers<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span></span><span style="font-size: 10.0pt; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><a href="https://politicalcalculations.blogspot.com/2024/02/dividends-by-numbers-in-january-2024.html">https://politicalcalculations.blogspot.com/2024/02/dividends-by-numbers-in-january-2024.html</a><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="font-size: 10.0pt;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span></i></b><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">Bonds are still
too expensive.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span><a href="https://www.morningstar.com/bonds/bonds-are-still-too-expensive">https://www.morningstar.com/bonds/bonds-are-still-too-expensive</a><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>Cash
reserves or not?<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span><a href="https://www.ft.com/content/9ed35dcf-7cac-41bd-a16e-6a58b8fb8638">https://www.ft.com/content/9ed35dcf-7cac-41bd-a16e-6a58b8fb8638</a><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>Mutual
fund managers are wrong more than they are right.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span></span><span style="font-size: 10.0pt; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><a href="https://www.morningstar.com/funds/mutual-fund-managers-are-wrong-more-than-theyre-right">https://www.morningstar.com/funds/mutual-fund-managers-are-wrong-more-than-theyre-right</a><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>News on Stocks in Our Portfolios</i></b><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span><o:p></o:p></p>
<div style="background: white; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; margin-left: .5in; margin-right: 0in; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .25pt; mso-element: para-border-div; padding: 0in 0in 0in 25.0pt;">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; border: none; margin-bottom: 15.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .25pt; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-padding-alt: 0in 0in 0in 25.0pt; padding: 0in;"><span style="color: black;">3M (<span class="ticker-hover-wrapper"><span style="border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .25pt; padding: 0in;"><span style="--tw-border-spacing-x: 0; --tw-border-spacing-y: 0; --tw-ring-color: #3b82f680; --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; --tw-scale-x: 1; --tw-scale-y: 1; --tw-scroll-snap-strictness: proximity; --tw-shadow-colored: 0 0 #0000; --tw-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-skew-x: 0; --tw-skew-y: 0; --tw-translate-x: 0; --tw-translate-y: 0; box-sizing: border-box;">NYSE:<a href="https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/MMM?hasComeFromMpArticle=false&source=content_type%253Areact%257Csection%253Amain_content%257Cbutton%253Abody_link%257Cfirst_level_url%253Anews" style="--tw-border-spacing-x: 0; --tw-border-spacing-y: 0; --tw-ring-color: #3b82f680; --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; --tw-scale-x: 1; --tw-scale-y: 1; --tw-scroll-snap-strictness: proximity; --tw-shadow-colored: 0 0 #0000; --tw-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-skew-x: 0; --tw-skew-y: 0; --tw-translate-x: 0; --tw-translate-y: 0; background-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0); box-sizing: border-box; color: var(--sa-link-color);" title="3M Company"><span style="text-decoration: none; text-underline: none;">MMM</span></a></span></span></span>) declares <a href="https://seekingalpha.com/pr/19615251-3m-board-declares-quarterly-dividend?hasComeFromMpArticle=false&source=content_type%253Areact%257Csection%253Amain_content%257Cbutton%253Abody_link%257Cfirst_level_url%253Anews" style="--tw-border-spacing-x: 0; --tw-border-spacing-y: 0; --tw-ring-color: #3b82f680; --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; --tw-scale-x: 1; --tw-scale-y: 1; --tw-scroll-snap-strictness: proximity; --tw-shadow-colored: 0 0 #0000; --tw-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-skew-x: 0; --tw-skew-y: 0; --tw-translate-x: 0; --tw-translate-y: 0; background-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0); box-sizing: border-box; color: var(--sa-link-color);" target="_blank"><span style="border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .25pt; padding: 0in; text-decoration: none; text-underline: none;">$1.51/share quarterly dividend</span></a>, </span><span style="border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; color: green; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .25pt; padding: 0in;">0.7% increase</span><span style="color: black;"> from prior
dividend of $1.50.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; border: none; margin-bottom: 15.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .25pt; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-padding-alt: 0in 0in 0in 25.0pt; padding: 0in;"><span style="color: black;">Mastercard (<span class="ticker-hover-wrapper"><span style="border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .25pt; padding: 0in;"><span style="--tw-border-spacing-x: 0; --tw-border-spacing-y: 0; --tw-ring-color: #3b82f680; --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; --tw-scale-x: 1; --tw-scale-y: 1; --tw-scroll-snap-strictness: proximity; --tw-shadow-colored: 0 0 #0000; --tw-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-skew-x: 0; --tw-skew-y: 0; --tw-translate-x: 0; --tw-translate-y: 0; box-sizing: border-box;">NYSE:<a href="https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/MA?hasComeFromMpArticle=false&source=content_type%253Areact%257Csection%253Amain_content%257Cbutton%253Abody_link%257Cfirst_level_url%253Anews" style="--tw-border-spacing-x: 0; --tw-border-spacing-y: 0; --tw-ring-color: #3b82f680; --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; --tw-scale-x: 1; --tw-scale-y: 1; --tw-scroll-snap-strictness: proximity; --tw-shadow-colored: 0 0 #0000; --tw-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-skew-x: 0; --tw-skew-y: 0; --tw-translate-x: 0; --tw-translate-y: 0; background-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0); box-sizing: border-box; color: var(--sa-link-color);" title="Mastercard Incorporated"><span style="text-decoration: none; text-underline: none;">MA</span></a></span></span></span>) declares <a href="https://seekingalpha.com/pr/19615304-mastercard-board-of-directors-announces-quarterly-dividend?hasComeFromMpArticle=false&source=content_type%253Areact%257Csection%253Amain_content%257Cbutton%253Abody_link%257Cfirst_level_url%253Anews" style="--tw-border-spacing-x: 0; --tw-border-spacing-y: 0; --tw-ring-color: #3b82f680; --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; --tw-scale-x: 1; --tw-scale-y: 1; --tw-scroll-snap-strictness: proximity; --tw-shadow-colored: 0 0 #0000; --tw-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-skew-x: 0; --tw-skew-y: 0; --tw-translate-x: 0; --tw-translate-y: 0; background-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0); box-sizing: border-box; color: var(--sa-link-color);" target="_blank"><span style="border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .25pt; padding: 0in; text-decoration: none; text-underline: none;">$0.66/share quarterly dividend</span></a>, in line with
previous.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</div>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><u><span style="font-size: 16.0pt;">What
I am reading today</span></u></i></b><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span><span style="font-size: 6.0pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 6.0pt;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<div style="border-bottom: dotted windowtext 3.0pt; border: none; mso-element: para-border-div; padding: 0in 0in 1.0pt 0in;">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="border: none; mso-border-bottom-alt: dotted windowtext 3.0pt; mso-padding-alt: 0in 0in 1.0pt 0in; padding: 0in; text-align: justify;"><o:p> </o:p></p>
</div>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-top: 12.0pt; text-align: justify;">Visit Investing
for Survival’s website (<a href="http://investingforsurvival.com/home">http://investingforsurvival.com/home</a>)
to learn more about our Investment Strategy, Prices Disciplines and Subscriber
Service.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-top: 12.0pt; text-align: justify;"><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-top: 12.0pt; text-align: justify;"><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-top: 12.0pt; text-align: justify;"><o:p> </o:p></p>Steven J Cookhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15993653615335271862noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4670837083672737109.post-46746794804991690722024-02-06T06:10:00.000-08:002024-02-06T06:10:33.603-08:00The Morning Call---Market flashes biggest divergence since Black Monday<p> </p><div style="border-bottom: dotted windowtext 3.0pt; border: none; mso-element: para-border-div; padding: 0in 0in 1.0pt 0in;">
<p align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="border: none; mso-border-bottom-alt: dotted windowtext 3.0pt; mso-padding-alt: 0in 0in 1.0pt 0in; padding: 0in; text-align: center;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="font-size: 24.0pt;">The Morning Call<o:p></o:p></span></i></b></p>
</div>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;">2/6/24<o:p></o:p></p>
<p align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;"><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><u><span style="font-size: 16.0pt;">The
Market</span></u></i></b><span style="font-size: 16.0pt; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><u>Technical</u></i></b></span><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span></i></b><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">Monday in the
charts.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span></span><span style="font-size: 8.0pt; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><a href="https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/bonds-bullion-banks-bitcoin-battered-good-news-bad-news-again-after-powell">https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/bonds-bullion-banks-bitcoin-battered-good-news-bad-news-again-after-powell</a><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span></i></b><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">Long term, nothing
is more bullish than all-time highs.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span></span><span style="font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><a href="https://theirrelevantinvestor.com/2024/02/03/nothing-is-more-bullish-than-all-time-highs/">https://theirrelevantinvestor.com/2024/02/03/nothing-is-more-bullish-than-all-time-highs/</a><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span></i></b><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">But short term,
get ready for a dip.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span><a href="https://allstarcharts.com/divergences-add-up-ahead-of-rug-pull/">https://allstarcharts.com/divergences-add-up-ahead-of-rug-pull/</a><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span></i></b><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">Market flashes the
biggest divergence since Black Monday.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span></span><span style="font-size: 9.0pt; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><a href="https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/market-just-flashed-biggest-divergence-black-monday-crash-1987">https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/market-just-flashed-biggest-divergence-black-monday-crash-1987</a><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span></i></b><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">Markets are
anchoring on a potential Trump victory.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span></span><span style="font-size: 7.0pt; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><a href="https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/markets-are-now-anchoring-potential-trump-victory-ex-soros-cio-says-all-pullbacks-should-be">https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/markets-are-now-anchoring-potential-trump-victory-ex-soros-cio-says-all-pullbacks-should-be</a><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></i></b><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><u><span style="font-size: 14.0pt;">Fundamental</span></u></i></b><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Headlines</i></b><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="tab-stops: 41.95pt; text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>The
Economy</i></b><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="tab-stops: 41.95pt; text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="tab-stops: 41.95pt; text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>US</i></b><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 78.0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">The January services
PMI was 52.5 versus estimates of 52.9; the January composite PMI was 52.0
versus 52.3.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 78.0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 6.0pt; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><a href="https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2024/02/05/s-p-global-services-pmi-growth-accelerates-to-7-month-high">https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2024/02/05/s-p-global-services-pmi-growth-accelerates-to-7-month-high</a><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 78.0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 6.0pt; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 78.0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">The January ISM
nonmanufacturing index was 53.4 versus predictions of 52.0.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 2;"> </span></i></b><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span><span style="font-size: 7.0pt; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><a href="https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2024/02/05/ism-services-pmi-expands-for-13th-straight-month">https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2024/02/05/ism-services-pmi-expands-for-13th-straight-month</a><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 7.0pt; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>International</i></b><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 78.0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">December Japanese
household spending fell 0.9% versus consensus of +0.2%; December YoY average cash
earnings were up 1.0% versus +1.3%.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 78.0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 78.0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">December German factory
orders were up 8.9% versus expectations of 0.0%; the December construction PMI
was 36.3 versus 37.4.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 78.0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">The December EU construction
PMI was 41.3 versus forecasts of 44.0; December retail sales fell 1.1% versus
-1.0%.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 78.0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 78.0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">The December UK
construction PMI was 48.8 versus projections of 48.2.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>Other</i></b><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span></span><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">The
Fed<o:p></o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></i></b><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">The Fed is not as powerful as you think.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span><span style="font-size: 7.0pt; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/johntamny/2024/02/04/the-federal-reserves-sizeable-irrelevance-is-the-inflation-lesson/?sh=1a1112925792">https://www.forbes.com/sites/johntamny/2024/02/04/the-federal-reserves-sizeable-irrelevance-is-the-inflation-lesson/?sh=1a1112925792</a><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 7.0pt; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 7.0pt; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span></span><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Fiscal Policy<o:p></o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></i></b><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">Tax increases versus spending cuts.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span><span style="font-size: 9.0pt; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><a href="https://www.clubforgrowth.org/icymi-mcintosh-cass-debate-pro-growth-vs-populist-policies-the-deficit/">https://www.clubforgrowth.org/icymi-mcintosh-cass-debate-pro-growth-vs-populist-policies-the-deficit/</a><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 7.0pt; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 7.0pt; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">The great growth
hoax.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><a href="https://www.zerohedge.com/personal-finance/great-growth-hoax">https://www.zerohedge.com/personal-finance/great-growth-hoax</a><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 7.0pt; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 7.0pt; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">This is how your
government manages your tax dollars.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span><span style="font-size: 10.0pt; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><a href="https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/waste-day-over-1-billion-weapons-missing-ukraine">https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/waste-day-over-1-billion-weapons-missing-ukraine</a><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 7.0pt; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 7.0pt; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span></span><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Recession<o:p></o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span></i></b><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Don’t count on a soft landing.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span><span style="font-size: 8.0pt; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><a href="https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/biggest-risks-facing-world-economy-in-2024-by-kenneth-rogoff-2024-02">https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/biggest-risks-facing-world-economy-in-2024-by-kenneth-rogoff-2024-02</a><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></i></b><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">Update on big four recession indicators.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span><span style="font-size: 8.0pt; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><a href="https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2024/02/02/the-big-four-recession-indicators-january-employment">https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2024/02/02/the-big-four-recession-indicators-january-employment</a><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 7.0pt; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 7.0pt; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span></span><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>More
on the problems in commercial real estate.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span><span style="font-size: 9.0pt; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><a href="https://www.advisorperspectives.com/commentaries/2024/02/04/industrial-size-surplus-john-mauldin">https://www.advisorperspectives.com/commentaries/2024/02/04/industrial-size-surplus-john-mauldin</a><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 9.0pt; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 9.0pt; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span></span><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">The Financial System<o:p></o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></i></b><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Banks reported
tighter lending standards and weaker loan demand.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span><span style="font-size: 7.0pt; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><a href="https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/banks-report-tighter-standards-weaker-loan-demand-some-improvement-financial-conditions">https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/banks-report-tighter-standards-weaker-loan-demand-some-improvement-financial-conditions</a><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 9.0pt; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 7.0pt; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 7.0pt; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span></span><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">War in the Middle East<o:p></o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></i></b><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">More signs of US impotence.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: .5in; text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span><span style="font-size: 6.0pt; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><a href="https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2024/02/more-signs-of-us-impotence-in-middle-east-overkill-yet-ineffective-strikes-deluded-reshaping-the-middle-east-planted-piece-hamas-blame-pre-positioning-for-probably-ceasefire-negotiation-fail.html">https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2024/02/more-signs-of-us-impotence-in-middle-east-overkill-yet-ineffective-strikes-deluded-reshaping-the-middle-east-planted-piece-hamas-blame-pre-positioning-for-probably-ceasefire-negotiation-fail.html</a><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: .5in; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 6.0pt; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 7.0pt; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Bottom line<o:p></o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span></i></b><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">The strong jobs
number confirms the bull thesis for stocks.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span></span><span style="font-size: 8.0pt; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><a href="https://investorplace.com/hypergrowthinvesting/2024/02/strong-jobs-report-confirms-the-2024-bull-thesis-for-stocks/">https://investorplace.com/hypergrowthinvesting/2024/02/strong-jobs-report-confirms-the-2024-bull-thesis-for-stocks/</a><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>News on Stocks in Our Portfolios</i></b><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><u><span style="font-size: 16.0pt;">What
I am reading today</span></u></i></b><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>Quote
of the day.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span><a href="https://cafehayek.com/2024/02/quotation-of-the-day-4534.html">https://cafehayek.com/2024/02/quotation-of-the-day-4534.html</a><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 6.0pt;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<div style="border-bottom: dotted windowtext 3.0pt; border: none; mso-element: para-border-div; padding: 0in 0in 1.0pt 0in;">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="border: none; mso-border-bottom-alt: dotted windowtext 3.0pt; mso-padding-alt: 0in 0in 1.0pt 0in; padding: 0in; text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>You can’t have it both ways.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="border: none; mso-border-bottom-alt: dotted windowtext 3.0pt; mso-padding-alt: 0in 0in 1.0pt 0in; padding: 0in; text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span><a href="https://www.adamsmith.org/blog/exxon-knew">https://www.adamsmith.org/blog/exxon-knew</a><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="border: none; mso-border-bottom-alt: dotted windowtext 3.0pt; mso-padding-alt: 0in 0in 1.0pt 0in; padding: 0in; text-align: justify;"><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="border: none; mso-border-bottom-alt: dotted windowtext 3.0pt; mso-padding-alt: 0in 0in 1.0pt 0in; padding: 0in; text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>How suspicion and intrigue eroded
Alexander’s empire.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="border: none; mso-border-bottom-alt: dotted windowtext 3.0pt; mso-padding-alt: 0in 0in 1.0pt 0in; padding: 0in; text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span><span style="font-size: 11.0pt;"><a href="https://www.nationalgeographic.com/history/history-magazine/article/alexander-the-great-murder-conspiracies-history?rid=7912D7310BBCEE9B958D4BEDCFEC5AE5&cmpid=org%3Dngp%3A%3Amc%3Dcrm-email%3A%3Asrc%3Dngp%3A%3Acmp%3Deditorial%3A%3Aadd%3DDaily_NL_Monday_History_20240205&loggedin=true&rnd=1707167755374">How
suspicion and intrigue eroded Alexander the Great's empire
(nationalgeographic.com)</a><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="border: none; mso-border-bottom-alt: dotted windowtext 3.0pt; mso-padding-alt: 0in 0in 1.0pt 0in; padding: 0in; text-align: justify;"><o:p> </o:p></p>
</div>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-top: 12.0pt; text-align: justify;">Visit Investing
for Survival’s website (<a href="http://investingforsurvival.com/home">http://investingforsurvival.com/home</a>)
to learn more about our Investment Strategy, Prices Disciplines and Subscriber
Service.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-top: 12.0pt; text-align: justify;"><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-top: 12.0pt; text-align: justify;"><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-top: 12.0pt; text-align: justify;"><o:p> </o:p></p>Steven J Cookhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15993653615335271862noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4670837083672737109.post-18878423892228689552024-02-05T06:17:00.000-08:002024-02-05T06:17:50.859-08:00Monday Morning Chartology<p> </p><div style="border-bottom: dotted windowtext 3.0pt; border: none; mso-element: para-border-div; padding: 0in 0in 1.0pt 0in;">
<p align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="border: none; mso-border-bottom-alt: dotted windowtext 3.0pt; mso-padding-alt: 0in 0in 1.0pt 0in; padding: 0in; text-align: center;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="font-size: 24.0pt;">The Morning Call<o:p></o:p></span></i></b></p>
</div>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;">2/5/24<o:p></o:p></p>
<p align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;"><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><u><span style="font-size: 16.0pt;">The
Market</span></u></i></b><span style="font-size: 16.0pt; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><u>Technical<o:p></o:p></u></i></b></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><u><span style="font-size: 14.0pt;"><o:p><span style="text-decoration: none;"> </span></o:p></span></u></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: .5in; text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">The S&P continues
its advance undaunted by a bevy of (what appeared to be) bad news---Powell’s
presser and the nonfarm payrolls number. At the moment, the only visible resistance
are the upper boundaries of its short term uptrend (~4993), its intermediate term
uptrend (~6600) and its long term uptrend (too high to even mention). <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: .5in; text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: .5in; text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">I said last week: </span><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">Given
the economic/political/social issues that I believe are facing us, it is hard for
me to make a call for a dramatically higher Market. But historically, stocks don’t
make a new all-time high after a two year hiatus then suddenly roll over. So it
seems likely that they will climb the proverbial ‘wall of worry’ for some
length of time. <o:p></o:p></span></i></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: .5in; text-align: justify;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p> </o:p></span></i></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: .5in; text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">I see no reason to
argue with the tape. As you know, I bought a position in IWN; and despite its
poor performance last week, I continue to hold it. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: .5in; text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: .5in; text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">On the other hand,
this is a Market phase in which many of our holdings are likely to start
trading into their Sell Half Range. When that occurs, I will act.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: .5in; text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 7.0pt; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 10.0pt; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span></span><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">Still more room to run.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span></span><span style="font-size: 10.0pt; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><a href="https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/tme-weekend-theres-room-add-more-exposure">https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/tme-weekend-theres-room-add-more-exposure</a><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 10.0pt; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>Part
two.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span><a href="https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/if-you-see-bubble-ride-it">https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/if-you-see-bubble-ride-it</a><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-indent: .5in;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhXrXlyxMdF2a99sVq1RYgv3-UJGhhHfIsqpj2xP5yMu8swEYRqoP2wcCmaTWovk65CZlpq_yxehuBA17ngRstpR_AN4_iLFIQ8CNhfHYUW3PQ_veFF6cBtu6Sge7ie1iR2mRDgLTAk8lTDVgX1xHEyDDn3ji_AVcn5DaYYHnU7DcRxcZsKvR4rysUexlk/s1920/sp2524.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1080" data-original-width="1920" height="360" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhXrXlyxMdF2a99sVq1RYgv3-UJGhhHfIsqpj2xP5yMu8swEYRqoP2wcCmaTWovk65CZlpq_yxehuBA17ngRstpR_AN4_iLFIQ8CNhfHYUW3PQ_veFF6cBtu6Sge7ie1iR2mRDgLTAk8lTDVgX1xHEyDDn3ji_AVcn5DaYYHnU7DcRxcZsKvR4rysUexlk/w640-h360/sp2524.jpg" width="640" /></a></div><br /><p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-indent: .5in;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: .5in; text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">The long bond had
a roller coaster week, (1) making two gap up opens, then closing both of them
with a gap down open, (2) successfully challenging its 50 DMA; and is in the process
of challenging its 200 DMA [if it closes above it today, it will reset to support].
In addition, just to add to the confusion, it continues to swing between
inverted and uninverted. I have often said that I thought that the bond market
was smarter than the stock market. Past week’s pin action belie that notion---unless
uncertainty is the correct position. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: .5in; text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: .5in; text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg7ULcvqxKgXirgX3lLVfzloIizXvA7KrPLE-ual2MmvmUsl6lPbcU4Urzd7Ur7bE_AiZSFTg0kDDYOrMRIGijCOBAMxFGTZxXq9zUGBI6FwMsLPFKpVu4vWureSVu6ZH1nW6So7teYyJ_nopL3z1PA-DgHqySC3hC6yyR7h83igLrWaRcetxnUch3omu0/s1920/tlt2524.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1080" data-original-width="1920" height="360" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg7ULcvqxKgXirgX3lLVfzloIizXvA7KrPLE-ual2MmvmUsl6lPbcU4Urzd7Ur7bE_AiZSFTg0kDDYOrMRIGijCOBAMxFGTZxXq9zUGBI6FwMsLPFKpVu4vWureSVu6ZH1nW6So7teYyJ_nopL3z1PA-DgHqySC3hC6yyR7h83igLrWaRcetxnUch3omu0/w640-h360/tlt2524.jpg" width="640" /></a></div><br /> <p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: .5in; text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p><br /></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: .5in; text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">GLD had a volatile
but ultimately trendless last week. There is a lot of positive chatter about
gold, but until it can break above its all-time high, I see no incentive to dabble
in gold.</span><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p></o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: .5in; tab-stops: 60.7pt; text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span><o:p></o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="tab-stops: 60.7pt; text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: .5in; tab-stops: 60.7pt; text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg__784mjb2oFitS9LZuW6t621U5Av5UaGjUBWQWA1Wi-gzhLguD6BlgcKeiD8_p84cTPAUZezfdTr4Tl7uAx2ZAdwoVR0WnyE7-ZhB9V6rptrAJXdVoXwpAELhS6cuPafOoLt8ilTPwQm-DJBZgvDniB7N5zO-yWxqcbV9XkLry8yUUNtMIf8kfHVHJfE/s1920/gld2524.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1080" data-original-width="1920" height="360" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg__784mjb2oFitS9LZuW6t621U5Av5UaGjUBWQWA1Wi-gzhLguD6BlgcKeiD8_p84cTPAUZezfdTr4Tl7uAx2ZAdwoVR0WnyE7-ZhB9V6rptrAJXdVoXwpAELhS6cuPafOoLt8ilTPwQm-DJBZgvDniB7N5zO-yWxqcbV9XkLry8yUUNtMIf8kfHVHJfE/w640-h360/gld2524.jpg" width="640" /></a></i></b></div><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><br /></i></b><p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: .5in; tab-stops: 60.7pt; text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: .5in; text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: .5in; text-align: justify;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">While
the long term uptrend remains in place, the dollar’s short term technical
picture has been wrecked. To be sure, a gap down open of the order of magnitude
shown on the chart begs to be closed. But that will likely take a long time. Expect
a lot of directionless trading over the short to intermediate term. </span></i><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">Clearly, there has
been no directionless trading. The dollar has moved steadily from the lower
left to the upper right. However, it still has a ways to go before resetting
its 50 DMA or its short term downtrend. Its recent behavior is a bit of a
mystery to me. Generally, a strong dollar means weak equity prices; and that
hasn’t been the case. Perhaps it is just the magnetic pull of the gap down open
that is causing this.</span><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p></o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"></i></b></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiUSPzMrDbPzFq6Y9WjHxfhVd4G-MTSo0Sm2pwZ3cvLhViSoNrA3RpH0oj_OPuSnqbGoNEEx4xD0MqRWMoXNd7JaeefKa1K1R5T9dwy-LS2bQT3Nul5MvNN1qlZv30aYnAxOAdkhy8cJfHk28CWoIdZh0bcdfu7ssz72rQswkN202vjmeczraSPi4Guy0M/s1920/uup2524.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1080" data-original-width="1920" height="360" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiUSPzMrDbPzFq6Y9WjHxfhVd4G-MTSo0Sm2pwZ3cvLhViSoNrA3RpH0oj_OPuSnqbGoNEEx4xD0MqRWMoXNd7JaeefKa1K1R5T9dwy-LS2bQT3Nul5MvNN1qlZv30aYnAxOAdkhy8cJfHk28CWoIdZh0bcdfu7ssz72rQswkN202vjmeczraSPi4Guy0M/w640-h360/uup2524.jpg" width="640" /></a></i></b></div><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><br /><o:p><br /></o:p></i></b><p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p><br /></o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span></i></b><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">Friday in the
charts.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span></span><span style="font-size: 9.0pt; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><a href="https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/mega-cap-melts-moar-despite-powell-punch-face-regional-bank-rout">https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/mega-cap-melts-moar-despite-powell-punch-face-regional-bank-rout</a><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span></i></b><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">Three more to consider.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span><a href="https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/3-charts-we-are-watching-rising-rates">https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/3-charts-we-are-watching-rising-rates</a><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></i></b><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><u><span style="font-size: 14.0pt;">Fundamental</span></u></i></b><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Headlines</i></b><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="tab-stops: 41.95pt; text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>The
Economy</i></b><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="tab-stops: 41.95pt; text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="tab-stops: 41.95pt 1.0in 1.5in 2.0in 2.5in center 3.0in; text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 2;"> </span>Week in review<o:p></o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="tab-stops: 41.95pt 1.0in 1.5in 2.0in 2.5in center 3.0in; text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 1.0in; tab-stops: 41.95pt 1.0in 1.5in 2.0in 2.5in center 3.0in; text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">The stats in the
US were mixed though the positive primary indicators outnumbered the negative
two to naught. This included a stunningly higher than expected nonfarm payrolls
reading. This more or less continues an infant streak of upbeat readings---which,
as I noted last week, suggest the hard landing scenario (i.e., recession) is
the least likely alternative. Meanwhile, overseas the data was overwhelmingly
to the plus side.</span><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p></o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 1.0in; tab-stops: 41.95pt 1.0in 1.5in 2.0in 2.5in center 3.0in; text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 1.0in; tab-stops: 41.95pt 1.0in 1.5in 2.0in 2.5in center 3.0in; text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">But there is one
caveat:<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 1.0in; tab-stops: 41.95pt 1.0in 1.5in 2.0in 2.5in center 3.0in; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 10.0pt; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><a href="https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/inside-most-ridiculous-jobs-report-recent-history">https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/inside-most-ridiculous-jobs-report-recent-history</a><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 1.0in; tab-stops: 41.95pt 1.0in 1.5in 2.0in 2.5in center 3.0in; text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 1.0in; tab-stops: 41.95pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">Bottom line:<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 1.0in; tab-stops: 41.95pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoListParagraph" style="margin-left: 1.25in; mso-add-space: auto; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; tab-stops: 41.95pt; text-align: justify; text-indent: -.25in;"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">(1)<span style="font: 7.0pt "Times New Roman";">
</span></span></span><!--[endif]--><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">I think that the inflation risks are behind
us, at least for the short term. However, longer term, I believe that the most
important economic factor is the potential [inflationary] impact of a grossly
irresponsible fiscal policy which if left unresolved will ultimately push
interest rates and inflation to higher levels, risking a tighter monetary
policy and impeding the economy’s ability to grow.<o:p></o:p></span></i></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="tab-stops: 41.95pt; text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 2;"> </span></i></b><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span><span style="font-size: 9.0pt; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpFirst" style="margin-left: 1.25in; mso-add-space: auto; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; tab-stops: 41.95pt; text-align: justify; text-indent: -.25in;"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">(2)<span style="font: 7.0pt "Times New Roman";"> </span></span></span><!--[endif]--><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">The</span><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"> </span></i><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">question of
recession [what kind of landing] is gaining some visibility, in my opinion: no
recession. We still are not at the point that I am ready to alter my forecast;
but we are close. Clearly that is a more upbeat outlook for the economy. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpLast" style="margin-left: 1.25in; mso-add-space: auto; tab-stops: 41.95pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">The $64,000 question is ‘what does it mean for
equities?’<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Judging by the Market’s
reaction to Powell’s comments in his FOMC presser and the nonfarm payroll
number, the news flow apparently doesn’t matter. Right now, investors appear
convinced of a ‘soft landing’ whatever the Fed or the data say. Until that
changes good news is good news and bad news is good news (for stocks).<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="tab-stops: 75.2pt; text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></i></b><span style="font-size: 8.0pt;"><a href="https://realinvestmentadvice.com/retirement-savers-are-piling-into-stocks-is-that-a-good-idea/?utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Macroview%20Retirement%20Savers%20Are%20Piling%20Into%20Stocks%20Is%20That%20A%20Good%20Idea&utm_content=Macroview%20Retirement%20Savers%20Are%20Piling%20Into%20Stocks%20Is%20That%20A%20Good%20Idea+CID_6a0a4173b01717425e23d4b1df1ea9f8&utm_source=RIA%20Email%20Marketing%20Software&utm_term=READ%20MORE">Retirement
Savers Are Piling Into Stocks. Is That A Good Idea? - RIA
(realinvestmentadvice.com)</a><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span></i></b></span><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p></o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="tab-stops: 41.95pt; text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 2;"> </span>US</i></b><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="tab-stops: 71.5pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 6.0pt; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="tab-stops: 71.5pt; text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="font-size: 6.0pt;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>International</i></b><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="tab-stops: 74.15pt; text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span><o:p></o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 74.15pt; tab-stops: 74.15pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">The
December German trade balance was E22.2 billion versus projections of E18.8
billion; the January services PMI was 47.7 versus 47.6; the January composite PMI
47.0 versus 47.1.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 74.15pt; tab-stops: 74.15pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 74.15pt; tab-stops: 74.15pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">The
December EU PPI was -0.8%, in line; the January services PMI was 48.4, also in
line; the January composite PMI was 47.0, also in line.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 74.15pt; tab-stops: 74.15pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 74.15pt; tab-stops: 74.15pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">The
January UK services PMI was 54.3 versus estimates of 53.8; the January
composite PMI was 52.9 versus 52.5.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-indent: .5in;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-indent: .5in;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">The
Fed<o:p></o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-indent: .5in;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-indent: .5in;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Powell reinforces hawkish Fed stance on ’60 Minutes’.</span><span style="font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-indent: .5in;"><span style="font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><a href="https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/powell-tells-60-minutes-fed-not-likely-cut-march">https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/powell-tells-60-minutes-fed-not-likely-cut-march</a><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-indent: .5in;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-indent: .5in;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></i></b><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">Waiting for rate cuts.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-indent: .5in;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><a href="https://www.ft.com/content/5c24ea81-c480-45b7-8e28-e33564b62eaf">https://www.ft.com/content/5c24ea81-c480-45b7-8e28-e33564b62eaf</a><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>Fiscal
Policy<o:p></o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span></i></b><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The senate does what it does best---screw Americans.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span><span style="font-size: 7.0pt; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><a href="https://www.zerohedge.com/political/senate-deal-allows-15-million-illegals-year-slides-23b-ngos-trafficking-them-and-gives">https://www.zerohedge.com/political/senate-deal-allows-15-million-illegals-year-slides-23b-ngos-trafficking-them-and-gives</a><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>Inflation<o:p></o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></i></b><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">What is the right level of inflation?<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><a href="https://klementoninvesting.substack.com/p/whats-the-right-level-of-inflation">https://klementoninvesting.substack.com/p/whats-the-right-level-of-inflation</a><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>The
Financial system<o:p></o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></i></b><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">Bank liquidity shrinking.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><a href="https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/bank">https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/bank</a><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Bottom line.<o:p></o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span></i></b><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">The stock market
is leading the economy a little too much.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span></span><span style="font-size: 10.0pt;"><a href="https://realinvestmentadvice.com/stock-markets-are-leading-the-economy-a-little-too-much/?utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Stock%20Markets%20Are%20Leading%20The%20Economy%20A%20Little%20Too%20Much&utm_content=Stock%20Markets%20Are%20Leading%20The%20Economy%20A%20Little%20Too%20Much+CID_9ebd02854be70fecb1f1c86d8934bf64&utm_source=RIA%20Email%20Marketing%20Software&utm_term=SEE%20THE%20ENTIRE%20REPORT%20HERE">Stock
Markets Are Leading The Economy A Little Too Much - RIA
(realinvestmentadvice.com)</a><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-indent: .5in;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-indent: .5in;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">Markets believe
Powell is a paper tiger.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-indent: .5in;"><span style="font-size: 7.0pt; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><a href="https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/hartnett-regional-bank-crisis-stoking-ai-bubble-because-powell-has-become-paper-tiger">https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/hartnett-regional-bank-crisis-stoking-ai-bubble-because-powell-has-become-paper-tiger</a><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-indent: .5in;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span></i></b><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">More on valuation.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span></span><span style="font-size: 9.0pt; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><a href="https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2024/02/02/buffett-valuation-indicator-january-2024">https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2024/02/02/buffett-valuation-indicator-january-2024</a><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-indent: .5in;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-indent: .5in;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">And still more.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-indent: .5in;"><span style="font-size: 8.0pt; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><a href="https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/when-markets-move-extreme-overvaluations-wild-moves-price-can-happen">https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/when-markets-move-extreme-overvaluations-wild-moves-price-can-happen</a><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-indent: .5in;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-indent: .5in;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">Extending time
horizons is critical to building wealth.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-indent: .5in;"><span style="font-size: 7.0pt; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><a href="https://www.advisorperspectives.com/commentaries/2024/02/02/extending-horizons-icritical-building-wealth-richard-bernstein">https://www.advisorperspectives.com/commentaries/2024/02/02/extending-horizons-icritical-building-wealth-richard-bernstein</a><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-indent: .5in;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>News on Stocks in Our Portfolios</i></b><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span><o:p></o:p></p>
<div style="background: white; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; margin-left: .5in; margin-right: 0in; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .25pt; mso-element: para-border-div; padding: 0in 0in 0in 25.0pt;">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; border: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .25pt; mso-padding-alt: 0in 0in 0in 25.0pt; padding: 0in;"><span style="color: black;">McDonald <a href="https://seekingalpha.com/pr/19612252-mcdonalds-reports-fourth-quarter-and-full-year-2023-results?hasComeFromMpArticle=false&source=content_type%253Areact%257Csection%253Amain_content%257Cbutton%253Abody_link%257Cfirst_level_url%253Anews" style="--tw-border-spacing-x: 0; --tw-border-spacing-y: 0; --tw-ring-color: #3b82f680; --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; --tw-scale-x: 1; --tw-scale-y: 1; --tw-scroll-snap-strictness: proximity; --tw-shadow-colored: 0 0 #0000; --tw-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-skew-x: 0; --tw-skew-y: 0; --tw-translate-x: 0; --tw-translate-y: 0; background-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0); box-sizing: border-box; color: var(--sa-link-color);"><span style="border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .25pt; padding: 0in;">press release</span></a> (<span class="ticker-hover-wrapper"><span style="border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .25pt; padding: 0in;"><span style="--tw-border-spacing-x: 0; --tw-border-spacing-y: 0; --tw-ring-color: #3b82f680; --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; --tw-scale-x: 1; --tw-scale-y: 1; --tw-scroll-snap-strictness: proximity; --tw-shadow-colored: 0 0 #0000; --tw-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-skew-x: 0; --tw-skew-y: 0; --tw-translate-x: 0; --tw-translate-y: 0; box-sizing: border-box;">NYSE:<a href="https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/MCD?hasComeFromMpArticle=false&source=content_type%253Areact%257Csection%253Amain_content%257Cbutton%253Abody_link%257Cfirst_level_url%253Anews" style="--tw-border-spacing-x: 0; --tw-border-spacing-y: 0; --tw-ring-color: #3b82f680; --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; --tw-scale-x: 1; --tw-scale-y: 1; --tw-scroll-snap-strictness: proximity; --tw-shadow-colored: 0 0 #0000; --tw-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-skew-x: 0; --tw-skew-y: 0; --tw-translate-x: 0; --tw-translate-y: 0; background-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0); box-sizing: border-box; color: var(--sa-link-color);" title="McDonald's Corporation">MCD</a></span></span></span>): Q4 Non-GAAP EPS of
$2.95 <span class="green"><span style="border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .25pt; padding: 0in;"><span style="--tw-border-spacing-x: 0; --tw-border-spacing-y: 0; --tw-ring-color: #3b82f680; --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; --tw-scale-x: 1; --tw-scale-y: 1; --tw-scroll-snap-strictness: proximity; --tw-shadow-colored: 0 0 #0000; --tw-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-skew-x: 0; --tw-skew-y: 0; --tw-translate-x: 0; --tw-translate-y: 0; box-sizing: border-box; color: var(--teal-100);">beats by
$0.12</span></span></span>.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; border: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .25pt; mso-padding-alt: 0in 0in 0in 25.0pt; padding: 0in;"><span style="color: black;">Revenue
of $6.41B (+8.1% Y/Y) <span class="red"><span style="border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .25pt; padding: 0in;"><span style="--tw-border-spacing-x: 0; --tw-border-spacing-y: 0; --tw-ring-color: #3b82f680; --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; --tw-scale-x: 1; --tw-scale-y: 1; --tw-scroll-snap-strictness: proximity; --tw-shadow-colored: 0 0 #0000; --tw-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-skew-x: 0; --tw-skew-y: 0; --tw-translate-x: 0; --tw-translate-y: 0; box-sizing: border-box; color: var(--red-100);">misses by
$40M</span></span></span>.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</div>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><u><span style="font-size: 16.0pt;">What
I am reading today</span></u></i></b><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><o:p> </o:p></p>
<div style="border-bottom: dotted windowtext 3.0pt; border: none; mso-element: para-border-div; padding: 0in 0in 1.0pt 0in;">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="border: none; mso-border-bottom-alt: dotted windowtext 3.0pt; mso-padding-alt: 0in 0in 1.0pt 0in; padding: 0in; text-align: justify;"><o:p> </o:p></p>
</div>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-top: 12.0pt; text-align: justify;">Visit Investing
for Survival’s website (<a href="http://investingforsurvival.com/home">http://investingforsurvival.com/home</a>)
to learn more about our Investment Strategy, Prices Disciplines and Subscriber
Service.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-top: 12.0pt; text-align: justify;"><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-top: 12.0pt; text-align: justify;"><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-top: 12.0pt; text-align: justify;"><o:p> </o:p></p>Steven J Cookhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15993653615335271862noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4670837083672737109.post-50715334004585507202024-02-02T06:08:00.000-08:002024-02-02T06:08:25.369-08:00The Morning Call---Thanks for nothing<p></p><div style="border-bottom: dotted windowtext 3.0pt; border: none; mso-element: para-border-div; padding: 0in 0in 1.0pt 0in;">
<p align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="border: none; mso-border-bottom-alt: dotted windowtext 3.0pt; mso-padding-alt: 0in 0in 1.0pt 0in; padding: 0in; text-align: center;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="font-size: 24.0pt;">The Morning Call<o:p></o:p></span></i></b></p>
</div>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;">2/2/24<o:p></o:p></p>
<p align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;"><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><u><span style="font-size: 16.0pt;">The
Market</span></u></i></b><span style="font-size: 16.0pt; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><u>Technical</u></i></b></span><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-indent: .5in;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-indent: .5in;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">Thursday in the
charts.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-indent: .5in;"><span style="font-size: 8.0pt; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><a href="https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/stocks-soar-amid-hopes-regional-bank-crisis-will-lead-early-rate-cut-more-fed-easing">https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/stocks-soar-amid-hopes-regional-bank-crisis-will-lead-early-rate-cut-more-fed-easing</a><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-indent: .5in;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-indent: .5in;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">Time to be short
stocks---this guy has been bullish for the last six months.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-indent: .5in;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><a href="https://allstarcharts.com/why-its-time-to-short-stocks/">https://allstarcharts.com/why-its-time-to-short-stocks/</a><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span></i></b><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">The pain trade is
lower.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span></span><span style="font-size: 10.0pt; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><a href="https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/goldmans-flows-guru-warns-pain-trade-now-lower-here">https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/goldmans-flows-guru-warns-pain-trade-now-lower-here</a><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></i></b><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><u><span style="font-size: 14.0pt;">Fundamental</span></u></i></b><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Headlines</i></b><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="tab-stops: 41.95pt; text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>The
Economy</i></b><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="tab-stops: 41.95pt; text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="tab-stops: 41.95pt; text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>US</i></b><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 2;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>December construction spending was up 0.9%
versus consensus of +0.5%.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 2;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span><span style="font-size: 9.0pt; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><a href="https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2024/02/construction-spending-increased-09-in.html">https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2024/02/construction-spending-increased-09-in.html</a><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 9.0pt; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 78.0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">The January ISM
manufacturing index came in at 49.1 versus projections of 47.0.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 78.0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 6.0pt; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><a href="https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2024/02/01/ism-manufacturing-index-contracts-for-15th-consecutive-month">https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2024/02/01/ism-manufacturing-index-contracts-for-15th-consecutive-month</a><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 78.0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 6.0pt; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 78.0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">The January manufacturing
PMI was 50.7 versus estimates of 47.2.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 78.0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 6.0pt; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><a href="https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2024/02/01/s-p-global-us-manufacturing-pmitm-strongest-improvement-since-september-2022">https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2024/02/01/s-p-global-us-manufacturing-pmitm-strongest-improvement-since-september-2022</a><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 78.0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 6.0pt; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 78.0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">January nonfarm
payrolls grew by 353,000 versus predictions of 180,000; the January unemployment
rate was 3.7% versus 3.8%.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 78.0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 6.0pt; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>International</i></b><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>Other</i></b><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 2;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>December median household income.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="tab-stops: 85.45pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span><span style="font-size: 8.0pt; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><a href="https://politicalcalculations.blogspot.com/2024/02/median-household-income-in-december-2023.html">https://politicalcalculations.blogspot.com/2024/02/median-household-income-in-december-2023.html</a><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="tab-stops: 85.45pt; text-align: justify; text-indent: .5in;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="tab-stops: 85.45pt; text-align: justify; text-indent: .5in;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">The
Fed<o:p></o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="tab-stops: 85.45pt; text-align: justify; text-indent: .5in;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: .5in; tab-stops: 85.45pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">Stop the news
conferences. I tend to agree. They are not just confusing but counterproductive,
i.e., remember in December Powell gave an unexpectedly dovish narrative; Market
roars.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Wednesday it was more hawkish
than anticipated; Market tanks. Thanks for nothing. This is all somewhat reminiscent
of the Bernanke/Yellen ‘on the one hand, on the other hand’ routine. Except all
they did was confuse you. In Powell’s case, he is doing ‘on the one hand’ one
month and Market reacts; then does ‘on the other hand’ at a later time and the
Market gets whiplashed.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="tab-stops: 85.45pt; text-align: justify; text-indent: .5in;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span><span style="font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><a href="https://gregmankiw.blogspot.com/2024/02/memo-to-fed-stop-news-conferences.html">https://gregmankiw.blogspot.com/2024/02/memo-to-fed-stop-news-conferences.html</a><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="tab-stops: 85.45pt; text-align: justify; text-indent: .5in;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="tab-stops: 85.45pt; text-align: justify; text-indent: .5in;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></i></b><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">ECB sees profits and wages to determine
inflation path.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="tab-stops: 85.45pt; text-align: justify; text-indent: .5in;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span><span style="font-size: 6.0pt; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-02-01/ecb-s-lane-sees-profits-and-wages-important-for-inflation-path?srnd=premium&sref=loFkkPMQ">https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-02-01/ecb-s-lane-sees-profits-and-wages-important-for-inflation-path?srnd=premium&sref=loFkkPMQ</a><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="tab-stops: 85.45pt; text-align: justify; text-indent: .5in;"><span style="font-size: 6.0pt; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="tab-stops: 85.45pt; text-align: justify; text-indent: .5in;"><span style="font-size: 6.0pt; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="tab-stops: 85.45pt; text-align: justify; text-indent: .5in;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Bank of England opens door for rate cuts in
2024.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="tab-stops: 85.45pt; text-align: justify; text-indent: .5in;"><span style="font-size: 6.0pt; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-02-01/bank-of-england-signals-rate-cuts-possible-once-inflation-eases?srnd=premium&sref=loFkkPMQ">https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-02-01/bank-of-england-signals-rate-cuts-possible-once-inflation-eases?srnd=premium&sref=loFkkPMQ</a><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="tab-stops: 85.45pt; text-align: justify; text-indent: .5in;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>Fiscal
Policy<o:p></o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 42.0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">Did Trump’s tariffs
help the economy? The author says no; and I agree. However, Trump was attempting
to counter (1) Chinese theft of US intellectual property and (2) NATO’s lack of
self [military] support. There may have been a better way to do either. I won’t
speculate on that; however, there is nothing like hitting someone in their bread
basket to get their attention.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 42.0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 9.0pt; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><a href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2024/01/did-the-trump-tariffs-help-the-heartland.html">https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2024/01/did-the-trump-tariffs-help-the-heartland.html</a><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-indent: .5in;"><span style="font-size: 9.0pt; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 40.5pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">House passes child
credit tax cut---just what the economy needs as the deficit/debt soars.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 40.5pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 6.0pt; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><a href="https://finance.yahoo.com/news/the-us-house-passes-the-bipartisan-tax-deal-to-expand-the-child-tax-credit-up-next-the-senate-013737690.html">https://finance.yahoo.com/news/the-us-house-passes-the-bipartisan-tax-deal-to-expand-the-child-tax-credit-up-next-the-senate-013737690.html</a><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-indent: .5in;"><span style="font-size: 9.0pt; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-indent: .5in;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>And there is more wrong with it than just
jacking up the deficit.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-indent: .5in;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span><span style="font-size: 7.0pt; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/what-the-house-needs-to-know-before-voting-on-the-child-tax-credit-a03bd092?mod=opinion_lead_pos8">https://www.wsj.com/articles/what-the-house-needs-to-know-before-voting-on-the-child-tax-credit-a03bd092?mod=opinion_lead_pos8</a><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-indent: .5in;"><span style="font-size: 9.0pt; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-indent: .5in;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Inflation<o:p></o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-indent: .5in;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-indent: .5in;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></i></b><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">Two measures of inflation.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-indent: .5in;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span><span style="font-size: 9.0pt; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><a href="https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2024/01/31/two-measures-of-inflation-december-2023">https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2024/01/31/two-measures-of-inflation-december-2023</a><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-indent: .5in;"><span style="font-size: 9.0pt; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 9.0pt; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span></span><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Recession<o:p></o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></i></b><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">Update on one measure of the probability of
recession.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span><span style="font-size: 8.0pt; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><a href="https://econbrowser.com/archives/2024/02/probability-of-recession-term-spread-vs-term-spread-dsr-foreign-term-spread">https://econbrowser.com/archives/2024/02/probability-of-recession-term-spread-vs-term-spread-dsr-foreign-term-spread</a><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 42.0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 9.0pt; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Bottomline<o:p></o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span></i></b><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">Update on
valuations.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span></span><span style="font-size: 9.0pt; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><a href="https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2024/02/01/q-ratio-and-market-valuation-january-2024">https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2024/02/01/q-ratio-and-market-valuation-january-2024</a><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 9.0pt; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span></span><span style="font-size: 7.0pt; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><a href="https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2024/02/01/regression-to-trend-s-p-composite-142-above-trend-in-january">https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2024/02/01/regression-to-trend-s-p-composite-142-above-trend-in-january</a><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>News on Stocks in Our Portfolios</i></b><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoTitle"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<div style="background: white; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; margin-left: .5in; margin-right: 0in; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .25pt; mso-element: para-border-div; padding: 0in 0in 0in 25.0pt;">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; border: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .25pt; mso-padding-alt: 0in 0in 0in 25.0pt; padding: 0in;"><span style="color: black;">Apple
(<span class="ticker-hover-wrapper"><span style="border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .25pt; padding: 0in;"><span style="--tw-border-spacing-x: 0; --tw-border-spacing-y: 0; --tw-ring-color: #3b82f680; --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; --tw-scale-x: 1; --tw-scale-y: 1; --tw-scroll-snap-strictness: proximity; --tw-shadow-colored: 0 0 #0000; --tw-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-skew-x: 0; --tw-skew-y: 0; --tw-translate-x: 0; --tw-translate-y: 0; box-sizing: border-box;">NASDAQ:<a href="https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/AAPL?hasComeFromMpArticle=false&source=content_type%253Areact%257Csection%253Amain_content%257Cbutton%253Abody_link%257Cfirst_level_url%253Anews" style="--tw-border-spacing-x: 0; --tw-border-spacing-y: 0; --tw-ring-color: #3b82f680; --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; --tw-scale-x: 1; --tw-scale-y: 1; --tw-scroll-snap-strictness: proximity; --tw-shadow-colored: 0 0 #0000; --tw-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-skew-x: 0; --tw-skew-y: 0; --tw-translate-x: 0; --tw-translate-y: 0; background-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0); box-sizing: border-box; color: var(--sa-link-color);" title="Apple Inc.">AAPL</a></span></span></span>) declares <a href="https://seekingalpha.com/pr/19610984-apple-reports-first-quarter-results?hasComeFromMpArticle=false&source=content_type%253Areact%257Csection%253Amain_content%257Cbutton%253Abody_link%257Cfirst_level_url%253Anews" style="--tw-border-spacing-x: 0; --tw-border-spacing-y: 0; --tw-ring-color: #3b82f680; --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; --tw-scale-x: 1; --tw-scale-y: 1; --tw-scroll-snap-strictness: proximity; --tw-shadow-colored: 0 0 #0000; --tw-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-skew-x: 0; --tw-skew-y: 0; --tw-translate-x: 0; --tw-translate-y: 0; background-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0); box-sizing: border-box; color: var(--sa-link-color);"><span style="border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .25pt; padding: 0in;">$0.24/share quarterly dividend</span></a>, in line with previous.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; border: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .25pt; mso-padding-alt: 0in 0in 0in 25.0pt; padding: 0in;"><span style="color: black;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; border: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .25pt; mso-padding-alt: 0in 0in 0in 25.0pt; padding: 0in;"><span style="color: black;">Apple <a href="https://seekingalpha.com/pr/19610984-apple-reports-first-quarter-results?hasComeFromMpArticle=false&source=content_type%253Areact%257Csection%253Amain_content%257Cbutton%253Abody_link%257Cfirst_level_url%253Anews" style="--tw-border-spacing-x: 0; --tw-border-spacing-y: 0; --tw-ring-color: #3b82f680; --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; --tw-scale-x: 1; --tw-scale-y: 1; --tw-scroll-snap-strictness: proximity; --tw-shadow-colored: 0 0 #0000; --tw-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-skew-x: 0; --tw-skew-y: 0; --tw-translate-x: 0; --tw-translate-y: 0; background-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0); box-sizing: border-box; color: var(--sa-link-color);" target="_blank"><span style="border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .25pt; padding: 0in;">press release</span></a> (<span class="ticker-hover-wrapper"><span style="border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .25pt; padding: 0in;"><span style="--tw-border-spacing-x: 0; --tw-border-spacing-y: 0; --tw-ring-color: #3b82f680; --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; --tw-scale-x: 1; --tw-scale-y: 1; --tw-scroll-snap-strictness: proximity; --tw-shadow-colored: 0 0 #0000; --tw-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-skew-x: 0; --tw-skew-y: 0; --tw-translate-x: 0; --tw-translate-y: 0; box-sizing: border-box;">NASDAQ:<a href="https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/AAPL?hasComeFromMpArticle=false&source=content_type%253Areact%257Csection%253Amain_content%257Cbutton%253Abody_link%257Cfirst_level_url%253Anews" style="--tw-border-spacing-x: 0; --tw-border-spacing-y: 0; --tw-ring-color: #3b82f680; --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; --tw-scale-x: 1; --tw-scale-y: 1; --tw-scroll-snap-strictness: proximity; --tw-shadow-colored: 0 0 #0000; --tw-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-skew-x: 0; --tw-skew-y: 0; --tw-translate-x: 0; --tw-translate-y: 0; background-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0); box-sizing: border-box; color: var(--sa-link-color);" title="Apple Inc.">AAPL</a></span></span></span>): Q1 GAAP EPS of
$2.18 <span class="green"><span style="border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .25pt; padding: 0in;"><span style="--tw-border-spacing-x: 0; --tw-border-spacing-y: 0; --tw-ring-color: #3b82f680; --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; --tw-scale-x: 1; --tw-scale-y: 1; --tw-scroll-snap-strictness: proximity; --tw-shadow-colored: 0 0 #0000; --tw-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-skew-x: 0; --tw-skew-y: 0; --tw-translate-x: 0; --tw-translate-y: 0; box-sizing: border-box; color: var(--teal-100);">beats by
$0.07</span></span></span>.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; border: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .25pt; mso-padding-alt: 0in 0in 0in 25.0pt; padding: 0in;"><span style="color: black;">Revenue
of $119.6B (+2.1% Y/Y) <span class="green"><span style="border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .25pt; padding: 0in;"><span style="--tw-border-spacing-x: 0; --tw-border-spacing-y: 0; --tw-ring-color: #3b82f680; --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; --tw-scale-x: 1; --tw-scale-y: 1; --tw-scroll-snap-strictness: proximity; --tw-shadow-colored: 0 0 #0000; --tw-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-skew-x: 0; --tw-skew-y: 0; --tw-translate-x: 0; --tw-translate-y: 0; box-sizing: border-box; color: var(--teal-100);">beats by
$1.34B</span></span></span>.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</div>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: .5in; text-align: justify;"><span style="background: white; color: black;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: .5in; text-align: justify;"><span style="background: white; color: black;">FactSet Research Systems (</span><span class="ticker-hover-wrapper"><span style="border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .25pt; padding: 0in;"><span style="--tw-border-spacing-x: 0; --tw-border-spacing-y: 0; --tw-ring-color: #3b82f680; --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; --tw-scale-x: 1; --tw-scale-y: 1; --tw-scroll-snap-strictness: proximity; --tw-shadow-colored: 0 0 #0000; --tw-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-skew-x: 0; --tw-skew-y: 0; --tw-translate-x: 0; --tw-translate-y: 0; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; orphans: 2; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;">NYSE:<a href="https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/FDS?hasComeFromMpArticle=false&source=content_type%253Areact%257Csection%253Amain_content%257Cbutton%253Abody_link%257Cfirst_level_url%253Anews" style="--tw-border-spacing-x: 0; --tw-border-spacing-y: 0; --tw-ring-color: #3b82f680; --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; --tw-scale-x: 1; --tw-scale-y: 1; --tw-scroll-snap-strictness: proximity; --tw-shadow-colored: 0 0 #0000; --tw-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-skew-x: 0; --tw-skew-y: 0; --tw-translate-x: 0; --tw-translate-y: 0; background-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0); box-sizing: border-box; color: var(--sa-link-color);" title="FactSet Research Systems Inc.">FDS</a></span></span></span><span style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; float: none; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; orphans: 2; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;">) declares </span><a href="https://seekingalpha.com/pr/19611285-factset-declares-dividend?hasComeFromMpArticle=false&source=content_type%253Areact%257Csection%253Amain_content%257Cbutton%253Abody_link%257Cfirst_level_url%253Anews" style="--tw-border-spacing-x: 0; --tw-border-spacing-y: 0; --tw-ring-color: #3b82f680; --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; --tw-scale-x: 1; --tw-scale-y: 1; --tw-scroll-snap-strictness: proximity; --tw-shadow-colored: 0 0 #0000; --tw-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-skew-x: 0; --tw-skew-y: 0; --tw-translate-x: 0; --tw-translate-y: 0; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: var(--sa-link-color); font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; orphans: 2; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;" target="_blank"><span style="background: white; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .25pt; padding: 0in;">$0.98/share
quarterly dividend</span></a><span style="background: white; color: black;"><span style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; float: none; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; orphans: 2; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;">, in line with previous</span></span><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="tab-stops: 45.65pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span><o:p></o:p></p>
<div style="background: white; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; margin-left: .5in; margin-right: 0in; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .25pt; mso-element: para-border-div; padding: 0in 0in 0in 25.0pt;">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; border: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .25pt; mso-padding-alt: 0in 0in 0in 25.0pt; padding: 0in;"><span style="color: black;">Exxon
Mobil <a href="https://seekingalpha.com/pr/19611266-exxonmobil-announces-2023-results?hasComeFromMpArticle=false&source=content_type%253Areact%257Csection%253Amain_content%257Cbutton%253Abody_link%257Cfirst_level_url%253Anews" style="--tw-border-spacing-x: 0; --tw-border-spacing-y: 0; --tw-ring-color: #3b82f680; --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; --tw-scale-x: 1; --tw-scale-y: 1; --tw-scroll-snap-strictness: proximity; --tw-shadow-colored: 0 0 #0000; --tw-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-skew-x: 0; --tw-skew-y: 0; --tw-translate-x: 0; --tw-translate-y: 0; background-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0); box-sizing: border-box; color: var(--sa-link-color);" target="_blank"><span style="border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .25pt; padding: 0in;">press release</span></a> (<span class="ticker-hover-wrapper"><span style="border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .25pt; padding: 0in;"><span style="--tw-border-spacing-x: 0; --tw-border-spacing-y: 0; --tw-ring-color: #3b82f680; --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; --tw-scale-x: 1; --tw-scale-y: 1; --tw-scroll-snap-strictness: proximity; --tw-shadow-colored: 0 0 #0000; --tw-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-skew-x: 0; --tw-skew-y: 0; --tw-translate-x: 0; --tw-translate-y: 0; box-sizing: border-box;">NYSE:<a href="https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/XOM?hasComeFromMpArticle=false&source=content_type%253Areact%257Csection%253Amain_content%257Cbutton%253Abody_link%257Cfirst_level_url%253Anews" style="--tw-border-spacing-x: 0; --tw-border-spacing-y: 0; --tw-ring-color: #3b82f680; --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; --tw-scale-x: 1; --tw-scale-y: 1; --tw-scroll-snap-strictness: proximity; --tw-shadow-colored: 0 0 #0000; --tw-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-skew-x: 0; --tw-skew-y: 0; --tw-translate-x: 0; --tw-translate-y: 0; background-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0); box-sizing: border-box; color: var(--sa-link-color);" title="Exxon Mobil Corporation">XOM</a></span></span></span>): Q4 Non-GAAP EPS of
$2.48 <span class="green"><span style="border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .25pt; padding: 0in;"><span style="--tw-border-spacing-x: 0; --tw-border-spacing-y: 0; --tw-ring-color: #3b82f680; --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; --tw-scale-x: 1; --tw-scale-y: 1; --tw-scroll-snap-strictness: proximity; --tw-shadow-colored: 0 0 #0000; --tw-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-skew-x: 0; --tw-skew-y: 0; --tw-translate-x: 0; --tw-translate-y: 0; box-sizing: border-box; color: var(--teal-100);">beats by
$0.27</span></span></span>.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; border: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .25pt; mso-padding-alt: 0in 0in 0in 25.0pt; padding: 0in;"><span style="color: black;">Revenue
of $84.34B (-11.6% Y/Y) </span><span class="red"><span style="border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; color: black; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .25pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-theme-font: major-fareast; padding: 0in;"><span style="--tw-border-spacing-x: 0; --tw-border-spacing-y: 0; --tw-ring-color: #3b82f680; --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; --tw-scale-x: 1; --tw-scale-y: 1; --tw-scroll-snap-strictness: proximity; --tw-shadow-colored: 0 0 #0000; --tw-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-skew-x: 0; --tw-skew-y: 0; --tw-translate-x: 0; --tw-translate-y: 0; box-sizing: border-box; color: var(--red-100);">misses by
$4.48B</span></span></span><span style="color: black;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; border: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .25pt; mso-padding-alt: 0in 0in 0in 25.0pt; padding: 0in;"><span style="color: black;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; border: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .25pt; mso-padding-alt: 0in 0in 0in 25.0pt; padding: 0in;"><span style="color: black;">Exxon
Mobil (<span class="ticker-hover-wrapper"><span style="border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .25pt; padding: 0in;"><span style="--tw-border-spacing-x: 0; --tw-border-spacing-y: 0; --tw-ring-color: #3b82f680; --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; --tw-scale-x: 1; --tw-scale-y: 1; --tw-scroll-snap-strictness: proximity; --tw-shadow-colored: 0 0 #0000; --tw-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-skew-x: 0; --tw-skew-y: 0; --tw-translate-x: 0; --tw-translate-y: 0; box-sizing: border-box;">NYSE:<a href="https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/XOM?hasComeFromMpArticle=false&source=content_type%253Areact%257Csection%253Amain_content%257Cbutton%253Abody_link%257Cfirst_level_url%253Anews" style="--tw-border-spacing-x: 0; --tw-border-spacing-y: 0; --tw-ring-color: #3b82f680; --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; --tw-scale-x: 1; --tw-scale-y: 1; --tw-scroll-snap-strictness: proximity; --tw-shadow-colored: 0 0 #0000; --tw-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-skew-x: 0; --tw-skew-y: 0; --tw-translate-x: 0; --tw-translate-y: 0; background-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0); box-sizing: border-box; color: var(--sa-link-color);" title="Exxon Mobil Corporation">XOM</a></span></span></span>) declares <a href="https://seekingalpha.com/pr/19611266-exxonmobil-announces-2023-results?hasComeFromMpArticle=false&source=content_type%253Areact%257Csection%253Amain_content%257Cbutton%253Abody_link%257Cfirst_level_url%253Anews" style="--tw-border-spacing-x: 0; --tw-border-spacing-y: 0; --tw-ring-color: #3b82f680; --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; --tw-scale-x: 1; --tw-scale-y: 1; --tw-scroll-snap-strictness: proximity; --tw-shadow-colored: 0 0 #0000; --tw-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-skew-x: 0; --tw-skew-y: 0; --tw-translate-x: 0; --tw-translate-y: 0; background-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0); box-sizing: border-box; color: var(--sa-link-color);"><span style="border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .25pt; padding: 0in;">$0.95/share quarterly dividend</span></a>, in line with previous.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</div>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><u><span style="font-size: 16.0pt;">What
I am reading today</span></u></i></b><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span><span style="font-size: 6.0pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 6.0pt;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<div style="border-bottom: dotted windowtext 3.0pt; border: none; mso-element: para-border-div; padding: 0in 0in 1.0pt 0in;">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="border: none; mso-border-bottom-alt: dotted windowtext 3.0pt; mso-padding-alt: 0in 0in 1.0pt 0in; padding: 0in; text-align: justify;"><o:p> </o:p></p>
</div>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-top: 12.0pt; text-align: justify;">Visit Investing
for Survival’s website (<a href="http://investingforsurvival.com/home">http://investingforsurvival.com/home</a>)
to learn more about our Investment Strategy, Prices Disciplines and Subscriber
Service.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-top: 12.0pt; text-align: justify;"><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-top: 12.0pt; text-align: justify;"><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-top: 12.0pt; text-align: justify;"><o:p> </o:p></p><br /><p></p>Steven J Cookhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15993653615335271862noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4670837083672737109.post-81119200870358173482024-02-01T06:05:00.000-08:002024-02-01T06:05:41.833-08:00The Morning Call---the Fed changes its narrative---again<p></p><div style="border-bottom: dotted windowtext 3.0pt; border: none; mso-element: para-border-div; padding: 0in 0in 1.0pt 0in;">
<p align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="border: none; mso-border-bottom-alt: dotted windowtext 3.0pt; mso-padding-alt: 0in 0in 1.0pt 0in; padding: 0in; text-align: center;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="font-size: 24.0pt;">The Morning Call<o:p></o:p></span></i></b></p>
</div>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;">2/1/24<o:p></o:p></p>
<p align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;"><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><u><span style="font-size: 16.0pt;">The
Market</span></u></i></b><span style="font-size: 16.0pt; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><u>Technical</u></i></b></span><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>Wednesday
in the charts.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span></span><span style="font-size: 8.0pt; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><a href="https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/stocks-bonds-bullion-puke-after-powell-pummels-dovish-dreamers-assails-ai">https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/stocks-bonds-bullion-puke-after-powell-pummels-dovish-dreamers-assails-ai</a><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="tab-stops: 48.9pt; text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span><o:p></o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="tab-stops: 48.9pt; text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></i></b><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">More volatility?<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="tab-stops: 48.9pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><a href="https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/losing-it-0">https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/losing-it-0</a><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="tab-stops: 48.9pt; text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span></i></b><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">The Animal Spirits
Index.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span></span><span style="font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><a href="https://econbrowser.com/archives/2024/01/sentiment-confidence-news-january-2024">https://econbrowser.com/archives/2024/01/sentiment-confidence-news-january-2024</a><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>Euphoria
meets reality.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span><a href="https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/euphoria-meets-reality">https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/euphoria-meets-reality</a><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-indent: .5in;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></i></b><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><u><span style="font-size: 14.0pt;">Fundamental</span></u></i></b><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Headlines</i></b><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="tab-stops: 60.2pt; text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span><o:p></o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="tab-stops: 41.95pt; text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>US</i></b><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="tab-stops: 76.85pt; text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span><o:p></o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="tab-stops: 76.85pt; text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span></i></b><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">Weekly initial
jobless claims totaled 224,000 versus estimates of 212,000.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="tab-stops: 76.85pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 76.85pt; tab-stops: 76.85pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">Q1
preliminary nonfarm productivity rose 3.2% versus expectations of +2.5%; unit
labor costs were up 0.5% versus +1.6%.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="tab-stops: 76.85pt; text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>International</i></b><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="tab-stops: 1.0in; text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span><o:p></o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 1.0in; tab-stops: 1.0in; text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">The December EU unemployment
rate was 6.4%, in line; the January CPI was -0.4% versus -0.3%.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="tab-stops: 1.0in; text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 1.0in; tab-stops: 1.0in; text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">The January
Japanese manufacturing PMI was 48.0, in line; the January Chinese Caixin
manufacturing PMI was 50.8 versus 50.6; the January German manufacturing PMI was
45.5 versus 45.4; the January EU manufacturing PMI was 46.6, in line; the January
UK manufacturing PMI was 47.0 versus 46.9.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 1.0in; tab-stops: 1.0in; text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p></o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>Other</i></b><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="tab-stops: 26.85pt; text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span><o:p></o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="tab-stops: 26.85pt; text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>The Fed<o:p></o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="tab-stops: 26.85pt; text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: .5in; tab-stops: 26.85pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">The FOMC wound up
its January meeting. The subsequent statement was more hawkish than generally
expected. Plus, in Powell’s presser that followed, he stated that there likely
would not be a rate cut in March---much to the chagrin of the Market.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: .5in; tab-stops: 26.85pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><a href="https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/fomc-13">https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/fomc-13</a><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: .5in; tab-stops: 26.85pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: .5in; tab-stops: 26.85pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">The Bank of
England follows suit.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: .5in; tab-stops: 26.85pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><a href="https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/cable-rallies-after-hawkish-pivot-bank-england">https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/cable-rallies-after-hawkish-pivot-bank-england</a><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: .5in; tab-stops: 26.85pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: .5in; tab-stops: 26.85pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">Powell has to play
politics to keep his job.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="tab-stops: 26.85pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span></span><span style="font-size: 9.0pt; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><a href="https://www.heritage.org/monetary-policy/commentary/the-feds-powell-will-have-play-politics-keep-his-job">https://www.heritage.org/monetary-policy/commentary/the-feds-powell-will-have-play-politics-keep-his-job</a><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 9.0pt; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 9.0pt; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span></span><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">Dueling ‘shorts.’<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span></span><span style="font-size: 8.0pt; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><a href="https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/doublelines-gundlach-doubles-down-recession-other-big-short-now-blissfully-long">https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/doublelines-gundlach-doubles-down-recession-other-big-short-now-blissfully-long</a><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The Financial System<o:p></o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>Are the dominoes starting to fall?<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span></span><span style="font-size: 9.0pt; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><a href="https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/dominos-after-nycb-japan-bank-implodes-massive-us-cre-writedown">https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/dominos-after-nycb-japan-bank-implodes-massive-us-cre-writedown</a><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>News on Stocks in Our Portfolios</i></b><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="color: black; font-family: Roboto;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<div style="background: white; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; margin-left: .5in; margin-right: 0in; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .25pt; mso-element: para-border-div; padding: 0in 0in 0in 25.0pt;">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; border: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .25pt; mso-padding-alt: 0in 0in 0in 25.0pt; padding: 0in;"><span style="color: black;">C.H.
Robinson Worldwide <a href="https://seekingalpha.com/pr/19608919-c-h-robinson-reports-2023-fourth-quarter-results?hasComeFromMpArticle=false&source=content_type%253Areact%257Csection%253Amain_content%257Cbutton%253Abody_link%257Cfirst_level_url%253Anews" style="--tw-border-spacing-x: 0; --tw-border-spacing-y: 0; --tw-ring-color: #3b82f680; --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; --tw-scale-x: 1; --tw-scale-y: 1; --tw-scroll-snap-strictness: proximity; --tw-shadow-colored: 0 0 #0000; --tw-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-skew-x: 0; --tw-skew-y: 0; --tw-translate-x: 0; --tw-translate-y: 0; background-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0); box-sizing: border-box; color: var(--sa-link-color);" target="_blank"><span style="border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .25pt; padding: 0in;">press release</span></a> (<span class="ticker-hover-wrapper"><span style="border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .25pt; padding: 0in;"><span style="--tw-border-spacing-x: 0; --tw-border-spacing-y: 0; --tw-ring-color: #3b82f680; --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; --tw-scale-x: 1; --tw-scale-y: 1; --tw-scroll-snap-strictness: proximity; --tw-shadow-colored: 0 0 #0000; --tw-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-skew-x: 0; --tw-skew-y: 0; --tw-translate-x: 0; --tw-translate-y: 0; box-sizing: border-box;">NASDAQ:<a href="https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/CHRW?hasComeFromMpArticle=false&source=content_type%253Areact%257Csection%253Amain_content%257Cbutton%253Abody_link%257Cfirst_level_url%253Anews" style="--tw-border-spacing-x: 0; --tw-border-spacing-y: 0; --tw-ring-color: #3b82f680; --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; --tw-scale-x: 1; --tw-scale-y: 1; --tw-scroll-snap-strictness: proximity; --tw-shadow-colored: 0 0 #0000; --tw-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-skew-x: 0; --tw-skew-y: 0; --tw-translate-x: 0; --tw-translate-y: 0; background-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0); box-sizing: border-box; color: var(--sa-link-color);" title="C.H. Robinson Worldwide, Inc.">CHRW</a></span></span></span>): Q4 Non-GAAP EPS of
$0.50 </span><span style="border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; color: red; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .25pt; padding: 0in;">misses by $0.31</span><span style="color: black;">.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; border: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .25pt; mso-padding-alt: 0in 0in 0in 25.0pt; padding: 0in;"><span style="color: black;">Revenue
of $4.22B (-16.7% Y/Y) </span><span style="border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; color: red; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .25pt; padding: 0in;">misses by $100M</span><span style="color: black;">.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; border: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .25pt; mso-padding-alt: 0in 0in 0in 25.0pt; padding: 0in;"><span style="color: black;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; border: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .25pt; mso-padding-alt: 0in 0in 0in 25.0pt; padding: 0in;"><span style="color: black;">Altria <a href="https://seekingalpha.com/pr/19609550-altria-reports-2023-fourth-quarter-and-full-year-results-provides-2024-full-year-earnings?hasComeFromMpArticle=false&source=content_type%253Areact%257Csection%253Amain_content%257Cbutton%253Abody_link%257Cfirst_level_url%253Anews" style="--tw-border-spacing-x: 0; --tw-border-spacing-y: 0; --tw-ring-color: #3b82f680; --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; --tw-scale-x: 1; --tw-scale-y: 1; --tw-scroll-snap-strictness: proximity; --tw-shadow-colored: 0 0 #0000; --tw-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-skew-x: 0; --tw-skew-y: 0; --tw-translate-x: 0; --tw-translate-y: 0; background-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0); box-sizing: border-box; color: var(--sa-link-color);"><span style="border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .25pt; padding: 0in;">press release</span></a> (<span class="ticker-hover-wrapper"><span style="border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .25pt; padding: 0in;"><span style="--tw-border-spacing-x: 0; --tw-border-spacing-y: 0; --tw-ring-color: #3b82f680; --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; --tw-scale-x: 1; --tw-scale-y: 1; --tw-scroll-snap-strictness: proximity; --tw-shadow-colored: 0 0 #0000; --tw-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-skew-x: 0; --tw-skew-y: 0; --tw-translate-x: 0; --tw-translate-y: 0; box-sizing: border-box;">NYSE:<a href="https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/MO?hasComeFromMpArticle=false&source=content_type%253Areact%257Csection%253Amain_content%257Cbutton%253Abody_link%257Cfirst_level_url%253Anews" style="--tw-border-spacing-x: 0; --tw-border-spacing-y: 0; --tw-ring-color: #3b82f680; --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; --tw-scale-x: 1; --tw-scale-y: 1; --tw-scroll-snap-strictness: proximity; --tw-shadow-colored: 0 0 #0000; --tw-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-skew-x: 0; --tw-skew-y: 0; --tw-translate-x: 0; --tw-translate-y: 0; background-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0); box-sizing: border-box; color: var(--sa-link-color);" title="Altria Group, Inc.">MO</a></span></span></span>): Q4 Non-GAAP EPS of
$1.18 in-line.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; border: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .25pt; mso-padding-alt: 0in 0in 0in 25.0pt; padding: 0in;"><span style="color: black;">Revenue
of $5.02B (-1.2% Y/Y) <span class="red"><span style="border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .25pt; padding: 0in;"><span style="--tw-border-spacing-x: 0; --tw-border-spacing-y: 0; --tw-ring-color: #3b82f680; --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; --tw-scale-x: 1; --tw-scale-y: 1; --tw-scroll-snap-strictness: proximity; --tw-shadow-colored: 0 0 #0000; --tw-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-skew-x: 0; --tw-skew-y: 0; --tw-translate-x: 0; --tw-translate-y: 0; box-sizing: border-box; color: var(--red-100);">misses by
$60M</span></span></span>.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</div>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-indent: .5in;"><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><u><span style="font-size: 16.0pt;">What
I am reading today</span></u></i></b><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span><span style="font-size: 6.0pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 6.0pt;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span></span>Teaching
gratitude to your kids.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span><a href="https://www.whitecoatinvestor.com/teaching-gratitude-to-your-kids/">https://www.whitecoatinvestor.com/teaching-gratitude-to-your-kids/</a><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>The
mysterious life of Buddha.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span><span style="font-size: 11.0pt;"><a href="https://www.nationalgeographic.com/history/history-magazine/article/buddha-birthplace-yields-clues-about-mysterious-life?rid=7912D7310BBCEE9B958D4BEDCFEC5AE5&cmpid=org=ngp::mc=crm-email::src=ngp::cmp=editorial::add=Daily_NL_Tuesday_History_20240130">The
Buddha's birthplace grants insights about his life and times
(nationalgeographic.com)</a><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>In
praise of non-conformity.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span><span style="font-size: 10.0pt;"><a href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2024/01/in-praise-of-non-conformity.html">https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2024/01/in-praise-of-non-conformity.html</a><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 10.0pt;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="tab-stops: 45.15pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Climate change and faulty temperature
readings.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="tab-stops: 45.15pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span style="font-size: 8.0pt;"><a href="https://www.zerohedge.com/energy/trillions-spent-climate-change-based-faulty-temperature-data-climate-experts-say">https://www.zerohedge.com/energy/trillions-spent-climate-change-based-faulty-temperature-data-climate-experts-say</a><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="tab-stops: 45.15pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 8.0pt;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-top: 12.0pt; text-align: justify;">Visit Investing
for Survival’s website (<a href="http://investingforsurvival.com/home">http://investingforsurvival.com/home</a>)
to learn more about our Investment Strategy, Prices Disciplines and Subscriber
Service.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-top: 12.0pt; text-align: justify;"><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-top: 12.0pt; text-align: justify;"><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-top: 12.0pt; text-align: justify;"><o:p> </o:p></p><br /><p></p>Steven J Cookhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15993653615335271862noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4670837083672737109.post-40289831844856325262024-01-31T06:14:00.000-08:002024-01-31T06:14:36.300-08:00The Morning Call---The economy is improving in spite of the Fed<p> </p><div style="border-bottom: dotted windowtext 3.0pt; border: none; mso-element: para-border-div; padding: 0in 0in 1.0pt 0in;">
<p align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="border: none; mso-border-bottom-alt: dotted windowtext 3.0pt; mso-padding-alt: 0in 0in 1.0pt 0in; padding: 0in; text-align: center;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="font-size: 24.0pt;">The Morning Call<o:p></o:p></span></i></b></p>
</div>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;">1/31/24<o:p></o:p></p>
<p align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;"><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><u><span style="font-size: 16.0pt;">The
Market</span></u></i></b><span style="font-size: 16.0pt; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><u>Technical</u></i></b></span><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-indent: .5in;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-indent: .5in;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">Tuesday in the
charts.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-indent: .5in;"><a href="https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/yields-jolted-higher-stocks-lower-ahead-fedtreasury"><span style="font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/yields-jolted-higher-stocks-lower-ahead-fedtreasury</span></a><span style="font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-indent: .5in;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-indent: .5in;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">Are we nearing a
correction?<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-indent: .5in;"><a href="https://allstarcharts.com/when-does-this-bull-market-end/"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">https://allstarcharts.com/when-does-this-bull-market-end/</span></a><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-indent: .5in;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-indent: .5in;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">Overshoots.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-indent: .5in;"><span style="font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><a href="https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/overshoots-front-running-and-decoupling">https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/overshoots-front-running-and-decoupling</a><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-indent: .5in;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-indent: .5in;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">JP Morgan warns today’s
market similar to Dot com peak.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-indent: .5in;"><a href="https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/jpmorgan-warns-todays-market-far-more-similar-one-may-think-dotcom-bubble-peak"><span style="font-size: 8.0pt; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/jpmorgan-warns-todays-market-far-more-similar-one-may-think-dotcom-bubble-peak</span></a><span style="font-size: 8.0pt; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-indent: .5in;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-indent: .5in;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">Counterpoint: It
is not just tech that is driving this market.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-indent: .5in;"><a href="https://allstarcharts.com/only-tech-driving-this-market/"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">https://allstarcharts.com/only-tech-driving-this-market/</span></a><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-indent: .5in;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-indent: .5in;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">Inverse panic?<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-indent: .5in;"><a href="https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/are-we-skipping-fomo-and-going-straight-inverse-panic"><span style="font-size: 9.0pt; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/are-we-skipping-fomo-and-going-straight-inverse-panic</span></a><span style="font-size: 9.0pt; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-indent: .5in;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-indent: .5in;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">Despite geopolitical
threats, stocks still lean toward risk-on.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-indent: .5in;"><a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/despite-geopolitical-threats-markets-still-lean-into-risk-on/"><span style="font-size: 10.0pt; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">https://www.capitalspectator.com/despite-geopolitical-threats-markets-still-lean-into-risk-on/</span></a><span style="font-size: 10.0pt; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-indent: .5in;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></i></b><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><u><span style="font-size: 14.0pt;">Fundamental</span></u></i></b><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Headlines</i></b><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="tab-stops: 41.95pt; text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>The
Economy</i></b><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="tab-stops: 41.95pt; text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="tab-stops: 41.95pt; text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>US<o:p></o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="tab-stops: 41.95pt; text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 1.0in; tab-stops: 41.95pt; text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></i></b><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">Weekly mortgage applications fell 7.2% while purchase
applications were down 11.4%.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="tab-stops: .5in 94.55pt; text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 2;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></i></b><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">Month to date retail chain store sales grew
slower than in the prior week.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 78.0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">The November Case
Shiller home price index fell 0.2% versus expectations of +0.2%.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 78.0pt; text-align: justify;"><a href="https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2024/01/30/sp-case-shiller-home-price-index-upward-trend-decelerates-november-2023"><span style="font-size: 6.0pt; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2024/01/30/sp-case-shiller-home-price-index-upward-trend-decelerates-november-2023</span></a><span style="font-size: 6.0pt; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 78.0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 6.0pt; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 78.0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">December job
openings (JOLTS) totaled 9.03 million versus predictions of 8.87 million.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 78.0pt; text-align: justify;"><a href="https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2024/01/30/job-openings-jolts-december-2023"><span style="font-size: 8.0pt; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2024/01/30/job-openings-jolts-december-2023</span></a><span style="font-size: 8.0pt; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 78.0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 8.0pt; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 78.0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">The January
consumer confidence index came in at 114.8 versus consensus of 115.0.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 2;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></i></b><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span><a href="https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2024/01/30/consumer-confidence-hits-two-year-high"><span style="font-size: 8.0pt; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2024/01/30/consumer-confidence-hits-two-year-high</span></a><span style="font-size: 8.0pt; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="font-size: 8.0pt;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 75.75pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">The January ADP
private payroll report showed a total of 107,000 new jobs versus estimates of
145,000.</span><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="font-size: 8.0pt;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="font-size: 8.0pt;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 2;"> </span></span></i></b><span style="font-size: 8.0pt; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span><span style="font-size: 10.0pt; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><a href="https://www.zerohedge.com/personal-finance/adp-employment-report-job-gains-slowing">https://www.zerohedge.com/personal-finance/adp-employment-report-job-gains-slowing</a><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 10.0pt; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>International</i></b><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-indent: .5in;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 1.0in; text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">December Japanese
preliminary industrial production was up 1.8% versus forecasts of +2.5%; December
retail sales declined 2.9% versus +0.5%; the January consumer confidence index
was 38.0 versus 37.7; January YoY housing starts were -4.0% versus -6.2%; the
January YoY construction orders were up 0.4% versus +1.1%.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 1.0in; text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 1.0in; text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">December German retail
sales were down 1.6% versus projections of up 0.7%; the January unemployment
rate was 5.8% versus 5.9%; January CPI was -0.2% versus -0.1%. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-indent: .5in;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 1.0in; text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">The January
Chinese manufacturing PMI was 49.2, in line; the January nonmanufacturing PMI
was 50.7 versus 50.6; the January composite PMI was 50.9 versus 50.1.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 1.0in; text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>The
Fed<o:p></o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></i></b><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">The economy is improving not because of the
Fed but in spite of it.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span><a href="https://alhambrapartners.com/2024/01/28/weekly-market-pulse-surprises/"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">https://alhambrapartners.com/2024/01/28/weekly-market-pulse-surprises/</span></a><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-indent: .5in;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-indent: .5in;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Why cut rates in an economy this strong?<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-indent: .5in;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span><a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2024/01/30/business/economy/fed-interest-rates.html"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">https://www.nytimes.com/2024/01/30/business/economy/fed-interest-rates.html</span></a><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="tab-stops: 60.7pt; text-align: justify; text-indent: .5in;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span><o:p></o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="tab-stops: 60.7pt; text-align: justify; text-indent: .5in;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></i></b><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">The Fed is pushing banks to utilize the
discount window for liquidity needs.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="tab-stops: 60.7pt; text-align: justify; text-indent: .5in;"><span style="font-size: 9.0pt; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><a href="https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/fed-prepares-bank-crisis-while-telling-americans-economy-strong">https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/fed-prepares-bank-crisis-while-telling-americans-economy-strong</a><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="tab-stops: 60.7pt; text-align: justify; text-indent: .5in;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>Fiscal
Policy<o:p></o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span></i></b><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The usurpation of resources.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span><a href="https://www.realclearmarkets.com/articles/2024/01/30/the_crisis_is_not_the_debt_reckoning_its_the_extraction_that_leads_to_it_1007447.html"><span style="font-size: 6.0pt; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">https://www.realclearmarkets.com/articles/2024/01/30/the_crisis_is_not_the_debt_reckoning_its_the_extraction_that_leads_to_it_1007447.html</span></a><span style="font-size: 6.0pt; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span></i></b><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Want more production (Mr. Trump), support
free trade.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span><a href="https://cafehayek.com/2024/01/want-more-production-support-free-trade.html"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">https://cafehayek.com/2024/01/want-more-production-support-free-trade.html</span></a><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></i></b><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">Senate republicans cut deal with Biden over immigration/Ukraine
funding.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span><a href="https://www.zerohedge.com/political/bidens-trojan-horse-immigration-deal-would-allow-another-18-million-migrants"><span style="font-size: 8.0pt; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">https://www.zerohedge.com/political/bidens-trojan-horse-immigration-deal-would-allow-another-18-million-migrants</span></a><span style="font-size: 8.0pt; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>Recession<o:p></o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></i></b><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">By this measure, the probability of a
recession has increased.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span><a href="https://politicalcalculations.blogspot.com/2024/01/probability-of-us-recession-resurges-to.html"><span style="font-size: 10.0pt; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">https://politicalcalculations.blogspot.com/2024/01/probability-of-us-recession-resurges-to.html</span></a><span style="font-size: 10.0pt; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 10.0pt; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 10.0pt; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span></span><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>IMF lifts
global growth outlook for 2024.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span><span style="font-size: 6.0pt; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span><a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-01-30/imf-lifts-world-gdp-outlook-on-us-strength-china-fiscal-support?srnd=premium&sref=loFkkPMQ"><span style="font-size: 6.0pt; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-01-30/imf-lifts-world-gdp-outlook-on-us-strength-china-fiscal-support?srnd=premium&sref=loFkkPMQ</span></a><span style="font-size: 6.0pt; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-indent: .5in;"><span style="font-size: 10.0pt; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-indent: .5in;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Eurozone economy flatlines.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-indent: .5in;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span><a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2024/01/30/business/eurozone-economy-gdp.html"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">https://www.nytimes.com/2024/01/30/business/eurozone-economy-gdp.html</span></a><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-indent: .5in;"><span style="font-size: 10.0pt; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span></span><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">War
in the Middle East<o:p></o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></i></b><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">Will Israel attack Lebanon?<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span><a href="https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2024/01/israel-plans-to-attack-lebanon-because-it-is-not-winning-against-hamas.html"><span style="font-size: 8.0pt; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2024/01/israel-plans-to-attack-lebanon-because-it-is-not-winning-against-hamas.html</span></a><span style="font-size: 8.0pt; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>Geopolitics<o:p></o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 42.0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">The argument for
aiding Ukraine: I disagree (1) the well documented wide spread corruption, i.e.
stealing US funds, belies the assertion that the Ukrainians are helping
themselves [yes, to our money] and (2) part of the deal Gorbachev made with
Bush was that in exchange for dismantling the Soviet empire, the US/NATO would
not push its borders further east, which it clearly reneged on.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Russia is attempting to put a stop to it. However,
I include this for perspective.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span><a href="https://econbrowser.com/archives/2024/01/guest-contribution-helping-ukraine-is-a-national-security-no-brainer"><span style="font-size: 8.0pt; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">https://econbrowser.com/archives/2024/01/guest-contribution-helping-ukraine-is-a-national-security-no-brainer</span></a><span style="font-size: 8.0pt; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-indent: .5in;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-indent: .5in;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">China<o:p></o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-indent: .5in;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-indent: .5in;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></i></b><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">Chinas’ real-estate problems have not touched
bottom.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-indent: .5in;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span><a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2024/01/30/business/china-evergrande-real-estate.html"><span style="font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">https://www.nytimes.com/2024/01/30/business/china-evergrande-real-estate.html</span></a><span style="font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-indent: .5in;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>News on Stocks in Our Portfolios</i></b><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span><o:p></o:p></p>
<div style="background: white; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; margin-left: .5in; margin-right: 0in; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .25pt; mso-element: para-border-div; padding: 0in 0in 0in 25.0pt;">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; border: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .25pt; mso-padding-alt: 0in 0in 0in 25.0pt; padding: 0in;"><span style="color: black;">T.
Rowe Price (<span class="ticker-hover-wrapper"><span style="border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .25pt; padding: 0in;">NASDAQ:</span></span><a href="https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/TROW?hasComeFromMpArticle=false&source=content_type%253Areact%257Csection%253Amain_content%257Cbutton%253Abody_link%257Cfirst_level_url%253Anews" title="T. Rowe Price Group, Inc."><span style="border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .25pt; padding: 0in;">TROW</span></a>)
declares <a href="https://seekingalpha.com/pr/19607054-t-rowe-price-group-declares-quarterly-dividend?hasComeFromMpArticle=false&source=content_type%253Areact%257Csection%253Amain_content%257Cbutton%253Abody_link%257Cfirst_level_url%253Anews" target="_blank"><span style="border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .25pt; padding: 0in;">$1.24/share quarterly dividend</span></a>, </span><span style="border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; color: green; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .25pt; padding: 0in;">1.6% increase</span><span style="color: black;"> from prior
dividend of $1.22.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</div>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><o:p> </o:p></p>
<div style="background: white; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; margin-left: .5in; margin-right: 0in; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .25pt; mso-element: para-border-div; padding: 0in 0in 0in 25.0pt;">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; border: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .25pt; mso-padding-alt: 0in 0in 0in 25.0pt; padding: 0in;"><span style="color: black;">Microsoft <a href="https://www.microsoft.com/en-us/investor/earnings/fy-2024-q2/press-release-webcast" target="_blank"><span style="border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .25pt; padding: 0in;">press release</span></a> (<span class="ticker-hover-wrapper"><span style="border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .25pt; padding: 0in;">NASDAQ:</span></span><a href="https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/MSFT?hasComeFromMpArticle=false&source=content_type%253Areact%257Csection%253Amain_content%257Cbutton%253Abody_link%257Cfirst_level_url%253Anews" title="Microsoft Corporation"><span style="border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .25pt; padding: 0in;">MSFT</span></a>): Q2 GAAP
EPS of $2.93 <span class="green"><span style="border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .25pt; padding: 0in;">beats by $0.16</span></span>.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; border: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .25pt; mso-padding-alt: 0in 0in 0in 25.0pt; padding: 0in;"><span style="color: black;">Revenue
of $62.02B (+17.7% Y/Y) <span class="green"><span style="border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .25pt; padding: 0in;">beats by $890M</span></span>.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; border: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .25pt; mso-padding-alt: 0in 0in 0in 25.0pt; padding: 0in;"><span style="color: black;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; border: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .25pt; mso-padding-alt: 0in 0in 0in 25.0pt; padding: 0in;"><span style="color: black;">Mastercard <a href="https://investor.mastercard.com/files/doc_financials/2023/q4/4Q23-Mastercard-Earnings-Release.pdf" style="--tw-border-spacing-x: 0; --tw-border-spacing-y: 0; --tw-ring-color: #3b82f680; --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; --tw-scale-x: 1; --tw-scale-y: 1; --tw-scroll-snap-strictness: proximity; --tw-shadow-colored: 0 0 #0000; --tw-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-skew-x: 0; --tw-skew-y: 0; --tw-translate-x: 0; --tw-translate-y: 0; background-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0); box-sizing: border-box; color: var(--sa-link-color);" target="_blank"><span style="border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .25pt; padding: 0in;">press release</span></a> (<span class="ticker-hover-wrapper"><span style="border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .25pt; padding: 0in;"><span style="--tw-border-spacing-x: 0; --tw-border-spacing-y: 0; --tw-ring-color: #3b82f680; --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; --tw-scale-x: 1; --tw-scale-y: 1; --tw-scroll-snap-strictness: proximity; --tw-shadow-colored: 0 0 #0000; --tw-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-skew-x: 0; --tw-skew-y: 0; --tw-translate-x: 0; --tw-translate-y: 0; box-sizing: border-box;">NYSE:<a href="https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/MA?hasComeFromMpArticle=false&source=content_type%253Areact%257Csection%253Amain_content%257Cbutton%253Abody_link%257Cfirst_level_url%253Anews" style="--tw-border-spacing-x: 0; --tw-border-spacing-y: 0; --tw-ring-color: #3b82f680; --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; --tw-scale-x: 1; --tw-scale-y: 1; --tw-scroll-snap-strictness: proximity; --tw-shadow-colored: 0 0 #0000; --tw-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-skew-x: 0; --tw-skew-y: 0; --tw-translate-x: 0; --tw-translate-y: 0; background-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0); box-sizing: border-box; color: var(--sa-link-color);" title="Mastercard Incorporated">MA</a></span></span></span>): Q4 Non-GAAP EPS of
$3.18 <span class="green"><span style="border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .25pt; padding: 0in;"><span style="--tw-border-spacing-x: 0; --tw-border-spacing-y: 0; --tw-ring-color: #3b82f680; --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; --tw-scale-x: 1; --tw-scale-y: 1; --tw-scroll-snap-strictness: proximity; --tw-shadow-colored: 0 0 #0000; --tw-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-skew-x: 0; --tw-skew-y: 0; --tw-translate-x: 0; --tw-translate-y: 0; box-sizing: border-box; color: var(--teal-100);">beats by
$0.10</span></span></span>.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; border: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .25pt; mso-padding-alt: 0in 0in 0in 25.0pt; padding: 0in;"><span style="color: black;">Revenue
of $6.5B (+13% Y/Y) <span class="green"><span style="border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .25pt; padding: 0in;"><span style="--tw-border-spacing-x: 0; --tw-border-spacing-y: 0; --tw-ring-color: #3b82f680; --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; --tw-scale-x: 1; --tw-scale-y: 1; --tw-scroll-snap-strictness: proximity; --tw-shadow-colored: 0 0 #0000; --tw-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-skew-x: 0; --tw-skew-y: 0; --tw-translate-x: 0; --tw-translate-y: 0; box-sizing: border-box; color: var(--teal-100);">beats by
$20M</span></span></span>.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</div>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><u><span style="font-size: 16.0pt;">What
I am reading today</span></u></i></b><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>Public
school bloat.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span><a href="https://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2024/01/the-daily-chart-public-school-bloat-3.php"><span style="font-size: 10.0pt;">https://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2024/01/the-daily-chart-public-school-bloat-3.php</span></a><span style="font-size: 10.0pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 6.0pt;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 6.0pt;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span></span>Wednesday morning
humor.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span><a href="https://babylonbee.com/news/10-signs-youre-poor-in-a-capitalist-country">https://babylonbee.com/news/10-signs-youre-poor-in-a-capitalist-country</a><o:p></o:p></p>
<div style="border-bottom: dotted windowtext 3.0pt; border: none; mso-element: para-border-div; padding: 0in 0in 1.0pt 0in;">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="border: none; mso-border-bottom-alt: dotted windowtext 3.0pt; mso-padding-alt: 0in 0in 1.0pt 0in; padding: 0in; text-align: justify;"><o:p> </o:p></p>
</div>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-top: 12.0pt; text-align: justify;">Visit Investing
for Survival’s website (<a href="http://investingforsurvival.com/home">http://investingforsurvival.com/home</a>)
to learn more about our Investment Strategy, Prices Disciplines and Subscriber
Service.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-top: 12.0pt; text-align: justify;"><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-top: 12.0pt; text-align: justify;"><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-top: 12.0pt; text-align: justify;"><o:p> </o:p></p>Steven J Cookhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15993653615335271862noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4670837083672737109.post-32934290116639514402024-01-30T06:18:00.000-08:002024-01-30T06:18:15.894-08:00The Morning Call--Falling inflation raises new risks for Fed<p> </p><div style="border-bottom: dotted windowtext 3.0pt; border: none; mso-element: para-border-div; padding: 0in 0in 1.0pt 0in;">
<p align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="border: none; mso-border-bottom-alt: dotted windowtext 3.0pt; mso-padding-alt: 0in 0in 1.0pt 0in; padding: 0in; text-align: center;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="font-size: 24.0pt;">The Morning Call<o:p></o:p></span></i></b></p>
</div>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;">1/30/24<o:p></o:p></p>
<p align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;"><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><u><span style="font-size: 16.0pt;">The
Market</span></u></i></b><span style="font-size: 16.0pt; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><u>Technical</u></i></b></span><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span></i></b><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">Monday in the
charts.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span></span><span style="font-size: 9.0pt; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><a href="https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/stocks-bomds-bullion-bitcoin-all-rally-ahead-catalyst-heavy-week">https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/stocks-bomds-bullion-bitcoin-all-rally-ahead-catalyst-heavy-week</a><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span></i></b><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">Yields tumble
after Treasury lowers borrowing estimates.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span></span><span style="font-size: 8.0pt; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><a href="https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/yields-tumble-futures-soar-after-treasury-unexpectedly-slashes-borrowing-estimates">https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/yields-tumble-futures-soar-after-treasury-unexpectedly-slashes-borrowing-estimates</a><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span></i></b><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">Tracking the
bounce in interest rates.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span><a href="https://allstarcharts.com/tracking-the-bounce-in-interest-rates/">https://allstarcharts.com/tracking-the-bounce-in-interest-rates/</a><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></i></b><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><u><span style="font-size: 14.0pt;">Fundamental</span></u></i></b><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Headlines</i></b><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="tab-stops: 41.95pt; text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>The
Economy</i></b><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="tab-stops: 41.95pt; text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="tab-stops: 41.95pt; text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>US</i></b><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="tab-stops: 85.45pt; text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span><o:p></o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 85.45pt; tab-stops: 85.45pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">The
January Dallas Fed manufacturing index was -27.4 versus estimates of -23.0.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="tab-stops: 85.45pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span></span><span style="font-size: 6.0pt; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><a href="https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2024/01/29/dallas-fed-manufacturing-business-conditions-continue-to-worsen-in-january">https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2024/01/29/dallas-fed-manufacturing-business-conditions-continue-to-worsen-in-january</a><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="tab-stops: 85.45pt; text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="font-size: 6.0pt;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>International</i></b><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 2;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>December Japanese unemployment was 2.5%, in
line.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 78.0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">Q4 German flash
GDP growth was -0.3%, in line; Q4 EU flash GDP growth was 0.0% versus -0.1%.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 78.0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 78.0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">The January EU economic
sentiment index was 96.2 versus forecasts of 96.1; the January industrial sentiment
index was -9.4 versus -8.7; the January services sentiment index was +8.8
versus +5.5; the consumer confidence index was -16.1, in line.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="tab-stops: 101.55pt; text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>Other</i></b><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="tab-stops: 89.2pt; text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span><o:p></o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="tab-stops: 89.2pt; text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span></i></b><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">A six pack of charts
providing additional insight to the US economy.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="tab-stops: 89.2pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span><a href="https://scottgrannis.blogspot.com/2024/01/a-quick-chart-six-pack.html">https://scottgrannis.blogspot.com/2024/01/a-quick-chart-six-pack.html</a><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="tab-stops: 89.2pt; text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="tab-stops: 89.2pt; text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span></i></b><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">Mortgage rates are
expected to continue to fall.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 89.2pt; tab-stops: 89.2pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 6.0pt; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-01-29/mortgage-rates-in-us-to-decline-to-5-5-in-2024-survey-shows?srnd=premium&sref=loFkkPMQ">https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-01-29/mortgage-rates-in-us-to-decline-to-5-5-in-2024-survey-shows?srnd=premium&sref=loFkkPMQ</a><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="tab-stops: 89.2pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 6.0pt; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="tab-stops: 89.2pt; text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The Fed<o:p></o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="tab-stops: 89.2pt; text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="tab-stops: 89.2pt; text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></i></b><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">A</span><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"> </i></b><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">little easing now could help avoid a lot of
easing later.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="tab-stops: 89.2pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span><span style="font-size: 8.0pt; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><a href="https://www.wsj.com/economy/central-banking/fed-interest-rate-easing-timing-4ec5768d?mod=economy_lead_story">https://www.wsj.com/economy/central-banking/fed-interest-rate-easing-timing-4ec5768d?mod=economy_lead_story</a><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="tab-stops: 89.2pt; text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="tab-stops: 89.2pt; text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></i></b><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>From
the Fed whisperer: Falling inflation raises new risks for Fed.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="tab-stops: 89.2pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span><span style="font-size: 7.0pt; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><a href="https://www.wsj.com/economy/central-banking/plummeting-inflation-raises-new-risk-for-fed-rising-real-interest-rates-fd2a4f37">https://www.wsj.com/economy/central-banking/plummeting-inflation-raises-new-risk-for-fed-rising-real-interest-rates-fd2a4f37</a><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="tab-stops: 89.2pt; text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="tab-stops: 89.2pt; text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></i></b><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The era
of an independent Fed is drawing to a close.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="tab-stops: 89.2pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><a href="https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/feds-independence-was-nice-while-it-lasted">https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/feds-independence-was-nice-while-it-lasted</a><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="tab-stops: 89.2pt; text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>Inflation<o:p></o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></i></b><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">Is inflation dead?<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><a href="https://disciplinefunds.com/2024/01/26/weekend-reading-is-inflation-dead-2/">https://disciplinefunds.com/2024/01/26/weekend-reading-is-inflation-dead-2/</a><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-indent: .5in;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-indent: .5in;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Recession<o:p></o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-indent: .5in;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></i></b><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">Businesses and consumers are borrowing again.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-indent: .5in;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span><span style="font-size: 9.0pt; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><a href="https://www.wsj.com/finance/credit-borrowing-business-loans-charts-0c99e080?mod=hp_lead_pos5">https://www.wsj.com/finance/credit-borrowing-business-loans-charts-0c99e080?mod=hp_lead_pos5</a><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-indent: .5in;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>War
in the Middle East<o:p></o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></i></b><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">The gathering storm clouds.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span><span style="font-size: 6.0pt; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><a href="https://www.spiegel.de/international/world/spiral-of-vengeance-the-gathering-storm-clouds-in-the-middle-east-a-a18a9bc3-ff55-4e8c-96a0-a7d2f4f79a65">https://www.spiegel.de/international/world/spiral-of-vengeance-the-gathering-storm-clouds-in-the-middle-east-a-a18a9bc3-ff55-4e8c-96a0-a7d2f4f79a65</a><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span></i></b><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The implications of the Tower 22 strike in
Jordan.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span><span style="font-size: 6.0pt; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><a href="https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2024/01/the-tower-22-strike-in-jordan-triggers-us-israel-into-all-front-war-the-arabs-and-iran-are-ready-the-russians-too.html">https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2024/01/the-tower-22-strike-in-jordan-triggers-us-israel-into-all-front-war-the-arabs-and-iran-are-ready-the-russians-too.html</a><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Bottom line.<o:p></o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span></i></b><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">How to
consistently lose money.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span></span><a href="https://www.downtownjoshbrown.com/p/epiphany?utm_source=www.downtownjoshbrown.com&utm_medium=newsletter&utm_campaign=the-epiphany">Carl
Richards and Josh Brown on the Behavior Gap (downtownjoshbrown.com)</a><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span></i></b><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">Crypto is going mainstream
which means that it is over.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span></span><span style="font-size: 7.0pt; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2024-01-26/bitcoin-etf-crypto-is-going-mainstream-which-means-it-s-over?sref=loFkkPMQ">https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2024-01-26/bitcoin-etf-crypto-is-going-mainstream-which-means-it-s-over?sref=loFkkPMQ</a><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 7.0pt; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span></i></b><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">Blue chip highflyers
and dogs.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span></span><span style="font-size: 10.0pt; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><a href="https://www.bespokepremium.com/interactive/posts/think-big-blog/blue-chip-high-fliers-and-dogs">https://www.bespokepremium.com/interactive/posts/think-big-blog/blue-chip-high-fliers-and-dogs</a><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>News on Stocks in Our Portfolios</i></b><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="tab-stops: 26.85pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span><o:p></o:p></p>
<div style="background: white; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; margin-left: .5in; margin-right: 0in; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .25pt; mso-element: para-border-div; padding: 0in 0in 0in 25.0pt;">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; border: none; margin-bottom: 15.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .25pt; mso-padding-alt: 0in 0in 0in 25.0pt; padding: 0in;"><span style="color: black;">UPS <a href="https://seekingalpha.com/pr/19605815-ups-releases-4q-2023-earnings?hasComeFromMpArticle=false&source=content_type%253Areact%257Csection%253Amain_content%257Cbutton%253Abody_link%257Cfirst_level_url%253Anews" style="--tw-border-spacing-x: 0; --tw-border-spacing-y: 0; --tw-ring-color: #3b82f680; --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; --tw-scale-x: 1; --tw-scale-y: 1; --tw-scroll-snap-strictness: proximity; --tw-shadow-colored: 0 0 #0000; --tw-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-skew-x: 0; --tw-skew-y: 0; --tw-translate-x: 0; --tw-translate-y: 0; background-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0); box-sizing: border-box; color: var(--sa-link-color);"><span style="border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .25pt; padding: 0in;">press release</span></a> (<span class="ticker-hover-wrapper"><span style="border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .25pt; padding: 0in;"><span style="--tw-border-spacing-x: 0; --tw-border-spacing-y: 0; --tw-ring-color: #3b82f680; --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; --tw-scale-x: 1; --tw-scale-y: 1; --tw-scroll-snap-strictness: proximity; --tw-shadow-colored: 0 0 #0000; --tw-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-skew-x: 0; --tw-skew-y: 0; --tw-translate-x: 0; --tw-translate-y: 0; box-sizing: border-box;">NYSE:<a href="https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/UPS?hasComeFromMpArticle=false&source=content_type%253Areact%257Csection%253Amain_content%257Cbutton%253Abody_link%257Cfirst_level_url%253Anews" style="--tw-border-spacing-x: 0; --tw-border-spacing-y: 0; --tw-ring-color: #3b82f680; --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; --tw-scale-x: 1; --tw-scale-y: 1; --tw-scroll-snap-strictness: proximity; --tw-shadow-colored: 0 0 #0000; --tw-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-skew-x: 0; --tw-skew-y: 0; --tw-translate-x: 0; --tw-translate-y: 0; background-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0); box-sizing: border-box; color: var(--sa-link-color);" title="United Parcel Service, Inc.">UPS</a></span></span></span>): Q4 Non-GAAP EPS of
$2.47 <span class="green"><span style="border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .25pt; padding: 0in;"><span style="--tw-border-spacing-x: 0; --tw-border-spacing-y: 0; --tw-ring-color: #3b82f680; --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; --tw-scale-x: 1; --tw-scale-y: 1; --tw-scroll-snap-strictness: proximity; --tw-shadow-colored: 0 0 #0000; --tw-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-skew-x: 0; --tw-skew-y: 0; --tw-translate-x: 0; --tw-translate-y: 0; box-sizing: border-box; color: var(--teal-100);">beats by
$0.01</span></span></span>.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; border: none; margin-bottom: 15.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .25pt; mso-padding-alt: 0in 0in 0in 25.0pt; padding: 0in;"><span style="color: black;">Revenue of $24.9B (-7.8% Y/Y) <span class="red"><span style="border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .25pt; padding: 0in;"><span style="--tw-border-spacing-x: 0; --tw-border-spacing-y: 0; --tw-ring-color: #3b82f680; --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; --tw-scale-x: 1; --tw-scale-y: 1; --tw-scroll-snap-strictness: proximity; --tw-shadow-colored: 0 0 #0000; --tw-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-skew-x: 0; --tw-skew-y: 0; --tw-translate-x: 0; --tw-translate-y: 0; box-sizing: border-box; color: var(--red-100);">misses by
$510M</span></span></span>.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</div>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="tab-stops: 26.85pt; text-align: justify;"><o:p> </o:p></p>
<div style="background: white; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; margin-left: .5in; margin-right: 0in; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .25pt; mso-element: para-border-div; padding: 0in 0in 0in 25.0pt;">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; border: none; margin-bottom: 15.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .25pt; mso-padding-alt: 0in 0in 0in 25.0pt; padding: 0in;"><span style="color: black;">UPS (<span class="ticker-hover-wrapper"><span style="border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .25pt; padding: 0in;"><span style="--tw-border-spacing-x: 0; --tw-border-spacing-y: 0; --tw-ring-color: #3b82f680; --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; --tw-scale-x: 1; --tw-scale-y: 1; --tw-scroll-snap-strictness: proximity; --tw-shadow-colored: 0 0 #0000; --tw-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-skew-x: 0; --tw-skew-y: 0; --tw-translate-x: 0; --tw-translate-y: 0; box-sizing: border-box;">NYSE:<a href="https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/UPS?hasComeFromMpArticle=false&source=content_type%253Areact%257Csection%253Amain_content%257Cbutton%253Abody_link%257Cfirst_level_url%253Anews" style="--tw-border-spacing-x: 0; --tw-border-spacing-y: 0; --tw-ring-color: #3b82f680; --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; --tw-scale-x: 1; --tw-scale-y: 1; --tw-scroll-snap-strictness: proximity; --tw-shadow-colored: 0 0 #0000; --tw-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-skew-x: 0; --tw-skew-y: 0; --tw-translate-x: 0; --tw-translate-y: 0; background-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0); box-sizing: border-box; color: var(--sa-link-color);" title="United Parcel Service, Inc.">UPS</a></span></span></span>) declares <a href="https://seekingalpha.com/pr/19605815-ups-releases-4q-2023-earnings?hasComeFromMpArticle=false&source=content_type%253Areact%257Csection%253Amain_content%257Cbutton%253Abody_link%257Cfirst_level_url%253Anews" style="--tw-border-spacing-x: 0; --tw-border-spacing-y: 0; --tw-ring-color: #3b82f680; --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; --tw-scale-x: 1; --tw-scale-y: 1; --tw-scroll-snap-strictness: proximity; --tw-shadow-colored: 0 0 #0000; --tw-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-skew-x: 0; --tw-skew-y: 0; --tw-translate-x: 0; --tw-translate-y: 0; background-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0); box-sizing: border-box; color: var(--sa-link-color);" target="_blank"><span style="border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .25pt; padding: 0in;">$1.63/share quarterly
dividend</span></a>, <span class="green"><span style="border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .25pt; padding: 0in;"><span style="--tw-border-spacing-x: 0; --tw-border-spacing-y: 0; --tw-ring-color: #3b82f680; --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; --tw-scale-x: 1; --tw-scale-y: 1; --tw-scroll-snap-strictness: proximity; --tw-shadow-colored: 0 0 #0000; --tw-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-skew-x: 0; --tw-skew-y: 0; --tw-translate-x: 0; --tw-translate-y: 0; box-sizing: border-box; color: var(--teal-100);">0.6%
increase</span></span></span> from prior dividend of $1.62.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</div>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><u><span style="font-size: 16.0pt;">What
I am reading today</span></u></i></b><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>How
to spot a liar.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span><span style="font-size: 7.0pt;"><a href="https://www.theguardian.com/science/2024/jan/24/how-to-spot-a-liar-10-essential-tells-from-random-laughter-to-copycat-gestures">https://www.theguardian.com/science/2024/jan/24/how-to-spot-a-liar-10-essential-tells-from-random-laughter-to-copycat-gestures</a><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 6.0pt;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<div style="border-bottom: dotted windowtext 3.0pt; border: none; mso-element: para-border-div; padding: 0in 0in 1.0pt 0in;">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="border: none; mso-border-bottom-alt: dotted windowtext 3.0pt; mso-padding-alt: 0in 0in 1.0pt 0in; padding: 0in; text-align: justify; text-indent: .5in;">Violent
crime in the US was down in 2023.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="border: none; mso-border-bottom-alt: dotted windowtext 3.0pt; mso-padding-alt: 0in 0in 1.0pt 0in; padding: 0in; text-align: justify; text-indent: .5in;"><a href="https://jasher.substack.com/p/crime-in-2023-murder-plummeted-violent">https://jasher.substack.com/p/crime-in-2023-murder-plummeted-violent</a><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="border: none; mso-border-bottom-alt: dotted windowtext 3.0pt; mso-padding-alt: 0in 0in 1.0pt 0in; padding: 0in; text-align: justify; text-indent: .5in;"><o:p> </o:p></p>
</div>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-top: 12.0pt; text-align: justify;">Visit Investing
for Survival’s website (<a href="http://investingforsurvival.com/home">http://investingforsurvival.com/home</a>)
to learn more about our Investment Strategy, Prices Disciplines and Subscriber
Service.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-top: 12.0pt; text-align: justify;"><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-top: 12.0pt; text-align: justify;"><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-top: 12.0pt; text-align: justify;"><o:p> </o:p></p>Steven J Cookhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15993653615335271862noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4670837083672737109.post-7638355493484753592024-01-29T05:57:00.000-08:002024-01-29T05:57:08.882-08:00Monday Morning Chartology<p> </p><div style="border-bottom: dotted windowtext 3.0pt; border: none; mso-element: para-border-div; padding: 0in 0in 1.0pt 0in;">
<p align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="border: none; mso-border-bottom-alt: dotted windowtext 3.0pt; mso-padding-alt: 0in 0in 1.0pt 0in; padding: 0in; text-align: center;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="font-size: 24.0pt;">The Morning Call<o:p></o:p></span></i></b></p>
</div>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;">1/29/24<o:p></o:p></p>
<p align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;"><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><u><span style="font-size: 16.0pt;">The
Market</span></u></i></b><span style="font-size: 16.0pt; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><u>Technical<o:p></o:p></u></i></b></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><u><span style="font-size: 14.0pt;"><o:p><span style="text-decoration: none;"> </span></o:p></span></u></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: .5in; text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">The S&P successfully
challenged the upper boundary of its intermediate term trading range, resetting
it to an uptrend. Accordingly, the only visible resistance is the upper
boundaries of its short term uptrend (~4993), its intermediate term uptrend
(~6600) and its long term uptrend (too high to even mention). <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: .5in; text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: .5in; text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">Given the economic/political/social
issues that I believe are facing us, it is hard for me to make a call for a dramatically
higher Market. But historically, stocks don’t make a new all-time high after a
two year hiatus then suddenly roll over. So it seems likely that they will climb
the proverbial ‘wall of worry’ for some length of time. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: .5in; text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: .5in; text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">Depending on your
time horizon, there are several courses of action available. One you can bottom
fish for those few stocks that are in a Buy Range (for me Hershey and Best Buy
fit that category) or (2) you can as I suggested last week buy a Market oriented
ETF as a trade (IWM, IWN, VYM, SPRX, QQQ depending on how aggressive you want
to be;<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>I bought a position in IWN on
Friday)<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: .5in; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 8.0pt; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><a href="https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/morgan-stanley-getting-reverse-repo-near-zero-will-be-starting-point-taper">https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/morgan-stanley-getting-reverse-repo-near-zero-will-be-starting-point-taper</a></span><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: .5in; text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: .5in; text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">On the other hand,
this is a Market phase in which many of our holdings start trading into their
Sell Half Range. When that occurs, I will act.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: .5in; text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span></i></b><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">Goldman guru so bullish,
he’s bearish.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span></span><span style="font-size: 7.0pt; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><a href="https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/fomu-back-goldman-flows-guru-so-bullish-hes-turning-bearish-ahead-superbowl-earnings">https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/fomu-back-goldman-flows-guru-so-bullish-hes-turning-bearish-ahead-superbowl-earnings</a><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 7.0pt; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 10.0pt; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiR6JZLcKhgzQaQqTepSumjF5tH4bpiiP8W8Rl_hkO7Jjg75SnUNgfFuRBU2XRYBY0TkB5DKXDSn-K53J4oF1_V_TPaGw6uiflnWdPqU2a3zT7RwGE-oarQEk3M58tOefzglKhKN8Zpymp3zkCvrek1rLOlNcQmjnnId2ertqe8SXlWVsIp2BkkVUjjb3w/s1920/sp12924.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1080" data-original-width="1920" height="360" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiR6JZLcKhgzQaQqTepSumjF5tH4bpiiP8W8Rl_hkO7Jjg75SnUNgfFuRBU2XRYBY0TkB5DKXDSn-K53J4oF1_V_TPaGw6uiflnWdPqU2a3zT7RwGE-oarQEk3M58tOefzglKhKN8Zpymp3zkCvrek1rLOlNcQmjnnId2ertqe8SXlWVsIp2BkkVUjjb3w/w640-h360/sp12924.jpg" width="640" /></a></div><br /><p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-indent: .5in;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: .5in; text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">The long bond meandered
about last week. I am sure bond investors are torn between the good economic growth
news (suggesting a stronger economy/profits but higher for longer) and better
inflation news (rate cuts starting in March). As you know, I believe that the
bond market is smarter than the stock market. So with the yield curve now basically
flat, if it re-inverts or steepens because short rates decline (sign of
recession), I will remain cautious. If it steepens because long rates rise
(sign of economic recovery), then I will become more optimistic.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: .5in; text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: .5in; text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">The recent decline
in bond volatility is a plus for stocks.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: .5in; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 9.0pt; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><a href="https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/3-charts-bond-volatility-moving-lower-and-its-helpful-bull">https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/3-charts-bond-volatility-moving-lower-and-its-helpful-bull</a><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: .5in; text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: .5in; text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgyPQAYEYtRXOGYCzPWu1mN9tISb7ArYzdEAYJ7SuPgWMzBFtRzsofUrsnj2i2YZbX7jE3S_yNm9tddNrUAC4A6uokONfYLUCI8zLNKAMG2BZ1rh-xF7xWqRdlcLdUk9Zqj2S4BoLkFYby8TYeJ9tksBtrCe5dciv0nZk52arPOKjf_fu2rLic0GPIlQUE/s1920/tlt12924.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1080" data-original-width="1920" height="360" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgyPQAYEYtRXOGYCzPWu1mN9tISb7ArYzdEAYJ7SuPgWMzBFtRzsofUrsnj2i2YZbX7jE3S_yNm9tddNrUAC4A6uokONfYLUCI8zLNKAMG2BZ1rh-xF7xWqRdlcLdUk9Zqj2S4BoLkFYby8TYeJ9tksBtrCe5dciv0nZk52arPOKjf_fu2rLic0GPIlQUE/w640-h360/tlt12924.jpg" width="640" /></a></div><br /> <p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: .5in; text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p><br /></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: .5in; text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">GLD was also
trendless last week. The fact that it can’t successfully bust through its
all-time high suggests that investors are sanguine about the economic outlook
and provides no incentive to dapple in gold.</span><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p></o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: .5in; text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: .5in; text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: .5in; text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj6hQXIdx6Xl3eNnO5vkrTmXEwlCSf5R68kVyHTbs2KaJUIebzwuCsl1lQC28QeqP4wPt-CW9g5qlv-IaSnmWl8ZXvcRoDSOf-AnF9r0ODiWeUan1tdpDpAn4Q5oDZoClXTmTh9rtauvWKYOmHUkbW2DHiMh6qauOKo7swt5zj3tuwG634a0V_XafnyVcM/s1920/glsd12924.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1080" data-original-width="1920" height="360" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj6hQXIdx6Xl3eNnO5vkrTmXEwlCSf5R68kVyHTbs2KaJUIebzwuCsl1lQC28QeqP4wPt-CW9g5qlv-IaSnmWl8ZXvcRoDSOf-AnF9r0ODiWeUan1tdpDpAn4Q5oDZoClXTmTh9rtauvWKYOmHUkbW2DHiMh6qauOKo7swt5zj3tuwG634a0V_XafnyVcM/w640-h360/glsd12924.jpg" width="640" /></a></div><br /><o:p><br /></o:p><p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: .5in; text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p><br /></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: .5in; text-align: justify;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">While
the long term uptrend remains in place, the dollar’s short term technical
picture has been wrecked. To be sure, a gap down open of the order of magnitude
shown on the chart begs to be closed. But that will likely take a long time. Expect
a lot of directionless trading over the short to intermediate term. </span></i><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">That said, the
recent rally in the dollar accompanying the breakout in equities makes sense.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: .5in; text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjUuoxRbwzVHc8McgocmZwNtRIGpweAC9QygClmWLNKrqbWvO3j9sS3uQtfuGXLoj3ZU2VDS20l1WH3l8BICKbg-9ItOo8nXQtS5e8OuXDklh_cO3BvD_j4ph7YDcw0ppLktXHxKbTbTwKiI30ztaz_iYo0nHZp6_RbDXR1hA7K21gZgZLBsgFAu3H4sOg/s1920/uup12924.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1080" data-original-width="1920" height="360" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjUuoxRbwzVHc8McgocmZwNtRIGpweAC9QygClmWLNKrqbWvO3j9sS3uQtfuGXLoj3ZU2VDS20l1WH3l8BICKbg-9ItOo8nXQtS5e8OuXDklh_cO3BvD_j4ph7YDcw0ppLktXHxKbTbTwKiI30ztaz_iYo0nHZp6_RbDXR1hA7K21gZgZLBsgFAu3H4sOg/w640-h360/uup12924.jpg" width="640" /></a></i></b></div><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><br /></i></b><p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span></i></b><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">Friday in the
charts.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span></span><span style="font-size: 8.0pt; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><a href="https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/bond-yields-black-gold-bounce-economic-animal-spirits-wreck-rate-cut-hype">https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/bond-yields-black-gold-bounce-economic-animal-spirits-wreck-rate-cut-hype</a><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></i></b><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><u><span style="font-size: 14.0pt;">Fundamental</span></u></i></b><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Headlines</i></b><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="tab-stops: 41.95pt; text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>The
Economy</i></b><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="tab-stops: 41.95pt; text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="tab-stops: 41.95pt 1.0in 1.5in 2.0in 2.5in center 3.0in; text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 2;"> </span>Week in review<o:p></o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="tab-stops: 41.95pt 1.0in 1.5in 2.0in 2.5in center 3.0in; text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 1.0in; tab-stops: 41.95pt 1.0in 1.5in 2.0in 2.5in center 3.0in; text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">The stats in the
US were overwhelmingly upbeat last week, with the primary indicators more so (four
up, two neutral). This is only the second consecutive positive week in some
time. So while it is too soon to be altering forecasts, it does suggest that the
hard landing scenario is the least likely alternative. And since a soft or no
landing are both positive for the economy, one has to be a bit more optimistic.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 1.0in; tab-stops: 41.95pt 1.0in 1.5in 2.0in 2.5in center 3.0in; text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 1.0in; tab-stops: 41.95pt 1.0in 1.5in 2.0in 2.5in center 3.0in; text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">Meanwhile,
overseas the data continues to vacillate between positive and negative
readings.</span><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p></o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 1.0in; tab-stops: 41.95pt 1.0in 1.5in 2.0in 2.5in center 3.0in; text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 1.0in; tab-stops: 41.95pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">Bottom line:<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 1.0in; tab-stops: 41.95pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoListParagraph" style="margin-left: 1.25in; mso-add-space: auto; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; tab-stops: 41.95pt; text-align: justify; text-indent: -.25in;"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">(1)<span style="font: 7.0pt "Times New Roman";">
</span></span></span><!--[endif]--><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">I think that the inflation risks are behind
us, at least for the short term. However, longer term, I believe that the most
important economic factor is the potential [inflationary] impact of a grossly
irresponsible fiscal policy which if left unresolved will ultimately push
interest rates and inflation to higher levels, risking a tighter monetary
policy and impeding the economy’s ability to grow.<o:p></o:p></span></i></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="tab-stops: 41.95pt; text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 2;"> </span></i></b><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span><span style="font-size: 9.0pt; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoListParagraph" style="margin-left: 1.25in; mso-add-space: auto; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; tab-stops: 41.95pt; text-align: justify; text-indent: -.25in;"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">(2)<span style="font: 7.0pt "Times New Roman";">
</span></span></span><!--[endif]--><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">The</span><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"> </span></i><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">question of recession [what kind of landing] is
gaining some visibility, in my opinion. That is, the continuing lack of consistently
in the data is more of an indication of a ‘muddle through’ scenario than it is
of a hard landing. So, I a shifting a bit in my outlook---downgrading the likelihood
of a hard landing and focusing on whether or not we get a soft or no landing. Clearly
that is a more upbeat outlook for both the economy and stocks.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="tab-stops: 75.2pt; text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span><o:p></o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="tab-stops: 41.95pt; text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 2;"> </span>US</i></b><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="tab-stops: 71.5pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 6.0pt; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="tab-stops: 71.5pt; text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="font-size: 6.0pt;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>International</i></b><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="tab-stops: 74.15pt; text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span><o:p></o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="tab-stops: 74.15pt; text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Other</i></b><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-indent: .5in;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-indent: .5in;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">The
Fed<o:p></o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-indent: .5in;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-indent: .5in;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></i></b><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">When reverse repos reach zero, QT will start.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-indent: .5in;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span><span style="font-size: 8.0pt; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><a href="https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/morgan-stanley-getting-reverse-repo-near-zero-will-be-starting-point-taper">https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/morgan-stanley-getting-reverse-repo-near-zero-will-be-starting-point-taper</a><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-indent: .5in;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-indent: .5in;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Recession<o:p></o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-indent: .5in;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-indent: .5in;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></i></b><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">Update on big four recession indicators<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-indent: .5in;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span><span style="font-size: 7.0pt; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><a href="https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2024/01/26/personal-income-economic-indicators-rises-december-2023">https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2024/01/26/personal-income-economic-indicators-rises-december-2023</a><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-indent: .5in;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-indent: .5in;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">China<o:p></o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-indent: .5in;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-indent: .5in;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></i></b><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">China signals more stimulus to come.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-indent: .5in;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span><span style="font-size: 6.0pt; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-01-26/china-signals-more-targeted-stimulus-to-follow-abrupt-rrr-cut?srnd=premium&sref=loFkkPMQ">https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-01-26/china-signals-more-targeted-stimulus-to-follow-abrupt-rrr-cut?srnd=premium&sref=loFkkPMQ</a><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-indent: .5in;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>News on Stocks in Our Portfolios</i></b><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><u><span style="font-size: 16.0pt;">What
I am reading today</span></u></i></b><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><o:p> </o:p></p>
<div style="border-bottom: dotted windowtext 3.0pt; border: none; mso-element: para-border-div; padding: 0in 0in 1.0pt 0in;">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="border: none; mso-border-bottom-alt: dotted windowtext 3.0pt; mso-padding-alt: 0in 0in 1.0pt 0in; padding: 0in; text-align: justify;"><o:p> </o:p></p>
</div>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-top: 12.0pt; text-align: justify;">Visit Investing
for Survival’s website (<a href="http://investingforsurvival.com/home">http://investingforsurvival.com/home</a>)
to learn more about our Investment Strategy, Prices Disciplines and Subscriber
Service.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-top: 12.0pt; text-align: justify;"><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-top: 12.0pt; text-align: justify;"><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-top: 12.0pt; text-align: justify;"><o:p> </o:p></p>Steven J Cookhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15993653615335271862noreply@blogger.com0