The Morning Call
10/3/25
The
Market
Technical
Thursday in the
charts.
https://www.zerohedge.com/market-recaps/stocks-shrug-shutdown-day-2-bitcoin-rips-gold-dips
Thursday in the technical stats.
https://www.barchart.com/stocks/momentum
https://www.barchart.com/stocks/sectors/rankings
https://www.barchart.com/stocks/signals/new-recommendations
The latest from
Goldman’s trading desk.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/goldman-trader-says-something-very-strange-going-market
The short term
technicals in gold are getting iffy.
https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/down-candles-hanging-man-shooting-star-gold-trouble
Fundamental
Headlines
The
Economy
US
International
The August
Japanese unemployment rate was 2.6% versus forecasts of 2.4%.
The August EU PPI
was -0.3% versus expectations of 0.0%.
The September
Japanese services PMI was 53.3 versus estimates of 53.0; the composite PMI was
51.3 versus 51.1; the September German services PMI was 51.5 versus 52.5; the
composite PMI was 52.0 versus 52.4; the September EU services PMI was 51.3
versus 51.4; the composite PMI was 51.2, in line; the September UK services PMI
was 50.8 versus 51.9; the composite PMI was 50.1 versus 51.0.
Other
The consensus has been wrong since January.
https://www.apolloacademy.com/we-in-the-economics-profession-need-to-look-ourselves-in-the-mirror/
Inflation adjusted home prices below 2022
peak.
https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2025/10/inflation-adjusted-house-prices-27.html
Another problem with those pesky statistics.
https://www.ft.com/content/4efed04a-0871-491e-b0ee-2665b418e5d3
Fiscal
Policy
The debate over the shutdown:
GOP:
https://issuesinsights.com/2025/10/01/you-call-this-a-shutdown/
Dems:
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/09/30/opinion/government-shutdown-republican-obamacare.html
Evidence of the US’s loss of privilege.
https://klementoninvesting.substack.com/p/privilege-lost
Tariffs
This is a great description
of the benefits of free trade. What it fails to consider is (1) theft of US
intellectual property, (2) other countries exploiting minorities to produce cheap
goods, (3) other countries expecting the US to pay for their defense and (4)
congress’s unwillingness to raise tax revenue sufficient to cover its spending.
Though this author
thinks item (4) above is a ‘rounding error’.
https://reason.com/2025/10/02/the-government-shutdown-is-a-distraction-from-our-37-trillion-debt/
This author doesn’t.
https://wolfstreet.com/2025/10/01/tariff-cash-keeps-rolling-in-record-30-billion-in-september/
Investing
A statistical look
at equities’ performance in September, October and the fourth quarter.
https://www.carsongroup.com/insights/blog/a-quarter-for-the-history-books-now-what-2/
September
dividends by the numbers.
https://politicalcalculations.blogspot.com/2025/10/dividends-by-numbers-in-september-2025.html
Update on valuations.
https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2025/10/01/pe10-market-valuation-september-2025
https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2025/10/01/qratio-market-valuation-september-2025
Current S&P Q3 and Q4 earnings estimates.
Debt, the Fed and the bullish case for gold.
The
number one cognitive bias.
https://almossawi.substack.com/p/cognitive-biases-investing-barry-ritholtz
What is the stock
market discounting?
What
Is The Stock Market Discounting?
Goldman client survey finds AI FOMO off the
charts.
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