Thursday, December 27, 2018

Subscriber Alert


Subscriber Alerts

At the Market open;

The Dividend Growth Portfolio will establish a new partial position in Skyworks Solutions Inc (SWKS) (down 41% to date).  And it will Add to its position in Franklin Resources (BEN) (down 44% to date).

The Aggressive Growth Portfolio will establish new partial positions in Skyworks Solutions (SWKS) and Signet Jewelers Inc (SIG) (down 80% to date)

Saturday, December 22, 2018

The Closing Bell


The Closing Bell

12/22/18

I am taking off for the holidays.  Back 1/2/19.  If I take any actions in this period, I will send out a Subscriber Alert.

Statistical Summary

   Current Economic Forecast
                       
2018 estimates (revised)

Real Growth in Gross Domestic Product                          1.5-2.5%
                        Inflation                                                                          +1.5-2%
                        Corporate Profits                                                                10-15%

            2019

Real Growth in Gross Domestic Product                          1.5-2.5%
                        Inflation                                                                          +1.5-2.5%
                        Corporate Profits                                                                5-6%


   Current Market Forecast
           
            Dow Jones Industrial Average

                                    Current Trend (revised):  
                                    Short Term Trading Range                      21691-26646
Intermediate Term Uptrend                     13952-30159
Long Term Uptrend                                  6585-29947
                                               
2018     Year End Fair Value                                   13800-14000

                        2019     Year End Fair Value                                   14500-14700

            Standard & Poor’s 500

                                    Current Trend (revised):
                                    Short Term Trading Range                          2536-2942
                                    Intermediate Term Uptrend                         1323-3138                                                          Long Term Uptrend                                     905-3065
                                                           
2018 Year End Fair Value                                       1700-1720         
                        2019 Year End Fair Value                                     1790-1810

Percentage Cash in Our Portfolios

Dividend Growth Portfolio                           59%
            High Yield Portfolio                                     55%
            Aggressive Growth Portfolio                        55%

Economics/Politics
           
The Trump economy is a neutral for equity valuations.   The data flow this week was slightly negative: above estimates: November housing starts, November existing home sales, month to date retail chain store sales, weekly jobless claims, December consumer sentiment, November personal spending, final Q3 corporate profits; below estimates: weekly mortgage and purchase applications, the December housing index, November personal income, November durable goods orders, December NY, Kansas City and Philly Fed manufacturing indices, the revised October/November leading economic indicators, final Q3 GDP ; in line with estimates:  the Q3 trade deficit.

However, the primary indicators were mixed: November housing starts (+), November existing home sales (+), November personal spending (+), Q3 corporate profits (+), November personal income (-), November durable goods orders (-), October/November leading economic indicators (-), final Q3 GDP (-).  I am giving this week a neutral rating.  Score: in the last 167 weeks, fifty-four were positive, seventy-four negative and thirty-nine neutral.

The data from overseas was a bit thin but still not good.  Not helping is the ongoing turmoil over Brexit, the civil unrest in France/Macron’s response and the Chinese/US trade relations.

My forecast:

Less government regulation, Trump mandated spending cuts and possible help from a fairer trade regime are pluses for the long-term US secular economic growth rate.

However, the explosion in deficit spending, especially at a time when the government should be running a surplus, is a secular negative.  My thesis on this issue is that at the current high level of national debt, the cost of servicing the debt more than offsets (1) any stimulative benefit of tax cuts and (2) the secular positives of less government regulation and fairer trade [at least on the agreements that have been renegotiated].

On a cyclical basis, the economic growth rate is slowing as the effects of the tax cut wear off, the global economy decelerates and the unwind of the Fed’s balance sheet limits credit expansion.

       The negatives:

(1)   a vulnerable global banking [financial] system.  

Credit rating downgrades in the corporate sector are rising.

                  Plus, a freeze up in the CLO and leveraged loan markets.

(2)   fiscal/regulatory policy. 

Trade remains the most important near-term issue.  Developments this week included [a] in a speech, Xi said that China would not be bullied {yawn}, [b] Mnuchin made more of the ‘we are making great progress’ comments {ZZZZZ}, [c] the US indicted two Chinese hackers and [d] perhaps most important, some of our allies are apparently willing to stand by the US in its fight against Chinese unfair trade practices. If the Chinese see that most of their major trading partners are willing to follow the US lead in imposing sanctions, this could be the factor that brings them to heel.  Now, if those trading partners will act.

The other issue is the government shutdown over funding of the border.  To be clear, it is not a total shutdown because much of the agency funding has already been done in other bills. So, its economic impact will not be as significant as it would be if the entire government were closed.  In addition, not much gets done in DC this time of year anyway.  So, the most immediate affect will be psychological; and the Market will be where it is mostly felt. In short, I don’t consider this a big deal, economically speaking; but it could be for the Market.

I will spare you my usual rant about the weakening effects of an outsized federal debt/deficit on the economy.

(3)   the potential negative impact of central bank money printing:  The key point here is that [a] the Fed has inflated bank reserves far beyond any comparable level in history and [b] while this hasn’t been an economic problem to date, {i} it still has to withdraw all those reserves from the system without creating any disruptions---a task that I regularly point out it has proven inept at in the past and {ii} it has created  asset bubbles in the stock market as well as in the auto, student and mortgage loan markets.  

The big news of the week was the Fed raising the Fed Funds rate and continuing to unwind its balance sheet.  You know my bottom line on this issue: as long as the Fed continues a QT policy, liquidity shrinks creating credit funding problems and putting downward pressure on asset prices.  However, I don’t expect it to have a major impact on the economy.

Trump now considering firing Powell---which will only make matters worse.

Meanwhile both the Bank of England and Bank of Japan left rates unchanged and the Chinese announced plans for more fiscal and monetary stimulus.

I have no idea what the ultimate net economic impact of conflicting monetary policies will have on global liquidity; though to date, US policy seems to be overwhelming the rest.

(4)   geopolitical risks: 

The EU/Italians seemed to have worked a solution to Italy’s budget issue.  That takes one potential negative off the table.  Still Brexit is causing heartburn in the UK.  There were no headlines this week in the Russia/Ukraine dust up, but I don’t think that is going away.  They all could be much to do about nothing; or any one could cause serious negative financial consequences. I have no clue on any potential outcome; but they can’t be ignored.

Update on Brexit.

US withdrawal from Syria and Afghanistan will almost surely have some effects on Middle East politics and the fight against terror.  As you know, I think that we should wall the whole region off and let them keep killing each other until no one’s left or they figure out that is not a good strategy.  Getting our own troops out may be the next best thing: it will save the lives and money: [a] if the US had all the money that it has spent in the Middle East for meager if any long-term benefit, how much better offer would our fiscal situation be and how many young men would still be alive?  [b] why are we involved in an internecine Arab food fight?  We don’t need their oil.  What else do they have to offer us or the rest of the world?
Dates?

The ‘supposed’ inside story about the withdrawal decision.

(5)   economic difficulties around the globe.  The stats this week were very negligible but negative:  

[a] the October EU trade surplus was below estimates; November UK retail sales were above consensus; December German business sentiment was slightly below forecast,

[b] the November Japanese trade deficit was much larger than anticipated.

            Bottom line:  on a secular basis, the US economy is growing at an historically below average rate although I assume decreased regulation, the likely successful completion of the NAFTA 2.0 agreement and Trump’s spending cuts (assuming implementation) will improve that rate somewhat.  The long term positive potential from an altered Chinese industrial policy would have a meaningful effect on the US long term secular growth rate.

            However, these possible long term positives are being offset by a totally irresponsible fiscal policy.  Until evidence proves otherwise, my thesis is that cost of servicing the current level of the national debt and budget deficit is simply too high to allow any meaningful pick up in long term secular economic growth even with improvement from deregulation or the current trade regime (a caveat being if China does change its industrial policy).

Cyclically, the US economy to once again slowing.  (1) Removing the uncertainty of no NAFTA treaty should help return economic conditions within the three countries to what they were before, (2) increase in Chinese purchases of soybeans and oil and the lower tariffs on autos and (3) a slowdown in the rise of short-term interest rates will help keep the slowdown under control.  On the other hand, a weakening global economy points to slower growth.  As a result of these factors, my guess is that my initial US 2019 economic growth rate assumption will likely change as their impact becomes more apparent.

The Market-Disciplined Investing
           
  Technical

The Averages (DJIA 22445, S&P 2416) again started off the day on their front foot then faded through the day and closed down significantly. They both finished below both moving averages and are now in a pronounced very short-term downtrend.   The Dow finished below its February low, while the S&P ended below the lower boundary of its short-term trading range (also its February low) for a third day, resetting to a downtrend.

Volume was up; breadth was terrible again and is getting even more extremely oversold. 

The VIX was up 6%, ending above both moving averages and in a short-term uptrend.  Its chart remains strong which is bad on stocks.

The long bond was down two cents, but still closed above its 100 DMA (now support), above its 200 DMA (now support) and in a short-term trading range.  It appears that the rise in long term interest rates (decline in bond prices) is over. 

                And.

The dollar was up ½ %, ending below the lower boundary of its very short term up trend (just barely) for a second day, voiding that trend.  It still finished above both MA’s and in a short-term uptrend. So, the chart continues to be technically strong.

GLD was down ½ % on big volume, closing above its 100 DMA but right on its 200 DMA, negating Thursday’s move above it (now resistance). 

 Bottom line: the Averages continued their plunge with the S&P resetting its short-term trend to down.  To state the obvious, that is not good news.  Further, there is no sign of any slowing in downward momentum.  That said, the indices are becoming ever more oversold.  So, rally seems inevitable. 

Longer term, the next major support level for the S&P is ~1800, coincidentally roughly the same level as my Model’s 2019 Year End Fair Value.  Also remember that the lower boundary of the S&P’s intermediate term uptrend is ~1300; so, there is plenty more downside before real technical damage is incurred.

            The long bond is in trading ranges across all timeframes, suggesting the end of the 2016-2018 rise in rates.
           
            The dollar recovered Thursday’s loss, but not enough begin rebuilding a very short-term uptrend.  Still its chart remains strong and will likely continue to do so as long as there are increasing dollar funding (liquidity) problems. 

                Friday in the charts.

Fundamental-A Dividend Growth Investment Strategy

The DJIA and the S&P are still well above ‘Fair Value’ (as calculated by our Valuation Model), the improved regulatory environment and the potential pluses from trade and spending cuts notwithstanding.  At the moment, the important factors bearing on Fair Value (corporate profitability and the rate at which it is discounted) are:

(1)   the extent to which the economy is growing.  US economic activity is slowing; and the rest of the globe is slowing even faster than I expected.

It is certainly possible, even probable, that the US can continue to grow as the rest of the world slows.  But declining global growth will still act as a drag on any improvement.

My thesis is that, a trade war aside, the financing burden now posed by the massive [and growing] US deficit and debt is offsetting the positive effects of deregulation and fairer trade and will continue to constrain economic as well as profitability growth.

In short, the economy is not a negative [yet] but it is not a positive at current valuation levels.
           
(2)   the success of current trade negotiations.  If Trump is able to create a fairer political/trade regime, it would almost surely be a plus for secular earnings growth.  Having whiffed on NAFTA 2.0, the prospect of a meaningful change in the trade regime with China seems questionable, but if it happens, would be a big plus to the US long term secular economic growth rate. 

As I noted above, China’s move to buy more soybeans and oil along with lowering auto tariffs will help over the very near term.  Longer term, if our allies stand with us against China’s unfair trade practices AND it has the desired effect, that would be a huge plus.  I think it reasonable to be hopeful but nothing more.

(3)   the rate at which the global central banks unwind QE.  The Fed has reduced the rate at which it will hike the Fed Funds rate.  However, that is less important to QT than the run off of its balance sheet---and, at the moment, it appears that it will continue unabated. In addition, this week Draghi said that the ECB is on schedule to halt its bond purchase program.

On the other hand, the BOJ remains entrenched in its version of QE and the Chinese are using every policy tool available, including monetary easing, to stem the negative effects of the trade dispute with the US.  I have no clue how this dance of conflicting monetary policy will play.

However, I remain convinced that [a] QE has done and will continue to do harm in terms of the mispricing and misallocation of assets, [b] sooner or later that mispricing/misallocation will be reversed and [c] given the fact that the Markets were the prime beneficiaries of QE, they will be the ones that take the pain of its demise. 
      
(4)   the recent sell off has begun to rationalize valuations in some Market sectors, offering some buying opportunities.  But large segments remain overvalued, though investors are clearly beginning to balk in general. If there is follow through, then investors that have built cash positions for the last three years will be rewarded.

I hear lots of woe over the recent decline; and the S&P resetting its short-term trend to down won’t help.  But I repeat my comment above: the S&P can trade down to its next support level (~1800) which is also my Model’s 2019 Year End Fair Value and not even break the lower boundary of its intermediate term uptrend (~1300).

Bottom line: a new regulatory regime plus an improvement in our trade policies along with proposed spending cuts should have a positive impact on secular growth and, hence, equity valuations.  On the other hand, I believe that overall fiscal policy (growing deficits/debt) will have an opposite effect.  Making matters worse, monetary policy, sooner or later, will have to correct the mispricing and misallocation of assets---and that will be a negative for the Market.

The math in our Valuation Model is getting more reasonable.  The indices and some sectors of the Market remain overpriced.  However, other sectors have been beaten like a rented mule.  As you know, I am focusing on that set of companies as potential buy candidates.  Quality companies whose stocks are down 50% or more should be bought.

That said, I believe that there is more pain to come; so, my purchases, for the moment, will be small.  Still this situation is what I designed my Valuation for---to buy low after having sold high.

            The latest from Doug Kass.

            As a reminder, my Portfolio’s cash position didn’t reach its current level as a result of the Valuation Models estimate of Fair Value for the Averages.  Rather I apply it to each stock in my Portfolio and when a stock reaches its Sell Half Range (overvalued), I reduce the size of that holding.  That forces me to recognize a portion of the profit of a successful investment and, just as important, build a reserve to buy stocks cheaply when the inevitable decline occurs.

DJIA             S&P

Current 2018 Year End Fair Value*              13860             1711
Fair Value as of 12/31/18                               13860            1711
Close this week                                               24100            2599

* Just a reminder that the Year End Fair Value number is based on the long term secular growth of the earning power of productive capacity of the US economy not the near term   cyclical influences.  The model is now accounting for somewhat below average secular growth for the next 3 to 5 years. 

The Portfolios and Buy Lists are up to date.








Friday, December 21, 2018

The Morning Call--Subscriber Alert


The Morning Call

12/21/18

The Market
         
    Technical
               
The Averages (DJIA 22859, S&P 2467) got hammered again yesterday. They both finished below both moving averages and are now in a pronounced very short-term downtrend.   The Dow finished below its February low, while the S&P ended below the lower boundary of its short-term trading range (also its February low) for a second day; if it remains there through the close today, it will reset to a downtrend.

Volume was up; breadth was terrible but is now extremely oversold. 

The VIX was up 11%, returning to its normal (inverse) relationship to stocks.

The long bond was down ¼ % on huge volume, closing above its 100 DMA (now support), above its 200 DMA (now support) and in a short-term trading range.  It appears that the rise in long term interest rates (decline in bond prices) is over. 

The dollar was down ¾ %, ending below the lower boundary of its very short term up trend; if it remains there through the close today, that trend will be voided.  It still finished above both MA’s and in a short-term uptrend. So, the chart continues to be technically strong.

GLD was up 1 ½ % on big volume, closing above its 100 DMA as well as its 200 DMA (now resistance, if it remains there through the close next Tuesday, it will revert to support). 

 Bottom line: the Averages continued their plunge but have become so oversold that some kind of rally seems inevitable.  That said, barring a monster rally today, the S&P short term trend is going to turn down.  That doesn’t mean a bear market is inescapable, but clearly the odds are rising.  Further, as I noted previously, the next major support level for the S&P is ~1800. P.S. don’t forget that today is quad witching.

            The long bond is in trading ranges across all timeframes, suggesting the end of the 2016-2018 rise in rates.
           
            The dollar took a hit likely the result of the sudden reappearance of a government shutdown.  Even if that occurs, I don’t think that it will alter the upward trajectory of the dollar as long as there are increasing dollar funding (liquidity) problems. 

GLD’s pin action likely reflected its role as a safety trade.  

                Algos are starting to short the Market.

                Thursday in the charts.

    Fundamental

       Headlines

            Yesterday’s stats were weighed to the negative side: while weekly jobless claims fell less than anticipated, the December Philly Fed manufacturing index was abysmal, and the revised October/November leading economic indicators were weak.

            However, other issues dominated the headlines.

            Of course, the disappointing results of the FOMC meeting were front and center.    As you know I have opined for years that QE didn’t help the economy all that much, so ending it wouldn’t damage the economy all that much.  On the other hand, I believe that QE was in a large way responsible for the gross mispricing and misallocation of assets and when it ends, the return to real price discovery will be painful for the Markets. 

            Here are a couple of articles addressing the former issue:

(1)   While I have always thought this analyst a bit too cheery, he nonetheless conveys my point that the economy is doing fine [not great] in the face of rising rates and QT.

(2)   The risk of recession.

            And here is a look at the latest money supply numbers.

            Meanwhile, back at the White House.  Apparently, house republicans have given the Donald some backbone on the funding of the wall. Last night, they voted to fund it.  Now it looks like he will unblink.  It goes to the senate today, where Schumer insists that it won’t pass.  If not, then Trump says that he will shut down the government.

            Finally, the US has indicted two Chinese hackers and it appears several our allies will support this move.  I think that the latter is a big plus because it alerts China that it is just not the US that is tired of their cheating.  Knowing that others could be joining the US is attacking their unfair trade practices (assuming they follow through with actions that penalize the Chinese) will almost surely add pressure for the Chinese to clean up their act. 
           
Bottom line: I am not surprised that the securities markets are reacting negatively to shrinking liquidity; and I will not be surprised if the securities continue to react negatively if liquidity continues to shrink.

            The prospects of a government shutdown appear to be giving some investors heartburn.  As you know, I wish that they would shut down Washington permanently; so, I guess a temporary one is better than nothing.  Wishful thinking aside, any shutdown is not apt to do much if any damage to the economy.  However, Markets tend to not like them especially when the prevailing mood is negative.

I believe that if our allies really get on board with penalizing the Chinese for unfair trade practices, it will have a much greater impact on their behavior than if the US was acting alone.  Indeed, the Donald and his minions probably should have had them in on the whole sanctions/tariffs program before the US started it.  Better late than never; but it still a plus if the allies mean it. It will be interesting to see how the Chinese respond. 

            Dealing with hyperbole.

    Subscriber Alert

            At the Market open:

            The Dividend Growth Portfolio will Add to its position in Tiffany (TIF).  TIF is 46% off its high.

The High Yield Portfolio will establish a new position EQT Midstream Partners (EQM).  EQM is 50% off its high, yields 10%+ and carries the high credit rating (B++) among the MLP’s.

The ETF Portfolio will establish a new partial position in the ishares Russell 2000 value ETF (IWN).  IWN contains a large number of small cap stocks many of which have been hammered.  It is down 22%.
                  
           My strategy at this point is to just focus on the stocks that have been trashed and are down much more than the indices.  That is not to say that they won’t go lower; but as you know my Model is always gets me out early and in early.  Also remember that in a bear market, my Stop Loss discipline gets a little squishy because the downside can get so overdone.

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios
 
            Nike (NYSE:NKE): Q2 GAAP EPS of $0.52 beats by $0.07.
Revenue of $9.37B (+9.6% Y/Y) beats by $200M.
           

Economics

   This Week’s Data

      US

            The November economic indicators rose 0.2% versus expectations of unchanged; however, the October number was revised from +0.1% to -0.3%.
                      
November durable goods orders rose 0.8% versus estimates of +1.4%; ex transportation, they were down 0.3% versus forecasts of up 0.3%.

The final Q3 GDP report showed growth of 3.4% versus consensus of 3.5%; the price index was up 1.8% versus projection of up 1.7%; corporate profits were +6.1% versus the prior estimate of 5.9%.

International

            November UK retail sales rose 1.4% versus consensus of +0.3%.

    Other

            ***overnight, China announce plans for more fiscal and monetary stimulus.

What I am reading today

            Investing ideas that changed my life.

            Saturn is losing its rings.

            How to get your retirement plan on better footing.


Visit Investing for Survival’s website (http://investingforsurvival.com/home) to learn more about our Investment Strategy, Prices Disciplines and Subscriber Service.




Thursday, December 20, 2018

The Morning Call--Powell does the right thing, disappoints Markets


The Morning Call

12/20/18

The Market
         
    Technical

The Averages (DJIA 23323, S&P 2506) traded in a Dow 800+ point range, closing down substantially on the day. They both finished below both moving averages and are now in a pronounced very short term downtrend.   The Dow finished below its February low, while the S&P ended below the lower boundary of its short term trading range (also its February low); if it remains there through the close on Friday, it will reset to a downtrend.

Volume was up; breadth was terrible. 

The VIX was down ¼%, once again trading contrary to its normal pattern, suggesting that there is still a lot of investor nervousness.  That said, it nearing expiration; so it may have more to do with the technical issues surrounding that event than investor sentiment.

The long bond was soared 1 ¼ % on huge volume, closing above its 100 DMA (now support), above its 200 DMA (now support) and above the upper boundary of its short term downtrend for the third day, resetting to a trading range.  It appears that the rise in long term interest rates (decline in bond prices) is over. 

The dollar was up slightly, ending back above the lower boundary of its very short term up trend.  It remains above both MA’s and in a short term uptrend. So the chart continues to be technically strong.

GLD fell ½ % on big volume, but still finished above its 100 DMA.  Intraday, it challenged its 200 DMA but backed off.

 Bottom line: the Averages continue to get more oversold while also continuing to challenge ever lower support levels.  I have said several times that I thought the key to price direction was how the S&P trades around the lower boundary of its short term trading range.  In its third challenge of the support level, it pushed through and closed markedly lower.  Under my time and distance discipline, it must remain there through the close on Friday to confirm the challenge; but given yesterday’s dramatic intraday reversal, it seems likely to happen.  If that occurs, this decline becomes more than just a correction in long term bull market.  Further, as I noted previously, the next major support level for the S&P is ~1800.

            The long bond has reset its short term trend from down to a trading range, suggesting the end of the 2016-2018 rise in rates.
           
            The dollar’s chart remains quite strong and will likely continue to do so as long as dollar funding (liquidity) problems grow.  GLD’s pin action seemed to reflect a stronger dollar and rising short term interest rates.   

            Wednesday in the charts.

    Fundamental

       Headlines

            Yesterday’s stats were mixed: weekly mortgage and purchase applications fell, the Q3 trade deficit was in line and November existing home sales were well above estimates.

            Of course, the big news of the day was the FOMC’s action and forward guidance following its meeting.  The main points are (1) it raised the Fed Funds’ rate another .25%, (2) it will continue its schedule of balance sheet run off, (3) it lowered the number of likely rate increases in 2019 from three to two and (4) it said that the economy remained strong though it lowered its 2019 GDP growth forecast and acknowledged the difficulties occurring in the global economy.

                ***overnight, Bank of England leaves rates unchanged, largely due to the economic uncertainties surrounding Brexit.

                ***overnight, Bank of Japan leaves rates and QE unchanged.

            My bottom line is that (1) the forward guidance was not as dovish as many hoped [that is obvious in the Market’s reaction], (2) as long as QT is operative, the securities markets are likely to remain under pressure, (3) but the economy will still continue to grow at a below average pace and (4) a reminder that there is nothing in the Fed mandate about stabilizing securities markets.  Granted the Bernanke/Yellen Fed did just that; but that doesn’t mean that it is wise policy or that Powell will continue it.

            Low probability of recession.

            Counterpoints:

            Why the Fed should be cautious about raising rates (and QE).

            No need for an unforced error.

            I like the work this author does.  Indeed, I read all of his articles.  In this one, he poo poos the notion that QE caused stock prices to advance.  For some reason, he leaves out any mention of QE resulting in zero interest rates, the chase for yield, the lowering of credit standards and the ability of large hedge funds and corporations to borrow cheaply to buy stocks.

            Bottom line: the Fed has spoken and it said the QT will remain on schedule.  My thesis remains that the unwind of the Fed’s balance sheet will not be good for securities’ prices.

            I am working on Buy candidates.
      
            The latest from David Tepper.

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios
 
Paychex (NASDAQ:PAYX): Q2 GAAP EPS of $0.65 beats by $0.02.
Revenue of $858.9M (+7.0% Y/Y) in-line.

Accenture (NYSE:ACN): Q1 GAAP EPS of $1.96 beats by $0.11.
Revenue of $10.61B (+7.4% Y/Y) beats by $130M

Economics

   This Week’s Data

      US

            November existing home sales were up 1.9% versus expectations of down 0.5%.

                Weekly jobless claims rose 8,000 versus estimates of +14,000.

            The December Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index came in at 9.4 versus consensus of 16.5.

     International

    Other

            It appears that the US is exiting Syria---to which I say, thank God.  The US has been wasting money and lives trying to reform a culture that doesn’t want to be reformed.  Now let’s get out of Afghanistan and Iraq.

                

What I am reading today

           

Visit Investing for Survival’s website (http://investingforsurvival.com/home) to learn more about our Investment Strategy, Prices Disciplines and Subscriber Service.