Friday, October 24, 2025

The Morning Call--QT is over.

 

The Morning Call

 

10/24/25

 

The Market

         

    Technical

 

            Thursday in the charts.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/everythings-amid-geopolitical-chaos

 

            The latest from Goldman’s desk.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/its-choppy-de-grossing-tape-retail-still-rules-roost-goldman

 

            Goldman still bullish gold.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/precious-metals/goldman-still-structurally-bullish-gold-maintains-4900-target

 

            The technicals on gold.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/gold-if-bounce-imagine-next-leg-down

 

            Thursday in the technical stats.

            https://www.barchart.com/stocks/momentum

            https://www.barchart.com/stocks/sectors/rankings

            https://www.barchart.com/stocks/signals/new-recommendations

 

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

 

September CPI was up 0.3% versus expectations of up 0.4%; core CPI was up 0.2% versus +0.3%.

                          https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/cooler-expected-cpi-data-leaves-fed-track-rate-cuts

 

                          September existing home sales rose 1.5% versus consensus of -2.0%.

                          https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2025/10/23/existing-home-sales-rise-1-5-to-7-month-high

 

The October Kansas City Fed manufacturing index was 15.0 versus projections of 6.0.

                                      https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2025/10/23/kansas-city-fed-manufacturing-highest-level-in-over-3-years

 

                        International

 

The August Japanese leading economic indicators were reported at 107.0 versus estimates of 107.4; the September CPI was +0.1% versus 0.0%.

 

September UK retail sales were up 0.5% versus predictions of -0.1%; ex fuel, they were up 0.6% versus -0.2%.

 

The October EU flash consumer confidence index came in at -14.2 versus forecasts of -15.4.

 

The October Japanese flash manufacturing PMI was 48.3 versus expectations of 48.8; the flash services PMI was 52.4 versus 53.0; the flash composite PMI was 50.9 versus 51.2; the October German flash manufacturing PMI was 49.6 versus 49.0; the flash services PMI was 54.5 versus 51.1; the flash composite PMI was 53.8 versus 50.5; the October EU flash manufacturing PMI was 50.0 versus expectations of 49.1; the flash services PMI was 52.6 versus 50.9; the flash composite PMI was 52.2 versus 50.5; the October UK flash manufacturing PMI was 49.6 versus expectations of 46.7; the flash services PMI was 51.1, in line; the flash composite PMI was 51.1 versus 50.5.

 

                        Other

 

                          The impact on consumer consumption of a 2001 type Market correction.

                          https://econbrowser.com/archives/2025/10/what-if-an-equity-market-correction-like-2001

 

                          Update on Q3 nowcasts.

                          https://www.capitalspectator.com/us-q3-gdp-appears-to-remain-on-growth-track/

 

                          The economy is still moving forward.

                          Economy Still Moving Forward

 

            Monetary Policy

 

              QE revisionism.

              https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2025-10-23/qe-revisionism-in-a-world-drowning-in-debt?srnd=homepage-americas&sref=loFkkPMQ

 

              QT is over.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/qt-over-goldman-jpmorgan-see-fed-flipping-reserves-tumble-below-3-trillion

 

            Fiscal Policy

 

              The case against Trump’s industrial policies.

              https://www.civitasinstitute.org/research/trumps-industrial-policies-will-strangle-growth

 

              US Treasury debt hits $38 trillion.

              https://wolfstreet.com/2025/10/22/us-treasury-debt-hits-38-trillion-after-spiking-by-1-trillion-in-2-5-months-and-by-1-8-trillion-since-the-debt-ceiling/

 

            Tariffs

 

How tariffs are affecting prices. I am incapable of evaluating the logic and veracity of the mathematics of this study; but the outcome doesn’t surprise me. The study was done by the St. Louis Fed, so the FOMC members have undoubtedly read it. One would think that it would weigh on their employment versus inflation policy trade-off.

https://www.stlouisfed.org/on-the-economy/2025/oct/how-tariffs-are-affecting-prices-2025

 

              Trump terminates all trade talk with Canada.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/trump-terminates-all-trade-talks-canada-us-equity-futures-dxy-gains-cpi-newsquawk-us

 

     Investing

 

            Gold as an equity hedge.

            https://www.ft.com/content/ef885f08-ab95-4190-8d48-23b8068b9da7

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

General Dynamics press release (NYSE:GD): Q3 GAAP EPS of $3.88 beats by $0.17.

Revenue of $12.9B (+10.6% Y/Y) beats by $370M.

 

What I am reading today

 

            The real story of Sacagawea.

                Who was Sacagawea? Here’s the story of her critical role in U.S. exploration | National Geographic

 

            How corruption has amended the constitution.

            https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2025/10/the-american-augean-stables-how-corruption-has-amended-the-constitution.html

 

 

Visit Investing for Survival’s website (http://investingforsurvival.com/home) to learn more about our Investment Strategy, Prices Disciplines and Subscriber Service.

 

 

 

No comments:

Post a Comment