The Morning Call---The US/China trade war---what now?

 

The Morning Call

 

10/16/25

 

I am taking the rest of the week off.

 

The Market

         

    Technical

 

            Wednesday in the charts.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/market-recaps/gold-hits-new-record-high-bessentbeijing-battle-sparks-stock-swings

 

                Wednesday in the technical stats.

            https://www.barchart.com/stocks/momentum

            https://www.barchart.com/stocks/sectors/rankings

            https://www.barchart.com/stocks/signals/new-recommendations

 

            The latest from Citadel’s trading desk.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/retail-still-buying-dip-citadel-flows-guru-closely-monitoring-systematic-equity-supply

 

            The S&P’s chaotic order.

            https://politicalcalculations.blogspot.com/2025/10/the-s-500s-chaotic-order-in-2025.html

 

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

 

The Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index came in at -12.8 versus estimates of +4.0.

 

                        International

 

August Japanese machine tool orders fell 0.9% versus predictions of +0.5%.

 

August UK GDP grew 0.1%, in line; the August trade balance was -L3.4 billion versus -L5.1 billion; August industrial production was up 0.4% versus +0.5%.

 

The August EU trade balance was +E1.0 billion versus consensus of +E9.1 billion.

 

                        Other

 

                          The latest from Ed Yardini.

                          DEEP DIVE: Slim Pickin's Among Economic Indicators

 

            Monetary Policy

 

              The Fed released its latest Beige Book---nothingburger.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/beige-book-finds-little-change-economic-activity-ai-gets-blamed-weak-labor-market

 

            Fiscal Policy

 

This is one way to cut the budget. But I worry that (1) it is unconstitutional and (2) it gives the opposition a roadmap when they are in control.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-10-15/trump-s-shutdown-power-grab-goes-unchecked-by-gop-lawmakers?srnd=homepage-americas&sref=loFkkPMQ

 

And speaking of the courts.

https://www.zerohedge.com/political/another-judge-hijacks-oval-office-halts-federal-filings-during-shutdown

 

            Inflation

 

              The bond market continues to downplay inflation.

              https://www.capitalspectator.com/bond-market-continues-to-downplay-inflation-risk/

 

              Falling inflation predicts greater government spending/debt.

              https://www.realclearmarkets.com/articles/2025/10/15/falling_inflation_predicts_rising_government_spending_and_debt_1140729.html

 

            Tariffs

 

              US/China trade war---what now?

              https://www.carsongroup.com/insights/blog/us-china-trade-war-3-0-now-what/

 

     Investing

 

            The stock market is looking like a bubble.

            https://www.nytimes.com/2025/10/14/opinion/ai-bubble-stock-market-tech-stocks.html

 

            Is a financial crash around the corner?

https://theweek.com/business/economy/financial-market-crash-ahead-artificial-intelligence?refid=75FFC898AD6883CBB120FC6A86C62323&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=afternoon_newsletter_20251014&utm_source=afternoon_newsletter

 

Financial institution leaders issue warning of frothy market. (if you think that the above two articles are negative, hold on to your jockstrap when you read this).

https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2025/10/financial-institution-leaders-issue-more-warnings-of-equity-market-froth-dodgy-debt-bombs.html

 

Counterpoint.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-10-15/blue-owl-chief-says-look-to-banks-loans-for-dimon-s-cockroaches?srnd=homepage-americas&sref=loFkkPMQ

 

Another not so optimistic analysis.

https://www.advisorperspectives.com/commentaries/2025/10/15/reading-without-rose-tinted-glasses

 

AI cap ex growth is slowing.

https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/ai-high-turns-hangover-capex-cools-and-clicks-fall

 

An interesting theory on corporate capital investment; except this time it hasn’t worked (so far). The article includes another enlightening study that suggests that a divided government isn’t as good for the market as a unified one.

            https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-stock-market-performs-much-better-when-the-government-is-actually-doing-its-job-d071f9d1?st=fHgVwE

 

                        Gold is the ultimate belief asset.

            https://behaviouralinvestment.com/2025/10/14/gold-is-the-ultimate-belief-asset/

 

                        The ‘debasement trade’ is mostly hype.

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2025-10-15/the-great-debasement-trade-is-mostly-just-hype-from-hedge-funds-and-doomsters?srnd=homepage-americas&sref=loFkkPMQ

 

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

What I am reading today

 

            Big changes are coming to your Medicare plan.

            https://mishtalk.com/economics/will-your-medicare-plan-be-cancelled-expect-to-pay-more-and-get-less/

 

                        Why mortgage rates might not keep falling.

            https://www.morningstar.com/economy/why-mortgage-rates-might-not-keep-falling

                       

            The mind altering effect of a good workout routine.

            https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2025/10/happiness-exercise-routine-emotions/684409/

 

                        The slowly mounting mineral shock.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/energy/slowly-mounting-mineral-shock

 

 

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