11/22/21
I am taking the week off.
The
Market
Technical
The S&P continued
its consolidation process last week; but nothing that would suggest a reversal
of fortune. ‘The upward seasonal bias seems
in place. Sit back and enjoy it.’
Friday facts to
consider.
https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/fridaypain
In case you forgot
1999.
https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/ce7my5oxfw
More on a yearend
melt up.
https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/ingredients
11/22/21
The
Market
Technical
The S&P continued
its consolidation process last week; but nothing that would suggest a reversal
of fortune. ‘The upward seasonal bias seems
in place. Sit back and enjoy it.’
Friday facts to
consider.
https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/fridaypain
In case you forgot
1999.
https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/ce7my5oxfw
More on a yearend
melt up.
https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/ingredients
The pin action in
the long bond remains somewhat confounding.
After a two week selloff which suggested that investors were discounting
a strengthening economy/higher inflation, the TLT promptly rallied. In the process, it challenged the 100 DMA resistance
on Friday which had just been reset on Thursday. That was largely in response to a Fed governor’s
hawkish statement, the circuitous reasoning apparently being that a tightening Fed
(higher interest rates) = weaker economy= lower interest rates. In other words, higher rates near term equals
lower rates longer term.
Interest rates
matter.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/rising-interest-rates-matter-stock-market
GLD consolidated for most of last week, but sold off
on Friday on the aforementioned Fed governor’s hawkish statement---which was
the exact opposite of the bond market’s reaction (gold usually rises when bond
prices go up). From a strictly technical
perspective, GLD does need to fill that gap up open from the prior Wednesday, so
from that point of view, Friday’s decline makes sense.
The dollar just
keeps on truckin’. As I noted last week,
that suggests that ‘it may also be reflecting investor conviction
that whatever the economy/Fed/ Biden does, the US will still be a better place
to invest than anywhere else on the planet.’
In my mind, these
four indices appear to be discounting varying, conflicting economic scenarios---which
always makes me nervous. It maybe too
soon to throw in the towel on stocks but I would have my finger on the trigger. I don’t know what to do with bonds and gold
but a dollar bet seems to make sense.
Friday in the
charts.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/recovery-bets-battered-crude-crypto-crushed-covid-crisis-re-worsens
Part 2.
https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/fridayobservation
Fundamental
Headlines
The
Economy
Review of Last Week
Last week was another
relatively quiet one with respect to the economic stats. In the US, they were slightly positive and upbeat
primary indicators outweighed the negatives two to one. So, the erratic dataflow continues---implying
struggling growth.
Overseas, there were
lots of datapoints and they were hugely positive. Whether they stay that way in the face of a
potential energy shortage and renewed lockdowns is another is issue.
My take on the
economy remains unchanged---it is struggling to grow, hampered by increasingly
irresponsible monetary and fiscal policies, getting no support from the global
economy and threatened by seemingly mounting inflationary forces.
US
The October
Chicago national activity index came in at .76 versus estimate of .9.
International
Other
The
Fed
The Fed takes on yet another mandate.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/st-louis-feds-tweet-gets-ratioed-after-telling-people-eat-plants-thanksgiving
The
coronavirus
UK non-Covid deaths rising.
https://www.zerohedge.com/medical/rise-uk-non-covid-deaths-set-continue-cancer-expert
Bottom line.
The latest from Jim
Grant.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/jim-grant-fed-reminds-me-speculator-wrong-side-market
News on Stocks in Our Portfolios
FedEx (NYSE:FDX) declares $0.75/share quarterly dividend, in line with previous.
What
I am reading today
Will the JFK
assassination records ever be released?
https://www.zerohedge.com/political/will-cias-jfk-assassinated-related-records-ever-get-released
Visit Investing for Survival’s
website (http://investingforsurvival.com/home)
to learn more about our Investment Strategy, Prices Disciplines and Subscriber
Service.
The pin action in
the long bond remains somewhat confounding.
After a two week selloff which suggested that investors were discounting
a strengthening economy/higher inflation, the TLT promptly rallied. In the process, it challenged the 100 DMA resistance
on Friday which had just been reset on Thursday. That was largely in response to a Fed governor’s
hawkish statement, the circuitous reasoning apparently being that a tightening Fed
(higher interest rates) = weaker economy= lower interest rates. In other words, higher rates near term equals
lower rates longer term.
Interest rates
matter.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/rising-interest-rates-matter-stock-market
GLD consolidated for most of last week, but sold off
on Friday on the aforementioned Fed governor’s hawkish statement---which was
the exact opposite of the bond market’s reaction (gold usually rises when bond
prices go up). From a strictly technical
perspective, GLD does need to fill that gap up open from the prior Wenesday, so
from that point of view, Friday’s decline makes sense.
The dollar just
keeps on truckin’. As I noted last week,
that suggests that ‘it may also be reflecting investor conviction
that whatever the economy/Fed/ Biden does, the US will still be a better place
to invest than anywhere else on the planet.’
In my mind, these
four indices appear to be discounting varying, conflicting economic scenarios---which
always makes me nervous. It maybe too
soon to throw in the towel on stocks but I would have my finger on the trigger. I don’t know what to do with bonds and gold
but a dollar bet seems to make sense.
Friday in the
charts.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/recovery-bets-battered-crude-crypto-crushed-covid-crisis-re-worsens
Part 2.
https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/fridayobservation
Fundamental
Headlines
The
Economy
Review of Last Week
Last week was another
relatively quiet one with respect to the economic stats. In the US, they were slightly positive and upbeat
primary indicators outweighed the negatives two to one. So, the erratic dataflow continues---implying
struggling growth.
Overseas, there were
lots of datapoints and they were hugely positive. Whether they stay that way in the face of a
potential energy shortage and renewed lockdowns is another is issue.
My take on the
economy remains unchanged---it is struggling to grow, hampered by increasingly
irresponsible monetary and fiscal policies, getting no support from the global
economy and threatened by seemingly mounting inflationary forces.
US
The October
Chicago national activity index came in at .76 versus estimate of .9.
International
Other
The
Fed
The Fed takes on yet another mandate.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/st-louis-feds-tweet-gets-ratioed-after-telling-people-eat-plants-thanksgiving
The
coronavirus
UK non-Covid deaths rising.
https://www.zerohedge.com/medical/rise-uk-non-covid-deaths-set-continue-cancer-expert
Bottom line.
The latest from Jim
Grant.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/jim-grant-fed-reminds-me-speculator-wrong-side-market
News on Stocks in Our Portfolios
FedEx (NYSE:FDX) declares $0.75/share quarterly dividend, in line with previous.
What
I am reading today
Will the JFK
assassination records ever be released?
https://www.zerohedge.com/political/will-cias-jfk-assassinated-related-records-ever-get-released
Visit Investing for Survival’s
website (http://investingforsurvival.com/home)
to learn more about our Investment Strategy, Prices Disciplines and Subscriber
Service.
