The Morning Call---The two sides of our deficit/debt problem

 

The Morning Call

 

6/18/25

 

The Market

         

    Technical

 

            Tuesday in the charts.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/trump-threats-hard-data-dump-sink-stocks-crypto-bonds-dollar-bid

 

                Tuesday in the technical stats.

            https://www.barchart.com/stocks/momentum

            https://www.barchart.com/stocks/sectors/sectors-heat-map

 

            Everyone is short the dollar.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/biggest-pain-trade-long-us-dollar-latest-fund-manager-survey-finds-everyone-short-buck

 

            Strategic silver.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/strategic-silver-fuelling-missiles-and-gpus

 

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

 

Weekly mortgage applications fell 2.6% while purchase applications were down 3.0%.

           

Weekly initial jobless claims totaled 245,000 versus projections of 245,000.

 

                          Month to date retail chain store sales grew faster than in the prior week.

 

                          May industrial production declined 0.2% versus forecasts of +0.1%.

 

May housing starts were down 9.8% versus an anticipated decline of 0.8%; May building permits were off 2.0% versus -1.5%,

                          https://www.zerohedge.com/personal-finance/housing-starts-permits-plunge-weakest-covid-lockdowns

 

                          The June housing index came in at 32 versus predictions of 36.

                          https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2025/06/17/nahb-housing-market-index-builder-confidence-june-2025

 

                        International

 

April Japanese machine orders declined 9.1% versus estimates of -9/7%; the May trade balance was -Y647.6 billion versus -Y893 billion.

 

May UK CPI was +0.2%, in line; core CPI was also +0.2% also in line.

 

May EU CPI was 0.0%, in line.

 

                        Other

 

                          Implications of the recent retail sales and industrial production data.

                          https://bonddad.blogspot.com/2025/06/industrial-and-manufacturing-production.html

 

            Monetary Policy

 

              Ed Yardini’s thoughts on today’s FOMC meeting.

              "UNCONDITONAL SURRENDER"

 

              From ZeroHedge: no change but watch the dot plot.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/fomc-preview-fed-too-uncertain-change-anything-watch-hawkish-dots

 

              Don’t raise the inflation rate target.

              https://www.econlib.org/mission-accomplished/

 

            Fiscal Policy

 

              The absurdity of our ruling class’s approach to the big, beautiful bill.

              https://allisonschrager.substack.com/p/fair-weather-hawks

 

              Senate changes to the big beautiful bill.

              https://mishtalk.com/economics/the-senate-makes-big-changes-to-trumps-one-big-beautiful-bill/

 

              The potential good news for our deficit/debt problem.

              https://www.advisorperspectives.com/commentaries/2025/06/16/deficit-narrative-may-find-cure-artificial-intelligence

 

              Counterpoint.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/political/open-letter-president-addressing-our-debt

 

DOGE probably won’t/wouldn’t have worked because congress/Trump would have just spent the savings on something else.

              https://www.realclearmarkets.com/articles/2025/06/17/spending_cuts_wont_shrink_government_and_may_well_expand_it_1116944.html

 

 

              Government cannot create prosperity.

              https://www.realclearmarkets.com/articles/2025/06/17/contra_klaus_schwab_government_cannot_create_prosperity_1116989.html

 

            Recession

 

              Update on recession odds.

              https://politicalcalculations.blogspot.com/2025/06/us-recession-odds-holding-mostly-steady.html

 

              Update on big four recession indictors.

              https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2025/06/17/the-big-four-recession-indicators-real-retail-sales-fall-1-0-in-may

 

Despite all the doomsday forecasts, the economy is still making progress. I would add: in spite of the machinations of our ruling class (tariffs, deficit spending). It is a tribute to American ingenuity and hard work.

https://www.foxnews.com/opinion/lefts-tariff-doomsday-predictions-fall-flat-trumps-america-thrives

 

            Geopolitics

 

              The redirection trap.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/trump-falling-hershs-prophetic-redirection-trap-iran-3-views-whats-next

 

    Investing

 

            The uncertainty of uncertainty.

            https://alhambrapartners.com/weekly-market-pulse-the-uncertainty-of-uncertainty/?src=news

 

             Five Star manager on investing in AI.

            https://www.marketwatch.com/story/this-five-star-fund-manager-says-even-smart-investors-have-been-missing-the-greatest-theme-of-our-time-393b40ba

 

            What if you missed the Markets best N days?

            https://www.aqr.com/Insights/Perspectives/So-What-If-You-Miss-the-Markets-N-Best-Days

 

            Managing the noise.

            https://ritholtz.com/2025/06/manage-the-noise/

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

 

 

What I am reading today

 

           

 

 

Visit Investing for Survival’s website (http://investingforsurvival.com/home) to learn more about our Investment Strategy, Prices Disciplines and Subscriber Service.

 

 

 

The Morning Call--10 year Treasury still worried about inflation

 

The Morning Call

 

3/14/25

 

The Market

         

    Technical

 

            Thursday in the charts.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/market-recaps/gold-spikes-record-high-tariff-tumult-schumer-shutdown-slam-stocks

 

            More.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/muted-volatility-cheap-tech-and-shiny-gold

 

            Why cooler inflation data didn’t lift the Market.

            Why Cooler Inflation Isn't Lifting Markets

           

            Elliott Wave analysis on silver.

            https://talkmarkets.com/content/commodities/silver-commodity-elliott-wave-technical-analysis?post=486611

 

            Is the whole selloff in bitcoin finally over?

            https://talkmarkets.com/content/bitcoin-shows-signs-of-recovery-is-the-whale-sell-off-finally-over?post=486638

 

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

                         

                        International

 

January UK industrial production fell 0.9% versus expectations of -0.1%; January YoY construction output was up 0.2% versus up 0.4%; January YoY GDP growth was +1.0% versus +1.2%.

 

February German CPI was up 0.4%, in line; February PPI was up 0.6% versus +0.2%.

 

                        Other

 

                          Thursday in the economic charts.

                          https://dailyshotbrief.com/the-daily-shot-brief-march-12th-2025/

 

1.1  million homeowners with negative equity.

  https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2025/03/corelogic-11-million-homeowners-with.html

 

                          Yesterday’s PPI number not as benign as it looked.

                          https://bonddad.blogspot.com/2025/03/producer-prices-may-show-first.html

 

            Overnight News

 

              Schumer folds.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/political/schumer-shutdown-two-ways-can-go

 

Canada's Finance Minister LeBlanc said they agreed to continue discussions in the meeting with US Commerce Secretary Lutnick, while they have been clear that they will not reopen USMCA provisions on dairy and didn't discuss that with Lutnick.

 

Canada's Industry Minister Champagne said there was a mutual understanding that there is an impact on both sides of the border from tariffs and they talked about issues around economic security and national security with US Commerce Secretary Lutnick. Furthermore, they talked about Canadian aluminum steel and how they can help the US.

 

Ontario's Premier Ford said they had a productive meeting with US Commerce Secretary Lutnick and will have another meeting next week, while he feels temperatures are decreasing and said it was the best meeting they had since tariff talks began.

 

            Fiscal Policy

           

              One fact missing from every DOGE story.

              https://issuesinsights.com/2025/03/11/one-fact-missing-from-every-doge-story/

 

            Inflation

 

The market premium on the 10 year Treasury suggests continuing market concern over inflation.

              https://www.capitalspectator.com/10-year-us-treasury-yield-fair-value-estimate-13-march-2025/

 

            Tariffs

 

              MAGA’s manufacturing nostalgia.

              https://www.nationalreview.com/corner/magas-manufacturing-nostalgia/

 

            The EU/US trade war escalates.

            https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-03-13/trump-vows-200-tariff-on-eu-wine-escalating-trade-tensions?srnd=homepage-americas&sref=loFkkPMQ

 

     Investing

 

            Are tariffs the real reason behind this selloff?

            https://sherwood.news/markets/for-markets-trumps-tariff-threats-are-quantitative-easing-in-reverse/

 

            Untradeable market.

            https://www.nytimes.com/2025/03/13/business/trump-stock-market.html

 

            ‘Buy the dip’ fades to not ‘catching a falling knife’.

            https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-03-13/-buy-the-dip-calls-fade-as-trump-selloffs-rattle-wall-street?srnd=homepage-americas&sref=loFkkPMQ

 

            Stagflation bet emerges as the winner.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-03-13/stagflation-trade-emerges-as-rare-winner-in-us-stock-market-rout?srnd=homepage-americas&sref=loFkkPMQ

 

            The argument against a ‘crypto reserve’ fund.

            https://www.thefp.com/p/trumps-crypto-fort-knox

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

Kroger (NYSE:KR) declares $0.32/share quarterly dividend, in line with previous.

 

What I am reading today

 

           

 

 

Visit Investing for Survival’s website (http://investingforsurvival.com/home) to learn more about our Investment Strategy, Prices Disciplines and Subscriber Service.

 

 

 

 

The Morning Call

 

2/26/25

 

 

 

The Market

         

    Technical

 

            Tuesday in the charts.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/market-recaps/midst-negative-feedback-loop-bonds-bid-retail-rout-wrecks-everything-else

 

            How much more downside?

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/what-inning-are-we-goldman-sees-more-pain-come-momo-unwind

 

            Nearing a short term low.

            https://talkmarkets.com/content/stocks--equities/a-low-in-the-market-is-near?post=483934

           

            So far in 2025, Fridays are the new Mondays.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/2025-fridays-are-new-mondays

 

            Gold at overbought level, but…..

            https://talkmarkets.com/content/commodities/gold-prices-surge-to-new-highs-despite-overbought?post=484053

 

            And silver sentiment soars.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/precious-metals/bitcoin-fades-gold-sees-huge-etf-inflows-silver-sentiment-soars

 

            Bitcoin is retesting important level.

            https://talkmarkets.com/content/bitcoin-once-again-arrives-at-this-bear-bull-boundary-will-a-break-happen?post=484102

 

            How correlated is crypto to the Market?

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/worried-about-crypto-and-its-connection-markets

           

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

 

Weekly mortgage applications declined 1.2% while purchase applications were flat.

 

                          Month to date retail chain store sales grew slower than in the prior week.

 

The December Case Shiller home price index fell 0.1% versus consensus of 0.0%.

                          https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2025/02/25/sp-corelogic-case-shiller-home-price-index-december-2024

 

                                                   More details.

                          https://bonddad.blogspot.com/2025/02/unwelcome-news-for-homebuyers-and-cpi.html

 

The February Richmond Fed manufacturing index came in at 6 versus projections of -3.

                          https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2025/02/25/richmond-fed-manufacturing-activity-improved-february-2025

 

February consumer confidence was reported at 98.3 versus estimates of 102.5.

                          https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2025/02/25/consumer-confidence-dropped-sharply-february-2025

 

                        International

 

The December Japanese leading economic indicators were 108.3 versus predictions of 108.9.

 

The March German consumer confidence index was -24.7 versus forecasts of -21.4.

 

                        Other

 

                          Tuesday in the economic charts.

                          https://dailyshotbrief.com/the-daily-shot-brief-february-24th-2025/

 

                          Ten charts on consumer confidence and jobs.

                          In 10 Charts: Consumer Confidence & Jobs

 

                          One week does not a trend make.

                          https://alhambrapartners.com/weekly-market-pulse-tune-out-the-noise/?src=news

 

                          Update on economic policy uncertainty.

                          https://econbrowser.com/archives/2025/02/epu-today-655

 

            Overnight News

 

President Donald Trump signed an executive order on Tuesday instructing the Department of Commerce to investigate whether to impose tariffs on copper and derivative products, key industrial materials, in order to protect national security. This sets the stage for more trade friction with Canada and Mexico, as well as Chile and Peru.

 

Ukraine and Washington have struck a minerals rights deal, and Zelensky is expected to travel to Washington later in the week for a signing ceremony w/Trump.

 

House Republicans approved a budget framework for President Donald Trump’s sweeping domestic policy agenda Tuesday — a major victory for Speaker Mike Johnson who worked with Trump and fellow leaders in a chaotic last-ditch effort to win over naysayers within the GOP ranks.

 

US President Trump said will begin a program to sell 'Trump gold cards' for USD 5mln for foreigners who want to come to the US and create jobs with the sale of gold cards to start in about two weeks.

 

The US House Ways and Means Committee has reportedly had discussions about options like ratcheting up taxes on public companies’ stock buybacks or adjusting limits on deducting executive pay, according to sources cited by Punchbowl. "Proposals such as raising endowment taxes on universities and significant cuts to clean energy tax credits are being viewed as even more likely".

 

            Monetary Policy

 

              Interpreting Trump policies is not easy for the Fed.

              https://www.capitalspectator.com/politics-and-policy-clouds-path-ahead-for-fed/

 

              The ECB is sounding like our Fed (i.e., one the one hand, on the other hand).

              https://www.wsj.com/articles/ecb-can-keep-cutting-rates-as-inflation-approaches-target-bundesbanks-nagel-says-359fe7c5?mod=economy_lead_pos1

 

              Bank of Korea cuts rates.

              https://www.wsj.com/articles/bank-of-korea-cuts-rate-lowers-growth-forecast-4b846621?mod=economy_lead_pos4

 

            Fiscal Policy

 

              Could Trump policies break the dollar/stock market?

              https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/could-mar-lago-accord-break-stocks-market

 

            The Financial System

 

              The number of troubled banks decreased in Q4.

              https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2025/02/fdic-number-of-problem-banks-decreased.html

 

            Tariffs

 

              Tariffs won’t bring a golden age to America.

              https://www.realclearmarkets.com/articles/2025/02/25/tariffs_wont_create_the_golden_age_of_america_1093222.html

 

                Geopolitics

 

              Ukraine agrees to mineral deal with US.

              https://www.ft.com/content/1890d104-1395-4393-a71d-d299aed448e6

 

                  A new detente?

             https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/russia-us-diplomatic-choreography-un-shows-their-commitment-new-detente

               

 

      Investing

 

            No one likes uncertainty.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/nobody-likes-uncertainty-least-all-stock-market

 

            The pace of disruption.

https://www.riskhedge.com/outplacement/it-sneaks-up-on-you...-then-explodes/rcm?utm_campaign=RH-144&utm_content=RH144OP743&utm_medium=ED&utm_source=rcm

 

            Changes in corporate governance.

            https://www.ft.com/content/85eccee4-3890-4c25-bd89-eb522b95efb9

 

            The best and worst years of the S&P 500.

            https://politicalcalculations.blogspot.com/2025/02/the-best-and-worst-years-of-s-500.html

 

            Best trading practices.

            https://traderfeed.blogspot.com/2025/02/what-are-your-best-trading-practices.html

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

What I am reading today

 

            Quote of the day.

            https://cafehayek.com/2025/02/quotation-of-the-day-4931.html

           

                        The rich getting richer.

            https://awealthofcommonsense.com/2025/02/the-top-10/

 

            Kyle Bass on Chinese ownership of US land.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/kyle-bass-sounds-alarm-over-chinas-insane-battlefield-asymmetries-us-land-ownership

 

Visit Investing for Survival’s website (http://investingforsurvival.com/home) to learn more about our Investment Strategy, Prices Disciplines and Subscriber Service.