The Morning Call---Inflation is coming no matter what the Fed does

 

The Morning Call

 

9/12/25

 

The Market

         

    Technical

 

            Thursday in the charts.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/market-recaps/calm-consumer-prices-send-rate-cut-odds-soaring-gold-tops-inflation-adjusted-record

 

                        Thursday in the technical stats.

            https://www.barchart.com/stocks/momentum

            https://www.barchart.com/stocks/sectors/rankings

            https://www.barchart.com/stocks/signals/new-recommendations

 

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

 

The August US budget deficit was $345.0 billion versus consensus of -$310 billion.

                          https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/us-deficit-explodes-august-despite-rising-tariff-revenues-government-spending-soars

 

                        International

 

July Japanese industrial production fell 1.2% versus expectations of -1.6%; capacity utilization was down 1.1% versus +1.0%; August PPI was -0.2% versus -0.1%.

 

July UK GDP growth was 0.0% versus estimates of +0.1%; the July trade balance was -L22.2 billion versus -L21.8 billion; July industrial production was down 0.9% versus -0.1%; July YoY construction output was up 2.4% versus +1.5%.

 

August German CPI was +0.1%, in line.

 

                        Other

 

                          More on yesterday’s jobless claims number.

                          https://talkmarkets.com/content/initial-claims-have-a-texas-sized-increase?post=522082

 

            Fiscal Policy

 

              The GOP once knew how to fix the deficit.

              https://www.foxnews.com/opinion/sen-rand-paul-gop-once-knew-how-fix-deficit-now-theyre-losing-battle

 

            Inflation

 

              Update on instantaneous core inflation.

              https://econbrowser.com/archives/2025/09/instantaneous-core-inflation-3

 

              Inflation is coming no matter what the Fed does.

              https://www.pringturner.com/there-is-an-eighth-member-of-the-fomc-and-his-name-is-mr-market/

 

              More on Tuesday’s PPI number.

              https://wolfstreet.com/2025/09/10/my-thoughts-about-that-august-producer-price-index/

 

              Inflation remains hotter than hoped.

              https://talkmarkets.com/content/us-inflation-remains-hotter-than-hoped-but-the-feds-focus-is-now-jobs?post=522081

 

            Tariffs

 

The case against Trump’s tariff policies. Note: the issue is the Constitution (separation of powers) not economics whatever the disagreement is over fiscal wisdom of tariffs.

https://www.wsj.com/economy/trade/tariff-case-could-give-trump-massive-new-fiscal-powers-cfa385a1?mod=hp_lead_pos5

 

              Backlash over trade deals with Japan and South Korea.

              https://www.nytimes.com/2025/09/11/business/south-korea-japan-trump-trade.html

 

              How much money has the Trump tariffs raised?

              https://mishtalk.com/economics/how-much-money-have-trumps-tariffs-raised-whats-the-impact/

 

            China

 

              Big money is flowing into China.

  https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2025-09-11/china-s-4-5-trillion-flows-mark-potential-new-era-for-the-global-economy?srnd=homepage-americas&sref=loFkkPMQ

 

 

     Investing

 

            Stay cautious.

            https://www.advisorperspectives.com/commentaries/2025/09/11/allocation-views

 

            Dollar bears believe the slide will continue.

            https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/us-dollar-bears-think-record-slide-may-resume-after-recent-pause-2025-09-11/

 

            Ray Dalio suggests gold as a shield.

            https://www.reuters.com/business/ray-dalio-suggests-gold-shield-us-markets-risk-heart-attack-2025-09-11/

 

            Truth not included.

            https://tonyisola.com/2025/09/truth-not-included/

 

            Bitcoin’s backdoor slammed shut.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/blocked-bitcoins-back-door-slammed-shut

 

            The yield curve has never steepened like this before.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/yield-curve-has-never-steepened

 

            Near term risks.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/record-prices-and-near-term-risks-warrant-least-some-hedging

 

            AI can’t run without silver.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/ai-cant-run-without-silver

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

What I am reading today

 

            The life of Cyrus the Great.

            Was Cyrus the Great really a tolerant conqueror? | National Geographic

 

 

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