The Morning Call
9/18/25
The
Market
Technical
Wednesday in the
charts.
https://www.zerohedge.com/market-recaps/powells-risk-management-cut-wreaks-havoc-across-markets
Wednesday in the technical stats.
https://www.barchart.com/stocks/momentum
https://www.barchart.com/stocks/sectors/rankings
https://www.barchart.com/stocks/signals/new-recommendations
The Russell hits
resistance.
https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/roaring-russell-hits-resistance
The number of NASDAQ
stocks above their 50 DMA is declining.
https://x.com/AndrewThrasher/status/1968309940248043881
S&P support
strengthens; Gold uptrends holds.
https://talkmarkets.com/content/etfs/spx-support-strengthens-gold-uptrend-holds?post=523229
How the stock
market acts during a government shutdown.
https://www.carsongroup.com/insights/blog/lets-talk-about-a-government-shutdown/
Fundamental
Headlines
The
Economy
US
Weekly initial jobless claims totaled 231,000
versus forecasts of 240,000.
The September
Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index came in at 23.2 versus predictions of 8.0.
International
July Japanese machinery orders fell 4.6% versus
estimates of -1.3%.
July EU construction output was up 3.2%
versus projections of +2.1%.
Other
September business cycle indicators.
https://econbrowser.com/archives/2025/09/business-cycle-indicators-at-mid-september
The housing bubble in major US cities.
A short history of median household income.
An in depth
analysis of housing construction and what it means for the economy.
https://bonddad.blogspot.com/2025/09/august-housing-construction-even-more.html
Overnight
News
US government
shutdown risks are rising, with Democrats demanding health care policy changes
that House Speaker Mike Johnson has said have “zero” chance of becoming law.
The US House cleared the procedural hurdle for a floor vote this week on
the stopgap funding measure to avert a government shutdown.
The Trump administration is drawing up plans to use
tariff revenue to fund a program to support US farmers as they head into
harvest facing falling export sales and rising input costs.
China is dropping an antitrust probe into Google, as
Beijing and Washington step up negotiations over TikTok, Nvidia and trade at a
time of heightened tensions between the superpowers.
China rare earth exports jumped to a record level in Aug
as Beijing permits expanded shipments following an easing of tensions with
Washington. BBG
Monetary
Policy
As everyone knows,
the FOMC wrapped up its September meeting yesterday and that was followed by
the Powell presser. It cut the Fed Funds rate by 25 basis points, as expected. The
tone of the Fed statement and Powell’s comments along with the accompanying dot
plot suggested to me an above normal level of uncertainty about the strength of
the economy as well as inflation. While I would have voted for no rate cut, I am
comforted by the level of concern about inflation.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/fomc-29
A more negative
take.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/jerome-powells-fed-enters-nightmare-territory
More Wall Street reactions.
https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/wall-street-reacts-powells-risk-management-rate-cut
The yield curve doesn’t mean what it used to
mean.
Fiscal
Policy
Political cowardice.
https://www.nationalreview.com/corner/political-cowardice-covid-obamacare-credit-edition/
GOP again cedes
tariff power to Trump (again, in my opinion, this is a constitutional issue).
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/09/16/us/politics/republicans-house-tariffs-emergency-trump.html
Investing
The outlook for Q3
dividends.
https://politicalcalculations.blogspot.com/2025/09/the-outlook-for-s-500-dividends-in.html
US IPO activity on
course for best quarter since 2022.
The ‘smart money’ is flashing a warning
signal.
AI trade getting crowded.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/ai-momentum-trade-getting-very-crowded-top-goldman-traders-warn
The debt landscape
has flipped.
https://www.ft.com/content/b2d44ad5-62bc-4dc4-9bbc-90633fa596c6
Gold: overbought, overvalued,
overcrowded.
https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/gold-overbought-overvalued-overcrowded
News on Stocks in Our Portfolios
FactSet Research
Systems press
release (NYSE:FDS): Q4 Non-GAAP EPS of $4.05 misses
by $0.08.
Revenue of
$596.9M (+6.2% Y/Y) beats by $3.46M.
What
I am reading today
The
tyranny of the playbook.
https://investmentecosystem.com/2025/09/17/the-tyranny-of-the-playbook/
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for Survival’s website (http://investingforsurvival.com/home)
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