The Morning Call--It is highly unusual for stocks, bonds and gold to rally at the same time

 

The Morning Call

 

9/11/25

 

The Market

         

    Technical

 

            Wednesday in the charts.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/market-recaps/bonds-bitcoin-bullion-bid-cool-ppi-larry-tops-elon-worlds-richest-man

 

Note: the S&P closed above its previous all-time high. That is clearly a positive. Having said that under my time and space rule, it needs to remain above that level through the close on Monday to confirm a breakout. You should also note that the DJIA was down on the day.

 

            Wednesday in the technical stats.

            https://www.barchart.com/stocks/momentum

            https://www.barchart.com/stocks/sectors/rankings

            https://www.barchart.com/stocks/sectors/rankings

 

            The dollar is on the brink of a major move.

            https://www.advisorperspectives.com/commentaries/2025/09/10/dollar-on-brink-major-move

 

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

 

                          Weekly initial jobless claims totaled 263,000 versus forecasts of 235,000.

 

August CPI came in at +0.4% versus predictions of +0.3%; core CPI was +0.3%, in line.

 

                        International

 

                        Other

 

                          Fitch nudges up global growth forecast for 2025.

                          https://www.wsj.com/economy/fitch-ratings-nudges-up-global-growth-outlook-for-2025-1e613ee8?mod=economy_lead_pos3

 

                          A closer look at yesterday’s PPI number.

                          https://bonddad.blogspot.com/2025/09/august-producer-prices-largely.html

            Overnight News

 

G7 sovereign debt levels becoming a growing concern for investors as yields creep higher on back of extreme fiscal imbalances, political instability, and elevated inflation, with a particular focus on France, the UK, the US, and Japan.

 

China is preparing to tackle a backlog of unpaid local government bills to the private sector, people familiar said, with some estimates putting the arrears at more than $1 trillion.

 

Monetary Policy

 

              ECB leaves rate unchanged.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/ecb-keeps-rates-unchanged-expected-euro-drops-after-2027-inflation-forecast-trimmed

                         

 

            Fiscal Policy

 

              The libertarians were right.

              https://x.com/adamnmichel/status/1965470032286417317

 

            Tariffs

 

              The case for Trump’s tariffs.

              https://www.americanthinker.com/articles/2025/09/the_coming_supreme_court_decision_on_trump_s_tariffs.html

 

              Trump’s childish challenge to China.

              https://mishtalk.com/economics/trump-resorts-to-childish-i-will-if-you-will-tactics-to-challenge-china/

 

            China

 

              China’s deflationary woes continue unabated.

              https://www.wsj.com/economy/chinas-deflationary-woes-continue-unabated-fd725f0e?mod=economy_lead_pos1

 

     Investing

 

            It is highly unusual for stocks, bonds and gold to be rallying at the same time.

            https://www.marketwatch.com/story/investors-are-exuberant-about-stocks-bonds-and-gold-and-thats-not-necessarily-good-a0de3fa9?st=4Cp13p

 

            Time to prepare for stagflation?

            https://www.wellington.com/en/insights/is-it-time-to-prepare-for-stagflation

 

            There is no Alpha left in public markets.

            https://www.apolloacademy.com/no-alpha-left-in-public-markets/

 

            Is the equity market losing steam?

            https://www.advisorperspectives.com/commentaries/2025/09/10/is-equity-market-losing-steam

 

            The impact of stock repurchases is fading.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/despite-record-buybacks-impact-stock-repurchases-fading

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

Kroger press release (NYSE:KR): Q2 Non-GAAP EPS of $1.04 beats by $0.04.

Revenue of $33.94B (+0.1% Y/Y) misses by $210M.

 

What I am reading today

 

            The defense against slop and brain rot.

            https://pauljun.substack.com/p/anti-slop-and-anti-brainrot

 

 

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