The Morning Call---The moment of truth for Trump

 

The Morning Call

 

9/5/25

 

The Market

         

    Technical

 

            Thursday in the charts.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/market-recaps/bonds-stocks-bid-ahead-payrolls-palooza

 

            Thursday in the technical stats.

            https://www.barchart.com/stocks/momentum

            https://www.barchart.com/stocks/sectors/rankings

            https://www.barchart.com/stocks/signals/new-recommendations

 

            The latest from Citadel’s trading desk.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/downside-hedges-are-especially-prudent-citadel-flows-guru-sees-september-shift-after-summer

 

            The latest from Goldman’s trading desk.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/favorable-market-winds-summer-are-now-shifting-goldmans-hedge-fund-honcho-sees-worsening

 

            Pay attention to the long bond equivalent of the VIX.

            https://vixology.substack.com/p/you-gotta-move

 

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

 

The August services PMI came in at 54.5 versus estimates of 55.4; the August composite PMI was 54.6 versus 55.4.

                          https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2025/09/04/sp-global-services-pmi-august-2025

 

                          The August ISM services PMI was 52.0 versus expectations of 50.7.

                          https://bonddad.blogspot.com/2025/09/economically-weighted-ism-headline-and.html

 

August nonfarm payrolls increased 22,000 versus forecasts of +75,000; the unemployment rate was 4.3% versus 4.2%; average hourly earnings were up 0.3%, in line.

                                  https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/us-job-growth-collapses-just-22k-unemployment-rate-rises-43-putting-50bps-rate-cut-play

 

                        International

 

                          Q2 EU GDP growth was 0.1%, in line.

 

July Japanese household spending rose 1.7% versus predictions of +1.4%; the July leading economic indicators were reported at 105.9 versus 106.0.

 

July German factory orders fell 2.9% versus consensus of +1.5%.

 

July UK retail sales were up 0.6% versus projections of +0.3%; ex fuel, they were up 0.5% versus +0.3%.

 

                        Other

 

                          Charts on the financial system.

                          https://econbrowser.com/archives/2025/09/the-financial-system-some-graphs

 

                          Latest Q3 GDP nowcast.

                          https://www.capitalspectator.com/softer-us-economic-growth-expected-for-q3-gdp-report/

 

                          Asking rents mostly unchanged YoY.

                          https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2025/09/asking-rents-mostly-unchanged-year-over.html

 

                          YoY small business employment growth barely above zero.

                          https://mishtalk.com/economics/year-over-year-small-business-employment-growth-barely-above-zero/

 

            Overnight News

 

Trump signed an order implementing the US-Japan trade deal, imposing a 15% tariff on most imports. The pact requires Japan to set up a $550 billion US investment fund or risk higher levies.

 

At a White House dinner, Silicon Valley leaders including Mark Zuckerberg pledged to increase AI spending. Trump said he would soon impose tariffs on chip imports but exempt goods from companies such as Apple that are expanding their US investments.

 

Congressional leaders begin formulating a short-term deal to avoid a gov’t shutdown on 10/1, but the two sides still have a lot to work through in the coming weeks.

 

            Monetary Policy

 

              Trump and the Federal Reserve’s independence.

              https://www.wsj.com/opinion/trump-lisa-cook-and-the-federal-reserves-independence-657623a9?mod=opinion_lead_pos5

 

              Liquidity is starting to be drained from the financial system.

  https://wolfstreet.com/2025/09/03/on-rrps-drop-to-near-zero-17-9-billion-liquidity-flow-into-markets-is-over-while-tga-refilling-still-drains-liquidity-from-markets/

 

 

            Fiscal Policy

 

              The moment of truth for Trump.

              https://www.nytimes.com/2025/09/03/opinion/trump-congress-term-president.html

 

              When the government dabbles, freedom wobbles.

              https://www.realclearmarkets.com/articles/2025/09/04/when_the_government_dabbles_freedom_wobbles_1132661.html

 

              Counterpoint.

              https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2025-09-04/a-sovereign-wealth-fund-for-the-us-is-a-great-idea-actually?srnd=homepage-americas&sref=loFkkPMQ

 

            Tariffs

 

              Putting tariffs on a stronger legal footing.

  https://theweek.com/politics/trump-tariffs-stronger-legal-footing?refid=75FFC898AD6883CBB120FC6A86C62323&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=afternoon_newsletter_20250903&utm_source=afternoon_newsletter

                       

 

            Geopolitics

 

This is an absolutely ‘must read’ article. Its thesis is that the recent China/Russia/India summit represents a major change in the world order---from Western institutional dominance to a multipolar world. Whether or not that will ultimately occur, Trump and the US neocon community will hopefully pay attention.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/rise-multipolar-world-order-west-just-watched-world-shift-tianjin

 

     Investing

 

            Can the gold rush continue?

            https://www.morningstar.com/alternative-investments/warning-signs-gold-rush

 

            Goldman Sachs: gold could hit $5,000/oz. if Trump undermines Fed.

            https://www.ft.com/content/e7b5f1ae-9060-4a24-a818-da93f264572f

 

            Goldman trader says bitcoin is the leading debasement trade.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/entering-era-fiscal-dominance-top-goldman-trader-says-bitcoin-lead-debasement-trade

 

            Over one million bitcoin held by public companies.

            https://www.theblock.co/post/369495/bitcoin-held-by-public-companies-passes-1-million-btc-amid-assets-rising-popularity

 

August dividends by the numbers.

            https://politicalcalculations.blogspot.com/2025/09/dividends-by-numbers-in-august-2025.html

 

            Share buybacks are full steam ahead.

            https://www.advisorperspectives.com/commentaries/2025/09/04/share-buybacks-steam-ahead

 

            The stage is set for higher borrowing costs.

            https://talkmarkets.com/content/bonds/a-great-unease-is-sweeping-through-the-government-bond-markets?post=520069

 

           

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

What I am reading today

 

           

 

 

Visit Investing for Survival’s website (http://investingforsurvival.com/home) to learn more about our Investment Strategy, Prices Disciplines and Subscriber Service.