The Morning Call--the pain trade remains higher.

 

The Morning Call

 

9/23/25

 

The Market

         

    Technical

 

            Monday in the charts.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/market-recaps/gold-surges-new-record-highs-bitcoin-dips-big-tech-rips

 

                Monday in the technical stats.

            https://www.barchart.com/stocks/momentum

            https://www.barchart.com/stocks/sectors/rankings

            https://www.barchart.com/stocks/signals/new-recommendations

 

            The weakest week of the weakest month.

            https://talkmarkets.com/content/us-markets/the-weakest-week-of-the-weakest-month-is-here?post=524137

 

            Goldman: the pain trade remains higher.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/near-term-pain-trade-remains-higher-here-goldmans-flows-gurus

 

            Nobody is hedged for gold panic.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/nobodys-hedged-real-gold-panic

 

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

 

Month to date retail chain store sales were up 5.7% compared to 6.3% in   the prior week.

 

The August Chicago national activity index came in at -.12 versus forecasts of -.17.

https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2025/09/22/chicago-fed-national-activity-index-cfnai-economic-growth-increased-august-2025

 

                        International

 

The September German flash manufacturing PMI was 48.5 versus predictions of 50.0; the flash services PMI was 52.5 versus 49.9; the flash composite PMI was 52.4 versus 50.1; the September EU flash manufacturing PMI was 49.5 versus 50.9; the flash services PMI was 51.4 versus 50.9; the flash composite PMI was 51.2 versus 50.9; the September UK flash manufacturing PMI was 46.2 versus 47.5; the flash services PMI was 51.9 versus 53.8; the flash composite PMI was 51.0 versus 52.9.

 

The September UK industrial trends orders index was -27 versus consensus -30.

 

The September EU flash consumer confidence index was -14.9 versus expectations of -15.6.

 

                        Other

 

                          The trends in median and mean household income.

                          https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2025/09/19/household-incomes-the-decline-of-the-middle-class-2024-update

                                               

                                                  The narrowness of consumer consumption.

                              https://bonddad.blogspot.com/2025/09/weekly-indicators-for-september-15-19.html

 

            Fiscal Policy

 

              Trump’s $100,000 mistake.

              https://www.hindustantimes.com/india-news/the-us-100-000-mistake-that-hands-india-the-future-101758344867335.html

 

              But is it a mistake or a bargaining chip?

              https://www.zerohedge.com/political/real-reason-trump-hit-tech-100000-h1b-fee

 

              A government shutdown looms.

              https://mishtalk.com/economics/government-shutdown-looms-neither-party-ever-learns-they-always-blow-up/

 

              The Democrat’s price for keeping the government open.

              https://nypost.com/2025/09/19/opinion/democrats-1-5-trillion-demand-to-keep-the-govt-open-sets-a-new-record-for-gall/

 

              Bad policies breed bad policies.

              https://www.cato.org/blog/bad-policies-breed-bad-policies

 

              Impact of a government shutdown.

              https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2025/09/a-few-comments-on-possible-government.html

 

            Inflation

 

This analyst opines that inflation is the lesser of two evils---to which I respond, which is worse rising inflation for 340 million Americans or a 4% unemployment rate for 7 million Americans.

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2025-09-22/inflation-is-the-lesser-evil-compared-with-unemployment?srnd=homepage-americas&sref=loFkkPMQ

 

              Plus, CPI is actually worse than the numbers suggest.

              https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-09-22/inflation-is-worse-than-the-cpi-shows-says-ex-us-comptroller?srnd=homepage-americas&sref=loFkkPMQ

 

            Tariffs

 

              The amount of tariff revenue being collected is significant.

              https://www.apolloacademy.com/significant-amounts-of-tariff-revenue-collected-at-the-moment/

 

     Investing

 

            The bond market gets edgy.

            https://wolfstreet.com/2025/09/21/longer-term-treasury-yields-mortgage-rates-jump-after-rate-cut-yield-curve-steepens-bond-market-gets-edgy/

 

            The stock market is masking deep anxiety.

            https://www.ft.com/content/ac9e7ee1-ebe5-431a-a315-b833de728ec9

 

            Counterpoint: markets move first.

            https://chartkidmatt.com/p/markets-move-first

 

            The rules have changed.

            https://www.advisorperspectives.com/commentaries/2025/09/22/rules-changed

 

            Cryptocurrencies sink.

            https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-09-22/cryptocurrencies-sink-as-1-5-billion-in-bullish-bets-wiped-out?srnd=homepage-americas&sref=loFkkPMQ

 

            The latest from Goldman.

            https://www.reuters.com/sustainability/boards-policy-regulation/hedge-flow-hedge-funds-pile-into-banks-insurance-consumer-finance-goldman-sachs-2025-09-22/

 

            Don’t forget about geopolitical shocks.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/markets-are-complacent-about-geopolitical-shocks

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

 

 

What I am reading today

 

           

 

 

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