The Morning Call--Searching for the bull's end.

 

The Morning Call

 

9/25/25

 

The Market

         

    Technical

 

            Wednesday in the charts.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/market-recaps/bitcoin-black-gold-bid-big-tech-buckles-goldman-warns-dynamics-feel-stretched

 

                        Wednesday in the technical stats.

            https://www.barchart.com/stocks/momentum

            https://www.barchart.com/stocks/sectors/rankings

            https://www.barchart.com/stocks/signals/new-recommendations

 

            The latest from Goldman’s desk.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/goldman-trader-signs-last-week-was-top-and-week-roll-over

 

            Gold surges.

            https://talkmarkets.com/content/commodities/gold-surges-on-dovish-fed-signals-and-global-tensions-targets-4200-breakout?post=524576

 

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

 

Weekly initial jobless claims totaled 218,000 versus consensus of 240,000.

                          https://www.zerohedge.com/personal-finance/initial-jobless-claims-tumble-back-near-ytd-lows

 

Final Q2 GDP growth was +3.8% versus projections of +3.3%; real consumer spending was +2.5% versus +1.6%; corporate profits were up 0.2% versus +2.0%; core PCE was +2.6% versus +2.5%.

 

                          August new home sales were up 20.5% versus forecasts of -1.8%.

                          https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2025/09/24/new-home-sales-surge-to-3-5-year-high-in-august

 

But according to this analyst, (1) this number is very volatile and (2) the last pre-recession metrics are firmly negative.

                              https://bonddad.blogspot.com/2025/09/new-home-sales-despite-noisy-sharp.html

 

                                                  August durable goods orders rose 2.9% versus predictions of -0.7%.                                                             https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/durable-goods-orders-rebound-bigly-august

 

                        International

 

The October German consumer confidence index was reported at -22.3 versus estimates of -23.

 

                        Other

 

                          Update on Q3 nowcasts.

                          US Q3 GDP Nowcasts Indicate Solid Growth After Fed Rate Cut | The Capital Spectator

 

            Fiscal Policy

 

              Howard Lutnick, US Steel CEO

              https://www.wsj.com/opinion/nippon-steel-u-s-government-howard-lutnick-dave-burritt-granite-city-57231f28?mod=opinion_lead_pos3

 

              A path to debt relief?

              https://www.advisorperspectives.com/commentaries/2025/09/24/data-centers-power-grid-path-debt-relief

 

            The Financial System

 

              Debt investors raise alarm over lending standards.

              https://www.ft.com/content/cdb5ad3e-1c11-48af-9852-00ccc147abbf

 

     Investing

 

            Searching for the bull’s end.

            https://www.realclearmarkets.com/articles/2025/09/24/searching_for_the_bulls_end_dont_chase_false_alarms_1136625.html

 

            The reason to own dividend paying stocks.

            https://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2025/09/the-lichenstein-solution.php

 

            The latest from Franklin Templeton.

            https://www.advisorperspectives.com/commentaries/2025/09/24/from-market-desk-rise-small-caps

 

            The S&P is not the new risk free rate.

            https://www.ft.com/content/ace06a73-36bf-4717-92b4-d5aa0dc42f8b

 

            You can quantify risk only so much.

            https://www.permanentequity.com/unqualified-opinions-roll/the-riskiest-places-on-earth

 

            Tipping point. Ritholtz is no fan of Trump; but he makes a good point.

            https://ritholtz.com/2025/09/tipping-point/

 

            Gold can remain solvent longer than you can remain rational.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/precious-metals/gold-can-remain-solvent-longer-you-can-stay-rational

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

 

 

What I am reading today

 

           

 

 

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