The Morning Call---First do no harm

                                             The Morning Call

 

9/24/25

 

The Market

         

    Technical

 

            Tuesday in the charts.

                https://www.zerohedge.com/market-recaps/oil-gold-pop-stocks-drop-powell-signals-no-hire-no-fire-economy

 

            Tuesday in the technical stats.

            https://www.barchart.com/stocks/momentum

            https://www.barchart.com/stocks/sectors/rankings

            https://www.barchart.com/stocks/signals/new-recommendations

 

            Near term support and resistance levels for gold.

            https://talkmarkets.com/content/commodities/technical-analysis-gold-tuesday-sep-23?post=524342

 

            More on gold.

            https://talkmarkets.com/content/commodities/gold-eyes-3800-as-fed-caution-and-global-risks-drive-flows?post=524349

 

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

 

Weekly mortgage applications were up 0.6% while purchase applications were up 1.0%.

 

August building permits fell 2.3% versus expectations of -3.7%.

 

The September Richmond Fed manufacturing index was reported at -17 versus estimates of -10.

https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2025/09/23/richmond-fed-manufacturing-activity-softened-further-september-2025

 

The September flash manufacturing PMI was 52.0, in line; the flash services PMI was 53.9 versus 53.0; the flash composite PMI was 53.6 versus 54.1.

 

                        International

 

The September German business climate index came in at 87.7 versus consensus of 89.2; the September current conditions index was 85.7 versus 86.5.

 

                        Other

 

            Monetary Policy

 

              First, do no harm.

              https://alhambrapartners.com/the-economic-hippocratic-oath/?src=news

 

              Will the real Stephen Miran please stand up?

              https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2025-09-23/miran-contradicts-himself-on-the-case-for-big-fed-rate-cuts?srnd=homepage-americas

 

              Powell’s remarks yesterday---nothing new.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/watch-live-fed-chair-powell-discusses-state-economy

 

            Fiscal Policy

 

This author is positing that the huge national debt is not a problem because markets know that the growth of tax revenues will be just as big as the growth in the deficit. I am not sure that I buy the argument; but here it is.

https://www.realclearmarkets.com/articles/2025/09/23/37_trillion_debt_vivifies_the_perils_of_budgetary_balance_1136078.html

 

              Eliminating fraud will save money but it won’t fix the budget.

              https://www.marketwatch.com/story/social-securitys-dead-people-and-medicares-fraudsters-real-but-stopping-them-wont-save-the-budget-ed7c89b0?st=VTYGHb

 

                          Trump’s try at a planned economy is socialism.

              https://thehill.com/opinion/5512143-marxism-trumpism-trumps-try-at-a-planned-economy-is-still-socialism/

           

Recession

 

              US recession risk is still low.

              https://www.capitalspectator.com/us-recession-risk-is-still-low-will-it-last/

 

              The consumer nowcast is positive---but just barely.

              https://bonddad.blogspot.com/2025/09/the-state-of-consumer-nowcast-recession.html

 

     Investing

 

            What seven key indicators are saying about the market.

            https://www.morningstar.com/markets/what-7-key-indicators-are-saying-about-market

 

            World’s largest ethereum holder announces offering, i.e., it plans to buy more.

                        https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/worlds-largest-ethereum-treasury-holds-over-2-eth-supply-announces-365mm-offering

 

            Stay long but stay hedged.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/you-can-stay-invested-ai-induced-euphoria-nomura-warns-you-cannot-take-your-hedges-now

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

 

 

What I am reading today

 

            Was the Garden of Eden a real place?

            Was the Garden of Eden real? Here’s what archaeologists think. | National Geographic

 

 

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