The Morning Call---Why the Market keeps going up in the face of high valuations

 

The Morning Call

 

9/16/25

 

The Market

         

    Technical

 

            Monday in the charts.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/market-recaps/gold-soars-new-record-high-ahead-fed-bonds-stocks-bid

 

                Monday in the technical stats.

            https://www.barchart.com/stocks/momentum

            https://www.barchart.com/stocks/sectors/rankings

            https://www.barchart.com/stocks/signals/new-recommendations

 

            Markets continue to signal risk-on.

            https://www.capitalspectator.com/markets-continue-to-signal-risk-on-for-global-strategies/

 

            The latest from Goldman’s trading desk.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/flows-fundamentals-positioning-perception-top-goldman-macro-trader-says-technical-remain

 

            Central banks like gold more than Treasuries.

            https://mrzepczynski.blogspot.com/2025/09/central-banks-like-gold-more-than.html

 

            The case for owning gold.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/precious-metals/dollar-debates-golds-winning-end-game

 

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

 

                          Month to date retail chain store sales grew slower than in the prior week.

 

August retail sales were up 0.6% versus consensus of +0.4%; ex autos, they were up 0.7% versus 0.0%.

 

                        International

 

The July UK unemployment rate was 4.7%, in line; July average earnings were up 4.7% versus +4.5%.

 

July EU industrial production rose 0.3% versus predictions of +0.5%; the September economic sentiment index was 26.1 versus 24.0.

 

The September German economic sentiment index was 37.3 versus forecasts of 26.0; the September current conditions index was -76.4 versus -71.0.

 

                        Other

 

                          Employment growth is dead in the water.

                          https://talkmarkets.com/content/employment-growth-is-dead-in-the-water?post=522885

 

                          The Fed model was wrong about the economy.

                          https://talkmarkets.com/content/economics--politics/the-fed-models-were-wrong-about-the-us-economy?post=522830

 

            Monetary Policy

 

              Take away the punchbowl.

              https://www.advisorperspectives.com/commentaries/2025/09/15/punchbowls-modern-day

 

            Fiscal Policy

 

              Trump thinks that the Fed can overcome bad policy.

              https://www.forbes.com/sites/johntamny/2025/09/14/as-milton-friedman-once-did-trump-thinks-the-fed-can-beat-bad-policy/

 

              Explaining and fixing the Hyundai immigration debacle.

              https://www.foxnews.com/opinion/5-things-explain-hyundai-immigration-debacle

 

              From draining the swamp to owning Intel.

              https://thedailyeconomy.org/article/from-draining-the-swamp-to-owning-intel-how-the-right-became-what-it-feared/

 

            Inflation

 

              The case for slowing inflation.

              https://scottgrannis.blogspot.com/2025/09/inflation-is-not-virus-and-its-not.html

 

            Recession

 

              Update on RecessionAlert weekly leading economic index.

              https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2025/09/15/recession-weekly-leading-economic-index

 

            Geopolitics

 

              Trump’s miscalculation on sanctions.

              https://mishtalk.com/economics/trumps-big-miscalculation-on-sanctions-in-a-dollar-based-transaction-world/

 

     Investing

 

            Charts to consider as the stock market rallies.

            https://www.tker.co/p/stock-market-macro-charts-sept-2025

 

            This bull market is younger than you think.

            https://www.carsongroup.com/insights/blog/how-old-is-this-bull-market-younger-than-you-think/

 

            Why the Market keeps going up in face of high valuations.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/explaining-great-market-paradox

 

            Americans grow their huge pile of interest bearing cash.

                        https://wolfstreet.com/2025/09/12/money-market-funds-cds-americans-grow-their-huge-piles-of-interest-earning-cash-further-despite-lower-yields/

  

            Exploring five different investment strategies.

            https://talkmarkets.com/content/stocks--equities/invest-or-index--exploring-5-different-strategies?post=522845

 

            You will never consistently get the timing right.

            https://www.optimisticallie.com/p/why-you-should-invest-right-now

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT) declares $0.91/share quarterly dividend, 9.6% increase from prior dividend of $0.83.

 

What I am reading today

 

            How Benjamin Franklin saved the American revolution.

            https://www.wsj.com/politics/policy/ben-franklin-us-history-diplomacy-67583a0f?mod=panda_wsj_author_alert

 

 

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