The Morning Call
9/3/25
The
Market
Technical
Tuesday in the
charts.
More charts.
https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/spx-breaks-down-nvda-cracks-170
Tuesday in the technical stats.
https://www.barchart.com/stocks/momentum
https://www.barchart.com/stocks/sectors/rankings
Trouble in the bond markets.
https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/contagion-live-jgb-explosion-fuels-volatility-gold-surge
Gold clears major
technical barrier.
The latest from
Goldman’s trading desk.
Fundamental
Headlines
The
Economy
US
Weekly mortgage applications
dropped 1.2% while purchase applications were up 0.9%.
July construction spending fell 0.1% versus
forecasts of +0.1%.
https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2025/09/construction-spending-decreased-01-in.html
The August manufacturing PMI came in at 53.0
versus projections of 53.3.
The August ISM manufacturing PMI was 48.7
versus estimates of 48.2.
The September economic
optimism index was 48.7 versus expectations of 51.0.
International
The August Chinese
services PMI was 53.0 versus consensus of 52.4; the August composite PMI was
51.9 versus 51.2; the August German services PMI was 49.3 versus 50.1; the
August composite PMI was 50.5 versus 50.7; the August EU services PMI was 50.5
versus 50.7; the August composite PMI was 51.0 versus 51.1; the August UK services
PMI was 54.2 versus 53.0; the August composite PMI was 53.5 versus 53.0.
Other
The price of
energy as an economic indicator.
https://www.advisorperspectives.com/commentaries/2025/09/02/energy-price-economic-indicator
Stablecoins will force finance to modernize.
https://www.ft.com/content/72aa6431-366b-4409-b3ce-9a99d661473d
Overnight
News
American companies
are once again beating profit expectations, but this time around they aren’t
banking on blockbuster consumer spending to make it happen. Instead, the latest
batch of quarterly earnings are getting a lift from managers who are squeezing
out costs, boosting productivity and turning to new technologies.
US admin officials
reportedly want to fund federal agencies until the first quarter of 2026:
"This would avoid repeated shutdown deadline dramas. Yet it also opens the
door to a year-long continuing resolution”
Holiday spending
by US consumers is set to tumble 5.3% Y/Y, the steepest decline since the
pandemic.
The September rise
in long-end yields is partly driven by heavy corporate issuance, Pimco said.
Natixis warned that a rate cut amid high inflation risks steepening the curve.
Monetary
Policy
The Fed has an inflation problem.
Fiscal
Policy
GOP planning a second big tax and spending bill.
National
housing emergency is on deck.
Inflation
Another inflation mountain?
https://www.apolloacademy.com/will-we-see-a-repeat-of-2021-and-the-1970s/
Instantaneous core inflation.
https://econbrowser.com/archives/2025/09/instantaneous-core-inflation-rising
Recession
Office delinquency rates spike.
Tariffs
The Appeals Court reasoning in the Trump
tariff ruling.
It is not over until the fat lady sings.
Geopolitics
EU accelerating towards collapse.
Investing
Update on valuations.
https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2025/09/02/p-e10-and-market-valuation-august-2025
https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2025/09/02/qratio-market-valuation-august-2025
All twisted up in
the game.
Investors can’t
seem to get enough gold.
Ray
Dalio on gold.
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in the face of the AI hype.
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