Wednesday, September 3, 2025

The Morning Call--Update on valuations

 

The Morning Call

 

9/3/25

 

The Market

         

    Technical

 

            Tuesday in the charts.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/market-recaps/bullion-bitcoin-black-gold-bid-back-school-batters-bonds-big-tech-stocks

 

                More charts.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/spx-breaks-down-nvda-cracks-170

 

                Tuesday in the technical stats.

            https://www.barchart.com/stocks/momentum

            https://www.barchart.com/stocks/sectors/rankings

 

            Trouble in the bond markets.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/contagion-live-jgb-explosion-fuels-volatility-gold-surge

 

            Gold clears major technical barrier.

            https://talkmarkets.com/content/commodities/gold-clears-major-technical-barrier-as-markets-bet-on-fed-policy-easing?post=519670

 

            The latest from Goldman’s trading desk.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/what-goldmans-top-traders-think-about-market-we-enter-september-selloff

 

   Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

 

Weekly mortgage applications dropped 1.2% while purchase applications were up 0.9%.

 

                          July construction spending fell 0.1% versus forecasts of +0.1%.

                                  https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2025/09/construction-spending-decreased-01-in.html

 

                          The August manufacturing PMI came in at 53.0 versus projections of 53.3.

                          https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2025/09/02/sp-global-manufacturing-pmi-august-2025

 

                          The August ISM manufacturing PMI was 48.7 versus estimates of 48.2.

                          https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2025/09/02/ism-manufacturing-pmi-contracts-august-2025

 

The September economic optimism index was 48.7 versus expectations of 51.0.

 

                        International

 

The August Chinese services PMI was 53.0 versus consensus of 52.4; the August composite PMI was 51.9 versus 51.2; the August German services PMI was 49.3 versus 50.1; the August composite PMI was 50.5 versus 50.7; the August EU services PMI was 50.5 versus 50.7; the August composite PMI was 51.0 versus 51.1; the August UK services PMI was 54.2 versus 53.0; the August composite PMI was 53.5 versus 53.0.        

 

                        Other

 

                          The price of energy as an economic indicator.

                          https://www.advisorperspectives.com/commentaries/2025/09/02/energy-price-economic-indicator

 

                          Stablecoins will force finance to modernize.

                          https://www.ft.com/content/72aa6431-366b-4409-b3ce-9a99d661473d

           

            Overnight News

 

American companies are once again beating profit expectations, but this time around they aren’t banking on blockbuster consumer spending to make it happen. Instead, the latest batch of quarterly earnings are getting a lift from managers who are squeezing out costs, boosting productivity and turning to new technologies.

 

US admin officials reportedly want to fund federal agencies until the first quarter of 2026: "This would avoid repeated shutdown deadline dramas. Yet it also opens the door to a year-long continuing resolution”

 

Holiday spending by US consumers is set to tumble 5.3% Y/Y, the steepest decline since the pandemic.

 

The September rise in long-end yields is partly driven by heavy corporate issuance, Pimco said. Natixis warned that a rate cut amid high inflation risks steepening the curve.

 

            Monetary Policy

 

              The Fed has an inflation problem.

              https://www.carsongroup.com/insights/blog/the-fed-has-an-inflation-problem-but-theyre-going-to-cut-thats-bullish/

 

            Fiscal Policy

 

              GOP planning a second big tax and spending bill.

  https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-09-02/gop-faces-headwinds-on-push-for-second-big-tax-and-spending-bill?srnd=homepage-americas&sref=loFkkPMQ

 

                          National housing emergency is on deck.

              https://mishtalk.com/economics/a-national-housing-emergency-declaration-is-on-deck-to-tackle-soaring-costs/

 

            Inflation

 

              Another inflation mountain?

              https://www.apolloacademy.com/will-we-see-a-repeat-of-2021-and-the-1970s/

 

              Instantaneous core inflation.

              https://econbrowser.com/archives/2025/09/instantaneous-core-inflation-rising

 

            Recession

 

              Office delinquency rates spike.

  https://wolfstreet.com/2025/09/01/office-cmbs-delinquency-rate-spikes-to-record-11-7-much-worse-than-financial-crisis-peak-multifamily-delinquencies-also-spike/

 

 

            Tariffs

 

              The Appeals Court reasoning in the Trump tariff ruling.

              https://reason.com/2025/09/01/the-federal-circuits-tariff-ruling-highlights-the-audacity-of-trumps-power-grab/

 

              It is not over until the fat lady sings.

              https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2025/09/trumps-appellate-court-tariff-loss-it-isnt-over-until-the-fat-lady-sings.html

 

            Geopolitics

 

              EU accelerating towards collapse.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/eu-accelerating-toward-collapse-merz-draghi-and-lagarde-reveal-europes-crisis-path

 

     Investing

 

            Update on valuations.

            https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2025/09/02/market-valuation-is-the-market-still-overvalued

            https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2025/09/02/p-e10-and-market-valuation-august-2025

                https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2025/09/02/regression-to-trend-s-p-composite-187-above-trend-in-august

                https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2025/09/02/qratio-market-valuation-august-2025

               

            All twisted up in the game.

https://smeadcap.com/missives/sp-500-index-all-twisted-up-in-the-game/?utm_campaign=Missives&utm_medium=email&_hsenc=p2ANqtz-83Th3pMPCpEKP9vY7OmeMMP6gi6UjtsVuZgosFaDzB8wtbvzAfV-yWSKBsh4_2NU3ytpd04NkJcAe2HFb-_lazrFzRQWqYHBk78bOsF2Kyp2mycNk&_hsmi=377846447&utm_content=377830783&utm_source=hs_email

 

            Investors can’t seem to get enough gold.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-09-02/gold-price-record-why-bullion-is-safe-haven-amid-tariffs-inflation?srnd=homepage-americas&sref=loFkkPMQ

 

            Ray Dalio on gold.

                        https://www.zerohedge.com/precious-metals/gold-hits-new-record-high-dalio-fears-trump-stoking-imminent-debt-induced-heart

 

            Stay diversified in the face of the AI hype.

            https://behaviouralinvestment.com/2025/09/02/ai-hype-will-encourage-investors-to-do-precisely-the-wrong-thing/

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

 

 

What I am reading today

 

           

 

 

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