The Morning Call---Extreme concentration in the S&P

 

The Morning Call

 

9/9/25

 

The Market

         

    Technical

 

            Monday in the charts.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/market-recaps/gold-surges-new-record-high-big-tech-bitcoin-pumpndump

 

                Monday in the technical stats.

            https://www.barchart.com/stocks/momentum

            https://www.barchart.com/stocks/sectors/rankings

            https://www.barchart.com/stocks/signals/new-recommendations

 

            What happens next?

            https://talkmarkets.com/content/stocks--equities/major-us-equity-indices-sitting-on-tons-of-gains-post-april-lows?post=521007

 

            Gold goes parabolic.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/gold-goes-parabolic-feds-credibility-burns

 

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

             

The August small business optimism index came in at 100.8 versus forecasts of 100.7.

 

                        International

 

August Japanese YoY machine tool orders were up 8.1% versus projections of up 3.9%.

 

                        Other

 

                          The labor market warning light is flashing red.

                          https://www.carsongroup.com/insights/blog/the-labor-market-is-flashing-a-big-red-sign/

 

                          Update on big four recession indicators.

                          https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2025/09/08/the-big-four-recession-indicators-august-2025-employment

                         

  Lumber crashing.

                          https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/lumberrrr-crash-3-charts-were-watching

 

                Overnight News

 

After two federal courts have found that many of the steep emergency tariffs imposed by Trump are illegal, if the Supreme Court rules that Trump did not have the authority to impose the tariffs, the U.S. government could be obligated to refund importers anywhere from $750 billion to $1 trillion, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent warned. This could potentially place upward pressure on yields.

 

            Monetary Policy

 

              The Fed can’t alter reality.

              https://www.forbes.com/sites/johntamny/2025/09/07/the-fed-as-a-source-of-economic-growth-is-a-monstrous-delusion/

 

              The Avignon Federal Reserve.

              https://www.ft.com/content/a6b2dd2e-6bfb-4aea-9d7b-f04f068da704

 

              The Fed’s fiscal irresponsibility.

                          https://wolfstreet.com/2025/09/05/bessent-blasts-the-fed-for-qe-its-perverse-incentives-for-fiscal-irresponsibility-its-wealth-effect-policies-that-widened-clas/

 

              Counterpoint.

              https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2025-09-08/bessent-s-fed-critique-misses-the-big-picture?srnd=homepage-americas&sref=loFkkPMQ

 

              The triple whammy on rates scenario.

              https://wolfstreet.com/2025/09/07/scenario-of-a-triple-whammy-for-long-term-treasury-yields/

 

              Trump’s risky game with the Fed.

                          https://www.wsj.com/opinion/trumps-risky-game-with-the-fed-1d727c53?st=a1QY2A&reflink=desktopwebshare_permalink

 

            Fiscal Policy

 

              So far, MAGA economics is losing.

              https://reason.com/2025/09/05/maga-economics-is-losing/

 

            Recession

 

              Is the economy already in a recession?

              https://econbrowser.com/archives/2025/09/is-the-us-already-in-recession

 

              The wave of layoffs has just begun (21 minute video).

              https://talkmarkets.com/content/economics--politics/the-largest-wave-of-layoffs-since-2020-has-begun?post=521041

 

              Recession watch metrics.

              https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2025/09/recession-watch-metrics.html

 

            Inflation

 

              Why people aren’t happy?

              https://mishtalk.com/economics/actual-vs-predicted-consumer-sentiment-is-a-big-hoot/

 

     Investing

 

            Earnings led meltup?

            Earnings-Led Meltup?

 

            How to think about bitcoin allocations.

            https://www.advisorperspectives.com/commentaries/2025/09/08/how-think-bitcoin-allocations

 

            Bitcoin supply shock.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/crypto/bitcoins-hidden-scarcity-lost-coins-and-silent-supply-shock

 

Diversification is failing in the age of passive investing.

            https://talkmarkets.com/content/stocks--equities/why-diversification-is-failing-in-the-age-of-passive-investing?post=521020

 

            Extreme concentration in S&P.

            https://www.apolloacademy.com/extreme-concentration-in-the-sp-500-3/

 

            Small caps making a comeback.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/mighty-russell-years-pain-now-payback

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

 

What I am reading today

 

           

 

 

Visit Investing for Survival’s website (http://investingforsurvival.com/home) to learn more about our Investment Strategy, Prices Disciplines and Subscriber Service.