Investing for Survival: bitcoin

Wednesday morning setup: US futures are lower following a chipmaker-powered jump in Tuesday’s session, with Nasdaq 100 futures falling by 0.8%, which appears to be more of a retracement to yesterday’s strength than a move tied to oil or de-risking into today’s Tech earnings. Alphabet earnings are coming after the close. As of 7:00am ET, S&P futures are down 0.3% and Nasdaq futures slide 0.6%. In premarket trading, Mag 7 stocks are mixed ahead of key earnings from Alphabet, Tesla and IBM due later in the afternoon. Nvidia is underperforming the group as chipmakers decline; GOOG leads. Defensives and Energy are leading; within Cyclicals Financials are outperforming. Today’s macro focus is wholly on GOOG and the AI trade. Crude is leading the commodity complex with WTI at $88/bbl and Brent above $95/bbl for the fist time in 6 weeks, so far Equities have not been derailed as investors continue to think that Trump pivots back to a deal. In metals, Precious is leading Base; Ags are mixed but net higher. Dollar is indicated a touch lower as bond yields are flat. Looking at the day ahead, it’s a fairly quiet one. But we’ll get the UK CPI print for June, and earnings releases after the US close include Alphabet and Tesla.

Fundamental

Headlines

The Economy

Weekly mortgage applications were up 1.9% while purchase applications were up 6.0%.

Month to date retail chain store sales grew 7.8% versus +8.2% in the prior week.

International

The June UK CPI rose 0.1%, in line; core CPI was up 0.3%, also in line.

Other

Overnight News

US greenlights Saudi nuclear deal.

https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/trump-greenlights-saudi-nuclear-deal-uranium-enrichment-kingdom-possible

Iran

Overnight news:

The US widened the scope of its airstrikes on Iran overnight, as President Donald Trump and officials in Tehran signaled a renewal of peace talks is unlikely in the near-term.

Inflation

Regional Fed reports indicate continued elevated inflation.

https://bonddad.blogspot.com/2026/07/regional-fed-reports-indicate-elevated.html

Tariffs

The impact of politically (versus economic) motivated tariffs on the US economy.

https://www.cato.org/research-briefs-economic-policy/macroeconomic-effects-tariffs-insights-180-years-us-trade-policy

The battle for the future of AI:

Summary.

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/battle-future-ai-open-source-models-101?gift=eyJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiIsInR5cCI6IkpXVCJ9.eyJuaWQiOiIxMTE4NzgzIiwic2VuZGVyVWlkIjoiUUhnc3BaZVVFS2E3RHhXM216eFlKbjhaWEFoMiIsImlhdCI6MTc4NDY2MDUyMywiZXhwIjoxNzg3MjUyNTIzLCJhdWQiOiJ6aC1naWZ0In0.C5jASMJrLei9KnG5Q5ZX_ehcdx7rC2dUUbhDsfGRBfE

Point.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2026/07/20/open-model-ai-is-good-competition-anthropic-openai/

Counterpoint.

https://stratechery.com/2026/whos-afraid-of-chinese-models/

AI’s next breakthrough is looking scary

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2026-07-21/self-improving-ai-models-look-genuinely-scary?accessToken=eyJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiIsInR5cCI6IkpXVCJ9.eyJzb3VyY2UiOiJTdWJzY3JpYmVyR2lmdGVkQXJ0aWNsZSIsImlhdCI6MTc4NDY1Njk1NywiZXhwIjoxNzg1MjYxNzU3LCJhcnRpY2xlSWQiOiJUSUk4Q0tSS1YyVFQwMCIsImJjb25uZWN0SWQiOiJCMzFCNTRDQTI3MTE0NjAxOUQxMURCN0IxRUM4NTE2MyJ9.4u1WVif1-sfwGosG3VfNnxsxR5GCM8p0ffzyY-ZoNd4

And how about this: Open AI admits a model escaped containment.

https://www.zerohedge.com/ai/openai-admits-model-escaped-containment-and-hacked-hugging-face-cheat-test

A generational transfer is taking place.

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/generational-transfer-taking-place-cash-crunch-coming-ai-hyperscalers?gift=eyJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiIsInR5cCI6IkpXVCJ9.eyJuaWQiOiIxMTE4ODY0Iiwic2VuZGVyVWlkIjoiUUhnc3BaZVVFS2E3RHhXM216eFlKbjhaWEFoMiIsImlhdCI6MTc4NDcyNDY0NSwiZXhwIjoxNzg3MzE2NjQ1LCJhdWQiOiJ6aC1naWZ0In0.Ff9IplSBUWlhkTRd9fZmmExGybzKt-V6DQMHcx3zf9E

Investing

Dealing with the unknowns.

https://alhambrapartners.com/weekly-market-pulse-its-always-something/?src=news

Economic momentum flips from blessing to curse for S&P.

https://www.advisorperspectives.com/commentaries/2026/07/21/home-affordability-better-headlines

MedTech sector near lows.

https://talkmarkets.com/article/medtech-sector-is-near-its-lows-what-is-going-on-1784651295

News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

What I am reading today

Home affordability is better than the headlines suggest

https://www.advisorperspectives.com/commentaries/2026/07/21/home-affordability-better-headlines

The failure gap.

https://klementoninvesting.substack.com/p/the-failure-gap

Best World Cup photos.

https://www.theguardian.com/football/ng-interactive/2026/jul/20/world-cup-2026-best-30-photographs-gallery

Visit Investing for Survival’s website (http://investingforsurvival.com/home) to learn more about our Investment Strategy, Prices Disciplines and Subscriber Service.

Tuesday, July 7, 2026

The Morning Call---Misreading the data on margin debt

The Morning Call

7/7/26

The Market

Technical

Monday in the charts.

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/one-bubble-after-another-bitcoin-bid-semis-slip-oil-gold-dip

Summary: After a long weekend - following an ugly week - stocks bounced (in their seasonally normal manner to start July) but early momentum/memory gains faded somewhat. Bitcoin bounced back bigly after early weakness (shrugging off the tech reversal on Trump comments). Bonds and the dollar whipsawed higher then lower to end unch along with oil. Gold down as ETF outflows continue. After Thursday's ugliness post-payrolls, a long weekend of refreshment and patriotism had the buyers stepping back in with big-tech (Nasdaq) leading the way, but all the majors higher with The Dow topping 53k for the first time...

Monday in the technical stats.

https://www.barchart.com/stocks/momentum

https://www.barchart.com/stocks/market-performance

https://www.barchart.com/stocks/sectors/rankings

https://www.barchart.com/stocks/signals/new-recommendations

Misreading the data on margin debt risk.

https://talkmarkets.com/article/margin-debt-risk-the-ratios-that-mislead-investors-1783330812

Bitcoin according to Elliott Wave Theory.

https://talkmarkets.com/article/bitcoin-completes-five-wave-decline-recovery-toward-67k-now-in-focus-1783330078

Tuesday morning setup: Stocks fell as fresh volatility hit chipmakers after blowout earnings from Samsung Electronics were still not good enough (the company missed some buyside estimates) and left investors wanting even more, and sent its stock tumbling as much as 11%, forcing another 20 minute halt of the Kospi. As of 8:00am ET, S&P futures were down 0.2% and Nasdaq futures fall 1%, with chip stocks sliding in premarket trading (both Micron and Sandisk dropped more than 5%), following a tech led selloff in Asia, while SpaceX is joining the index today, potentially leading to positioning adjustments across global tech. European stocks are little changed. Meanwhile, Brent crude futures rise 1.5% and are back above $73 a barrel following another Iran attack on a Qatari LNG ship crossing the Strait of Hormuz near Oman. European natural gas futures are up around 4%. Bonds trade heavy as a result with a decline in Treasuries pushing US 10-year yields up 3 basis points to 4.50%. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index inches higher with modest moves across the G-10 complex. Precious metals fall as does Bitcoin. US economic data calendar includes ADP weekly employment change (8:15am), May trade balance (8:30am) and June New York Fed 1-year inflation expectations (11am).

Fundamental

Headlines

The Economy

Month to date retail chain store sales jumped 11.5% versus +10.5% in the prior week.

The May trade balance was -$77.6 billion versus predictions of -$78.5 billion.

The June final services PMI was reported at 51.2 versus forecasts of 51.4; the June final composite PMI was 51.9 versus 52.2.

https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2026/07/06/sp-global-services-pmi-june-2026

The June ISM services index was 54.0, in line.

https://bonddad.blogspot.com/2026/07/the-economically-weighted-ism-indexes.html

International

May Japanese household spending rose 3.7% versus expectations of +1.4%; May YoY cash earnings were up 3.2% versus 3.4%; the May preliminary leading economic indicators were 116.8 versus 116.9.

May German industrial production was up 0.9% versus estimates of +0.2%.

Other

The latest from my favorite optimist.

http://scottgrannis.blogspot.com/2026/06/interesting-chart-updates.html

The latest on US dollar reserves.

https://econbrowser.com/archives/2026/07/us-dollar-reserves-us-iran-war-1-month

Oil may be down but container rates are up.

https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/hormuz-rearview-asia-us-ocean-container-rates-soar-past-7900

Iran

Overnight news.

https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/qatari-lng-tanker-hit-iranian-missile-hormuz-chokepoint

Monetary Policy

The bond market is telling the Fed to get on with the rate hikes.

https://wolfstreet.com/2026/07/04/six-month-treasury-yield-rises-to-4-bond-market-tells-the-fed-to-get-on-with-the-rate-hikes/

Counterpoint.

https://www.capitalspectator.com/will-markets-start-to-price-in-lower-inflation-risk/#more-25715

AI prices are rising but the payoff is not yet clear.

https://theweek.com/tech/ai-financial-payoffs-prices-inflation?refid=75FFC898AD6883CBB120FC6A86C62323&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=afternoon_newsletter_20260702&utm_source=afternoon_newsletter

The next AI risk isn’t technology, it’s politics.

https://www.realclearmarkets.com/articles/2026/07/06/the_next_ai_risk_isnt_technology_its_politics_1192142.html

The end of being drunk on AI?

https://mrzepczynski.blogspot.com/2026/07/the-end-of-being-drunk-on-ai.html

Investing

The growth in crypto.

https://www.realclearmarkets.com/articles/2026/07/06/dont_call_67_million_americans_a_fringe_1192530.html

Expected Market sector returns.

https://talkmarkets.com/article/health-care-offers-the-highest-expected-returns-as-sp-500-targets-15-gain-1783258175

Surging profits estimates raise fear of earnings bubble.

https://giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/actions/redeem/5a6f496a-23ab-4bde-85a1-9b2660602179

Small cap stocks are having their biggest run in decades.

https://www.wsj.com/finance/stocks/russell-2000-small-stocks-gains-83fade43?st=ktmYfj&reflink=desktopwebshare_permalink

The diminishing case for dividend investing.

https://www.flyoverstocks.com/p/dividend-investing-is-dead

News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

What I am reading today

Phil Mickelson’s long history of misconduct.

https://www.skratch.golf/news/pro-golf/phil-mickelson-misconduct-women-madison-club-bridges-farms-exits

Visit Investing for Survival’s website (http://investingforsurvival.com/home) to learn more about our Investment Strategy, Prices Disciplines and Subscriber Service.

Wednesday, May 6, 2026

The Morning Call---Investing or gambling?

The Morning Call

5/6/26

The Market

Technical

Tuesday in the charts.

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/oil-yields-down-stocks-crypto-iran-truce-holds

Summary: A lack of escalation overnight combined with Hegseth's comments that "the ceasefire is not over," pushed oil prices down and left investors free to return to buying (tech) stocks with both hands and feet. Gold gained as the dollar dipped; bitcoin continued to rally amid ETF inflows. Memory stocks big gainers while some financials suffered as Anthropic release financial services templates. at the index level, sharply narrowing market breadth signals draw down risk, and elevated current positioning exacerbates that risk.

Tuesday in the technical stats.

https://www.barchart.com/stocks/momentum

https://www.barchart.com/stocks/market-performance

https://www.barchart.com/stocks/sectors/rankings

https://www.barchart.com/stocks/signals/new-recommendations

Bitcoin hits this technician’s target.

https://talkmarkets.com/article/bitcoin-hits-my-target-why-im-pivoting-to-these-altcoins-for-50-gains-1778001956

Wednesday morning setup: US equity futures are up big this morning and making fresh all-time highs, led by tech companies, while oil prices and bond yields fell sharply on optimism that the US and Iran are nearing a peace deal. As of 8:00am Nasdaq 100 futures jumped 1.7% while those for the S&P 500 gained 1%, with both gauges set to build on record highs. Iran is evaluating a new proposal from the US to end their near 10-week war, according to an Axios report. If Tehran accepts the terms, it will lead to a gradual reopening of Hormuz and lifting of the American blockade on Iranian ports. Brent tanked 11% to below $98 a barrel. That comes as US gasoline prices topped $4.50 a gallon for the first time since July 2022. The yield on 10-year Treasuries dropped eight basis points to 4.35%. In the UK, the rate on two-year UK gilts tumbled 17 basis points. The dollar hit the lowest level since February, while gold topped $4,700 an ounce. Bitcoin rose for a seventh straight day. US economic data calendar slate includes April ADP employment change at 8:15am. Fed speaker slate includes Musalem (9:30am) and Goolsbee (1pm)

Fundamental

Headlines

The Economy

Weekly mortgage applications declined 4.4% while purchase applications were down 3.7%.

Month to date retail chain store sales grew 7.8% versus +7.7% in the prior week.

March new home sales were up 8.9% versus estimates of +3.9%.

https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2026/05/05/new-home-sales-rise-as-median-price-hits-near-5-year-low

March new job openings (JOLTS) totaled 6.86 million versus projections of 6.83 million.

https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2026/05/05/jolts-report-job-openings-march-2026

The April services PMI came in at 51.0 versus consensus of 51.3; the April composite PMI was up 51.7 versus 52.0.

https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2026/05/05/sp-global-services-pmi-april-2026

The April ISM services index was 53.6 versus expectations of 53.7.

https://bonddad.blogspot.com/2026/05/economically-weighted-ism-services.html

The April ADP employment report showed job gains of 109,000 versus estimates of 99,000.

The May economic optimism index was 42.6 versus forecasts of 42.0.

International

The April Chinese final services PMI was 56.2 versus predictions of 52.0; the April final composite PMI was 53.1 versus 51.8; the April German final services PMI was 46.9, in line; the April final composite PMI was 48.4 versus 48.3; the April EU final services PMI was 47.6 versus 47.4; the April final composite PMI was 48.8 versus 48.6; the April UK final services PMI was 52.7 versus 52.0; the April final composite PMI was 52.6 versus 52.0.

Other

Economic charts of the week.

https://www.carsongroup.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/05/ChartsoftheWeekApr27-May1.pdf

The manufacturing sector is losing jobs.

https://mishtalk.com/economics/manufacturing-is-the-biggest-net-loser-in-jobs-5-quarters-total/

Oil reserves plunging at record pace.

https://giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/actions/redeem/094041ef-da83-4429-afdc-60983b672fa4

Farm bankruptcies jump 46% in 2025.

https://investigatemidwest.org/2026/02/25/farm-bankruptcies-jumped-46-in-2025-as-debt-loads-and-costs-rise/

Overnight News

The White House believes it's getting close to an agreement with Iran on a one-page memorandum of understanding to end the war and set a framework for more detailed nuclear negotiations.

Trump posts: If Iran agrees to deal, the blockade of the Hormuz Strait will be lifted. "If they don’t agree, the bombing starts, and it will be, sadly, at a much higher level and intensity than it was before. "

Donald Trump earlier said he would pause US efforts to move ships through the Strait of Hormuz as he seeks an agreement with Iran, citing “great progress.” The blockade on Iranian ports remains.

China Is Still Supplying Drone Factories in Iran, Russia Despite U.S. Sanctions. Obscure Chinese companies are openly shipping dual-use goods such as engines and batteries, defying American controls.

The US will implement its 25% tariffs on cars and trucks from the EU “relatively soon” if the bloc doesn’t swiftly ratify a long-delayed trade deal, the American ambassador to the bloc Andrew Puzder said.

Inflation

This week’s flare up in the Middle East doesn’t help with inflation worries.

https://www.capitalspectator.com/latest-middle-east-turmoil-revives-inflation-worries/

Banks are choking on AI debt.

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/banks-are-choking-ai-debt-bubble-has-started-burst

Summary: The cracks are increasingly visible just below the surface as investors are demanding more protection and more favorable pricing. On Thursday, an issuer tied to SoftBank Group had to raise the yield on its offering after struggling to attract demand. More ominously, issuers - especially in the junk-bond market - are getting so-called backstops from Alphabet’s Google, a covenant guaranteeing that a data center lease will be paid even if a tenant defaults. There are also provisions that place a ceiling on building costs. As Bloomberg notes, these latest developments all suggest an "undercurrent of anxiety" around a market that has held up well so far - but is still relatively new and untested. And with estimates that the AI buildout could cost up to $5 trillion, including over $1 trillion in spending by the government itself... . the size of the borrowings is guaranteed to balloon from here. “At the end of the day, these companies are selling a lot of debt and they’re going to have to pay up to borrow,” said Robert Tipp, head of global bonds at PGIM Fixed Income. “The market, after a spectacular narrowing in corporate spreads to historical tights, is seeing a wall of worry piled up before it.”

The Dollar

The dollar bear market is just getting started.

https://themarket.ch/english/the-dollar-bear-market-is-just-getting-started-ld.16111

Investing

There is gambling going on here.

https://alhambrapartners.com/weekly-market-pulse-theres-gambling-going-on-in-here/?src=news

What are markets discounting?

https://mrzepczynski.blogspot.com/2026/05/what-are-equity-markets-discounting-it.html

The Wall Street trap.

https://humbledollar.com/2026/05/wall-street-trap/

How not to invest in times of uncertainty.

https://behaviouralinvestment.com/2026/05/05/how-not-to-invest-during-times-of-uncertainty/

The best performing AI stocks.

https://www.riskhedge.com/outplacement/the-3-best-performing-ai-stocks-are

Berkshire’s cash at $397 billion.

https://talkmarkets.com/article/berkshires-cash-at-397-billion-and-nowhere-to-go-1777929292

The bond market is on edge.

https://wolfstreet.com/2026/05/04/bond-market-on-edge-treasury-yields-spike-30-year-to-5-03-mortgage-rates-to-6-52-as-gulf-war-reheats/

News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

What I am reading today

Remembering and rebuking the covid regime.

https://www.civitasoutlook.com/research/remembering-and-rebuking-the-covid-regime-a9528e4d-6ab9-48ba-b8c1-bf0bb9e3cac8

Visit Investing for Survival’s website (http://investingforsurvival.com/home) to learn more about our Investment Strategy, Prices Disciplines and Subscriber Service.

Wednesday, July 22, 2026

The Morning Call---The rapidly changing AI landscape

Tuesday, July 7, 2026

The Morning Call---Misreading the data on margin debt

Wednesday, May 6, 2026

The Morning Call---Investing or gambling?

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