The Morning Call--The recession started last year?

 

The Morning Call

 

9/10/25

 

The Market

         

    Technical

 

            Tuesday in the charts.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/market-recaps/bonds-bullion-bid-bls-bullhit-goldman-says-easy-money-has-been-made

 

                Tuesday in the technical stats.

            https://www.barchart.com/stocks/momentum

            https://www.barchart.com/stocks/sectors/rankings

            https://www.barchart.com/stocks/signals/new-recommendations

 

            The generals don’t lie.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/generals-dont-lie-last-time-spx-sold

 

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

 

                        US

 

Weekly mortgage applications were up 9.2% while purchase applications were up 6.6%.

 

Month to date retail chain store sales grew slightly faster than in the prior week.

 

August PPI came in at -0.1% versus estimates of +0.4%; core PPI was also -0.1% versus +0.4%.

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/producer-prices-unexpectedly-dropped-august-yoy-inflation-tumbles

 

The annual revision in nonfarm payrolls subtracted 911,000 from current employment.

                          https://talkmarkets.com/content/the-gold-standard-qcew-suggests-there-may-have-been-no-growth-at-all-in-jobs-so-far-this-year?post=521526

 

 

                        International

 

August Chinese CPI was 0.0% versus expectations of +0.3; August YoY PPI was -2.9% versus -3.0%.

 

                        Other

                       

                          The slowdown continues.

                          https://alhambrapartners.com/weekly-market-pulse-the-slowdown-continues/?src=news

 

                          New home prices drop closer to affordability.

                          https://politicalcalculations.blogspot.com/2025/09/new-home-prices-drop-closer-to.html

 

                          Update on big four recession indicators.

                          https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2025/09/08/the-big-four-recession-indicators

 

                          Update on consumer credit.

                          https://mishtalk.com/economics/consumer-credit-rebounds-16-0-billion-in-july-from-big-negative-revision/

 

            Monetary Policy

 

              The coming turmoil at the Fed.

              https://www.marketwatch.com/story/protect-your-money-from-the-turmoil-at-the-federal-reserve-dbb0a8d0?st=Kxy4cV

 

              Central planning is the problem.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/stockman-central-planning-problem

 

            Fiscal Policy

 

              The national debt doesn’t fund prosperity; it is a sign of it.

              https://www.realclearmarkets.com/articles/2025/09/09/37t_in_debt_doesnt_fuel_prosperity_its_an_overwhelming_sign_of_it_1133517.html

 

              Why Keynes’ economic theories failed.

              https://www.advisorperspectives.com/commentaries/2025/09/08/why-keynes-economic-theories-failed-reality

 

            Recession

 

Bloomberg chief economists says the US entered a recession in Q2 2024. Bear in mind this is one economist hinging her opinion on one datapoint; although it doesn’t mean she is wrong.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/bloomberg-chief-economists-stunning-admission-job-revisions-confirm-recession-started-mid

 

     Investing

 

            Equity duration and predictability.

            https://alphaarchitect.com/equity-duration/

 

            Goldman makes the case for commodities as a hedge.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/commodities/goldman-makes-case-commodities-macro-tail-hedge

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

Oracle press release (NYSE:ORCL): Q1 Non-GAAP EPS of $1.47 misses by $0.01.

Revenue of $14.93B (+12.3% Y/Y) misses by $110M.

 

What I am reading today

 

            Twelfth grade reading and math scores in US hit new low.

            https://www.wsj.com/us-news/education/test-scores-low-reading-math-naep-d87099b6?mod=hp_lead_pos5

 

 

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