Monday, September 29, 2025

Monday Morning Chartology---Year end melt up?

 

The Morning Call

 

9/29/25

 

The Market

 

The S&P had another disappointinig week, breaking the uptrend off its April low. Recall that it violated that uptrend three weeks ago, then re-established it the following week. This is not a big deal. It just means that (at least temporarily) the rate of ascent of the current uptrend is slowing. So, with the S&P (1) above all three DMAs and (2) in uptrends across all timeframes, it is way too soon to get negative.

 

That said, the upper boundary of its short term uptrend looms ever closer; and with valuations at near historic highs (and getting higher), I remain of the opinion that this is a market to trade not invest in long term. If you do, be sure to have close in stops.

 

Year-end melt up?

Is it too early to start talking about a year-end melt-up? | ZeroHedge

 

 

 


 

The bond market continue to be somewhat less than enthusiastic about the prospects for lower rates. While it remains above all three DMAs (1) they are very tightly bunched so it would not take much to push TLT below all three and (2) it is in downtrends across all timeframes. I raised the question two weeks ago as to whether we were witnessing a major change in direction. I think that question still stands.

 

 

 


 

Gold continued its rally, although the (lack of) recessionary signals and (lack of) inflation data raises doubts in my mind about its sustainability. Still it remains above all DMAs and in uptrends across all timeframes. So, I will continue to hold my GDX (remember it is a trade) until there is any sign of a rollover.

https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/golds-4k-magnet-etfs-roar-officials-keep-buying

 

 

 

The dollar rallied last week, finishing above both its 50 and 100 DMAs---both of which appear to be turning up. Could this be the end of the dollar’s decline? As always follow through is the key. Pending that follow through, I remain hard pressed to think that the worst is over.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/now-time-buy-dollar

 

 

 


 

            Friday in the charts.

            Stocks Surge As Dip-Buyers Emerge, Silver Soars To 11 Year High | ZeroHedge

 

            Ten charts for Monday morning.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/10-charts-you-need-know-monday-morning

 

            Friday in the technical stats.

            Stock Market Momentum & Daily Stock Activity - Barchart.com

            Stock Market Sectors & Stock Sector Finder - Barchart.com

            Today's New Stocks Trading Signals & Recommendations - Barchart.com

 

            The wall of worry.

            The Wall Of Worry: Melt-Up Now, Capital Destruction Later? | ZeroHedge

 

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

Last week’s stats were overwhelmingly upbeat as were the primary indicators (five plus, three neutral---one of which was an inflation datapoint). Overseas, the data was also very upbeat including the price data (one plus).

 

This was the second week in a row of positive numbers. But given the recent the weekly data seesawing between positive and negative, I am sticking with my ‘muddle through’ forecast.

 

On the other hand, the inflation numbers were again not reflective of a worsening in trend. This is the third week in a row of positive markers. Another couple of weeks in the upbeat trend and I will alter my outlook.

 

The point worth commenting from last week was the very strength of the stats, especially the primary indicators. They were certainly pointing to an economy that was stronger than one of ‘muddling through.’  Of course, that’s one week of data. So it is too soon to revise my forecast.

 

A warning from Lance Roberts.

https://talkmarkets.com/content/economics--politics/slowdown-signals-are-leading-indicators-flashing-red?post=525003

 

Another warning, but milder.

https://bonddad.blogspot.com/2025/09/august-personal-income-and-spending.html

 

What is somewaht surprising to me is that growth numbers could be so good at the same time as the inflation data is improving. Not that in normal circumstances that would be that unusual. But with the economy seemingly gaining strength at a time that it is near full capacity while the Fed is easing and the government is spending like a drunken sailor, it is at least confusing to me.

https://talkmarkets.com/content/feds-favorite-inflation-indicator-shows-no-sign-of-runaway-tariff-costs-as-savings-rate-slides?post=525014

 

But stats are what they are, and I have to respect them. As I noted above, I am on watch for amending my forecast. Although longer term, I remain skeptical that current monetary/fiscal policies will not prove inflationary.

 

                        US

 

                        International

 

The July Japanese leading economic indicators came in at 106.1 versus forecasts of 105.9.

 

The September EU economic sentiment index was 95.5 versus projections of 95.1; the industrial sentiment index was -10.3 versus -10.0; the services sentiment index was 3.6 versus 3.8; the consumer confidence index was -14.9, in line.

 

                        Other

 

                          Q2 per capita GDP.

                          https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2025/09/25/gdp-per-capita-q2-2025-third-estimate

 

            Fiscal Policy

 

              The courts strike a blow against the administrative state.

              https://www.realclearmarkets.com/articles/2025/09/26/the_courts_strike_a_blow_against_the_administrative_state_1137281.html

 

              The cost of removing illegal immigrants from the US.

              https://klementoninvesting.substack.com/p/the-cost-of-removing-illegal-immigrants

 

            Tariffs

 

              The safety of the nation depends on upholstered furniture.

              https://econbrowser.com/archives/2025/09/the-safety-of-the-nation-depends-on-upholstered-furniture-and-bathroom-vanities

 

     Investing

 

            2025 Q2 S&P earnings dashboard.

            https://talkmarkets.com/content/us-markets/sp-500-earnings-dashboard-25q2-friday-sep-26?post=525007

 

            The latest from BofA.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/hartnett-buckle-if-disorderly-unwind-short-dollar-trade

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

 

What I am reading today

 

           

 

 

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