The Morning Call
9/29/25
The
Market
The S&P had another disappointinig week,
breaking the uptrend off its April low. Recall that it violated that uptrend
three weeks ago, then re-established it the following week. This is not a big
deal. It just means that (at least temporarily) the rate of ascent of the
current uptrend is slowing. So, with the S&P (1) above all three
DMAs and (2) in uptrends across all timeframes, it is way too soon to get
negative.
That said,
the upper boundary of its short term uptrend looms ever closer; and with
valuations at near historic highs (and getting higher), I remain of the opinion
that this is a market to trade not invest in long term. If you do, be sure to
have close in stops.
Year-end
melt up?
Is
it too early to start talking about a year-end melt-up? | ZeroHedge
The bond market
continue to be somewhat less than enthusiastic about the prospects for lower rates.
While it remains above all three DMAs (1) they are very tightly bunched so it
would not take much to push TLT below all three and (2) it is in downtrends
across all timeframes. I raised the question two weeks ago as to whether we
were witnessing a major change in direction. I think that question still
stands.
Gold continued its
rally, although the (lack of) recessionary signals and (lack of) inflation data
raises doubts in my mind about its sustainability. Still it remains above all
DMAs and in uptrends across all timeframes. So, I will continue to hold my GDX
(remember it is a trade) until there is any sign of a rollover.
https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/golds-4k-magnet-etfs-roar-officials-keep-buying
The dollar rallied last week,
finishing above both its 50 and 100 DMAs---both of which appear to be turning
up. Could this be the end of the dollar’s decline? As always follow through is
the key. Pending that follow through, I remain hard pressed to think that the
worst is over.
https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/now-time-buy-dollar
Friday in the
charts.
Stocks
Surge As Dip-Buyers Emerge, Silver Soars To 11 Year High | ZeroHedge
Ten charts for Monday
morning.
https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/10-charts-you-need-know-monday-morning
Friday in the
technical stats.
Stock Market Momentum &
Daily Stock Activity - Barchart.com
Stock Market Sectors
& Stock Sector Finder - Barchart.com
Today's New
Stocks Trading Signals & Recommendations - Barchart.com
The wall of worry.
The
Wall Of Worry: Melt-Up Now, Capital Destruction Later? | ZeroHedge
Fundamental
Headlines
The
Economy
Last week’s stats
were overwhelmingly upbeat as were the primary indicators (five plus, three neutral---one
of which was an inflation datapoint). Overseas, the data was also very upbeat
including the price data (one plus).
This was the
second week in a row of positive numbers. But given the recent the weekly data
seesawing between positive and negative, I am sticking with my ‘muddle through’
forecast.
On the other hand,
the inflation numbers were again not reflective of a worsening in trend. This
is the third week in a row of positive markers. Another couple of weeks in the upbeat
trend and I will alter my outlook.
The point worth
commenting from last week was the very strength of the stats, especially the
primary indicators. They were certainly pointing to an economy that was
stronger than one of ‘muddling through.’
Of course, that’s one week of data. So it is too soon to revise my forecast.
A
warning from Lance Roberts.
Another warning,
but milder.
https://bonddad.blogspot.com/2025/09/august-personal-income-and-spending.html
What is somewaht
surprising to me is that growth numbers could be so good at the same time as
the inflation data is improving. Not that in normal circumstances that would be
that unusual. But with the economy seemingly gaining strength at a time that it
is near full capacity while the Fed is easing and the government is spending
like a drunken sailor, it is at least confusing to me.
But stats are what
they are, and I have to respect them. As I noted above, I am on watch for
amending my forecast. Although longer term, I remain skeptical that current
monetary/fiscal policies will not prove inflationary.
US
International
The July Japanese
leading economic indicators came in at 106.1 versus forecasts of 105.9.
The September EU
economic sentiment index was 95.5 versus projections of 95.1; the industrial sentiment
index was -10.3 versus -10.0; the services sentiment index was 3.6 versus 3.8;
the consumer confidence index was -14.9, in line.
Other
Q2 per capita GDP.
https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2025/09/25/gdp-per-capita-q2-2025-third-estimate
Fiscal
Policy
The courts strike a blow against the
administrative state.
The cost of removing illegal immigrants from
the US.
https://klementoninvesting.substack.com/p/the-cost-of-removing-illegal-immigrants
Tariffs
The safety of the nation depends on
upholstered furniture.
Investing
2025 Q2 S&P
earnings dashboard.
https://talkmarkets.com/content/us-markets/sp-500-earnings-dashboard-25q2-friday-sep-26?post=525007
The latest from BofA.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/hartnett-buckle-if-disorderly-unwind-short-dollar-trade
News on Stocks in Our Portfolios
What
I am reading today
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