The Morning Call---Powell's last chance

 

The Morning Call

 

9/17/25

 

The Market

         

    Technical

 

            Tuesday in the charts.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/market-recaps/dollar-dives-ahead-powell-bonds-bitcoin-bullion-bid

 

                Tuesday in the technical stats.

            https://www.barchart.com/stocks/momentum

            https://www.barchart.com/stocks/sectors/rankings

            https://www.barchart.com/stocks/signals/new-recommendations

 

            The latest from JP Morgan’s desk.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/when-fed-cuts-stocks-all-time-highs-sp-always-higher-one-year-later

 

            The latest from Goldman’s desk.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/forget-fomo-meet-fobi-market-top-goldman-traders-asks-where-are-bulls

 

            Margin debt rises to record high.

            https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2025/09/16/margin-debt-finra-rises-new-record-high-august-2025

 

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

 

Weekly mortgage applications surged 29.7% while purchase applications were up 3.0%.

 

August industrial production rose 0.1% versus estimates of 0.0%; capacity utilization was 77.4%, in line.

                          https://talkmarkets.com/content/august-industrial-production-overall-neutral-trend-continues?post=522984

 

August housing starts fell 8.5% versus expectations of down 3.4%; preliminary building permits were down 3.7% versus +0.6%

 

                          The September housing index was 32 versus consensus of 33.

                          https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2025/09/16/nahb-housing-market-index-builder-confidence-september-2025

 

                        International

The August Japanese trade balance was -Y242.5 billion versus projections of -Y450.0 billion.

 

August UK CPI came in at +0.3%, in line; core CPI was also +0.3%. also in line.

                       

                          August EU CPI was +0.1% versus forecasts of +0.2%.

 

                        Other

 

                          Update on big four recession indicators.

                          https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2025/09/16/recession-indicators-industrial-production-august-2025

 

            Monetary Policy

 

              The danger of Fed credibility under assault.

              https://econbrowser.com/archives/2025/09/the-danger-of-fed-credibility-under-assault

 

              Powell’s last chance.

                          https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/powell-reforms-could-spare-fed-further-damage-in-final-months-of-term-by-mohamed-a-el-erian-2025-09

 

            Fiscal Policy

 

              This is an interesting take on how the national debt gets paid off.

              https://www.realclearmarkets.com/articles/2025/09/16/basic_market_logic_tells_us_the_middle_class_wont_pay_off_the_national_debt_1134663.html

 

The cons of eliminating the quarterly reporting requirement for public companies. (the lead comments on other sins of corporate favoritism is a bit too radical for me; but I think that the portion of the article dealing directly with the quarterly reporting requirement makes good points.)

https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2025/09/trump-to-give-ceos-even-more-power-versus-investors-via-ending-quarterly-reporting-other-anti-transparency-measures.html

 

              Counterpoint.

              https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2025-09-16/quarterly-earnings-reports-trump-may-be-right?srnd=homepage-americas&sref=loFkkPMQ

 

            Recession

 

              Latest US recession probability.

              https://politicalcalculations.blogspot.com/2025/09/us-recession-probability-as-fed-finally.html

 

              Update on Q3 nowcasts.

              https://www.capitalspectator.com/us-q3-gdp-report-still-on-track-to-report-slower-growth/

 

            Tariffs

 

Three things you should know about the new tariff revenues. (The obvious conclusion is not more tariffs but less spending)

https://www.cato.org/blog/three-things-you-should-know-about-record-tariff-revenue

 

 

     Investing

 

            Nuance in investment strategy.

            https://alhambrapartners.com/weekly-market-pulse-nuance-is-subtle/?src=news

 

            The current problem with corporate governance.

            https://www.nytimes.com/2025/09/15/opinion/stock-market-corporate-governance-ipo.html

 

            Passive investing continues to grow.

            https://www.apolloacademy.com/passive-investing-continues-to-grow/

 

            The 2025 state of the investor study.

            https://preview.thenewsmarket.com/Previews/FINP/DocumentAssets/701546.pdf

 

            The conundrum of tight credit spreads.

            https://behaviouralinvestment.com/2025/09/16/thinly-spread/

 

            Uranium stocks go nuclear.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/uranium-price-action-goes-nuclear-goldman-etf-desk

 

            Analyst predicts monster move in bitcoin and ethereum.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/crypto/bitcoin-ether-could-make-monster-move-next-3-months-tom-lee

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

Mastercard (NYSE:MA) declares $0.76/share quarterly dividend, in line with previous.

 

What I am reading today

 

            Treasure from a ‘golden age’ pirate shipwreck.

            We’re still finding treasure from this ‘golden age’ pirate shipwreck | National Geographic

 

 

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