The Morning Call
9/4/25
The
Market
Technical
Wednesday in the
charts.
https://www.zerohedge.com/market-recaps/jolted-bonds-gold-crypto-soar-after-labor-market-meltdown
Wednesday in the technical stats.
https://www.barchart.com/stocks/momentum
https://www.barchart.com/stocks/sectors/rankings
https://www.barchart.com/stocks/signals/new-recommendations
Here comes the worst month of the year.
https://www.carsongroup.com/insights/blog/here-comes-the-worst-month-of-the-year-2/
Another take on
September seasonals (this was written on 8/28).
https://www.lpl.com/research/blog/so-long-sweet-summer-a-closer-look-at-september-seasonals.html
Bearish rising
wedge.
https://talkmarkets.com/content/etfs/bearish-rising-wedge?post=519813
Bond volatility
just screamed a warning.
https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/move-index-just-screamed-warning-did-you-hear-it
Fundamental
Headlines
The
Economy
US
Weekly jobless claims totaled 237,000 versus
projections of 232,000.
https://www.zerohedge.com/personal-finance/initial-jobless-claims-rise-highest-june
Month to date
retail chain store sales grew at the same pace as the prior week.
Final Q2 nonfarm
productivity was up 3.3% versus forecast of up 2.4%; unit labor costs were up
1.0% versus +1.6%.
The July trade
balance was -$78.3 billion versus expectations of -$75.7 billion.
July job openings
(JOLT report) totaled 7.18 million versus consensus of 7.3 million. This report
drew a lot of attention. So, I include several analyses.
https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2025/09/03/jolts-report-job-openings-july-2025
https://bonddad.blogspot.com/2025/09/the-soft-landing-scenario-in-jolts.html
https://mishtalk.com/economics/the-unemployment-level-is-now-greater-than-job-openings/
July factory
orders fell 1.3% versus predictions of -1.1%; ex transportation, they were up 0.6%
versus +0.3%.
The August ADP
private payrolls report showed job increases of 54,000 versus estimates of
65,000.
https://www.zerohedge.com/personal-finance/adp-employment-report-disappoints-august
August light vehicle
sales totaled 16.1 million versus projections of 16.0 million.
International
July EU PPI was up
0.4% versus forecasts of +0.5%; July EU retail sales declined 0.5% versus -0.1%.
The August EU
construction PMI was 46.7 versus expectations of 45.0; the August German
construction PMI was 46.0 versus 46.4; the August UK construction PMI was 45.5
versus 45.0.
August UK new car sales
were down 2.0%. in line.
Other
The linkages between the US and Europe.
https://www.apolloacademy.com/linkages-between-the-us-and-europe/
July median household income.
https://politicalcalculations.blogspot.com/2025/09/median-household-income-in-july-2025.html
Nowcast ‘core GDP’ decelerates.
https://econbrowser.com/archives/2025/09/nowcasted-core-gdp-decelerates
Chaos reigns and the economy suffers.
Monetary
Policy
Stop worrying about the Fed.
https://www.morningstar.com/markets/7-reasons-stop-freaking-out-over-fed
What the yield curve is telling us.
https://alhambrapartners.com/weekly-market-pulse-the-sound-of-silence/?src=news
Bond market uneasy over fiscal profligacy.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/global-yield-curve-steepening-betrays-unease-fiscal-excess
The Fed released its
latest Beige Book report showing little change in current trends---meaning flat
to declining consumer spending.
https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2025/09/feds-beige-book-little-or-no-change-in.html
Fiscal
Policy
Government funding deadline in one
month---here we go again.
Geopolitics
Xi’s meeting with Putin and Kim.
Investing
The positive
argument for the government taking a stake in Intel.
The philosophy of investing.
https://www.advisorperspectives.com/commentaries/2025/09/02/philosophy-of-investing
Behind Q2’s bumper
earnings.
https://www.wsj.com/business/earnings-cost-cutting-productivity-e022418a?mod=economy_lead_pos3
Navigating a bubble.
https://www.zerohedge.com/personal-finance/valuations-are-extreme-navigating-bubble
The latest from Goldman’s
top strategist.
News on Stocks in Our Portfolios
Goldman Sachs
Group Inc. will invest as much as $1 billion in T. Rowe Price Group Inc. and
team up with the asset manager to sell private-market products to retail
investors.
What
I am reading today
NASA’s
Jupiter probe leaves stunning legacy.
Living
your ideals.
https://traderfeed.blogspot.com/2025/08/living-your-ideals.html
Quote
of the day.
https://cafehayek.com/2025/09/quotation-of-the-day-5122.html
Visit Investing
for Survival’s website (http://investingforsurvival.com/home)
to learn more about our Investment Strategy, Prices Disciplines and Subscriber
Service.
No comments:
Post a Comment