The Morning Call---The key is the absense of recession

 

The Morning Call

 

9/19/25

 

The Market

         

    Technical

 

            Friday in the charts.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/market-recaps/bonds-gold-dumped-crypto-stocks-pumped-hawkish-hangover-hits

 

                Friday in the technical stats.

            https://www.barchart.com/stocks/momentum

            https://www.barchart.com/stocks/sectors/rankings

            https://www.barchart.com/stocks/signals/new-recommendations

 

            Stocks love falling bond volatility.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/kill-bond-volatility-move-crashes-spx-feeds

 

            The latest from Goldman’s desk.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/3-months-left-you-have-buy-junk-top-goldman-trader-sees-fomo-trumping-everything

 

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

 

The August leading economic indicators were down 0.5% versus consensus of -0.1%.

 

                        International

 

                          August German PPI fell 0.5% versus projections of +0.1%.

 

August UK retail sales were up 0.5%, in line; ex fuel, they were up 0.8% versus +0.5%.

 

                        Other

 

                          Unemployment claims likely to continue higher.

                          https://bonddad.blogspot.com/2025/09/jobless-claims-continue-higher-yoy-trend.html

 

            Overnight News

House Speaker Johnson said he believes they have the votes to pass the stopgap funding bill, while US Senate Majority Leader Thune said the Senate will also vote on a House stopgap bill on Friday.

 

BOJ kept rates unchanged at 0.50%, as widely expected, with the decision made by a 7-2 vote in which Board members Takata and Tamura proposed a 25bps rate hike. Nonetheless, the central bank surprised markets with the announcement to begin selling its ETF and J-REIT Holdings at a pace of JPY 330bln per year and JPY 5bln per year, respectively, with the decision on ETF and J-REIT sales made by unanimous vote, while it stated the pace of sales may be modified at future MPMs after the start of ETF and J-REIT disposals, based on fundamental principles and experience from sales conducted. BoJ also stated that Japan's economy is recovering moderately, although some weakness has been seen and noted that private consumption has been resilient and inflation expectations have risen moderately, but exports and output remain more or less flat as a trend. Furthermore, it stated that Japan's economic growth is likely to slow due to the impact of trade policies on global growth, but re-accelerate, and Japan's underlying inflation to stagnate due to a slowdown in economic growth, but gradually accelerate thereafter.

 

            Monetary Policy

 

              The Fed’s rate cut prompts increase in inflation fears.

              https://www.marketwatch.com/story/inflation-fears-surge-to-highest-since-liberation-day-as-fed-cuts-rates-abe9778f?st=aBerRQ

 

              Parsing the ‘dot plot’.

              https://wolfstreet.com/2025/09/17/this-fed-meeting-must-have-been-a-circus/

 

              Time to repeal the Fed’s ‘dual mandate’?

              https://www.ft.com/content/0fdb84da-8cc5-46d7-84be-e9488752edd7

 

            Fiscal Policy

 

              The moral decay of debt.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/personal-finance/moral-decay-debt

 

            Tariffs

 

              Why trade with China is important.

              https://www.realclearmarkets.com/articles/2025/09/18/to_keep_us_safe_from_china_trump_must_allow_chinese_goods_in_1134588.html

 

              More on the constitutional issue surrounding the Trump tariffs.

              https://reason.com/2025/09/17/house-republicans-just-voted-to-give-even-more-tariff-power-away-to-trump/

 

              Trump’s aluminum tariffs kill jobs.

              https://mishtalk.com/economics/trumps-aluminum-tariffs-kill-jobs-and-put-america-last/

 

     Investing

 

            The AI bazooka.

            https://investorplace.com/hypergrowthinvesting/2025/09/say-hello-to-the-400-billion-ai-bazooka-aimed-at-the-market/

 

There is a lot of interesting data in this article regarding economic/Market performance during rate hiking and rate cutting cycles, though the conclusion is hardly useful.

https://blogs.cfainstitute.org/investor/2025/09/17/when-the-fed-cuts-lessons-from-past-cycles-for-investors/

 

            Here is a similar one.

            https://www.nytimes.com/2025/09/18/business/stocks-fed-rate-cut.html

 

            The key is the absence of recession.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/ruling-out-recession-threat-next-investors

 

            Should you invest in the S&P?

            https://www.advisorperspectives.com/commentaries/2025/09/18/dissecting-s-p-500-should-invest

 

                The Market still expects lower yields, but………...

            https://www.capitalspectator.com/markets-still-expect-lower-yields-after-fed-rate-cut/

 

                The latest from Ed Yardini.

            https://talkmarkets.com/content/stocks--equities/how-the-roaring-2020s-could-send-the-sp-500-to-10000?post=523489

 

                The great stock repricing.

            (1) The Great Stock Re-pricing - by Arnold Kling - In My Tribe

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

Williams-Sonoma (NYSE:WSM) declares $0.66/share quarterly dividend, in line with previous.

 

Kroger (NYSE:KR) declares $0.35/share quarterly dividend, in line with previous.

 

FedEx press release (NYSE:FDX): Q1 Non-GAAP EPS of $3.83 beats by $0.22.

Revenue of $22.2B (+2.8% Y/Y) beats by $550M.

 

What I am reading today

 

           

 

 

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